Big 12 Fantasy Stats Preview

    
November 3rd, 2008

 

This is the third of six annual statistical projections of BCS conference starters. The lineups are based on the Starting Fives series of articles released two weeks ago, along with a couple of changes due to recent developments.

 

For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's Big 12 Stats Projection. Here's last year's Kansas projections compared to reality:

 

Kansas Projected vs 2007-08 Reality

G Russell Robinson - 9, 3, 5    vs   7, 3, 4
G Mario Chalmers - 14, 3, 3  vs  13, 3, 4
G Brandon Rush - 16, 6, 3  vs  13, 5, 2
F Darrell Arthur - 13, 6, 1  vs  13, 6, 1
F Sasha Kaun - 7, 5, 1  vs  7, 4, 1

 

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes. My biggest misses are always guys who either win or lose starting spots unexpectedly.


THE BIG 12

 

BAYLOR

G Tweety Carter - 9, 2, 4
G Henry Dugat - 11, 4, 2
G Curtis Jerrells - 15, 5, 4
G LaceDarius Dunn - 16, 4, 2
F Kevin Rogers - 14, 9, 1
6 Quincy Acy - 8, 4, 1

Notes: Dunn averaged 13.6 ppg in only 22 mpg, so he could go off for more than the projected 16 if he sees substantially more minutes.


COLORADO

G Cory Higgins - 11, 4, 3
G Nate Tomlinson - 8, 3, 4
F Jermyl Jackson-Wilson - 8, 4, 1
F Austin Dufault - 11, 5, 1
F Casey Crawford - 7, 4, 1
6 Toby Veal -  8, 5, 1

Notes: There's so much uncertainty with these numbers, because there's so much uncertainty about Colorado's playing rotation. Higgins is the only sure thing. Dufault has been getting praise from Bzdelik, but its hard to know exactly how much he'll bring to the table.

IOWA STATE

G Diante Garrett - 9, 3, 4
G Lucca Staiger - 12, 3, 2
F Craig Brackins - 14, 6, 1
F Jamie Vanderbeken - 9, 4, 1

F Alex Thompson - 5, 5, 1
6 Bryan Peterson - 6, 2, 3

Notes: Brackins is the leading returning scorer at 11 ppg, while ISU's other feature scorers might be newcomers Staiger and Vanderbeken.

KANSAS
G Sherron Collins - 13, 3, 5

G Travis Releford - 9, 2, 2
G Mario Little - 12, 3, 3
F Markieff Morris - 9, 5, 1
F Cole Aldrich - 11, 8, 1
6 Marcus Morris - 7, 4, 1

Notes: Look for Kansas to have a well-balanced attack like usual, with a lot of guys pushing double-digits. Collins projected numbers are what I projected for him last year, but he never saw the minutes I expected.

KANSAS STATE

G Jacob Pullen - 15, 2, 4
G Denis Clemente - 12, 3, 3

F Dominque Sutton - 7, 5, 1
F Jamar Samuels - 7, 5, 1
F Ron Anderson - 8, 7, 1
6 Darren Kent - 8, 4, 2

Notes: Pullen & Clemente will score, but can any of the unproven forwards emerge as go-to guys? I'm guessing no.

MISSOURI

G Miguel Paul - 9, 3, 4
G JT Tiller - 10, 3, 2
G Matt Lawrence - 8, 4, 1
F DeMarre Carroll - 14, 7, 1
F Leo Lyons - 17, 7, 2
6 Zaire Taylor - 6, 2, 2

Notes: Playing 30 mpg, Lyons has a chance to put up some of the Big 12's best numbers.  Paul's numbers depends on whether he retains the starting PG role or Taylor wins out.

NEBRASKA

G Cookie Miller - 7, 3, 5
G Ade Dagundrup - 12, 4, 2
G Ryan Anderson - 10, 5, 2
F Alex Chapman - 8, 5, 1
F Alonzo Edwards - 7, 6, 1
6 Steve Harley - 8, 3, 2

Notes: Its hard to imagine any individual player lighting it up for Nebraska, as they should have a well-balanced attack that includes some other incoming shooters (McCray & Richardson) that will contribute.

OKLAHOMA

G Willie Warren - 16, 4, 4
G Austin Johnson - 10, 3, 3
G Tony Crocker - 10, 3, 3
F Taylor Griffin - 10, 6, 1
F Blake Griffin - 17, 10, 2
6 Omar Leary - 6, 2, 2

Notes: Taylor Griffin might actually see a bigger statistical bump that his brother Blake. Warren is the real deal, and will lead the team in scoring on many a night.

 

OKLAHOMA STATE

G Byron Eaton - 14, 3, 5
G Terrel Harris - 11, 4, 1
G James Anderson - 16, 4, 1
G Obi Muonelo - 9, 4, 1
C Ibrahima Thomas - 9, 7, 1
6 Keiton Page - 7, 2, 2

Notes: I expect to see more of the James Anderson that started last season so well. Eaton really picked up his production as the season went on. 

 

TEXAS

G AJ Abrams - 18, 3, 3
G Justin Mason - 9, 4, 3
F Damion James - 16, 10, 2
F Gary Johnson - 10, 6, 1
F Connor Atchley - 13, 7, 1
6 Dogus Balbay - 6, 2, 4

Notes: Even if Balbay does become the starting PG, I don't expect much more than those numbers. James, Johnson, and Atchley should all improve by 3 ppg.

 

TEXAS A&M

G Donald Sloan - 12, 4, 3
G Derrick Roland - 8, 3, 2
G Josh Carter - 14, 4, 2
F Bryan Davis - 12, 6, 1
F Chinemelu Elonu - 6, 6, 1
6 David Loubeau - 9, 5, 1

Notes: If Carter gets back above 40% from three, he could really pour it on this year. Davis could be one of the Big 12's most improved players.

 

TEXAS TECH

G John Roberson - 14, 4, 3
G Alan Voskuil - 13, 4, 2
G Mike Singletary - 12, 5, 2
F Trevor Cook - 8, 4, 1
C Esmir Rizvic - 6, 4, 1
6 Damir Suljagic - 7, 5, 1

Notes: Singletary steps into the starting spot left by Martin Zeno, and should see the biggest increase in production.

 

Projected Big 12 Leaders

 

Top PPG
1) AJ Abrams (18)
2) Blake Griffin (17)
3) Leo Lyons (17)

 

Top RPG
1) Blake Griffin (10)
2) Damion James (10)

3) Kevin Rogers (9)

 

Top APG
1) Collins/Eaton/Miller (5)

 

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