Big East Stats Projection: 08-09

    
October 31st, 2008

 

This is the second of six annual statistical projections of BCS conference starters. The lineups are based on the Starting Fives series of articles released two weeks ago, along with a couple of changes due to recent developments.

 

For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's Big East Stats Projection. Here's last year's UCONN projections compared to reality:

 

UCONN Projected vs 2007-08 Reality

G AJ Price - 14, 3, 5   vs  14, 4, 6
G Jerome Dyson - 14, 4, 3  vs  13, 4, 2
F Stanley Robinson - 10, 6, 1  vs 10, 7, 1
F Jeff Adrien - 15, 10, 1   vs   15, 9, 1
C Hasheem Thabeet - 10, 8, 0  vs  11, 8, 0

*This might have been my best work of the whole series

 

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes. My biggest misses are always guys who either win or lose starting spots unexpectedly.


THE BIG EAST

CINCINNATI

G Deonta Vaughn - 16, 4, 4
G Cashmere Wright - 11, 3, 3*
F Rashad Bishop - 10, 5, 2
F Yancy Gates - 10, 5, 1
F Mike Williams - 6, 6, 1
6 Anthony McClain - 5, 6, 0

Notes: Vaughn's production might drop because some of the newcomers will help ease the pressure on him. Bishop's numbers could double from last year.

 

*Wright tore his ACL and will miss the season. The projected replacement is Larry Davis - 9, 2, 2


UCONN

G AJ Price - 14, 3, 5
G Jerome Dyson - 14, 3, 2 
F Craig Austrie - 7, 2, 3
F Jeff Adrien - 14, 9, 1
C Hasheem Thabeet - 13, 10, 1
6 Kemba Walker - 9, 3, 3

Notes: I don't see major fluctuations from last year's numbers, except for Thabeet who should become a double-double guy. When (if?) Stanley Robinson returns, he'll change the team's dynamics and be a double-digit scorer.

DEPAUL

G Will Walker - 12, 3, 2
G Jabari Currie - 7, 2, 5
G Dar Tucker - 17, 5, 2
F Mac Koshwal - 14, 9, 1

C Matija Poscic - 5, 5, 1
6 Krystopher Faber - 8, 6, 1

Notes: Tucker becomes the Demons go to scorer, while Koshwal is a better player than last year's mediocre numbers suggest.

GEORGETOWN

G Chris Wright - 9, 3, 4
G Jessie Sapp - 10, 4, 3
F Austin Freeman - 13, 4, 3
F DaJuan Summers - 14, 7, 2
F Greg Monroe - 12, 8, 1
6 Julian Vaughn - 6, 4, 1

Notes: Monroe is the big unknown here. Can the freshman come in and light it up like many expect?  Sapp has averaged similar numbers the last two seasons.

LOUISVILLE

G Andre McGee - 8, 3, 3
G Jerry Smith - 10, 3, 2
F Terrence Williams - 13, 7, 6
F Earl Clark - 14, 8, 2
C Samardo Samuels - 13, 8, 1
6 Edgar Sosa - 10, 2, 3

Notes: Like Georgetown above, Samuels is the big unknown amongst a bunch of well-known commodities. Amongst the returnees, only Clark should see a serious boost in PPG. Sosa could be one the highest scoring reserves in the country, and should bounce back after a disappointing season.

MARQUETTE

G Dominic James - 14, 4, 5
G Jerel McNeal - 14, 5, 4
G Wesley Matthews - 12, 4, 2
F Lazar Hayward - 15, 7, 1
F Dwight Burke - 5, 6, 1
6 David Cubillan - 7, 2, 3

Notes: With a lot of seniors on this list, there's nothing too exciting about these projections. The only real changes from last year is that I think Haward takes on an even bigger role. James numbers have actually decreased every season, but they should bounce back from last year's lows.


NOTRE DAME

G Tory Jackson - 10, 5, 7
G Kyle McAlarney - 17, 3, 4
F Ryan Ayers - 8, 4, 1
F Zach Hillesland - 8, 7, 1
C Luke Harangody - 20, 11, 2
6 Luke Zeller - 8, 4, 1

Notes: I doubt Harangody improves on last year's sick numbers, as defenses will work extra hard to shut him down. Jackson and  McAlarney should see their scoring totals rise.

PITTSBURGH

G Levance Fields - 13, 5, 6
G Jermaine Dixon - 10, 3, 2
F Gilbert Brown - 11, 4, 2
F Sam Young - 17, 7, 2
F DeJuan Blair - 14, 10, 1
6 Tyrell Biggs - 7, 5, 1

Notes: Brown will see his numbers jump as he takes over for Mike Cook. Fields has improved every season, and should see an up-tick across the board.

 

PROVIDENCE

G Sharaud Curry - 12, 3, 4
G Jeff Xavier - 15, 3, 3
F Brian McKenzie - 10, 3, 2
F Geoff McDermott - 12, 8, 5
F Randall Hanke - 11, 6, 1
6 Weyinmi Efejuku - 10, 3, 2

Notes: Curry's return should offset any possible statistical gains for McKenzie & Efejuku.  Xavier should become the teams leading scorer, while Hanke will score double digits so long as he gets 25 mpg.

RUTGERS

G Anthony Farmer - 10, 3, 2
G Corey Chandler - 15, 4, 2
G Mike Rosario - 11, 4, 5
F JR Inman - 11, 6, 1
C Hamady Ndiaye - 7, 7, 1
6 Mike Coburn - 8, 3, 3

Notes: Newcomer Rosario should put up solid numbers, but won't light up the scoring sheet. His addition should help Chandler score with more ease. Inman's production probably plateaued.

SETON HALL

G Eugene Harvey - 15, 4, 5
G Paul Gause - 10, 3, 3
G Jeremy Hazell - 12, 2, 1
F Robert Mitchell - 13, 5, 2

C John Garcia - 9, 7, 1
6 Jordan Theodore - 8, 3, 3

Notes: Mitchell averaged 16 ppg at Duquesne, but probably will settle for less this year. Harvey's numbers dropped across the board, but expect his ppg to go up as his efficiency will increase even if his minutes drop.

SOUTH FLORIDA


G Chris Howard - 10, 4, 6
G Dominique Jones - 15, 5, 3
G Mike Mercer - 13, 4, 3
F Mobolaji Ajayi - 6, 6, 1
F Alejandro (Alex) Rivas Sanchez - 7, 7, 1
6 Jesus Verdejo - 9, 3, 3

Notes: Mercer should put up the type of numbers he did at Georgia, and will take some of the pressure off of Jones. 

ST. JOHN'S

G Malik Boothe - 5, 3, 4
G Quincy Roberts - 9, 3, 4

F DJ Kennedy - 10, 6, 1
F Anthony Mason Jr - 15, 5, 2
F Justin Burrell - 10, 7, 1
6 Paris Horne - 8, 3, 1

Notes: Nothing too exciting to mention here. Roberts, a freshman could be forced to score more than I've projected.

SYRACUSE

G Jonny Flynn - 14, 3, 6
G Eric Devendorf - 18, 4, 3
G Paul Harris - 16, 7, 3
F Kristof Ongenaet - 7, 6, 1
F Arinze Onuaku - 12, 9, 1
6 Andy Rautins - 9, 3, 2

Notes: Without Greene hogging the ball, Harris and Devendorf should see their numbers rise. Flynn should hopefully see less minutes, and thus I expect a slight decrease in the scoring department.

VILLANOVA

G Scottie Reynolds - 17, 3, 4
G Corey Stokes - 12, 3, 2
F Antonio Pena - 9, 5, 1
F Shane Clark - 7, 5, 1
C Dante Cunningham - 12, 7, 1
6 Corey Fisher - 10, 3, 4

Notes: Stokes will be the one guy whose numbers pop, otherwise there will only be subtle changes across the board. Dwayne Anderson will be a 7th player whose numbers rival those of Pena and Clark.

WEST VIRGINIA

G Joe Mazzulla - 9, 4, 4
G Alex Ruoff - 13, 4, 3
F Devin Ebanks - 15, 6, 3
F Wellington Smith - 7, 4, 1
F De'Sean Butler - 15, 7, 2
6 John Flowers - 8, 4, 1

Notes: Ebanks is the big addition, and will be the Big East's top freshman by the numbers.  Butler should see increases across the board now that Alexander is out of the picture.

 

Projected Big East Leaders

 

Top PPG
1) Luke Harangody (20)
2) Eric Devendorf (18)
3) McAlarney/Reynolds/Tucker (17)

 

Top RPG
1) Luke Harangody (11)
2) Hasheem Thabeet (10)

3) DeJuan Blair (10)

 

Top APG
1) Tory Jackson (7)
2) Fields/Flynn/Howard/Williams (6)

 

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