2006 NBA Draft Statistical Projection Recap

    
June 1st, 2007

Every season, I project the future statistics of top NBA prospects. Before I get to this season's first projections for the 2007 prospects, I wanted to take a look back at 2006. Overall, I projected very meek stats for last year's class, and my lack of confidence turned out to be right. There just wasn't too much excitement. Luckily on the most part, my projections were pretty solid.

Last year's stats.
http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/Draft/2006stats.htm

PLAYER - PPG - RPG - APG - vs - Actual Stats
LaMarcus Aldridge - 11,5,2 vs 9,5,0
Maurice Ager - 4,2,1 vs 2,1,0
Hilton Armstrong - 6,5,1 vs 3,3,1
Renaldo Balkman - 5,3,1 vs 5,4,1
Andrea Bargnani - 7,4,2 vs 12,4,1
Josh Boone - 4,3,1 vs 4,3,0
Ronnie Brewer - 8,3,2 vs 5,1,0
Denham Brown - 5,3,1 vs DNP
Shannon Brown - 5,3,2 vs 2,10
Rodney Carney - 8,3,2 vs 7,2,1
Mardy Collins - 4,2,2 vs 5,2,2
Paul Davis - 4,3,1 vs 2,1,0
Quincy Douby - 8,3,2 vs 3,1,0
Jordan Farmar - 4,2,2 vs 4,2,2
Randy Foye - 9,4,4 vs 10,3,3
Joel Freeland - 3,2,1 vs DNP
Rudy Gay - 8,4,2 vs 11,5,1
Bobby Jones - 4,2,1 vs 3,1,0
Solomon Jones - 3,3,1 vs 3,2,0
Kyle Lowry - 6,3,3 vs 6,3,3
Adam Morrison - 13,4,2 vs 12,3,2
David Noel - 3,2,1 vs 3,2,1
Steve Novak - 5,2,1 vs 2,1,0
Patrick O'Brient - 5,3,1 vs 2,1,1
Oleksiy Pecherov - 3,2,1 vs DNP
Kosta Perovic - 3,3,1 vs DNP
JJ Redick - 11,3,2 vs 6,1,1
Sergio Rodriguez - 4,2,2 vs 4,1,3
Rajon Rondo - 5,3,2 vs 6,4,4
Brandon Roy - 12,5,2 vs 17,4,4
Mouhamed Saer Sene - 3,3,1 vs 2,2,0
Thabo Sefolosha - 5,2,1 vs 4,2,1
Cedric Simmons - 7,4,1 vs 3,3,0
Craig Smith - 4,3,1 vs 7,5,1
Tyrus Thomas - 8,7,1 vs 5,4,1
PJ Tucker - 4,3,1 vs 2,1,0
Marcus Vinicius - 3,2,1 vs 2,1,0
Marcus Williams - 7,3,3 vs 7,2,3
Shawne Williams - 7,3,2 vs 4,2,1
Shelden Williams - 9,6,1 vs 6,5,1

All Stats Correct: Jordan Farmar (4,2,2 vs 4,2,2), Kyle Lowry (6,3,3 vs 6,3,3), David Noel (3,2,1 vs 3,2,1)
2 of 3 Stats Correct: Renaldo Balkman (5,3,1 vs 5,4,1 actual), Josh Boone (4,3,1 vs 4,3,0), Mardy Collins (4,2,2 vs 5,2,2), Thabo Sefolosha (5,2,1 vs 4,2,1), Marcus Williams (7,3,3 vs 7,2,3)
All Stats Within 1 Besides Above: Rodney Carney (8,3,2 vs 7,2,1), Randy Foye (9,4,4 vs 10,3,3), Bobby Jones, Solomon Jones, Adam Morrison (13,4,2 vs 12,3,2), Sergio Rodriguez, Mohamed Saer sene, Marcus Vinicius.

Best Projections: Nailing Farmar and Lowry's numbers were nice but a bit of a fluke. The more minutes and numbers a guy puts up, the harder it is to equal the actual stats. For that reason, the projections of Marcus Williams (off by barely a rebound a game), Randy Foye, and Adam Morrison above are better indications of my success. Overall, with the few exceptions noted below, I had everybody in the range that they finished.. and putting guys in the right band is ultimately what I'm trying to achieve.

Worst Projections: The worst projection was Sacramento's Quincy Douby. He only had 4 units of production (pts, rbs, asts) as compared to my lofty 13 total. JJ Redick was another big underperformer. I projected 11,3,2 but he only put up 6,1,1.. basically half of expected production. Forwards Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons also did worse than expected. Armstrong was projected at 12 units but only had 7, while Simmons was projected at 12 but only had 6. Andrea Bargnani and Brandon Roy surpassed my expectations, especially in terms of scoring average. Bargnani averaged an impressive 12 ppg last year compared to 7 ppf projection. Roy popped in 17 a game, compared to my 12.

Check back in a few days for the 2007 statistical projections.