Bracketology: NC State In, Miami Out, Duke a #1?

    
March 10th, 2012

2:00 AM Saturday: Bracketology projections will be coming fast and furious right up until Selection Sunday, expect another update later Saturday. With Cal falling in the Pac-12 tournament, one of Arizona or Colorado will win the conference, effectively stealing a bid from a bubble team. The unfortunate squad was fellow Pac-12 school Washington. This is not because the committee will actively cap the Pac-12's bids at two, but because the Huskies RPI fell to 68th and they didn't beat a Top 100 RPI team in non-conference play.

 

NC State also replaced Miami in the field. Besides beating Virginia today, NC State has two wins over Miami which certainly helps. Northwestern remains the last team, while Drexel the first out. At the top of the bracket, Duke regained a #1 seed, giving the ACC two #1 seeds. This is quite controversial, but when you look at the season in total, Duke's wins over the likes of Michigan St, Kansas, Michigan, and UNC stack up with anybody. Cincinnati also moved into the final 7 spot, jumping 2 seeds thanks to the win over Syracuse. The Orange remain the 2nd overall team despite the loss.

 

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close. 

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

 

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs. Locked Up Bid.

 

 

ONE

Kentucky**

Syracuse

North Carolina

Duke**

 

TWO

Missouri**

Michigan St**

Kansas

Ohio State

 

THREE

Baylor

Marquette

Michigan

Wisconsin

 

FOUR

Indiana

Georgetown

Murray St**

Wichita St

 

FIVE

Florida St

Louisville 

Florida

Creighton**

SIX

Vanderbilt

Saint Mary's**

Temple

San Diego St**

 

SEVEN

UNLV

Memphis**

New Mexico

Cincinnati**

 

EIGHT

Gonzaga

Notre Dame

Saint Louis**

Iowa St

 

NINE

Alabama

Purdue

Kansas St

UCONN

 

TEN

Harvard**

Southern Miss

VCU**

California

 

ELEVEN

West Virginia

Virginia

Colorado St

Texas

 

TWELVE

Xavier

Long Beach**

Arizona**

BYU

 

THIRTEEN + 2

Seton Hall / NC State

Tennessee / Northwestern

Belmont**

Nevada**

 

FOURTEEN

Davidson**

South Dakota St**

Akron**

Montana**

 

FIFTEEN

Loyola (MD)**

Long Island**

Lehigh**

Detroit**

 

SIXTEEN + 2

UNC-Asheville**

Lamar**

Stony Brook** / Mississippi Valley St**

Western Kentucky** / Norfolk St**

 

Last In: Northwestern, Tennessee, NC State, Seton Hall

 

First Out: Drexel, Miami, South Florida, Ole Miss

Further Four: Mississippi St, Iona, Washington, Dayton

 

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Miami, Washington

New (at-large): NC State

 

 

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

 

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

 

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

 

America East - Stony Brook
A-10 - Saint Louis
ACC - Duke
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - San Diego St
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Arizona
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - Nevada
WCC - Saint Mary's

 

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.