Bubble Board 3/13: Almost There..
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.
The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Sunday afternoon
Top 4 Rising teams*: Georgia Tech, Minnesota, San Diego St, Wake Forest
Top 4 Falling teams: South Florida, Dayton, Marquette, Ole Miss
*Based on difference between yesterday's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: UCONN, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita St, California
Top 5 Dangerous teams: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Utah St, Florida St
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
None (I've left on some of the fringe bubble teams for comparison's sake.)
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
Out: South Florida
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. The 19th & 20th teams (Missouri & Florida) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU or UAB. (There are 15 champs already with bids, 5 more one-bid leagues yet to be decided, 25 other at-large locks (listed below), and 2 other champions on the BubbleBoard.. leaving 18 spots.)
|Team||RPI||SOS||NCSOS||Computer||T50 W||T50 L||R/N W||R/N L||L100 L||Bonus =||Total =||Was||Dif|
|7||San Diego St||24||55||120||20||3||5||10||7||2||6||-14||-34||20|
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams Not Listed (25): Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
Interesting how sometimes a team can be idle yet rise/fall in the #'s substantially. South Florida for example took a hit because a lot of there losses (ND & Marquette) now count as Top 50 losses.. this actually slots them more appropriately on the board. Similarly, Wake Forest jumps because some of their formerly bad ACC losses (Miami & NC State) now have moved into the Top 100 and don't look so bad.
UAB & VCU continue to hang strong in the BubbleBoard, despite their lack of chance at making the Dance. Thus Florida is really the last team in. The BubbleBoard favors Rhode Island over Illinois & Ole Miss. Note the strong push Minnesota is making. A win by the Gophers (or Illinois for that matter) may very well push them into the field, most likely at the expense of Florida. Mississippi St, who is considered a potential tourney team, is very little respected here. The win over Florida didn't do that much in the #'s because the Gators are fading themselves.
What do you think about the Bubble today?