Bubble Board 3/7: Ranking the Bubble Teams
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.
The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Tuesday.
Top 5 Rising teams*: UTEP, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Wichita St, Old Dominion
Top 5 Falling teams: Cincinnati, Rhode Island, Dayton, UAB, Missouri
*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: Cincinnati, California, UCONN, Minnesota, Dayton
Top 5 Dangerous teams: UTEP, Clemson, UNLV, St Mary's, Florida St
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
Richmond moved to at-large "locks."
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
In: South Florida
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 29 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 20 teams with room to make the tournament.
|Team||RPI||SOS||NCSOS||Computer||T50 W||T50 L||R/N W||R/N L||L100 L||Bonus =||Total =||Was||Dif|
|14||San Diego St||33||60||123||26||2||5||8||7||2||-9||-35||-37||2|
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
After a promising start to the season, Dayton's completely played their way out of the tourney, going .500 in A10 play and losing 5 of their last 7. The same can be said for fellow A10 team Rhode Island, who lost a pair of weak road games to sub-150 teams St Bonaventure & UMASS in the finals weeks. The BubbleBoard still respects Rhode Island's season-long accomplishments enough to keep them in the deserving group, but the reality is that the committee won't be nearly as kind as the computers.
As usual, since the committee will not take VCU & Northeastern no matter how much the computers like them, I've added the lightly shaded row to highlight the realistic final deserving team, which today is Notre Dame. The BubbleBoard has little respect of probable tournament teams Illinois & Marquette, instead favoring Ole Miss & South Florida. South Florida is an interesting team, 9-9 in Big East play with 3 Top 50 wins is quite on par with the likes of Marquette, UCONN, Notre Dame, etc (if not better) but for whatever reason they don't get much respect nationally. This is probably a case of brand-name bias coming through.. the computers though don't know one team from another.
Amazing how Georgia Tech is so closed to the bubble after being touted as a Top 25 for much of the season.