Bubble Watch: Colorado St, Oregon Making Noise

    
January 18th, 2012 by Shawn Siegel
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Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament.

 

This week's notes: Florida St and Memphis return to the field of 68 again after stints earlier in the year. FSU was strongly aided by their win over UNC, while Memphis makes it due to their strong standing in the computer rankings. Arizona and Virginia Tech dropped out this week. Tech dropped over 40 spots in the RPI in just one week due to their 3rd straight loss. Minnesota and Colorado St, who barely registered on the bubble watch last week now have to be considered serious players. Pittsburgh has fallen completely out of the picture. Southern Miss relinquished the CUSA lead to Marshall, but still hangs on to an at-large bid.

 

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI KenPom Sagarin AP
  10 Cincinnati BE 14-4 107 46 58  32
  11 Texas B12 12-5 62 26 44  
11 Xavier A10 12-5 41 45 57  
  11 Saint Louis A10 14-4 59 17 34  
  12 Southern Miss CUSA 16-3 15 68 38  
  12 Northwestern B10 12-5 25 47 41  38
  12 BYU WCc 16-4 44 20 27  
12 Florida St ACC 12-6 49 29 37 38
13 Memphis CUSA 12-5 28 27 26  
  13 Iowa St B12 12-5 51 44 49  
Bubble                
    Minnesota B10 14-5 36 48 51  
    NC State ACC 13-5 58 49 56  
    Arkansas SEC 13-5 80 83 77  
    Arizona P12 12-6 63 55 63  
    Colorado St MWC 13-4 22 92 68  
  Oregon P12 13-5 50 94 78  
    Northern Iowa MVC 13-6 30 61 55  
    St. Joseph's A10 12-6 53 60 60  
  Virginia Tech ACC 11-6 82 51 67  

 

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Pittsburgh

 

 

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI KenPom Sagarin AP
  11 Marshall CUSA 13-4 33 64 53  
  12 Iona MAAC 14-4 34 54 48  37
  13 Middle Tennessee SB 17-2 66 41 35  
Bubble                
13 Oral Roberts SUM 16-4 45 58 46  
  13 Long Beach St BW 12-6 56 57 52  
   14 Belmont ASUN 13-6 84 34 50  
   14 Nevada WAC 15-3 70 97 81  
  14 Davidson SoCo 12-4 43 72 59  

 

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: none


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