BubbleBoard 2/10: Ranking the Bubble Teams

    
February 10th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 2/10/10, 2:00 pm.

 

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a challeging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.

 

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: UCONN, Arizona, Louisville, Texas Tech, California

Top 5 Dangerous teams: UNLV, St Mary's, Rhode Island, UAB, William & Mary

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Texas A&M, Maryland, Northeastern, Richmond, Texas Tech

Top 5 Falling teams: Seton Hall, Arizona, Wichita St, Florida St, Xavier

*Based on difference seen previous week's BubbleBoard

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

New Mexico was moved to the lock category. Illinois, Notre Dame, Washington, Louisiana Tech, and Virginia added to teams tracked.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Teams with Total points approaching 0 or above are virtual locks to make the Tourney if it started today. However, note the two CAA teams (VCU, William & Mary) that perform not only quite well in the RPI, but particularly well here. Seems unlikely either will make the tourney as an at-large bid based on what you hear from "bracketologists" but perhaps they are being under-appreciated? (If you assume those 2 will NOT make the tourney as of now, the next 2 teams would be Northeastern (another CAA team) and Illinois. If you assume N'Eastern would be excluded like the above teams, Notre Dame becomes the last in.)

 

Maryland & South Florida move into the yellow at-large area, while Seton Hall & Wichita St fall out.

 

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 20 teams with room to make the tournament.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 14 58 3 8 1 8 1 0 97 94 79 15
1 Rhode Island 15 73 31 13 2 2 9 2 0 29 16 20 -4
2 UNLV 32 99 203 30 4 2 9 2 1 45 15 1 14
3 UAB 30 102 106 26 1 0 9 3 0 28 2 11 -9
4 Texas A&M 19 12 52 13 4 5 4 6 0 14 1 -29 30
5 Richmond 31 66 65 23 3 2 6 5 1 22 -1 -19 18
6 Saint Mary's 44 141 63 34 2 2 9 1 0 31 -3 -5 2
7 Baylor 28 30 145 22 3 3 6 4 1 18 -4 11 -15
8 William & Mary 51 84 43 34 3 2 8 5 1 27 -8 -19 11
9 VCU 56 134 102 42 3 0 5 5 2 25 -17 -22 5
10 Dayton 34 39 19 22 3 5 5 5 1 3 -19 -32 13
11 Xavier 26 19 21 16 3 6 4 7 0 -4 -20 -2 -18
12 Charlotte* 45 151 195 40 3 5 9 4 0 19 -20 -17 -3
13 Missouri 46 77 205 36 4 4 4 5 1 16 -20 -7 -13
14 Oklahoma St 36 29 142 26 3 5 5 6 0 6 -20 -7 -13
15 Old Dominion 35 70 14 24 2 3 6 7 1 2 -22 -17 -5
16 Florida St 37 52 209 30 2 4 6 4 1 2 -28 -8 -20
17 South Florida 49 43 214 36 2 3 7 5 1 8 -28 -42 14
18 Clemson 41 38 133 29 2 4 6 5 1 0 -29 -28 -1
19 Maryland 42 33 132 29 2 4 4 5 0 0 -29 -56 27
20 Ole Miss 39 60 98 28 1 4 7 4 1 -6 -34 -32 -2
21 Northeastern* 54 62 8 33 2 3 8 6 3 -1 -35 -55 20
22 Illinois 65 82 139 45 4 4 5 7 2 10 -35 X X
23 Notre Dame 59 68 219 44 3 2 2 5 2 7 -37 X X
24 Utah St* 48 104 126 36 1 1 5 5 2 -2 -38 -40 2
25 Cincinnati 53 20 61 32 3 6 3 7 0 -7 -39 -39 0
26 Washington 52 47 36 32 2 2 0 6 2 -11 -43 X X
27 California 25 1 1 14 0 4 4 7 1 -30 -44 -44 0
28 San Diego St 38 54 127 28 1 4 6 6 2 -17 -46 -34 -12
29 Florida   55 89 214 42 2 5 6 4 1 -4 -46 -44 -2
30 Tulsa 60 147 212 48 1 1 4 5 1 1 -47 -44 -3
31 UTEP* 58 108 182 44 1 3 5 3 1 -4 -48 -55 7
32 Mississippi St 72 150 242 56 2 2 7 6 2 7 -49 -37 -12
33 Texas Tech 29 16 93 20 1 7 3 6 0 -32 -51 -68 17
34 Louisiana Tech 73 242 324 64 1 1 8 4 1 13 -52 X X
35 Wichita St 50 142 321 46 2 2 6 6 4 -6 -52 -30 -22
36 Virginia Tech 63 236 345 59 1 2 6 4 0 7 -52 -63 11
37 Seton Hall 64 8 171 41 3 7 2 6 0 -13 -54 -28 -26
38 Minnesota 62 36 59 38 2 5 3 7 1 -17 -55 -55 0
39 Louisville 43 5 20 25 1 6 2 5 1 -32 -56 -41 -15
40 Northwestern 67 79 255 50 1 5 4 4 0 -14 -64 -52 -12
41 Marquette 61 57 213 44 2 6 4 6 2 -23 -67 -51 -16
42 UCONN 57 9 12 32 1 5 1 7 2 -37 -70 -55 -15
43 Arizona 69 11 7 39 1 5 4 8 3 -37 -75 -53 -22
44 Virginia   91 109 296 66 2 3 3 4 3 -10 -76 X X
45 North Carolina 79 22 104 48 2 7 2 7 1 -30 -78 -71 -7

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Texas

 

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.