BubbleBoard 2/17: Ranking the Bubble Teams

    
February 17th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 2/17/10, 2:00 pm.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a challeging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Virginia Tech, Baylor, UCONN, Richmond, Old Dominion

Top 5 Falling teams: Notre Dame, Northeastern, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: Texas Tech, Arizona, North Carolina, California, Seton Hall

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Baylor, Richmond, UNLV, UAB, VCU

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Georgia Tech moved off of the lock category, and back onto the BubbleBoard. Arizona St & Memphis added to team's tracked.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Cincinnati, Utah St, Virginia Tech

Out: Maryland, Ole Miss, South Florida

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Virginia Tech is this week's big mover, with a road win, a win over fellow bubble team Virginia and a 3rd win over "lock" team Wake Forest. On the down-side, Notre Dame lost to mediocre Seton Hall & St. John's. Also, their 2 wins over South Florida no longer count as Top 50 wins as the Bulls struggled and dropped from 49th to 55th in the RPI. Baylor is seemingly on the verge of being a lock, however their 5 remaining games are all against Top 100 teams, and 3 are on the road, meaning multiple losses are not out of the question. Georgia Tech, having lost 3 of 5, and sitting at .500 in the ACC, can no longer be considered a sure thing. Their game against Maryland this Saturday now has major bubble implications for both teams. UCONN & Louisville obviously got boosts from their big Top 10 league wins, but according to the #'s below, both still have some work to do.

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 24 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 13 46 3 8 1 9 1 0 100 97 94 3
1 Baylor 28 24 124 21 5 3 7 4 1 42 21 -4 25
2 Richmond** 27 49 66 20 4 3 9 5 0 39 19 -1 20
3 Texas A&M 18 6 48 12 5 6 5 6 0 21 9 1 8
4 Georgia Tech 29 14 110 20 5 5 5 7 0 25 5 X X
5 UNLV 35 58 202 29 4 4 9 3 1 32 3 15 -12
6 Rhode Island 22 37 30 15 2 4 9 3 0 16 1 16 -15
7 UAB 36 91 93 28 1 0 9 3 0 28 0 2 -2
8 Old Dominion** 40 96 17 28 4 3 7 7 1 25 -2 -22 20
9 Dayton 34 33 23 21 4 5 5 6 1 11 -10 -19 9
10 Saint Mary's 46 113 70 34 2 3 9 3 0 22 -12 -3 -9
11 William & Mary 48 86 45 33 3 3 9 5 2 19 -14 -8 -6
12 Xavier 21 19 16 13 3 6 5 7 0 -2 -15 -20 5
13 Clemson 32 31 135 24 3 5 6 5 1 5 -19 -29 10
14 VCU 63 134 102 45 3 0 5 5 2 25 -20 -17 -3
15 Oklahoma St 38 36 142 28 3 5 5 6 0 6 -22 -20 -2
16 Charlotte 41 117 169 35 3 6 9 5 0 12 -23 -20 -3
17 Virginia Tech 44 180 344 46 2 2 7 4 0 20 -25 -52 27
18 Cincinnati 52 18 53 31 4 6 4 8 0 5 -27 -39 12
19 Missouri 47 63 193 36 4 5 4 6 1 9 -27 -20 -7
20 Florida St 43 53 216 34 3 5 6 5 1 5 -29 -28 -1
21 Utah St** 45 107 113 34 1 1 7 5 2 3 -31 -38 7
22 San Diego St 37 75 140 29 2 4 7 6 2 -4 -34 -46 12
23 South Florida 55 45 232 40 2 3 7 6 1 6 -34 -28 -6
24 Louisville 30 5 21 17 2 6 3 6 1 -20 -38 -56 18
25 UTEP** 56 133 178 44 1 2 6 3 1 4 -40 -48 8
26 Ole Miss 51 68 118 36 1 4 7 4 1 -6 -42 -34 -8
27 Maryland 42 28 134 29 2 6 4 6 0 -13 -42 -29 -13
28 California** 23 2 1 13 0 4 4 7 1 -30 -43 -44 1
29 Illinois 71 79 145 48 4 5 5 7 2 4 -44 -35 -9
30 Wichita St 49 130 322 45 2 2 6 6 3 -1 -46 -52 6
31 Washington 53 44 40 33 2 3 1 7 2 -16 -49 -43 -6
32 UCONN 50 1 6 28 3 6 2 8 2 -21 -49 -70 21
33 Louisiana Tech 76 253 328 67 1 1 10 4 1 18 -49 -52 3
34 Tulsa 67 129 212 51 1 1 4 5 1 1 -50 -47 -3
35 Florida   64 76 174 45 2 6 6 4 1 -9 -54 -46 -8
36 Northeastern 60 94 15 39 2 4 9 7 5 -16 -55 -35 -20
37 Marquette 59 71 221 44 3 6 4 6 2 -12 -56 -67 11
38 Arizona St 65 73 84 43 1 4 4 5 1 -16 -58 X X
39 Memphis 58 74 71 38 1 5 5 4 2 -22 -60 X X
40 Mississippi St 62 109 234 48 1 3 7 6 3 -14 -62 -49 -13
41 Seton Hall 57 16 151 37 2 8 2 6 0 -29 -66 -54 -12
42 Northwestern 74 79 255 54 1 5 4 4 0 -14 -68 -64 -4
43 Texas Tech 39 8 76 24 1 9 3 7 0 -44 -69 -51 -18
44 Notre Dame 78 72 210 54 1 3 2 6 1 -17 -71 -37 -34
45 Minnesota 80 39 64 48 2 5 3 8 2 -24 -72 -55 -17
46 North Carolina 81 12 77 48 3 10 2 8 1 -38 -86 -78 -8
47 Arizona 86 26 14 49 1 5 4 8 4 -42 -91 -75 -16
48 Virginia   96 102 302 69 2 5 3 6 3 -25 -93 -76 -17

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas

 

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.