BubbleBoard 2/24: Ranking the Bubble Teams

    
February 24th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 2/24/10, 2:00 pm.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Florida, UCONN, Utah St, Maryland, Richmond

Top 5 Falling teams: Georgia Tech, Wichita St, Dayton, Ole Miss, Baylor

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: Notre Dame, California, Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Northeastern

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, UNLV, St. Mary's, UAB, Louisiana Tech

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Texas A&M moved into the "lock" category. (Richmond is on the verge of joining them next week.) St Louis added to teams tracked on the list, while Arizona, North Carolina, Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Virginia are no longer tracked as the Bubble tightens up.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: UCONN, UTEP, Maryland

Out: Charlotte, Virginia Tech (extra in team based on conference champion status of another team)

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

UCONN's success in the past has obviously been well-documented, and it shows as they move from the brink right back firmly on the bubble. They're the last team, which is impressive when you consider they were about 25 teams out 2 weeks ago. Florida also picked up a big win over Tennessee last night, and although the BubbleBoard doesn't love the Gators, it helped them move into legitimate contention. Richmond is on the verge of becoming a lock, and I arguably could have taken them off the list. However, they do have 3 challenging league games remaining and they are in the A-10, so you never know what the committee will do with a non-BCS team. However, so long as they win one of the remaining games, they'll be fine. Interesting that the BubbleBoard is not imrpessed with Big East teams on the most part. Marquette is just 3-7 against Top 50 teams and 4-6 on the road, while Louisville is 2-6 against top 50 teams and a similar 4-6 on the road. Sure, these teams have a few nice wins (because of so many chances), but the BubbleBoard is not fooled by conference affiliation. On the flip-side, the BubbleBoard has been high on CAA teams all year. If you assume that the committee will not take VCU & William & Mary (although W&M is probably deserving), then Virginia Tech & Florida are really the last 2 teams in.

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do. (The 2 semi-shaded boxes represent the extended bubble if you consider that the committee would probably not take VCU and William & Mary, despite what the computers say about them).

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 21 45 3 8 1 9 1 0 100 97 97 0
1 Richmond** 25 81 63 20 5 2 9 5 0 55 35 19 16
2 Baylor 16 20 121 14 4 4 7 5 2 19 5 21 -16
3 UAB 32 98 101 26 1 0 10 3 1 25 -1 0 -1
4 Rhode Island 28 60 29 20 2 4 9 4 0 14 -5 1 -6
5 UNLV 44 75 209 35 4 4 9 4 2 25 -10 3 -13
6 Xavier 18 24 17 12 3 6 6 7 0 1 -11 -15 4
7 Saint Mary's 47 135 87 36 2 3 10 3 0 24 -12 -12 0
8 Utah St** 35 84 83 27 2 1 7 5 2 14 -13 -31 18
9 William & Mary 46 77 25 30 3 3 9 6 2 17 -14 -14 0
10 Oklahoma St 29 38 141 23 3 4 6 6 1 9 -14 -22 8
11 Old Dominion** 42 91 7 28 3 4 8 8 1 10 -18 -2 -16
12 Georgia Tech 30 13 113 21 4 6 5 8 1 2 -19 5 -24
13 Clemson 33 36 149 25 3 5 6 5 1 5 -20 -19 -1
14 Missouri 37 59 200 30 4 5 5 6 2 6 -24 -27 3
15 VCU 59 143 93 43 4 1 5 6 4 18 -25 -20 -5
16 Maryland 34 32 154 26 3 6 5 6 0 0 -25 -42 17
17 Dayton 43 37 20 26 3 5 5 7 1 -1 -28 -10 -18
18 Florida St 39 45 204 31 3 6 7 5 1 2 -29 -29 0
19 Cincinnati 56 15 57 34 4 6 4 8 0 5 -29 -27 -2
20 UTEP** 55 133 193 44 1 1 8 3 1 15 -29 -40 11
21 UCONN 41 2 5 23 4 6 3 8 2 -8 -31 -49 18
22 Virginia Tech 45 158 341 45 2 3 7 5 0 13 -32 -25 -7
23 Florida   48 55 158 35 3 6 7 5 1 2 -33 -54 21
24 San Diego St 38 80 122 29 2 4 7 6 2 -4 -34 -34 0
25 Charlotte 55 106 160 41 3 7 9 5 0 7 -35 -23 -12
26 Louisville 40 8 23 23 2 6 4 6 1 -18 -41 -38 -3
27 California** 23 3 1 13 0 4 5 8 1 -29 -42 -43 1
28 South Florida 69 57 241 49 2 3 7 6 1 6 -43 -34 -9
29 Louisiana Tech 66 253 328 61 1 1 10 4 1 18 -43 -49 6
30 Illinois 65 68 132 44 4 6 6 8 2 0 -44 -44 0
31 Washington 60 49 42 37 2 2 1 7 2 -10 -47 -49 2
32 Arizona St 57 78 68 38 1 4 5 5 1 -13 -51 -58 7
33 St Louis 82 142 222 60 3 1 4 7 3 8 -52 X X
34 Tulsa 75 129 212 55 1 1 4 5 1 1 -55 -50 -5
35 Memphis 62 109 75 43 1 4 6 4 2 -14 -56 -60 4
36 Seton Hall 51 14 150 34 3 9 3 7 0 -23 -57 -66 9
37 Minnesota 76 51 80 47 3 5 3 8 2 -13 -60 -72 12
38 Ole Miss 63 50 136 42 1 6 7 5 1 -19 -61 -42 -19
39 Marquette 61 63 212 44 3 7 4 6 2 -18 -62 -56 -6
40 Wichita St 50 139 299 45 1 3 6 7 3 -19 -64 -46 -18
41 Northeastern 78 90 9 48 2 4 9 7 6 -21 -69 -55 -14
42 Mississippi St 64 123 235 50 1 4 8 6 4 -22 -72 -62 -10
43 Notre Dame 81 69 192 55 1 4 2 8 2 -31 -86 -71 -15

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

 

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.