BubbleBoard 2/24: Ranking the Bubble Teams
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.
The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.
Top 5 Rising teams*: Florida, UCONN, Utah St, Maryland, Richmond
Top 5 Falling teams: Georgia Tech, Wichita St, Dayton, Ole Miss, Baylor
*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: Notre Dame, California, Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Northeastern
Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, UNLV, St. Mary's, UAB, Louisiana Tech
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
Texas A&M moved into the "lock" category. (Richmond is on the verge of joining them next week.) St Louis added to teams tracked on the list, while Arizona, North Carolina, Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Virginia are no longer tracked as the Bubble tightens up.
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
In: UCONN, UTEP, Maryland
Out: Charlotte, Virginia Tech (extra in team based on conference champion status of another team)
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
UCONN's success in the past has obviously been well-documented, and it shows as they move from the brink right back firmly on the bubble. They're the last team, which is impressive when you consider they were about 25 teams out 2 weeks ago. Florida also picked up a big win over Tennessee last night, and although the BubbleBoard doesn't love the Gators, it helped them move into legitimate contention. Richmond is on the verge of becoming a lock, and I arguably could have taken them off the list. However, they do have 3 challenging league games remaining and they are in the A-10, so you never know what the committee will do with a non-BCS team. However, so long as they win one of the remaining games, they'll be fine. Interesting that the BubbleBoard is not imrpessed with Big East teams on the most part. Marquette is just 3-7 against Top 50 teams and 4-6 on the road, while Louisville is 2-6 against top 50 teams and a similar 4-6 on the road. Sure, these teams have a few nice wins (because of so many chances), but the BubbleBoard is not fooled by conference affiliation. On the flip-side, the BubbleBoard has been high on CAA teams all year. If you assume that the committee will not take VCU & William & Mary (although W&M is probably deserving), then Virginia Tech & Florida are really the last 2 teams in.
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do. (The 2 semi-shaded boxes represent the extended bubble if you consider that the committee would probably not take VCU and William & Mary, despite what the computers say about them).
|Team||RPI||SOS||NCSOS||Computer||T50 W||T50 L||R/N W||R/N L||L100 L||Bonus =||Total =||Was||Dif|
|9||William & Mary||46||77||25||30||3||3||9||6||2||17||-14||-14||0|
|24||San Diego St||38||80||122||29||2||4||7||6||2||-4||-34||-34||0|
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M
As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.