BubbleBoard 3/1: Ranking the Bubble Teams

    
March 1st, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/01/10, 4:00 pm.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Thursday.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Notre Dame, Maryland, Northeastern, Xavier, Louisville

Top 5 Falling teams: UCONN, Old Dominion, VCU, Cincinnati, Memphis

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, UCONN, Wichita St, Memphis, Arizona St

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, Baylor, UNLV, St Mary's, Maryland

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Louisiana Tech & Tulsa no longer tracked.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Louisville

Out: UCONN

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Amazing what one week can do. UCONN went from being firmly in the bubble to almost 10 spots out after a disappointing home loss to Louisville. Maryland, Xavier, Baylor, and Clemson move into virtual "lock" status at this point, along with Richmond. I've left those teams on for reference at this point, as all would certainly make the tournament at this point. The same can be said for Oklahoma St. It will be extremely interesting to see what the committee does with projected league champions such as Utah St, Old Dominion, UTEP, and Cal. Except for Cal, the BubbleBoard thinks the prior 3 are tournament worthy and that Cal is firmly on the bubble. Would the committee take Utah St or Old Dominion as at-large teams if they lose their tournaments? We can only speculate.

 

Last week, Notre Dame was 20 spots out of the field, but the addition of two Top 50 teams puts them in much better position. If UCONN adds 1 more Top 50 win this week and moves up 8 spots in the RPI, they'd be in. In general, the BubbleBoard is not particularly impressed with the Big East bubble teams, with the exception of Louisville. UCONN, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall are a combined 12-28 against Top 50 teams, and 16-29 away from home. The BubbleBoard sees those 12 Top 50 wins as being a matter of simply getting so many bites of the apple at home, that eventually they've each pulled off some big wins. The BubbleBoard also disrespects Mississippi St, who is in many "Bracketology" fields. MSU has only 1 Top 50 win, yet they have 4 losses to teams below 100th.. a ratio that is far from tournament worthy.

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do. (The 2 semi-shaded boxes represent the extended bubble if you consider that the committee almost certainly will not take VCU and William & Mary, despite what the computers say about them).

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 19 41 3 8 2 9 2 0 92 89 97 -8
1 Richmond 28 73 72 22 5 2 9 6 0 53 32 35 -3
2 Baylor 11 28 129 12 5 4 8 5 2 32 20 5 15
3 Xavier** 12 24 17 9 5 7 7 7 0 19 10 -11 21
4 Maryland 25 23 159 20 4 5 6 6 0 19 -2 -25 23
5 Clemson 27 30 162 22 4 5 7 6 1 16 -6 -20 14
6 Oklahoma St 26 18 124 19 4 5 6 7 1 12 -8 -14 6
7 UAB 35 111 88 28 1 2 11 3 1 17 -12 -1 -11
8 UNLV 43 96 207 36 4 4 10 4 3 23 -13 -10 -3
9 Saint Mary's 45 142 73 35 2 3 10 3 1 19 -16 -12 -4
10 Rhode Island 37 68 27 25 2 4 9 5 1 8 -18 -5 -13
11 Utah St** 34 92 81 27 1 1 8 5 2 6 -21 -13 -8
12 William & Mary 60 107 23 40 3 3 9 6 2 17 -23 -14 -9
13 Louisville 32 5 19 19 3 6 5 6 1 -5 -23 -41 18
14 UTEP** 50 151 194 42 1 1 9 3 1 17 -25 -29 4
15 Georgia Tech 33 20 131 24 4 6 5 8 2 -3 -27 -19 -8
16 Missouri 36 49 195 29 4 6 5 7 2 -1 -30 -24 -6
17 Florida   48 59 130 34 3 6 7 6 1 0 -34 -33 -1
18 Dayton 41 37 22 25 3 6 5 8 1 -8 -34 -28 -6
19 Florida St 42 50 220 33 3 7 8 5 1 -1 -34 -29 -5
20 Old Dominion** 38 77 9 25 1 4 8 8 1 -11 -37 -18 -19
21 San Diego St 39 56 125 29 2 5 7 7 2 -12 -40 -34 -6
22 VCU 66 145 113 48 3 1 5 7 4 6 -42 -25 -17
23 Cincinnati 58 17 45 34 4 8 4 9 0 -8 -43 -29 -14
24 Virginia Tech 52 156 343 49 2 4 7 6 0 6 -43 -32 -11
25 South Florida 67 64 239 48 3 5 7 7 1 4 -44 -43 -1
26 California** 21 4 1 12 0 4 5 8 2 -34 -46 -42 -4
27 Charlotte 62 112 167 46 3 7 9 6 1 0 -46 -35 -11
28 Northeastern 72 82 10 44 3 3 10 7 6 -3 -47 -69 22
29 Marquette 49 67 202 37 3 7 7 6 2 -10 -48 -62 14
30 Illinois 73 64 118 48 4 6 6 8 2 0 -48 -44 -4
31 Ole Miss 55 65 150 39 2 7 8 5 1 -12 -50 -61 11
32 Washington 53 58 44 34 2 2 2 7 4 -18 -52 -47 -5
33 UCONN 44 2 6 25 3 8 3 8 2 -30 -54 -31 -23
34 Notre Dame 68 60 213 48 3 4 3 8 2 -7 -55 -86 31
35 Arizona St 54 74 77 36 1 5 6 6 2 -23 -59 -51 -8
36 St Louis 87 137 223 63 3 2 4 7 3 3 -60 -52 -8
37 Minnesota 70 38 74 43 3 6 4 8 3 -21 -64 -60 -4
38 Seton Hall 63 16 170 41 3 9 3 7 0 -23 -64 -57 -7
39 Mississippi St 56 128 235 46 1 4 9 6 4 -20 -66 -72 6
40 Memphis 64 98 66 43 1 5 6 5 3 -26 -69 -56 -13
41 Wichita St 51 138 301 46 1 3 6 8 4 -26 -71 -64 -7

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

 

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.