BubbleBoard 3/11: Ranking the NCAA Bubble Teams

    
March 11th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/11/10, 11:30 am.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Saturday.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Marquette, Oklahoma St

Top 5 Falling teams: Clemson, Missouri, Wichita St, Charlotte, Virginia Tech

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, Minnesota, UCONN, Arizona St, Louisville

Top 5 Dangerous teams: UTEP, Wake Forest, UNLV, Florida St, Utah St

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Old Dominion & St. Mary's are now conference champions.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Memphis

Out: Florida

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. (The peach shading represents the upper-echelon teams that have separated from the pack and are certain locks at this point, but left for reference. The 19th team (Georgia Tech) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU. (There are 13 champs already with bids, 7 more one-bid leagues yet to be decided, 25 other at-large locks (listed below), and 2 other champions on the BubbleBoard.. leaving 18 spots.

 

#

Team

RPI

SOS

NCSOS

Computer

T50 W

T50 L

R/N W

R/N L

L100 L

Bonus =

Total =

Was

Dif

 

Kansas

1

8

35

2

11

2

10

2

0

127

124

124

0

1

Wake Forest

32

27

82

22

6

5

6

7

2

28

6

-6

12

2

UTEP

39

120

196

35

3

1

9

3

1

38

4

2

2

3

Clemson

28

22

156

22

5

7

7

7

1

14

-8

7

-15

4

Utah St**

31

99

78

25

2

1

8

5

2

17

-9

-9

0

5

Florida St

35

44

218

29

4

6

9

5

1

18

-11

-10

-1

6

Oklahoma St

27

23

131

20

4

6

7

8

1

7

-13

-16

3

7

UNLV

48

119

224

40

4

4

10

4

3

23

-17

-14

-3

8

Rhode Island

41

97

32

29

2

4

9

6

2

1

-28

-36

8

9

UAB

40

87

103

30

1

5

11

4

1

-2

-32

-33

1

10

San Diego St

34

69

112

26

2

5

8

7

2

-9

-35

-35

0

11

South Florida

68

95

247

51

3

4

9

8

1

13

-38

-40

2

12

Ole Miss

57

85

146

41

2

5

9

5

1

2

-39

-37

-2

13

Virginia Tech

51

161

344

48

3

4

8

6

2

9

-40

-32

-8

14

Louisville

37

3

20

21

2

6

5

8

1

-19

-40

-35

-5

15

VCU

66

135

83

47

3

2

7

8

4

4

-43

-35

-8

16

Notre Dame

54

61

221

40

3

3

4

7

3

-3

-43

-44

1

17

Memphis

46

63

56

31

2

5

7

5

3

-13

-44

-45

1

18

Missouri

45

41

205

34

4

7

6

8

3

-11

-45

-34

-11

19

Georgia Tech

43

17

149

30

4

8

5

9

2

-16

-45

-40

-5

20

Washington

50

70

49

33

2

2

4

7

4

-13

-46

-44

-2

21

Northeastern

72

79

9

44

3

3

11

8

6

-2

-46

-44

-2

22

Florida  

53

34

120

35

3

8

7

7

1

-13

-48

-41

-7

23

Marquette

55

62

192

40

3

7

8

6

2

-8

-48

-51

3

24

California**

21

7

1

12

0

4

6

8

3

-37

-49

-43

-6

25

Dayton

49

31

22

29

3

7

5

9

2

-21

-50

-52

2

26

Seton Hall

59

35

171

40

3

8

6

7

0

-10

-50

-49

-1

27

Illinois

74

40

124

47

4

7

6

9

2

-8

-55

-54

-1

28

Cincinnati

60

16

43

35

3

9

6

10

0

-21

-57

-76

19

29

Arizona St

56

80

64

37

1

5

6

6

2

-23

-60

-53

-7

30

UCONN

64

4

8

36

3

7

3

11

2

-30

-65

-63

-2

31

Wichita St

44

106

299

40

1

4

8

9

4

-28

-68

-56

-12

32

Charlotte

76

100

154

52

3

9

9

7

2

-18

-71

-59

-12

33

Mississippi St

67

114

220

51

1

4

9

7

4

-22

-72

-74

2

34

Minnesota

77

49

72

47

3

6

4

9

5

-33

-80

-79

-1

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams Not Listed (25): Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

There's a real separation forming between UNLV and Rhode Island. The teams above UNLV have really proven to be tourney worthy.. everyone below is really a mess. The #'s favor Rhode Island, UAB, and South Florida (and VCU) despite the lack of buzz those teams have gotten in "bracketology" projections. On the flip side, Florida, Marquette, and Illinois are given little respect here.

 

Georgia Tech's tumble continues as the Jackets barely hang in the field. The #'s suggest Georgia Tech & Dayton are extremely similar teams, with similar RPI's, the same amount of bad losses (2), the same record away from home (5-9). GT does have 1 more Top 50 win, yet Dayton has a win over Georgia Tech. If GT enters the tournament with a seed above 12, and Dayton doesn't even make it (if they finish in similar fashion), it would be an interesting case of perhaps BCS bias coming in.

 

What do you think about the Bubble today?