BubbleBoard 3/12: Ranking the NCAA Bubble Teams

    
March 12th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/12/10, 12:30 am.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Saturday.

  

 

Top 3 Rising teams*: Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgia Tech

Top 3 Falling teams: Memphis, Arizona St, Wake Forest

*Based on difference between yesterday's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, UCONN, Arizona St, Minnesota, Wichita St

Top 5 Dangerous teams: UTEP, UNLV, Wake Forest, Utah St, Florida St

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Northeastern no longer tracked (this is long overdue.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Marquette, Washington

Out: Memphis, Missouri

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble.  The 19th team (Washington) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU. (There are 14 champs already with bids, 6 more one-bid leagues yet to be decided, 25 other at-large locks (listed below), and 2 other champions on the BubbleBoard.. leaving 18 spots.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
  Kansas 1 8 35 2 11 2 11 2 0 129 127 124 3
1 UTEP 39 120 196 35 3 1 10 3 1 41 6 4 2
2 Wake Forest 37 27 82 25 6 5 6 8 3 21 -3 6 -9
3 Utah St** 30 99 78 25 2 1 9 5 2 19 -6 -9 3
4 Florida St 34 44 218 28 4 6 9 5 1 18 -11 -11 0
5 Clemson 33 22 156 25 5 7 7 8 1 12 -12 -8 -4
6 UNLV 50 119 224 42 4 4 11 4 3 25 -16 -17 1
7 Oklahoma St 27 23 131 20 4 7 7 9 1 0 -21 -13 -8
8 Notre Dame 43 61 221 34 4 3 5 7 3 10 -24 -43 19
9 Rhode Island 41 97 32 29 2 4 9 6 2 1 -28 -28 0
10 Marquette 46 62 192 35 4 7 9 6 2 5 -30 -48 18
11 San Diego St 32 69 112 25 2 5 8 7 2 -9 -34 -35 1
12 Ole Miss 56 85 146 40 2 5 9 5 1 2 -38 -39 1
13 South Florida 69 95 247 51 3 4 9 8 1 13 -39 -38 -1
14 UAB 45 87 103 33 1 5 11 4 2 -7 -40 -32 -8
15 Louisville 38 3 20 22 2 6 5 8 1 -19 -41 -40 -1
16 Virginia Tech 53 161 344 50 3 4 8 6 2 9 -41 -40 -1
17 Georgia Tech 40 17 149 28 4 8 6 9 2 -13 -41 -45 4
18 VCU 65 135 83 46 3 2 7 8 4 4 -42 -40 -2
19 Washington 49 70 49 32 2 2 5 7 4 -10 -43 -46 3
20 Missouri 44 41 205 33 4 7 6 8 3 -11 -44 -45 1
21 Florida   52 34 120 34 3 8 8 7 1 -10 -45 -48 3
22 California** 20 7 1 11 0 4 7 8 3 -34 -46 -49 3
23 Seton Hall 60 35 171 41 3 8 6 7 0 -10 -51 -50 -1
24 Dayton 51 31 22 31 3 7 5 9 2 -21 -51 -50 -1
25 Memphis 55 63 56 36 2 5 7 6 4 -20 -55 -44 -11
26 Illinois 77 40 124 49 4 7 6 9 2 -8 -56 -55 -1
27 Cincinnati 59 16 43 35 3 9 6 11 0 -23 -58 -57 -1
28 UCONN 66 4 8 37 3 7 3 11 2 -30 -66 -65 -1
29 Wichita St 42 106 299 39 1 4 8 9 4 -28 -67 -68 1
30 Arizona St 61 80 64 40 1 5 6 7 3 -30 -70 -60 -10
31 Charlotte 76 100 154 52 3 9 9 7 2 -18 -71 -71 0
32 Mississippi St 67 114 220 51 1 4 9 7 4 -22 -72 -72 0
33 Minnesota 73 49 72 45 3 6 5 9 5 -30 -76 -80 4

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams Not Listed (25): Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Amazing how much a couple games can change thing. Notre Dame & Marquette's recent surge has moved them from the edge of the bubble into firm standing. On the flip-side, Memphis blew a golden chance yesterday to Houston, and now tumbles out of the BubbleBoard for the first time in weeks. (Also Arizona St moves from on the fringe to the basement after a weak loss to Stanford.) Interesting how little the numbers respect Missouri, who now has 3 loses to sub-100 teams. In terms of over-respect perhaps, the #'s still like UAB despite their recent struggles. The problem for UAB is not that they've lost a ton of bad games, just that they haven't stepped up in the challenging ones.

 

If we assume UAB & VCU will not make it despite what the #'s say, that would push Washington & Missouri back in. That leaves South Florida & Rhode Island as the two teams in the BubbleBoard that don't get much human hype.. in place of Florida & Illinois that get pub from the "experts." If URI beats St Louis tonight, they will have a great claim to deserving a tournament bid.

 

What do you think about the Bubble today?