BubbleBoard 3/4: Ranking the NCAA Bubble Teams
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.
The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Sunday.
Top 5 Rising teams*: Memphis, Florida St, Notre Dame, Clemson, Utah St
Top 5 Falling teams: Charlotte, Minnesota, UAB, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati
*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: California, UCONN, Minnesota, Wichita St, Arizona St
Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, Clemson, UNLV, Wake Forest, St. Mary's
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
Baylor, Maryland, Xavier moved to at-large "locks." Wake Forest moved from lock back to BubbleBoard. St Louis and William & Mary no longer tracked.
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
In: Notre Dame, Ole Miss
Out: Cincinnati, Virginia Tech
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
As noted, Baylor, Maryland, and Xavier are assured tourney spots now. Richmond, Clemson, and Wake Forest are virtual locks at this point as well. Those 3 are a step above the other teams in the BubbleBoard (and probably in reality too). It will be interesting to see how the committee deals with the likes of Utah St, UTEP, ODU, and Cal should they not win their conference tournaments. The BubbleBoard has little respect of Cal, but the committee can't turn down such a high RPI. Utah St's RPI is getting awfully high as well, but has only 2 Top 50 wins on the season.
VCU, despite still performing well in the BubbleBoard, has little shot of making it. Thus South Florida oddly is the next highest ranked team (though Marquette is about to overtake them). As you'd expect, UCONN & Mississippi St, who both lost last night, took major hits. They still might have a chance in reality, but according to the numbers, neither is close to deserving. Minnesota is another team that's dead in the water.
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 27 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do.
| Team | RPI | SOS | NCSOS | Computer | T50 W | T50 L | R/N W | R/N L | L100 L | Bonus = | Total = | Was | Dif | |
| # | Kansas | 1 | 19 | 41 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 89 | 89 | 0 |
| 1 | Richmond | 30 | 78 | 77 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 43 | 19 | 32 | -13 |
| 2 | Clemson | 25 | 25 | 156 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 3 | Wake Forest | 34 | 31 | 88 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 0 | x | x |
| 4 | Utah St** | 32 | 106 | 82 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 17 | -10 | -21 | 11 |
| 5 | UNLV | 43 | 84 | 209 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 23 | -12 | -13 | 1 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 29 | 62 | 27 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -13 | -18 | 5 |
| 7 | Florida St | 38 | 38 | 224 | 30 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -15 | -34 | 19 |
| 8 | Oklahoma St | 27 | 22 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 5 | -16 | -8 | -8 |
| 9 | Saint Mary's | 45 | 139 | 75 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 19 | -16 | -16 | 0 |
| 10 | UTEP** | 44 | 129 | 197 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 17 | -21 | -25 | 4 |
| 11 | UAB | 42 | 103 | 93 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -21 | -12 | -9 |
| 13 | Missouri | 31 | 53 | 200 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -25 | -30 | 5 |
| 14 | Louisville | 36 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1 | -7 | -27 | -23 | -4 |
| 15 | Dayton | 41 | 39 | 20 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 1 | -8 | -34 | -34 | 0 |
| 16 | Georgia Tech | 37 | 24 | 131 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 2 | -10 | -36 | -27 | -9 |
| 17 | San Diego St | 33 | 60 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 2 | -12 | -37 | -40 | 3 |
| 18 | Old Dominion** | 39 | 86 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 1 | -11 | -38 | -37 | -1 |
| 19 | Ole Miss | 56 | 61 | 145 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | -1 | -40 | -50 | 10 |
| 20 | VCU | 62 | 140 | 116 | 46 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | -40 | -42 | 2 |
| 21 | Florida | 52 | 37 | 135 | 35 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | -5 | -40 | -34 | -6 |
| 22 | Notre Dame | 61 | 54 | 216 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -41 | -55 | 14 |
| 23 | South Florida | 67 | 52 | 239 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -41 | -44 | 3 |
| 24 | Marquette | 47 | 51 | 192 | 35 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | -10 | -45 | -48 | 3 |
| 25 | Northeastern | 70 | 82 | 9 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 6 | -3 | -46 | -47 | 1 |
| 26 | Memphis | 51 | 85 | 60 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | -13 | -48 | -69 | 21 |
| 27 | Cincinnati | 65 | 14 | 43 | 38 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | -14 | -52 | -43 | -9 |
| 28 | California** | 22 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 3 | -39 | -52 | -46 | -6 |
| 29 | Virginia Tech | 53 | 131 | 343 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | -4 | -52 | -43 | -9 |
| 30 | Washington | 55 | 55 | 47 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | -18 | -53 | -52 | -1 |
| 31 | Illinois | 72 | 49 | 112 | 46 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 2 | -8 | -54 | -48 | -6 |
| 32 | Charlotte | 60 | 92 | 165 | 44 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 1 | -15 | -59 | -46 | -13 |
| 33 | Arizona St | 54 | 70 | 80 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -23 | -59 | -59 | 0 |
| 34 | UCONN | 49 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | -35 | -62 | -54 | -8 |
| 35 | Seton Hall | 63 | 21 | 172 | 42 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 0 | -23 | -65 | -64 | -1 |
| 36 | Mississippi St | 59 | 113 | 231 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 5 | -21 | -68 | -66 | -2 |
| 37 | Wichita St | 50 | 126 | 298 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | -26 | -70 | -71 | 1 |
| 38 | Minnesota | 77 | 44 | 71 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 4 | -28 | -75 | -64 | -11 |
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland
As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.
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