BubbleBoard 3/4: Ranking the NCAA Bubble Teams

    
March 4th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/04/10, 11:30 am.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Sunday.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: Memphis, Florida St, Notre Dame, Clemson, Utah St

Top 5 Falling teams: Charlotte, Minnesota, UAB, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, UCONN, Minnesota, Wichita St, Arizona St

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, Clemson, UNLV, Wake Forest, St. Mary's

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Baylor, Maryland, Xavier moved to at-large "locks." Wake Forest moved from lock back to BubbleBoard. St Louis and William & Mary no longer tracked.

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Notre Dame, Ole Miss

Out: Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

As noted, Baylor, Maryland, and Xavier are assured tourney spots now. Richmond, Clemson, and Wake Forest are virtual locks at this point as well. Those 3 are a step above the other teams in the BubbleBoard (and probably in reality too). It will be interesting to see how the committee deals with the likes of Utah St, UTEP, ODU, and Cal should they not win their conference tournaments. The BubbleBoard has little respect of Cal, but the committee can't turn down such a high RPI. Utah St's RPI is getting awfully high as well, but has only 2 Top 50 wins on the season.

 

VCU, despite still performing well in the BubbleBoard, has little shot of making it. Thus South Florida oddly is the next highest ranked team (though Marquette is about to overtake them). As you'd expect, UCONN & Mississippi St, who both lost last night, took major hits. They still might have a chance in reality, but according to the numbers, neither is close to deserving. Minnesota is another team that's dead in the water.

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 27 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 19 41 3 8 2 9 2 0 92 89 89 0
1 Richmond 30 78 77 23 4 2 9 6 0 43 19 32 -13
2 Clemson 25 25 156 20 5 5 7 6 1 27 6 -6 12
3 Wake Forest 34 31 88 23 5 4 6 7 2 23 0 x x
4 Utah St** 32 106 82 26 2 1 8 5 2 17 -10 -21 11
5 UNLV 43 84 209 35 4 4 10 4 3 23 -12 -13 1
6 Rhode Island 29 62 27 20 2 4 9 5 1 8 -13 -18 5
7 Florida St 38 38 224 30 4 6 8 5 1 15 -15 -34 19
8 Oklahoma St 27 22 125 20 4 6 6 8 1 5 -16 -8 -8
9 Saint Mary's 45 139 75 35 2 3 10 3 1 19 -16 -16 0
10 UTEP** 44 129 197 38 1 1 9 3 1 17 -21 -25 4
11 UAB 42 103 93 32 1 3 11 3 1 11 -21 -12 -9
13 Missouri 31 53 200 27 4 6 6 7 2 1 -25 -30 5
14 Louisville 36 7 19 21 3 6 5 7 1 -7 -27 -23 -4
15 Dayton 41 39 20 25 3 6 5 8 1 -8 -34 -34 0
16 Georgia Tech 37 24 131 26 4 7 5 9 2 -10 -36 -27 -9
17 San Diego St 33 60 123 26 2 5 7 7 2 -12 -37 -40 3
18 Old Dominion** 39 86 11 27 1 4 8 8 1 -11 -38 -37 -1
19 Ole Miss 56 61 145 39 2 5 8 5 1 -1 -40 -50 10
20 VCU 62 140 116 46 3 1 5 7 4 6 -40 -42 2
21 Florida   52 37 135 35 3 7 7 6 1 -5 -40 -34 -6
22 Notre Dame 61 54 216 44 4 4 3 8 2 3 -41 -55 14
23 South Florida 67 52 239 48 3 5 8 7 1 6 -41 -44 3
24 Marquette 47 51 192 35 3 7 7 6 2 -10 -45 -48 3
25 Northeastern 70 82 9 43 3 3 10 7 6 -3 -46 -47 1
26 Memphis 51 85 60 35 2 5 7 5 3 -13 -48 -69 21
27 Cincinnati 65 14 43 38 4 9 4 9 0 -14 -52 -43 -9
28 California** 22 10 1 13 0 4 5 8 3 -39 -52 -46 -6
29 Virginia Tech 53 131 343 48 2 4 7 6 2 -4 -52 -43 -9
30 Washington 55 55 47 35 2 2 2 7 4 -18 -53 -52 -1
31 Illinois 72 49 112 46 4 7 6 9 2 -8 -54 -48 -6
32 Charlotte 60 92 165 44 3 9 9 8 1 -15 -59 -46 -13
33 Arizona St 54 70 80 36 1 5 6 6 2 -23 -59 -59 0
34 UCONN 49 2 6 27 3 9 3 8 2 -35 -62 -54 -8
35 Seton Hall 63 21 172 42 3 9 3 7 0 -23 -65 -64 -1
36 Mississippi St 59 113 231 46 1 3 9 7 5 -21 -68 -66 -2
37 Wichita St 50 126 298 44 1 3 6 8 4 -26 -70 -71 1
38 Minnesota 77 44 71 47 3 6 4 9 4 -28 -75 -64 -11

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland

 

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.