Championship Week Odds: BCS Conferences

    
March 10th, 2009

Tournament Odds: BCS Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. 

 

ACC - March 12-15

 

Held in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the top 4 seeds will get automatic byes in the ACC tournament

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

North Carolina

100.00%

81.96%

54.67%

32.70%

2

Wake Forest

100.00%

80.40%

34.74%

15.05%

3

Duke

100.00%

83.68%

56.45%

31.41%

4

Florida St.

100.00%

48.85%

18.23%

7.46%

5

Clemson

86.11%

48.74%

21.05%

9.92%

6

Boston College

73.46%

14.20%

5.00%

1.21%

7

Maryland

42.04%

7.03%

1.05%

0.15%

8

Virginia Tech

37.82%

5.18%

1.28%

0.26%

9

Miami FL

62.18%

12.86%

4.47%

1.31%

10

North Carolina St.

57.96%

12.56%

2.39%

0.44%

11

Virginia

26.54%

2.11%

0.37%

0.04%

12

Georgia Tech

13.89%

2.41%

0.30%

0.04%

 

Two teams have separated themselves atop the ACC, and there is a 25% chance of a Duke-Carolina final, which you’d think might not be great for the Dukies. Wake is a clear third choice, but the spoiler could be Clemson, which has a lower chance of making the final because of a very tough pair of potential opponents, but is actually the third ranked team. Florida St. closes out the teams with any serious chance.

 

Big 12 - March 11-14

 

Oklahoma City stages the Big 12 Tournament, in which the top 4 teams get byes to the quarterfinals.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Kansas

100.00%

89.58%

76.74%

48.08%

2

Oklahoma

100.00%

75.05%

36.48%

16.76%

3

Missouri

100.00%

77.59%

48.54%

25.49%

4

Kansas St.

100.00%

41.07%

6.05%

1.07%

5

Texas

89.71%

57.20%

12.66%

3.44%

6

Texas A&M

83.13%

21.31%

8.02%

2.44%

7

Oklahoma St.

83.89%

23.81%

6.75%

1.87%

8

Nebraska

63.37%

7.70%

3.57%

0.71%

9

Baylor

36.63%

2.71%

0.91%

0.12%

10

Iowa St.

16.11%

1.14%

0.09%

0.01%

11

Texas Tech

16.87%

1.10%

0.13%

0.01%

12

Colorado

10.29%

1.73%

0.07%

0.00%

 

Kansas has a great shot at the title, while Missouri is somewhat ahead of Oklahoma, as it has been for some time in the efficiency rankings. Kansas St. is a 4 seed that should be sent home early by #5 Texas, while only A&M and OK St. can cause havoc from outside the top five.

 

 

Big East - March 10-14

 

The first season of a 16-team tournament makes for the busiest five days in college basketball in Madison Square Garden.

 

#

Team

R1

QF

SF

F

W

1

Louisville

100.00%

100.00%

88.33%

54.68%

24.65%

2

Pittsburgh

100.00%

100.00%

69.60%

30.25%

16.98%

3

Connecticut

100.00%

100.00%

82.04%

55.01%

37.33%

4

Villanova

100.00%

100.00%

66.78%

31.66%

12.08%

5

Marquette

100.00%

77.10%

29.29%

10.70%

2.98%

6

Syracuse

100.00%

81.21%

16.78%

5.97%

2.17%

7

West Virginia

100.00%

77.56%

27.04%

8.15%

3.35%

8

Providence

100.00%

64.86%

8.64%

1.80%

0.22%

9

Cincinnati

89.54%

34.43%

3.02%

0.43%

0.03%

10

Notre Dame

83.64%

21.40%

3.33%

0.46%

0.09%

11

Seton Hall

71.49%

15.88%

1.10%

0.16%

0.02%

12

Georgetown

77.35%

20.71%

3.79%

0.72%

0.09%

13

St. John's

22.65%

2.19%

0.13%

0.01%

0.00%

14

South Florida

28.51%

2.91%

0.08%

0.01%

0.00%

15

Rutgers

16.36%

1.03%

0.04%

0.00%

0.00%

16

DePaul

10.46%

0.71%

0.01%

0.00%

0.00%

 

There’s a fairly wide-open battle between the four teams that get byes into the quarters, and a further three teams that could cause an upset for the upper tier of teams. That extra game really will handicap teams like Marquette and Syracuse. The reason Pitt’s semifinal odds are so low is West Virginia, a dangerous potential quarterfinal opponent. For those wondering, DePaul’s odds of taking the crown are about 1.5 in one hundred million.

 

Big Ten - March 12-15

 

The Big Ten tournament takes place in Indianapolis, with the bottom six teams playing first round games and the top 5 getting byes.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Michigan St.

100.00%

81.15%

49.54%

31.08%

2

Illinois

100.00%

77.86%

41.96%

18.93%

3

Purdue

100.00%

81.96%

47.06%

21.97%

4

Wisconsin

100.00%

71.03%

36.15%

20.90%

5

Ohio St.

100.00%

28.97%

9.02%

3.30%

6

Penn St.

85.46%

17.44%

4.76%

0.91%

7

Michigan

67.38%

17.42%

5.31%

1.22%

8

Minnesota

57.11%

11.82%

3.56%

1.12%

9

Northwestern

42.89%

7.03%

1.73%

0.45%

10

Iowa

32.62%

4.71%

0.86%

0.11%

11

Indiana

14.54%

0.61%

0.04%

0.00%

 

The thing that should immediately jump out at you in this one is Wisconsin; the Badgers have quietly moved to a position where they have a serious chance of taking the conference title. PSU, Michigan, and Minnesota all have a chance to cause a big stir, but I’d expect one of the top 4 to be left standing in the end.

 

Pac-10 - March 11-14

 

The Pac-10 tournaments in Los Angeles, giving both USC and UCLA a semi-home advantage, though it is not played on either team’s home court. The bottom four teams play an opening round, with the winners joining the top six in the quarterfinals.

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Washington

100.00%

88.17%

50.76%

20.05%

2

UCLA

100.00%

90.65%

74.92%

54.37%

3

California

100.00%

47.56%

10.00%

3.55%

4

Arizona St.

100.00%

72.72%

38.62%

14.79%

5

Arizona

100.00%

27.28%

8.61%

1.79%

6

USC

100.00%

52.44%

11.80%

4.45%

7

Washington St.

88.41%

9.18%

3.26%

0.80%

8

Oregon St.

39.47%

3.65%

0.48%

0.04%

9

Stanford

60.53%

8.18%

1.53%

0.17%

10

Oregon

11.59%

0.17%

0.01%

0.00%

 

UCLA’s combination of strong play and the semi-home advantage gives them a great shot at the title, while the two top teams on the side of the bracket that doesn’t have the LA teams, Washington and Arizona St. are next in line. Cal faces a difficult draw, likely needing to get through both local teams to make the final. An interesting Washington St. team is the best bet for a long run out of the first round teams.

 

SEC - March 12-15

 

The SEC Tournament, in Tampa, features a divisional seeding system, similar to the Southern conference, which could boost a deeper East division to some first round wins.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

E1

Tennessee

100.00%

69.52%

32.79%

13.21%

W1

Louisiana St.

100.00%

74.84%

55.97%

39.25%

E2

South Carolina

100.00%

54.61%

17.28%

7.85%

W2

Auburn

100.00%

57.15%

34.40%

15.28%

E3

Florida

87.21%

41.36%

23.90%

10.05%

W3

Mississippi St.

92.77%

44.90%

13.63%

5.98%

E4

Kentucky

73.69%

21.74%

12.05%

6.01%

W4

Alabama

48.01%

14.21%

3.91%

0.90%

E5

Vanderbilt

51.99%

16.27%

4.73%

1.15%

W5

Mississippi

26.31%

3.42%

1.06%

0.28%

E6

Georgia

7.23%

0.49%

0.02%

0.00%

W6

Arkansas

12.79%

1.50%

0.26%

0.03%

 

LSU is the obvious favorite, but I did a double take in finding out that the #2 favorite is from the West division as well, in a surprising Auburn team. It’s not a matter of strange seeding; the Tigers have legitimately been the conference’s #2 team. I’m not sure how ‘real’ this is: the unbalanced schedule has allowed Auburn more chances to beat up on a soft lower half of the West and boost itself, but don’t be too surprised to see the Tigers make a serious challenge for the title. Beyond the top two, there are five other teams that seem to have legitimate chances, suggesting a wild week may be in store.

 

Also: Mid-Major Tournament Odds

Also: High-Major Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage