Conensus Basketball Ranking: Baylor Up to 3rd

    
January 16th, 2012

Consensus Ranking

Nothing will rile up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.

 

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we can get a good sense of the lay of the land, and we can also see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.

 

What Is It?

68 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last update.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that move the most since the last update.

 

This Week's Notes

- Not surprisingly, some of the top mid-majors fell in the ranking due to their conference schedules. Long Beach in Murray State in particular dropped because of their opponents records. (On the other hand, Virginia Tech and Louisville dropped because they played poorly.)

 

- Three Big Ten teams made positive moves for the opposite reason the mid-majors fell. Northwestern and Illinois in particular benefited from playing good teams.

 

- Like last week, the WCC continues to be the most underrated league, with its big 3 being slighted.

 

- Of the 7 highest ranked teams that didn't receive votes, 5 are from non-BCS leagues.

 

- For the 2nd week in a row, San Diego St remains the most overrated team. The computers were not as impressed with SDSU's close home win over UNLV as the humans were.

 

- Louisville dropped 16 spots in the computer ranking, but somehow remains ranked. The Cardinals lost again this afternoon and will presumably be unranked next week.

 

Rank Conference RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg Last Week AP
1 Syracuse 1 3 1 1.7 1 1
2 Ohio St 7 1 2 3.3 3 6
3 Baylor 3 8 3 4.7 7 3
4 Kentucky 9 5 4 6.0 2 2
5 Duke 2 9 7 6.0 6 4
6 Michigan St 6 6 8 6.7 4 9
7 Kansas 12 2 6 6.7 9 7
8 Missouri 11 7 5 7.7 13 5
9 Indiana 13 11 9 11.0 5 11
10 Georgetown 14 13 12 13.0 10 10
11 UNC 20 10 10 13.3 8 8
12 UNLV 10 19 11 13.3 11 14
13 Alabama 21 14 16 17.0 12 35
14 Gonzaga 8 27 23 19.3 14 29
15 Marquette 17 23 18 19.3 16 21
16 St. Mary's 24 22 14 20.0 20 24
17 West Virginia 17 24 21 20.7 18 33
18 Wisconsin 45 4 13 20.7 26 27
19 Seton Hall 5 33 25 21.0 17 28
20 UCONN 4 31 28 21.0 25 13
21 Wichita St 32 15 17 21.3 23 36
22 Creighton 19 32 15 22.0 27 19
23 Kansas St 31 21 19 23.7 15 25
24 California 39 16 24 26.3 22  
25 Virginia 36 26 20 27.3 30 15
26 Memphis 28 28 27 27.7 29  
27 Illinois 16 37 30 27.7 35 22
28 BYU 40 20 26 28.7 28  
29 Murray St 29 38 22 29.7 19 12
30 Florida 46 12 31 29.7 34 17
31 Michigan   26 34 33 31.0 24 20
32 New Mexico 56 18 29 34.3 40 30
33 Purdue 48 30 32 36.7 31  
34 Saint Louis 59 17 34 36.7 32  
35 Northwestern 25 47 38 36.7 47 38
36 Vanderbilt 33 35 44 37.3 42 26
37 Louisville 42 39 35 38.7 21 23
38 Florida St 48 29 41 39.3 new 38
39 Southern Miss 15 68 37 40.0 38  
40 Temple 23 52 47 40.7 43  
41 Harvard 50 40 42 44.0 45 31
42 Texas 62 25 45 44.0 46  
43 Minnesota 38 48 49 45.0 new  
44 Iona 35 54 48 45.7 37 37
45 Dayton 27 59 53 46.3 36  
46 Mississippi St 41 56 43 46.7 52 18
47 Xavier 43 45 56 48.0 58  
48 Northern Iowa 30 61 54 48.3 39  
49 San Diego St 37 69 39 48.3 44 16
50 MTSU 66 43 36 48.3 57  
51 Iowa St 52 44 50 48.7 50  
52 Oral Roberts 46 58 46 50.0 48  
53 Stanford 69 42 40 50.3 49 33
54 Marshall 34 66 52 50.7 53  
55 Long Beach St 54 57 51 54.0 33  
56 St. Joseph's 52 60 59 57.0 54  
57 Davidson 43 73 60 58.7 55  
58 Arizona 64 53 64 60.3 51  
59 Colorado St 22 99 72 64.3 59  
60 Virginia Tech 82 50 67 66.3 41  
61 Denver 57 85 61 67.7 56  
62 Cincinnati 104 46 58 69.3 64 32
63 Ohio   81 80 65 75.3 60  
64 Arkansas 74 79 75 76.0 63  
65 Wagner 79 81 71 77.0 61 38
66 Cleveland St 66 95 77 79.3 62  
67 UCF 65 103 87 85.0 66  
68 Ole Miss 55 126 98 93.0 65  

 

Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:

San Diego St +33

Cincinnati +30

Mississippi St +28

Wagner +27

Stanford +20

Murray St +17

Louisville +14

Florida +13

Michigan +11

Harvard +10

Vanderbilt +10

Virginia +10

 

Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Alabama -22

West Virginia -16

Gonzaga -15

Wichita St -15

Seton Hall -9

Wisconsin -9

St Mary's -8

Teams w/ no votes

California

Memphis

BYU

Purdue

Saint Louis

Southern Miss

Temple

 

Biggest Changes Since Last Week:

Rising

Northwestern +12

Xavier +11

Illinois +8

New Mexico +8

Wisconsin +8

MTSU +7

Falling

Long Beach St -22

Virginia Tech -19

Louisville -16

Murray St -10

Dayton -9

Northern Iowa -9

 

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