Consensus Ranking: Alabama, Memphis Underrated

    
February 27th, 2012
Despite falling to 10th in the AP poll, Ohio St remains strong in the Consensus Ranking (CR). The computers were nonplussed by the Buckeyes loss to Wisconsin. Similarly, Missouri only fell two spots despite a pair of losses. The biggest losers this week were actually La Salle, West Virginia, and Marshall.

 

On the positive side, Dayton, Memphis, and Purdue made the strongest moves. Interesting that although the computers respected those teams, it was the likes of Iowa St, Drexel, and VCU that the AP voters hyped up.

 

Making their debut in the CR is South Dakota St and Tennessee. South Dakota St moved into the RPI top 60 and comes in at a very respectable 57th, ahead of many teams getting bubble love. SD St is also 9 spots ahead of Oral Roberts, despite trailing in the Summit standings. Tennessee comes in at a less respectable 75th, the lowest rank of any team getting bubble love.

 

Also of note, Wichita St moves into the top 10 for the first time. The Shockers are consistently respected across the board, though the AP voters have been slower to jump on the bandwagon. Lastly, Saint Louis is the highest CR team without a single AP vote. The Billikens lost at Rhode Island, which the computers were not as concerned about.

 

What Is It?

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

82 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

Rank Team RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg Last 2 Weeks AP
1 Kentucky 3 1 1 1.7 1 2t 1
2 Michigan St 4 3 3 3.3 2t 4 5
3 Ohio St 7 2 2 3.7 4 1 10
4 Syracuse 1 6 5 4.0 2t 2t 2
5 Kansas 6 4 4 4.7 5 5 3
6 UNC 5 7 6 6.0 6 6t 6
7 Duke 2 10 9 7.0 8 9 4
8 Wichita St 10 8 10 9.3 14 18 15
9 Missouri 16 9 7 10.7 7 8 7
10 Marquette 8 16 13 12.3 11 15 8
11t Georgetown 12 13 14 13.0 9t 11 11
11t Baylor 9 18 12 13.0 12 6t 9
13t Wisconsin 27 5 8 13.3 9t 13t 14
13t Indiana 18 11 11 13.3 13 10 18
15 Florida 19 17 15 17.0 15 12 16
15t Memphis 21 14 16 17.0 23 23 36
17 UNLV 11 30 20 20.3 19t 13t 17
18 Michigan   13 25 24 20.7 18 22 13
19 Saint Louis 34 12 18 21.3 16 19  
20 New Mexico 33 15 17 21.7 17 21 29
21 Louisville 20 27 19 22.0 21 24 19
22t Vanderbilt 22 20 26 22.7 24 31 31
22t Alabama 24 21 23 22.7 29 26 40
24 Virginia 38 19 22 26.3 27 25 24
25 Gonzaga 17 33 31 27.0 26 27t 26
26 Florida St 25 29 28 27.3 19t 16 22
27 Temple 15 34 34 27.7 25 34 23
28 California 36 24 25 28.3 22 32t 37t
29 Kansas St 45 23 21 29.7 31t 32t 39t
30 Creighton 23 39 30 30.7 28 17 25
31 Iowa St 31 31 33 31.7 35t 35t 27
32 Purdue 40 28 29 32.3 40 44t 37t
33 UCONN 30 36 38 34.7 33 29  
34 Texas 55 26 27 36.0 31t 37t  
35 St. Mary's 32 41 36 36.3 39 20 28
36 Notre Dame 42 32 37 37.0 38 50 20
37 Harvard 37 35 40 37.3 30 37t 35
38 Belmont 59 22 32 37.7 44 x  
39 Long Beach St 35 42 41 39.3 41 39 33
40 Murray St 29 48 43 40.0 46 47 12
41 BYU 49 38 35 40.7 35t 35t 34
42t Seton Hall 44 43 44 43.7 42 49  
42t Southern Miss 14 66 51 43.7 37 30 39t
44 Miami 48 40 45 44.3 45 46  
45 West Virginia 50 45 39 44.7 34 27t  
46 San Diego St 28 60 49 45.7 48 41 21
47 Iona 41 49 48 46.0 49 51  
48 MTSU 47 50 47 48.0 43 40  
49 Northwestern 43 56 53 50.7 47 54  
50 Cincinnati 77 37 42 52.0 52 59  
51t Arizona 67 44 46 52.3 50 44t  
51t VCU 60 47 50 52.3 57 x 32
53 Xavier 54 53 56 54.3 53t 53  
54 St. Joseph's 51 64 58 57.7 51 55  
55 South Dakota St 56 57 62 58.3 x x  
56 Washington 52 68 59 59.7 58 60  
57 Dayton 61 59 60 60.0 75 69  
58 Drexel 74 46 61 60.3 64 x 30
59 NC State 71 58 54 61.0 53t x  
60 Illinois 72 63 52 62.3 59 42  
61 Davidson 65 62 64 63.7 68 62t  
62 South Florida 46 69 77 64.0 62 x  
63 Oregon 53 72 68 64.3 61 x  
64t Minnesota 82 61 55 66.0 55 43  
64t Oral Roberts 39 89 70 66.0 65 57  
66 Colorado St 26 88 91 68.3 69 65  
67t Akron 58 78 72 69.3 60 56  
67t Mississippi St 64 81 63 69.3 66 48  
69 La Salle 89 55 65 69.7 56 x  
70 Stanford 106 54 57 72.3 71 62t  
71 Northern Iowa 63 82 75 73.3 67 58  
72 Ohio   78 74 73 75.0 78 68  
73 Marshall 62 84 81 75.7 63 64  
74 Cleveland St 75 76 78 76.3 73 52  
75 Tennessee 92 65 76 77.7 x x  
76 UCF 66 80 89 78.3 70 71  
77 Denver 91 73 80 81.3 74 72  
78 Virginia Tech 104 77 66 82.3 77 66  
79 Nevada 57 105 101 87.7 76 x  
80 Ole Miss 69 103 98 90.0 79 70  
81 Wagner 80 104 93 92.3 72 67  
82 Arkansas 84 111 97 97.3 80 61  

 

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +28

Murray St +28

San Diego St +25

VCU +19

Notre Dame +16

BYU +7

Saint Mary's +7

LBSU +6

 

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Memphis -21

Alabama -18

Kansas St -10

California -9

New Mexico -9
Vanderbilt -9

Teams w/ no votes

Saint Louis

UCONN

Texas

Belmont

Seton Hall

 

Biggest Changes In Last Week:

Rising

Dayton +18

Memphis +8

Purdue +8

Alabama +7

Davidson +7

Falling

La Salle -13

West Virginia -11

Marshall -10

Minnesota -9

Akron/Harvard -7

 

Biggest Changes In Last Two Weeks:

Rising

Notre Dame +14

Purdue +12

Dayton +12

Vanderbilt +9

Wichita St +9

Falling

Arkansas -21

Minnesota -21

Mississippi St -19

Illinois -18

West Virginia -18

 

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