Consensus Ranking: Drexel, Murray, San Diego St Overrated

    
March 9th, 2012

In the latest Consensus Ranking (CR), Colorado St, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and NC State are the hottest teams over the last 10 days. All four of those squads are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and rising at the right time. Cincinnati also rose 9 spots to 41st and has to be considered a Tournament lock at this point. The bubble team that fell the most was Seton Hall.

 

According to the CR, Drexel, San Diego St, and Murray St are extremely overrated vs the AP ranking. This is something to consider when you fill out your brackets next week. On the underrated side, Saint Louis and Memphis remain the most underrated. If these two teams get 6 or 7 seeds, they could be very dangerous to 2 or 3 seeds.

 

The computers like Ohio St as much as AP #2 Syracuse, and think Indiana is better than their AP ranking suggests. In general, the computers think the Big Ten is even better than people realize, with the lone exception being Michigan.


What Is It?
With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

83 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.
 

Rank Team RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg Last 2 Weeks AP
1 Kentucky 2 1 1 1.3 1 1 1
2 Ohio St 7 2 2 3.7 3 4 7
3t Syracuse 1 6 5 4.0 4 2t 2
3t UNC 3 5 4 4.0 6 6 4
5 Kansas 6 4 3 4.3 5 5 3
6 Michigan St 5 3 6 4.7 2 2t 8
7t Duke 4 16 10 10.0 7 8 6
7t Indiana 11 10 9 10.0 13t 13 15
9 Missouri 16 9 7 10.7 9 7 5
10 Wichita St 14 8 11 11.0 8 14 16
11 Baylor 9 14 12 11.7 11t 12 12
12t Wisconsin 24 7 8 13.0 13t 9t 14
12t Marquette 8 17 14 13.0 10 11 9
14 Georgetown 17 13 13 14.3 11t 9t 13
15 Memphis 18 11 15 14.7 15t 23 31
16 Michigan   12 19 20 17.0 18 18 10
17 Saint Louis 30 12 17 19.7 19 16 37t
18 Florida 29 18 16 21.0 15 15 22
19 UNLV 10 32 22 21.3 17 19t 20
20 Louisville 20 26 19 21.7 21 21 27
21 New Mexico 34 15 18 22.3 20 17 29
22t Vanderbilt 28 20 29 25.7 22t 24 32t
22t Florida St 23 28 26 25.7 26 19t 17
24 Temple 13 34 34 27.0 27 25 21
25 Creighton 22 36 27 28.3 30 28 19
26t Kansas St 44 21 21 28.7 29 31t 36
26t California 35 23 28 28.7 28 22  
28t Purdue 41 22 24 29.0 32 40  
28t Gonzaga 25 31 31 29.0 25 26 24
30 Virginia 42 25 23 30.0 24 27 30
31 Alabama 32 29 30 30.3 22t 29  
32t Texas 43 27 25 31.7 34 31t  
32t Iowa St 33 30 32 31.7 31 35t 25
34 St. Mary's 26 42 35 34.3 35 39 26
35 Murray St 19 44 41 34.7 40 46 11
36 UCONN 31 37 37 35.0 33 33  
37 Notre Dame 37 38 39 38.0 36 38 23
38 Belmont 60 24 33 39.0 38 44  
39t Harvard 36 40 44 40.0 37 30 37t
39t Long Beach St 39 39 42 40.0 39 41 35
41t Cincinnati 59 33 36 42.7 50 52 34
41t San Diego St 27 55 46 42.7 46 48 18
43 Miami 52 35 43 43.3 44 45  
44t West Virginia 51 43 38 44.0 45 34  
44t VCU 38 45 49 44.0 51t 57 32t
46 BYU 45 49 40 44.7 41 35t  
47 Southern Miss 15 68 54 45.7 42t 37  
48 Iona 40 53 52 48.3 47 49  
49 NC State 55 48 45 49.3 59 53t  
50 Seton Hall 64 47 47 52.7 42t 42  
51t South Dakota St 48 56 60 54.7 55 x  
51t Colorado St 21 72 71 54.7 66 69  
53t Drexel 70 41 56 55.7 58 64 28
53t MTSU 58 59 50 55.7 48 43  
55 Northwestern 57 57 55 56.3 49 47  
56 Xavier 54 60 57 57.0 53 53t  
57 Arizona 77 50 48 58.3 51t 50  
58 South Florida 46 65 67 59.3 62 62  
59 St. Joseph's 61 64 58 61.0 54 51  
60t Minnesota 87 54 51 64.0 64t 55  
60t Tennessee 78 52 62 64.0 75 x  
60t Oregon 63 63 66 64.0 63 61  
63 Washington 68 66 61 65.0 56 58  
64 Dayton 74 62 63 66.3 57 75  
65t Stanford 97 51 53 67.0 70 71  
65t Davidson 65 67 69 67.0 61 68  
67 La Salle 80 58 65 67.7 69 56  
68 Marshall 56 75 76 69.0 73 63  
69 Akron 62 79 73 71.3 67t 60  
70 Ole Miss 53 80 82 71.7 80 79  
71 Ohio   69 74 74 72.3 72 78  
72t Illinois 91 70 59 73.3 60 59  
72t UCF 50 81 89 73.3 76 70  
74 Mississippi St 71 83 68 74.0 67t 66  
75 Oral Roberts 47 100 80 75.7 64t 65  
76 UCLA 129 46 64 79.7 x x  
77 Northern Iowa 73 96 78 82.3 71 67  
78 Cleveland St 84 84 81 83.0 74 73  
79 Denver 92 76 84 84.0 77 74  
80 Nevada 49 103 101 84.3 79 76  
81 Virginia Tech 114 86 79 93.0 78 77  
82 Wagner 88 115 102 101.7 81 72  
83 Arkansas 110 132 110 117.3 82 80  

 

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +25

Murray St +24

San Diego St +23

Notre Dame +14

VCU +12

Saint Mary's +8

Cincinnati +7

Iowa St +7

Creighton +6

Michgan +6

 

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Saint Louis -20

Memphis -16

Kansas St -10

Vanderbilt -10

Indiana -8 / UNM -8

Teams w/ no votes

California

Purdue

Alabama

Texas

UCONN

 

Biggest Changes In Last Week:

Rising

Colorado St +15

Tennessee +10

NC State +10

Ole Miss +10

Cincinnati +9

Falling

Illinois -12

Oral Roberts -11

Alabama -9

Seton Hall -8

 

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