Consensus Ranking: KenPom, RPI, Sagarin

    
February 6th, 2012 by Shawn Siegel
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Mississippi St Overrated?

Mississippi St Overrated?

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Consensus Ranking

Nothing riles up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.

 

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.

 

What Is It?

72 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

This Week's Notes: February 6th

- Ohio St takes over the top spot in the Consensus Ranking thanks to a hard-fought loss by Kansas.

- Saint Louis moves into the Top 20 for the first time at 19th. They've consistently been moving up the Consensus Ranking, although the AP voters haven't noticed. The Bills did not receive a single vote this week.

- While SLU is getting no love, Notre Dame is getting a lot of respect by the voters. The Irish have no doubt been a surprise team of late, but the computers suggest that this run is a bit flukey. The Irish are 50th in the ranking.

- The computers are not on Murray St's bandwagon either. Despite remaining unbeaten, the Racers are dropping down the ranking each week thanks to their weak opponents. Murray has only played 3 Top 100 RPI teams all season. Michigan St has played 12 for comparison.

- Miami, Notre Dame, Akron, and Washington all enter the tracking this week. Akron has snuck up on people, falling in the Top 60 in each ranking. Miami, of course, shot up thanks to beating Duke on the road.

- Despite being .500 in Big Ten play, the computers still like Indiana more than their 23rd position in the AP Poll. The Computers are content that losing games at the likes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio St is no big deal. The Hoosiers play 5 of their last 7 games at home, and have a good chance to regain the voters respect.

 

Rank Team RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg Last 2 Weeks AP
1 Ohio St 4 1 1 2.0 2 2 3
2t Syracuse 1 6 3 3.3 3 1 2
2t Kentucky 6 2 2 3.3 4 4 1
4 Michigan St 3 5 6 4.7 5 6 11
5 Kansas 9 3 4 5.3 1 7 7
6t Baylor 2 11 9 7.3 6 3 6
6t UNC 7 8 7 7.3 7 11 5
8 Missouri 11 7 5 7.7 8 8 4
9 Duke 5 16 11 10.7 9 5 10
10 Indiana 18 9 10 12.3 13 9 23
11 Georgetown 13 13 13 13.0 12 10 12
12 Florida 14 14 12 13.3 16 30 8
13t UNLV 10 18 14 14.0 10 12 14
13t Wisconsin 30 4 8 14.0 11 18 21
15 Marquette 12 22 16 16.7 14 15 18
16 Florida St 17 17 20 18.0 18 38 15
17 Creighton 15 24 17 18.7 17 22 17
18 Wichita St 27 15 15 19.0 15 21 31
19 Saint Louis 33 12 19 21.3 21 34  
20 St. Mary's 23 26 21 23.3 23 16 16
21 New Mexico 44 10 18 24.0 28 32 33
22 Michigan   16 28 29 24.3 29 31 22
23 Memphis 20 27 27 24.7 25 26  
24 Louisville 29 29 24 27.3 36 37 24
25 Virginia 42 19 22 27.7 27 25 19
26 Alabama 34 25 25 28.0 26 13  
27t Gonzaga 24 35 30 29.7 20 14 30
27t West Virginia 26 32 31 29.7 24 17  
29 UCONN 22 34 34 30.0 30 20  
30 Southern Miss 8 44 39 30.3 38 39 28
31 Vanderbilt 28 31 33 30.7 31 36 35t
32t Kansas St 49 23 23 31.7 19 23 34
32t California 48 21 26 31.7 22 24  
34 Temple 21 39 36 32.0 32 40 29
35t BYU 41 33 32 35.3 34 28 38t
35t Iowa St 35 36 35 35.3 48 51 27
37t Harvard 40 37 37 38.0 41 41 25
37t Texas 66 20 28 38.0 42 42  
39 Long Beach St 36 48 43 42.3 37 55 32
40 MTSU 45 42 41 42.7 40 50  
41 San Diego St 19 63 47 43.0 33 49 13
42 Illinois 46 41 44 43.7 43 27  
43 Minnesota 50 45 46 47.0 45 43  
44t Purdue 64 40 38 47.3 47 33  
44t Arizona 62 38 42 47.3 54 58  
46 Miami 38 53 53 48.0 x x 38t
47 Murray St 39 61 45 48.3 35 29 9
48 Mississippi St 32 69 49 50.0 44 46 20
49 Seton Hall 31 66 55 50.7 39 19  
50 Notre Dame 56 46 52 51.3 x x 26
51 Iona 57 50 48 51.7 51 44 35t
52 Cleveland St 61 47 50 52.7 60 66 35t
53 Xavier 53 56 59 56.0 49 47  
54 Northwestern 37 68 64 56.3 50 35  
55 St. Joseph's 43 65 63 57.0 57 56  
56 Akron 54 59 60 57.7 x x  
57 Oral Roberts 47 73 62 60.7 53 52  
58 Northern Iowa 51 74 68 64.3 56 48  
59 Cincinnati 95 49 51 65.0 58 62  
60 Washington 76 64 65 68.3 x x  
61 Arkansas 59 75 73 69.0 61 64  
62t Davidson 67 72 71 70.0 52 57  
62t Stanford 96 60 54 70.0 59 53  
64 Marshall 60 76 79 71.7 63 54  
65 Colorado St 25 102 91 72.7 65 59  
66 Virginia Tech 92 67 69 76.0 55 60  
67 Wagner 75 82 77 78.0 68 65  
68 Ohio   79 85 74 79.3 62 63  
69 Dayton 71 88 81 80.0 46 45  
70 Ole Miss 52 104 94 83.3 66 68  
71 UCF 63 96 93 84.0 64 67  
72 Denver 88 90 87 88.3 67 61  

 

Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:

Murray St +38

Mississippi St +28

San Diego St +28

Notre Dame +24

Cleveland St +17

Iona +16

Harvard +12

Iowa St +8

Miami +8

Virginia +6

 

Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Indiana -13

Wichita St -13

New Mexico -12

Wisconsin -8

 

Teams w/ no votes

Saint Louis

Memphis

Alabama

West Virginia

UCONN

 

Biggest Changes Since Last Week:

Rising

Iowa St +13

Louisville +12

Arizona +10

Cleveland St +8

Southern Miss +8

Falling

Dayton -23

Xavier -14

Kansas St -13

Murray St -12

Seton Hall -10

 

Biggest Changes In Last Two Weeks:

Rising

Florida St +22

Florida +18

Iowa St +16

Long Beach St +16

Saint Louis +15

Falling

Seton Hall -30

Dayton -24

Northwestern -19

Murray St -18

Illinois -15

 

 

 

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