How Did I Do? Actual Tournament Field vs Editor's Late Summer Projection

    
March 16th, 2009

Back in early September (the 9th), I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 Field of 65. With almost two months still to go before the season, I think I did a surprisingly solid job. Sure I had some misses, but only a few glaring errors. I ended up getting 42 of the 65 teams correct.. but most of the misses were right there in the Bubble hunt or competitive in their conference tournaments.

 

The glaring errors are: Winthrop in the Big South (the Eagles had a brutal season, though performed better at the end). Southern Illinois in the MVC was a major flop. Ole Miss in the SEC was weak, though the injury to Chris Warren could have changed their luck substantially.

 

Outside of those three, most of my misses ended up having solid seasons. Creighton, St. Mary's, and UNLV were all just as good as bubble teams like Maryland and Arizona that made the Tourney.  With the exception of Ole Miss, all of my other power conference misses are in the NIT. In the leagues I thought would only get one bid, I did the worst job in the Horizon, as I never saw Butler having this good a season.  Other misses though like Davidson (who wouldn't have picked that), Vermont (they won the AE regular season title), Pacific (they made the Big West final), and Nevada (WAC finalists) weren't half bad.

 

Multi-Bid Leagues (45)
Big East  - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest) Boston College, Florida St, Maryland
Pac-10  - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Washington) California
Big 12 - Kansas - (Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M) Oklahoma St
Big Ten  - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin) Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota

SEC  - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee) LSU, Mississippi St

A-10 - Xavier - (Dayton, Temple)
Mountain West - UNLV - (BYU)  Utah

Missouri Valley - Creighton - (Southern Illinois) Northern Iowa
Conference USA - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)

One-Bid Leagues (20 Projected)
America East - Vermont Binghamton
Atlantic Sun - Belmont Jacksonville
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop Radford
Big West - Pacific Northridge
CAA - VCU
Horizon - Wright State Butler, Cleveland St
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State Akron
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State Morehad State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson Chattanooga
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit -
North Dakota State

Sun Belt - MTSU WKU

WAC - Nevada Utah St

 

It's always fun projecting future Tournament fields, and I look forward to my first 2010 Projection.. which will come out the day after this year's Championship game.

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