NCAA Tournament: Odds of a Seed Advancing

    
March 5th, 2012
This chart shows how each seed has fared over the six rounds of each tournament since 1985 (the start of the 64/68 team tournament). For Example the #1 Seeds have won 100% of their first round games, but #2 have only won 95.7% of the time. The #1 Seeds have made it to the finals 14.1% of the time, but note #4 seeds have only made it 1.1% of the time.

 

These numbers show that there is a wide gap between the #1 seeds and everyone else, especially when it comes to making the finals. While its great to pick a couple cinderella teams, you're best off not picking those teams to actually win it all.

 

To see the specific amount of times each seed has advanced to each round (ie, 95/100), instead of percentages, check out this chart instead.

 

Any Given Team's Chance to Survive (by Round)

Seed

1st

2nd

Sweet 16

Elite Eight

Final Four

Finals

1

100.0

87.0

70.7

41.3

22.8

14.1

2

95.7

63.0

46.7

22.8

10.9

4.3

3

83.7

47.8

22.8

13.0

8.7

3.3

4

80.4

43.5

15.2

9.8

2.2

1.1

5

69.6

37.0

5.4

4.3

2.2

0.0

6

68.5

38.0

13.0

3.3

2.2

1.1

7

64.1

19.6

6.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

8

45.7

9.8

6.5

3.3

1.1

1.1

9

54.3

3.3

1.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

10

35.9

17.4

6.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

11

31.5

12.0

4.3

2.2

0.0

0.0

12

31.5

15.2

1.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

13

19.6

4.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

14

16.3

2.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

15

4.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

16

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

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