NCAA Tournament: Upset & Cinderella Odds

    
March 16th, 2009

Anyone who guarantees a first round upset is being a fool.. you just never know. But CollegeHoops.net's Tournament Odds gives you an idea about which upsets, early bust-outs, and Cinderella runs are most likely.

 

Best to Worst

Lock

Highly Likely

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

 

 

 

1st Round Win /

Make 2nd Round

2nd Round Win /

Make Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Win /

Make Elite Eight

Elite 8 Win /

Make Final Four

1

 Louisville

Lock

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

Probably

16

 Opening Round

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

9

 Siena

50/50

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

8

 Ohio St

50/50

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

5

 Utah

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

12

 Arizona

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

13

 Cleveland St

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

4

 Wake Forest

Probably

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

3

 Kansas

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

Probably

Probably Not

14

 North Dakota St

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

11

 Dayton

Probably Not

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

6

 West Virginia

Probably

Probably Not

Probably Not

Probably Not

7

 Boston College

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

10

 USC

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

15

 Robert Morris

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

2

 Michigan St

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

Probably

Probably Not

 

 

1st Round Win /

Make 2nd Round

2nd Round Win /

Make Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Win /

Make Elite Eight

Elite 8 Win /

Make Final Four

1

 UCONN

Lock

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

Probably

16

 Chattanooga

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

9

 Texas A&M

Probably

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

8

 BYU

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

5

 Purdue

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

12

 Northern Iowa

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

13

 Mississippi St

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

4

 Washington

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

3

 Missouri

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

14

 Cornell

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

11

 Utah St

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

6

 Marquette

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

7

 California

50/50

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

10

 Maryland

50/50

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

15

 Northridge

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

2

 Memphis

Lock

Highly Likely

Probably

Probably Not

 

 

1st Round Win /

Make 2nd Round

2nd Round Win /

Make Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Win /

Make Elite Eight

Elite 8 Win /

Make Final Four

1

 Pittsburgh

Lock

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

50/50

16

 ETSU

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

9

 Tennessee

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

8

 Oklahoma St

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

5

 Florida St

Highly Likely

Probably

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

12

 Wisconsin

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

13

 Portland St

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

4

 Xavier

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

3

 Villanova

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

14

 American

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Highly Doubtful

11

 VCU

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

6

 UCLA

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

Probably Not

7

 Texas

Probably

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

10 

 Minnesota

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

15

 Binghamton

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

2

 Duke

Lock

Highly Likely

Probably

50/50

 

 

1st Round Win /

Make 2nd Round

2nd Round Win /

Make Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Win /

Make Elite Eight

Elite 8 Win /

Make Final Four

1

 North Carolina

Lock

Lock

Highly Likely

Highly Likely

16

 Radford

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

Impossible

9

 Butler

Probably

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

8

 LSU

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

5

 Illinois

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

12

 Western Ky.

Probably Not

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

13

 Akron

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

4

 Gonzaga

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

3

 Syracuse

Highly Likely

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

14

 Stephen F Austin

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

11

 Temple

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

6

 Arizona St

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Probably Not

7

 Clemson

Probably

Probably Not

Probably Not

Probably Not

10

 Michigan

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

15

 Morgan St

Highly Doubtful

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

Impossible

2

 Oklahoma

Highly Likely

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

 

1 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: North Carolina

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Pittsburgh

 

2 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Duke

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Oklahoma

 

3 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Syracuse

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Missouri

 

4 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Wake Forest

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Xavier

 

5 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Florida St

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Utah

 

6-7 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Arizona St, West Virginia (6s), Clemson (7)

Most likely first round loss: UCLA (6), Boston College (7)

 

8-9 Seeds

Most likely Elite Eight teams: BYU, Ohio State (8s), Tennessee (9)

 

10-11 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Utah State, Dayton (11s)

 

12-13 Seeds

Most likely to Make Deep Run: Arizona, Western Kentucky (12s), Mississippi St (13),

 

14-15-16 Seeds

Most likely Cinderella teams: Stephen F Austin, American (14s), Morgan State (15)