2008 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

May 12th, 2008 by Shawn Siegel

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NBA Draft

The 2008 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday night, May 20th. Just like last year, when neither Memphis or Boston (the worst teams) ended up with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, Miami and Seattle fans shouldn't get too excited about the prospect of snagging Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose.

Miami obviously has the best chance at #1 with 25% odds. Notice however, that they have less than a 50% chance combined of getting the Top 2 picks. There's actually a better chance (53.5%) that they will get the 3rd pick or below. The same goes for the Sonics who have a 61.3% chance of getting the 3rd pick or below. In fact, the most likely pick that both the Heat and Sonics will get is the 4th pick.

Both Minnesota and Memphis, who have the 3rd best odds (those teams finished with the same record but Minnesota gets an extra ping-pong ball), are actually most likely to end up with the 5th pick.

Included in the top chart is each team's chance of getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. These are official numbers supplied by NBA.com.

TEAM	RECORD	COMBOS	1st	2nd	3rd
Miami	15-67	250	25.00%	21.47%	17.72%
Seattle	20-62	199	19.90%	18.78%	17.07%
Minnesota	22-60	138	13.80%	14.24%	14.54%
Memphis	22-60	137	13.70%	14.16%	14.48%
New York	23-59	76	7.60%	8.44%	9.47%
L.A. Clippers	23-59	75	7.50%	8.33%	9.37%
Milwaukee	26-56	43	4.30%	4.93%	5.77%
Charlotte	32-50	28	2.80%	3.26%	3.87%
Chicago	33-49	17	1.70%	2.00%	2.40%
New Jersey	34-48	11	1.10%	1.30%	1.57%
Indiana	36-46	8	0.80%	0.95%	1.15%
Sacramento	38-44	7	0.70%	0.83%	1.01%
Portland	41-41	6	0.60%	0.71%	0.87%
Golden State	48-34	5	0.50%	0.59%	0.72%