ACC

The Starting Fives: ACC

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:11:16 -0700

Unlike the NBA, where most starting lineups are set in stone weeks before the season, NCAA starting fives are highly unsettled and constantly in flux. Going through the BCS leagues this week, I'll be projecting the starting fives for each team. Also included is the team's most important bench option, and some notes on other possible lineups.

In the case where a quality player is ineligible for the fall semester or suspended for the opening few games, I've still included them in the projections. These are really supposed to be projections of how lineups will look in February and March.

Next week, based on these lineups, I'll be throwing out statistical projections for major BCS contributors.

THE ACC

Boston College

G Biko Paris So
G Tyrese Rice Sr
F Rakim Sanders So
F Corey Raji So
C Josh Southern So

6 Joe Trapani (PF)

Notes: BC's lineup is pretty well settled. Tyler Roche could be just as important as Southern or Trapani in the frontcourt. Freshman guards Reggie Jackson and Dallas Elmore should also figure into the regular rotation.

Clemson

G Demontez Stitt So
G Terrence Oglesby So
G KC Rivers Sr
F Raymond Sykes Sr
C Trevor Booker Jr

6 Andre Young (PG)

Notes: The freshman Young is well-hyped, but Clemon's returnees are too solid for him to sneak into the starting five. David Potter and Jerai Grant should be the other reserves seeing major minutes.

Duke

G Greg Paulus Jr
G Jon Scheyer Jr
G Gerald Henderson Jr
F Kyle Singler So
C Brian Zoubek Jr

6 Lance Thomas (PF)

Notes: Compared to the above teams, Duke's minutes are up for grabs. Scheyer isn't a lock to start, as both Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith will push him for minutes. I put Thomas as the 6th man because he'll inevitably see major minutes when Zoubek gets tired, hurt, or in foul-trouble.

Florida State

G Toney Douglas Sr
G Derwin Kitchen So
F Chris Singleton Fr
F Uche Echefu Sr
F Solomon Alabi Fr

6 Ryan Reid (PF)

Notes: The Noles will be relying on youth as much as any ACC team. Alabi is a raw, talented freshman, but it wouldn't suprise me if Reid ends up starting at some point. Another freshman, Deividas Dulkys, could be the team's highest scoring option off the bench.

Georgia Tech

G Maurice Miller So
G Lewis Clinch Sr
F Iman Shumpert Fr
F Gani Lawal So
C Zack Peacock Jr

6 D'Andre Bell (G/F)

Notes: Unless he's a bust, there's no reason Shumpert won't start from day one. Bell could be one of the ACC's best reserves, while senior Alade Aminu is the best forward off the bench.

Maryland

G Greivis Vasquez So
G Eric Hayes Jr
F Landon Milbourne Jr
F Jerome Burnley So
C Braxton Dupree So

6 Sean Mosley (SG)

Notes: The only possible change from this lineup is that Dino Gregory beats out Burnley for the PF spot. Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie will also get major reserve minutes, and could possibly start if Milbourne falters.

Miami

G Lance Hurdle Sr
G Jack McClinton Sr
F James Dews Jr
F Dwayne Collins Jr
C Jimmy Graham Sr

6 Brian Asbury (PF)

Notes: Miami has more experience and more depth than most ACC teams. Asbury is good enough to start, and could relegate either Dews or Graham to a reserve role. Arkansas transfer Cyrus McGowan could also take minutes from Graham. Edwin Rios will be the backup point guard, while freshman swing-man DeQuan Jones should also see 15-20 mpg.

NC State

G Farnold Degand Jr
G Courtney Fells Sr
F Tracy Smith So
F Brandon Costner Jr
C Ben McCauley Sr

6 Julius Mays (G)

Notes: This seems to be the consensus starting five that everyone expects. The addition of freshman Mays is big, because he should allow the Pack to play quicker three-guard lineups (perhaps relegating Smith to the bench). Dennis Horner should be the first of State's weak frontcourt reserves to see action.

North Carolina

G Ty Lawson Jr
G Wayne Ellington Jr
F Marcus Ginyard Sr
F Deon Thompson Jr
F Tyler Hansbough Sr

6 Danny Green (SF)

Notes: This lineup should be familiar, since it returns untouched from last year. Bobby Frasor will be the other piece of UNC's seven-man core. One of either freshman Ed Davis or Tyler Zellar will emerge as the first big off the bench.

Virginia

G Calvin Baker Jr
G Jeff Jones So
F Mamadi Diane Sr
F Mike Scott So
C Laurynas Mikalauskas Sr

6 Sylven Landesberg (SG)

Notes: UVA has some options, unfortunately most of them aren't very good. Sammy Zeglinski is a possible starter at the point, but I expect Baker to win the job. The freshman Landesberg could replace Jones, but might be better as a super-sub to start. Up front, Jamil Tucker will probably be the first big man off the pine.

Virginia Tech

G Malcolm Delaney So
G AD Vassallo Sr
F JT Thompson So
F Jeff Allen So
F Victor Davila Fr

6 Lewis Witcher (PF)

Notes: This lineup is definitely not set in stone. Davila and Witcher could swap starting spots, but I'm going with Davila because he's the better offensive player. Hank Thorns (who began last year as the starting PG) could regain a starting spot, pushing Vassallo to the wing and Thompson to the 6th man role.

Wake Forest

G Ishmael Smith Jr
G Jeff Teague So
F Al-Farouq Aminu Fr
F James Johnson So
C Chas McFarland Jr

6 LD Williams (G/F)

Notes: Wake is getting a lot of hype due to its freshmen, but the returning players aren't bad either. Harvey Hale will join Williams as the two main guards/wings off the bench. Front-court minutes are up for grabs. Besides newcomers Ty Walker and Tony Woods fighting for the backup center role, you also have PF Jamie Skeen who would start for most teams. Junior big David Weaver might be the odd man out.

Think my projections are off, let me know below where you differ!

Poll: Best Conference in 2008-09?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 08:21:56 -0700

College Football: 2008 ACC Preview: Part One

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 09:02:08 -0700

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Another season of ACC football is on the horizon, and the nagging question regarding this league remains the same: when will the conference champ win its BCS bowl game? Since Florida State knocked off Virginia Tech (then a member of the Big East) in the 2000 Sugar Bowl, the league champ has lost every BCS tilt. Some by blowout (Maryland's loss to Florida in the Orange Bowl a few years back comes to mind) and others by a narrow margin (Virginia Tech's loss to Kansas in last year's Orange Bowl), but the results remains the same. So, is there an answer in the affirmative for the ACC's BCS woes? There just might be one: Clemson.

The Tigers, who were able to retain the services of head coach Tommy Bowden (he turned down Arkansas to remain at Clemson) and running back James Davis (who flirted with entering the NFL Draft back in January), are the clear team to beat in the eyes of many college football analysts heading into this season. The passionate fans, who've been without an ACC title since 1991 (the year before Florida State joined the league), aren't in the mood to settle for anything less than a conference title this year. But there will be some roadblocks in achieving that goal this season, and for a program with a penchant in recent years for allowing one bad moment snowball and nearly derail their entire season, that's not a good thing.

With Clemson the pick to win the Atlantic Division, the Coastal should once again rest firmly in the hands of defending ACC champ Virginia Tech. The dismissal of running back Branden Ore may be similar to that of LSU quarterback Ryan Perrilloux (read: addition by subtraction), but the Hokies in addition to a lack of experience in the backfield are also without playmakers at wide receiver with four graduating and another (junior Brandon Dillard) going down with a season-ending injury during off-season workouts. But head coach Frank Beamer has gone away from the two-quarterback system (Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor) that kick-started the offensive attack and got them to the Orange Bowl, selecting Glennon as starter. The Hokies hope to be able to redshirt Taylor, giving him three years of eligibility starting in 2009.

As for who can challenge these two favorites: in the Atlantic you have to like Wake Forest with the return of quarterback Riley Skinner and defensive playmaker Alphonso Smith. Head coach Jim Grobe has put together one of the greatest program turnarounds in recent college football history, and don't be surprised if the Deacs find their way to Tampa on December 6^th. Florida State has to deal with some suspensions in their first three games, two of which are against Championship Subdivision foes. But if they can take care of Wake at home on September 20^th, they just might be a darkhorse in the Atlantic Division race, a peculiar position in which to find a program of such prestige.

Maryland and North Carolina State both went into fall camp with question marks at quarterback, but the difference is that Coach Friedgen had a couple of proven commodities from which to choose in College Park. Chris Turner and Jordan Steffy have both played a great deal for the Terps, with Turner finishing third in the ACC in pass efficiency last season. He'll begin in the saddle, but the Terps have a nice insurance policy should he go down. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, will go with redshirt freshman Russell Wilson will begin the year as the starter, beating out incumbent Daniel Evans and Mike Glennon among others. State goes into the season with three capable running backs (Jamelle Eugene, Toney Baker and Andre Brown) that should be able to relieve some of the pressure placed on Wilson.

Boston College will have their hands full in replacing the leadership and skill of Matt Ryan, but at least Chris Crane made it an easy decision as to who the next quarterback would be. Just as pressing a concern is who will help fill the void left by departed running backs L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender. Josh Haden will get a lot of looks as a true freshman, and he has the athletic ability to turn some heads this season. But they do welcome back defensive tackle B.J. Raji (academics) and linebacker Brian Toal (shoulder injury), both of whom missed last season. The Raji/ Ron Brace combo should make for one of the nation's best tackle combos.

On the other side, inexperience abounds which could mean a rise to second place for Butch Davis' North Carolina Tar Heels. Greg Little hit his stride late in the season at running back, and in Hakeem Nicks the Heels have one of the league's best wide receivers. If the defense, that while young has a wealth of ability, can hold its own the Heels could make their way to Tampa come December. Consistency at quarterback was an issue for Miami all season last year, so it'll be interesting to see if the tandem of Robert Marve and Jacory Harris can combine to provide stability. The two-quarterback system could see its first test on September 6^th when Miami head to Gainesville to take on the Gators.

I say "could" instead of "should" because Marve is suspended for the opener, and if Harris plays well enough maybe he takes the job outright for that second game. But in Javarris James and Graig Cooper, head coach Randy Shannon will have one of the ACC's better running back combinations.

Paul Johnson brings the triple option to the ACC at Georgia Tech, but it's going to take some time for the players to get acquainted with the new system. However, the Yellow Jackets will play a role in the Coastal Division race this season, spoiling things for someone late in the year. Virginia had to say goodbye to Chris Long and Branden Albert, both of whom were first round selections. But to watch DE Jeffrey Ferguson and QB Jameel Sewell get dismissed due to academics could mean bad things for the Cavaliers, even with a loaded running back position. The linebackers will also be strong, led by Jon Copper and Clint Sintim.

And lastly, there's a Duke program with a new head coach in David Cutcliffe. It'll take some time for the Blue Devils to get things turned around, but they do have ten starters back on defense and WR Eron Riley is one of the ACC's best. Duke has already surprised some on the recruiting trail, and this should be a more athletic product on the field this season. As for how many more games they can win, I think four wins is a reasonable goal at this point.

The goal of the ACC during their expansion was to create a league that could compete with the nation's elite for national titles and multiple BCS berths. Neither has happened to this point. But to put that pressure on Tommy Bowden and Clemson this season could be a bit much, especially when you consider how much pressure is coming from his own fan base.

Rise & Fall: BCS Conference Review

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:21:22 -0700

In recent weeks, the Rise & Fall series has chronicled the progress (or regress) of college basketball's major conference teams. But if I equated each team to a civilization, I was mistaken. It is really the NCAA conference that equates to a burgeoning civilization or nation, each with its sometimes stable and sometimes rotating member states. Like civilizations, the prestige and power of conferences wax and wane..

Today, we finish with the status of the BCS "power" conferencess. (Check out the Rise & Fall: Data article to see how the league groupings were made).

BCS CONFERENCES

ACC - STATUS QUO

For four of the past five years, the ACC has led the nation in RPI.. and it should be in the running for that title once again in 08-09. UNC is obviously loaded, and Duke could arguably finish 2nd in the league and 2nd in the country. The ACC hasn't had a bad season since 2000, and that trend should continue regardless of how schools like BC and Virginia struggle. Bad teams in the ACC are really just mediocre teams in other leagues. For example, last place finisher BC had a non-conference RPI of 132, which was 26 spots higher than 2nd place Big Ten finisher Purdue.

BIG EAST - STATUS QUO

The Beast is hard to judge because league membership has changed a lot since taking on the CUSA expats in 2005. Its also the largest league in the country with 16 teams. Its conceivable that 9 teams make the Dance in 2009, but its also conceivable that bottom-feeders like DePaul, USF, and St. John's finish with sub-200 RPIs. Though this should be the Big East's best season (perhaps finishing 1st in RPI for the first time since the 90's?), it merely makes up for the past two sub-par seasons.

BIG TEN - DECLINING

Outside of a freak 2006 season (1st in RPI), the Big Ten has been rather weak in recent seasons.. hovering around 5th or 6th in the RPI. Last year was certainly the worst in recent memory with an RPI of 6th and a non-league RPI of 8th (worse than the A10 & MVC). This year should continue this recent trend of mediocrity. Indiana is obviously decimated, perennial doormats Northwestern and Penn State will fill their usual roles, while the recent decline of Illinois continues with the suspension of Jamar Smith. Things aren't all bad.. Michigan State has legitimate Final Four hopes, Wisconsin should pull off its usual surprise success, Purdue is on the right track, and Ohio State brings in another monster class. But whatever success those schools have will be offset by the four or five teams that end up being absolutely awful.

BIG 12 - STATUS QUO

Despite being home to the reigning national champs, the numbers suggest that it was basically an average season for the Big 12 (3rd compared to an average of 4.3 over since 1999). Kansas and Texas have dominated the league for the last decade, with '04 Oklahoma State being the only other Big 12 team to lead the league in RPI. This trend should continue as Texas looks to be the heavy favorites ahead of Oklahoma. Overall, there aren't any major trends to note in the Big 12. Baylor is a team on the rise, but those gains are offset by the decline of Oklahoma State and the recent struggles of Iowa State.

PAC-10 - RISING

Just a handful of years ago, the Pac-10 was the ugly step-child of BCS leagues. From 2000 to 2007, the league was arguably no better than the likes of the MWC or A10. It hit an all-time low in 2004 when the Pac-10 finished 9th in overall RPI. However, the league has regained its lost stature in the last two seasons, in large part due to coaching changes in SoCal. Ben Howland has rejuvenated UCLA, while Tim Floyd has brought back a bit of swagger (and NBA talent) to USC. After being 2nd in the RPI last year, I expect a fall back to the 4-5 range, which is still solid considering the lows a few years back.

SEC - DECLINING (SLOWLY)

From 2000 to 2003, the SEC led the nation in RPI each season. Since that impressive four-year run, things have taken a step back and last season's RPI (4th) is the new norm. While the top could be even better than last year (Florida should rebound and Tennessee should once again be great), it is the bottom tier teams holding the league back. Georgia's been plagued by personnel issues, South Carolina's mired in mediocrity, LSU can't find stability, Auburn is going nowhere, while Arkansas recently lost every talented player on its roster.

- Note that league power isn't quite as fluid as team power, so seemingly small baby steps end up counting more..

BCS

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Pac-10

SEC

High-Major

Atlantic 10

Conference USA

MVC

MWC

WAC

Mid-Major

Big West

Colonial

Horizon

MAC

MAAC

Southern

Sun Belt

WCC

Rise & Fall: The Data

Rise & Fall: Mid-Majors

Rise & Fall: High-Majors