Arizona St

State of '08: The Three-Program States

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 08:47:27 -0700

What is the top D1 basketball program in each state.. and which program is the worst? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a state by state ranking based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

Up today: The four 3-program states.. followed by individual state articles. Note that 8 states have either one or no teams (Alaska). For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

THREE PROGRAM STATES

ARIZONA - Is the gap closing between one and two?..

Arizona - Last year was one of the more disappointing seasons in Wildcat history.. and it only looks to get worse with Bayless going pro and Jennings taking a year abroad in Italy. Still, down years for Arizona are good years for almost any other program, and their RPI of 38th still dominated ASU's RPI of 83.

Arizona State - Herb Sendek is leading a resurgent ASU program that actually finished ahead of Arizona in the conference standings (9-9 to 8-10). Still, ASU was coming off a couple seasons in which they were arguably no better than Northern Arizona.

Northern Arizona - Had this ranking been done last summer, NAU would have given ASU a run for its money. In 06 & 07, NAU dominated the Sun Devils in the computer polls. Despite coming off another solid 19-win season, the Lumberjacks still have to be considered the third fiddle in the Sun State, though #1 in terms of quality of their Mascot.

IDAHO - The Gem State is void of any basketball gems.

Boise State - From 2005 to 2008, the Broncos RPI has improved each season, from 201st to 87th. The improvement culminated in a 24-win season and a surprising trip to the NCAA Tournament. For the standards of Idaho, that's pretty heady stuff.

Idaho State - Despite being in a lesser conference than Idaho (the Big Sky), the Bengals have still managed more success over the last handful of years. In fact, ISU has beaten their in-state rival the last four seasons,

Idaho - One of the saddest programs in the country, Idaho would be more competitive again NAIA competition. Despite an RPI of 299, it was actually Idaho's best season in a couple years as they won 5 games in the WAC.

KANSAS - Putting the Rock in Chalk since 1898..

Kansas - National champions. One of the all-time great programs.. not much to say here.

Kansas State* - Before Bob Huggins came along, KSU was the Nebraska of its state.. always hovering around 110 or so in the RPI, never horrendous but never good. Huggins lured some big names to Manhattan, and though he's long gone, the momentum has carried into the Frank Martin era. While K-State has been better than WSU the last two seasons, it was just their first tournament win in 20 years.

Wichita State* - Mark Turgeon did a great job turning a dormant program back into a winner. WSU won at least 20 games in 04-05-06, and made the Sweet Sixteen in the last of those good seasons. But Turgeon is now at Texas A&M, and it remains to be seen what Gregg Marshall can do in Wichita. Though an improvement over last season's dismal 11-win, 199 RPI season is a lock.. anything more than .500 in the MVC would be overachieving.

* These two programs have had very similar success in the past 5 years. KSU's average RPI is 85.4 to 87.8 for WSU, while WSU has averaged 18 wins to 17 for KSU. But K-State gets an edge for being in a tougher conference, with more respect on the recruiting trail, and for having more historical success.

RHODE ISLAND - The Lamar Odom State

Providence - Since making the Big Dance in 2004, Providence has been going in the wrong direction and Tim Welsh finally lost his job after a promising start. Still, four postseason trips in 7 8** years still takes the cake in Rhode Island.

Rhode Island - URI topped Providence in ~~wins~~ RPI*** for the first time since 1999 thanks to the solid play of Will Daniels and Jimmy Baron. The 21 win season was a nice accomplishment considering the Rams won just 6 games as recently as 2005.

Brown - Perennially, one of the worst teams out there.. Brown is coming off its best season since about the time I was in kindergarten. 19 wins and an 11-3 Ivy record is impressive, but it will take an epic run to move them out of last on this list.

State of '08: The 7 Two-Program States Delaware, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, West Virginia

State of '08: The Introduction

Rise and Fall: Pac-10 Program Review

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:19:22 -0700

Like civilizations, all great basketball programs eventually fall.. replaced by an upstart newcomer. In this week's Rise & Fall series, we'll take a look at which BCS programs are rising, falling, or merely treading water. Up today, the:

PAC-10

ARIZONA - DECLINING (SLOWLY )

While the Brandon Jennings loss hurts, its not the end of the world for this storied program. In fact, a steady decline has been occurring for the last handful of seasons. Bracketing the turn of the century, the Wildcats were a Top 10 RPI team in 8 of 10 seasons, but its hard to imagine those lofty heights being met in the near future. The talent level just isn't what it once was, and with this group, just making the Big Dance will be an accomplishment.

ARIZONA STATE - RISING

In Tempe, there's definitely (and finally) positive momentum building. Herb Sendek was obviously the first key, followed by the big catch of James Harden. With Harden back for another season, some are suggesting this is a Top 15 team. While I wouldn't go that far, this should be the best ASU team since at least 2003 (RPI of 32), and possibly as far back as the mid-nineties.

CALIFORNIA - DECLINING (SLOWLY )

While you might think this program is in a freefall, the reality is that the Bears haven't been good since 2003 (2006 being a flukey interlude). Last year's team won only 6 league games.. and that was with Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin. It would be an amazing accomplishment for new coach Mike Montgomery to match that total. Montgomery and stud recruit DJ Seeley prevent Cal from dropping into the Declining (Quickly) category, but it will take some time to get things back on the right track.

OREGON - STATUS QUO

The Ducks have been frustratingly mediocre for the last decade. In fact, there's only been one Top 30 team in the past 8 years. Last year's experienced team blahed it up to a 9-9 Pac-10 record (the NCAA bid simply being a result of the league's undeserved hype). While the roster turns over with some talented kids coming in, another similar mediocre effort should be in store. For whatever reason, the administration is satisfied with this state of affairs (recently extending Kent's contract), but I'm not as easily impressed.

OREGON STATE - DECLINING (QUICKLY)

In a sense, this is an unfair assessment. Last year's results were such an embarrassment (to not only the program, but D1 basketball in general) that there's really nowhere to go but up. But maybe I'm wrong.. their RPI trend is from 103, to 176, to 198, to 276.. leaving 40 more spots for OSU to fall. (In reality, the Pac-10 schedule strength creates a floor around 280 or so that OSU couldn't possibly fall through unless they literally didn't win a game all season).

STANFORD - STATUS QUO

Last year was impressive, but the Lopez twins were the main reason why. Now they should be back to the trend set in 05-06-07, about 17 wins and an RPI of 60. If anything, it might be a little worse this year, but those middling NIT-type teams should be the norm in the near future.

UCLA - STATUS QUO

Ben Howland has already completed one of the all-time great turnarounds.. turning an 11-win program into a three-time Final Four participant in less than a blink of the eye. Now, there's really nowhere to go but down. But considering the monster class heading to Westwood and the return of Darren Collison, another Final Four trip is certainly within reason. When Final Fours become the "status quo", you know you're doing a great job.

USC - RISING (SLOWLY)

While the one-year OJ Mayo era might simply be replaced by the one-year Demar DeRozan era.. Tim Floyd has already done a good job getting the Trojans back on track. In the last four years, the RPI has risen every season.. and this year's crew should once again fall in the Top 25-30 range. The next step for the program (now that they have the Galen Center) is to add the needed depth that will sustain the growth for years to come.

WASHINGTON - DECLINING (SLOWLY)

From 3rd in the country in 2005, the Huskies RPI has dropped from 35 to 81 to 121.. pretty brutal stuff. But they avoid the dreaded "Declining Quickly" category because I expect big-time improvement this season due to the return of Jon Brockman and an impressive recruiting class. Still, this was a program that was seemingly all the rage a handful of years ago, and now Lorenzo Romar and crew barely register on the national radar.

WASHINGTON STATE - RISING (SLOWLY)

Coming off two of the most improbable Top 25 seasons in college basketball history.. WSU is now at a crossroads. Do they begin the steady slide back into the dark & dank confines of the conference cellar, or does Tony Bennett ride the wave and build up a legitimate Top 25 program? Based on this year's loaded recruiting class (for WSU's standards), the latter seems more likely. While a major drop-off should be expected with Weaver, Low, etc gone.. the future is still bright in Pullman.

- up next & last is the SEC -

Additional Resources:

Rise & Fall: ACC

Rise & Fall: Big East

Rise & Fall: Big Ten

Turnarounds: 31 Teams to Watch For: Part Three

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 May 2008 07:50:42 -0700

With the off-season now upon us and the spring signing period well under way, this is a good opportunity to attempt to forecast some of the teams who could make the jump next season. Is there a team out there like this past season’s Drake Bulldogs, who went from ninth place to a dominating run through the Missouri Valley? Or how about Arizona State, a team that went from dead last in the Pac-10 to fifth place and could have the makings of a conference title run this season? With one pick for each conference, here are 31 teams you should keep an eye on next season.

Part Three

MEAC: Hampton

2007-08 Record: 18-12 (11-5)

Yes, the Pirates finished tied for second in the MEAC last season, but they saw their season come to an abrupt end with a harsh 75-74 loss to eventual conference champ Coppin State in the MEAC Tournament. They do have to replace leading scorer Rashad West, but of the five leading scorers on last year’s team three will be back. Look for Vincent Simpson, Matthew Pilgrim and Michael Freeman to take on even more scoring responsibility next year in attempts to win the MEAC. I think they’ve got a shot at getting to the NCAA Tournament next season, but they will have a fight on their hands from the likes of Morgan State and Delaware State.

Missouri Valley: Creighton

2007-08 Record: 22-11 (10-8)

Head coach Dana Altman was in Fayetteville for about two days before he decided that he had to remain at Creighton. His decision worked out for all parties involved as the Blue Jays notched another 20-win season and won a Postseason NIT game in the process. But more can be done, most notably contend for the MVC championship. With the exciting P’Allen Stinnett and many other key contributors due back next season, Creighton can definitely contend for the crown in 2008-09.

Mountain West: Utah

2007-08 Record: 18-15 (7-9)

Make no mistake about it; UNLV and BYU (if Lee Cummard and Trent Plaisted both return) are the favorites to win the Mountain West. But the slots in the standings behind those two are practically wide open, and the Utes could be the team that moves to the top of that list. The lone contributor to leave was guard Johnnie Bryant, who moved to the bench to make way for JUCO transfer Tyler Kepkay when the season began. Along with Kepkay due back is seven-footer Luke Nevill, who can score with either hand on the low block. With the number of players they have due back, look for Jim Boylen’s bunch to make a move up the standings to an area close to where we’ve been accustomed to seeing their program.

Northeast Conference: Monmouth

2007-08 Record: 7-24 (4-14)

It would be easy to choose Central Connecticut State here and proclaim them a favorite to win the NEC. But why not go way out on a limb and expect a team that only scored 59.2 points per game to compete in the top half of the conference? Last year’s team featured seven freshmen, four sophomores and two juniors. Jhamar Youngblood led the team in scoring with twelve points per game, but the year of experience should help this entire team when it comes to winning basketball games. Not sure how good they can be, but don’t expect the Hawks to be anyone’s whipping boy when conference play rolls around.

Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri St.

2007-08 Record: 12-19 (7-13)

The Redhawks will welcome back three of their top five scorers next season, most notably forward Jaycen Herring and guard Kenard Moore. And their top departing scorer, Brandon Foust, only played in eighteen games last season so the core of this team should be used to playing without him. Six of their losses last season, five of which were in OVC play, were by four points or less and a little change in luck could put them in position to challenge at the top of the league. A change in those five results gives them a 12-8 record in the OVC last year, which would have been good enough for third place in the conference. They’re not too far off; it’s just a matter of finishing the job in crunch time.

Pac-10: Arizona State

2007-08 Record: 21-13 (9-9)

After the abomination that was the Sun Devils’ 2006-07 season, not too many went into last season thinking that come Selection Sunday they’d be debating the NCAA worthiness of Arizona State. But we were, and with stars James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph both returning to Tempe, Herb Sendek may have a team talented enough to make a run at a Pac-10 title. Granted, UCLA will head into the season as the overwhelming favorite and they should. But this has the makings of a big year for Sun Devil basketball, and they should have no problem whatsoever reaching the NCAA Tournament.

Patriot: Bucknell

2007-08 Record: 12-19 (6-8)

Talk about a shocker. Both the Bison and rival Holy Cross were the trendy picks to win the Patriot League; instead they both end up at the bottom of the standings. But the Bison went into the off-season on a positive, knocking off Navy in a Patriot League quarterfinal before losing at Colgate. John Griffin, who hit the miraculous game-winner at Navy, Darren Mastropaolo and Rob Thomas are the only departing seniors. The key to how much of an improvement the Bison make next season will be how they go about replacing head coach Pat Flannery, who retired after fourteen seasons on the job.

Part One: ACC, Big East, Big Ten etc

Part Two: Big 12, CUSA, etc

Part Four tomorrow: SEC, WAC, WCC

2008 NIT Capsule: Arizona State

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 07:14:58 -0700

Arizona State Sun Devils

Pacific 10 (19-12, 9-9)

Seed: #1

RPI: 82

Big Wins: 12/15 Xavier (77-55), 2/10 at Arizona (59-54), 2/14 Stanford (72-68)

Bad Losses: 11/19 at Illnois (54-77), 1/24 Washington (61-72), 2/16 California (73-76)

Coach: Herb Sendek

Probable Starters:

Derek Glasser, Sophomore, Guard, 6.3 ppg, 4.0 apg

Ty Abbott, Freshman, Guard, 9.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg

James Harden, Freshman, Guard, 17.6 ppg, 3.1 apg, 5.0 rpg

Rihards Kuksiks, Freshman, Guard, 5.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg

Jeff Pendergraph, Junior, Forward, 12.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Jerren Shipp, Sophomore, Guard, 6.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg

Jamelle McMillan, Freshman, Guard, 2.4 ppg, 2.1 apg

Christian Polk, Sophomore, Guard, 3.5 ppg, 1.3 rpg

Eric Boateng, Sophomore, Center, 3.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

The amazing turnaround for Arizona State starts with the solid inside-outside combination of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph. Harden, a 6-4 guard, averages a team high 17.6 points per game. The lefty has a smooth stroke and can knock down the three-point shot with ease. However, it is his aggressive and quick steps to the basket that make him such a dangerous scorer. Harden reaches the free-throw line nearly seven times per game and he knocks down nearly 76 percent of his attempts.

Pendergraph is the lone interior scoring threat. He averages 12.5 points and a team high 6.5 rebounds per contest. The 6-9 junior has some nice post moves and must continue to provide a consistent threat under the basket in order to open up the floor for Harden and the rest of the guards. Foul trouble can be an issue for Pendergraph and there is not much depth behind him. Former Duke transfer Eric Boateng averages about 11 minutes per game and he is the only other true post player who the Sun Devils can bring in when Pendergraph is forced to the bench.

Why They Can Disappoint:

With what is practically a four guard starting lineup, rebounding has been a problem for Coach Herb Sendek’s squad. Pendergraph and Harden are the only two players who grab more than four boards a game. Four guards also cause a problem stopping to opposition from getting to the basket. Pendergraph is a decent shot blocker, but with no weak side help to speak of, teams can feel relatively safe scoring in the paint. But the biggest issue of all is the youth of the Sun Devils. Nine players see significant minutes and eight of them are underclassmen. Four of those are freshmen. They have obviously performed quite well up to this point, but the pressure builds in March.

Who To Watch:

Harden and Pendergraph will score, but ASU will need the rest of the team to put up some points. The usual answer is the sharpshooting Ty Abbott. The freshman is a great three-point shooter. However, if the shot is not falling for Abbott, he has trouble scoring in other ways at this point in his career. Point guard Derek Glasser usually sticks to distributing the ball, which he does very well, as opposed to looking to score. Part-time starter Jerren Shipp and wing Rihards Kuksiks, who usually mans the four spot, take most of their shots from beyond the arc and need to look to get to the basket a little more. However, Kuksiks is pretty much only on the floor to shoot and he does it very well when he gets on a roll.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 67.3 (209^th in nation, 8^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 62.3 (43, 4)

Field-Goal Percentage: 46.5 (57, 7)

Field-Goal Defense: 41.2 (54, 3)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 7.1 (127, 2)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 35.6 (145, 7)

Free-Throw Percentage: 74.1 (35, 4)

Rebound Margin: -0.5 (196, 8)

Assists Per Game: 14.4 (100, 5)

Turnovers Per Game: 12.8 (51, 7)

Joel’s Bracket Says: Second Round loss to Southern Illinois

- NIT Capsules

- 2008 NCAA Tournament Coverage & Brackets

- Sign up for CHN's Free NCAA Bracket Challenge.. win a Wii, Guitar Hero, and other prizes!

Thursday's Mid-day Championship Week Update

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 14:25:56 -0700

A little mid-afternoon update on a busy Championship Week Thursday.

How do you spell done?

How do you spell done? U-A-B. The Blazers killed their slim tourney hopes by bowing out early in the CUSA tournament. Their resume doesn't really matter at this point as Mike Davis and co. will be a 3 or 4 seed in the NIT. Tulsa, quietly winners of 9 of 11, has a good chance to make it to the CUSA finals as they face Houston or UTEP next.

Break out the deoderant

Villanova will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. After mercifully ending Syracuse's season, the Wildcats never really had a chance against Georgetown. The Hoyas looked fresh and focused, and are primed to make a Big East title run. Villanova meanwhile pretty much has to sit back and hope other bubble teams bow out as well.

Enough about OJ

Don't get me wrong, OJ Mayo's a great talent. But despite the fact the announcers talked about him for 40 straight minutes (over and over and over), he's not the second coming. He's just a really good talent that also has a lot of flaws.. particularly a tendency to make careless turnovers, take poor shots, and an ugly somewhat flawed release (which can be fixed). Anyways, he's good and was the difference in USC's win over Arizona State.

ASU trailed most of the game and could never mount that one big charge in the 2nd half. Now the Sun Devils just have to pray that they've done enough to impress the voters.. but unfortunately they probably haven't. 5-10 in your last 15 games simply won't cut it.. neither will a non-conference SOS of 304. Villanova, noted above for example, should get in instead.

Wacky A-10

St. Joseph's was somehow the 5 seed to Richmond's 4.. despite being a far superior team. Just one of the consequences of the league's highly lopsided schedule. The Hawks easily blew by the Spiders, and still have an outside chance of reaching the Dance. They match up well with Xavier, and a win in the semis would be their 5th Top 50 victory of the season. Xavier knocked out Dayton, whose bubble hopes have also burst. The Flyers had many chances to make a game of it down the stretch, but lack a true go-to player on offense. Brian Roberts is a nice player.. but he can't break down a defense and take over a game. They'll be a tough out in the NIT.

Locked and Loaded

West Virginia (especially) and Miami (most likely) locked up NCAA Tournament bids with wins today. Miami's win was a ho-hummer against disappointing NC State.. but a 22-9 record and a Top 30 RPI look good to me. WVU was probably in already as well, but now they're looking at a possible 7 seed after beating UCONN.

In or Out: CHN Bubble Predictions

CHN — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:20:17 -0700

Much to Joe Lunardi's chagrin.. everyone thinks they're a bracketologist this time of year. So we asked 7 CHN writers which bubble teams will end up in the field or out.

	JB	RC	JF	RJ	SS	JT	JW
Arizona St	Out	In	In	In	Out	Out	In
Dayton	Out	In	Out	Out	In	Out	Out
Illinois St	Out	Out	In	In	Out	In	In
Ohio St	In	Out	In	In	In	In	In
Oregon	Out	In	Out	Out	In	In	Out
Syracuse	In	In	Out	Out	Out	Out	Out
UAB	Out	Out	In	Out	Out	In	Out
Villanova	Out	Out	Out	In	In	Out	Out

Our Consensus:

Arizona State - In
Dayton - Out
Illinois State - In
Ohio State - In
Oregon - Out
Syracuse - Out
UAB - Out
Villanova - Out

Our Guarantees:

Jason Brubaker's Guarantee: I'll 100% guarantee Syracuse will make the Tournament this year, for two reasons. They've shown they have the talent to beat good teams (Georgetown, marquette), and there's no way the committee wants to listen to another off-season of pleading from Jim Boeheim to expand the field to 128 teams.

Rob Carpentier's Guarantee: The Pac-10 will get 7 teams in because Oregon will beat Washington State, ASU will beat USC and Arizona will win two.

Jeff Fox's Guarantee: Dayton will not make the NCAA tournament - 7th place in the A-10 doesn't cut it, plus they peaked too early - the tournament committee likes teams that get hot late.

Raphielle Johnson's Guarantee: I guarantee that Oregon will be left out of the tournament due to early losses to Nebraska and Oakland. (and that Boeheim will rant about the system when he's once again sent to the NIT)

Shawn Siegels's Guarantee: Its a moral certainty that UAB will not make it.. they haven't won a Top 50 game all year and won't do so in the CUSA tournament.

Jon Teitel's Guarantee: I'm 100% certain that the loser of the Big East Tournament 1st round game between Villanova and Syracuse will not make it, as no conference is getting 9 teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Joel Welser's Guarantee: Jim Boeheim will be mad, but losses to Cincinnati and South Florida have doomed the Orange.

Bracketology: Reader Mailbag

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 16:00:34 -0700

Bubble time is not only a fun time, but its a testy time.. after all, everybody wants their favorite team to make the Big Dance. Thus the amount of emails I gets grew substantially since this year's Daily Bracketology started. In honor of some of the better, and more repeated emails, here are some reader questions and responses (edited slightly to fit into an article)..

-- Question From Grant (Oregon fan):

Hey Shawn, I appreciate your brackets, but as a pac-ten fan I noticed something inconsistent Sunday.

1. First off, Arizona has no business being in over Oregon or ASU. Both teams finished ahead of Arizona, playing the EXACT same conference schedule, and both teams swept Arizona. While Arizona has a great SOS and RPI, neither Oregon nor Arizona State have atrocious SOS. The ONLY way you can justify putting Arizona in is RPI.
2. So, if you like to only look at RPI, that's fine. However, Oregon and ASU finished the same in conference, split their h2h, and Oregon has a better RPI.

You see now how this doesn't work. Either you go with RPI or you don't.

My response:

First off, the purpose of bracketology is to project what the committee would/will do.. and not to repeat what I think is right. Personally, I think all three of the teams mentioned are overrated and shouldn't be in the field (each is boosted by being in a name conference.. while none did anything terribly impressive in non-conference play). Second of all, though your comments make perfect logical sense.. I wouldn't give the committee too much credit for being rational. You may have noticed.. they tend to make poor decisions. Missouri State had a 21 RPI a couple years back and didn't make it.. yet Zona with a 29 RPI is almost a lock to make it simply because they're in the Pac-10 and not the MVC. Part of doing a bracketology column is taking into account the committee's biases and faulty reasoning.

In terms of ASU vs Oregon, I think the committee will basically focus on the RPI's of each team's good wins. Both have two wins over Arizona and one over Stanford. But they'll like Xavier (9 RPI) better than KSU (45), and then ASU has an extra Top 50 win against a team the committee will probably like a lot (USC). That is the slightest of differences.. and ultimately these team's resume are highly similar. If one gets in an

-- Question From Thomas (Dayton fan):

Shawn, can you tell me why you and so many other pundits have the likes of Virginian Tech, Maryland and Florida in over Dayton.

(Thomas then went into a lengthy and well reasoned statistical analysis of why Dayton is better.)

My response:

(First off, note that VT, Maryland, and Florida are no longer in the field ahead of Dayton.. as this question was from a few days ago. But Flyer fans have been the most consistent emailers, so I wanted to generally respond to the woes of the Dayton fan.)

The issue with Dayton is this.. they're in the A10 and not the Pac-10. That's really what it comes down to. As I noted in the above response.. part of doing bracketology is taking the committee's bias into account.. and historically they've favored the BCS conference. I think the upsets of this week of Gonzaga in the WCC and South Alabama in the Sun Belt will be damning to Dayton. The committee is willing to give mid-major leagues a 2nd bid here and there.. but with the WCC possibly getting three bids, the Sun Belt possibly getting two, and the A10 getting two.. you can imagine committee members who will simply be blown away, flabbergasted if you will, by the possibility that these spots are being taken away from BCS leagues.

Even worse.. Dayton's big wins can be explained away. The committee can reason that Louisville wasn't at full strength then.. and thus that win isn't so great. For the Pitt game, they'll say that Mike Cook had just gotten hurt, Fields missed half the game, and how it was a trap game for the Panthers..

Ultimately though, I agree with Flyer fans that Dayton should in fact make the field.

-- Question From Scott (Butler fan):

I enjoy and follow your daily Bracketology and am a big fan of the site. My question is your dropping Butler from a four seed to a six.

My response:

(Since this email, I've moved Butler up to a low 5 seed, but the point is the same.) Three little words: RPI. There are no doubt arguments Butler should get as high as a 3 seed. For example, Butler is currently the 12th ranked team in country.. going by the AP voters then, Butler should really get the last 3 seed. Going by wins.. Butler has 28, which is 3rd overall in the country, behind only UNC and Memphis. Thus Butler should get a 1 seed. Further, this is not Drake or Saint Mary's, ie programs with losing histories, but a storied program that has consistently been good and consistently beaten top opponents.

The RPI of 18 and SOS of 130-something will simply be too much for the positive arguments to overcome. The unfortunate thing for Butler is that they didn't actually schedule lightly.. but a lot of the big teams they scheduled won't make the tournament. Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Southern Illinois, Texas Tech, Florida State, Bradley.. those are either BCS teams or teams that many thought had a great shot to make the NCAA Tournament. Butler beat them all.. and though one of them might get in.. but it would have helped if 2 or 3 of those teams ended up being tourney-worthy. Then of course, there was the dud against Drake.. the only legitimate Top 25 team Butler faced this season. The loss at home looks bad.. and since it was so late, there wasn't enough time to make up for it.

Ultimately, I think Butler will get a low 5 seed or the top 6 seed.. and I think it will be a rare occasion where the committee is right. Despite the great record and respect from voters, I don't think the overall resume warrants a Top 16 seed.

(And if Butler happens to lose tonight, then look out..)

Daily Poll: Will The Pac-10 Get Seven Bids?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 10:49:44 -0700