Game Predictions

NIT Finals Prediction: UMASS vs Ohio State

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:31:03 -0700

UMASS (25-10) vs Ohio State (24-13)

7:00 PM ESPN

On the most part, this year's NIT has been relatively bland with home teams and favorites winning most of the games. UMASS is somewhat of a surprise since they did have to win a road team to get to the semifinals (Syracuse) and then knocked off a BCS favorite at MSG (Florida). While the Minutemen have had a nice run.. Ohio State is my choice to win the title. The Buckeyes were CHN's favorite to win the tourney to begin with, so I'm sticking with them. One simple reason is that though UMASS beat Syracuse & Florida to get here, OSU had no problems with those teams earlier in the year, beating Florida by 13 and Syracuse by 14. Ohio State is a better team now as they've found a condensed rotation (ie, not as much Diebler Terwilliger) and more consistent play from their leaders. Kosta Koufous is shooting an impressive 69% over the last 5 games. For UMASS, they haven't been winning with the ease of OSU, but the emergence of Dante Milligan (in the final weeks of his career no less) has helped overcome some offensive struggles by leader Gary Forbes. Ohio State is 3.5 point favorites, and I like them straight up and against the line.

Prediction: Ohio State

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 110-66)

April 1st - UMASS vs Florida (2-0)

March 24th - Dayton at Illinois State (3-0)

March 23rd - Davidson vs Georgetown (2-1)

March 21st - Davidson vs Gonzaga (0-3)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Game Predictions: NIT Semifinals

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 12:10:24 -0700

A companion to our daily Three Stars of the Day, we present the top three Games of the Night.

UMASS (24-10) vs Florida (24-11)

7:00 PM ESPN2

You have to respect these teams for making to the Garden by actually winning road games. The win at Syracuse wasn't shocking for UMASS as they already beat the Orange at the Carrier Dome and generally had a better season. Florida's win was a bit more surprising considering the final 70-57 margin wasn't even close, it was across multiple time zones, and ASU had been very successful at home. UMASS will need a big effort from CHN Fourth Team All-American Gary Forbes, who has struggled during the NIT run. He's just 6-24 over his last two games, which won't cut it against a Billy Donovan team. The Gators are favored by 4 but I like the Minutemen.

Prediction: UMASS

Ole Miss (24-10) at Ohio State (23-13)

9:00 PM ESPN2

Ole Miss hasn't been very good away from home this season, but they did have to beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg to get here. I don't put much stock into that win because I have little respect for the Hokies talent. Tonight should be a big challenge for the Rebels against an OSU team that returns to the Garden after playing here in the Preseason NIT. Unlike VT, Ohio State has similar strengths (PG & C) as Ole Miss. The individual Chris Warren vs Jamar Butler and Dwayne Curtis vs Kosta Koufous matchups should be worth watching.

Prediction: Ohio State

There's a CBI finals game tomorrow night, but really, does anyone care?

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 108-66)

March 24th - Dayton at Illinois State (3-0)

March 23rd - Davidson vs Georgetown (2-1)

March 21st - Davidson vs Gonzaga (0-3)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Today's Game Predictions: NIT & CBI

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 08:26:02 -0700

UMASS (23-10) at Syracuse (21-13)

7:00 PM ESPN

This is a rematch of an early-season game in which UMASS beat Syracuse by 7 at the Carrier Dome. Despite that result, Syracuse is somehow favored by 7 points this time around. Why? The Orange are the same mediocre team they were then, they still make the same poor decisions down the stretch, and Donte Greene still loves to miss three-pointers. Was it the 6 point win over Robert Morris that wows the bettors.. or is it the fact Maryland actually led 54-53 with 12 minutes to go last time out. It might be too much to ask UMASS to win on the road here, but I like the road dog against the spread.

Prediction: Syracuse

Florida (23-11) at Arizona State (21-12)

9:00 PM ESPN

For some reason, the line here is closer than the above game with ASU only favored by 3.5 points. Yet Florida is a very poor road team (their best win was against Georgia), while ASU is tough to beat at home (only one Non-Top 25 home loss to Cal). I'm not a big Sun Devils fan by any means, but I don't think the Gators have much of a shot.

Prediction: Arizona State

Tulsa (22-13) at Bradley (19-15)

9:00 PM ESPN

Tulsa is probably the hottest team left in the CBI, but they haven't won a true road game since facing East Carolina back on February 13th. Bradley overcame a 13 point half-time deficit to beat Ohio in the quarterfinals.. but you have to question a team that can get in such a hole against such a mediocre team. Still, I'll go with the home team solely due to the home-court advantage as Tulsa only has 3 true road wins all season.

Prediction: Bradley

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 108-66)

March 24th - Dayton at Illinois State (3-0)

March 23rd - Davidson vs Georgetown (2-1)

March 21st - Davidson vs Gonzaga (0-3)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Today's Game Predictions: NIT & CBI

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:45:59 -0700

Dayton (22-10) at Illinois State (25-9)

7:00 PM ESPNU

Was the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament not enough for you? If that's the case.. the NIT picks up the slack tonight with multiple televised second round games. Dayton got an unfair shake by getting a 3 seed and having to go on the road for this second round game. Illinois State struggled against Utah State, a notoriously poor away team, which is a bad sign against a better Flyers squad. The Redbirds are favored by 6.5 which seems like a bit much to me. I'll go with the road dog here, especially against the spread.

Prediction: Dayton

Utah (21-13) at Tulsa (18-14)

9:00 PM

I'm not a fan of the CBI, but this should be more competitive than the rest of the NIT games. Tulsa's been playing well of late, and I underestimated them in both the CUSA Tournament and against Miami in their opening round game. In the last 14 games, their only losses are two Memphis twice and UAB. I won't make the mistake of underestimating them again, though I'm certain Utah would win on a neutral court or at home.

Prediction: Tulsa

UAB (23-10) at Virginia Tech (20-13)

9:00 PM ESPN

The Hokies are 8 point favorites, which seems like an appropriate total. Still, I think the Blazers have a better shot at the road upset compared to Cal at Ohio State and Nebraska at Ole Miss. Va Tech is 12-2 in home games, with losses to just Miami and Duke, so you'd be foolish not to pick them to win. The spread though is enticing.

Prediction: Virginia Tech

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 105-66)

March 23rd - Davidson vs Georgetown (2-1)

March 21st - Davidson vs Gonzaga (0-3)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Today's Top Game Predictions: Davidson vs Georgetown

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 09:38:20 -0700

Davidson (10) vs Georgetown (2)

2:50 PM CBS

Understand that my NCAA Tourney picks have been brutal.. so if you plan on betting, its probably best to do the opposite of what I say. With that out of the way, I'm going with favored Georgetown this afternoon (straight up & against the spread). Unlike Gonzaga, the Hoyas will control the game at their own tempo. Unlike Gonzaga, Georgetown is a very good defensive team. And unlike Gonzaga, Georgetown doesn't have the consistent inability to close out games.

Prediction: Georgetown

Butler (7) vs Tennessee (2)

12:30 PM CBS

My gut tells me that Tennessee is slightly overrated and that not only will Bulter cover the 4.5 point spread, but that the Bulldogs will flat out win the game. But my realist side says that Tennessee is better than they looked against American when Chris Lofton only hit one shot.. and that Butler isn't as dominant as they looked against South Alabama when Pete Campbell hit 8 threes. For Butler, the real key isn't what you'd think, bombing away from three, but whether or not Matt Howard can hold his own against the Vols physical front line. This game should be close, but I favor Tennessee straight up but Butler in Vegas.

Prediction: Tennessee

Siena (13) vs Villanova (12)

12:10 PM CBS

My predictions have been brutal this postseason.. but I did predict Villanova would make the Sweet Sixteen. So I'm picking them here solely for personal satisfaction.. Regardless of that though, the Cats are capable of being a great team on a good day. And unlike anyone Vandy has, Scottie Reynolds is a true go-to clutch guard that won't get down even if Nova falls to an early deficit.

Prediction: Villanova

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 103-65)

March 21st - Davidson vs Gonzaga (0-3)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Today's Three Big Game Predictions: Gonzaga vs Davidson

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 09:16:50 -0700

Davidson (10) vs Gonzaga (7)

12:25 PM CBS

Hopefully this lives up to top game billing, unlike USC/K-State which ended up being a dud. Have the Trojans showed up yet?.. Anyways, everyone loves Davidson, but Gonzaga still had the better results on the season. All you have to know is 9-7 against Top 100 teams for Gonzaga and 0-3 for Davidson. Granted, Belmont didn't have a Top 100 either and they almost beat Duke.. so the numbers can be deceiving. Davidson also has something that Belmont or Gonzaga for that matter doesn't have.. a go-to star in Stephen Curry. Because of that, you have to give Davidson an advantage down the stretch. Who does Gonzaga go to? Jeremy Pargo? That's not going to cut it. Still, I'll go with the Zags.. but more importantly, lets just hope this game lives up to expectations.

Prediction: Gonzaga

Saint Mary's (10) vs Miami (7)

12:30 PM CBS

Another quality 10-7 game that will be overshadowed by Davidson/Gonzaga. Amazing that a higher seeded ACC team is getting such little respect compared to a lower seeded SMC team. The Hurricanes are about a 0.5 point favorites (depending on the line), and most polls suggest that slightly more people are picking SMC to win in their brackets. These teams have very similar makeups according to the numbers, both are 1 game over .500 against Top 50 teams, both were Top 25 in non-conference RPI and both have won 7 of their last 10 games. I like SMC a little bit more though because they're not so dependent on one player like Miami is of Jack McClinton. If McClinton gets hot from downtown, then Miami has the edge, but if SMC holds him to under 20 they'll win.

Prediction: Saint Mary's

St. Joseph's (11) vs Oklahoma (6)

7:10 PM CBS

The A10 got off to questionable start yesterday with Temple looking lost against MSU, and Xavier not waking up until after falling behind a 14 seed by 11 points. Before yesterday, I was fairly confident in picking St. Joe's as an upset in most of my brackets.. but that Temple debacle really stuck out to me. Then again, Baylor's showing didn't do any wonders for the Big 12 either. Early in the season, neither of these teams looked tourney worthy, but both rebounded to have solid.. though certainly not exceptional seasons. The key matchup here is heralded OU freshman Blake Griffin against St. Joe's Ahmad Nivins. Nivins gets overlooked compared to Pat Calathes, but is every bit as talented. St. Joe's doesn't use Nivins nearly enough in my opinion, but needs to force him the ball to make Griffin work.

Prediction: St. Joseph's

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 103-62)

March 19th - New Mexico at California (1-2)

March 18th - Mt St Mary's vs Coppin State (2-1)

March 14th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Today's Game Predictions: NIT & Play-In Game

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 10:47:49 -0700

Mount St. Mary's (18-14) vs Coppin State (16-20)

7:30 PM ESPN

For an amazingly in-depth preview of these two teams.. check out Raphielle Johnson's Opening Round preview. He somehow knows more about these teams than I could ever know. But what I do know is that although Coppin State has won 12 of 13 games, the MEAC is awful (though not nearly as bad as the SWAC), and thus the Mount is the safe pick.

Prediction: Mount St. Mary's

Maryland (18-14) at Minnesota (20-13)

9:30 PM ESPN

Because NIT games are not on neutral courts, the spreads on most of the games are rather large. But this game has a relatively tight 3 point spread thanks to the perception that Maryland and the ACC are better than Minnesota and the Big Ten. Also helping Maryland's cause is that they've had some success away from College Park, beating UNC, BC, Wake Forest amongst others. But I think more important than records, is simply how much these teams want the win. Maryland collapsed late in the season (losing 5 of 6), while Minnesota showed some renewed heart in the Big Ten tournament.

Prediction: Minnesota

Rhode Island (21-11) at Creighton (21-10)

10:00 PM ESPNU

These seem like the most evenly matched teams in the NIT's opening round, but of course home-court makes Creighton a healthy 7 point favorite. The Bluejays played two A10 teams earlier in the year, knocking off St. Joseph's at home and losing in Cincy to Xavier. Those games suggest that Creighton has enough talent to beat a URI team that blew their chance to make the Big Dance, losing 7 of 8 games.. many of which went down to the wire. Against the spread, I actually like URI who has better individual talent, but the Rams struggle to win close games.

Prediction: Creighton

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 100-59)

March 15th - Kansas vs Texas (2-1)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Final Four: CHN Writer Predictions

CHN — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 20:04:26 -0700

Need help picking the Final Four? CHN writers give their predictions below and we try and come up with some semblance of a consensus. The only real consistent choice is that they all love UCLA. See how these picks compare to CHN's Official Prediction.

Writer	Brubaker	Carpentier	Fox	Johnson
Champ	UCLA	UCLA	UCLA	Memphis
Finalist	Kansas	Tenn	UNC	UNC
Final 4	Memphis	Texas	Memphis	G'Town
	UNC	USC	Kansas	Xavier

Writer	Teitel	Tomassini	Wesler	White
Champ	UCLA	UCLA	UNC	UCLA
Finalist	UNC	LVille	UCLA	UNC
Final 4	Texas	Stanford	Stanford	Stanford
	Wisconsin	Kansas	G'Town	G'Town

Writer Consensus

Champion: UCLA (6 of 8)

Runner Up: UNC (4 of 8)

Final Four

East: UNC (6 of 8)

Midwest: Georgetown/Kansas (3 of 8 each)

West: UCLA (7 of 8)

South: Memphis/Stanford (3 of 8 each)

Today's Game Predictions: Conference Finals

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 09:08:42 -0700

A companion to our daily Three Stars of the Day, we present the top three Games of the Night.

#5 Kansas (30-3) vs #8 Texas (28-5)

3:00 PM ESPN

Although Texas has a higher RPI, 4 more Top 50 wins, and a stronger SOS.. Kansas is still favored by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. This is partly due to the game being held in Kansas City, and partly due to the false perception that Kansas is a great team. I actually think is should be a simple pick'em.. so I'm going to pick Kansas to win, but suggest that Texas is a much better bet.

Prediction: Kansas

Clemson (24-8) vs #1 UNC (31-2)

1:00 PM ESPN

Perhaps decades of underachievement are suddenly behind Clemson? They beat Duke in the semis and now face nemesis UNC who barely beat the Tigers twice in OT. Ty Lawson didn't play in the last game in Chapel Hill, and though Roy Williams can claim he's only 80%, it's still a major difference. The Tar Heels are 6 point favorites.. which seems like an appropriate amount.

Prediction: UNC

Georgia (16-16) vs Arkansas (22-10)

3:30 PM ESPN2

It's hard to say whose a bigger surprise.. Georgia in the SEC or Illinois in the Big Ten? Either way, it would be an amazing wrinkle on Selection Sunday if one of these pedestrian squads snuck into the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas is a heavy favorite, which isn't surprising consider Georgia has a sub 100 RPI and played 80 minutes of high quality basketball yesterday. Still, it was the Bulldogs who won 82-69 the last time these teams met. Georiga's already knocked off three Top 60 teams on their way to the title game.. but I'm not sure they have any magic left.

Prediction: Arkansas

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 98-58)

March 14th - St. Joseph's vs Temple (1-2)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)

Game Predictions: SJU/Temple, UCLA/Stanford

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 08:55:30 -0700

Saint Joseph's (21-11) vs Temple (20-12)

6:00 PM

Many think that St. Joe's locked up a tourney bid by beating Xavier yesterday.. but I'm not so sure. If Temple wins, the committee may be reluctant to give the A10 a third bid, especially in light of the WCC already getting 3 teams in. Either way, this should be an extremely close and competitive game. Both of their previous meetings were decided by a single point.. and there's no reason not to expect a hard-fought, neck and neck game throughout. This is a must watch game.. but unfortunately most won't see it.

Prediction: Saint Joseph's

#11 Stanford (26-6) at #2 UCLA (30-3)

6:00 PM CBS

Some have the perception that conference tournaments don't matter for Top 25 teams, but extreme effort and a high level of play can be expected in the Pac-10 title game. Stanford is still bitter about their controversial OT loss to the Bruins just 10 days back.. and is hungry to exact revenge. Considering UCLA is the #2 team in the country and the game is in LA, its a testament to the respect Stanford has that they're only 3 point underdogs. The Brook Lopez/Kevin Love matchup is as good as you'll find in college basketball.

Prediction: UCLA

Boise State (24-8) vs New Mexico State (21-13)

9:00 PM ESPN2

Its certainly been a disappointing year for the WAC.. no serious at-large contenders and an eventual champion that might be seeded below the likes of Austin Peay, Cornell, Belmont, etc. New Mexico State has been playing good ball of late though, winners in 10 of 11, and they get to host the Championship game. Due to the home-court advantage, the Lobos are heavy 7 point favorites. Based on how other non-neutral final games have gone (American over Colgate, USD over Gonzaga, etc), its a no-brainer to go with the home team here.

Prediction: New Mexico State

Other Big Games:

UNLV vs BYU - The MWC Title game (BYU)

Akron vs Kent State - The MAC Title Game.. can Akron steal a bid? (Kent State)

Pittsburgh vs Georgetown - Can G'Town be stopped? No (Georgetown)

Previous Game of the Night (Predictions, 97-56)

March 13th - Ohio State vs Michigan State (2-1)

March 12th - Arizona State at USC (2-1)

March 12th - Syracuse vs Villanova (2-1)

March 11th - IUPUI at Oral Roberts (3-0)

March 10th - Gonzaga at San Diego (1-2)

March 9th - Florida at Kentucky (1-2)

March 8th - UNC at Duke (2-1)

March 5th - Tennessee at Florida (2-1)

March 4th - UNLV at New Mexico (3-0)

March 3rd - Texas Tech at Kansas (3-0)

March 2nd - Clemson at Maryland (1-2)