College Basketball: Monday Mailbag
Each Monday, Joel Welser opens up his mailbag to answer
fan questions. One question is chosen each week to be answered by a
few college assistant or head coaches. At the end, Joel also includes
some timely college basketball tidbits. If you'd like to ask Joel a
question or if you'd like to read past editions, check out the
Monday Mailbag archive.
Coaches Question
Do you think experience is
in some ways overrated in how experts rank teams? Duke is playing great
with two starting freshmen, and Syracuse has shown how you can win a
championship led by a freshman, so why do the media and coaches continuously
overlook quality young teams?
Isn’t it possible for a
program to have success with freshmen or is it too big of a leap to Division
I basketball for any team to pull off NCAA success with such an
inexperienced squad?
From Dan,
Madison, Wisconsin
Coach Ernie Zeigler – UCLA Assistant
I do not think experience is overrated in trying to rank
teams. Although some freshmen are undoubtedly ready to perform at a high
level, it is too difficult to gauge how well any freshmen will adapt to all
the things in their new environments. The programs that have experienced
guys usually will have success but there is not an exact science to
forecasting which teams will be the best at the end of the season. This is
why it is great we have a system that will determine who is the best at the
end of the season without regards to any ranking systems.
There is no doubt a program can have NCAA success with
freshmen leading the way, but I think the bigger question is how many
freshmen are in the core group of the squad? The last 3 NCAA Champions,
North Carolina, UConn and Syracuse all had experienced upper classmen in
their main core of guys with talented freshmen included in the group. I
believe this will be the formula of most successful NCAA teams, a blend of
both experience and extremely talented freshmen. It will be very hard for us
to see a repeat of Michigan's Fab 5 Freshmen leading a team to the Final
Four and National Championship game.
Coach Mark Slessinger – Northwestern State Assistant
Sure, teams from the major conferences have a great
chance to succeed, if the freshmen are the top recruits in the entire
country, which happened with Syracuse and Duke. There are high school kids
at that level who can legitimately choose between the NBA and the NCAA and
compete at either level based on their talent level, so yes, a top recruit
can come into a college program and make an immediate impact on the national
scene. You put 2-3-4 of the top 10-15 players in a recruiting year together
on a college roster and experience has shown that can produce success.
I don't feel that overall, media and coaches overlook young teams. There are
enough chances at the blue blood end of college basketball for young teams
to prove themselves early in a season and we've seen that happen. I think
the ratings are fair. There are a lot of X factors that go into figuring out
a Top 25 vote or a preseason poll. A veteran team is proven based on what
they've done previously and no question, they're a safer choice early in the
season and over the long haul, so they get more consideration than a team
relying on young players who are new to college basketball -- unless they're
very obviously the can't miss recruits.
From our perspective, whether a 'mid-major' program can have success with
freshmen depends on the number of freshmen. If you have too many at one
time, it's just asking a lot, and we went through that four years ago and
won six games. We lost several others that had more to do with our
inexperience than our talent level. Now we've turned it around and we're
winning games because we know we can, we know what to do and because we've
played tough non-conference schedules, our guys have lined up against some
of the best teams in the country and held their own at times. Now that the
8-in-5 rule has been eliminated, a team loaded with
freshmen could be competitive in a mid-major conference. You need numbers
because at our level, more often than not, freshmen aren't ready to be the
pivotal players even though in some cases they may be the more talented
players.
Joel,
How real are the Gators? Florida's my home state and
I'd like to believe they're legit, but I haven't yet been convinced that
this success will last throughout the entire season.
Wander
Durham, North Carolina
I’m not convinced yet either, but it is an impressive
start. The verdict is still out on how notable wins against Wake Forest and
Syracuse really are, but they are obviously good wins at this point. If it
wasn’t for the free throw line, the Gators could have easily lost to a down
Seminole squad. Consistency is the key to continued success and, with such
a young squad, that is an iffy proposition at best. While sophomores
Taurean Green, Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Joakim Noah have done a
tremendous job starting thus far this season, one can’t help but think a bad
break here or there could send such a young squad into a downward spiral.
Florida does deserve all the early season accolades and
the top 15 ranking. I don’t think they are deep enough or experienced
enough to hold on to it. If Billy Donovan can manage to hold the young guys
together, they will be a tournament team; and lose to Manhattan in the first
round or something.
Joel,
Which team from a traditionally one bid conference has
done well so far that we should look out for come March?
From Kurt,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
It’s not much of a surprise, but how about Bucknell out
of the Patriot League. The Bison are 5-0 and have road victories over
Rider, Niagara, DePaul and Syracuse. Pat Flannery’s squad has upcoming home
contests against Villanova and St. Joe’s to try and ice their position as
one of the best mid-majors. Even with some non-conference losses, the Bison
are the clear favorites to come out of the Patriot League, where they will
once again do some serious damage.
Winthrop, representing the Big South, and Iona from the
MAAC, are a couple more teams that have performed well early in the season.
Harvard may not be a March threat, but they will make the Ivy more than the
traditional two horse race.
Have a question? Email Joel at
jwelser@collegehoops.net, Re: Monday Mailbag. We’ll post and answer as
many as possible. Please include your first name and home state and put
Monday Mailbag in the email title.
Joel’s Thoughts of the Week
If you started attending Akron four years ago, you would
never believe or expect what was to come athletically for the school. The
football squad will make their first bowl appearance after a thrilling last
second victory in the MAC Championship game led by the heroics of wide
receiver Domenik Hixon. The men’s soccer team even made the “Final Four,”
losing in penalty kicks to Maryland over the weekend. And now the
basketball team is looking for its first post season berth since 1989. Nick
Dials, a former Buckeye, made a miraculous recovery from a torn ACL to lead
the backcourt. And if that wasn’t enough, there is even a guy named Bubba,
although he looks a lot more like an Adam. It’s a great time to be a Zip,
and that doesn’t happen very often.
Southern Illinois and Charlotte might be the biggest
disappointments of the young season. While SIU shows no sign of recovery,
the 49ers have won four in a row and will still be a threat in the A10.
Isn’t it odd that half of Notre Dame’s team look like
leprechauns? Luke Zeller has a job as the mascot after his playing days are
over.
http://und.collegesports.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/zeller_luke00.html
Montana better watch out for Montana Western. After UC
Irvine beat Stanford they lost to Cal State University, Stanislaus ten days
later. I went to a Cal State school and I don’t even know where Stanislaus
is located. After a little research, it turns out the Warriors are in
Turlock, California…which doesn’t really help me much. But I’m betting
Calvert Wright is the toast of the town, or village, after hitting the game
winning shot to knock off the Anteaters.
Kennesaw State ended last season 7th in the
polls, the Division II poll. The transition from the Peach Belt Conference
to the Atlantic Sun is starting off with a bang for Coach Tony Ingle. The
Owls won their first two conference home games over favorites Lipscomb and
Belmont this week to find themselves in a surprising spot; on top of the
A-Sun standings. The team from Kennesaw, Georgia wasn’t expected to be able
to compete in Division I quite yet, but they are proving that the Owls will
be a force in the conference this year and for years to come.
Check back each week for Joel Wesler's Monday Mailbag,
and email your question to
jwelser@collegehoops.net
