SEC Fantasy Basketball Preview

    
November 6th, 2008

 

This is the last of six annual fantasy stats projections of BCS conference starters. The lineups are based on the Starting Fives series of articles released two weeks ago, along with a couple of changes due to recent developments.

 

For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's SEC Stats Projection. Here's last year's Alabama projections compared to reality:

 

Alabama Projected vs 2007-08 Reality

G Brandon Hollinger - 6, 2, 3  vs  6, 2, 3
G Mykal Riley - 13, 4, 3  vs  15, 5, 2
F Alonzo Gee - 15, 6, 2  vs  15, 7, 1
F Demetrius Jemison - 8, 6, 1  vs  6, 5, 1
C Richard Hendrix - 15, 10, 2  vs  18, 10, 2

 

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes. My biggest misses are always guys who either win or lose starting spots unexpectedly.


THE SEC


ALABAMA

G Ronald Steele - 11, 3, 5
G Senario Hillman - 8, 2, 2
F Alonzo Gee - 17, 7, 2
F JayMychal Green - 12, 6, 1
C Demetrius Jemison - 8, 6, 1
6 Brandon Hollinger - 6, 2, 3

Notes: Steele is back, but probably won't match the 14 ppg he put up back in 05-06. Green will put up better numbers than any other SEC freshman forward.

ARKANSAS

G Courtney Fortson - 12, 2, 3
G Stefan Welsh - 9, 2, 3
F Montrell McDonald - 12, 4, 2
F Michael Sanchez - 7, 5, 1
F Michael Washington - 8, 8, 1
6 Rotnei Clarke - 8, 2, 2

Notes: McDonald and Fortson are the newcomers who have the best chance of being go-to scorers. Welsh is the only returning guard with much experience, but just isn't that great.

AUBURN

G Quantez Robertson - 10, 5, 4
G Rasheem Barrett - 13, 4, 3
G DeWayne Reed - 9, 4, 4
F Lucas Hargrove - 7, 5, 1

F Korvortney Barber - 16, 8, 1
6 Tay Waller - 9, 2, 2

Notes: Robertson played almost 38 mpg last year, so there's no real room for his production to go up.  Barber has improved each year, and should see another up-tick across the ball as he surpasses 30 mpg.

FLORIDA
G Erving Walker - 10, 3, 4
G Walter Hodge - 12, 3, 3
G Nick Calathes - 16, 6, 7
F Chandler Parsons - 13, 6, 1
F Dan Werner - 9, 7, 1
6 Alex Tyus - 7, 5, 1

Notes: The only guy whose numbers should jump substantially is Parsons, who will play more now that Speights has moved on. Walker should be able to put similar numbers to what recent transfer Jai Lucas could.

 


GEORGIA
G Zac Swansey - 7, 3, 4

G Corey Butler - 8, 4, 2
G Terrence Woodbury - 13, 5, 2
F Jeremy Price - 13, 6, 1

F Albert Jackson - 5, 6, 1
6 Howard (Trey) Thompkins - 11, 5, 1

Notes: Thompkins is a big time prospect, but he's been slowed by injuries in the off-season. Price's numbers should see a substantial rise as he plays near 30 mpg.

KENTUCKY

G DeAndre Liggins - 10, 3, 4
G Jodie Meeks - 13, 4, 3
F Ramon Harris - 7, 4, 1
F Perry Stevenson - 9, 7, 1
F Patrick Patterson - 18, 8, 2
6 Darius Miller - 11, 3, 2

Notes: Miller could be a key offensive weapon off the bench, and Kevin Galloway will also be an important contributor.  Meeks' production should jump 50% from last year.

LSU

G Garrett Temple - 7, 4, 3
G Marcus Thornton - 20, 5, 2
G Terry Martin - 10, 3, 2
F Tasmin Mitchell - 13, 7, 3
C Chris Johnson - 12, 8, 1
6 Alex Farrer - 5, 3, 2

Notes: Mitchell's return is the big addition to the lineup, but he'll take a back to Thornton in terms of scoring. Thornton could score even more, but Trent Johnson's offense might hinder offensive explosions.


MISSISSIPPI STATE

G Dee Bost - 13, 3, 4
G Barry Stewart - 14, 5, 3
F Ravern Johnson - 8, 3, 1
F Brian Johsnon - 6, 6, 1
C Jarvis Varnado - 10, 9, 1
6 Twany Beckham - 8, 3, 2

Notes: I'm high on Bost, and think he can already be one of the team's top players. Stewart needs to be a clutch scorer as well.

 

OLE MISS

G Chris Warren - 17, 2, 4
G David Huertas - 14, 4, 2
G Eniel Polynice - 10, 5, 5
F Terrance Henry - 9, 4, 1
F Malcolm White - 10, 5, 2
6 Zach Graham - 7, 3, 1

Notes: Huertas should continue last year's good finish and consistently score 10-15 per game.  White barely played last year and could be on the of the league's most improved players with sufficient minutes.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA

G Devan Downey - 17, 3, 7
G Zam Fredrick - 14, 2, 3
F Dominique Archie - 14, 6, 1
F Sam Muldrow - 5, 6, 1
F Mike Holmes - 11, 7, 1
6 Brandis Raley-Ross - 7, 3, 3

Notes: South Carolina returns more experience than most SEC team. I don't expect Downey or Fredrick's production to jump much, and instead think Archie and Holmes will see the most improvement.

 

TENNESSEE

G Bobby Maze - 11, 3, 4
G Scotty Hopson - 12, 3, 3
G JP Prince - 11, 5, 3
F Tyler Smith - 15, 8, 3
F Wayne Chism - 13, 7, 1
6 Cameron Tatum - 7, 3, 1

Notes: The Vols starting five should all approach double-digits, and I don't expect anyone one player to dominate the scoring column. JP Prince will miss the first month with a shoulder injury, so perhaps this hinders him the rest of the year.

 

VANDERBILT

G Jermaine Beal - 10, 3, 6
G Brad Tinsley - 10, 3, 3
G Lance Goulbourne - 9, 4, 1
F Darshawn McClellan - 7, 6, 1
F AJ Ogilvy - 19, 9, 2
6 Andre Walker - 5, 4, 1

Notes: I went with Goulbourne at the 3, but Jeff Taylor could take that spot as well. Ogilvy will make a very strong run at SEC Player of the Year honors.

 

Projected SEC Leaders

 

Top PPG
1) Marcus Thornton (20)
2) AJ Ogilv (19)
3) Patrick Patterson (18)

 

Top RPG
1) AJ Ogilvy (9)
2) Jarvis Varnado (9)

3) Barber/C.Johnson/Patterson/T.Smith/Washington

 

Top APG
1) Nick Calathes (7)
2) Devan Downey (7)

3) Jermaine Beal (6)

 

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