Big Ten

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Ohio State's Jerry Lucas

Jon Teitel — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 10:05:47 -0700

Recently CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Ohio State great Jerry Lucas, who led the Buckeyes to the 1960 national title. Lucas won two MOP awards during his career in Columbus, helping lead the Buckeyes to three straight title game appearances. Lucas is one of three players in the history of basketball to have won a title at each of the following four levels: high school, college, NBA and the Olympics.

Jon Teitel: In the 1956 Ohio state high school semifinals you scored a state-record 53 points in a win over Cleveland East Technical, and followed that up with 44 to beat Canton McKinley in the title game for a two-game total of 97 points that is still a state record. Were you just that much better than everyone else, or were you playing against poor defenses?

Jerry Lucas: I was very good while very young: I may have been the best young player who ever lived, although I did not think that much about it at the time. I began playing against All-Americans at age 14 during the summer in Middletown, OH. That Cleveland team was #1 in the state at the time.

JT: In 1957 you led Middletown High to a second straight undefeated state title and broke Wilt Chamberlain's high school scoring record. Did you feel like you were one of the best players in the country, and what was it like to be so famous at so young an age?

JL: I really did not want to be famous and did not aspire to that. In junior high I began to get approached by recruiters and did not like it, so I went to my parents and my coach put the word out for people to stop contacting me. I did not feel special. I just wanted to be a normal kid.

JT: In the 1958 state semifinals your amazing 76-game winning streak came to an end with a one-point loss to an undefeated Columbus North team. How was your team able to win so many games without ever taking a single night off, and what was the feeling like in your locker room after that loss?

JL: We had great teams back then but my sophomore year team was the best. We were just superior so it was difficult to lose, but since we were good winners I hoped that we could be good losers. However, a lot of people tried to make up excuses for our loss.

JT: After an all-star game during your senior year, you convinced John Havlicek and Bobby Knight to join you and Coach Fred Taylor that fall at Ohio State. What did you say to convince them, and where do you think your recruiting class (including Mel Nowell) ranks in the history of college basketball?

JL: I think my sophomore year team was one of the best college teams of all time, but we do not get our just due. It was the first team with five guys who went on to play pro basketball, but it is hard to rank us against others.

1960 NCAA tournament

JT: You had a school record (for tournament play) 36 points and 25 rebounds in a win over Western Kentucky. Were you nervous going into your first tournament game, and how were you able to play so well?

JL: I was a little nervous before every game that I ever played. I worked harder than anyone else I knew, and if you prepare yourself then you will have some confidence.

JT: You had 16 points (7-9 FG) and ten rebounds en route to being named tournament MOP by winning the title over California. What did it mean to you to win the title, and what was the reaction like back on campus?

JL: You play to win and I was the first to win at every level. To be the best at your level in a particular year was an incredible thrill for everyone on the team. It was the first (and currently the only) national title that Ohio State basketball has ever won, and everyone of my age is still excited about it to this day.

JT: In the 1960 Olympics you were the leading rebounder and co-leading scorer for the U.S. team that won the gold medal, and you were a perfect 14-14 from the field in a game against Japan (84 FG% overall during the Olympics). Was that the best team you ever played on, and what are your memories of the Japan game?

JL: It was obviously an incredible team and the best Olympic team the USA had until the pros started playing. I remember the Japan game very well. They were not very big, and being my first Olympic game it was important to me. I had learned a few Japanese phrases so at the start of the game I said "Good morning" to the Japanese center. He looked at me, backed out of the mid-court circle, and bowed to me. He ended up speaking Japanese to me during the whole game and I just kept saying "Ohio", which is ironic because my home state is the Japanese word "good morning"!

1961 NCAA tournament

JT: You had 33 points (14-18 FG) and a school record (for tournament play) 30 rebounds in a win over Kentucky (who had 26 rebounds as a team), becoming the only player to ever have 30 points and 30 rebounds in a single tournament game. Was that the best all-around game of your college career, and how on earth were you able to out-rebound an entire team?

JL: Rebounding was my forte. Some people think I was the best rebounder for my size of all-time. I am the only NBA player besides Wilt to average 20 points and 20 rebounds per game for a season more than once. I remember having a good game against UCLA. Coach John Wooden always spoke highly of me, which is special coming from such a great coach.

JT: You had 27 points and 12 rebounds in the title game and were named tournament MOP despite Cincinnati getting a five-point overtime upset win, which Coach Taylor called a "stupid game" because your team had blown a couple of leads. Did it feel even worse to lose to your in-state rival, and what was it like to be named MOP despite losing the title?

JL: There was not much glory in being named MOP because we wanted to win the title and failed to do so. I believe that was the most devastating loss of my career, as back-to-back titles would have set us apart in college basketball history. We were undefeated and favored to win and there is no doubt in my mind that we had the better team, but Cincinnati just deserved to win.

1962 NCAA tournament

JT: You had 19 points and 16 rebounds in a win over Wake Forest (All-American Len Chappell had 27 and 18 for Wake Forest). Was your team out for revenge going into the title game against Cincinnati?

JL: I got hurt against Wake Forest and my entire leg was bandaged. We were not out for revenge. Cincinnati was just unique because they won two straight titles.

JT: You had 11 points (5-17 FG) and 16 rebounds in a title game loss to Cincinnati after trying to play on a badly-injured knee: was it just the Bearcats' night, or do you think your team could have won if you were healthy?

JL: I think we had the better team during both years but you have to give the Bearcats all the credit in the world. I am not sure if it would have been a different outcome if I was healthy.

JT: You were named All-American and played in the NCAA title game during each of your three years on the varsity, were a two-time national Player of the Year, and are still the only player to ever be a three-time Big Ten Player of the Year. How satisfied are you with your college career, and do you consider yourself to be one of the best players in college basketball history?

JL: You cannot evaluate yourself; that is for others to do. I was pleased with my career and prided myself on being an unselfish player. Some have called me one of the best college players ever. You cannot have one or two players who dominate everything on the court. You need a group of individuals to play together as a team.

JT: In the summer of 1963 you signed with the Cincinnati Royals and ended up being named NBA Rookie of the Year. How did you deal with the high expectations going into your rookie season, and why was it so easy for you to make the transition from college to the NBA?

JL: It was tough for me initially because I had to change positions from center to forward, so everything was different. We played 20+ exhibition games but it took me awhile to learn the position. I wish that I could have played center during my entire pro career, and when I finally got to do so with the Knicks I loved it.

JT: You led the nation in rebounding twice in college, had a franchise-record 40 rebounds in a three-point win over Philadelphia in 1964, and your 15.6 career rebounds per game in the NBA is fourth-most ever. How on earth were you able to get 40 rebounds in one game, and what is your secret for rebounding?

JL: It goes back to when I was a child. I would take 5,000 shots every day with a purpose. I did things that other players never did. I would intentionally miss shots for eight straight hours just to see where the ball would go. I knew where every missed shot was going so 99% of the time I did not block out because I already knew where to go. I also had great timing and determination and the heart of a champion.

JT: In the 1965 All-Star Game you had 25 points and ten rebounds and was named All-Star MVP in a one-point win by the East. What did it mean to you to win such an outstanding individual honor?

JL: It is a great honor for anybody to win MVP when playing with the best players in the world. It was very rewarding and is one of the biggest highlights of my career.

JT: What are your memories of the 1972 NBA Finals (Wilt Chamberlain picked up his 5th foul at the end of regulation in Game 4, but blocked several shots in overtime to lead the Lakers to a five-point win and won his only Finals MVP award after the Lakers won the series in five games)?

JL: There is no way that the Lakers could have beaten us if Hall-of-Famer Dave DeBusschere had not gotten hurt. I have never seen a team that was more out of whack than the Lakers were during Game 1. Wilt later called me the toughest guy he ever played against because I made him do a bunch of things that he was not comfortable doing. When Dave got hurt Phil Jackson came in to replace him, and Wilt just shut him down. The match-ups had started out as incredible in our favor before quickly changing in the opposite direction.

1973 NBA Finals (with the New York Knicks)

JT: You beat the Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on a Sunday and requested that Game 1 of the Finals be delayed until Wednesday, but you had to fly to L.A. for Game 1 on Tuesday after the Lakers denied the request. How exhausted was your team, and how pissed were they when the Lakers stood firm?

JL: We won the series, which was most important. The Celtics game was the first Game 7 that they ever lost in Boston.

JT: All five games of the series were decided by single digits. How close a series was it, and what did it mean to you to win your first NBA title?

JL: It was a very close series. Some of my teammates had previously won a title with the Knicks in 1970, but the 1973 title meant a lot to me because I had not. That is why you play: to be the best.

JT: Winning the series made you the first American basketball player to win championships at every level (high school, college, Olympics, and the pros). How big a deal was it at the time, and how big a deal is it to you now that only two others have done it (Quinn Buckner and Magic Johnson)?

JL: Winning that title was the "jewel in my crown". It was the last thing missing from my championship career. I did not know it until years later when I read it someplace and others began to research it. It might be one of the most unique things in basketball history. Only 3 players have ever done it.

JT: In 1980 you were inducted into the Hall of Fame, in 1996 you were named one of the 50 greatest players in NBA history, and in 1999 you were named to the Sports Illustrated five-man College All-Century Team. Do you consider yourself one of the best players in the history of the sport?

JL: You do not judge yourself, but some of the awards I won have to at least put me in the discussion.

Lucas is also on Jon's list of best fantasy players in Big Ten history.

Illinois: Dee Brown (2006) 1812 PTS (#3), 674 AST (#2), 231 STL (#2), 299 3PM (#2), 2-time All-American, conference POY
Indiana: Calbert Cheaney (1993) 2613 PTS (#1), 55.9 FG% (#2), 3-time All-American, conference POY, national POY
Iowa: Roy Marble (1989) 2116 PTS (#1), 183 STL (#4), All-American
Michigan: Glen Rice (1989) 2442 PTS (#1), 56.9 FG% (#3), 48 3P% (#1), All-American, NCAA MOP
Michigan State: Scott Skiles (1986) 2145 PTS (#3), 645 AST (#2), 175 STL (#2), 85 FT% (#3), All-American, conference POY, national POY
Minnesota: Mychal Thompson (1978) 1992 PTS (#1), 956 REB (#1), 56.6 FG% (#2), 2-time All-American
Nebraska: Dave Hoppen (1986) 2167 PTS (#1), 773 REB (#4), 60 FG% (#2), All-American
Northwestern: Evan Eschmeyer (1999) 1805 PTS (#2), 995 REB (#1), 132 BLK (#2), 59.5 FG% (#1), All-American
Ohio State: Jerry Lucas (1962) 1990 PTS (#3), 1411 REB (#1), 62.4 FG% (#1), 3-time All-American, 3-time conference POY, 2-time national POY, 2-time NCAA MOP
Penn State: Jesse Arnelle (1955) 2138 PTS (#1), 1238 REB (#1), 3-time All-American
Purdue: Rick Mount (1970) 2323 PTS (#1), 84.3 FT% (#5), 3-time All-American
Wisconsin: Michael Finley (1995) 2147 PTS (#2), 371 AST (#3), 168 STL (#4), 213 3PM (#3), 3-time All-American

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:25:26 -0700

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

ACC, A10, Big Ten, SEC Finals Predictions

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:35:45 -0800

This is it, the final day of the regular season, Selection Sunday. Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year and will continue picking each game of the NCAA Tournament.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (29-4, 14-2) at (3) Florida State (23-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Florida State 90-57. RPI: North Carolina 3, Florida State 17. Analysis: The absence of John Henson puts the Heels at a disadvantage. Even if he plays, the Seminoles will cover. Line: North Carolina -6. Pick: Florida State 69, North Carolina 65.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (32-1, 16-0) at (3) Vanderbilt (23-10, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Kentucky 69-63*; Feb. 25 – Kentucky 83-74. RPI: Kentucky 1, Vanderbilt 22. Analysis: Taking Vandy to win. Expect the Commodores to at least cover. Line: Kentucky -7½. Pick: Vanderbilt 71, Kentucky 70.

ATLANTIC 10 CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(3) Xavier (21-11, 10-6) at (4) St. Bonaventure (19-11, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Xavier 77-65. RPI: Xavier 38, St. Bonaventure 76. Analysis: I am all-aboard the Andrew Nicholson bandwagon. Line: Xavier -3½. Pick: St. Bonaventure 69, Xavier 67.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (26-7, 13-5) at (2) Ohio State (27-6, 13-5)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Michigan State 58-48*; March 4 – Ohio State 72-70. RPI: Michigan State 4, Ohio State 7. Analysis: The whole college basketball world – not just the Spartans – should be concerned about the way OSU is playing. Line: Ohio State -1½. Pick: Ohio State 66, Michigan State 60.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 195-147-6

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 06:40:33 -0800

Pac-12 - Title Game
#4 Arizona vs. #6 Colorado, 6:10 p.m. (CBS)

With Selection Sunday just a day away, one of the big questions out there is how the selection committee will deal with the Pac-12. The league that's underachieved in historic fashion this season will get at least one team into the field (since that's the rule), but how many more? Regular season champion Washington and runner-up California have both been eliminated, leaving them at the mercy of the committee. The best thing for a team to do is make sure they remain in control of their own fate, which is what Arizona and Colorado have done by reaching the conference title game.

Colorado, in their first season in the Pac-12, has exceeded all expectations and that's that a credit to the job that Tad Boyle has done. Picked to finish in a tie for tenth in October, the Buffaloes managed to win 11 league games despite some major personnel losses and now sit one game away from their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2003. A balanced effort, with four players reaching double figures, is what got them past Cal on Friday night and a similar performance will be needed if they're to beat Arizona.

As for the Wildcats they've reached the final despite having to suspend point guard Josiah Turner, but to be fair was the personnel loss that big? Sean Miller's team may not have a "perfect" option at the point but they've got some versatile guys who can help with the duties. Nick Johnson has played some point as has Jordin Mayes, and senior Kyle Foog has been a "jack of all trades" kind of player on the perimeter. Add in forwards Jesse Perry and Solomon Hill and you've got a solid nucleus than can give opposing teams fits.

The home team won both of the regular season meetings, with Arizona putting forth the better performance in their victory than CU did in theirs. If Carlon Brown can continue his solid play for one more game the Buffs are more than capable of winning and grabbing that automatic bid, and forward Andre Roberson is a warrior on the glass. Last year's game went down to the wire, with Washington's Isaiah Thomas providing a moment that few will ever forget. With there not being much separating Arizona and Colorado we could be headed towards a similar finish today.

America East - Title Game
#2 Vermont at #1 Stony Brook, 11:02 a.m. (ESPN2)

The top two seeds in America East meet for a trip to the NCAA tournament, and it's interesting that Vermont's loss to Binghamton ended up being the difference. The home team won both meetings, and in a tight gym like Stony Brook's the Seawolves likely hold an advantage there. But with Matt Glass and Four McGlynn among other players, the Catamounts are more than capable of leaving Long Island with the title. For Stony Brook they need a good day at the point from Bryan Dougher, but he's going to have his hands full with Sandro Carissimo being one of the conference's best on-ball defenders.

ACC - Semifinals
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 NC State, 1:00 p.m. (ESPN/ACC Network)
#2 Duke vs. #3 Florida State, 3:00 p.m. (ESPN/ACC Network)

The team with the most to gain in Atlanta is NC State, who may have sealed their trip to the NCAA tournament with their win over Virginia on Friday afternoon. But a win over the Tar Heels, who may not have John Henson (wrist), would be quite the achievement due not only to their NCAA hopes but also he fact that Carolina won both regular season meetings by comfortable margins. In game two it's the rematch of a thriller at Cameron, won by the Seminoles on a Michael Snaer three as time expired (Duke did win the return meeting in Tallahassee).

Florida State's coming off one of the best offensive performances of the season, turning the ball over just 11 times and finishing their win over Miami with an efficiency of 122.1. Ian Miller and company will need to take care of the ball against Duke if they're to win, and with Ryan Kelly out this weekend the Seminole big men will have an edge from a depth standpoint.

Atlantic 10 - Semifinals
#8 Massachusetts vs. #4 St. Bonaventure, 1:00pm (CBS SN)
#2 Saint Louis vs. #3 Xavier, 3:30pm (CBS SN)

Xavier may be in following their win over Dayton last night but why leave anything to chance? In order to reach Sunday's final they're going to have to beat Saint Louis, who is one of the most disciplined teams in America. Rick Majerus has done an outstanding job with the Billikens, and players such as Brian Conklin and Kwamain Mitchell have played well all year long. In the first semifinal it's UMass and St. Bonaventure, which should provide an interesting contrast in styles. Point guard Chaz Williams has been outstanding for the Minutemen, and the same goes for the Bonnies' Andrew Nicholson. If St. Bonaventure can take care of the ball and not end up in a track meet, which is what UMass wants, they'd likely be the favorite to advance.

Big 12 - Title Game
#4 Baylor vs. #2 Missouri, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Both teams have a lot to gain from this one. Baylor, who knocked off Kansas on Friday night, could pick up wins over the top two teams in the conference in consecutive days and that would be quite some confidence boost heading into the Big Dance. As for the Tigers, a win could put them in line for a one-seed if not at the very least having their road to the Final Four goiing through St. Louis. A.J. Walton has been a bit of an unsung hero for the Bears this week, and they're going to need more of the same from him against Missouri's talented backcourt. And it's safe to say that Marcus Denmon is going 0-for-10 as he did in the Tigers' win over Texas.

Big East - Title Game
#4 Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Despite their shared history throughout the years, this is just the second time that the Bearcats and Cardinals have met in a conference tournament final (1981 as members of the Metro Conference). The transformation made by Mick Cronin's team throughout the season has been something else, and with the Bearcats playing as they are a Big East title is definitely possible. The same goes for Louisville with point guard Peyton Siva playing as well as he has in New York. One more solid performance from Yancy Gates could be enough to push Cincinnati to the Big East title, but he'll have his hands full with Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Look for this one to go right down to the wire.

Big Ten - Semifinals
#1 Michigan State vs. #4 Wisconsin, 1:40 p.m. (CBS)
#3 Michigan vs. #2 Ohio State, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

The top four seeds all advanced to the semifinals for the first time in the history of the Big Ten tournament and neither matchup should disappoint. Michigan State swept the regular season series with the Badgers, and as it's been pointed out the 2000 national champions beat the Badgers four times on their way to the title. That's going to be far easier said than done this time around, especially with Rob Wilson playing his best basketball at just the right time. In game two Ohio State and Michigan meet for the third time, with the home team winning both meetings. Jared Sullinger was outstanding in the Buckeyes' win over Purdue and the same goes for Michigan's Trey Burke in their win over Minnesota.

Big West - Title Game
#1 Long Beach State, #3 UCSB, 10:00 pm (ESPN2)

Remains to be seen whether or not the 49ers can grab an at-large bid, but at the very least they'd want to win this one for pride. UCSB has won the last two Big West tournaments, and with Orlando Johnson a third is possible.

Conference USA - Title Game
#6 Marshall vs. #1 Memphis, 11:35 a.m. (CBS)

A Memphis win could make C-USA a two-bid league with Southern Miss being the other team. Should Marshall win, the league is likely looking at three bids. Bubble team will be tuned into this one. Will Barton's played at an All-America level this season, and Marshall's got an experienced group led by Damier Pitts and DeAndre Kane.

Great West - Title Game
#4 NJIT vs. #2 North Dakota, 5:00 p.m.

The winner gets an automatic berth to the CIT, and with North Dakota having won the league last season they'll likely be motivated by the prospects of a repeat. NJIT brings Chris Flores and Isaiah Wilkerson to the table, and a tournament title would be quite the achievement for a program just a few years removed from one of the longest losing streaks in Division I history.

MAC - Title Game
#1 Akron vs. #3 Ohio, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The winner goes to the Big Dance while the loser is likely NIT-bound. Zeke Marshall has played well for Akron and the same goes for Ohio point guard D.J. Cooper. Keith Dambrot's team won the regular season title but the Bobcats are more than capable of knocking them off, evidenced by their resounding win over the Zips in Athens just a couple weeks ago.

MEAC - Title Game
#4 Bethune-Cookman vs. #2 Norfolk State, 1:00 PM (ESPN2)

Regular season champ Savannah State may not be here but the team many expected to win the conference, Norfolk State, is. Kyle O'Quinn is a force inside for the Spartans, and BCC is going to need to account for him if they're to win. On the other side Clifford Reed has relied on a balanced attack, with Adrien Coleman and Kevin Dukes leading four players in double figures with an average of 11.5 points per game.

Mountain West - Title Game
#1 San Diego State vs. #2 New Mexico, 7:00 p.m.(NBC SN)

The top two seeds in the Mountain West meet for the third time this season, with the road teams winning both meetings. UNM's victory came during their huge week that also included a resounding home win over UNLV. The key for SDSU defensively is simple yet difficult to carry out: keep Drew Gordon from consistently establishing position in the paint. Tim Shelton, Garrett Green and DeShawn Stephens will be key in this regard. UNM's going to need their guard to play well given the fact that the Aztecs lean on MWC Player of the Year Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Demetrius Walker has played well off the bench for the Lobos, averaging 15.5 points per game off the bench this week.

SEC - Semifinals
#1 Kentucky vs. #4 Florida, 1:00 p.m. (ABC)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #3 Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

Similar to NC State in the ACC tournament there's one team with a lot to gain and three others who have a good idea where they're headed. Ole Miss moved a step closer to an NCAA berth on Friday night with their win over Tennessee, and a win over Vanderbilt this afternoon would likely put them into the field. Game one is all about confidence, as Kentucky won both regular season meetings by solid margins. If Florida can win that would be quite a boost for Billy Donovan's team, but he's going to need solid play from Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker in order to get the desired result.

Southland - Title Game
#3 Lamar vs. #4 McNeese St., 3:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Much was made of Pat Knight's scathing critique of his senior class, but the fact of the matter is that Lamar hasn't lost a game since. Senior Mike James can score with the best of them provided he exercises good shot selection, and he'll need to do so against a McNeese State team that knocked off top-seed UT Arlington in Thursday's semifinals.

SWAC - Title Game
#2 Texas Southern vs. #1 Mississippi Valley State, 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

The top two seeds meet but there's quite the gap between the Delta Devils and Texas Southern, who would be the three seed had Southern been eligible to compete. Paul Crosby and Cor-J Cox lead the way for MVSU, who dominated the SWAC and play a style similar to what their head coach (Sean Woods) played under Rick Pitino at Kentucky. It would be a major surprise if Mississippi Valley State didn't win this one.

WAC - Title Game
#2 New Mexico State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech, Midnight (ESPN2)

Louisiana Tech pulled off the upset of the night on Friday as they knocked off top-seed Nevada, possibly relegating the Wolf Pack to the NIT. Next up is two-seed New Mexico State, who features Wendell McKines and freshman Daniel Mullings has played good basketball over the last month. The key for Marvin Menzies' team: no mental letdown. One would think that they came into the weekend expecting another shot at Nevada, but they can ill-afford to go into the game underestimating Louisiana Tech.

Conference Semifinals Predictions: ACC, A10, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:48:37 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference semifinals game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (28-4, 14-2) vs. (5) North Carolina State (22-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – UNC 74-55; Feb. 21 – UNC 86-74*. RPI: UNC 3, NC State 44. Analysis: Don’t know what to make of the Henson wrist injury. Stay away from this game. If you must, take the Heels. Line: North Carolina -11. Pick: North Carolina 87, North Carolina State 74.

(2) Duke (27-5, 13-3) vs. (3) Florida State (22-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 21 – Florida State 76-73*; Feb. 23 – Duke 74-66*. RPI: Duke 4, Florida State 22. Analysis: FSU covers and could beat the Devils again. Pick: Florida State 63, Duke 59.

ATLANTIC 10 SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(4) St. Bonaventure (18-11, 10-6) vs. (8) Massachusetts (22-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 8 – UMass 76-67. RPI: UMass 71, St. Bonaventure 86. Analysis: No clue what to make of this line, but St. Bona’s Andrew Nicholson and Minutemen PG Chaz Williams are both really good. Williams is clutch. Line: St. Bonaventure -3. Pick: Massachusetts 73, St. Bonaventure 72.

(2) Saint Louis (25-6, 12-4) vs. (3) Xavier (20-11, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – Saint Louis 73-68*; Feb. 28 – Saint Louis 70-59. RPI: Saint Louis 29, Xavier 59. Analysis: The Billikens will be facing a desperate Xavier squad. They’ll pass the test. Pick: Saint Louis 68, Xavier 61.

BIG TEN SEMIFINALS: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (25-7, 13-5) vs. (4) Wisconsin (24-8, 12-6)

Tipoff: 1:40 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Michigan State 63-60*; Feb. 16 – Michigan State 69-55. RPI: Michigan State 5, Wisconsin 20. Analysis: Baffled by this line. Rob Wilson isn’t going to score 30 points again. Line: Michigan State -4. Pick: Michigan State 58, Wisconsin 48.

(2) Ohio State (26-6, 13-5) vs. (3) Michigan (24-8, 13-5)

Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 29 – Ohio State 64-49; Feb. 18 – Michigan 56-51. RPI: Ohio State 7, Michigan 10. Analysis: When the Buckeyes play well, they’re really good – and they’re playing well now. Pick: Ohio State 74, Michigan 61.

SEC SEMIFINALS: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (31-1, 16-0) vs. (4) Florida (23-9, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Kentucky 78-58; March 4 – Kentucky 74-59*. RPI: Kentucky 1, Florida 21. Analysis: After the regular-season finale, it is obvious this is a bad matchup for the Gators. Line: Kentucky -9½. Pick: Kentucky 79, Florida 66.

(3) Vanderbilt (21-10, 10-6) vs. (7) Mississippi (20-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 16 – Vanderbilt 102-76*. RPI: Vanderbilt 28, Ole Miss 48. Analysis: No contest. Pick: Vanderbilt 81, Mississippi 66.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 182-141-5

Friday Conference Tournament Predictions

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 11:15:17 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every remaining conference tournament including today's loaded schedule. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG 12 SEMIFINALS: AT KANSAS CITY

(1) Kansas (27-5, 16-2) vs. (4) Baylor (26-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Baylor 92-74; Feb. 8 – 68-54*. RPI: Kansas 6, Baylor 9. Analysis: Beating a team three times in a season isn’t that difficult. Beating a team three times with as much talent as the Bears have – that is. Line: Kansas -5½. Pick: Baylor 72, Kansas 67.

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (6) Texas (20-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Missouri 84-73; Jan. 30 – Missouri 67-66*. RPI: Missouri 16, Texas 58. Analysis: Missouri has come to play in the Big 12 tourney. Pick: Missouri 80, Texas 65.

BIG EAST SEMIFINALS: AT NEW YORK CITY

(1) Syracuse (31-1, 17-1) vs. (4) Cincinnati (23-9, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Syracuse 60-53*. RPI: Syracuse 1, Cincinnati 69. Analysis: Was all set to take Cincinnati. Then double-overtime happened. Expect a more impressive performance from the Orange today. Line: Syracuse -7 ½. Pick: Syracuse 63, Cincinnati 52.

(3) Notre Dame (22-10, 13-5) vs. (7) Louisville (24-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Notre Dame 67-65 (2OT). RPI: Louisville 21, Notre Dame 38. Analysis: Louisville’s offense was better Thursday and its defense will give the Irish fits. Pick: Louisville 59, Notre Dame 51.

BIG WEST SEMIFINALS: AT ANAHEIM

(3) Cal-Santa Barbara (19-9, 12-4) vs. (7) Cal-Irvine (12-19, 6-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – UCSB 74-56; Feb. 15 – UCSB 85-62. RPI: UCSB 127, UCI 270. Analysis: It looks like Santa Barbara and Long Beach are on a crash course again. Pick: Cal-Santa Barbara 74, Cal-Irvine 51.

(1) Long Beach State (23-8, 15-1) vs. (4) Cal Poly (18-14, 8-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – LBSU 55-50; Jan. 19 – LBSU 78-69. RPI: LBSU 35, Cal Poly 226. Analysis: Long Beach will win this tournament, but the Mustangs are undervalued and will cover Friday. Pick: Long Beach State 67, Cal Poly 59.

CONFERENCE USA SEMINFINALS: AT MEMPHIS

(2) Southern Mississippi (25-7, 11-5) vs. (6) Marshall (20-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 4 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Southern Miss 67-63; March 3 – Marshall 79-75. RPI: Southern Miss 17, Marshall 56. Analysis: Southern Miss got a huge break after the Herd played double-overtime Thursday and will now have to play for a third straight day. Pick: Southern Mississippi 65, Marshall 54.

(1) Memphis (20-12, 9-7) vs. (4) Central Florida (22-9, 10-6)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – Central Florida 68-67; Feb. 28 – Memphis 84-55. RPI: Memphis 18, UCF 61. Analysis: The Knights do a lot well. Upsetting the Tigers in Memphis will be tough, but they should cover. Pick: Memphis 75, Central Florida 72.

MAC SEMIFINALS: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (21-10, 13-3) vs. (4) Kent State (20-10, 10-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Akron 84-75; March 2 – Akron 61-55*. RPI: Akron 62, Kent State 105. Analysis: Akron goes 3-for-3 against its rival. Pick: Akron 70, Kent State 63.

(2) Buffalo (19-9, 12-4) vs. (3) Ohio (24-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Ohio 60-52; Feb. 22 – Ohio 88-77*. RPI: Ohio 70, Buffalo 76. Analysis: The Bobcats are the class of the MAC and they’ll prove it Friday. Pick: Ohio 73, Kent State 63.

MEAC SEMIFINALS: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(8) Hampton (12-20, 6-10) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (17-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 27 – Bethune-Cookman 74-64. RPI: Hampton 305, Bethune-Cookman 254. Analysis: Haven’t seen either team. Grain of salt here. Pick: Bethune-Cookman 71, Hampton 67.

(2) Norfolk State (23-9, 13-3) vs. (11) Florida A&M (10-22, 6-10)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 27 – Norfolk State 79-70*. RPI: Norfolk State 133, Florida A&M 324. Analysis: Norfolk State led the MEAC all season before being passed by Savannah State late for the regular-season league title. The Spartans are not going to let another opportunity slip away. Pick: Norfolk State 80, Florida A&M 62.

MOUNTAIN WEST SEMIFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (25-6, 10-4) vs. (4) Colorado State (19-10, 8-6)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Colorado State 77-60; Feb. 25 – San Diego State 74-66. RPI: San Diego State 26, Colorado State 19. Analysis: The Rams may be the better team overall. Pick: Colorado State 75, San Diego State 71.

(2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4) vs. (3) UNLV (25-7, 9-5)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – UNLV 80-63; Feb. 18 – New Mexico 65-45. RPI: UNLV 14, New Mexico 35. Analysis: Both teams looked really good on Thursday. The homecourt advantage should be the difference. Pick: UNLV 71, New Mexico 67.

PAC-12 SEMIFINALS: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (22-10, 12-6) vs. (9) Oregon State (19-13, 7-11)

Tipoff: 9:10 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Arizona 81-73 (OT). RPI: Arizona 85, Oregon State 140. Analysis: The Beavers are due for a sub-par performance. Pick: Arizona 68, Oregon State 59.

(2) California (24-8, 13-5) vs. (6) Colorado (21-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 11:40 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Cal 57-50; Feb. 26 – Colorado 70-57. RPI: Cal 34, Colorado 86. Analysis: Calling another Pac-12 tournament upset. Pick: Colorado 67, Cal 62.

SWAC SEMIFINALS: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(2) Texas Southern (14-17, 12-6) vs. (6) Alcorn State (10-21, 6-12)

Tipoff: 1:30 p.m. TV: SWAC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Texas Southern 87-52; March 1 – Texas Southern 56-54*. RPI: Texas Southern 239, Alcorn State 339. Analysis: Alcorn looks like a different team in the second half of the season. Pick: Texas Southern 70, Alcorn State 65.

(1) Mississippi Valley State (19-12, 17-1) vs. (5) Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-21, 9-9)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: SWAC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – MVSU 82-67; March 1 – MVSU 78-67. RPI: MVSU 154, UAPB 309. Analysis: The Delta Devils better be careful. This one has upset possibilities. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 66, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 64.

WAC SEMINFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (24-9, 10-4) vs. (6) Hawaii (16-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: WSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Hawaii 91-87; Feb. 23 – New Mexico State 115-73. RPI: New Mexico State 67, Hawaii 217. Analysis: These two teams have scored nearly 400 combined points in two games this season. Should be fun. Should be close. Pick: New Mexico State 81, Hawaii 78.

(1) Nevada (26-5, 13-1) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (17-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. TV: WSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Nevada 65-63*; March 3 – Nevada 79-69. RPI: Nevada 45, Louisiana Tech 177. Analysis: Tech played the Pack well both times season. Why should Friday be different? Pick: Nevada 64, Louisiana Tech 63.

ACC QUARTERFINALS: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) vs. (8) Maryland (17-14, 6-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – North Carolina 83-74*; Feb. 29 – North Carolina 88-70. RPI: UNC 3, Maryland 110. Analysis: No contest. Line: North Carolina -15½. Pick: North Carolina 78, Maryland 53.

(4) Virginia (22-8, 9-7) vs. (5) North Carolina State (21-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Virginia 61-60*. RPI: Virginia 43, NC State 53. Analysis: The Pack wins it outright. Line: Virginia -2½. Pick: North Carolina State 66, Virginia 60.

(2) Duke (26-5, 13-3) vs. (10) Virginia Tech (16-16, 4-12)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 2 – Duke 75-60*; Feb. 25 – Duke 70-65 (OT). RPI: Duke 4, Virginia Tech 119. Analysis: Duke needed overtime to beat the Hokies last time. They’ll challenge the Blue Devils again. Pick: Duke 68, Virginia Tech 63.

(3) Florida State (21-9, 12-4) vs. (6) Miami (19-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Florida State 64-59; Feb. 26 – Miami 78-62. RPI: FSU 20, Miami 49. Analysis: The Hurricanes probably have the better talent – at least offensively – and they’ll solve the Seminole D enough to get the win. Pick: Miami 61, Florida State 58.

ATLANTIC 10 QUARTERFINALS: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(1) Temple (24-6, 13-3) vs. (8) Massachusetts (21-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 29 – Temple 90-88 (OT). RPI: Temple 12, UMass 80. Analysis: Expected the Owls to win by eight or more points is a lot to ask in what should be a low-scoring game. Line: Temple -7½ . Pick: Temple 60, Massachusetts 55.

(4) St. Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6) vs. (5) Saint Joseph’s (20-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 29 – St. Bonaventure 98-93 (2OT). RPI: St. Bonaventure 91, Saint Joseph’s 52. Analysis: Andrew Nicholson will be the best player on the floor, but the Hawks are the better team. Line: Saint Joseph’s -1. Pick: Saint Joseph’s 68, St. Bonaventure 62.

(2) Saint Louis (24-6, 12-4) vs. (7) LaSalle (21-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Saint Louis 59-51*. RPI: SLU 30, LaSalle 78. Analysis: The Billikens have been up-and-down, but you have to believe they’ll enter Atlantic City ready to roll. Line: Saint Louis -6. Pick: Saint Louis 63, LaSalle 52.

(3) Xavier (19-11, 10-6) vs. (6) Dayton (20-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Dayton 87-72; Feb. 18 – Xavier 86-83 (OT). RPI: Xavier 56, Dayton 73. Analysis: Kevin Dillard will not let the Flyers lose. Line: Xavier -2. Pick: Dayton 73, Xavier 70.

BIG TEN QUARTRFINALS: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (24-7, 13-5) vs. (8) Iowa (17-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 10 – Michigan State 95-61. RPI: Michigan State 5, Iowa 133. Analysis: Avoid betting this line. If you insist on taking the bait, go with Sparty. Line: Michigan State -11. Pick: Michigan State 73, Iowa 61.

(4) Wisconsin (23-8, 12-6) vs. (5) Indiana (25-7, 11-7)

Tipoff: 2:25 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – Wisconsin 57-50. RPI: Indiana 12, Wisconsin 22. Analysis: The loss of Verdell Jones – Indiana’s heart and soul – will hurt, but it won’t keep the Hoosiers from rolling to the semis. Line: Indiana -1½. Pick: Indiana 65, Wisconsin 58.

(2) Michigan (23-8, 13-5) vs. (10) Minnesota (19-13, 6-12)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 1 – Michigan 61-56. RPI: Michigan 13, Minnesota 89. Analysis: The Gophers may not pull off another upset, but it’s doubtful that the Wolverines will cover. Pick: Michigan 58, Minnesota 55.

(3) Ohio State (25-6, 13-5) vs. (6) Purdue (21-11, 10-8)

Tipoff: 8:55 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Ohio State 87-84. RPI: Ohio State 8, Purdue 40. Analysis: Purdue’s near-win at Columbus in early February set off a really good stretch for the Boilermakers. Pick: Ohio State 79, Purdue 76.

SEC QUARTERFINALS: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (30-1, 16-0) vs. (8) LSU (18-13, 7-9)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Kentucky 74-50*. RPI: Kentucky 2, LSU 89. Analysis: Probably would avoid betting this one with the Tigers getting so many points, but there aren’t enough points to actually bet LSU. Line: Kentucky -16½. Pick: Kentucky 71, LSU 54.

(4) Florida (22-9, 10-6) vs. (5) Alabama (21-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 14 – Florida 61-52*. RPI: Florida 28, Alabama 32. Analysis: It’s hard to take the Tide the way they’re playing. Pick: Florida 78, Alabama 61.

(2) Tennessee (18-13, 10-6) vs. (7) Mississippi (19-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 22 – Tennessee 73-60. RPI: Tennessee 74, Mississippi 51. Analysis: Tennessee is playing as well as anyone in the SEC (No. 1 Kentucky excepted) and could get to the title game. Pick: Tennessee 72, Mississippi 63.

(3) Vanderbilt (21-10, 10-6) vs. (11) Georgia (15-16, 5-11)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan 14 – Vandy 77-66; Feb. 19 – Vandy 61-52. RPI: Vanderbilt 27, Georgia 108. Analysis: Another line that’s too close to play. Avoid it. Maybe take the over. Pick: Vanderbilt 82, Georgia 70.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 162-127-3

Friday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 07:25:01 -0800

ACC - Quarterfinals
#1 North Carolina vs. #8 Maryland, Noon (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#4 Virginia vs. #5 NC State, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#2 Duke vs. #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#3 Florida State vs. #6 Miami, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)

After wins on Thursday both NC State and Miami have shots at quality wins on Friday, and should both accomplish that the ACC may be able to grab six NCAA tournament bids. The Wolfpack take on Virginia, and with the lone regular season meeting decided by a single point (61-60 Virginia win on January 28th) this should be a close contest.

Tony Bennett's team has been banged up for much of the season and with freshman Malcolm Brogdon being ruled out for the season the Cavaliers are essentially down to six players in their rotation. But the most important one is still on the floor, as Mike Scott has been one of the best players in the ACC all season long.

The key for Virginia is getting consistent production from guard Sammy Zeglinski, because when he's shooting it well the Cavaliers are tougher to slow down. Tony Bennett's pack line defense can frustrate teams, so the Pack have to be smart in not settling for too many perimeter shots. C.J. Leslie scored 17 points in the first meeting and Richard Howell put up 11 and 18 rebounds, and as a team NC State out-rebounded Virginia 42-25 in Raleigh.

But they shot 2-for-15 from three and just 12-for-21 from the foul line, thus negating that edge on the glass. The Wolfpack may average 15 three-point attempts per game and if a decent chunk of those are taken by Scott Wood that's fine. But they can't fall in love with the shot as that's what Virginia wants teams to do. Work the ball inside and take advantage of their depth, and NC State likely wins.

As for Miami, the Hurricanes and Seminoles split the regular season series with the home team winning both meetings. Jim Larranaga's team won in Coral Gables with Reggie Johnson sitting due to an NCAA issue, with Miami shooting 61% from the field and scoring 54 points in the second half of the 78-62 win. And the Hurricanes got it done with offensive balance, as four players finished in double figures.

If they can be balanced, with Johnson and Kenny Kadji inside and guards Malcolm Grant, Shane Larkin and Durand Scott producing on the perimeter, Miami can pose problems for one of the ACC's best defensive teams. Florida State has to take care of the basketball, not just for tonight but also for the remainder of the season if they're to make any kind of noise.

Leonard Hamilton's team turns the ball over on 24% of their possessions, which is not part of the formula for winning in March. Luke Loucks and Ian Miller have to perform better in this area if the Seminoles are to hang around, because despite FSU's ability on the defensive end that can be nullified if they're giving away too many possessions.

Of course North Carolina and Duke can't be forgotten but both take on teams who aren't going to the Big Dance unless they win the ACC tournament. Maryland's a young team led by Terrell Stoglin, whose shot selection at times leaves much to be desired, and if the Terps are hot they can hang around with UNC. But don't expect that to happen, and while Virginia Tech tends to play Duke tough they likely don't have the horses even with Duke's Ryan Kelly missing the tournament with a foot injury.

Atlantic 10 - Quarterfinals
#1 Temple vs. #8 Massachusetts, 12:00pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Saint Joseph's, 2:30pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#2 Saint Louis vs. #7 La Salle, 6:30pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#3 Xavier vs. #6 Dayton, 9:00pm (CBS SN syndicated)

In the final game of the night in Atlantic City, Xavier and Dayton are essentially playing for a trip to the NCAA tournament. Not sure if there's any other way to describe the game between the two rivals, which should make for a heated battle at Boardwalk Hall. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons still haven't played their best basketball, and what better time to get going than right now? Dayton's led by point guard Kevin Dillard and they've got some good players on the wings, led by senior Chris Johnson.

Saint Joseph's can also work their way into the bubble chatter, and clearly getting to the semis with a win over St. Bonaventure would be a good start. The battle between C.J. Aiken and A-10 Player of the Year Andrew Nicholson will have a lot to say about the outcome, but the Bonnies will need to slow down guard Carl Jones as well. Temple and Saint Louis are well on their way to the Big Dance, but a loss today could have a negative impact from a seeding standpoint.

Big 12 - Semifinals
#4 Baylor vs. #1 Kansas, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Missouri vs. #6 Texas, 10:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

While the buzz may be the fact that we're one win apiece away from a third meeting between Missouri and Kansas, the truth of the matter is that both have business to attend to tonight. The Jayhawks take on a Baylor team they beat decisively in both regular season meetings, with Thomas Robinson doing what he does and Jeff Withey absolutely killing the Bears inside. Baylor will need Perry Jones III to come out with the same aggression he did in Thursday's win over Kansas State, putting up 31 points and 11 boards.

The second game matches Missouri and six-seed Texas, who played well in the second half of their win over Iowa State on Thursday. It will be important for J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo to play well for the Longhorns, but if anything they're going to need Clint Chapman and the rest of their big men to go to work on the glass. It won't hurt to get Ricardo Ratliffe in foul trouble either but that can be easier said than done. Marcus Denmon, Phil Pressey and Kim English lead the way for the Tigers, who could still be in the discussion for a one-seed.

Big East - Semifinals
#1 Syracuse vs. #4 Cincinnati, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#7 Louisville vs. #3 Notre Dame, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville is the lone team not in the top four to reach the Big East semifinals, as they jumped Marquette early and hung on to beat the Golden Eagles on Thursday night. They take on Notre Dame, who survived a comedy of errors down the stretch in their overtime win over USF. The key for the Cardinals will be to achieve a near-chaotic tempo within possessions against the Irish, who are extemely difficult to speed up. That game follows Syracuse and Cincinnati, with the Bearcats in position to help themselves out in the seeding department with a win. But beating the Orange is tough anywhere, much less in the Garden. Who steps up for Syracuse tonight? To have as many answers as they do is a nice luxury to have, but if Yancy Gates and Cashmere Wright play well the Bearcats can win.

Big Ten - Quarterfinals
#1 Michigan State vs. #8 Iowa, Noon (ESPN)
#4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Indiana, 2:25 p.m. (ESPN)
#2 Michigan vs. #10 Minnesota, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)
#3 Ohio State vs. #6 Purdue, 8:55 p.m. (BTN)

With Northwestern going down the bubble suspense has likely left the Big Ten tournament, unless either Iowa or Minnesota can get hot and get to Sunday's final. They take on the top two seeds in the event, and while Michigan State and Michigan won shares of the regular season title (along with Ohio State) they can be beat. The 4/5 matchup is the one to watch, not only because of how evenly matched Wisconsin and Indiana are but also because of the fact that this will be the first game for IU without Verdell Jones III, who tore his ACL on Thursday. This will be a good test for Tom Crean's team in that regard, because while they're deep enough rotation-wise to lose an important senior at this point in the year does require some adjusting.

Big West - Semifinals
#1 Long Beach State vs. #7 UC Irvine, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
#3 UCSB vs. #4 Cal Poly, Midnight (ESPNU)

Top-seed Long Beach State, who is without their best defender (Larry Anderson) this weekend due to injury, received a nice break as UC Irvine knocked off two-seed Cal State Fullerton on Thursday night. With the Big West re-seeding its teams after the quarterfinals the 49ers take on the Anteaters, and while Russell Turner's team isn't to be underestimated this is a better semifinal matchup for Casper Ware and company than a battle with Cal Poly would have been. The Mustangs take on UCSB, who has won the last two conference tournament titles and with Orlando Johnson leading the way a third is not out of the realm of possibility. If the Gauchos have James Nunnally going as well look out.

Conference USA - Semifinals
#2 Southern Miss vs. #6 Marshall, 4:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#1 Memphis vs. #4 UCF, 6:30 p.m. (CBS SN)

With Memphis safely in the NCAA tournament field the question for Conference USA is whether or not another team can pop up and earn a bid. That chatter focuses on Southern Miss, who likely wrapped up a spot with their escape against ECU. Larry Eustachy's team has an impressive set of computer numbers, so that likely means two bids for C-USA, but if DeAndre Kane can go off for 40 as he did in Marshall's win over Tulsa the Thundering Herd can earn a trip to the title game. Opposing Memphis is UCF, who likely needs to win the tournament if they're to go dancing, but with Keith Clanton leading the way they don't lack for talent either.

Great West - Semifinals
#4 NJIT vs. #1 Utah Valley, 1:00 p.m.
#3 Texas-Pan American vs. #2 North Dakota, 3:30 p.m.

MAC - Semifinals
#4 Kent State vs. # 1 Akron, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#3 Ohio vs. # 2 Buffalo, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

The top four seeds in the MAC all hail from the East Division, and it should come as no surprise that these four meet in the semis. The question now is who has enough left to grab two wins and the league's automatic bid. The conversation has to start with regular season champion Akron, who won the tournament last season and in Zeke Marshall have a big man who can change games with his shot-blocking ability. Two-seed Buffalo counters with forwards Javon McCrea and Mitchell Watt, two very good players who will be a handful for Ohio tonight. The Bobcats have the league's best point guard in D.J. Cooper, and Kent State has three players averaging double figures with forward Justin Greene leading the way. Thursday may have gone according to plan with Ohio and Kent State moving on, and it wouldn't be a surprise if those two won again tonight.

MEAC - Semifinals
#8 Hampton vs. #4 Bethune-Cookman, 6:00 p.m.
#2 Norfolk State vs. #11 Florida A&M, 8:00 p.m.

Mountain West - Semifinals
#1 San Diego State vs. #4 Colorado State, 9:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#2 New Mexico vs. #3 UNLV, 11:30 p.m. (CBS SN)

The two semifinals in Las Vegas promise to be entertaining affairs with both being regular season splits. San Diego State didn't look their best against a young Boise State team that's going to be good in years to come, and Jamaal Franklin and the rest of the Aztecs have to sharpen things up if they're to beat the Rams. Colorado State looked impressive in their win over TCU, and with Wes Eikmeier and Dorian Green leading the way Tim Miles' crew definitely has a shot at the tournament crown. In game two how UNLV defends Drew Gordon will go a long way in determining the outcome, as they were unable to slow him down in the second half of their loss in Albuquerque last month. Mike Moser also struggled in that game, and if he can get going early the Runnin' Rebels can take advantage of their home floor.

Pac-12 - Semifinals
#9 Oregon State vs. #4 Arizona, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
#2 California vs. #6 Colorado, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

Who wants an NCAA tournament bid? That's the question in Los Angeles as California is likely the only team secure with their prospects. Arizona has to beat Oregon State if they're to go dancing, but the same could have been true even if Washington were their opposition since the Huskies swept the regular season series from the Wildcats. Colorado and Oregon State know at this point that they'll have to win the automatic bid, and both are capable of doing just that. There's an awful lot on the line at Staples Center, truthfully more than many would expect to be in the semifinals of a BCS AQ conference tournament.

SEC - Quarterfinals
#8 LSU vs. #1 Kentucky, 1:00 p.m. (SEC Network)
#5 Alabama vs. #4 Florida, 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #2 Tennessee, 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#11 Georgia vs. #3 Vanderbilt, 10:00 p.m. (SEC Network)

Ole Miss/Tennessee is the game to watch from a bubble standpoint as both teams need wins, and with a number of bubble team across the country faltering of late either one can step up and earn a bid. Jarnell Stokes has helped change the prospects for the Volunteers, who with his addition had two tough players inside who give opponents fits (Jeronne Maymon). The Rebels will need Terrence Henry to play well again if they're to advance, and Murphy Holloway has played well for much of the season too. The other three games seem to be straightforward with Kentucky already having a one-seed in the NCAA tournament and Vanderbilt, Florida and Alabama all headed to the Big Dance as well.

SWAC- Semifinals
#2 Texas Southern vs. #6 Alcorn State, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#1 Mississippi Valley State vs. #5 UAPB, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

WAC - Semifinals
#6 Hawai'i vs. #2 New Mexico State, 9:00 p.m. (WSN)
#5 Louisiana Tech vs. #1 Nevada, 11:30 p.m. (WSN)

Northwestern and USF Stumble Late: Thursday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 06:16:19 -0800

It was a tough day for bubble teams in the Pac-12 as both Washington and Oregon fell in the quarterfinals.

1. Also stumbling on Thursday were Northwestern and USF, with the former being in far greater trouble at this point.
Northwestern University has never made the NCAA tournament, and with their 75-68 overtime loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tournament that could very well remain the case after Sunday. In each of the last two seasons there seems to be a moment where Bill Carmody's team needs to make one play, be it a score or a defensive stop, to get the job done but the Wildcats simply can't. The problem against Minnesota: they couldn't shoot inside of the arc.

Both teams finished the game 11-for-26 from beyond the arc, but the Wildcats squandered a 17-6 edge from the foul line (points) by making just nine of their thirty-one shots from two (29%). John Shurna scored 21 points on the afternoon but made just two of eight two-point shots, and Drew Crawford did the same while scoring just eight. If not for JerShon Cobb putting up 24 points and eight rebounds, there likely would not have been an overtime period to play.

As for USF, while many can argue with the aesthetics you really can't argue with the results, as Stan Heath's Bulls have won 13 conference games when adding their second round win over Villanova. But against a team that also plays a deliberate brand of basketball USF was unable to pick up the signature win they needed, falling to Notre Dame 57-53 in overtime in the final game of the night in the Big East Championship. Stan Heath's team looked to be in good shape late in regulation, but stunning decisions lef the door for the Irish, and USF's execution on their final possessions of overtime provided a fitting ending for a frustrating night. But unlike Northwestern the Bulls were able to win a game in their conference tournament, so they have that going for them at least.

2. Texas was one team that took advantage of their opportunity as they beat Iowa State.
It seemed to take a while on Thursday to find a team that truly took advantage of its opportunity to make a statement to the selection committee, but Rick Barnes' Longhorns didn't disappoint in the final game of the night at the Big 12 tournament. After shooting 26.3% from the field in the first half Texas shot 50% in the second, scoring 46 points to beat three-seed Iowa State 71-65 to advance to the Big 12 semis. Texas shot 54% from two and got to the foul line at a higher rate, knocking down 14 of their 17 attempts while the Cyclones could manage just four attempts.

J'Covan Brown led the way with 23 points and five rebounds while Myck Kabongo added 11 and five assists with no turnovers, and Clint Chapman was solid on both ends of the floor with ten points and eight rebounds while also helping defend Royce White. Texas should feel good about their NCAA hopes but there is the matchup with Missouri on Friday night, and a win there would provide a nice boost to their seeding as well.

3. Indiana beats Penn State but they may have lost Verdell Jones III for the remainder of the season.
Tom Crean's Hoosiers knocked off Penn State 75-58 in a Big Ten tournament game, out-rebounding the Nittany Lions 45-29 to make up for shooting just 36.5% from the field. But it may have been a Phyrric victory, as senior guard Verdell Jones III went down with that was reported to be a sprained knee during the first half. More tests will be done on Friday, but when an injury occurs like Jones' (non-contact) there isn't a very positive outlook.

Head coach Tom Crean was near tears when discussing the injury in postgame interviews, and it's easy to see why. Jones III was one of the guys who was there with Crean from the start, going through the horrible 6-25 campaign and the tough process of bringing Indiana basketball back to this point. Do the Hoosiers have the depth needed to make up for Jones' loss if he can't go in the NCAA tournament? They do, and this likely means more minutes for a Will Sheehy, but it's deeper than that. For all the work Verdell Jones III put into the program it would be fitting that he's on the floor in the Big Dance. Sadly, that may not happen.

Quick Hitters

1. One more team was added to the NIT field on Thursday night as the regular season champ in the Southland, UT Arlington, fell 92-72 to McNeese State. The defense let the Mavs down as McNeese State shot 54.2% from the field and knocked down 11 of 24 three-point shots to ensure the win.

2. Also of note in New York was Syracuse's 58-55 win over Connecticut, and for a team that's had so many answers this season the Orange found another on Thursday. James Southerland scored ten points off the bench and Scoop Jardine 18 as Syracuse advanced to Friday's quarterfinal.

3. Two players their respective teams will need to step up in the Big Dance did just that in the Big 12 quarterfinals, as Perry Jones III put up a double-double (31 points, 11 rebounds) in Baylor's 82-74 win over Kansas State. As for the other player that would be none other than Kansas' Elijah Johnson, as he scored 26 points in the Jayhawks' 83-66 win over Texas A&M.

4. Iowa may have brought an end to the Bruce Weber era in Champaign, beating Illinois 64-61 in the first game of the day at the Big Ten tournament. Matt Gatens paced the Hawkeyes with so 20 points and Aaron White added 13 and nine rebounds off the bench. In fact it was announced that Weber will not be retained as head coach on Friday morning.

5. The game of the day may not have been artistic by any means, but that's of little concern for a Marshall team that outlasted Tulsa 105-100 in triple overtime. DeAndre Kane led all scorers with 40 points, and it would come as no surprise if the Herd were to reach Saturday's title game.

6. Cal State Fullerton picked arguably the worst time of the season to have their three-point shot to betray them. In the Titans' 65-59 loss to UC Irvine the Titans shot 5-for-20 from three while the Mustangs shot 10-for-22 from beyong the arc. Chris McNealy led the way with 24 points.

7. ACC bubble teams NC State and Miami took care of business on Thursday night, beating Boston College and Georgia Tech respectively to advance to the quarterfinals. Next up for the Wolfpack is four-seed Virginia, while the Hurricanes take on Florida State in the day's final quarterfinal.

8. It wasn't the prettiest shot but all that matters is the end result, as Jamaal Franklin's three as time expired gave San Diego State a 65-62 win over Boise State in a Mountain West quarterfinal. The top four seeds all advanced and that includes Colorado State, who beat TCU 81-60 and should be safely in the NCAA tournament field at this point.

Thursday First Round Predictions: ACC, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:02:51 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking (just about) every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's three key championship games. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC FIRST ROUND: AT ATLANTA

(8) Maryland (16-14, 6-10) vs. (9) Wake Forest (13-17, 4-12)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Maryland 70-64. RPI: Maryland 111, Wake Forest 169. Analysis: The ACC Tourney starts with an upset. Line: Maryland -3½. Pick: Wake Forest 60, Maryland 55.

(5) North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7) vs. (12) Boston College (9-21, 4-12)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – N.C. State 76-62; Feb. 1 – N.C. State 56-51. RPI: N.C. State 52, BC 236. Analysis: The Wolfpack will pull away early for an easy win. Line: N.C. State -12. Pick: North Carolina State 73, Boston College 52.

(7) Clemson (16-14, 8-8) vs. (10) Virginia Tech (15-16, 4-12)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Virginia Tech 67-65; March 1 – Clemson 58-56. RPI: Clemson 138, Virginia Tech 119. Analysis: Remember when being .500 in the ACC meant a lock for the NCAA Tourney? Line: Clemson -2½. Pick: Clemson 64, Virginia Tech 62.

(6) Miami (18-11, 9-7) vs. (11) Georgia Tech (11-19, 4-12)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Miami 64-49*. RPI: Miami 50, Georgia Tech 183. Analysis: Strange line. Makes me think Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t. Oh, well. The Hurricanes are significantly better. Line: Miami -4. Pick: Miami 67, Georgia Tech 57.

BIG TEN FIRST ROUND: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(8) Iowa (16-15, 8-10) vs. (9) Illinois (17-14, 6-12)

Tipoff: 11:30 a.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 26 – Illinois 65-54. RPI: Iowa 131, Illinois 77. Analysis: Not sure the Illinois players are interested in playing another game. Line: Illinois -2½. Pick: Iowa 60, Illinois 55.

(5) Indiana (24-7, 11-7) vs. (12) Penn State (12-19, 4-14)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Indiana 88-82*; Jan. 22 – Indiana 73-54. RPI: Indiana 11, Penn State 156. Analysis: The Hoosiers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten – if not the nation. Line: Indiana -11½. Pick: Indiana 81, Penn State 67.

(7) Northwestern (18-12, 8-10) vs. (10) Minnesota (18-13, 6-12)

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Minnesota 75-52; Feb. 18 – Northwestern 64-53. RPI: Northwestern 41, Minnesota 89. Analysis: John Shurna and Drew Crawford will not let the Wildcats lose this game. Line: Northwestern -2½. Pick: Northwestern 68, Minnesota 62.

(6) Purdue (20-11, 10-8) vs. (11) Nebraska (12-17, 4-14)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 22 – Purdue 83-65. RPI: Purdue 41, Nebraska 140. Analysis: Purdue has won 3-of-4 and even in the loss at Indiana, the Boilermakers played pretty well for most of the game. Line: Purdue -8. Pick: Purdue 79, Nebraska 64.

SEC FIRST ROUND: AT NEW ORLEANS

(8) LSU (17-13, 7-9) vs. (9) Arkansas (18-13, 6-10)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Arkansas 69-60; Feb. 4 – LSU 71-65. RPI: LSU 84, Arkansas 92. Analysis: A strange season comes to an Arkansas. Things should start to improve next season under Mike Anderson. Line: LSU -1. Pick: LSU 73, Arkansas 68.

(5) Alabama (20-10, 9-7) vs. (12) South Carolina (10-20, 2-14)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – South Carolina 56-54. RPI: Alabama 32, USC 185. Analysis: This game could just go a lot of different ways, depending on how interested the Tide are, but eight points is too big of a line for what should be a low-scoring game. Line: Alabama -8. Pick: Alabama 58, South Carolina 52.

(7) Mississippi (18-12, 8-8) vs. (10) Auburn (15-15, 5-11)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Auburn 69-68 (2OT); Feb. 11 – Ole Miss 61-54. RPI: Ole Miss 51, Auburn 136. Analysis: The Rebels are back on the bubble after three straight wins, but Auburn will end the dream. Line: Ole Miss -2½. Pick: Auburn 66, Mississippi 63.

(6) Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8) vs. (11) Georgia (14-16, 5-11)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Georgia 70-68 (OT)*. RPI: MSU 64, Georgia 107. Analysis: Both teams are so unpredictable that it’s hard to tell how this one’s going to go. The Bulldogs are physically superior, though. Line: MSU -5. Pick: Mississippi State 71, Georgia 65.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 143-108-3

Thursday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 06:29:32 -0800

Big 12 - Quarterfinals
#4 Baylor vs. #5 Kansas State, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
#1 Kansas vs. #9 Texas A&M, 3:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
#2 Missouri vs. #7 Oklahoma State, 7:00 p.m. (Big 12 Network)
#3 Iowa State vs. #6 Texas, 9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network)

The most important game in the Big 12 has to be the final game of the day in Kansas City, as Texas could really use a win over Iowa State on their resume. Rick Barnes' Longhorns are either just in or just out based on which projections you follow, but a win over the Cyclones would get them to the semifinals and that may end up being enough to punch their ticket. What remains to be seen is how Texas will defend 6'8" Royce White, who has a forward's build but point guard skills...and responsibilities. The Minnesota transfer is called on by Fred Hoiberg to get things going for the likes of Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen, and Melvin Ejim is another dangerous option Texas will need to account for.

As for Texas there's no secret that J'Covan Brown is their most important player, because when he plays well their young perimeter players can gradually work their way into the flow of the game. Point guard Myck Kabongo has matured throughout the course of the season, and while he's still got a way to go before reaching the status of former UT point guards such as T.J. Ford and D.J. Augustin the talent is definitely there. The key for Texas will be what they can get out of big men Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene, because if those two are productive in the paint the Longhorns are an entirely different team. That could prove to be difficult however given White's unique skill set, and Texas could have to go small to deal with him on the perimeter.

Kansas and Missouri are both still part of the battle for a top seed in the NCAA tournament, and while that may be a longshot for the Tigers a Big 12 tournament title would go a long way in changing that. Marcus Denmon and Phil Pressey have been two of the best guards in the country this season, but they'll need Ricardo Ratliffe to stay out of foul trouble if they're to have success this weekend. The matchup with Oklahoma State may play right into Missouri's hands with Le'Bryan Nash injured and the Cowboys not always displaying the best decision-making.

Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor will look to lead the Jayhawks to the tournament crown after winning the regular season title outright, but keep an eye on players such as Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey this weekend. The play of those two will be very important in the NCAA tournament, and if they can go in with some positive momentum that would be even better for Bill Self and his team. The 4/5 matchup kicks things off, and big men other than Quincy Acy are going to have to bring it physically if the Bears are to beat Kansas State. K-State on the other hand needs sound decisions from Angel Rodriguez, and he's been a work in progress in that area all season long.

ACC - First Round
#8 Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest, Noon (ESPNU/ACC Network)
#5 NC State vs. #12 Boston College, 2:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network)
#6 Miami vs. #11 Georgia Tech, 9:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network)

Just like in the Big 12 the bubble teams will be the ones to watch in Atlanta, with NC State and Miami both needing to do some work in order to have their names called on Selection Sunday. That four-game skid that NC State hit, beginning with their tough loss at Duke, could be what ultimately sends Mark Gottfried's team to the NIT, but with talented players such as Lorenzo Brown, C.J. Leslie and Scott Wood the Wolfpack are more than capable of winning a couple games (a depleted Virginia awaits the winner of their game in the quarterfinals).

As for Miami they likely have less work to do than NC State despite finishing beneath them in the standings, and while they play Georgia Tech don't expect much of a home-court advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji make up a solid interior tandem, and with thei talented guards the Canes don't lack for pieces. A win over the Jackets would mean a third meeting with Florida State, and their half of the bracket looks more conducive to a run to the finals due to State's matchup issues with North Carolina.

Big East - Quarterfinals
#1 Syracuse vs. #9 Connecticut, Noon (ESPN)
#4 Cincinnati vs. #5 Georgetown, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#2 Marquette vs. #7 Louisville, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#3 Notre Dame vs. #6 USF, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Seven of the top eight seeds will take part in the Big East quarters, with nine-seed UConn being the "party-crasher" in that regard. The Huskies, according to many, punched their ticket with a win over West Virginia on Wednesday, but until their name is actually called on Sunday the best strategy would be to simply keep winning. Syracuse swept the regular season series, winning by two in Storrs, and with their many weapons Jim Boeheim's team is also one of the two clear favorites to make a run all the way to New Orleans. Shabazz Napier has to make sound decisions with the basketball if UConn is to win; they're not going to get away with the same number of mistakes that they did against DePaul and WVU.

The only teams on the slate who may still have work to do: Cincinnati and USF. Mick Cronin's Bearcats should be an NCAA tournament team but it's difficult to tell just how much emphasis the selection committee will place on a team's computer numbers, so the best move for Cincinnati would be to go out and beat Georgetown. As for USF, a win over Notre Dame would give them the win over a top-level Big East team that their resume is missing, and with Notre Dame also preferring to slow things down the final game of the night may not surpass 60 possessions. Anthony Collins is going to be key on both ends of the floor, as in addition to running the offense he'll have to slow down Eric Atkins.

Big Ten - First Round
#8 Iowa vs. #9 Illinois, 11:30 a.m. (BTN)
#5 Indiana vs. #12 Penn State, 1:55 p.m. (BTN)
#7 Northwestern vs. #10 Minnesota, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
#6 Purdue vs. #11 Nebraska 7:55 p.m. (ESPN2)

With Purdue most likely in the Field of 68 and Illinois not looking like a tournament team at this point, most of the attention on day one in Indianapols will focus on Northwestern. Bill Carmody's Wildcats are still in search of the first NCAA berth in school history, and wings Drew Crawford and John Shurna are more than capable of getting hot and leading the Wildcats on a run. But they first have to get past Minnesota, who is wrapping up a season that really hasn't lived up to what many were hoping for even with Trevor Mbakwe going down with a torn ACL. Ralph Sampson III is banged up and if he can't go that limits the Golden Gophers even more when it comes to frontcourt depth. Iowa/Illinois looks to be a toss-up, and that fact is why Bruce Weber's seat is scalding at this point. Matt Gatens is a tough matchup, and if the Hawkeyes can get Melsahn Basabe going inside it could be them who faces top-seed Michigan State on Friday.

Big West - Quarterfinals
#3 UC Santa Barbara vs. #6 Pacific, 3:00 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#2 Cal State Fullerton vs. #7 UC Irvine, 5:30 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#1 Long Beach State vs. #8 UC Davis, 9:00 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#4 Cal Poly vs. #5 UC Riverside, 11:30 p.m. (BigWest.TV)

The concern for top-seed Long Beach State isn't so much what will happen against UC Davis today but rather the remainder of the weekend as wing Larry Anderson will miss the conference tournament with a sprained knee suffered in their loss at Cal State Fullerton on Saturday. To lose a player of Anderson's caliber is a huge issue, especially when considering the fact that he's the Big West Defensive Player of the Year. Dan Monson's 49ers don't lack for talent with Casper Ware and T.J. Robinson leading the way, but it will be a tough adjustment throughout the weekend from a defensive standpoint.

UCSB has won the last two Big West tournament crowns, and with Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally the Gauchos are definitely capable of making it three straight, and Fullerton has done a very good job all season with their transfers being more than ready to take over. Johnson and Fullerton's Kwame Vaughn are the two players not at LBSU with the best chance of taking over in Anaheim, but keep an eye on UC Riverside's Phil Martin as well.

Conference USA - Quarterfinals
#2 Southern Miss vs. #10 East Carolina, 1:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#3 Tulsa vs. #6 Marshall, 3:30 p.m. (CBS SN)
#1 Memphis vs. #8 UTEP, 7:30 p.m. (CBS SN)
#4 UCF vs. #5 UAB, 10:00 p.m. (CBS SN)

The day in Memphis appropriately tips off with Southern Miss, who despite their gaudy record still needs a strong conference tournament to feel comfortable with their NCAA tournament hopes. Larry Eustachy's team has very good computer numbers (17 RPI, 60 SOS) but there have been questions about the validity of those numbers. Whether or not that's fair is a conversation for another day, but the least that Neil Watson and company can do is simply keep winning. UCF likely needs to win the automatic bid, or at the very least reach Saturday's title game, to get to the Big Dance and the individual battle between Keith Clanton and UAB's Cameron Moore will go a long way in determining the outcome. Memphis takes on UTEP, and given the Miners' struggles on the offensive end of the floor the Tigers should advance provided Joe Jackson stays under control.

Great West - First Round
#5 Houston Baptist vs. #4 NJIT, 3:30 p.m.
The winner of the Great West Tournament gets an automatic bid to the CIT, and top seed Utah Valley is the favorite to get that done. The Wolverines take on the winner of HBU/NJIT, and the tandem of Chris Flores and Isaiah Wilkerson will need to play well if the Highlanders are to advance. Marcus Davis leads the way for Houston Baptist, and with the two teams splitting the regular season series it's anyone's guess as to who wins.

MAC - Quarterfinals
#8 Western Michigan vs. # 4 Kent State, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#7 Toledo vs. # 3 Ohio, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

Ohio and Kent State make their debuts at the 2012 edition MAC tournament tonight, as they take on Toledo and Western Michigan respectively. The top four seeds all hail from the East Division, which underlines how much better it was than the West throughout the course of the season. D.J. Cooper has led the way at the point for John Groce's Bobcats, and his presence along with that of other key scoring options means that Ohio winning the tournament wouldn't be a shock. The same can be said for Rob Senderoff's Golden Flashes, who have four players averaging at least 9.8 points per game with Justin Greene leading the way. Akron and Buffalo await the winners in Friday's semifinals.

MEAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Delaware State vs. #11 Florida A&M, 6:00 p.m.
#5 North Carolina Central vs. #4 Bethune-Cookman, 8:00 p.m.

With top-seed Savannah State going down on Wednesday things have opened up at the top of the bracket, something that both Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina Central hope to take advantage of. NCCU is led by the tandem of Dominique Sutton and Ray Willis, as they're averaging 31.4 points per game. Guards Adrien Coleman and Kevin Dukes pace the Wildcats, who are also capable of not just winning tonight but getting to the NCAA tournament. On the other side of the bracket Delaware State and Florida A&M meet with the winner taking on Norfolk State tomorrow night, and the Hornets haven't disappointed in the suspense department this season. Don't be surprised if tonight's game goes down to the wire as well.

Mountain West - Quarterfinals
#1 San Diego State vs. #8 Boise State, 3:00 p.m. (The Mtn.)
#4 Colorado State vs. #5 TCU, 5:30 p.m. (The Mtn./CBS SN)
#2 New Mexico vs. #7 Air Force 9:00 p.m. (The Mtn.)
#3 UNLV vs. #6 Wyoming 11:30 p.m. (The Mtn./CBS SN)

The Mountain West has the look of a four-bid league at this point, but could there be a fifth team with the ability to pop up and grab the automatic bid? If so, TCU may be that team provided they take some of their mojo from Daniel Meyer Arena with them to Las Vegas. The Horned Frogs lost just one home conference game this season (SDSU), and with point guard Hank Thorns they have the best distributor in the conference. Their 4/5 battle with Colorado State should be highly entertaining given the caliber of CSU's guards, and while the Frogs have a little more size inside a lack of it hasn't prevented Pierce Hornung from out-toughing the opposition many times this season. SDSU, New Mexico and host UNLV are all playing to improve their NCAA tournament seeding, which should make for great semifinal action on Friday provided they all advance.

Pac-12 - Quarterfinals
#9 Oregon State vs. #1 Washington, 3:10 p.m. (FSN)
#5 UCLA vs. #4 Arizona, 5:40 p.m. (FSN)
#7 Stanford vs. #2 California, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
#6 Colorado vs. #3 Oregon, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

Thanks to Wednesday's action there's a new record for the teams to avoid: 94 points, as in the lowest combined point total in a Pac-12 tournament game (Colorado/Utah did that just hours after UCLA/USC established a "new" mark of 95 points). That's the way this season has gone for the conference, which will need some excellent basketball for its NCAA prospects. Washington won the regular season title and Cal has the best resume, but the Huskies would be well-served to not get bounced by Oregon State. Arizona suspended Josiah Turner for the tournament and UCLA had to bench Joshua Smith for the first half on Wednesday due to his tardiness in getting to the team bus. Colorado may have been poor offensively but both of their games with Oregon have been exciting contests that didn't lack for scoring. Any one of these teams can grab the automatic bid at this point, and that parity's been a bit of a curse for the Pac-12 this season.

SEC - First Round
#8 LSU vs. #9 Arkansas, 1:00 p.m. (SEC Network)
#5 Alabama vs. #12 South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #10 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#6 Mississippi State vs. #11 Georgia, 10:00 p.m. (SEC Network)

Seeds five through seven have the most on the line today in New Orleans, with the Crimson Tide looking to be the safest bet to go dancing. Mississippi State has faltered down the stretch and despite their individual talent it remains to be seen if they've got the mental toughness (and focus) required to turn things around. And while Ole Miss hasn't been discussed a great deal nationally in regards to the NCAA tournament bubble, Andy Kennedy's Rebels are still alive and a good showing this weekend could punch their ticket. Ole Miss also suspended Jelan Kendrick for the weekend due to his, shall we say interesting, actions before the Rebels' regular season finale. The key players today: Alabama's Trevor Releford and Mississippi State's Dee Bost. Those two play well and their teams will win; don't and both the Tide and Bulldogs will be headed home.

SWAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Prairie View A&M vs. #6 Alcorn State, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#4 Alabama State vs. #5 UAPB, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

Top-seed Mississippi Valley State avoided disaster last night, advancing to the semis with a three-point win over Jackson State. Both they and texas Southern await the winners of today's quarterfinals, which begins with Prairie View A&M battling Alcorn State. Prairie View won by three in their last meeting...five days ago, with Jordan Demuynck going off for 27 points to lead the Panthers. Alabama State and UAPB both finished 9-9 in conference play, which makes it anyone's guess as to who wins tonight.

WAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Idaho vs. #6 Hawai'i, 3:00 p.m.
#2 New Mexico State vs. #7 Fresno State, 5:30 p.m.
#1 Nevada vs. #8 San Jose State, 9:00 p.m.
#4 Utah State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech, 11:30 p.m.

There are two conference tournaments in Las Vegas this weekend with the WAC taking over Orleans Arena this weekend. Nevada has been the best team all season long in the WAC but that would all be for naught if they were to get upset. New Mexico State is the team best equipped to grab the automatic bid if the Wolf Pack don't thanks to Wendell McKines, and Idaho handed Nevada their lone conference loss this season. As for the disappointing team that may be capable of making a run look no furthern than Hawai'i, who can call on Vander Joaquim and Joston Thomas inside.