WCC

College Hoops Monday: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 04:11:15 -0500

Northern Iowa became the fifth team to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament, beating Wichita State 67-52 to win their second consecutive Missouri Valley Conference tournament title. Trailing by three at the half, Ben Jacobson's Panthers outscored the Shockers 39-21 in the second half, holding Wichita State to 23.1% shooting in the final twenty minutes. Kwadzo Ahelegbe led the way with 24 points while Jake Koch added 13 off the bench. Koch's performance highlighted a solid effort from the UNI reserves, who helped spark the decisive 23-3 run.

"Our bench stepped up huge for us tonight just like they did the night before," said guard Ali Farokhmanesh. "I think our bench was the biggest difference in that stretch and then probably in the entire game overall." Where will the Panthers be seeded? Many projections have them looking at an eight or nine seed, and while that may be a bit low in regards to UNI's accomplishments no one's exactly lining up to play this team either. Northern Iowa will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.

As for Monday four tournament bids will be decided with the game having the most riding on it being the WCC final between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's out in Las Vegas. Mark Few's Bulldogs are safely in the field but a win would help their case in regards to playing the first two rounds at Spokane Arena. But that doesn't compare to the "pressure" that Randy Bennett's Gaels have to deal with. Last year Saint Mary's entered the final in a similar situation, feeling alright about their chances of earning an at-large berth provided Patty Mills be healthy enough to make a difference.

But he struggled and Gonzaga rolled, with the final result being a trip to the NIT instead. No such health concerns this time around although Omar Samhan did tweak his ankle late in the first half of their win over Portland; he played the second half with no trouble. Gonzaga won both regular season meetings and rebounding was a major factor in the first meeting. The Bulldogs out-rebounded the Gaels 45-27, winning 89-82 in Moraga. On a night that saw Robert Sacre grab just six rebounds Steven Gray and Elias Harris combined for 27; the Saint Mary's wings have a hard time rebounding at a rate similar to what these two can produce.

The second contest saw Saint Mary's come unglued to the tune of seventeen turnovers and 37.3% shooting from the field as they fell 80-61 in Spokane. Simply put Gonzaga has a number of weapons both in the starting lineup and on the bench; Saint Mary's will need big night from Samhan and Matthew Dellavedova as well as another player or two if they're to win the crown. At the least Saint Mary's needs to keep this close and play well; with six days between the final and Selection Sunday the worst final statement to make is to be blown out on national television.

As for the other three title games on tap, Siena may be under the most pressure to take care of business. The Saints have won 37 straight on the Times Union Center floor and will take on Fairfield in the MAAC title game, with the Stags having played them tougher than any other MAAC opponent this season. Siena won the second meeting (February 8th) by a 69-67 final as Fairfield outscored them 39-33 in the second half. The difference: turnover margin. The Stags turned the ball over fifteen times to the Saints' ten, and this will be a key Monday night as well.

Freshman point guard Derek Needham was the best rookie in the MAAC but he'll be going up a seasoned veteran in senior Ronald Moore. Fairfield will also need Anthony Johnson to stay out of foul trouble; he picked up three in the first half of their win over Niagara but Ryan Olander stepped up off the bench to keep the Stags afloat. They'll need that and then some in order to win in front of what will be a raucous crowd.

TV GAMES

7p ESPN CAA Final: William & Mary vs. Old Dominion
7p ESPN2 MAAC Final: Fairfield vs. Siena
9p ESPN WCC Final: Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga
9p ESPN2 SoCon Final: Appalachian St vs. Wofford

OTHER GAMES

7p Summit Semi: IFPW vs. Oakland
9:30p Summit Semi: Oral Roberts vs. IUPUI
7p Sun Belt Semi: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
9:30p Denver vs. North Texas

ONE PREDICTION

Old Dominion over William & Mary: This is an intriguing matchup for the CAA title in Richmond; William & Mary is back playing the way they did early in the season when they beat the likes of Wake Forest and Maryland. But while Tony Shaver's club is playing well they don't have the size inside to match up with ODU's deeper frontcourt. The Monarchs won both meetings, including a 61-42 win at home in early February that saw ODU kill the Tribe on the boards 48-25. Danny Sumner and company can ill-afford for that to happen again if they're to win the battle of the 757. The rebounding discrepancy won't be as extreme but ODU wins by eight.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's: GameNight Preview

Jeff Borzello — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:27:30 -0500

Start: Feb 11 2010 - 11:00pm

Game of the Night: Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s (11:00 PM, ESPN2)

There are dozens of games every night that have at-large or seeding consequences, but it is not often you get a contest that will have ramifications for the at-large field, the bubble, top-four seeds and a conference title. That is the case this Thursday, when West Coast Conference powers Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s go at it. Gonzaga, ranked No. 42 by Kenpom.com and No. 24 in the RPI, is 18-4 (7-1 in the WCC) with wins over Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, Memphis, Oklahoma and Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs’ losses have come against Michigan State, Duke, Wake Forest and surprisingly, San Francisco. Saint Mary’s is an impressive 20-3 (8-1) with wins over San Diego State, Northeastern and Utah State. The Gaels are No. 44 in the RPI and No. 43 on Kenpom.com.

After Saint Mary’s lost Patty Mills and Diamon Simpson from last season, many expected the Gaels to fall back a few notches in the West Coast Conference. However, that has not happened, as they are right in the mix for both the conference championship and an at-large bid. Center Omar Samhan is one of the best big men in the country, averaging 21.7 points and 11.1 rebounds every night to go with 3.0 blocks. Former Indiana transfer Ben Allen is an excellent shooter and passer for his size, and he can also rebound well. Forward Clint Steindl has started the last 17 games for Saint Mary’s, after guard Wayne Hunter went down after seven games. The backcourt of Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell is versatile and can do a variety of things. They combine to average 26.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game, and both shoot better than 41 percent from three.

Gonzaga has rebounded nicely from the losses of Jeremy Pargo, Austin Daye, Josh Heytvelt and Micah Downs, and are looking more and more like a team that can get back to the Sweet Sixteen. The team revolves around the experienced guard duo of Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray. Bouldin is one of the best all-around players in the country, and is nearly impossible to stop when driving to the basket. Gray can shoot from three effectively, but he has been inconsistent this season. Demetri Goodson has been a disappointment at the point. Freshman Elias Harris has grown into a potential first-round pick with his play, absolutely dominating since late December. Robert Sacre has been up-and-down all season, but can be a solid offensive option down low. Mark Few has a few decent options off the bench, namely Bol Kong and Kelly Olynyk.

In the first meeting between the two teams, Samhan dominated the post, finishing with 31 points and 12 rebounds, but Harris matched him, going for 31 and 13. The difference was Gonzaga’s ability to get to the free-throw line (22 attempts to 10) and control the backboards (45 to 25). Moreover, the Bulldogs shot nearly 60 percent from the field. Even if Samhan goes off again, the Gaels don’t really have anyone to guard Harris or Bouldin; both players are capable of carrying Gonzaga. The Saint Mary’s guards are going to have to provide plenty of outside production if the Gaels are going to win on the road.

Prediction: Gonzaga 78, Saint Mary’s 72

Poll: Gonzaga vs St Mary's: Best in the WCC?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 10:48:03 -0500

WCC Basketball Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:10:06 -0500

Gonzaga lacks the star power of recent seasons, so perhaps this is the year they get knocked out of 1st place. Portland looks to have the best chance, but Santa Clara, San Diego, and Saint Mary's are no slouches either.

Conference Rank: 16th

10 year average: 12th

Conference Page

All-WCC Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Matt Bouldin	Gonzaga	Sr
G	Nik Raivio	Portland	Sr
G	Brandon Johnson	San Diego	Sr
F	Dior Lowhorn	San Francisco	Sr
C	Omar Samhan	Saint Mary's	Sr

Player of the Year - Matt Bouldin Freshman of the Year - Matthew Dellavedova (SMC)
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Matt Bouldin (1st Team) Omar Samhan (3rd) Steven Gray Brandon Johnson Dior Lowhorn		Best Scorer: Dior Lowhorn Best Rebounder: Omar Samhan Best Playmaker: Brandon Johnson

WCC Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

31	Gonzaga	WCC	1	NCAA
88	Portland	WCC	2	CBI/CIT
121	Santa Clara	WCC	3	CBI/CIT
173	St. Mary's	WCC	4
196	San Diego	WCC	5
254	Pepperdine	WCC	6
300	San Francisco	WCC	7
339	Loy Marymount	WCC	8

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the WCC?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Best Non-BCS Conference in 2009-10?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:05:41 -0500

Poll: Who Will Win the WCC?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:51:30 -0400

Gonzaga Basketball Preview: #31

Joel Welser — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 10:43:55 -0400

Overall Rank: #31

Conference Rank: #1 West Coast Conference

2008-09: 28-6, 14-0

2008-09 postseason: NCAA

Coach: Mark Few (264-66 at Gonzaga, 264-66 overall)

This will not be the first time Gonzaga needs to reload, but with four starters gone, it will not be easy for Coach Mark Few to keep this group on the national radar. Austin Daye, Micah Downs, Josh Heytvelt and Jeremy Pargo led the Bulldogs to the Sweet Sixteen and a perfect West Coast Conference record. It could happen again, but Gonzaga will need to find a few new superstars.

Key Losses: F Ira Brown, F Austin Daye, G Micah Downs, F Josh Heytvelt, G Jeremy Pargo

Key Newcomers:

This may not be the best recruiting class to step foot in Spokane, but it is a big group. Coach Few has three redshirt freshmen, six incoming freshmen and one transfer that will all battle for minutes. Mangisto Arop is arguably the most talented of them all. The 6-5 wing is already becoming stronger than he was while playing high school in Canada and should provide an offensive spark off the bench. Sophomore Bol Kong, a native of Sudan, is also an intriguing prospect on the wing. Point guard G.J. Vilarino was on his way to Kentucky until the coaching change and is expected to be the point guard of the future and a contributor as a freshman. However, unless the Bulldogs play small, Sam Dower may be the most important newcomer this season. The 6-11, 228 pound freshman could step immediately into a starting role and is at least the most likely big man among the newcomers to play significant minutes off the bench.

Backcourt:

Do-it-all guard Matt Bouldin is the lone returning starter. After averaging 13.6 points, 3.4 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals a year ago, Bouldin has to be the go-to-guy for this team. Not only will Bouldin be asked to put up big numbers in just about every statistical category, but as a senior he will also need to be a leader on the floor. Getting a little more consistency out of Steven Gray would help take the pressure off Bouldin. Gray averaged 9.1 points per game last year, but he still is pretty much an outside shooter and once he gets aggressive going to the basket his scoring output will soar.

Frontcourt:

The frontcourt lacked depth last year once Robert Sacre went down with an injury and now things look a whole lot worse without Heytvelt and Daye. Sacre is the still the most experienced option after starting ten games as a freshman. During the 2008-2009 campaign, the 7-0 center only played in five games before suffering a foot injury. Other than Sacre, Will Foster is the only other returning big man and the senior has been around for a while, but he has never played very many minutes. Last season he just averaged 6.8 minutes per game in 24 contests. If Sacre gets hurt again, the Zags frontcourt will be in big trouble.

Who to Watch:

Demetri Goodson only averaged 13.4 minutes per game last year, but most feel he is ready to take over the point guard duties and lead this team back to the NCAA Tournament. The 5-11 sophomore seemed to improve with every game as a freshman and proved that he could handle the ball and handle the pressure, as was seen in Gonzaga’s second round victory over Western Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.

Final Projection:

A lot of pressure will fall on Goodson, but he is a quality player, albeit young and relatively inexperienced. As long as he takes care of the ball and finds Gray and Bouldin on the wings, Gonzaga will win the West Coast Conference. The frontcourt will work itself out and Coach Few has some options amongst the newcomers. Do not be surprised to see this team run some small ball and put a 6-5 or 6-6 wing at the power forward spot and have Sacre handle a majority of the minutes under the basket.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA

Projected Starting Five:

Demetri Goodson, Sophomore, Guard, 3.8 points per game

Steven Gray, Junior, Guard, 9.1 points per game

Matt Bouldin, Senior, Guard, 13.6 points per game

Sam Dower, Freshman, Forward, DNP last season

Robert Sacre, Sophomore, Center, 3.0 points per game

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College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

College Basketball: Preseason Conference Ranking

CHN — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:43:04 -0400

After finishing 1st in the RPI the last two years, the ACC should fall back slightly thanks to the big-name departures at UNC & Wake Forest. This should allow one of the Big 12, Big Ten, or even SEC a shot at being #1. The Pac-10 is weak enough that a high-major like the A-10, MVC, or MWC could surpass it.

Chime in with your thoughts below if you agree or disagree with CHN's preseason conference ranking.

2009-10 Conference Ranking

*08-09 is last year's conference RPI. Commentary by Shawn Siegel, ranking by CHN.

	Conference	08-09*
1	Big Ten 9 of 11 teams go into season with ncaa hopes, and as many as 7 may reach that goal	2
2	Big 12 ku is the clear title contender. the bottom few teams are weak though and the middle-tier is hit or miss	3
3	ACC no dominant team like last year, but solid as always.	1
4	SEC rise of uk brings league back to prominence after down year..	6
5	Big East lose tons of big name players, and still held down by likes of depual, rutgers, etc	4
6	Pac-10 conceivable the pac-10 only receives 3 tourney bids.	5
7	Atlantic 10 should get at least 2 invites to the ncaa tournament	8
8	MVC with improvement expected from usual leaders creighton & siu, mvc should be solid all-around	9
9	MWC just about every top team loses a top player, but mwc should be one of the more entertaining leagues	7
10	Conference USA though memphis takes step back, rest of league is better than usual.	10
11	WAC after some down years, wac will once again be compeititve league	11
12	Horizon butler has top 10 hopes, but squads like csu and green bay lose key seniors.	12
13	Colonial while still 1 bid league, likes of odu, n'eastern, gmu, and vcu are all quality	14
14	Sun Belt more then just wku, the entire east division is solid	17
15	MAAC siena, niagara, and rider all have postseason hopes	13
16	WCC gonzaga and smc both worse then season ago	15
17	MAC #'s should be better than last year, but west division still a struggle	21
18	Big West led by up-and-coming long beach state. always finish around this #.	18
19	Summit darling ndsu loses a lot, so usual contenders like oru and oakland should be at forefront again	26
20	Big Sky with exception of sacramento st, this is a solid league top to bottom.	24
21	Southland underrated league always good for some non-conference upsets	19
22	Ivy cornell will be the best the ivy has offered in quite some years	29
23	Southern steph curry's departure opens up door for charleston	20
24	America East decimation of binghamton will hurt league #'s	16
25	Atlantic Sun the league's upper half is as solid as it's been for a few years	27
26	Patriot could use a rebound from former top gun bucknell.	22
27	OVC morehead st continues its improbable rise..	23
28	Big South outside of radford, not much to get excited about here..	25
29	NEC nec hasn't had much going for it in recent years	28
30	MEAC as usual, will battle swac for title of country's worst	30
31	SWAC solid jackson st gives swac hope of surpassing meac	31

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Conference Tournament Odds: High-Majors

Evan Dorey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:52:19 -0400

Tournament Odds: High-Major Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find.

Atlantic 10 - March 11-14

Held in Atlantic City, NJ, the A-10 tournament features 12 of the league’s 14 teams, with the top four earning a bye directly to the quarterfinals.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Xavier	100.00%	88.67%	60.89%	45.37%
2	Rhode Island	100.00%	67.75%	35.41%	11.80%
3	Dayton	100.00%	78.89%	46.64%	17.05%
4	Temple	100.00%	79.29%	32.52%	20.27%
5	Saint Joseph's	71.34%	17.42%	3.51%	1.25%
6	Richmond	68.91%	17.08%	5.64%	0.95%
7	Duquesne	59.98%	21.43%	8.29%	1.85%
8	La Salle	55.47%	6.82%	1.75%	0.53%
9	St. Louis	44.53%	4.51%	0.99%	0.26%
10	Massachusetts	40.02%	10.82%	3.27%	0.54%
11	St. Bonaventure	31.09%	4.03%	0.75%	0.06%
12	Charlotte	28.66%	3.29%	0.33%	0.06%

Xavier is the clear favorite, but Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island all have a decent shot of taking the title. The bottom 8 teams are separated by a relatively small amount, with Duquesne and Richmond looking like the best bets for surprise runs.

Colonial - March 6-9

The Colonial Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	94.56%	83.70%	58.63%
2	George Mason	100.00%	83.28%	52.85%	22.67%
3	Northeastern	100.00%	70.20%	33.03%	11.76%
4	Old Dominion	100.00%	65.32%	10.70%	2.94%
5	Hofstra	89.78%	34.02%	3.86%	0.74%
6	Drexel	86.17%	28.77%	9.19%	2.16%
7	James Madison	76.07%	15.00%	4.62%	0.85%
8	Georgia St.	46.20%	2.32%	0.69%	0.08%
9	Delaware	53.80%	3.12%	1.03%	0.14%
10	William & Mary	23.93%	1.72%	0.22%	0.02%
11	Towson	13.83%	1.03%	0.08%	0.00%
12	NC Wilmington	10.22%	0.66%	0.01%	0.00%

VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.

(Ed: As expected, VCU locked up the title Monday night)

Conference USA - March 11-14

The C-USA tournament will be held in Memphis, TN, and give the top four teams a first-round bye.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Memphis	100.00%	98.60%	94.04%	86.69%
2	Tulsa	100.00%	89.61%	49.28%	5.70%
3	UAB	100.00%	79.65%	43.55%	5.13%
4	Texas El Paso	100.00%	46.00%	2.25%	0.75%
5	Houston	91.19%	52.96%	3.37%	1.38%
6	Central Florida	81.82%	19.19%	5.56%	0.27%
7	Marshall	60.25%	7.15%	1.13%	0.03%
8	Tulane	60.00%	0.97%	0.25%	0.04%
9	East Carolina	40.00%	0.43%	0.08%	0.01%
10	Rice	39.75%	3.24%	0.36%	0.01%
11	USM	18.18%	0.011584	0.11%	0.00%
12	SMU	8.81%	1.04%	0.01%	0.00%

As if Memphis needed more help, the tourney being in its hometown boosts its odds to the best of any team in the country. Tulsa and UAB seem to be the only teams that have a chance, but let’s face it, anyone but Memphis lifting the trophy will be the biggest shock of the month.

Horizon - March 3-10

The four first round winners will play between themselves to sort out who ends up as the opponents for the top two finishers, who got byes all the way to the semis, with the higher seeds hosting all games.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Butler	100.00%	85.75%	68.21%
2	Green Bay	100.00%	56.44%	16.23%
3	Cleveland St.	82.05%	40.42%	11.42%
4	Wright St.	63.62%	10.54%	3.17%
5	Milwaukee	36.38%	3.71%	0.75%
7	Illinois Chicago	17.95%	3.14%	0.21%

Butler is the pretty clear favorite, and it will be tough for any team but Cleveland St. to make it through the first two rounds to the final.

MAAC - March 6-9

The MAAC tournament gives first round byes to the top two teams, with all games hosted in Siena’s home building, the Times Union Center in Albany.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Siena	100.00%	93.01%	84.81%	57.87%
2	Niagara	100.00%	88.73%	73.51%	34.06%
3	Rider	100.00%	65.54%	16.42%	3.50%
4	Manhattan	100.00%	48.97%	5.81%	1.21%
5	Fairfield	100.00%	51.03%	6.25%	1.34%
6	St. Peter's	100.00%	34.46%	5.47%	0.76%
7	Iona	72.09%	9.69%	4.23%	0.66%
8	Loyola MD	64.81%	5.35%	2.58%	0.52%
9	Canisius	35.19%	1.64%	0.55%	0.07%
10	Marist	27.91%	1.58%	0.37%	0.03%

A pretty clear two-horse race sees the hometown team being the favorites, and a good Siena-Niagara final looks awfully likely.

(Ed: As expected, Siena locked up the title Monday night)

Missouri Valley - March 5-8

Arch Madness features the bottom four teams battling for quarterfinals spot, and the top six getting byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Northern Iowa	100.00%	85.62%	66.54%	38.32%
2	Creighton	100.00%	85.61%	49.52%	27.45%
3	Illinois St.	100.00%	82.32%	43.51%	23.21%
4	Bradley	100.00%	67.10%	21.45%	7.10%
5	Southern Illinois	100.00%	32.90%	6.53%	1.31%
6	Evansville	100.00%	17.68%	3.82%	0.84%
7	Wichita St.	65.34%	11.02%	2.64%	0.60%
8	Drake	56.54%	8.91%	3.60%	0.77%
9	Indiana St.	43.46%	5.47%	1.88%	0.33%
10	Missouri St.	34.66%	3.37%	0.50%	0.07%

There’s not much surprise that the three teams that were at the head of the conference all season look to have the best chances at taking the auto-bid.

(Ed: As expected, UNI locked up the title.)

MWC - March 11-14

The bottom two teams meet in the opening round of the MWC Tournament, hosted on UNLV’s home court in Las Vegas.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Brigham Young	100.00%	97.00%	66.45%	40.19%
2	Utah	100.00%	89.76%	40.59%	16.81%
3	New Mexico	100.00%	90.23%	56.55%	28.47%
4	San Diego St.	100.00%	35.87%	9.25%	3.06%
5	UNLV	100.00%	64.13%	24.10%	11.18%
6	Wyoming	100.00%	9.77%	1.77%	0.19%
7	Texas Christian	100.00%	10.24%	1.09%	0.09%
8	Colorado St.	46.01%	1.27%	0.08%	0.00%
9	Air Force	53.99%	1.73%	0.12%	0.01%

BYU is the favorite, but the winner of a potential New Mexico-Utah semifinal would also have a good chance of taking the title. UNLV’s home advantage should see it past SDSU and could propel it all the way to the auto-bid.

Southern - March 6-9

The SOCON Tournament is in Charleston, SC, and uses a divisional system, with the top 4 teams getting first round byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
N1	Chattanooga	100.00%	58.68%	21.71%	2.96%
S1	Davidson	100.00%	94.62%	82.67%	72.43%
N2	Western Carolina	100.00%	28.29%	2.21%	0.69%
S2	The Citadel	100.00%	72.60%	51.19%	12.12%
N3	Samford	87.80%	26.70%	13.71%	1.81%
S3	College of Charleston	91.05%	69.55%	13.24%	7.74%
N4	Appalachian St.	77.37%	4.94%	1.75%	0.61%
S4	Wofford	76.38%	36.18%	12.55%	1.58%
N5	Elon	23.62%	5.14%	0.75%	0.04%
S5	Georgia Southern	22.63%	0.44%	0.07%	0.01%
N6	NC Greensboro	8.95%	2.16%	0.06%	0.01%
S6	Furman	12.20%	0.70%	0.09%	0.00%

Between Davidson, Charleston and The Citadel, the South division should dominate the tournament.

(Ed: Chattanooga won the SoCon tournament, the only High-Major league so far in which our highest rated team didn't win.)

Sun Belt - March 4-10

The first round of the Sun Belt conference will be played at campus sites, with the 13-team tournament meaning three first round byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Western Kentucky	100.00%	90.49%	75.07%	55.40%
2	Arkansas Little Rock	100.00%	65.40%	41.27%	17.21%
3	Troy	100.00%	61.10%	27.52%	9.23%
4	North Texas	93.35%	58.60%	14.54%	6.11%
5	Middle Tennessee	71.43%	29.94%	5.46%	1.74%
6	South Alabama	90.37%	37.68%	13.99%	3.83%
7	Denver	91.25%	33.76%	16.96%	5.25%
8	Louisiana Lafayette	73.45%	7.57%	2.78%	0.70%
9	Florida International	26.55%	1.94%	0.56%	0.11%
10	Louisiana Monroe	8.75%	0.85%	0.13%	0.01%
11	New Orleans	9.63%	1.22%	0.13%	0.01%
12	Arkansas St.	28.57%	10.22%	1.52%	0.40%
13	Florida Atlantic	6.65%	1.24%	0.07%	0.01%

Western Kentucky look primed to return to the tournament, but after that there’s a host of teams that will challenge for the spot.

WAC - March 10-14

The WAC tournament features a single first round game between the #8 and #9 seeds, and will be on Nevada’s home floor in Reno.

#	Team	W	F	W
1	Utah St.	100.00%	89.40%	71.39%	41.57%
2	Nevada	100.00%	89.99%	74.64%	44.22%
3	Idaho	100.00%	50.12%	10.97%	2.85%
4	Boise St.	100.00%	52.31%	13.57%	4.07%
5	New Mexico St.	100.00%	47.69%	11.64%	3.30%
6	Louisiana Tech	100.00%	49.88%	10.88%	2.82%
7	San Jose St.	100.00%	10.01%	3.52%	0.59%
8	Hawaii	47.47%	4.79%	1.48%	0.25%
9	Fresno St.	52.53%	5.81%	1.92%	0.35%

Nevada’s home court advantage gives them a serious chance of causing an upset in what would otherwise be a romp for the Aggies. The 3-6 teams don’t show a lot of separation, and any could pull an upset of the top two.

WCC - March 6-9

The WCC is playing its tournament at a neutral site in Las Vegas for the first time, but the format, with a double-bye for the top 2 seeds and a bye for seeds 3 and 4, is the same as it has been.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Gonzaga	100.00%	100.00%	95.82%	82.70%
2	St. Mary's	100.00%	100.00%	68.22%	12.64%
3	Portland	100.00%	86.67%	30.71%	3.64%
4	Santa Clara	100.00%	67.53%	3.31%	0.85%
5	San Diego	91.55%	32.07%	0.87%	0.14%
6	Pepperdine	58.80%	8.80%	0.78%	0.02%
7	San Francisco	41.20%	4.53%	0.29%	0.01%
8	Loyola Marymount	8.45%	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%

With just 2 games, Gonzaga should definitely be favored, but Patty Mills’ return will definitely be worth watching.

(Ed: As expected, Gonzaga locked up the title Monday night)

Also: Mid-Major Conference Tournament Odds

Also: BCS Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage

+2009 NCAA Tournament
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