Baylor

Kentucky vs Baylor: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 08:50:53 -0700

(1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor: South Region

Records

Kentucky 35-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Baylor 30-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Time: 2:20 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (4) Louisville or (7) Florida, Saturday in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90

Baylor def. South Dakota State, 68-60; def. Colorado, 80-63; def. Xavier 75-70

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 2

Baylor 9

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 147)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (11.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.1 spg); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.4 ppg, 1.5 apg, 47% 3s). Lamb’s perimeter game has been a key to the Wildcats’ tremendous season. On Friday, Lamb went 6-for-10 from the field, hit his only 3-point shot and all eight of his free throws for 21 big points to help UK advance past rival Indiana.

Baylor: F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.8 spg); F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.4% FG). Acy was a monster in Friday’s win over Xavier. After scoring 11 points in the Bears’ first two NCAA games, the senior went for 20 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal in the triumph.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: On top of having the nation’s best interior defense and transition offense, Kentucky showed it can shoot the basketball in Friday’s win. A relative weakness early in the season, the Wildcats ran their half-court offense efficiently, hitting half of their 3-point shots (5-of-10) and 94.6 percent of their free throws (35-of-37). There’s not much this team doesn’t do well.

Baylor: The Bears are one of two teams in the tournament – along with North Carolina – that can stack up with Kentucky’s size and skill. When at its best, Baylor is as deep in talent as any team in the country. The Bears also shoot well. On Friday, they shot 50.9 percent from the field and made 12-of-14 free throws. For the season, they are shooting 47 percent from the floor, 38.5 percent from behind the 3-point line and 75.1 percent at the free throw line. All three rank in the top 32 in the country. Baylor out-rebounds its opponents by 5.4 boards per game. Defensively, the Bears force 14.2 errors and get 7.6 steals per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: The Wildcats make only 6 3-pointers per game, so if they fall behind, they could struggle to shoot themselves back into a game. Kentucky forces just 11.6 turnovers per game and, at times, it has had trouble with turnovers in the past, although it had just six against Indiana. The Wildcats aren’t very deep. Only one Wildcat played more than six minutes off the Kentucky bench on Friday. Against a big, physical Baylor squad, foul trouble could be an issue for the Cats.

Baylor: The Bears are prone lapses, sometimes in short spurts and sometimes game-long. They are also prone to turnovers, coughing up the ball 13.8 times per game. Baylor has allowed opponents to get to the foul line 638 times and on Friday Xavier shot 24 against them while Kentucky got to the stripe 37 times against Indiana. Baylor’s interior defense sometimes lacks aggression. On Friday, Musketeer center Kenny Frease was 7-for-10 from the field for 18 points. Frease is no Anthony Davis.

The Bottom Line: After Kentucky’s performance on Friday, I don’t have the guts to pick an upset. But the Wildcats are going to get Baylor’s best shot. The Bears will go on some runs and will push the Wildcats. This should be one of the best games of the tournament so far.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Baylor 77

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 215-171-6 (Through Regional Semis)

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:59:20 -0700

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

Baylor vs Xavier: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 07:36:28 -0700

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier: South Region

Records

Baylor 29-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Xavier 23-12, 10-6 A-10 (At large)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (4) Indiana, Sunday

Tournament Results

Baylor def. South Dakota State, 68-60; def. Colorado, 80-63

Xavier def. Notre Dame, 67-63; def. Lehigh, 70-58

Rankings

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Baylor 9

Xavier 37

Line: Baylor -6 (O/U 140)

Players to Watch

Baylor: F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (13.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.4% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 41.8% 3s); G Brady Heslip, 6-2 So. (10.3 ppg, 45.5% FG, 45.6% 3s). If Heslip shoots like he did against Colorado – 9-of-13 from the 3-point line for 27 points – there may not be a team in the country that can beat the Bears.

Xavier: G Tu Holloway, 6-0 Sr. (17.3 ppg, 5 apg, 1.3 spg); G Mark Lyons, 6-1 Jr. (15.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.3 spg); C Kenny Frease, 7-0 Sr. (9.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.1 bpg). Frease had a season-high 25 points – his previous best was 19 in a 65-57 win over Richmond – and had his first double-double since March 3 with 12 boards in Sunday’s win over Lehigh.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Baylor: The Bears are long and athletic, causing mismatches for almost every team they face. Against Colorado, Baylor out-rebounded the Buffaloes 34-27 and got 13 offensive boards. For the year, Baylor out-rebounds opponents by 5.4 per game. They also forced 13 turnovers, including nine steals. The Bears average 7.6 steals and force 14.2 turnovers per game. Led by Heslip, they were 11-for-20 from the 3-point line. All season, the Bears have been solid behind the arc, hitting 38.6 percent.

Xavier: Holloway is a great leader who usually saves his best performances for the biggest games, including 46 points through two games of this year’s tournament. Lyons and freshman Dez Wells make up a strong backcourt, helping the Musketeers average 13.2 assists and six steals per game. Xavier excels through its defense, which allows opponents to shoot just 39.9 percent from the floor and 30.5 percent from the arc this season. Lehigh, which entered Sunday’s game red-hot, shot just 21-for-64 against the Musketeers.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Baylor: The Bears are far too error-prone, averaging 13.8 turnovers per game. Despite their incredible size and an almost nightly athleticism advantage, Baylor often prefers to stick to shooting jump shots. That has led to only 46.9 percent from the field for the year. Their inconsistency has also been noted, even by Xavier coach Chris Mack. Although Mack said in a radio interview with Dan Dakich Monday that he’s sure the Bears will come to play, lack of intensity is always a concern for fans in Waco.

Xavier: Frease is inconsistent and prone to foul trouble. Xavier has very little frontline depth and out-rebounds opponents just 36.4-34.1 per game. They also allow opponents to rebound 30.2 percent of their misses and gave up 13 offensive boards to a smaller Lehigh team, which could be a big concern against the bigger, more athletic Baylor frontline. X turns the ball over 12.5 times per game and allows opponents 6.4 steals per contest. Their 69.2 percent free throw shooting is also a concern.

The Bottom Line: On the one hand, Xavier has a tough time guarding the paint and will be overwhelmed by Baylor’s bigs. On the other, Baylor has had a tough time guarding the perimeter and the Musketeer guards could torch the Bears. Tough line, but I like the way Baylor’s guards played against Colorado.

The Pick: Baylor 75, Xavier 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 21:39:08 -0700

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.

Top 10 Performances of 2nd Round: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 21:41:31 -0700

The top 10 performances of the 2nd Round. No more intro is needed:

1 Brady Heslip, Baylor - 27 pts, 4 rbs, 9-12 from three. Against a Colorado team that had been winning with defense, Heslip exploded with 9 threes.

2 Kenny Frease, Xavier - 25 pts, 13 rbs, 2 blks - The biggest game of Frease's career. Previously had only 4 double-doubles all season and not a single 20 point game.

3 Draymond Green, Michigan St - 16 pts, 13 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Where would MSU be without him? Majerus sung Green's praises after SLU fell.

4 Walter Offutt, Ohio - 21 pts, 3 rbs, 4 stls, 4-4 from three. Offutt's hot shooting helped a team put 60 on the board vs. USF for first time since February.

5 Jae Crowder, Marquette - 17 pts, 13 rbs, 3 asts, 3 stls, 2 blks - There's a reason he earned so many Big East plaudits. Was the difference in a game that was closer than the score suggests.

6 Royce White, Iowa St - 23 pts, 9 rbs, 4 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk. Stat-sheet filler isn't greatest shooter, but take him off Iowa St and they're not even an NIT team.

7 Drew Gordon, New Mexico - 21 pts, 14 rbs, 2 asts - He accounted for 38% of the Lobos offense in a close loss to Louisville.

8 Robbie Hummel, Purdue - 26 pts, 9 rbs, 3 asts - Had monster 22 point first half, but faded along with Purdue's upset hopes. Still managed 43% of Purdue's points.

9 Aaron Craft, Ohio St - 17 pts, 10 asts, 3 rbs, 3 stls - Had his first 10 assist game of the season. Owned Gonzaga's opposing guards.

10 Marquis Teague, Kentucky - 24 pts, 7 asts, 4 rbs, 10-14 shooting. First 20-point game of the freshman's career. Where was this Teague 2 months ago?

Others of Note:

DJ Cooper, Ohio - 19 pts, 7 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Standard do-it-all performance from the Bobcats main main.

John Henson, North Carolina - 13 pts, 10 rbs, 4 blks, 2 steals - Back from injury, his presence was felt even more than his stats suggest.

Elijah Johnson, Kansas - 18 pts, 4 rbs, 3 asts, 2 stls - With Thomas Robinson struggling, he keyed Kansas to a comeback win.

Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati - 18 pts, 6 rbs, 2 stls - With Wright and Dixon 7-24 from the floor, Cincy needed Kilpatrick to step up.

Kendall Marshall, North Carolina - 18 pts, 11 asts, 4 rbs, 7-8 shooting. Every jumper he hit seemed to be worth 4 points to UNC.

Hollis Thompson, Georgetown - 23 pts, 5 rbs, 3 stls, 2 blks - Basically a one-man team in tough loss to NC State.

On to the Sweet Sixteen!

Baylor vs Colorado: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 13:45:02 -0700

(3) Baylor vs. (11) Colorado: South Region

Records

Baylor 28-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Colorado 24-11, 11-7 Pac-12 (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 8:40 p.m. Saturday

TV: TNT

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque

First round results

Baylor def. South Dakota State 68-60

Colorado def. UNLV 68-64

Winner will face: (2) Duke, (7) Notre Dame, (10) Xavier or (15) Lehigh, Friday at Atlanta

Rankings

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Baylor 9

Colorado 65

Line: -7½ (O/U 133)

Players to Watch

Baylor: F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.7 spg); F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (14 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 50.3% FG). With Perry Jones and Quincy Acy struggling, Jackson came up big in Baylor’s first-round win over South Dakota State. The junior college transfer scored 18 points on 6-of-11 from the field, along with two assists and two steals.

Colorado: F Andre Roberson, 6-7 So. (11.6 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 1.9 bpg); G Carlon Brown, 6-5 Sr. (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.9 apg); F Austin Dufault, 6-9 Sr. (10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 48.6% FG). Roberson is a nice offensive option, a strong defensive player and a rebounding machine. He had 12 points and 16 rebounds to help Colorado advance over SDSU on Thursday.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Baylor: Baylor is long, lean and athletic. The Bears are a nightmare matchup for just about anybody. The Bears are a good offensive team. They are shooting 47 percent from the floor and 38.1 percent from the 3-point line in scoring 74.7 points per game. They make seven 3s a game, and their offensive efficiency ranks 23^rd in the nation. The Bears rebound well. They get 12.2 offensive rebounds per game and out-board teams by 5.2 per game. With Jackson at the point, Baylor has a solid 1.07-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Colorado: The Buffaloes came ready to play and pounced on UNLV early Thursday. Colorado made 7-of-12 3s and held the Rebels to 23-of-71 from the field. Colorado’s defense is the reason it is in this tournament. In four Pac-12 tourney games, the Buffaloes held teams to 38.8 percent from the floor, including holding Arizona to 18-of-49 in the Pac-12 title game. Colorado forces 12.4 turnovers per game. They’re also strong on the boards, out-rebounding opponents by 3.4 per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Baylor: The Bears aren’t nearly aggressive enough. They have a size advantage on nearly every team in the country, yet they seem to prefer taking jump shots. Shot selection has been a serious issue all season. The Bears shot just 23-for-52 and attempted 20 3-point shots against an average Jackrabbit defense. They turn the ball over nearly 14 times per game, which could be an issue against a strong defensive Colorado team. They have turned the ball over at least nine times in 11 straight games and had 11 or more in nine of those 11 games.

Colorado: The Buffs really struggle on offense at times. Their offensive efficiency ranks 167^th in the nation and they turn the ball over more than 13 times and give up 6.2 steals per contest. They have negative assist-to-turnover ratio and turnover margin. Those aren’t good signs against an athletic Bear squad.

The Bottom Line: I think Baylor will probably win, but I don’t even trust them to do that after Thursday’s performance. So I’ll take the points. But my advice is avoid a team as inconsistent as the Bears, especially against a good defensive team.

The Pick: Baylor 67, Colorado 61

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

NCAA Tournament Preview: Frontcourts to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 20:27:34 -0700

While you definitely need guards to win a national title big men are very important in their own right. Whether a team has projected lottery picks or guys who have been solid throughout their careers, a team has to be able to hold their own in the paint. If not a tournament experience that can last two or three weeks gets derailed far sooner. Here are some front courts you'll need to know this week.

South Region

1. Kentucky
This one's pretty simple. The Wildcats have the nation's best freshman in Anthony Davis (who may also be the best player in the country regardless of class) and a wing in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who is one of the best leaders as well as a very talented player. Terrence Jones has played well of late, and while the effort may still wane on occasion he's extremely talented. This group is a big reason why the Wildcats are the overwhelming favorite to win it all.

2. Baylor
The Bears aren't that far behind Kentucky as they can go five deep with a few lottery-caliber talents mixed in. The two lottery guys are Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, with the former needing to remain engaged in the action consistently if the Bears are to make a deep run. Quincy Acy is the toughest of the bunch, a guy likely to enjoy a long pro career based on his effort and rebounding ability alone, with Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones rounding out the group.

3. Connecticut
The Huskies may not win the vote in the South for best front court but it's a safe bet that they'd win for most frustrating. Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi get the most minutes while Tyler Olander and Roscoe Smith will also rotate in. If they all play consistently the Huskies can do some damage this week. If not, Iowa State's Royce White will put on a show in Louisville.

Biggest question mark: Ryan Kelly's foot (Duke)
Kelly missed the ACC tournament due to his foot injury, and the Blue Devils have been preparing for Lehigh as if they won't have him. Kelly's absence changes things offensively, as he's able to play on the perimeter. That opens things up for their guards, and without him Duke has two guys inside (Mason and Miles Plumlee) instead of one.

Guys you'll love: UNLV's Mike Moser and Wichita State's Garrett Stutz
Moser can play both inside and out for the Runnin' Rebels, and the UCLA transfer was instantly one of the best players in the Mountain West. As for Stutz, he played well enough to earn first team All-MVC honors, and the seven-footer is a tough matchup in the paint for most teams.

The difference-maker: Cody Zeller (Indiana)
Other than the improvement of their returning players a big reason for Indiana's return to the national stage was the play of Zeller, who with Michigan's Trey Burke was the best freshman in the Big Ten. He opens things up for the Hoosiers' capable shooters, and he'll need to be at his best against a New Mexico State team that can hit the boards.

West Region

1. Michigan State
Two words, one man: Draymond Green. The Big Ten player of the year is the biggest reason why the Spartans won a share of the Big Ten regular season crown and followed that up with the Big Ten tournament title. But with Branden Dawson done for the year with a torn ACL the play of Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne has become even more important. They've done well to to this point, and if they can do so four more times a trip to New Orleans is more than possible.

2. Davidson
Surprised, huh? Don't be. De'Mon Brooks is one of the best players in the country who isn't a staple on "SportsCenter", winning SoCon Player of the Year as well as MVP of the conference tournament. Alongside him is Jake Cohen, whose game has progressed a great deal due in part to a stint with the Israeli national team over the summer. If the Wildcats beat Louisville it's a safe bet that these two are a big reason why.

3. BYU
Whether or not the Cougars reach the main field remains to be seen, but in all honesty their two big men are far better than what you'd generally find on a 14-seed. Noah Hartsock is effective either inside or out, and Brandon Davies is a handful in the paint. The key for BYU is to make sure they get the ball consistently, which can be an issue on occasion.

The X-factor: Tarik Black and foul trouble (Memphis)
This was a serious problem for the Tigers earlier this season, and there's no coincidence that as he's remained on the floor the Tigers have played their best basketball. Ferrakhon Hall helps but when Black gets the ball around the rim he's tough to stop. Keep him on the floor and Memphis can win multiple games in the tournament.

Guys you'll love: Drew Gordon (New Mexico) and Mike Scott (Virginia)
Both guys are familiar names by this point, which means that the choices could have been Julian Boyd (LIU Brooklyn) and T.J. Robinson (Long Beach State). But both Gordon and Scott had very good cases to win Player of the Year honors in their respective conferences but neither did. Virginia needs Scott to be the best player on the floor against Florida as they're low on numbers, and Gordon't the kind of interior presence that can lead a team to the Sweet 16 and beyond.

The difference-maker: Patric Young (Florida)
Young is a player talented enough to merit comparisons to Dwight Howard as a McDonald's All-American, and with his physical strength it's easy to see why. The key for Young: getting enough touches. That means no wild shot attempts from the Florida guards.

East Region

1. Ohio State
With Syracuse losing their most important piece Ohio State is now the favorite to win the East Region in the eyes of most people. Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas are both tough to slow down, but Thomas will need to exercise good shot selection on a consistent basis. On the wing there's Lenzelle Smith Jr., a player most tend to underestimate offensively, and Evan Ravenel gives them solid defense off the bench.

2. Florida State
The Seminoles may not have an All-America candidate along the lines of Sullinger but they do have athleticism and depth, two factors that helped them win the ACC tournament. Bernard James and Xavier Gibson are the starters while Jon Kreft and Okaro White provide depth off the bench. FSU is one of the biggest teams in the country and all of these guys can move as well.

3. Kansas State
The Wildcat front court is the big reason why many are picking them to go to the Sweet 16, as they hit the offensive boards with the best of them and top-seed Syracuse is a subpar defensive rebounding team. Jamar Samuels was a big reason why they swept the season series with Missouri, and both Thomas Gipson and Jordan Henriquez-Roberts have improved as the season's worn on.

Biggest question mark: Syracuse without Fab Melo
The Orange have plenty of front court talent without the sophomore from Brazil (and would have a very good argument to be on the above list), but on a team blessed with so much depth Melo was the closest to being indispensable. Without him both Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita will have to pick up the torch in the middle of their 2-3 zone.

Guys you'll love: Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) and Keith Wright (Harvard)
Vanderbilt's Jeffery Taylor deserves some mention here as well, but we'll go with the A-10 Player of the Year and one of the big reasons why Harvard's back in the Dance for the first time since 1946 instead. Nicholson finished two blocks short of a triple-double in the A-10 tournament final and his name will be called in June. Wright is the man the Crimson run their offense through and he's been extremely productive as a result.

The workhorse: Kevin Jones (West Virginia)
There are few players in America more valuable than Jones. Without him the Mountaineers most likely aren't playing in any tournament much less the Big Dance. The senior from Mount Vernon, NY led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season. "Money earnin'" indeed (that's the nickname for Mount Vernon).

Midwest Region

1. North Carolina
The expectation is that John Henson's left wrist is ready to go this week, and his presence on the court beside ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller makes UNC a much better defensive team. Henson's averaging more than three blocked shots per game, and when that's missing the Carolina perimeter defenders can get exposed some. James Michael McAdoo and Justin Watts will also see some time, with the undersized Watts more than willing to fill in wherever needed.

2. Kansas
If Anthony Davis doesn't win a particular National Player of the Year award it should go to Robinson. That's how much those two have separated themselves from the rest of the country. Robinson is essentially an automatic double-double for the Jayhawks, who also need Jeff Withey to show on the big stage that his improved play throughout the conference slate wasn't a mirage. It's highly likely that he will, although their battle with Detroit will provide a good test.

3. Creighton
The Bluejays have one of the best players in the country in sophomore Doug McDermott, who can score both inside and out for the Missouri Valley tournament champs. But there's also banger Gregory Echenique to account for, and those two have the ability to lead Creighton on a special run. The key for them will be defense, especially with a matchup with North Carolina awaiting them should the Bluejays take care of Alabama.

Most Improved: Henry Sims (Georgetown)
For three seasons Sims was essentially an afterthought for the Hoyas. Now he's an essential figure, leading the team in assists while also proving to be a capable scorer out to about 15 feet or so. If he's playing well the Hoyas offensively will prosper as a whole.

Guys you'll love: Rob Jones (Saint Mary's) and C.J. Leslie (NC State)
Jones has been a double-double machine this season for the Gaels, and while he's undersized at the four the senior can put opposing teams at a disadvantage regardless of his height. As for Leslie it would have been difficult to imagine him being in this spot a season ago, but that only displays how much he's improved. And he can finish well above the rim as well.

One last hurrah: Robbie Hummel (Purdue)
Hummel's absence last season due to a torn ACL was a major reason why the Boilermakers were bounced by VCU (but by no means should that take away from how well the Rams played). No JaJuan Johnson or E'Twaun Moore but the fifth-year senior can still get it done, and he'll have to if the Boilers are to get past Saint Mary's.

Baylor vs South Dakota St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 23:18:22 -0700

(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota St: South Region

Records

Baylor 27-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

South Dakota State 27-7, 15-3 Summit (Conference Tourney Champions)

Time: 7:27 p.m. Thursday

TV: TruTV

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

Winner will face: (6) UNLV or (11) Colorado, Saturday

Rankings

Baylor No. 9 AP; No.10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Baylor 9

South Dakota State 49

Line: Baylor -7½ (O/U 140½)

Players to Watch

Baylor: F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (14 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 50.3% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.7 spg); F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG). Jackson, who was the National JUCO Player of the Year last year at Southern Idaho, has made Baylor a viable Final 4 option. He’s the team’s 2^nd-leading scorer and he led the Bears in assists and steals.

S.D. State: G Nate Wolters, 6-4 Jr. (21.3, 6 apg, 5.2 rpg); F Jordan Dykstra, 6-8 So. (11.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 48.6% 3s); F Griffan Callahan, 6-4 Sr. (10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.4 spg). Wolters, who had 67 points and 16 assists during the Jackrabbits Summit League Tournament run, is the only player in the nation who is averaging at least 21 points, six assist, five rebounds and 1.5 steals.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Baylor: The Bears are as big, athletic and skilled as any team in the country. With 6-11 Jones and 6-9 freshman Quincy Miller, Baylor is a matchup nightmare for most teams. Baylor shot 47 percent from the field, 38.1 from the 3-point line and 75.1 from the free throw line. They ranked in the top-37 in the nation in all three categories.

S.D. State: Wolters gets to the rim almost at will, creates opportunities for his teammates and is a great finisher. Behind Wolters, SDSU turns the ball over just 10.5 times per game – one of the best rates in the country. The Jackrabbits have five players who made at least 32 3s this year, including Callahan, who made 75, and Dykstra, 51. If the Rabbits are on, they can compete with anyone. They beat Washington – a team with similar skill to Baylor – by 19 points on the road, so don’t expect them to be phased.

Why East Team is Vulnerable

Baylor: Despite their size and skill, Baylor is often too passive and finesse. For example, Jones shot 29 percent from the 3-point line, yet he hoisted 31 of them this season. The Bears out-rebounded their opponents by just three per game despite their length and they allowed opponents to shoot 45.9 percent from the floor and 36.3 percent from deep. Turnovers have also plagued them at times.

S.D. State: The Jackrabbits have almost no inside presence. They allowed opponents to shoot 44.9 percent against them and they had just a plus-0.7 rebounding margin in league play. Outside of Wolters, SDSU has no real athleticism. Competing with Baylor on the glass and getting 3-point shots over the long Bears could prove very difficult.

The Bottom Line: Baylor’s athleticism will completely overwhelm the Jackrabbits.

The Pick: Baylor 87, South Dakota State 69

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

Big 12 Pre-Tournament Teleconference Notes

Jon Teitel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 18:38:41 -0700

With the Big 12 holding it's pre-tournament teleconference on Monday morning, CHN writer Jon Teitel took some notes of what a few coaches had to say about their teams and matchups. Below are Baylor's Scott Drew, Missouri's Frank Haith and Kansas State's Frank Martin.

Baylor's Scott Drew (3-seed, South Region)

On the role league played in their preparation: "The Big 12 tournament helps us prepare for the NCAA tournament. I joke that the new uniforms are helping us win because now we know who we are passing to!"

On the title game loss to Missouri: "Losing to Missouri in the title game hopefully will provide us with a little extra motivation."

Thoughts on South Dakota State: "Anyone in the NCAA tournament like South Dakota State is a great team, and winning 27 games is hard to do. They are an outstanding shooting team and fundamentally sound."

On Pierre Jackson's tournament experience at the JUCO level: "I'm sure Pierre Jackson's title experience will make the transition to the NCAA tournament easier, but I doubt that he had police escorts from the hotel to the arena!"

On the seeds for Missouri and Kansas: "I thought Kansas and Missouri both had cases to be a #1 seed, and I was disappointed that neither of them got it."

Missouri's Frank Haith (2-seed, West Region)

Opening thoughts: "We have just been trying to do a little scouting on Norfolk State. We are focused on where we are now and just trying to win in the tournament."

On his team's health: "We got nicked up a little bit in the Big 12 tournament, but playing on Friday instead of Thursday will help us out a lot. When you play three straight days with a 7-man rotation it takes a toll, but it is also very impressive. When you look at what CT did last year, I hope we are prepared for the task at hand."

On their seed/location: "We are fine with a #2 seed and are excited with where we are at. If we could have played closer to home in St. Louis that would have been great for us. When we had the Final Four run [at] Texas we got to play in San Antonio."

On his senior leaders: "We have great leadership in Kim English and Marcus Denmon. They love to play the game but they want to win. They listen when you tell them to do something."

On the impact of the three: "The three-point shot is a great equalizer if you are lacking in other areas, as it stretches you out a little bit."

Kansas State's Frank Martin (8-seed, East Region)

Opening thoughts: "Coach Huggins' credibility created the foundation, and we have just continued to build on top of it rather than knock anything down. You have to have people on board who are completely unselfish and fully invested in the team."

On his team's (and the league's) seeding: "I do not have any sour grapes about being in the 8/9 game. For the Big 12 to not get a #1 seed is a little frustrating. Our RPI was in the low 40s, but all our other numbers were in the 20s."

On his upperclassmen: "Jamar Samuels has proven over the past 31 games that he is a more consistent player than he was last year. We will definitely depend on our upperclassmen who have been in the tournament before."

Kentucky's Run to Start in Louisville: South Region Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:54:54 -0700

.pdf bracket

The Kentucky Wildcats, as has been expected for quite some time, is the top overall seed and they will begin their (hopeful) journey to New Orleans on the floor of bitter rival Louisville. That won't be a problem however as Big Blue Nation likely planned months in advance for their first two games being at the KFC Yum! Center.

First up for them is the winner of the First Four game between Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky, with both possibilities offering up subplots that will certainly be discussed.

Ray Harper's led the Hilltoppers from the depths of the Sun Belt to the Big Dance, and a win would match them up with the preeminent program in the state. MVSU is led by head coach Sean Woods, who is a Kentucky alum and hish shot gave UK a 102-101 lead on Duke with 2.1 seconds remaining in the 1992 East Regional final (more on this angle later). But after that, one couldn't blame John Calipari if he were to ask what the perks of being the top overall seed are besides geographical preference.

That 8/9 game looks like a very good battle as Iowa State takes on Connecticut. The Huskies are one of the nation's biggest underachievers, going from preseason Top 5 to a team that some asked whether or not they'd end up in the NIT.

Jim Calhoun's team doesn't lack for talent and it's a safe assumption that they'll be prepared as Calhoun has lost just one opening game (2008 vs. San Diego) during his tenure in Storrs. But in Royce White they'll take on a 6'9" point guard, and the Cyclones' many perimeter shooters could give the Huskies trouble.

The two-seed in the region is Duke, and if the bracket plays out according to seeds we could end up with Kentucky/Duke for a trip to the Final Four...20 years after they met in Philadelphia in one of the greatest games ever played.

The Blue Devils will need a healthy Ryan Kelly to be at their best offensively, and their perimeter defense needs to be better as well. They'll have to beat Lehigh (C.J. McCollum) followed by Notre Dame (Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant) or Xavier (Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons) in order to reach the Sweet 16.

As for the three-seed, that distinction belongs to Scott Drew's Baylor Bears and their presence adds to the South Region's edge in the "projected NBA lottery picks" department. Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III are the leaders up front and the Bears can go five deep there, and guard Pierre Jackson has been one of the nation's best newcomers.

The Bears get South Dakota State and Nate Wolters first, and the Jackrabbits are capable of pulling off the upset. And that 6/11 battle between UNLV and Colorado could end up providing more suspense than the casual fan would think given the struggles of the Pac-12.

Indiana makes their return to the Big Dance and while Tom Crean's club is more than capable of stringing together some wins the committee didn't give them the easiest matchup. New Mexico State features the talented Wendell McKines and they've got some size inside as well.

The biggest "wrong" in the region: the 5/12 matchup, as both Wichita State and VCU have the potential to do some special things this month. Instead, one of them is guaranteed to head home. Kentucky will be the clear favorite to get through the region, but despite the Louisville to Atlanta path they didn't receive a road that's smoothly paved.

Winner: Kentucky

Best second round matchup: Wichita State vs. VCU

All-Region Team
G Austin Rivers (Duke)
G Jeremy Lamb (Connecticut)
F Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
F Royce White (Iowa State)
F Quincy Acy (Baylor)