Cincinnati

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 13:30:12 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 31 to 45.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31-45

31 UNLV UNLV loses two starters, though returnees Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall are two of the MWC's top talents. The hope is that incoming freshman Katin Reinhardt (7th best shooting guard by Rivals) helps offset the loss of sharp-shooter Chace Stanback.

32 Arizona While Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson are solid returning players, its really all about the newcomers. In Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, and Grant Jerrett, Arizona welcomes 4 Top 50 recruits with pro potential. The team's lack of star point guard could hold them back however.

33 Davidson Already the Southern Conference's elite team, Davidson should be even better next year with everyone of note returning. De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen form a solid inside-outside tandem, and with a little bit of luck in non-conference play, Davidson could be a Top 25 team. This is the year Davidson reaps the rewards of the Steph Curry recruiting bounce.

34 Tennessee Once Jarnell Stokes joined the team, Tennessee played like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch. With the likes of Golden and Maymom returning, the Vols could even surpass this projection.

35 Ohio Everyone returns from a team that was just a few possessions away from the Elite Eight. Despite that, Ohio will not be a lock for the MAC title with solid squads returning across the league. Perhaps the league can potentially return to multiple-bid territory?

36 Washington It all comes down to the Draft for Washington. Freshman Tony Wroten and sophomore Terrence Ross are potential 1st Round Draft picks. I'm assuming for this prediction, that one of the two returns. If both return, UW could certainly make a push for the Pac-12 title.

37 Georgetown While Georgetown had a Top 15 season, they lose their best guard in Jason Clark and best big in Henry Sims. Hollis Thompson should return along with emerging talent Otto Porter to form a solid frontcourt. 5-star recruit D'Vauntes Smith Rivera (ranked 22nd by Rivals) is the key however. He replaces Clark as the team's main cog in the backcourt.

38 Cincinnati Cincinnati heads into next season without seniors Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon. Besides losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, Gates was also their leading rebounder and main interior presence. With little recruiting help on the way, it will be key that Sean Kilpatrick continues to emerge as a bona fine star.

39 Colorado St The Rams were probably never as good as their RPI suggested, but they still had a damn good season. Will Bell is a minor loss, but the key cogs return for another shot at an MWC title. A pair of 3-star recruits join the fray as well, a better recruiting haul than usual.

40 St. Joseph's With the entire roster returning, St. Joseph's should be a contender for the Atlantic 10 crown. Anything less than a tourney bid would be extremely disappointing.

41 Murray St Although Isaiah Canaan is a star, others will need to step up now that Donte Poole, Ivan Aska, and Jewaun Long depart. In those three seniors, Murray loses almost 45% of its scoring. The program does potentially welcome the OVC's best recruiting class however.

42 UMASS Although leading rebounder Sean Carter graduates, UMASS should be in the A10's upper echelon. Do-everything sophomore guard Chaz Williams has been lighting up the NIT, and will be a contender for next season's A10 Player of the Year.

43 South Dakota St With no seniors on the roster, South Dakota St will be hoping to improve on their 1st round NCAA Tournament loss. Although Nate Wolters improved his all-around game this year, he needs to recapture the long-range shot that propelled him to 40% from three his sophomore year.

44 Purdue In Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson, and Ryne Smith, Purdue loses almost 50% of its scoring production, as well as their leaders in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Although there is young talent waiting to breakout and a top-25 recruiting class on the way, Purdue will need another year before they're a major contender.

45 Missouri Frank Haith will somehow try and rebound from this year's shock 1st round exit without Denmon, English, Ratliffe, or Pressey. Although Missouri is loading up on solid (though not amazing) freshmen, it will take another year or two before the new squad finds its identity.

>> Continue to Teams 46 to 60.

Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 30

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:25:26 -0700

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

Ohio St vs Cincinnati: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 07:42:30 -0700

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati: East Region

Records

Ohio State 29-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season 3-way conference champions; At large)

Cincinnati 26-10, 12-6 Big East (At large)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: TD Garden in Boston

Winner will face: (1) Syracuse or (4) Wisconsin, Sunday

Tournament Results

Ohio State def. Loyola (Md.) 78-59; def. Gonzaga, 73-66

Cincinnati def. Texas, 65-59; def. Florida State, 62-56

Rankings

Ohio State No. 7 AP; No. 7 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Cincinnati No. 27 AP; No. 29 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Ohio State 5

Cincinnati 37

Line: Ohio State -7½ (O/U 130½)

Players to Watch

Ohio State: F Jared Sullinger, 6-9 So. (17.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 53% FG); F Deshaun Thomas, 6-7 So. (15.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 53.2% FG); G Aaron Craft, 6-2 So. (8.8 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.4 spg). Craft is affective as a point guard even if he isn’t scoring. If he scores like he did in Saturday’s win – 7-of-9 field goals for 17 points – it makes the Buckeyes a true title contender.

Cincinnati: G Sean Kilpatrick, 6-4 So. (14.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.2 apg); F Yancy Gates, 6-9 Sr. (12.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 47.6% FG); G Jaquon Parker, 6-3 Jr. (9.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 apg). Despite making just two of his eight field goal attempts in Sunday’s win, Parker’s performance was key for the Bearcats. He had nine points, 11 rebounds and four assists in the victory.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have an elite post scorer in Sullinger, an elite inside-out scorer in Thomas and a dangerous 3-point shooter in William Buford. No team in America can match those three offensive outputs. OSU averages 74.8 points per game and shoots 48.2 percent from the field, including 25-of-53 against a strong Gonzaga defense. The Buckeyes can rebound with anyone, out-boarding opponents by 7.6 per game, they have a plus-3 turnover margin and a 1.26-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Craft is a strong floor leader, a savvy passer and an elite perimeter defender.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats have played great defense all season but particularly of late. They have held 12 straight opponents under 50 percent shooting. Cincy’s perimeter defense is outstanding. Opponents shoot just 31.9 percent from behind the 3-point line against them and they force 14.1 points turnovers per game. Teams are shooting just 41 percent overall against the Bearcats, including a 19-for-50 performance from Florida State on Sunday. Cincinnati forced 17 Seminole turnovers and blocked five shots. Cincinnati can put up points, too. The Cats play a fast pace and sometimes play it to perfection. Offensive balance – with all five starters averaging at least 9.3 points – is their key to success.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have almost no depth, so foul trouble against a rugged Cincinnati team could definitely be a concern. Although they are a very good rebounding team, the Bulldogs out-rebounded them 31-26 and OSU allowed them 11 offensive boards. OSU made 9-of-24 from behind the arc against Gonzaga, but for the season, it shoots just 32.9 percent from the field.

Cincinnati: Although they have had some offensive explosions, the Bearcats are limited offensively. They shoot just 42 percent from the field, 33.9 from behind the 3-point arc and 64.4 from the foul line. Cincinnati is thin on the frontline and out-rebounds opponents by just 0.4 boards per game. The Cats allow offensive rebounds 34.4 percent of the time.

The Bottom Line: Eight points is way too many for a defense playing as well as Cincinnati. Ohio State has some advantages, but the Bearcats should keep it fairly close.

The Pick: Ohio State 68, Cincinnati 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:46:40 -0700

Florida St vs Cincinnati: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 20:14:58 -0700

(3) Florida State vs. (6) Cincinnati: East Region

Records

Florida State 25-9, 12-4 ACC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Cincinnati 25-10, 12-6 Big East (At large)

Time: 9:40 p.m. Sunday

TV: 9:40 p.m.

Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

First round results

Florida State def. St. Bonaventure, 66-63

Cincinnati def. Texas, 65-59

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (7) Gonzaga, Thursday in Boston

Rankings

Florida State No. 10 AP; No. 12 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Cincinnati No. 27 AP; No. 29 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Florida State 10

Cincinnati 36

Line: Florida State -2½ (O/U 127)

Players to Watch

Florida State: F Bernard James, 6-10 Sr. (10.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 60.9% FG); G Michael Snaer, 6-5 Jr. (14.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 42.1% FG); G Luke Loucks, 6-5 Sr. (6.7 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.2 rpg). James was outstanding Friday, particularly during the Seminoles second-half comeback in the win over St. Bonaventure. James finished with 19 points, nine rebounds (four on the offensive end), three blocks and he helped hold St. Bona star Andrew Nicholson in check late in the triumph.

Cincinnati: G Sean Kilpatrick, 6-4 So. (14.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.1 apg); F Yancy Gates, 6-9 Sr. (12.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 47.2% FG); G Dion Dixon, 6-3 Sr. (13.1 ppg, 2.1 apg, 1.6 spg). Kilpatrick showed signs of brilliance as a freshman and he has lived up to the promise as a sophomore. On Friday, the White Plains, N.Y., native didn’t score much, but he finished with eight points, six assists, four rebounds, two steals and a blocked shot, and he continues to show great court leadership.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Florida State: The Seminoles did what they do in Friday’s win, holding the Bonnies to 23-of-57 from the field and blocking nine shots in the win. For the year, teams manage just 38.1 percent from the floor and 30.9 from the 3-point line against FSU. The ‘Noles force 15.2 turnovers and block six shots per game. There’s no doubt this is the top handful of defensive squads in America. And FSU has proven more offensively capable this year than last year when they made a trek into the Sweet 16. On Friday, it shot 45.3 percent and made seven of its nine 3s. That came on the heels of a 58.9 percent shooting performance against North Carolina in the ACC championship game. FSU has shot at least 45 percent in five of its last six outings.

Cincinnati: Like Florida State, the Bearcats win with defense. Opponents shoot just 41 percent overall and 31.8 percent from deep against Cincinnati. And the Bearcat defense has been even better of late, holding their last 13 opponents to 46.4 percent or worse from the field. On Friday, Cincy held Texas to 20-for-57 from the floor and 7-for-20 from the 3-point line. The Bearcat offense has been pretty good lately, as well, scoring at least 65 points in five of their last six games.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Florida State: Despite the recent offensive “outbursts,” the Seminoles are not a stellar offensive team and are prone to long draughts. For the year, they are shooting just 45.8 percent from the floor and 35.4 from the 3-point line. They turn the ball over 16 times per game to just 12.2 assists per outing. Cincinnati’s defense could give Florida State all kinds of trouble.

Cincinnati: Despite scoring pretty well of late, Cincinnati’s offense isn’t very good. The Cats shoot just 42.1 percent from the field, 33.9 percent from the 3-point line and have allowed opponents to get to the free throw line 500 times this season. The Bearcats can also be beaten on the boards. They have just a 0.4 rebounding margin per game and that could get them beat against the big, bulky Seminoles.

The Bottom Line: This game could have fewer than 100 points scored. With that said, it would be foolish to bet the line. My advice is take the under instead. Since it’s my job to pick the line, I’ll take FSU to win and the Bearcats to cover.

The Pick: Florida State 47, Cincinnati 46

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 216-165-6 (Through Friday, March 17)

Round of 32 Against the Spread: 19-12-1

Cincinnati vs Texas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 22:32:26 -0700

(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas: East Region

Records

Cincinnati 24-10, 12-6 Big East (At large)

Texas 20-13, 9-9 Big 12 (At large)

Time: 12:15 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

Winner will face: (3) Florida State or (14) St. Bonaventure, Sunday

Rankings

Cincinnati No. 27 AP; No. 29 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Cincinnati: 41

Texas 53

Line: Cincinnati -2 (O/U 129½)

Players to Watch

Cincinnati: F Yancy Gates, 6-9 Sr. (12.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 47.2% FG); G Sean Kilpatrick, 6-4 So. (14.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.1 apg); G Cashmere Wright, 6-0 Jr. (10.9 ppg, 4.6 apg, 2 spg). Fitzpatrick showed flashes as a freshman, but his performance as a sophomore was still a pleasant surprise. Although he struggled in the Big East title game against Louisville, Kilpatrick scored 48 points, grabbed 14 boards and handed out 10 assists in the Bearcats’ 4-game conference tourney run.

Texas: G J’Covan Brown, 6-1 Jr. (20.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 3.3 rpg); G Myck Kabongo, 6-1 Fr. (9.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 1.2 spg); F Jonathan Holmes, 6-7 Fr. (7.2ppg, 4.8 rpg, 48.8% FG). Looking for a breakout star in 2012-13? Holmes might be the guy. The freshman struggled down the stretch, but he showed why the Longhorns have such high hopes for him in Friday’s Big 12 semifinal loss to Missouri with a 5-for-7, 11-point, 4-rebound performance in the loss.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Cincinnati: The Bearcats are playing their best basketball of the season. They’ve won four of their last five, including a win over No. 2 Syracuse in the Big East Tourney semis, and seven of their last nine – and they’re doing it with defense. The Cats are holding their opponents to 41.2 percent from the field, 31.7 from 3 and they’re forcing 14.1 turnovers per game, including 8.1 steals per contest. Cincy’s offense is balanced. All five starters average at least 9.2 points.

Texas: The Longhorns are guard-oriented and they’re capable of big scoring run. They have one of the nation’s most spectacular scorers in Brown, and six different Texas player average at least 7.2 points. Texas has made more 3-pointers (243) than any other Big 12 team (31.3 percent of their points come on 3s). The Longhorn defense forces 8.1 steals and 13.7 turnovers per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Cincinnati: The Bearcats really struggle to score. They scored 14 first-half points in Saturday’s Big East Tournament championship 50-44 loss to rival Louisville. They shot just 20-of-51 and turned the ball over 11 times in the loss. Despite some good size, the Bearcats were out-rebounded by Big East opponents.

Texas: The Longhorns have only one player over 6-7 on their roster, so Gates could have a big advantage for the Bearcats. The Horns shot just 43.6 percent from the field and 32.7 from the 3-point line and they turn the ball over 12.6 times per game. Kabongo and Brown, Texas’s two most talented players, combine for 5.6 turnovers per game.

The Bottom Line: This game could go a lot of different ways. The Cincinnati defense could be the difference. Expect the Bearcats to take advantage of their size and their pressure.

The Pick: Cincinnati 71, Texas 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.

Bearcats, Cardinals advance to Big East title game

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:51:47 -0800

The story of realignment is a tired yet necessary one, given the many changed that have altered the landscape of collegiate athletics in recent years. But with a team that's slated to leave the Big East soon the prohibitive favorite to win the Big East Championship, it was two teams who will remain in the league that stole center stage. Cincinnati will make their first-ever Big East title game appearance, taking on Louisville in another edition of a rivalry that goes all the way back to the days of the old Metro Conference. The times, they are a-changin'.

Mick Cronin's Bearcats were the lone team of the four playing who had never reached the semifinals, but they showed no stage fright in their matchup with top-seed Syracuse. Cincinnati scored the first seven points of the game and led by as many as 17 points in the first half, knocking down eight of their 13 three-pointers in the first half to take a 35-23 lead into the locker room. The shots didn't fall at the same rate in the second half for the Bearcats but they'd done just enough to hang on for the 71-68 win.

"I've got faith in my team. When our toughness rises to the level of our talent, we've got a great team," said Cronin. "We can beat anybody. We came here to win the tournament, and we've got one more tomorrow night at 9:00."

Yancy Gates and Sean Kilpatrick scored 18 points apiece to lead the way and guards Dion Dixon and Cashmere Wright added 11 apiece. The perimeter shooting may not have been there in the second half but the work on the offensive glass was, as Cincinnati grabbed thirteen offensive rebounds in the final 20 minutes. Dion Waiters led Syracuse with 28 points off the bench but with the starters all struggling it was an uphill battle for much of the night. The Orange can afford a couple guys having an off night due to their depth, but four of the five starters? Not going to happen against most teams.

Louisville also got out to a big lead, as they did against Marquette on Thursday night. But unlike Syracuse, Notre Dame didn't have the firepower needed to climb back from a large deficit and the Irish ended up on the short end of a 64-50 result. Notre Dame shot 2-for-17 from beyond the arc and just 35.8% from the field overall, and with the Cardinals shooting 56% Mike Brey's team was in for a long night. Gorgui Dieng led the way with 16 points and Peyton Siva chipped in with arguably his best game of the week, finishing with 13 points, nine assists, eight rebounds and just three turnovers.

When the junior point guard from Seattle plays well, Louisville plays well. That's been obvious all season long, but with it happening consistently this week on this stage the end result could be a nice boost to Louisville's seeding come Selection Sunday. The same can be said for the Bearcats, who as recently as two weeks ago still weren't considered to be a lock for the NCAA tournament. But they've grown throughout the season, and that growth has been rewarded with a Big East title game appearance.

Three Notable Performances

1. F Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
30 points (12-17 FG), 12 rebounds and three blocked shots in the Buckeyes' 88-71 win over Purdue in a Big Ten quarterfinal.

2. F Mitchell Watt (Buffalo)
32 points, 11 rebounds and three assists in the Bulls' 77-74 loss to Ohio in a MAC semifinal.

3. G Trey Burke (Michigan)
30 points (11-14 FG), three assists, two rebounds, two blocked shots and two steals in the Wolverines 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota in a Big Ten quarterfinal.

Bracketology Update: The Dreaded 8 and 9 Seeds

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 11:46:26 -0800

While getting an 8 or 9 seed as compared to a 10 or 11 seems like an accomplishment, its actually a kiss of death. #1 seeds are usually head and shoulders above the rest of the field, and 8-9 winners get stuck playing them in the 2nd round.

In my latest Bracketology projection, the following 8 teams are the unfortunate 8-9 seeds. For each team, I answer the following two questions: How can they earn 6 or 7 seeds? How can they drop to 10 or 11 seeds?

Alabama (20-10, 9-7, #32 RPI)

How can they rise? A win over South Carolina would not help Alabama's stature, so they can only rise if they then go on to beat Florida in the next round.

How can they fall? While the South Carolina game won't help Alabama's cause, it could certainly hurt it. Bama hasn't beaten a Top 50 team since November and their locker room is far from settled. A drop to a 10 seed is not out of the question with a loss.

Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6, #69 RPI)

How can they rise? Cincy just tipped off against Georgetown, which would certainly be a resume boosting win. But considering their low RPI and weak schedule, I don't think this one win would push them into a 7 seed. However, if they won and then beat Syracuse tomorrow, it would change everything.

How can they fall? As I just mentioned, Cincy's overall resume is far from sparkling. A loss could conceivably drop them into a 10 seed, but no lower than that.

Iowa St (22-9, 12-6, #31 RPI)

How can they rise? Now that Iowa St has garnered Top 25 respect and their RPI is creeping up towards the 20's, they have a good shot to move into a 6 or 7 seed with a win over Texas tonight. Even if they lost, there's a chance they could rise into the 7's depending on how other teams fare this week.

How can they fall? Even if Iowa St lost tonight, their solid conference success should ensure that they wouldn't drop below a 9 seed at worst.

Kansas St (21-10, 10-8, #43 RPI)

How can they rise? After losing to Baylor today, Kansas St's season is over, so there's nowhere to go but down.

How can they fall? Although a loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals is not terribly impressive, Kansas St is probably locked into this range. Losing to a Top 15 team in Baylor doesn't really hurt their resume, and the Wildcats RPI shouldn't drop by much.

New Mexico (23-6, 10-4, #34 RPI)

How can they rise? Beating Air Force tonight wouldn't help, so they'd need to go on and beat UNLV or Wyoming in the next round.

How can they fall? Considering New Mexico has been a fringe Top 25 team with a couple of marquee wins and a solid RPI, they won't fall below a 9 seed.

Purdue (20-11, 10-8, #44 RPI)

How can they rise? Purdue, the 6 seed in the Big Ten, faces #11 Nebraska tonight. To move up, Purdue would need to win this game and then also beat Ohio St tomorrow.

How can they fall? Although Purdue has a very solid resume, nothing really wows you. If they lost to Nebraska, a top 10 seed isn't out of the question though nothing much beyond that.

Saint Louis (23-6, 12-4, #30 RPI)

How can they rise? Saint Louis faces a very solid La Salle squad in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. With a win and help, SLU could easily earn a 7 seed.

How can they fall? Unless teams like Mississippi St, Cal, or Northwestern go on epic runs, its hard to see SLU falling below the 8-9 range even if they lost to La Salle.

Virginia (22-8, 9-7, #42 RPI)

How can they rise? Virginia awaits the winner of NC State/Boston College. Considering Virginia's best win in two months is over NC State, I'm not sure how much beating them again would help. Of course, if Virginia somehow made their way to the ACC finals, that would help.

How can they fall? Considering Vrginia hasn't won a Top 100 game since January, it wouldn't take much for them to fall. In fact, if they lost to NC State/BC tomorrow, an 11 seed would not be out of the question.

Bracketology: Saturday Afternoon Bubble Update

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 13:51:35 -0800

At this point in the season, a few hours can make or destroy a team's season. Besides conference titles on the line, at-large bids, NIT invites, and seeding remain up in the air. Since yesterday's Bracketology projection, here are the results that matter and how the impact postseason hopes:

Saturday Afternoon

Cincinnati 72 - Villanova 68
Having beaten Marquette last time out, Cincinnati seemed safely in the tournament for the first time in weeks. However, a loss to Villanova followed by a loss in the Big East Tournament could have pushed them right back to the edge. Instead, Cincy picked up a road win and a probable NCAA bid.

Cincinnati's projected seed: 10-11

Marquette 83 - Georgetown 69
Both of these teams were 3 seeds in my latest projection. Georgetown could certainly drop into the 4 seed range depending on how the likes of Wisconsin and Indiana fare over the weekend.

Marquette's projected seed: 2-3
Georgetown's projected seed: 3-4

Memphis 78 - Tulsa 66
With a win, the Tigers locked up the CUSA regular season title. With the tournament being held in Memphis, they have a great shot to win the postseason tournament as well. With a Top 25 RPI and a string of wins, Memphis is approaching a 6 seed.

Memphis' projected seed: 6-7

Murray St 54 - Tennessee St
It wasn't easy, but Murray St escaped with a 2-point win in the OVC Finals to lock up a bid. As a neutral bracketologist, a win by Tennessee St would have been much more interesting. Murray has a wider range of seeds compared to most teams considering their unique situation.

Murray St's projected seed: 4-6

Northwestern 70 - Iowa 66

Nothing comes easy for Northwestern. Wildcats trailed by a bunch, then led by a bunch, then escaped with a nail-biting win. As it is, Northwestern is still in the field, but a lot can change over the next week. A first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament could be enough to knock them right back out. (Iowa could have finished an impressive 9-9 with a win, but their best case postseason scenario is hosting an NIT first round game.)

Northwestern's projected seed: 11-13

Marshall 79 - Southern Miss 75
Southern Miss showed a lot of toughness fighting back from multiple deficits, but the Eagles could never pull away. A win would have no doubt locked up a bid for Southern Miss, but instead they drop closer to the bubble. I think they're still in, but there are a lot of analysts who question how good this team really is. (Marshall is fighting for an NIT bid, and this win certainly helped.)

Southern Miss projected seed: 11-12

UCONN 74 - Pittsburgh 65
The Huskies looked dominant in the first half, almost blew the lead, and then ended up pulling out a 9 point win. A loss would have 100% eliminated UCONN from NCAA Tournament contention. As it is, they exemplify what it means to be a bubble team. South Florida's loss to West Virginia definitely helped UCONN's cause.

UCONN's projected seed: 13 or NIT.

UNC-Asheville 80 - VMI 64
After a tight first half, VMI ran out of gas and UNC-Asheville cruised to the Big South title. Despite a solid 24-9 season and dominant Big South record, UNCA will most likely be looking at a 16 seed.

UNCA's projected seed: 16 (potentially in First Four game.)

UCLA 75 - Washington 69
While I question why the Pac-12 deserves more than one bid, you can rest assured the league will at least get 2 bids. This loss not only prevented the Huskies from locking up the regular season title, it also pushes them down out of a single-digit seed.

Washington's projected seed: 10-11

West Virginia 50 - South Florida 44
In an offensively inept game between bubble squads, West Virginia pulled out a huge road win. The Mountaineers once looked like a tourney lock, but needed two wins to close the season to remain in the field. As it is, they're in for now but can't be considered a 100% lock. After South Florida finally worked their way into my projected field of 68, they're back on the outside now. They certainly still have a chance to work their way back in, but if USF loses their first game at the Big East Tournament, they'd officially be toast.

West Virginia's projected seed: 11-12
South Florida's projected seed: NIT

Illinois St 65 - Wichita St 64

The Shockers have certainly locked up a bid, but this loss may have knocked them back from the lofty 4 seed I had them pegged at. More importantly, it opens the possibility that Illinois St could win the MVC title tomorrow over Creighton/Evansville and steal a bubble bid. Should be fun to watch tomorrow.

Wichita St's projected seed: 4-5

Xavier 72 - Charlotte 63
With 8 minutes to go, Charlotte led by 4 and Xavier's NCAA hopes were on the verge of collapsing. Tu Holloway scored 10 points in the final 8 minutes to spearhead a Xavier run that might have saved their season.

Xavier's projected seed: 12-13

Friday Night

BYU 73 - San Diego 68
The Cougars were pushed from the opening tip by San Diego, but escaped with a much-needed win. BYU's spot in the tournament is far from certain. Only if they go on to beat Gonzaga tonight would I say they're safe.

BYU's projected seed: 10-11

Creighton 68 - Drake 61
Doug McDermott's 26 points helped Creighton escape with a win over a pesky Drake squad. While Creighton is a tourney lock, a loss last night could have potentially dropped them as far as an 8 or 9 seed.

Creighton's projected seed: 6-7

Harvard 77 - Columbia 70 (OT)
While most have assumed for months that Harvard would win the Ivy League, they're only a half-game up on Penn. Not only would a lost last night have put Harvard's Ivy hopes in danger, it would have been crippling for their at-large hopes as well. There's no way the committee puts a 3-loss Ivy team into the tournament.

Harvard's projected seed: 11