Colgate

Wednesday'sTournament Predictions: Atlantic Sun, Big South, Patriot

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:18:38 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking almost conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks.

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(2) Coastal Carolina (19-10, 12-6) vs. (7) Virginia Military (15-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Coastal Carolina 87-78; Feb. 25 – Coastal Carolina 81-64*. RPI: Coastal Carolina 179; VMI 287. Analysis: The Chanticleers struggled late in the regular season. With a game under its belt, VMI should be able to keep this game close. Line: Coastal Carolina -6. Pick: Coastal Carolina 73, VMI 64.

(3) Campbell (17-14, 11-7) vs. (6) Winthrop (11-19, 8-10)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 17 – Campbell, 54-51*; Feb. 9 – Campbell, 67-58. RPI: Campbell 201; Winthrop 274. Analysis: Campbell really faded down the stretch. This could be the first conference tournament upset. Line: Campbell -1½. Pick: Campbell 61, Winthrop 60.

(1) UNC-Asheville (21-9, 16-2) vs. (8) High Point (11-19, 6-12)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Asheville, 86-79*; Jan. 26 – Asheville, 90-70. RPI: Asheville 123; High Point 276. Analysis: High Point has more talent than its record indicates and has a chance to keep this game close. Line: Asheville -8½. Pick: Asheville 80, High Point 73.

(4) Charleston Southern (18-11, 11-7) vs. (5) Liberty (14-17, 9-9)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Charleston Southern, 81-76*; Feb. 9 – Liberty 75-74*. RPI: Charleston Southern 178; Liberty 282. Analysis: CSU is the higher seed and has the better record, but Liberty is playing better behind do-everything Jesse Sanders. Line: Charleston Southern -3½. Pick: Liberty 72, Charleston Southern 65.

PATRIOT LEAGUE AT CAMPUS SITES

(8) Navy (3-25, 0-14) at (1) Bucknell (22-8, 12-2)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Bucknell 66-51*; Feb. 25 – Bucknell 64-55. RPI: Bucknell 83, Navy 328. Analysis: It would take the return of David Robinson for Navy to stay in this game. Line: Bucknell -21½. Pick: Bucknell 80, Navy 51.

(7) Colgate (8-21, 2-12) at (2) Lehigh (23-7, 11-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Lehigh 78-56*; Feb. 11 – Lehigh 89-69. RPI: Lehigh 109, Colgate 300. Analysis: The Hawks will roll into the title game. Line: Lehigh -21½. Pick: Lehigh 75, Colgate 53.

(5) Lafayette (12-17, 7-7) at (4) Holy Cross (15-13, 9-5)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – Lafayette 54-43*; Feb. 22 – Holy Cross 70-63*. RPI: Holy Cross 165, Lafayette 210. Analysis: The Crusaders win the rubber match with their seventh straight win. Line: Holy Cross -6½. Pick: Holy Cross 60, Lafayette 55.

(3) American (19-10, 10-4) at (6) Army (12-17, 5-9)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – American 67-55; American 74-50*. RPI: American 152, Army 300. Analysis: American has won 6 of 8 and the hot play with continue Wednesday. Line: American -13. Pick: American 73, Army 52.

ATLANTIC SUN TOURNAMENT AT MACON, GA.

(1) Belmont (24-7, 16-2) vs. (8) Jacksonville (8-21, 6-12)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 4 – Belmont 75-63*; Jan. 28 – Belmont 85-51. RPI: Belmont 61, Jacksonville 263. Analysis: Belmont’s explosive offense has led the Bruins to 11 straight wins. Make it 12. Line: Belmont -16. Pick: Belmont 90, Jacksonville 64.

(2) Mercer (21-10, 13-5) vs. (7) Lipscomb (13-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Mercer 79-72*; Feb. 23 – Mercer 63-54. RPI: Mercer 125, Lipscomb 219. Analysis: Mercer has had a nice season, but the Bears aren’t playing well late in the season. Line: Mercer -10. Pick: Mercer 68, Lipscomb 62.

*Road win

Poll: Who Will Win the Patriot League?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:27:55 -0700

Patriot League Tournament: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:09:29 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Patriot League Championship

The Patriot League Tournament features all league teams, with all games being hosted at the higher seed.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	American	99.07%	97.22%	86.03%
2	Holy Cross	93.81%	80.21%	12.37%
3	Navy	85.31%	17.26%	1.28%
4	Army	66.79%	1.75%	0.16%
5	Lehigh	33.21%	0.83%	0.08%
6	Colgate	14.69%	1.39%	0.04%
7	Bucknell	6.19%	1.14%	0.03%
8	Lafayette	0.93%	0.19%	0.01%

Between their domination of the league and the home court advantage, American is the single most dominant favorite in any conference tournament of the season. Holy Cross seem to have the only serious chance of stopping the Eagles’ run.

#1 – American Eagles (21-7, 13-1) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.219

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

After earning its first NCAA Tournament berth last season, American doesn’t seem like it’ll take long to get its second, having lost just once since late December, and entering the tournament on a 10-game winning streak. It might be easier to list what American doesn’t do better than anyone else in the league, it’s so dominant. The Eagles are excellent shooters, 47% overall and at nearly 40% from behind the arc. They take a lot of threes, and play a slow, deliberate offense that focuses on ball control. They are also the best at defending shots in the PL, allowing opponents the same percentage from two that they shoot from three themselves. The Eagles also dominate the defensive glass, so opponents have a lot of one-miss-and-out possessions.

Players to watch:

5-11 SR Garrison Carr, 17.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 50.7 eFG% - Carr leads the Eagles in scoring, and is basically the only guy who takes threes on the team, his 251 attempts about the same as the rest of the team combined. He’s made nearly 38% of them, nearly as good a percentage as his two-point attempts. He’s a typical sort of high-usage player, providing solid efficiency over a large number of possessions, and freeing up other players into smaller, more effective roles.

6-8 SR Brian Gilmore, 11.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 60.7 eFG% - Gilmore is the main option for American inside, a very good inside scorer with a great touch from outside as well. He leads the team in rebounding, but his rates on the boards aren’t particularly good. While he doesn’t often put up a big number, he chips in with effective shooting down low.

#2 – Holy Cross Crusaders (16-13, 11-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.114

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

Holy Cross had a poor non-conference season, picking up a number of bad losses (including three against the Ivy), but turned it on when Patriot play started, and were the only team to beat American. The Crusaders dominated the rest of the league as well, and have the second best offense and defense, behind only the Eagles. Holy Cross depends on getting the ball inside to score, and going 50% on two-point shots makes up for struggles with long-distance shots and free-throws. It’s a good offensive rebounding team, and distributes the ball well, but turns the ball over too often to be really efficient. Defensively, the word is possessions. The Crusaders are decent at stopping shots, but really shine at denying opponents chances with turnovers and rebounds.

Players to watch:

6-9 SO Andrew Keister, 9.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 59.6 eFG% - Keister may not be the Crusaders’ first option, but he’s the most efficient offensive player by a wide margin. That tends to happen when you lead the team in rebounding and shoot a better percentage from the field (60%) than from the stripe (56%).

6-4 SR Colin Cunningham, 8.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47.1 eFG% - If Cunningham were a half-decent three point shooter, he’d be an excellent player. However, his 29% mark from beyond the arc really drags him down. Beyond that, he’s a good ball distribution guard who leads the league in steals.

#3 – Navy Midshipmen (19-10, 8-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.030

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1998 (1^st Round)

Navy first came to my attention when it shot 71% from the field in beating Texas San Antonio, but it couldn’t keep that level of play when conference play came around, and ended up hanging just above .500 the whole season. The Midshipmen are a step down from the two leading teams on the offensive end, but are still clearly better than the teams below them. They play a fairly quick style that depends on avoiding turnovers, where they are best in the conference, and making long-distance shots, where they are only average. Navy is a pretty good team at defending the perimeter, but get beaten out inside, and are only an average league defense.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Kaleo Kina, 17.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 44.4 eFG% - Kina leads the Midshipmen in scoring, rebounds, assists and steals, and when his shooting touch is on, he’s as dangerous a scorer as there is in the league. The problem comes when his shots aren’t falling, as he is capable of some frightening lines, especially from three, where he shoots just 25%.

6-2 JR Chris Harris, 15.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.3 eFG% - Harris is the team’s second leading scorer, and takes the majority of his shots from behind the arc, where he makes a better percentage than he shoots inside.

#4 – Army Black Knights (10-18, 6-8) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.052

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Army has had one of the nation’s worst offenses, and the worst in the Patriot League, so its 6-8 final record is a testament to its ability to defend. The Black Knights are decent shooters, 41 % overall, but struggle inside, and lose so many possessions with poor rebounding and turnovers that that their shooting doesn’t really matter. Army defends shots well, and forces a lot of turnovers, good enough for the Patriot’s third-best defense, but not good enough to keep up with the conference leaders.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR Cleveland Richard, 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.9 eFG% - Richard is the Black Knights’ main threat from behind the arc, and the team’s leading scorer. The team is quite deep, using a lot of players, but Richards’ shooting ability clearly sets him apart.

5-11 JR Josh Miller, 9.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 45.5 eFG% - The team’s best ball distribution guard, Miller doesn’t score much, and his two point shooting is a weakness at just 43%.

#5 – Lehigh Mountain Hawks (15-13, 5-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.057

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (Play-In)

There’s not much separating the teams in slots 4-7, and the Mountain Hawks’ trip to Army to open the tournament should be a good one, if the triple overtime game the two played in the regular season is any indication. Lehigh’s in-conference inconsistency can be blamed, for a large part, on their shooting, which is among the worst in the nation, and easily the worst in the PL. It especially struggles from two, where it takes the majority of its shots, and even good rebounding and interior defense weren’t enough to get it to the .500 mark.

Players to watch:

5-11 JR Marquis Hall, 14.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 44.7 eFG% - Hall is the first part of Lehigh’s inside-outside duo, and is a good guard in every area but his shot. He’s a decent rebounder, and has a very good assist rate, but his shooting inside the arc is quite weak, and is the major failing in his game.

6-7 JR Zahir Carrington, 14.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 44.2 eFG% - The conference’s leading rebounder, Carrington’s 44% from the floor is pretty disappointing, and really reduces his effectiveness as an offensive option. He does get a good number of points at the free throw line, where he makes fairly frequent appearances.

#6 – Colgate Red Raiders (9-19, 5-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.060

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Colgate sat at 5-5 with two-and-a-half weeks left in the season, but a disastrous end to the season that included a tough series of road games saw them slump into the bottom portion of the conference. The Red Raiders are an average offensive team, though their slow pace makes them seem less potent then they are. They sit fifth in FG% and turnovers, so the middle-of-the pack overall efficiency fits with a balanced, mediocre unit. Defensively, they manage to hold opponents to a reasonable percentage, but have trouble stopping opponents from getting a possession advantage, with their rebounding a major culprit.

Players to watch:

6-6 JR Ben Jonson, 10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 49.7 eFG% - The junior forward is Colgate’s best option inside, and has really upped his level of play while taking on a larger role. He’s a solid rebounder, and is a good scorer from the floor who puts up a lot of points at the free throw line.

6-1 SO Mike Venezia, 10.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 44.5 eFG% - Venezia leads the Red Raiders in scoring, but his shot needs a lot of work, especially with his 41% inside. Considering that he doesn’t contribute many steals or assists, he’s a very inefficient player when his shots aren’t falling, which is fairly often.

#7 – Bucknell Bison (7-22, 4-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.055

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (2^nd Round)

Just three years removed from the second of their pair of memorable NCAA runs, the Bison have shown just how fleeting success can be, slipping to a spot just above the Patriot League cellar. The Bison are good shooters, and don’t turn the ball over much, but are woefully outclassed inside, putting up one of the nation’s worst two-point percentages. Likewise, they defend the three well, but allow opponents to score with relative ease inside. A couple of things don’t quite fit with this profile; Bucknell forces very few turnovers, but is excellent at defensive rebounding, despite playing at a fairly high pace.

Players to watch:

6-8 JR Patrick Behan, 13.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 45.8 eFG% - Behan fits with what we’ve seen from several Patriot League forwards, a good rebounder who takes a lot of his team’s shots, but doesn’t shoot a particularly good percentage.

6-1 SR Justin Castleberry, 11.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 44.5 eFG% - Castleberry has a good scoring average, but not much else; he put up a good steal rate, and he’s a decent three-point shooter, but his sub-40% shooting from two means he’s a pretty inefficient player.

#8 – Lafayette Leopards (8-21, 4-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.117

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2000 (1^st Round)

When I’ve been describing some of the teams above as relatively poor defensively, this has been within the context of the Patriot League, where the average team has scored well below a point-per-possession. Lafayette is the only team that allows more than that, and have been easily the worst team in the conference. The Leopards’ opponents shoot 47% from the field, and manage to score inside and outside with equal impunity. Lafayette also commits a lot of fouls, giving opponents even more high-percentage chances. Offensively, Lafayette are about average in the conference, a three-heavy offense that doesn’t shoot a great long distance percentage, but is effective inside and at the line.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Jeff Kari, 10.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 48.2 eFG% - Kari is 2^nd on the team in scoring, but he’s not a particularly effective guard, having an even assist/turnover ratio and a below average shot inside and outside.

5-11 SR Andrew Brown, 13.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 43.6 eFG% - Lafayette’s leading scorer and assist man, Brown is another player who’s struggled to make shots, below 30% from three and under 35% overall.

My statistical all-Patriot League team:

American SR G Garrison Carr, 17.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 50.7 eFG%

Navy SR G Kaleo Kina, 17.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 44.4 eFG

Navy JR G Chris Harris, 15.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.3 eFG%

Army JR G Cleveland Richard, 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.9 eFG%

American SR F Brian Gilmore, 11.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 60.7 eFG%

Patroit League Tournament: Quarterfinals Preview

Press Release — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 07:28:21 -0800

Center Valley, Pa. - The quest for the 2009 Patriot League Men's Basketball Championship begins with the quarterfinal round on Wednesday, with defending champion American playing as the No. 1 seed and hosting No. 8 Lafayette. No. 2 Holy Cross hosts No. 7 Bucknell, No. 3 Navy takes on No. 6 Colgate and No. 4 Army hosts No. 5 Lehigh in the other three contests.

Patriot League Quarterfinal Preview

It's win or go home time in Patriot League men's basketball, as the League Tournament tips off with the quarterfinal round on Wednesday. The evening's action begins at 7 p.m. with No. 7 seed Bucknell at No. 2 Holy Cross, No. 6 Colgate at No. 3 Navy and No. 5 Lehigh at No. 4 Army. The No. 1 seeded American Eagles begin defense of their League title at 7:30 p.m. at Bender Arena against No. 8 Lafayette. The winner of the Lehigh/Army game plays the winner of Lafayette/American in the semifinals on Sunday, with the winners on the other side of the bracket also facing off that day. All Patriot League Tournament games are played at the site of the higher seed, with the Championship on March 13

The Eagles won the Patriot League with a 13-1 mark in the regular season, claiming the top seed in the Tournament for the second year in a row. They are led by senior guards Derrick Mercer and Garrison Carr. Mercer was named Patriot League Player of the Year on Monday, while Carr earned his second consecutive First-Team All-League award. The Eagles are tied for third in the nation with a 10-game winning streak, and have victories in 16 of their last 17 games. Lafayette is led by senior guard Andrew Brown, who averages 13.6 points per game.

The Mountain Hawks and Black Knights play in the quarterfinals for the third year in a row. Lehigh is led by First-Team All-League selection Marquis Hall and Second-Team All-League choice Zahir Carrington. Army places 34th in the country in scoring defense, and has Patriot League Defensive Player of the year Marcus Nelson and Second-Team All-League pick Cleveland Richard on its side.

Bucknell and Holy Cross are meeting in the Patriot Leaguue Tournament for a record 12th time, with the Bison holding a 6-5 edge thus far. Bucknell is led by Second-Team All-League choice Patrick Behan, who has five consecutive 20-point games. Holy Cross boasts First-Team All-League pick Andrew Keister and Patriot League Rookie of the Year R.J. Evans for a team that went 11-3 in Patriot League action.

Colgate and Navy face off in Annapolis after just playing on Saturday in a game won by the Mids. The Raiders have lost five consecutive games coming into action, but do have three players scoring around 10 points per contest. Navy boasts First-Team All-Patriot League choice Kaleo Kina and Second-Team All-League pick Chris Harris, who each finished in the top three in overall and League only scoring in 2008-09.

Patriot League Notebook

American Enters Exclusive Company in League Annals

By clinching the No. 1 seed in the Patriot League Tournament, American become the first team since Lafayette in 1998-00 to earn the top seed in consecutive seasons. The Leopards are the only program to earn three straight No. 1 seeds, with Colgate (1995-96)?and Fordham (1990-91) the others to do it in consecutive years. American is also the first team in League annals to earn sole possession of the regular-season title for two straight seasons. The Eagles will play as the No. 1 seed in the Tournament for the third time in eight years as a League member, with the other instance in 2002. American has captured a top four seed in each of its League seasons.

No. 1 Usually Ends Up No. 1

If history rings true, American has to like its chances as the No. 1 seed with home court throughout the Patriot League Tournament. The top seed has won 14 of the 18 League Tournaments, and has advanced to the title game every season. American continued that trend by winning the Championship as the No. 1 seed last year.

Repeat Is No Unusual Feat

Also in the Eagles' favor is the history of repeat champions in the Patriot League. There have already been six repeat champions in League annals, with just four champions earning only a single crown. Lehigh is the only Patriot League program to win one title but never repeat as a champion, a distinction the Eagles will try to avoid joining this season.

-- From PatriotLeague.org

Daily Conference Poll: Who Will Win the Patriot League?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 08:40:36 -0800

Patriot League Basketball Preview: 08-09

CHN — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 07:27:37 -0800

Conference Rank: 20th

10 year average: 23rd

Patriot League Conference Page

All-Patriot Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Garrison Carr	American	Sr
G	Derrick Mercer	American	Sr
G	Marquis Hall	Lehigh	Jr
F	Kyle Roemer	Colgate	Sr
F	Alex Vander Baan	Holy Cross	Sr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Garrison Carr		Points: Garrison Carr 18.1 Rebounds: Alex Vander Baan (HC) 5.7 Assists: Marquis Hall 4.4

Patriot League Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

86	American**	Patriot	1	NCAA
170	Lehigh	Patriot	2
206	Holy Cross	Patriot	3
237	Colgate	Patriot	4
249	Bucknell	Patriot	5
253	Navy	Patriot	6
270	Army	Patriot	7
288	Lafayette	Patriot	8

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Patriot? (soon)

Other Patriot Content

Conference Media/Coaches Poll

Other

Rise & Fall: Patriot

State of '08: New York

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 08:11:24 -0700

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Duke or Carolina? BC or UMASS? Gonzaga or Washington.. or Washington State? What is the best program in each state? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a ranking of every program in every state.. based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

NEW YORK

SYRACUSE - Led by one of the all-time great coaches, Syracuse has been a perennial power under Jim Boeheim. The Orange have missed the last two NCAA Tournaments, but should be back in 2009.

SIENA - Its been a good decade for Siena, with 3 NCAA Tournaments and 2 NIT trips. Last year, the Saints knocked off Vanderbilt in the opening round, and some pundits even think Fran McCaffery's crew has a chance to finish in the Top 25..

NIAGARA - With the exception of a poor 2006 campaign, Niagara has been very solid in the last decade. They've finished over .500 overall and in MAAC play in 9 of 10 seasons, and advanced to the Tournament in 2005 & 2007.

HOFSTRA - After the amazing job Jay Wright did at Hofstra around the turn of the century, Tom Pecora's tenure has been a bit more pedestrian (but still good for NY standards). The Pride did ride the shooting stroke of Loren Stokes to the 2007 NIT (their 3rd in a row), but were disappointing last year despite the return of Antoine Agudio.

MANHATTAN - Bobby Gonzalez led Manhattan to four postseason trips between 2002 and 2006. Barry Rohrssen hasn't been able to maintain that high standard, though this year's team has potential.

6. ST. JOHN'S - Once one of the game's top programs, St. John's still isn't close to getting out of the mess created by Mike Jarvis. The Storm haven't finished in the RPI Top 100 since 2003, and that futility should continue in 2009.

7. MARIST - Although the Red Foxes haven't had much success in the MAAC tournament the past three seasons, the team has been consistently dangerous and was invited to the 2007 NIT.

8. ALBANY - Unlike Binghamton and Stony Brook, who joined D1 and the AE around the same time, Albany has had some success in recent years. Will Brown, the Great Danes coach for pretty much their entire D1 existence, deserves credit for the job he's done. Brown led the team to the 2006 & 2007 NCAA Tournaments.

9. CORNELL - The Big Red have come a long way under Steve Donahue. When he took over in 2001, the program was one of the worst in the Ivy League. But their RPI has improved every season since 01 (from 311th to 65th in 08), and their Ivy League record has improved each season as well (though you can't top last year's perfect 14-0 run). Most expect Cornell to repeat as Ivy champs in 2009.

10. FORDHAM - Although Dereck Whittenburg has done a nice job getting Fordham back on track since taking over in 2003, there's still been no postseason trips and last year's team failed to meet lofty expectations.

11. WAGNER - With 23 wins last year, the Seahawks set a new record, although they missed out on the postseason. The program had accomplished little in the previous four seasons, unable to follow up on a good 02-03 run that culminated in a Tourney bid.

12. IONA - The Gaels have been all over the place in recent seasons. Great in 2006, with 23 wins and an NCAA bid. Horrendous in 2007 with just a 2-28 record. And then very mediocre last year.

13. BUFFALO - Long one of the country's worst programs, Buffalo is back to their losing ways after a rare winning spike from 2004 to 2006. In 2005, the Bulls were a few points from making their first NCAA Tournament in program history.

14. COLGATE - The Raiders are coming off their best season since 2002, an 18-win campaign that included two wins in the Patriot League tournament. 1996 was the last time they reached the conference finals.

15. BINGHAMTON - Less than a decade into their D1 existence, Bingamton is still looking for a breakthrough on the hardwood. 2nd year coach Kevin Broadus will be relying on a lot of transfers to push the Bearcats up the America East standings.

16. CANISIUS - 2001 was the last time Canisius was any good. 2009 should be another losing season, though fans are at least hopeful some of last year's young talent improves.

17. LIU - There hasn't been much to cheer about in the last decade as last year's 15 wins were the best in a decade. Since taking over in 2002, Jim Ferry's teams have won just one NEC Tournament game.

18. ST. FRANCIS - 2004 was the last time the Terriers were decent, and 2001 was the last time they were good. Last year was one of the worst in the program's history, with an RPI of 313 and a 4-14 NEC record.

19. ST. BONAVENTURE - Early in the decade, the Bonnies had a good run, until a string of poor choices, rules violations, and bad luck destroyed the program. Some progress has been made since the low of 2005 (2 wins), but Mark Schmidt and crew still have a long way to go.

20. COLUMBIA - I'm sure Columbia's good teams at some point in the past, but they were just before my time. Back to back 7-7 Ivy League seasons have been the peak of Joe Jones' five year tenure.

21. STONY BROOK - The Seawolves haven't won 10 games since 2005, and have never finished above 200th in the RPI. Most publications project a finish near the bottom of the AE in 2009.

22. ARMY - From 2003 to 2006, Army was not only the worst team in New York, but arguably the worst team in the country. They won just 11 D1 games in those four seasons, but have since returned to a more mediocre standard. Another sub-.500 season is a lock in 08-09.

Last: New Jersey - Next: North Carolina

State of '08: The Introduction (& State list/links)