Colorado

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 46 to 60

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 08:05:33 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 46 to 60.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 45-60

46 Miami Another year under Jim Larranaga should find the Hurricanes on the inside of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Malcolm Grant departs but he did not have a terribly good season anyways.

47 Butler After a down year, Butler should once again be the class of the Horizon League. Transfer Rotnei Clarke gives them a scoring-punch that was severely lacking this year. Three solid guards enter as freshmen, who should help with depth.

48 Colorado Carlon Brown and Austin Dufault are not small loses, but the hope is that Andre Roberson blossoms into a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate. The Buffs recruiting haul is easily their best of the last decade.

49 BYU The Cougars lose veterans Hartsock and Abouo but should still settle into their usual bubble-bound slot. Another year of improvement from Matt Carlino should help.

50 Pittsburgh Coming off of a disastrous season, Pittsburgh has no where to go but up. Although Gibbs and Robinson depart, the Panthers welcome 4th ranked recruit Steven Adams, one of their best-ever recruits. A healthy Tray Woodall would certainly help as well.

51 UCF After being a fringe-bubble team that last two years, UCF will once again be hoping to make the tourney. Although PG AJ Rompza graduates, the team returns solid All-CUSA caliber players in Keith Clanton, Marcus Jordan, and Isaiah Sykes.

52 Temple The Owls should take a step back with key senior losses, including leader Ramone Moore, but expect them to still be competitive in the A10. Khalif Wyatt could score 20 ppg now that the team is fully in his hands. The recruiting haul might be Temple's best since 2007.

53 Xavier Besides leader Tu Holloway, they also loses Kenny Frease and Andre Walker. Role players like Travis Taylor and Jeff Robinson will really need to step it up if Xavier wants to makes its 8th tourney in a row. 4-star recruit Semaj Christon is capable of contributing at PG from day one.

54 UCONN Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond will presumably go pro, and the roster looks pretty thin without them. Last year's shock tourney run covers up what has been 3 years in a row of .500 or worse basketball in Big East play. Add in the potential sanctions and Calhoun's health, and you have yourself a lot of questions.

55 Belmont Seniors Drew Hanlen, Mick Hedgepeth, and Scott Saunders depart, but Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark are still two of the A-Sun's top players. Incoming PG Craig Bradshaw is one of Belmont's better pickups and should fit right into the program.

56 South Florida Three seniors that played over 25 minutes per game depart, but South Florida shouldn't expect too much of a drop-off. USF's 4-person recruiting class is solid for their standards, but still mediocre as far as the Big East goes.

57 Mississippi St With Dee Bost a senior and Arnett Moultrie presumably going pro, Mississippi St loses its leading scorer, passer, rebounder, and defender. Although an underrated 5-person recruiting class was set to come in, Rick Stanbury's retirement does open some questions.

58 West Virginia For a team that often struggled to score the ball, it will be interesting to see how they'll manage without Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant. Those two scored almost 50% of the Mountaineers points. Aaric Murray and Juwan Staten are solid transfers who will help.

59 Southern Miss USM was never as good as their gaudy RPI suggested.. Graduations will put a major dent into their major strength, which was depth, but their top two scorers do return.

60 Iowa St The key for Iowa St is whether Royce White decides to go pro. I'm assuming here that he does, which would mean the Cyclones lose their 3 leading scorers. A pair of solid transfers enter the mix, as well as their best recruiting class in a few years.

Also Under Consideration (alphabetical order)

Akron

California

Harvard

Illinois St

Minnesota

Nevada

Ole Miss

Oregon

Providence

Vanderbilt

Virginia

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 45

Baylor vs Colorado: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 13:45:02 -0700

(3) Baylor vs. (11) Colorado: South Region

Records

Baylor 28-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Colorado 24-11, 11-7 Pac-12 (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 8:40 p.m. Saturday

TV: TNT

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque

First round results

Baylor def. South Dakota State 68-60

Colorado def. UNLV 68-64

Winner will face: (2) Duke, (7) Notre Dame, (10) Xavier or (15) Lehigh, Friday at Atlanta

Rankings

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Baylor 9

Colorado 65

Line: -7½ (O/U 133)

Players to Watch

Baylor: F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.7 spg); F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (14 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 50.3% FG). With Perry Jones and Quincy Acy struggling, Jackson came up big in Baylor’s first-round win over South Dakota State. The junior college transfer scored 18 points on 6-of-11 from the field, along with two assists and two steals.

Colorado: F Andre Roberson, 6-7 So. (11.6 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 1.9 bpg); G Carlon Brown, 6-5 Sr. (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.9 apg); F Austin Dufault, 6-9 Sr. (10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 48.6% FG). Roberson is a nice offensive option, a strong defensive player and a rebounding machine. He had 12 points and 16 rebounds to help Colorado advance over SDSU on Thursday.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Baylor: Baylor is long, lean and athletic. The Bears are a nightmare matchup for just about anybody. The Bears are a good offensive team. They are shooting 47 percent from the floor and 38.1 percent from the 3-point line in scoring 74.7 points per game. They make seven 3s a game, and their offensive efficiency ranks 23^rd in the nation. The Bears rebound well. They get 12.2 offensive rebounds per game and out-board teams by 5.2 per game. With Jackson at the point, Baylor has a solid 1.07-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Colorado: The Buffaloes came ready to play and pounced on UNLV early Thursday. Colorado made 7-of-12 3s and held the Rebels to 23-of-71 from the field. Colorado’s defense is the reason it is in this tournament. In four Pac-12 tourney games, the Buffaloes held teams to 38.8 percent from the floor, including holding Arizona to 18-of-49 in the Pac-12 title game. Colorado forces 12.4 turnovers per game. They’re also strong on the boards, out-rebounding opponents by 3.4 per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Baylor: The Bears aren’t nearly aggressive enough. They have a size advantage on nearly every team in the country, yet they seem to prefer taking jump shots. Shot selection has been a serious issue all season. The Bears shot just 23-for-52 and attempted 20 3-point shots against an average Jackrabbit defense. They turn the ball over nearly 14 times per game, which could be an issue against a strong defensive Colorado team. They have turned the ball over at least nine times in 11 straight games and had 11 or more in nine of those 11 games.

Colorado: The Buffs really struggle on offense at times. Their offensive efficiency ranks 167^th in the nation and they turn the ball over more than 13 times and give up 6.2 steals per contest. They have negative assist-to-turnover ratio and turnover margin. Those aren’t good signs against an athletic Bear squad.

The Bottom Line: I think Baylor will probably win, but I don’t even trust them to do that after Thursday’s performance. So I’ll take the points. But my advice is avoid a team as inconsistent as the Bears, especially against a good defensive team.

The Pick: Baylor 67, Colorado 61

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

Thursday's Action Underwhelms But Colorado & VCU Win

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 23:24:37 -0700

The first full day of action in the NCAA tournament didn't produce the number of surprises that many fans both expected and wanted, with just two lower-seeded teams advancing to Saturday's action. While one should come as no surprise to the country the other finds itself carrying the banner for an entire conference...in its first season in the league. Here are the key happenings by location, highlighted by wins for Colorado (Albuquerque) and VCU (Portland).

Albuquerque: Colorado builds a large lead and holds on to beat 6-seed UNLV, winning thier sixth straight game.
Tad Boyle's Buffaloes put together a performance similar to their win over Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament final on Saturday. Colorado got out to a big lead and controlled play for much of the game, ultimately running out of gas down the stretch but finding a way to hold on. Austin Dufault scored 14 points and Andre Roberson added 12 and 16 rebounds to lead Colorado to the 68-64 win, giving the Buffaloes their first NCAA tournament win since 1997. UNLV shot just 32.4% from the field but was able to close the margin to two points due to their pressure, which forced 23 Colorado turnovers on the night.

But Chace Stanback and Mike Moser combined to shoot 7-of-27 from the field, and the Runnin' Rebels could get no closer. Next up for Colorado is old Big 12 foe Baylor, who held off a tough South Dakota State team by the final score of 68-60. Few expected the Buffs to compete for a spot in the top half of the Pac-12 when the season began, but here they are carrying the banner for a struggling conference with 40 minutes between them and the Sweet 16.

Louisville: Iowa State drops the hammer on UConn early, advancing to face top seed Kentucky on Saturday.
The immediate reaction of many on Selection Sunday was excitement in regards to a possible matchup between the defending national champs and top over all seed Kentucky on Saturday. There were so many speaking as if a UConn/Kentucky match-up was a lock that two important factors were ignored. One, the Huskies really hadn't played well despite picking up two wins in New York City. Two, and most importantly, was the fact that UConn had to deal with a good Iowa State team to reach Saturday.

And they couldn't. Royce White was solid with 15 points and 13 rebounds, setting the tone of a game UConn didn't look too prepared to play with a dunk on the opening possession. Iowa State led by as many as 20 in the first half, and whenever the Huskies looked to be making a run they'd make a bad decision. Iowa State advanced with the 77-64 win, and one has to wonder about the direction of the Connecticut program. There's a strong chance that the Huskies won't be eligible for next year's tournament, and if the ban is upheld following the school's final appeal in April that may trigger a mass exodus for their best players. Troubling times in Storrs, that's for sure.

Pittsburgh: Syracuse rallies late to beat UNC Asheville in a game that left many upset with the officiating.
The battle between the Orange and Bulldogs was a wild one, and even with Syracuse not having Fab Melo the game was much closer than anyone anticipated. Eddie Biedenbach's team hung around throughout despite Matt Dickey shooting 1-of-13 from the field, but they couldn't get that one play they needed down the stretch to complete what would have been the first-ever win for a 16-seed over a one. Syracuse hung on for the 72-65 win, advancing to take on 8-seed Kansas State for the right to go to the Sweet 16.

James Southerland came up big off the bench, just as he did in the Big East Championship win over UConn in the quarters, scoring 15 points and grabbing eight boards. Outside of Dickey the Bulldogs had other issues, most notably a few whistles that did not go their way late. But to be fair the game was horrendously officiated throughout out, with both teams ending up on the short end of the stick. Did UNC Asheville outplay Syracuse? For much of the afternoon they did, but the final score is what ultimately determines which team advances and which one sees its season end. Syracuse found a way to survive and advance, and regardless of the aesthetic beauty (or lack thereof) of the win that's all that matters in March.

Portland: VCU makes the big plays late to beat 5-seed Wichita State; gets Indiana next.
In the matchup practically no one wanted to see at this point in the tournament given the potential of both teams it was VCU who found a way to win. Bradford Burgess' three with 1:33 remaining gave the Rams the lead for good as they beat the Shockers 62-59. VCU will look to unleash their "havoc" style of play on Indiana, who beat New Mexico State in the final game of the night. Burgess scored 16 points and Darius Theus and Troy Daniels added ten apiece. VCU did its best work on the defensive end as they were able to harass Wichita State into shooting just 38.7% from the field.

Garrett Stutz, whose three just before time expired went long, struggled to deal with the pace within each possession and VCU's D.J. Haley defended the First Team All-MVC player well throughout. Neither team shot well from three but it was VCU's superior percentage inside of the arc that proved to be the difference. It's unfair to attempt to compare this year's group to last year's, but rest assured that the current group of Rams are just as capable of doing even more damage in the tournament.

Three Notable Performers

1. F Jae Crowder (Marquette)
25 points, 16 rebounds and four assists in the Golden Eagles' 88-68 win over BYU.

2. F Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State)
31 points and 12 rebounds in the Buckeyes' 78-59 win over Loyola (MD).

3. G Rodney McGruder (Kansas State)
30 points (11-16 FG) four rebounds and four steals in the Wildcats' 70-64 win over Southern Miss.

UNLV vs Colorado: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 00:02:49 -0700

(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado: South Region

Records

UNLV 26-8, 9-5 MWC (At large)

Colorado 23-11, 11-7 Pac-12 (Pac-12 Conference Tourney Champions)

Time: 9:57 p.m. Thursday

TV: TruTV

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

Winner will face: (3) Baylor or (14) South Dakota State, Saturday

Rankings: UNLV (No. 23 AP; No. 25 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

UNLV 19

Colorado 62

Line: UNLV -4½ (O/U 134)

Players to Watch

UNLV: F Mike Moser, 6-8 So. (14.1 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.3 apg); G Anthony Marshall, 6-3 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.6 apg); G Oscar Bellfield, 6-2 Sr. (9.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 1.1 spg). Bellfield became the Mountain West Conference’s all-time leader in assists during the MWC Tournament. He has 574 for his career.

Colorado: F Andre Roberson, 6-7 So. (11.6 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 50.9% FG); G Carlon Brown, 6-5 Sr. (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.9 apg); F Austin Dufault, 6-9 Sr. (10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 48.6% FG). Brown struggled down the stretch run of the regular season, but he came on with 63 points, 19 rebounds and nine steals during Colorado’s 4-game Pac-12 Tournament championship run.

Why Each Team is Dangerous

UNLV: The Runnin’ Rebels are at their best when they’re running. Bellfield and Marshall have both proven they can run the break, and Moser and Chace Stanback both run the floor deftly. UNLV shoots 46.2 percent from the field, and led by Stanback, who led the MWC in 3-point shooting, the Rebels shot 37 percent from deep. The UNLV defense has held opponents to 40.9 percent from the floor and created 15.2 turnovers per game. Their 8.4 steals per contest is 18^th in the country.

Colorado: The Buffaloes won four games in four days to capture the Pac-12 Tournament title and the league’s automatic bid. Brown and Roberson are a nice, talented 1-2 punch. Colorado won the title with strong defense, including 33 steals in the 4-game stretch. The Buffs held their four tournament opponent to 35.9 percent from the field and just 18-of-73 from the 3-point line.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

UNLV: Despite Moser and Stanback on the glass, the Rebels allowed over 11 offensive rebounds per game. They only out-rebounded their opponents by 1.5 boards per contest in conference play. In their last outing, they were out-rebounded 38-24 by New Mexico in the Mountain West semis. After a fast start, UNLV lost five of its last 10 games and seems a bit hobbled heading into the NCAA.

Colorado: The 2012 Buffs are less talented than last year’s group that failed to make the tournament. Colorado lost 75 percent of its scoring last year, which says a lot about this year’s team, but it also means they’re not deep with talent and experience. UNLV has been successful at pushing pace this year. In order for the Buffaloes to have a chance, they’ll have to keep the pace as slow as possible.

The Bottom Line: I don’t like the way the Rebels are playing, but they are so much more talented than Colorado (sans Brown and Roberson). I’m taking the Rebels to win, but one win will be the end of the road for either winner.

The Pick: UNLV 68, Colorado 65

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Colorado guard Carlon Brown

Jon Teitel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 19:44:14 -0700

Recently CHN writer Jon Teitel was able to catch up with Colorado guard Carlon Brown, who helped lead the Buffaloes to the Pac-12 tournament title last weekend and was named tournament MVP. Next up for the Buffaloes is a matchup with six-seed UNLV in a South Region matchup.

But before you read you probably should watch this.

Jon Teitel: You played three years at Utah before transferring to Colorado. Why did you transfer, and what do you remember about UNLV from your old days in the Mountain West?

Carlon Brown: I felt that transferring was the best decision for my career due to the direction that the program in Utah was going. UNLV has a new coaching staff this year, but their core unit is still there so they are very dangerous.

JT: Alec Burks missed a shot at the buzzer in a one-point loss to Alabama in the 2011 NIT semifinals. How devastating was that loss, and what did you learn from it that will help you in this postseason?

CB: I did not get to experience that trip, but regardless of what tournament you are in you have to play to the best. That is the downside of March. You can get blown out if you do not play your game.

JT: Your team was picked to finish 10th in the Pac-12 preseason media poll. What were your own expectations going into the start of this season?

CB: We did not put any expectations on ourselves but every team wants to win a conference title. We obviously used it as motivation.

JT: In 18 conference games you were 8-1 at home and 3-6 on the road. Are you concerned that your team has not played great away from home this year?

CB: No. We showed this past week that it is simply about how bad you want to win the game. We had the mindset that we would not be denied.

JT: You lost to a pair of tourney teams back in November (Wichita State and Colorado State), but beat Cal by double-digits twice in the past two weeks. Do you feel like you are playing your best basketball of the season right now?

CB: The way we have played the last four games speaks for itself. We are looking to keep moving forward.

JT: Your first round Pac-12 tournament win over Utah gave Colorado back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time in school history. What has the reaction been like from the fans as you have started to build a winning tradition?

CB: The fans love it. Some were even joking that we are a basketball school now! It was an amazing accomplishment and showed how far we have come as a team.

JT: You scored 13 points en route to being named conference tournament MVP in a two-point win over Arizona in the title game. How was your team able to hang on for the win, and where does your huge dunk in the final minute rank among the best of your career?

CB: We just believed in ourselves and what got us there in the first place: defense. Our goal is to hold teams under 41 FG%, and we were able to do that against Arizona. We took some bad shots but never wavered in our confidence. I have not had time to sit back and admire all my dunks, but it was good to help my team out in crunch time.

JT: Coach Tad Boyle won a school-record 24 games in his first year last season, and got the school in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2003 this season. What makes him such a good coach, and what is the most important thing you ever learned from him?

CB: He has a good balance on and off the court. He knows when we need a break and when we need to practice harder. He has been a great coach for me, and I wish that I could have played for him for all four of my years.

JT: You will be playing in Albuquerque, which is less than 500 miles from Boulder. Do you anticipate a lot of fans making the trip to cheer for you in person?

CB: Definitely. It is only about a seven-hour drive so we hope a lot of fans and alums can be there.

JT: How do you feel about your seed, and how do you think you matchup against UNLV?

CB: We were not expecting that high of a seed, somewhere between 8 and 12. We are thankful for the opportunity. The Rebels are also a good team, so it should be a good game.

Bracketology: Sunday Morning Update

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:21:32 -0800

3:00 AM Sunday: This is the 2nd to last Bracketology projection of the season, with the last coming sometime before the Selection Show. Since Saturday evening's update, a few teams locked up conference titles, but the overall field looks quite similar. Titles went to Louisville (Big East), Missouri (Big 12), Long Beach St (Big West), Ohio (MAC), New Mexico (MWC), Mississippi Valley St (SWAC), and New Mexico St (WAC).

MVSU is headed for a First Four game, Ohio seems destined for a 14 seed, and New Mexico St will most likely be a 13. I currently have Long Beach as the first 12 seed, but an 11 is not out of the question. Missouri remains the #1 two seed for now, while Louisville stays a 5 despite the win. Its possible they move up to a 4 in final projection, replacing Wichita St. New Mexico moved into a 6 in this late night projection, replacing foe San Diego St. Those two along with UNLV form an odd threesome in the 6-7 range that I'm struggling to sort properly. The committee could conceivably place any of these teams in the 6 through 8 range.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs. Conference Champion.

ONE

TWO

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

SIX

Temple

SEVEN

San Diego St

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

ELEVEN

Xavier**

TWELVE

THIRTEEN + 2

Tennessee / Northwestern

Belmont

Davidson

FOURTEEN

New Mexico St

South Dakota St

FIFTEEN

SIXTEEN + 2

Lamar

Vermont / Mississippi Valley St

Norfolk St / Western Kentucky

Last In: Northwestern, Tennessee, NC State, Seton Hall

First Out: Mississippi St, South Florida, Drexel, Iona

Further Four: Miami, Washington, Ole Miss, Dayton

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): xx

New (at-large): xx

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

America East - Vermont
A-10 - Xavier
ACC - North Carolina
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - New Mexico
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Colorado
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico St
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0800

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.

Bracketology: Remaining Teams That Can Steal Bids

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 19:55:54 -0800

While bubble teams were able to breathe easier when Murray St and Creighton won close conference titles, the coast is not entirely clear.

Here's a brief look at the remaining teams most likely to "steal" bids from the bubble hopefuls**.

ACC

With UNC and Duke lurking, its hard to imagine a spoiler coming from the ACC, but you never know..

Clemson (16-14, 8-8, RPI #138)

The ACC might be down this year, but .500 in that league still counts for something. The Tigers would need to beat VT in the opening round and then steal one from Duke. Clemson only lost to Duke by 7 at Cameron.

Maryland (16-14, 6-10, RPI #110)

The Terps have an easy opening game against Wake Forest, and they'd they have to beat UNC in the quarterfinals.

Atlantic 10
While Temple and St Louis are locks, there is a ton of parity in the A10. All of these teams deserve more respect than they get nationally and are extremely dangerous in the A10 tournament.

Dayton (20-11, 9-7, #73)

Dayton cruised past GW in the opening round and now faces Xavier. While Xavier is more likely to get an at-large bid, both teams have similar resumes. The loser of that game will be eliminated from at-large contention.

La Salle (210-11, 9-7, #79)

La Salle beat a tough Richmond squad in the opening round and now faces Saint Louis. La Salle struggled against the Billikens earlier in the year, but does have a geographical advantage playing in Atlantic City.

St Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6, #95)

A dangerous squad, St Bonaventure faces bubble team Saint Joseph's Wednesday afternoon. The Bonnies have already beaten Saint Joe's and with Andrew Nicholson leading the way, no one wants to face them.

UMASS (21-10, 9-7, #87)

UMASS topped Duquesne Tuesday night, which sets up an afternoon game with #1 seed Temple. UMASS took Temple to OT a few weeks, so they're far from scared.

Big East

UCONN showed that its not impossible to run through the Big East Tournament from a Tuesday start.

Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13, #98)

Perhaps there is a little bit of magic left from this preseason top 25 team that struggled mightily.

Big Ten
These 3 teams have had their moments during the season, and would need to go on epic runs to win the league.

Illinois (17-14, 6-12, #82)

As bad as Illinois has been, how many teams have beaten the likes of Michigan St, Ohio St, and Gonzaga. The Illini would need Brandon Paul to go off for 40 every game in Indy..

Iowa (16-15, 8-10, #131)

Iowa has been surprisingly competitive this year, and has beaten Wisconsin twice along with beating Michigan and Indiana. They face Illinois in round one, the winner could have great momentum going forward.

Minnesota (18-13, 6-12, #81)

Once considered a potential tourney team, Minnesota's season went south in a hurry. They face bubble team Northwestern in round one and could seriously hurt the Wildcats at-large hopes.

Conference USA

While the RPI suggests Memphis and Southern Miss are by far the class of this league, these teams certainly have to be feared. If not for the tournament being in Memphis, the odds of one of these teams stealing a bid would be even bigger.

UCF (21-9, 10-6, #64)

With an opening round by, the Knights would face the winner of UAB or Tulane in round two. UCF is a close loss or two away from being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. With the exception of one bad showing at Memphis, UCF has been competitive in every CUSA game.

Marshall (18-12, 9-7, #66)

Like UCF, Marshall is a dangerous squad that could be looking at the NCAA's with a little more luck. As it is, they have a very favorable spot in the bracket, opening against SMU and then potentially facing Tulsa in the quarterfinals.

Tulsa (17-13, 10-6, #112)

Most wouldn't have guessed that Tulsa would earn the #3 seed in the CUSA Tournament.

UTEP (14-16, 7-9, #158)

A real darkhorse as a #8 seed, UTEP has beaten Memphis and Southern Miss this year, so you never what could happen if they got hot.

MWC
The MWC is a small league, so you only have to win 3 games to earn the title.

Wyoming (20-10, 6-8, #80)

The Cowboys face UNLV in the opening round, and have already beaten the Rebels. While they've struggled away from home, they can't be written off.

TCU (17-13, 7-7, #101)

TCU can ruin Colorado St's bubble hopes in the opening round. The two split their season series, and the game should be close.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a complete mess. Cal and Washington can't be considered locks and a ton of teams could potentially win the league title.

Arizona (21-10, 12-6, #77)

Arizona awaits the winner of UCLA/USC after getting a first round bye.

Colorado (19-11, 11-7, #83)

The #6 seed opens with lowly Utah. The Buffs aren't that much worse than anyone else in the league.

Stanford (20-10, 10-8, #97)

The only team in the league to beat a Top 50 opponent in non-conference play, Stanford has been playing better after slumping a few weeks back.

UCLA (18-13, 11-7, #118)

With the tournament in Los Angeles, and a favorable bracket, you certainly can't write off the Bruins.

SEC

Outside of Kentucky, the SEC is much more even than you might think. Teams like Florida and Vanderbilt are overrated, and 2nd seed Tennessee is not that great away from home. Kentucky might lose focus, and then the league is up for grabs.

Arkansas (18-13, 6-10, #100)

If the Hogs can get by LSU, they'd face Kentucky in the quarterfinals. If they could somehow beat UK..

LSU (17-13, 7-9, #89)

The same exact situation as Arkansas.

**I'll define the bubble as including the following teams:

BYU

California

Colorado St

Drexel

Miami

NC State

Northwestern

Ole Miss

Oregon

Saint Joseph's

Seton Hall

South Florida

Tennessee

Texas

UCONN

Washington

Xavier

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Ducks Get Hot in the Second Half: Thursday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:32:39 -0800

Florida State's Ian Miller knocked down a three-pointer with eight tenths of a second remaining to give the Seminoles a 63-60 win at Virginia, who will finish the regular season without a win over any of the top three teams in the ACC.

1. Oregon scored 54 second-half points to erase a five-point halftime deficit and beat Colorado.
The battle in Eugene between the Ducks and Buffaloes was likely more of a "bubble eliminator" contest, with the loser most likely needing to win the Pac-12 tournament in order to go dancing. Unfortunately for Colorado, who has struggled on the road all season, their play on the defensive end let them down in the second half. Oregon shot 61.5% in the second half of their 90-81 win, which also moved the Ducks closer to a first-round bye in next week's conference tournament. Devoe Joseph scored 24 points and Garrett Sim added 19 for Oregon, who shot 8-for-14 from beyond the arc as well. Carlon Brown snapped out of his funk to lead four Colorado players in double figures with 20 points, and despite the loss that's an important development for the Buffs. If he's playing efficiently they can win the Pac-12 tournament, which they will likely have to do in order to reach the Field of 68.

2. Nevada clinches the WAC regular season title, and there won't be many highly ranked teams who will line up to face them in the Big Dance.
Regardless of what seed line David Carter's Wolf Pack end up on, they're not going to be a fun matchup for the team that draws them should they win the WAC's automatic bid. Olek Czyz led three Nevada players in double figures with 15 points and their defending of a ball screen in the final seconds eventually forced a New Mexico State turnover to seal the 65-61 win. NMSU's final sequence looked to be doomed from the start but head coach Marvin Menzies chose to play it out despite having a timeout remaining, ultimately leading to Hernst LaRoche throwing the ball away. Wendell McKines led the Aggies with 19 points and LaRoche added 12 in what could have been a preview of next weekend's title game. With the likes of Czyz, Deonte Burton, Dario Hunt and Malik Story the Wolf Pack have talented weapons that can give teams fits, and there won't be any highly-seeded teams lining up for their shot at Nevada.

3. Quinnipiac is the lone road team to win in the NEC quarterfinals.
Of course in a conference tournament in which the higher seeded teams host all the game the 4/5 matchup tends to be the one most likely to produce a win for the road team. That rang true for the Patriot League Wednesday night (Lafayette) and for the NEC on Thursday, as fifth-seed Quinnipiac beat St. Francis (NY) 80-72 to set up a semifinal matchup with regular season champion LIU Brooklyn. The Bobcats, who are the best rebounding team in the NEC, grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and out-rebounded the Terriers 48-36 on the night. James Johnson didn't shoot well from the field (4-for-14) but he did make 12 of 17 from the foul line and scored a game-high 22 points to go along with eight rebounds, and Ike Azotam scored 15 and grabbed 12 boards inside. Brent Jones led four SFNY players in double figures with 21 points but the rebounding issues were too much to overcome. And that aspect of Quinnipiac's game is what gives them more than a puncher's chance at LIU on Sunday.

Quick Hitters

1. D.J. Covington scored 16 points and blocked four shots in 20 minutes of action to help lead VMI past Winthrop 75-55 as the Keydets advanced to the Big South title game. The seven-seed will face regular season champ UNC Asheville, who whipped Charleston Southern 91-64, on Saturday afternoon.

2. Darius Miller scored 17 points on Senior Night to help lead #1 Kentucky to a 79-49 win over Georgia, moving the Wildcats' win streak to 21. UK shot 15-for-27 from three, and when the Wildcats are rolling like that it's near impossible to knock them off.

3. Meyers Leonard scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds but it wasn't enough to lead Illinois past #16 Michigan, who won 72-61. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points and grabbed 11 boards for the Wolverines, who remain alive in the Big Ten title race.

4. Five Mississippi Valley State players reached double figures in scoring but it wasn't enough to lock up an undefeated run through SWAC play as the Delta Devils lost 78-67 at UAPB. Daniel Broughton scored 26 points and grabbed 13 rebounds off the bench to lead the Golden Lions. But regardless of the result Sean Woods' club will enter the conference tournament as the clear favorite to grab the automatic bid.

5. UCLA didn't look too distracted by the Sports Illustrated article that came out earlier this week, as they whipped Washington State 78-46 at the Sports Arena. Lazeric Jones knocked down eight of his ten shots from the field and scored 18 points to lead the Bruins, who host a Washington team looking to wrap up the outright regular season crown on Saturday.

6. Doubleheaders in the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley and WCC all went according to seed on Thursday night, and if one team were to be pegged as most likely to win on Friday it could be Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles held off a Southeast Missouri State rally to win 77-73, and with players such as Kevin Murphy (24 points) and Jud Dillard (18) they've got the horses needed to upset top-seed Murray State in the semis. Also keep an eye on Indiana State, who beat Southern Illinois 65-49 to set up a matchup with MVC champ Wichita State, especially if point guard Jake Odum's foot holds up.

7. Binghamton, who won just one game during the regular season, knocked off eight-seed UMBC 73-67 in overtime to advance to the quarterfinals in the America East tournament. Ben Dickinson led the Bearcats, who will take on regular season champion Stony Brook, with 21 points.

8. Derrick Rudolph led three players in double figures with 21 points in Savannah State's 73-54 win at Maryland-Eastern Shore, wrapping up the Tigers' first-ever MEAC regular season title. The coaches picked Horace Broadnax's team to finish 11th in the preseason.