Colorado St

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Non-BCS Top 25: Creighton, Colorado St Rise

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 19:08:29 -0700

The Non-BCS Top 25 is a CollegeHoops.net original, copied by multiple major outlets. As a weekly companion to our popular CHN Top 50 ranking, it takes an in-depth look into the underrated universe of teams outside of the big six. The original Non-BCS ranking.

Non-BCS Top 25: March 10th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Gonzaga	30-2	1
2	New Mexico	26-5*	2
3	Colorado St	24-7	9
4	VCU	24-7*	3
5	Creighton	27-7	10
6	Saint Louis	24-6*	4
7	Memphis	27-4	6
8	Butler	24-7	8
9	UNLV	23-8*	7
10	St. Mary's	27-5	12
11	Temple	23-8	14
12	Wichita St	26-8*	11
13	Belmont	26-6	15
14	MTSU	28-5*	5
15	San Diego St	21-9*	13
16	La Salle	21-8*	17
17	Bucknell	27-5	19

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last
18	Akron	24-6*	18
19	Boise St	21-9*	20
20	Louisiana Tech	26-5**	16
21	Stephen F Austin	26-3	21
22	Davidson	25-7	23
23	Valparaiso	25-7	24
24	Southern Miss	23-8*	22
25	Ohio	23-8	25

last = last week's ranking

* = Losses this week

Next 5: Denver (21-8), UMASS (19-10*), New Mexico St (20-10), Weber St (24-5), Stony Brook (24-7*),

Further 5: Xavier (17-13*), Air Force (17-12*), North Dakota St (22-8), BYU (21-11*), Florida Gulf Coast (24-10)

Out of Top 25: None

Agree/Disagree? Post your thoughts below or join us @collegehoopsnet

Check out last week's Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking

College Basketball Coaching Changes: 2012

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:43:20 -0700

As usual, the 2012 college basketball off-season features a never-ending parade of coaching changes. Some moves make sense, others are questionable, while others are simply head-scratchers. Thanks to collegesportsinfo.com, where a lot of this info was gleaned from. Also, apologies if all the colors give you a headache!

College Basketball Coaching Changes 2012: Power Conferences

Illinois

In - Jim Groce (ohio hc)

Out - Bruce Weber (fired >> kansas st))

Kansas St

In - Bruce Weber (illinois hc)

Out - Frank Martin (resigned >> so carolina)

LSU

In - Johnny Jones (north texas hc)

Out - Trent Johnson (resigned)

Mississippi St

In - Rick Ray (clemson asst)

Out - Rick Stansbury (retired)

Nebraska

In - Tim Miles (colorado st hc)

Out - Doc Sadler (fired)

South Carolina

In - Frank Martin (kansas st hc)

Out - Darrin Horn (fired)

Virginia Teach

Out - Seth Greenberg (fired)

College Basketball Coaching Changes 2012: High-Majors

Air Force

In - Dave Philopovich (asst)

Out - Jeff Reynolds (fired)

Colorado St

In - Larry Eustachy (so miss hc)

Out - Tim Miles (resigned >> nebraska)

Duquesne

In - Jim Ferry (liu hc)

Out - Ron Everhart (fired)

Rhode Island

In - Danny Hurley (wagner hc)

Out - Jim Baron (fired >> canisius)

Southern Illinois

In - Barry Hinson (kansas asst)

Out - Chris Lowery (fired)

SMU

In - Larry Brown

Out - Matt Doherty (fired)

Southern Miss

Out - Larry Eustachy (resigned)

TCU

In - Trent Johnson (lsu hc)

Out - Jim Christian (resigned)

Tulsa

In - Danny Manning (kansas asst)

Out - Doug Wojcik (fired >> charleston)

UAB

In - Jerrod Hasse (unc asst)

Out - Mike Davis (fired)

College Basketball Coaching Changes 2012: Mid-Majors

Central Michigan

In - Keno Davis

Out - Ernie Ziegler (fired)

Charleston

In - Doug Wojcik (tulsa hc)

Out - Bobby Cremins (retired)

FIU

In - Richard Pitino (louisville asst)

Out - Isiah Thomas (fired)

Miami (OH)

In - John Cooper (tennessee st hc)

Out - Charlie Coles (retired)

North Texas

In - Tony Benford (marquette asst)

Out - Johnny Jones (resigned >> lsu)

Ohio

In - Jim Christian (tcu hc)

Out - John Groce (resigned >> illinois)

Western Kentucky

In - Ray Harper (asst)

Out - Ken McDonald (fired)

College Basketball Coaching Changes 2012: Low-Majors

Brown

Out - Jessie Angel (fired)

Canisius

In - Jim Baron (rhode island hc)

Out - Tom Parrotta (fired)

Eastern Illinois

In - Jay Spoonhour

Out - Mike Miller (fired)

Grambling

Out - Bobby Washington (fired)

Idaho St

In - Bill Evans (montana asst)

Out - Joe O'Brien (resigned)

LIU

In - Jack Perri (asst)

Out - Jim Perry (reisgned)

Mt St. Mary's

In - Jamion Christian (vcu asst)

Out - Robert Burke (reisgned)

NC A&T

In - Cy Alexander

Out - Jerry Evans (fired(

Northern Arizona

In - Jack Murphy (memphis asst)

Out - Mike Adras (resigned)

Samford

In - Bennie Seltzer

Out - Jimmy Tillette (fired)

Southern Utah

In - Nick Robinson (lsu asst)

Out - Roger Reid (retired)

SFPA

In - Rob Krimmel

Out - Don Friday (fired)

Tennessee St

In - Travis Williams (asst)

Out - John Cooper (resigned >> Miami OH)

UNCG

In - Wes Miller (asst)

Out - Mike Dement (fired)

Wagner

In - Bashir Mason (asst)

Out - Danny Hurley (resigned >> rhode island)

Winthrop

In - Pat Kelsey

Out - Randy Peele (fired)

Please email shawn@collegehoops.net if we're missing any transactions

Jon Teitel's Forgotten Legends: Colorado State's Pat Durham

Jon Teitel — Fri, 04 May 2012 20:25:38 -0700

In the latest installment in his "Forgotten Legends" interview series, CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Colorado State great Pat Durham. By the time Durham left Fort Collins he was the program's all-time leader in both points and rebounds, marks he still holds to this day.

Jon Teitel: Colorado State head coach Boyd Grant liked to wear a fedora. What was he like to play for, and how did you like his ensemble?

Pat Durham: He usually wore slacks with the fedora but he was a very Bear Bryant-looking character, so it was both intimidating and funny at times.

JT: What are your memories of the 1988 NIT (CSU reached the semifinals before a two-point loss to Ohio State, then had a one win over Boston College in the third place game)?

PD: It was an incredible time for me and the university. The school had been absent from any postseason tournament for 20 years, so the excitement around the campus was just crazy. To this day I am still a little disappointed about the final results because we lost to Ohio State on a bad call in the final moments.

I felt that we should have won it all and I really wanted a piece of Connecticut and Cliff Robinson. As a competitor, you want to go head-to-head with other guys that are supposed to be better (according to the media or whatever). It is how you prove your talents.

JT: As a senior you served as national spokesman for the NCAA. How did you enjoy the gig?

PD: It was a great honor and great to have that kind of exposure on a national level, both for me and the university.

1989 NCAA tournament

JT: You scored 16 points in a win over Florida. What was the reaction like back on campus, and how far did you think your team could go?

PD: We felt as a team that we were robbed of an opportunity the year before because of Eric Leckner (who made a 19-foot fadeaway jumper at the buzzer to give Wyoming a two-point win in the WAC tournament semifinals). As a unit we felt that the NCAA tournament was the place where we belonged, and after being chosen for the tournament we also felt that we were one of the most underrated teams in the tournament so we definitely had a chip on our shoulders. We had a group of guys that just had no fear of any team. We were good defensively and believed that gave us an opportunity whenever we took the floor.

Getting SEC champion Florida was just what we needed to prove to the country that CSU was a legitimate team that could play and beat anyone, and we went about proving that in the first round. We had great fans that traveled to Dallas to watch us. Their support was just amazing.

It was also pretty cool for me to be back home playing in the tournament because my family and friends had a chance to watch the skinny kid they had seen before who some would say could not walk and chew bubble gum at the same time! When it came to basketball and leading a major university to the tournament with a national ranking, it was just awesome. The experience of playing on that level definitely fueled my confidence.

JT: In the second round you lost to Syracuse after Derrick Coleman returned from a back injury to score 12 points. Could you tell at the time that Coleman was going to become a star, and what was the feeling like in your locker room afterwards?

PD: Syracuse was a different story because at the end of the day they just had overwhelming talent. We really believed as a team that we could go as far as the Final Four, and I still feel that if we would not have gotten a team as loaded with talent as Syracuse that we would have stood a better chance of advancing.

DC was an incredible player. It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out that he would be great! That entire team was immensely talented but you could tell that DC was cut from different stock. You are ALWAYS disappointed when you lose, but I think that every one of our players could look each other in the eye and know that we had given our best and that our best was just not as good as theirs.

We understood that we had just gone to battle with a superior team. My dad once told me, "Son, it is okay to be proud, but in your pride do not be stupid!" You always want to think of you and your teammates as being the best, but I do not think you can at times ignore reality.

As far as the feeling in the locker room, there was still a feeling of great accomplishment for that team. On a fishing trip with Boyd a few summers ago in Utah, he brought to my attention that our 1988 team won more games than any other team in school history. Boyd does not forget anything, but when you reflect on those things you realize that you accomplished some good things.

JT: You were a three-time first team All-WAC performer (Colorado State was a member of the WAC at the time). How were you able to dominate throughout your college career?

PD: I have no idea. You look at the WAC and it is fair to say that the conference produced some great talent at that time. For me to compete in that era was great because it brought out the best in me. I believe that the traits I had as a player in terms of my work ethic and competitive drive definitely helped my cause. I was a guy that always wanted to win. It did not matter whether it was basketball or checkers: I just loved to compete and win.

A secret about me that not many people know or understand is that I never loved basketball. I am not a fan and did not even start playing basketball until I was about 15 years old, so I was a very late bloomer (so to speak). It was never the love of my life, but I found out that I could be good at it and what I loved more than anything was competition. Basketball gave me the chance to compete day in and day out.

I wish I had loved the game more but in some ways it gave me the ability to look at the game more objectively. I think because of that I never cared about statistics, and I think most guys who played with me would tell you that I played the game the right way.

JT: You are still the all-time leading scorer and rebounder in school history. Did you realize at the time how prolific a player you were?

PD: The great thing about that is that at the time I really did not understand what it all meant. It is only now that I begin to realize that leaving that kind of legacy is something I can be proud of; it is a great accomplishment. My kids are getting to the age where they are interested in basketball, and to be able to look in the books and have your name mentioned with some of the greats in school history is very humbling.

JT: In the summer of 1989 you were drafted in the second round by Dallas (one spot ahead of Cliff Robinson). Were you thrilled to realize your dream of making it to the NBA or disappointed that you did not get selected earlier?

PD: Both I guess. I felt like I could have gone higher in the draft, but just to be selected given my pedigree at that time was special. Neither CSU nor the WAC were a hotbed for NBA talent, so in some respects I felt like I had to be a little better than guys who were at more high-profile schools.

JT: You averaged five points per game during your two-year NBA career. How satisfied are you with your career, and how do you want people to remember you the most?

PD: I am not satisfied because I felt that if I could have had more time then my talent would have been able to shine through a little more. However, I had some wonderful opportunities in the NBA and it was a great experience. My career was definitely hampered by the lockout. I chose to go back to Europe instead of waiting around for the lockout to end, and I think it definitely hurt the amount of time that I probably could have played.

JT: You played professionally in Europe from 1996-2007. What did you learn from this experience, and how did it compare to the NBA?

PD: It was a wonderful experience because it allowed me to open my mind. I think that I became more of a well-adjusted person for that experience, and I also met my wife in France! Today we have four boys together who I hope will have the desire to become players one day. Playing in Europe made me well-rounded because much more is asked of you and the teams put a lot of pressure on the foreign players; plus it is much more of a team game.

Now you see European players coming here and the NBA having a better appreciation for the skill set of the Euro players, so you are kind of seeing the evolution of the game in terms of that style of play becoming more accepted by the NBA. In Europe we went into games knowing that getting a win did not require a 100% effort each and every night. In the NBA the talent level is there night in and night out, so you have a different mental preparation.

JT: You are co-founder of Archiva Sports. What kind of work does the company do, and what has your company accomplished so far?

PD: Archiva is a unique company in that we were the first company to work with professional agents and move their video to what is now known as "the cloud", and from there give them the ability to move content anywhere in the world within minutes. When we started this was all a very new concept and we had to twist some arms just to get them to try it. Now it is much more prevalent but at the time we were the trendsetters in the industry.

We have extended our market into high schools and are currently working on making Archiva the largest database of HS video available. We allow schools, agents, and players, to put their video into a cloud environment and give third-party users access to that content via email.

Durham is also on Jon's list of best players in Mountain West history:

Air Force: Raymond Dudley (1990) 2178 PTS (#1), 148 STL (#3), 285 3PM (#1), 39.6 3PM (#5), 2-time All-American
Boise State: Chris Childs (1989) 1602 PTS (#5), 392 AST (#3), 215 STL (#1), 42.2 3P% (#4), 81.8 FT% (#1), conference POY
Colorado State: Pat Durham (1989) 1980 PTS (#1), 851 REB (#1), 109 STL (#5), 171 BLK (#3)
New Mexico: Kenny Thomas (1999) 1931 PTS (#2), 1032 REB (#1), 239 BLK (#2), All-American
San Diego State: Michael Cage (1984) 1846 PTS (#2), 1317 REB (#1), 54.8 FG% (#5), 118 BLK (#2), 2-time All-American, 2-time conference POY
TCU: Corey Santee (2005) 1832 PTS (#2), 575 AST (#1), 155 STL (#2), 243 3PM (#1)
UNLV: Stacey Augmon (1991) 2011 PTS (#3), 1005 REB (#3), 275 STL (#1), 41.9 3P% (#3), All-American, conference POY, 3-time defensive POY
Wyoming: Fennis Dembo (1988) 2311 PTS (#1), 954 REB (#3), 410 AST (#4), 176 STL (#2), 143 3PM (#5), All-American, conference POY

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 13:30:12 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 31 to 45.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31-45

31 UNLV UNLV loses two starters, though returnees Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall are two of the MWC's top talents. The hope is that incoming freshman Katin Reinhardt (7th best shooting guard by Rivals) helps offset the loss of sharp-shooter Chace Stanback.

32 Arizona While Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson are solid returning players, its really all about the newcomers. In Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, and Grant Jerrett, Arizona welcomes 4 Top 50 recruits with pro potential. The team's lack of star point guard could hold them back however.

33 Davidson Already the Southern Conference's elite team, Davidson should be even better next year with everyone of note returning. De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen form a solid inside-outside tandem, and with a little bit of luck in non-conference play, Davidson could be a Top 25 team. This is the year Davidson reaps the rewards of the Steph Curry recruiting bounce.

34 Tennessee Once Jarnell Stokes joined the team, Tennessee played like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch. With the likes of Golden and Maymom returning, the Vols could even surpass this projection.

35 Ohio Everyone returns from a team that was just a few possessions away from the Elite Eight. Despite that, Ohio will not be a lock for the MAC title with solid squads returning across the league. Perhaps the league can potentially return to multiple-bid territory?

36 Washington It all comes down to the Draft for Washington. Freshman Tony Wroten and sophomore Terrence Ross are potential 1st Round Draft picks. I'm assuming for this prediction, that one of the two returns. If both return, UW could certainly make a push for the Pac-12 title.

37 Georgetown While Georgetown had a Top 15 season, they lose their best guard in Jason Clark and best big in Henry Sims. Hollis Thompson should return along with emerging talent Otto Porter to form a solid frontcourt. 5-star recruit D'Vauntes Smith Rivera (ranked 22nd by Rivals) is the key however. He replaces Clark as the team's main cog in the backcourt.

38 Cincinnati Cincinnati heads into next season without seniors Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon. Besides losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, Gates was also their leading rebounder and main interior presence. With little recruiting help on the way, it will be key that Sean Kilpatrick continues to emerge as a bona fine star.

39 Colorado St The Rams were probably never as good as their RPI suggested, but they still had a damn good season. Will Bell is a minor loss, but the key cogs return for another shot at an MWC title. A pair of 3-star recruits join the fray as well, a better recruiting haul than usual.

40 St. Joseph's With the entire roster returning, St. Joseph's should be a contender for the Atlantic 10 crown. Anything less than a tourney bid would be extremely disappointing.

41 Murray St Although Isaiah Canaan is a star, others will need to step up now that Donte Poole, Ivan Aska, and Jewaun Long depart. In those three seniors, Murray loses almost 45% of its scoring. The program does potentially welcome the OVC's best recruiting class however.

42 UMASS Although leading rebounder Sean Carter graduates, UMASS should be in the A10's upper echelon. Do-everything sophomore guard Chaz Williams has been lighting up the NIT, and will be a contender for next season's A10 Player of the Year.

43 South Dakota St With no seniors on the roster, South Dakota St will be hoping to improve on their 1st round NCAA Tournament loss. Although Nate Wolters improved his all-around game this year, he needs to recapture the long-range shot that propelled him to 40% from three his sophomore year.

44 Purdue In Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson, and Ryne Smith, Purdue loses almost 50% of its scoring production, as well as their leaders in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Although there is young talent waiting to breakout and a top-25 recruiting class on the way, Purdue will need another year before they're a major contender.

45 Missouri Frank Haith will somehow try and rebound from this year's shock 1st round exit without Denmon, English, Ratliffe, or Pressey. Although Missouri is loading up on solid (though not amazing) freshmen, it will take another year or two before the new squad finds its identity.

>> Continue to Teams 46 to 60.

Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 30

Murray St vs Colorado St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 20:46:37 -0700

(6) Murray St vs. (11) Colorado St: West Region

Records

Murray State 30-1, 15-1 OVC (Regular-season and conference tourney champions)

Colorado State 20-11, 8-6 MWC (At large)

Time: 12:15 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky.

Winner will face: (3) Marquette or (14) BYU/Iona

Rankings

Murray State No. 12 AP; No. 9 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll; No. x AP); Colorado State (No. x ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Murray State 27

Colorado 24

Line: Murray State -3½ (O/U 135½)

Players to Watch

Murray State: G Isaiah Canaan, 6-0 Jr. (19.2 ppg, 3.7 apg, 47.3% 3s); G Donta Poole, 6-3 Sr. (14.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 39.2% 3s); F Ivan Aska, 6-7 Sr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 50% FG). Canaan, who scored in double-figures in 29 of 31 games, was named the OVC Player of the Year and the collegehoops.net Mid-Major Player of the Year following his junior season.

Colorado State: F Pierce Hornung, 6-5 Jr. (8.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 64.3% FG); G Wes Eikmeier, 6-3 Jr. (15.6 ppg, 2.1 apg, 37.5% 3s); G Dorian Green, 6-2 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg). Eikmeier – an Iowa State transfer – was named 1^st-team all-MWC. However, he was just 3-for-8 with seven points in the Rams’ 79-69 Mountain West Tournament loss to San Diego State.

Why Each Team is Dangerous

Murray State: The Racers had the best winning percentage in the country, so they’re obviously a confidence bunch. They shoot the ball confidently, as well, knocking down 40.6 percent of their 3-point shots. Defensively, MSU is opportune. Its defense averages 8.4 steals per game and turns teams over 16.5 times per game – one of the best rates in the country. Playing close to home at Nashville will also give Murray a shot at a spot in the Sweet 16.

Colorado State: The Rams shot the ball well all season, leading the MWC (and were 25^th in the country) at 47.6 percent from the floor. They also led the league and were sixth nationally in free throw percentage (76.9 percent) and 3-point percentage (40.5). CSU was efficient, as well, scoring 1.09 points per possession. Eikmeier shot 64.3 percent from the floor and gets many of his points around the basket.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Murray State: The Racers are a decent defensive team, but they’ll have a tough time against a diverse offense like the Rams. Also, Murray can be vulnerable on the boards. Tennessee State out-rebounded the Racers 32-20 in the OVC championship game, including 10 offensive rebounds for the Tigers. A tough player like Hornung could have a big day on the glass for CSU.

Colorado State: The Rams are making their first NCAA appearance in nine years – and just their fourth since the 1960s – and are looking for their first NCAA win since beating Florida in 1989, so they have no tournament experience. CSU has very little depth – with Greg Smith out with an ankle injury, only seven players played in the MWC quarterfinals against San Diego State. With so few players in the rotation, foul trouble could be terminal for the Rams, who average 18.8 fouls per game and had 16 players foul out this season. The Rams’ defense is not exceptional, allowing teams to shoot 43.6 percent from the field and 35.7 from the 3-point line, and they only get 5.4 steals per game. That could be a bad sign against an explosive Racers’ squad.

The Bottom Line: Colorado State just doesn’t have enough firepower to have a real opportunity at an upset.

The Pick: Murray State 72, Colorado State 64

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

NCAA Tournament: 10 Potential First Round Upsets

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:04:11 -0700

Top 10 Most Likely Upsets

March is no time to play it safe. When you fill in your brackets over the next few days, here are the 10 most likely First Round upsets to focus on:

10 #14 South Dakota St over #3 Baylor

Led by Nate Wolters, South Dakota St had a rock-solid season with only one bad loss. In games against power conference teams, they've been very competitive (including a shock 19 point win at Washington.) This is not the best match-up for the Jackrabbits though as Baylor's size will be hard for them to handle.

9 #12 VCU over #5 Wichita St

VCU arguably deserved a 10 or 11 seed, instead of getting unlucky going against a Wichita St team that arguably was a 4 seed. Although their not as good as last year's Final Four team, the Rams play solid D which keeps them in most games.

9 #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas

While no 16 seed has ever won a first round game, 15 seeds pull off an upset about once a decade. Will this be that time? Detroit is hot, having come out of the solid Horizon League, and they have a big-time player in Ray McCallum. And don't forget, Kansas lost a home game to Davidson earlier in the year, so they're vulnerable. Don't bet the house on this one, but if you're feeling uber-risky, maybe this is your play.

7 #13 New Mexico St over #4 Indiana

The Aggies have hit their stride over the last month, and face Indiana feeling quite confident. As good as Indiana was this year, they still were shaky on the road, losing to the likes of Iowa and Nebraska.

6 #11 Colorado St over #6 Murray St

According to the RPI, Colorado St is barely any worse than Murray St, with the 26th best ranking vs 22nd for Murray. In a sense, this is like a 6 seed vs 7 seed game by the RPI. The spread is only 2.5 points right now which shows you how close Vegas thinks this game is.

5 #12 Long Beach St over #5 New Mexico

According to most ratings (including the RPI and KenPom), Long Beach St is a top 40 team. They played an extremely hard non-conference schedule, but always seemed to come just short of the big upset. Is this the time they finally break through?

4 #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

While Vandy is appropriately seeded as a 5, Harvard arguably deserves to be a 9 or 10 seed. The Crimson beat the likes of Florida St and St. Joseph's earlier, and although they didn't dominate the Ivy League like many expected, the Ivy League was also better than most realize. So long as Harvard can keep the game at a slow pace, this should be a game until the final minutes.

3 #14 Saint Bonaventure over #3 Florida St

Florida St is a hard team to figure out. They've had great results against Duke and North Carolina, but yet lost to Boston College, Princeton, and Clemson. With Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have a player more talented than anyone on FSU.

2 #13 Ohio over #4 Michigan

Led by do-everything PG DJ Cooper, Ohio is a feared 13 seed. The Bobcats beat 7 top 100 teams, and MAC squads tend to fare well in the Tournament. Michigan was great at home this year, but no so great on the road. If the Wolverines aren't hitting threes, Ohio could pull off the upset.

1 #13 Davidson over #4 Louisville

Although Louisville won the Big East tournament, they seem very vulnerable here. Davidson not only beat Kansas on the road earlier in the year, but they only lost to 5 seed Vanderbilt by 4 points as well. Louisville wins by playing tight D, but because they struggle to score, they fail to crush weaker opponents and keep them in the game. This one could be interesting.

More Bracket Tips

Bracketology Poll: Who is the Worst At-Large Team?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:29:03 -0700

Northwestern and USF Stumble Late: Thursday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 06:16:19 -0800

It was a tough day for bubble teams in the Pac-12 as both Washington and Oregon fell in the quarterfinals.

1. Also stumbling on Thursday were Northwestern and USF, with the former being in far greater trouble at this point.
Northwestern University has never made the NCAA tournament, and with their 75-68 overtime loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tournament that could very well remain the case after Sunday. In each of the last two seasons there seems to be a moment where Bill Carmody's team needs to make one play, be it a score or a defensive stop, to get the job done but the Wildcats simply can't. The problem against Minnesota: they couldn't shoot inside of the arc.

Both teams finished the game 11-for-26 from beyond the arc, but the Wildcats squandered a 17-6 edge from the foul line (points) by making just nine of their thirty-one shots from two (29%). John Shurna scored 21 points on the afternoon but made just two of eight two-point shots, and Drew Crawford did the same while scoring just eight. If not for JerShon Cobb putting up 24 points and eight rebounds, there likely would not have been an overtime period to play.

As for USF, while many can argue with the aesthetics you really can't argue with the results, as Stan Heath's Bulls have won 13 conference games when adding their second round win over Villanova. But against a team that also plays a deliberate brand of basketball USF was unable to pick up the signature win they needed, falling to Notre Dame 57-53 in overtime in the final game of the night in the Big East Championship. Stan Heath's team looked to be in good shape late in regulation, but stunning decisions lef the door for the Irish, and USF's execution on their final possessions of overtime provided a fitting ending for a frustrating night. But unlike Northwestern the Bulls were able to win a game in their conference tournament, so they have that going for them at least.

2. Texas was one team that took advantage of their opportunity as they beat Iowa State.
It seemed to take a while on Thursday to find a team that truly took advantage of its opportunity to make a statement to the selection committee, but Rick Barnes' Longhorns didn't disappoint in the final game of the night at the Big 12 tournament. After shooting 26.3% from the field in the first half Texas shot 50% in the second, scoring 46 points to beat three-seed Iowa State 71-65 to advance to the Big 12 semis. Texas shot 54% from two and got to the foul line at a higher rate, knocking down 14 of their 17 attempts while the Cyclones could manage just four attempts.

J'Covan Brown led the way with 23 points and five rebounds while Myck Kabongo added 11 and five assists with no turnovers, and Clint Chapman was solid on both ends of the floor with ten points and eight rebounds while also helping defend Royce White. Texas should feel good about their NCAA hopes but there is the matchup with Missouri on Friday night, and a win there would provide a nice boost to their seeding as well.

3. Indiana beats Penn State but they may have lost Verdell Jones III for the remainder of the season.
Tom Crean's Hoosiers knocked off Penn State 75-58 in a Big Ten tournament game, out-rebounding the Nittany Lions 45-29 to make up for shooting just 36.5% from the field. But it may have been a Phyrric victory, as senior guard Verdell Jones III went down with that was reported to be a sprained knee during the first half. More tests will be done on Friday, but when an injury occurs like Jones' (non-contact) there isn't a very positive outlook.

Head coach Tom Crean was near tears when discussing the injury in postgame interviews, and it's easy to see why. Jones III was one of the guys who was there with Crean from the start, going through the horrible 6-25 campaign and the tough process of bringing Indiana basketball back to this point. Do the Hoosiers have the depth needed to make up for Jones' loss if he can't go in the NCAA tournament? They do, and this likely means more minutes for a Will Sheehy, but it's deeper than that. For all the work Verdell Jones III put into the program it would be fitting that he's on the floor in the Big Dance. Sadly, that may not happen.

Quick Hitters

1. One more team was added to the NIT field on Thursday night as the regular season champ in the Southland, UT Arlington, fell 92-72 to McNeese State. The defense let the Mavs down as McNeese State shot 54.2% from the field and knocked down 11 of 24 three-point shots to ensure the win.

2. Also of note in New York was Syracuse's 58-55 win over Connecticut, and for a team that's had so many answers this season the Orange found another on Thursday. James Southerland scored ten points off the bench and Scoop Jardine 18 as Syracuse advanced to Friday's quarterfinal.

3. Two players their respective teams will need to step up in the Big Dance did just that in the Big 12 quarterfinals, as Perry Jones III put up a double-double (31 points, 11 rebounds) in Baylor's 82-74 win over Kansas State. As for the other player that would be none other than Kansas' Elijah Johnson, as he scored 26 points in the Jayhawks' 83-66 win over Texas A&M.

4. Iowa may have brought an end to the Bruce Weber era in Champaign, beating Illinois 64-61 in the first game of the day at the Big Ten tournament. Matt Gatens paced the Hawkeyes with so 20 points and Aaron White added 13 and nine rebounds off the bench. In fact it was announced that Weber will not be retained as head coach on Friday morning.

5. The game of the day may not have been artistic by any means, but that's of little concern for a Marshall team that outlasted Tulsa 105-100 in triple overtime. DeAndre Kane led all scorers with 40 points, and it would come as no surprise if the Herd were to reach Saturday's title game.

6. Cal State Fullerton picked arguably the worst time of the season to have their three-point shot to betray them. In the Titans' 65-59 loss to UC Irvine the Titans shot 5-for-20 from three while the Mustangs shot 10-for-22 from beyong the arc. Chris McNealy led the way with 24 points.

7. ACC bubble teams NC State and Miami took care of business on Thursday night, beating Boston College and Georgia Tech respectively to advance to the quarterfinals. Next up for the Wolfpack is four-seed Virginia, while the Hurricanes take on Florida State in the day's final quarterfinal.

8. It wasn't the prettiest shot but all that matters is the end result, as Jamaal Franklin's three as time expired gave San Diego State a 65-62 win over Boise State in a Mountain West quarterfinal. The top four seeds all advanced and that includes Colorado State, who beat TCU 81-60 and should be safely in the NCAA tournament field at this point.

Bracketology: Colorado St In, Mississippi St Out

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 21:30:57 -0800

Bracketology projections will be coming fast and furious right up until Selection Sunday. While the top two seed lines remain unchanged in this update, there are a ton of changes around the Bubble. Colorado St not only moves into the field, but jumps to an 11 seed, as competitors like Seton Hall, Washington, and Northwestern faltered.

However, the big loser is Mississippi St, who drops out of the field. The Bulldogs fell to Georgia in the SEC Tournament, their sixth loss in eight tries. Mississippi St is also looking at an RPI in the 70's when the #'s update tomorrow morning. Drexel is currently the last team out, but I could move them into the field before Sunday. A10 hopefuls St. Joseph's and Dayton have big games tomorrow.. a loss by either would eliminate them from contention.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs. Locked Up Bid.

ONE

Kansas**

TWO

Duke**

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

Temple**

SIX

SEVEN

Memphis**

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

Harvard**

ELEVEN

VCU**

Colorado St

TWELVE

THIRTEEN + 2

Washington / Northwestern

Belmont**

Nevada**

FOURTEEN

Davidson**

South Dakota St**

Akron**

Montana**

FIFTEEN

Loyola (MD)**

Long Island**

Lehigh**

Texas-Arlington**

SIXTEEN + 2

Detroit**

UNC-Asheville**

Stony Brook** / Mississippi Valley St**

Western Kentucky** / Savannah St**

Last In: Northwestern, Washington, Miami, Seton Hall

First Out: Drexel, Mississippi St, Oregon, South Florida

Further Four: NC State, Ole Miss, St. Joseph's, Dayton

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Mississippi St

New (at-large): Colorado St

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

America East - Stony Brook
A-10 - Temple
ACC - Duke
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Kansas
Big East - Syracuse
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Savannah St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - San Diego St
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - California
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas-Arlington
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - Nevada
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.