upsets

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 10:46:16 -0400

Top 10 Sweet Sixteen Picks: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 14:19:49 -0400

Top 10 Sexy Sweet Sixteen Picks

Its one thing to pick a few first round upsets (here are 10 likely ones), its a whole other thing picking cinderella sweet sixteen teams. Every good bracket has at least one surprise sweet sixteen team (if not two), so here are the 10 best ones to choose from:

10 #12 VCU

Can last year's Cinderella team do it again? In a different spot, I'd think they'd have a much better chance to make a run, but Wichita St might be the best of the 5 seeds. VCU arguably deserved to be a 10 seed considering their top 40 RPI and strong finish. If VCU can get past Wichita St, then Indiana in the 2nd round might actually be an easier game.

9 #14 BYU/Iona

The odds of either of these teams advancing to the Sweet Sixteen is obviously hurt by the fact they'd need to win an extra game. But these teams are really 11 or 12 seeds that got knocked down to 14 because of scheduling issues. Both of these teams run high-octane, high-tempo offenses and thus should fare well against a Marquette team that plays a similar style.

8 #11 Texas

While Cincinnati had a good run in the Big East tournament, they're more than capable of flaming out early in the Big Dance. Texas has a lot of losses, but most of them are to Top 30 teams, and the computer rankings say that Cincinnati is not a Top 30 team. The biggest thing holding Texas back is a lack of 3-pt shooting.. if they happen to find a hot streak and J'Covan Brown is on his A game, the Sweet Sixteen is easily possible

7 #12 Harvard

With wins over Florida St and St. Joseph's, Harvard has shown ability to beat post-season quality teams. Facing Vanderbilt in the first round is not a bad draw for Harvard, considering Kevin Stalling's teams have been known to fizzle out in the NCAA Tournament. A potential second round matchup with Wisconsin seems favorable as the Badgers tempo plays right into Harvard's style.

6 #12 Long Beach St

Long Beach St lost to Top 5 teams North Carolina and Kansas by just 6 and 8 points in true road games. That shows you how dangerous the 49ers are. Point guard Casper Ware was hot in the Big West tournament, and he has the ability to dominate a game. If Long Beach St could somehow top New Mexico, they might even be favored in the next match against Louisville or Davidson.

5 #13 Ohio

Two years ago, Ohio won a first round game against Georgetown, and their opening game against Michigan seems quite similar. Guard DJ Cooper has star potential, but his scoring ability is highly eratic. When he's on, Ohio can be extremely dangeorus.

4 #11 NC State

Appropriately seeded in the 11 range, NC St takes on San Diego St to start things off. According to KenPom.com and other similar computer ratings, NC State is actually ranked higher than the Aztecs. In a sense, the ratings suggest this is really a battle between two 11 seeds, exemplified by the game's 1 point spread. Lurking beyond San Diego St is Georgetown, arguably the weakest of the 3 seeds.

3 #14 Belmont

Many thought Belmont had an outside shot at the Top 25 this year, but they lost a couple close games early before finding their groove late in the season. The A-Sun champs are feared due to their highly efficient offense. Georgetown rarely loses to lesser teams, but their zone could play into Belmont's hands. The winner of this game faces San Diego St or NC State.. Las Vegas could easily favor Belmont against either of those two.

2 #13 Davidson

Davidson faces West #4 seed Louisville to open things up. Louisville used stifling defense to win the Big East tournament, but yet somehow they seem vulnerable. The Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games, and although they tend to win those game, it always keeps the door open for a potential upset. If Davidson manages to squeeze by, they'd face the winner of Long Beach St and New Mexico.

1 #14 Saint Bonaventure

The Bonnies, led by star Andrew Nicholson, face East Region #3 FSU to start things off. Despite winning the ACC title, FSU has shown a willingness to play down to opponents, and Leonard Hamilton teams have lost in the first round two of the last three years. A potential second round matchup with either Cincinnati or Texas looms, but neither of those teams strike fear into anybody.

More Bracket Tips. Plus Top 10 Potential First Round Upsets

NCAA Tournament: 10 Potential First Round Upsets

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 13:03:47 -0400

Top 10 Most Likely Upsets

March is no time to play it safe. When you fill in your brackets over the next few days, here are the 10 most likely First Round upsets to focus on:

10 #14 South Dakota St over #3 Baylor

Led by Nate Wolters, South Dakota St had a rock-solid season with only one bad loss. In games against power conference teams, they've been very competitive (including a shock 19 point win at Washington.) This is not the best match-up for the Jackrabbits though as Baylor's size will be hard for them to handle.

9 #12 VCU over #5 Wichita St

VCU arguably deserved a 10 or 11 seed, instead of getting unlucky going against a Wichita St team that arguably was a 4 seed. Although their not as good as last year's Final Four team, the Rams play solid D which keeps them in most games.

9 #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas

While no 16 seed has ever won a first round game, 15 seeds pull off an upset about once a decade. Will this be that time? Detroit is hot, having come out of the solid Horizon League, and they have a big-time player in Ray McCallum. And don't forget, Kansas lost a home game to Davidson earlier in the year, so they're vulnerable. Don't bet the house on this one, but if you're feeling uber-risky, maybe this is your play.

7 #13 New Mexico St over #4 Indiana

The Aggies have hit their stride over the last month, and face Indiana feeling quite confident. As good as Indiana was this year, they still were shaky on the road, losing to the likes of Iowa and Nebraska.

6 #11 Colorado St over #6 Murray St

According to the RPI, Colorado St is barely any worse than Murray St, with the 26th best ranking vs 22nd for Murray. In a sense, this is like a 6 seed vs 7 seed game by the RPI. The spread is only 2.5 points right now which shows you how close Vegas thinks this game is.

5 #12 Long Beach St over #5 New Mexico

According to most ratings (including the RPI and KenPom), Long Beach St is a top 40 team. They played an extremely hard non-conference schedule, but always seemed to come just short of the big upset. Is this the time they finally break through?

4 #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

While Vandy is appropriately seeded as a 5, Harvard arguably deserves to be a 9 or 10 seed. The Crimson beat the likes of Florida St and St. Joseph's earlier, and although they didn't dominate the Ivy League like many expected, the Ivy League was also better than most realize. So long as Harvard can keep the game at a slow pace, this should be a game until the final minutes.

3 #14 Saint Bonaventure over #3 Florida St

Florida St is a hard team to figure out. They've had great results against Duke and North Carolina, but yet lost to Boston College, Princeton, and Clemson. With Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have a player more talented than anyone on FSU.

2 #13 Ohio over #4 Michigan

Led by do-everything PG DJ Cooper, Ohio is a feared 13 seed. The Bobcats beat 7 top 100 teams, and MAC squads tend to fare well in the Tournament. Michigan was great at home this year, but no so great on the road. If the Wolverines aren't hitting threes, Ohio could pull off the upset.

1 #13 Davidson over #4 Louisville

Although Louisville won the Big East tournament, they seem very vulnerable here. Davidson not only beat Kansas on the road earlier in the year, but they only lost to 5 seed Vanderbilt by 4 points as well. Louisville wins by playing tight D, but because they struggle to score, they fail to crush weaker opponents and keep them in the game. This one could be interesting.

More Bracket Tips

Writer's Picks: Upsets, Cinderellas, and the Champion

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:52:16 -0400

Who will make the deepest runs in the 2012 NCAA Tournament? Who will flop early? Which players will shine? Alongside of CollegeHoops.net's Official Prediction, our crack staff of college basketball gurus presents their March Madness picks.

When it comes to the Final Four, our picks are admittedly rather tame, as we each have Kentucky and North Carolina in the Final Four. However, each of us has projected multiple juicy early round upsets, including one person's shock Elite Eight pick.

Disagree with our picks? Voice your opinion in our NCAA Tournament Fan Polls.

Bracket Picks	Raphielle Johnson Assistant Editor @raphiellej	Greg Mengelt Game Predictions @gregmengeltbb
Champion
Final Four (South)	Kentucky	Kentucky
Final Four (West)	Syracuse	Syracuse
Final Four (East)	North Carolina	North Carolina
Final Four (Midwest)	Missouri	Missouri
Elite Eight	Baylor	Baylor
Elite Eight	Ohio St	Ohio St
Elite Eight	Georgetown	Detroit
Elite Eight	Memphis	Memphis

Players
Tournament MVP	Anthony Davis	Kendall Marshall
All-Tournament	Kendall Marshall	Ricardo Ratliffe
All-Tournament	Dion Waiters	Quincy Acy
All-Tournament	Marcus Denmon	Will Barton
All-Tournament	Terrence Jones	Anthony Davus

Other
Sweet 16 Surprises	Memphis + Xavier	Detroit + Belmont
First Round Sleepers	NMSU Montana Davidson	Detroit Belmont Lehigh
Early Round Dud	Michgan St + Duke	Kansas + Duke
Best 1st Round Game	Wichita St vs VCU	Indiana vs NMSU
Committee Flop	No Drexel	No Drexel + Memphis an 8

Bracket Picks	Shawn Siegel Head Editor @collegehoopsnet	Jon Teitel Interviews
Champion
Final Four (South)	Kentucky	Kentucky
Final Four (West)	Ohio St	Syracuse
Final Four (East)	North Carolina	Kansas
Final Four (Midwest)	Michigan St	Marquette
Elite Eight	Duke	Baylor
Elite Eight	Syracuse	Ohio St
Elite Eight	Georgetown	North Carolina
Elite Eight	Murray St	Louisville

Players
Tournament MVP	Anthony Davis	Kris Joseph
All-Tournament	Isaiah Canaan	Dion Waiters
All-Tournament	Harrison Barnes	Darius Johnson-Odom
All-Tournament	Jared Sullinger	Thomas Robinson
All-Tournament	Draymond Green	Anthony Davis

Other
Sweet 16 Surprises	Long Beach + Murray	Florida + San Diego St
First Round Sleeper	Long Beach Davidson Ohio	Long Beach VCU Harvard
Early Round Dud	Missouri + Florida St	Missouri + Duke
Best 1st Round Game	UNM vs Long Beach	Harvard vs Vandy
Committee Flop	Iona In, Creighton an 8	Colorado too High

Bracket Tactics: 16 Tips for All 16 Seeds

Jon Teitel — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 19:11:10 -0500

Each year, CollegeHoops.net's Jon Teitel comes through with nifty stats and tips that can help you win your NCAA Tournament Pool. Here are 16 actionable Bracket Tips for the 16 tournament seeds:

#16 seed: Only one 16 seed has ever taken a #1 seed to OT (Purdue beat Western Carolina 73-71 in 1996)

What this means: Whatever you, don't pick a 16 seed to upset a #1 seed.

#15 seed: The last to win a game was Hampton in 2001

What this means: While a couple 15 seeds have won a game, don't start picking upsets until the 14 seeds

#14 seed: Only 2 have made the Sweet 16 since 1985 (1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga)

What this means: Over the last decade, Cinderella runs have focused on 12 or 11 seeds. Perhaps this year will be different?

#13 seed: Morehead St won a game last year.

What this means: While everyone focuses on 12 over 5 upsets, there's a decent chance a 13 will win a game this year (they just might not go to Sweet 16.)

#12 seed: At least one 12 seed has made the Sweet 16 each year since 2008 (including Richmond in 2011)

What this means: 12 seeds have been hot in recent years, ride the wave and pick a 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16 again.

#11 seed: VCU made it to the Final 4 as an 11 seed in 2011

What this means: The last few years have shown how much parity there is in college basketball.

#10 seed: Florida St made the Sweet 16 in 2011 from this spot.

What this means: Teams that play great D, like FSU and Butler last year, can always be dangerous in the tourney.

#9 seed: Only four 9 seeds have made the Sweet 16 since 1985 (1992 UTEP, 1994 BC, 2004 UAB, 2010 UNI)

What this means: 9 seeds often beat 8 seeds, but 8 seeds rarely win another game.

#8 seed: Only 4 8 seeds have made it to the Final 4 since 1985 (1985 Villanova [won title], 2000 WI, 2000 NC, 2011 Butler)

What this means: If an 8 seed knocks off a #1 seed in the 2nd round, they can easily run to the Final Four.

#7 seed: The last to make the Sweet 16 was WVU in 2008

What this means: 6 and 7 seeds are often overrated power conference teams that fizzle out early.

#6 seed: The last 6 seeds to make the Sweet 16 were Xavier and Tennessee (both in 2010)

What this means: See 7 seed above.

#5 seed: The last 5 seeds to make the Final Four were Butler and Michigan St (both in 2010)

What this means: Although 5's struggle against 12's in the opening round, once they get through, look out.

#4 seed: Only two 4 seeds have reached the title game since 1985 (1996 Syracuse, 1997 national champ Arizona)

What this means: While 4 seeds are usually Top 20 pedigree teams, don't pick one to win it all.

#3 seed: Four 3 seeds have won the title (1989 MI, 2003 Syracuse, 2006 Florida, 2011 Connecticut)

What this means: There's often been a substantial jump in success between 3 and 4 seeds.

#2 seed: Great in the 2^nd round if they made it to their conference tourney final, but below-average if they did not.

What this means: When 2 seeds fizzle out in their conference tourneys, its usually a sign of things to come.

#1 seed: Only twice since 1985 has there been a Final 4 without at least one #1 seed (2006 and 2011)

What this means: It's fun to have a risky bracket, but silly not to pick a Final Four without a 1 seed.

Check out CollegeHoops.net's Bracket Tips for more help picking your bracket.

Poll: Which Projected 13 Seed Would You Be Most Afraid to Face?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 00:15:48 -0500

College Basketball: Unbalanced Scheduling Leads to Unfair Respect

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:09:05 -0500

Unlike the NBA, college basketball schedules are not equitable. In non-conference play, wealthy schools can host as many home games as they'd like, while other schools can go on the road to raise cash. Schools can choose to play cupcakes or challenge themselves in stacked pre-season tournaments. Even in conference play, some leagues have unbalanced scheduling that can alter the final standings substantially. (Georgetown will never get a chance to avenge last night's overtime loss to Syracuse.)

The reality is that the top teams play mostly meaningless games. The real action (in fact, the only action) happens on the road. The Top 40 teams listed below have only won 36% of their road/neutral games against Top 50 teams, a 58-103 record. In fact, over half of all the losses accumulated by Top 40 team came in these few games. They went 674-93 in other games.

Syracuse & Kentucky, the top 2 teams in the AP Poll, haven't won a single game against a Top 50 team away from home. Perhaps what makes those 2 schools seem so dominant, is not that they are better, but because they are simply untested. Most schools fatten up on wins against teams ranked below 50th in the RPI and against away teams below 100th in the RPI. The Top 40 schools are a whopping 534-40 in these games, winning at a 93% clip.

It is easier to beat a Top 50 team at home as it is to beat a team ranked 51st-100th on the road. The Top 40 teams win 75% of their games against Top 50 teams, and 69% against 51-100 away from home.

Come NCAA Tournament time though, teams don't have the chance to feast on home wins. Only in the 1vs16 or 2vs15 games, can teams play against teams outside the Top 100. The Selection Committee probably does not focus enough on road vs home success in their bracketology decisions, which could lead to some teams being overseeded or underseeded. But you shouldn't fall into that trap. When the Tournament comes around, be sure to check out how teams have fared against quality teams on road or neutral courts. Ohio St & Florida have a whopping 2 combined wins against Top 100 teams away from home in 8 tries. Come tournament time, these numbers will certainly come into play. Perhaps we've found two teams primed for early round upsets?

			R/N	R/N	Home
RPI	Team	Overall	Top 50	51-100	Top 50	Others
1	Syracuse	24-1	0-1	3-0	5-0	16-0
2	Duke	20-4	3-2	3-0	3-2	11-0
3	Kentucky	24-1	0-1	1-0	5-0	18-0
4	Kansas	19-5	2-4	2-0	5-0	10-1
5	Ohio St	21-3	1-3	0-0	5-0	15-0
6	Baylor	20-3	6-1	1-0	1-2	13-0
7	Michigan St	18-5	2-5	0-0	4-0	12-0
8	UNC	20-4	1-3	2-0	3-1	13-0
9	Missouri	22-2	5-1	3-0	1-0	13-1
10	Southern Miss	18-4	1-2	2-1	1-0	14-1
11	UNLV	19-4	2-3	0-1	3-0	14-0
12	Marquette	20-5	1-3	3-1	2-1	14-0
13	Georgetown	17-5	3-3	0-1	3-0	10-1
14	Florida	19-5	0-3	1-0	3-0	15-2
15	Michigan	17-7	1-5	1-1	6-0	9-1
16	Indiana	18-6	1-4	2-0	3-1	12-1
17	Memphis	17-7	1-5	0-1	1-1	15-0
18	Wichita St	20-4	0-2	3-0	1-1	16-1
19	Temple	18-5	3-0	0-2	0-0	15-3
20	San Diego St	18-3	1-2	2-0	3-1	12-0
21	Creighton	21-4	2-0	1-2	1-0	17-2
22	St. Mary's	20-2	1-1	1-1	2-0	16-0
23	Louisville	19-5	1-2	1-0	4-2	13-1
24	UCONN	15-8	2-3	1-1	3-1	8-3
25	Gonzaga	18-4	2-3	1-0	2-1	13-0
26	Colorado St	14-7	0-3	0-3	1-1	13-0
27	Vanderbilt	17-7	2-2	1-1	1-1	13-3
28	Saint Louis	18-5	0-1	4-2	0-1	14-1
29	Wisconsin	18-6	2-2	1-0	3-3	12-1
30	Alabama	16-7	1-3	2-1	0-2	13-1
31	Florida St	16-7	1-4	2-0	2-0	11-3
32	Seton Hall	16-8	1-4	3-2	2-2	10-0
33	West Virginia	16-9	1-5	2-0	3-1	10-3
34	Mississippi St	18-5	1-2	1-2	2-0	14-1
35	Long Beach St	15-6	0-5	2-0	0-0	13-1
36	Miami	14-7	1-3	0-2	0-1	13-1
37	Northwestern	14-8	2-5	1-0	1-2	10-1
38	Murray St	20-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	18-0
39	Harvard	19-2	1-1	1-0	0-0	17-1
40	MTSU	20-4	0-1	1-1	0-0	19-3
			58-103	55-25	85-28	534-40
	Winning % =		0.36	0.69	0.75	0.93

I'll update these numbers occasionally as Selection Sunday rolls around. Post comments below or send a note to @collegehoopsnet on twitter.

Poll: Most Likely 12 vs 5 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 01:15:23 -0400