Florida

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Louisville vs Florida: Elite Eight

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 15:09:45 -0700

(4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida: West Region

Records

Louisville 29-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

Florida 26-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Time: 4:30 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky, (3) Baylor, (4) Indiana or (10) Xavier, March 31 in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico, 59-56; def. Michigan State 57-44

Florida def. Virginia, 71-45; def. Norfolk State, 84-50; def. Marquette 68-58

Rankings

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Louisville 9

Florida 15

Line: Florida -1½ (O/U 131)

Players to Watch

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 50.6% FG). Like Siva, Dieng is effective even when he’s not scoring. Despite just five points, the sophomore had a huge impact on Thursday’s win over top-seeded Michigan State with nine boards, seven blocks and three steals.

Florida: G Bradley Beal, 6-3 Fr. (14.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 spg); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16 ppg, 2.6 apg, 41.1% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 61.6% FG). Beal has played his best basketball in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and almost two steals in the Gators’ three games.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Louisville: The Cardinals’ defense has been unmatched in the tournament. Teams are scoring just 54 points per game, and are shooting just 34.7 percent from the floor and are 14-of-52 from the 3-point line (26.9 percent) in three tournament games. Top-seed Michigan State managed to shoot 28.6 percent overall and 23.8 from deep. U of L’s defense also has 16 steals in the tourney. The Louisville offense is balanced with five different players averaging at least 9.1 points per game. Against the Spartans, seven players scored at least four points and the Cardinals’ bench outscored MSU’s 17-4. The Cards out-rebounded a very good rebounding Michigan State team 34-32.

Florida: The Gators have to be a confident bunch after out-scoring their three NCAA Tournament opponents 223-153. The first two games could be chalked up to good matchups, but the win 10-point win over 3-seed Marquette was impressive. The Gators won unconventionally. They hit just seven of their 27 3s, but they held the Eagles to 20-of-65 from the field and 6-of-21 from the 3-point line. They out-rebounded Marquette 39-34 and blocked nine shots. For the season, Florida is shooting 38 percent from deep, they’ve made more 3-pointers (349) than any team in the country and almost every Gator is capable of hitting shots from the outside. Their 1.35-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 11^th in the country and they have five regulars who shoot 76 percent or better from the charity stripe.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Louisville: While the Louisville defense has been great, its offense still struggles to put up points. It has managed to just better than 40.4 percent just once in the tournament and has been over 50 percent just once in the last 17 games. They made just 21-of-55 overall against Michigan State. Louisville turns the ball over 14.3 times per game and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. For the season, the Cardinals shoot just 42.4 percent from the field and 31.6 from behind the 3-point arc.

Florida: Despite Thursday’s effort, Florida is not a great defensive team. They are allowing 64.8 points per game, 42.3 percent shooting and 34.1 from the 3-point line. They have just a 2.8 rebounding margin for the season. Florida is a decent perimeter defensive team, but besides Young, has little paint presence. With the injury to Will Yeguete, the Gator bench is very thin, especially in the frontcourt.

The Bottom Line: Louisville’s perimeter defense will shut down the Gators and send the Cardinals to the Final 4.

The Pick: Louisville 63, Florida 56

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-168-6

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:25:26 -0700

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

Marquette vs Florida: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 07:53:54 -0700

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida: West Region

Records

Marquette 27-7, 14-4 Big East (At large)

Florida 25-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Time: 10:17 p.m. Thursday

TV: TBS

Location: U.S. Airways Arena in Phoenix

Winner will face: (1) Michigan State or (4) Louisville, Sunday

Tournament Results

Marquette def. BYU, 88-68; def. Murray State, 62-53

Florida def. Virginia, 71-45; def. Norfolk State, 84-50

Rankings

Marquette No. 11 AP; No. 11 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Marquette 6

Florida 20

Line: Marquette -1½ (O/U 146)

Players to Watch

Marquette: F Jae Crowder, 6-6 Sr. (17.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.5 spg); G Darius Johnson-Odom, 6-2 Sr. (18.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg); G Junior Cadougan, 6-1 Jr. (6.5 ppg, 5.4 apg, 1.2 spg). Crowder earned his fifth straight double-double with 17 points and 13 rebounds in Saturday’s win over Murray State. During that stretch, the senior is averaging 18.6 points, 13.4 boards, 3.1 steals and three assists per game.

Florida: G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16 ppg, 2.5 apg, 41.5% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 61.8% FG); G Bradley Beal, 6-3 Fr. (14.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.1 apg). Beal continues to raise his game, scoring 28 points, grabbing 20 boards, handing out four assists and hitting 9-of-16 from the field in the Gators’ two NCAA blowout wins.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Marquette: Crowder and Johnson-Odom are among the best duos left in the tournament, similar to the Nolan Smith-Kyle Singler combo that led Duke to the national championship two years ago. Behind the two seniors, the Eagles average 76 points per game, but its defense that makes them go. Opponents score 65.9 points per game and shoot 40.2 percent and 31.8 percent from deep against Marquette. The Eagles force 16.6 turnovers per game, having a 3.4 turnover margin and a 1.26-to-1 assist-to-turnover margin. The Eagles have proven their mental toughness is as strong as anyone in the nation.

Florida: The Gators are a great shooting team and they have a lot of different players who can score from the perimeter. They shot 52.8 percent from the floor and 35.7 from deep against Norfolk State and have out-scored their NCAA Tournament opponents 155-95. For the season, Florida shoots 38.3 percent from behind the arc (30^th nationally) and score 38.6 percent of their points from deep (sixth in the nation). Florida forces 12.8 turnovers per game and gets 6.4 steals per contest.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Marquette: Unlike the Singler-Smith combo, Marquette doesn’t have the offensive balance or depth that the Blue Devils did in 2010. When Chris Otule went down for the season, it put a serious dent in Marquette’s depth and size. For the season, the Golden Eagles have been out-rebounded 1,233-1,200. They also turn the ball over 13.3 times per game and allow 7.2 steals, and that could be a concern against a perimeter-oriented Florida team.

Florida: The Gators have no frontline depth. Having to guard Crowder could cause foul trouble, which could doom the Gators. Young is a decent defender, but otherwise, Florida has almost no defensive presence in the paint. For the year, Florida has out-rebounded its opponents by 2.9 per game, including a 40-30 margin over the Spartans, but they allow offensive rebounds on 30.3 percent of opponents’ shots. Their 71.1 free throw percentage could be a concern in what should be a tight game. Florida has four regulars who shoot under 75 percent at the stripe.

The Bottom Line: After wins over a limited Virginia team and a fluky Norfolk State, there’s far too much love for a streaky Florida team with no frontline. Can the Gators win? Of course. Can they win by have another offensive explosion? Yes. Is either of those things likely against Marquette? Don’t think so.

The Pick: Marquette 79, Florida 74

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:46:40 -0700

Florida vs Norfolk St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 20:29:32 -0700

(7) Florida vs. (15) Norfolk State: West Region

Records

Florida 24-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Norfolk State 26-9, 13-3 MEAC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 6:10 p.m. Sunday

TV: TNT

Location: CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Neb.

First round results

Florida def. Virginia, 71-45

Norfolk State def. Missouri, 86-84

Winner will face: (3) Marquette or (6) Murray State, Thursday in Phoenix

Rankings

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Florida 21

Norfolk State 131

Line: Florida -14 (O/U 141)

Players to Watch

Florida: G Erving Walker, 5-8 Sr. (12.1 ppg, 4.7 apg, 37.1% 3s); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16.3 ppg, 2.5 apg, 42.7% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 60.8% FG). The Gators are at their best when Young is aggressive – and he was on Friday. He made all six of his field goals for 13 points. He also had seven rebounds, including three on the offensive end.

Norfolk State: C Kyle O’Quinn, 6-10 Sr. (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 bpg); G Pendarvis Williams, 6-6 So. (11.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.5 apg); G/F Chris McEachin, 6-6 Sr. (12.8 ppg, 1.3 spg, 34.1% 3s). All season, experts were wondering why teams couldn’t take advantage of Missouri’s size disparity. On Friday, O’Quinn showed everyone else how it’s done with 26 points (on 10-of-16 from the field), 14 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. The Jamaica, N.Y., native has now shot 50 percent or better in six straight games and has made 58.3 percent of his shots this season.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Florida: It seems like a loss gave the Gators confidence. After being blown out by Kentucky twice this season, Florida played the No. 1 Wildcats close on March 9. In their first game since, the Gators shot 52.8 percent and scored 71 points against one of the best defenses in the country. Florida, which shoots 46.2 percent from the field and 38.4 from 3, made 24 of their 30 2-point shots and dominated the paint against the Cavs. They also out-rebounded them 36-21 and forced 13 turnovers. That’s a good sign, because for the year, Florida gets 38.5 percent of its points from behind the 3-point line. For the year, Florida has a 1.4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Norfolk State: The Spartans have won eight straight games and have proven they can play with good teams. As well as beating Missouri Friday, Norfolk State played Marquette within two points and beat Drexel in November. On Friday, they shot 54 percent from the field, 53 percent from the 3-point line and out-performed Missouri 35-23 on the glass.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Florida: The win over Virginia probably needs to be put into perspective. With a plethora of injuries, the Cavs haven’t been the same team for about a month. Despite its performance on Friday, Florida is an average-to-weak rebounding team. The Gators out-rebounds opponents by just 2.5 per game. Against O’Quinn and the Spartans, that number could haunt them. Florida’s overall defense is pretty good. It gives up only 43.2 percent from the floor. However, teams shoot 35 percent from 3 and make 6.2 3-pointers per game against it.

Norfolk State: Despite Friday’s performance, this is not a great shooting team. For the year, NSU is shooting just 44 percent from the floor, 31.8 percent from behind the 3-point line and 65.4 percent from the foul line. The Spartans average just one point per possession, so the argument that Friday’s offensive performance was a fluke may be legit. Even with O’Quinn, who is a great player and rebounder, Norfolk is not a great rebounding team. They out-rebounded their MEAC opponents by just 2.3 per game and they allow opponents to rebound 32.5 percent of their own misses.

The Bottom Line: The Spartans simply don’t have enough offensive talent to do it again. Do they?

The Pick: Florida 79, Norfolk State 61

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 216-165-6 (Through Friday, March 17)

Round of 32 Against the Spread: 19-12-1

Florida vs Virginia: Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 06:04:46 -0700

(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia: West Region

Records

Florida 23-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Virginia 22-9, 9-7 ACC (At large)

Time: 2:10 p.m. Friday

TV: TNT

Location: Century Link Center in Omaha, Neb.

Winner will face: (2) Missouri or (15) Norfolk State, Sunday

Rankings

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Virginia No. 34 AP; No. 33 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Florida 23

Virginia 54

Line: Florida -3½ (O/U 121)

Players to Watch

Florida: G Erving Walker, 5-8 Sr. (12.1 ppg, 4.7 apg, 37.1% 3s); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16.3 ppg, 2.5 apg, 42.7% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 60.8% FG). Walker, Boynton and Young all had quiet games in the Gators’ SEC semifinal loss to Kentucky. They combined to go 9-for-28 for 20 point and seven rebounds in the 74-71 loss.

Virginia: F Mike Scott, 6-8 Sr. (18.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 56.2% FG); G Joe Harris, 6-6 So. (11.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 39.5% 3s); G Jontel Evans, 5-11 Jr. (7.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.6 spg). Scott, who is averaging nearly 29 points and 11 rebounds over his last three games, came up two votes shy of being named ACC Player of the Year. North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller got 186 to Scott’s 184.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Florida: Florida has an explosive offense with several scoring options. Five different Gators average double-figure scoring. Boynton, Walker and Bradley Beal are all affective from the perimeter. Walker and Beal are good slashers and Young and Erik Murphy provide punch in the paint. Florida is shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3 (21^st nationally). The Gators don’t turn the ball over much. They have a 15-to-10.9 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 13-to-10.9 turnover margin.

Virginia: The Cavaliers play some of the best defense in the country. They surrender just 53.7 points per game, which is second in the country (to Wisconsin). They held opponents to 39.6 percent shooting (27^th in the country) and 29.5 from the 3-point line. Scott is an excellent go-to scorer on the offensive end and he’s a beast on the boards.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Florida: Florida is guard-oriented. Young and Murphy are the only Gators with any significant size since Will Yeguete was lost for the season. They had exactly the same amount of rebounds as their opponents in SEC play. Young is a decent defender, but Florida has allowed a lot of points in the paint this season. The lack of an inside game also allowed them to score just 17.7 percent of their points at the foul line.

Virginia: The Cavs’ offense isn’t awful, but it is prone to long scoring lapses. Virginia scores just 63.1 points per game and is below average from the 3-point line at 33.7 percent.

The Bottom Line: It’s an interesting matchup in terms of style, but it’s clear that the Cavs aren’t the same team after their injuries throughout the season.

The Pick: Florida 71, Virginia 62

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

NCAA Tournament Preview: Backcourts to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 08:28:55 -0700

It's stated all the time this season. Guard play makes all the difference in the NCAA tournament, and to be honest it's hard to argue with that statement. So who are some of the top guard groups in this year's field? Here are 12 below along with a few superlatives. Not all of the usual suspects make the list, but try not to automatically dismiss the less heralded names either.

South Region

1. Duke
While this group does struggle at times on the defensive end of the floor there's no doubt that the Blue Devils' guards can fill it up. Austin Rivers is their best playmaker, and as long as the ACC Rookie of the Year can properly balance scoring with creating for his teammates he's very tough to stop. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are both dead-eye shooters, and Tyler Thornton is the best defender. But as noted above, if the defense isn't there Duke could find themselves in trouble.

2. Xavier
The Musketeers have to get past a tough Notre Dame team before a possible matchup with Duke (don't sleep on Lehigh's C.J. McCollum), but despite their struggles throughout the season Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons aren't to be ignored. Holloway runs the show and Lyons mans the two, and they can also call on Brad Redford for perimeter shooting.

3. UNLV
Most are likely going to wonder why the Runnin' Rebels are on this list and not, say, UConn but the fact of the matter is that Dave Rice's group has been more consistent throughout the season. Anthony Marshall is one of the best athletes in the country and Oscar Bellfield's impact tends to be overlooked by many. Add in a very good defender in Justin Hawkins and shooter Kendall Wallace and Dave Rice has a corps of guards capable of winning multiple games in the tournament.

Guards you'll love: C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Nate Wolters (South Dakota State)
Both are among the nation's best scorers, and Wolters leads the Jackrabbits in points, rebounds and assists. Each one has a matchup in which they could become household names, with McCollum taking on Duke and Wolters matching up with Baylor.

Best defender: Victor Oladipo (Indiana)
Good luck getting past the athletic Oladipo, whose offensive game has gotten closer to his defensive skills as the season's progressed. At the least the sophomore could be a first team All-Big Ten player next year.

The difference-maker: Marquis Teague (Kentucky)
If Kentucky's to reach their full potential (win a national title) the play of Teague will be key. He had an inconsistent SEC tournament but played his best basketball as the regular season came to a close.

The enigmatic group: Connecticut
Talent-wise there may not be a better group in the region. But despite the talent of Ryan Boatright, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier there are questions, most importantly will they be "there" for the entire 40 minutes. Drifting in and out of a game will get you beat this time of the year.

East Region

1. Syracuse
The Orange at the least can go three deep with starters Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche with one of the nation's best reserves in Dion Waiters coming off the bench. The key to a national title will be Jardine, because while the Orange can easily plug someone into his role skill-wise if the fifth-year senior's struggling they can't replace the experience. And with Fab Melo out the guards become even more important.

2. Ohio State
This region has two elite defenders with the Buckeyes' Aaron Craft being one (more on the other later), and William Buford could become the program's all-time leading scorer with a deep run in the tournament. The Buckeyes aren't particularly deep on the perimeter (Jordan Sibert backs up Craft) but they are talented.

3. Florida State
If Luke Loucks takes care of the basketball this group has the ability to be even better than third best in the region. Michael Snaer has beenvery good all season long and the midseason addition of Ian Miller definitely helped on the offensive end. Deividas Dulkys can get hot from deep, as he did in their regular season win over North Carolina, and all can defend.

Guards you'll love: Will Cherry (Montana) and Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
Cherry's the other defensive star in this region, as he was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Big Sky and is among the best in the country in steals. Pangos is just a freshman, and his first introduction to college basketball came in the form of his impressive shooting performance in Gonzaga's tip-off marathon appearance.

Best defender: Craft

The difference-maker: Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin)
Wisconsin's been a team some have pegged as a possible upset victim, and if the Badgers are to not only avoid that but win multiple games their senior point guard will have to be at his best.

The enigmatic group: Cincinnati
The Bearcats were able to make a shift to a smaller lineup comfortably with the emergence (and return to health) of Jaquon Parker, and they've been a better team as a result. But given the number of threes that Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright get to take, the Bearcats need them to be on if they're to make a run.

Midwest Region

1. Temple
North Carolina has Kendall Marshall and Kansas can point to Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson. But the three-headed attack that Fran Dunphy has could be the best backcourt in the region. Juan Fernandez, Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt can all do a variety of things, making them interchangable in a sense. If they're on the Owls have the ability to not only reach the Sweet 16 but possibly go even further.

2. Kansas
Tyshawn Taylor shouldn't be questioned at this point, as the senior's matured and made better decisions with the basketball at this point in the season. The guy the Jayhawks need to be a factor over the next couple of weeks is Elijah Johnson, as he can relieve some of the pressure on the shoulders of Taylor and Thomas Robinson. Travis Releford has also been a key cog this season, and that will need to continue if Kansas is to reach New Orleans.

3. San Diego State
The Aztecs go four deep on the perimeter and all four can hurt you in different ways. Xavier Thames runs the show at the point and Chase Tapley is a solid scorer at the two, and all Jamaal Franklin did was win Mountain West Player of the Year. Last but not least is James Rahon, a key reserve in their Elite 8 run last season who can not only knock down perimeter shots but also do the little things.

Guys you'll love: D.J. Cooper (Ohio) and Kerron Johnson (Belmont)
Cooper was a key figure in the Bobcats' whipping of Georgetown in the 2010 tournament, and he's improved as a scorer while remaining a very good distributor. Johnson leads the way for Belmont, a team that's been a popular selection when it comes to teams that can pull off an upset (or two).

Best defender: Jorge Gutierrez (California)
Gutierrez won Pac-12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year for his efforts and with good reason. The senior is one guard few will be looking forward to seeing on the other side of the floor, beginning with USF on Wednesday night.

The difference-maker: Kendall Marshall (North Carolina)
The best passer in the region will be the guy who determines the winner of the Midwest. Marshall has also been more willing to punish sagging defenders by way of the jump shot, an aspect of his game that's improved over the course of the season.

Emerging star: Lorenzo Brown (NC State)
For a short time some asked if Brown was in fact the best point guard in the ACC. He's that talented, and with his size the sophomore has the potential to be a matchup problem for teams this week. And he's only going to get better with more experience.

West Region

1. Missouri
The Tigers navigated Laurence Bowers' torn ACL quite well thanks to their guards, going 30-4 and winning the Big 12 tournament title. Phil Pressey runs the show while Marcus Denmon and Kim English are the leading scorers. There's also Phil's older brother Matt and off the bench Michael Dixon Jr. is one of the best sixth men in the country. English's ability to produce at the four is tough to match, and unless a team has Jamar Samuels-like presence (Kansas State beat the Tigers twice for this reason) Mizzou could be headed to New Orleans.

2. Florida
The Gators are also deep on the perimeter but the key for them will be the decision making of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. If those two are unselfish and get the ball to Bradley Beal and Patric Young then Florida has the look of a team that can get to a Final Four. When they don't things tend to go wrong. Virginia's pack line defense will force Florida to make perimeter jumpers, but that's one of the things they do best.

3. Murray State
We all know about Isaiah Canaan by this point and rightfully so as the OVC Player of the Year is also an All-American. But Donte Poole can play as well, averaging 14.2 points per game. Add in senior Jewuan Long and you've got a nice group of guard capable of leading the Racers to the second weekend of the tournament.

Guys you'll love: Jason Brickman (LIU Brooklyn) and Casper Ware (Long Beach State)
Tried to go a bit off the radar with one of these selections, and with the high tempo that the Blackbirds prefer the sophomore from Texas will be fun to watch against Michigan State. Ware's been outstanding for four years and finally gets his shot at the game's biggest stage after two straight losses in the Big West tournament final.

Best defender: Darius Johnson-Odom (Marquette)
If Long Beach State's Larry Anderson were 100% he could qualify as would teammate James Ennis. But DJO, who is also one of the best scorers in the field, is also a good defender who can get out in passing lanes. With the Golden Eagles lacking a defensive presence in the paint the defensive effort of Johnson-Odom on the perimeter becomes even more important.

The difference-maker: Joe Jackson (Memphis)
One of the reasons why Josh Pastner's team has played so well down the stretch is that they've allowed Chris Crawford to take on more of the distribution duties. That in turn has relieved some of the pressure on Jackson, but he's still going to have to play well if the Tigers are to go out and prove that they were underseeded.

Another difference-maker: Peyton Siva (Louisville)
The question of which Siva will we see in Portland is similar to which Louisville team will we see: the one that was inconsistent during Big East play and struggled to score, or the one that won four games in New York City last week. If Siva's on and making good decisions the Cardinals are capable of beating anyone. If not then they're also capable of losing to anyone.

Bracketology Poll: Which Team Was Most Underseeded?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 22:16:43 -0700