Fresno St

#66 Fresno St: 2010-11 Basketball Preview

Joel Welser — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 18:28:43 -0700

Overall Rank: #66

Conference Rank: #3 Western Athletic Conference

2009-10: 15-18, 7-9

2009-10 postseason: none

Coach: Steve Cleveland (78-71 at Fresno State, 216-189 overall)

It is not often that a team loses their top two scorers and expectations go up, but that is the case this season with Fresno State. Coach Steve Cleveland weathered a very disappointing season last year, but with a bevy of talented newcomers, Fresno State finally has something they have not had in a while…depth. The competition for playing time will be fierce and that can only be a good thing.

Key Losses: G Paul George, G Mike Ladd, F Sylvester Seay, G Brandon Sperling

Key Newcomers:

It is in the backcourt where the most talent is coming. Junior college transfer Tim Steed is a quality combo guard who will battle for a starting spot at both the point and shooting guard spot. The same can be said for incoming freshman Kevin Olekaibe. His lack of experience may leave him on the bench for now, but that could change sooner rather than later. Bennie Rhodes, a 6-5 shooting guard, will push the returning players as well. Tyler Johnson could even work his way into the mix if he can stay healthy. Among those four newcomers, no returning perimeter player has a safe spot in the starting five. The frontcourt needs depth and Fresno State hopes Bracken Funk and John Ryan can provide it. Neither may be ready for major minutes, but this is a team that needs somebody new to provide 15 minutes or so off of the bench.

Backcourt:

Steven Shepp started at the point most of last season and averaged 5.5 points and 4.6 assists per contest. Shepp is not the greatest playmaker in the world and his offense and defense need to get better. However, Shepp is an upperclassman now and he will not give up his job without a fight and has the potential to emerge as a better all-around player and a leader. The good news is Fresno State should not have to run a point guard due to lack of other options. This year whoever is playing best will run the show. Taylor Kelly barely played last season, but the sophomore could battle it out with newcomers for minutes off of the bench. Garrett Johnson played more during his freshman campaign and the 6-7 wing will probably be asked to do a lot this season. He will not need to start, but Johnson could emerge as a very valuable and versatile player off of the bench.

Frontcourt:

The frontcourt has far fewer options. Greg Smith will start again after averaging 11.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks as a freshman. Smith quickly turned into a dominating presence in the paint and the NBA is taking notice. At 6-9 and 240 pounds, Smith can clog the paint on both sides of the floor and should be this team’s best scorer. The big question is at the power forward position. Nedeljko Golubovic was a key reserve last season, but was once a starter. For now he will likely start again, but he is not a great athlete and certainly needs to improve on his overall production. The other option is the more athletic Jerry Brown, Jr. At 6-7 and 195 pounds, Brown does not have the girth to be a traditional power forward, but he is an aggressive and athletic player. Those two will probably mix and match at the four spot depending on the competition, but Brown could be a pleasant surprise if he can overcome some injury concerns.

Who to Watch:

The Bulldogs have a lot of newcomers as it is, but the most experienced at this level is Jonathan Wills. The 6-6 junior started 19 games over two seasons with New Mexico and is a proven shooter. His experience will likely earn him the starting role at the small forward position and his ability to hit the long ball will be very important on a team that will rely on a ton of newcomers in the backcourt. With Wills having the experience and the familiarity with the system, he will have to be this team’s main shooting threat until the newcomers come around.

Final Projection:

Losing Paul George and Sylvester Seay will not make this team better immediately, but overall this team has more potential. As long as they can find a leader and a way to win the games they should win, Fresno State will be in the mix for a Western Athletic Conference championship. By February and March this should be a team with a lot of talent and players who know their roles on the team. That may not be enough to beat out Utah State or New Mexico State, but it should be enough for a postseason berth.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NIT

Projected Starting Five:

Steven Shepp, Junior, Guard, 5.5 ppg

Tim Steed, Junior, Guard, DNP last season

Jonathan Wills, Junior, Forward, DNP last season

Nedeljko Golubovic, Senior, Forward, 3.0 ppg

Greg Smith, Sophomore, Center, 11.5 ppg

Next Top 144 Teams
67		68		69		70		..All

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the WAC Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 05:58:28 -0800

College Basketball: Top 25 Freshmen

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 10:59:39 -0800

Led by future #1 NBA pick John Wall, this year's freshman class will be one to remember. What makes it particularly interesting is that not all of the top performers are at power conference schools. The WCC, CUSA, A10, MWC, WAC, and others have top-level rookies that can play with the best in the country. Here's a list of the Top 25 freshman in the country so far, with a bias on actual performance as opposed to potential. While players like UNC's John Henson may one day tear up NBA harcourts, this list focuses on the guys who are getting it done right now.

Points are listed first, followed by rebounds & assists.

Top 25 Freshmen

1. John Wall - Kentucky - G
17.0, 3.7, 6.9, 2.1 spg
Best player on the #1 team in the land. Not bad for a freshman.

2. DeMarcus Cousins - Kentucky - F/C
15.4, 9.5, 0.9, 1.8 bpg
On a per-minute basis, no one tops Cousins' production. 28 points and 18 boards per 40 minutes.

3. Xavier Henry - Kansas - G
14.3, 3.9, 2.0, 1.9 spg
Fading a bit as season has progressed, but still super talented.

4. Avery Bradley - Texas - G
12.3, 2.7, 2.5, 1.5 spg
Playing-time and scorig output has increased in recent weeks.

5. Derrick Favors - Georgia Tech - C
11.8, 8.9, 0.9, 1.1 spg, 1.9 bpg
Spotty at times, but has as much potential as anyone on the list.

6. Eric Bledsoe - Kentucky - G
11.3, 3.1, 3.2, 1.3 spg
Overshadowed by Wall & Cousins, but brings it every night.

7. Elias Harris - Gonzaga - F
16.1, 8.2, 1.1, 1.1 spg
Without Harris, Gonzaga wouldn't be near Top 25.

8. Derrick Williams - Arizona - F
15.6, 7.1, 0.7
Threat for 20 & 10 each night is keeping UofA afloat.

9. Hassan Whiteside - Marshall - F/C
12.7, 9.4, 0.3, 5.4 bpg
If you're wondering how Marshall is 15-4, here's the answer.

10. Kenny Boynton - Florida - G
14.6, 3.1, 3.3
If/when he finds consistency from three, can be 20 ppg scorer.

11. Reggie Moore - Washington St - G
14.4, 2.1, 4.6, 1.4 spg
Good mix of size, scoring, and passing ability.

12. Maurice Creek - Indiana - G
16.1, 3.8, 1.8, 1.4 spg
Will be a key component to a possible IU turnaround.

13. Lance Stephenson - Cincinnati - G
12.2, 4.8, 2.7, 1.0 spg
Has room for growth if cuts back on TO's and works on long ball.

14. Aaric Murray - LaSalle - F/C
12.1, 7.2, 1.4, 2.6 bpg
Defensive presence can surprise by hitting outside shots.

15. Marshawn Powell - Arkansas - F
15.4, 6.7, 1.2, 1.1 spg, 1.3 bpg
Positive note on otherwise blah Razorback squad.

16. Kawhi Leonard - San Diego St - F
11.4, 9.4, 1.9, 1.5 spg
Double-double machine is only improving.

17. Derek Needham - Fairfield - G
15.5, 3.5, 5.8, 2.0 spg
Dynamic guard has helped Stags to quality start, but needs to make better decisions.

18. Greg Smith - Fresno - F
12.1, 6.7, 1.1, 1.5 bpg
Coming off 25 point, 11 rebound, 5 assist game

19. Alec Burks - Colorado - G
16.8, 5.2, 1.8, 1.2 spg
One of the top scoring freshmen in the country.

20. Tyler Haws - BYU - G/F
12.4, 4.5, 1.5
Highly consistent wing is big reason BYU is 20-1.

21. Tiny Gallon - Oklahoma - C
11.2, 8.9, 0.8
Highly inconsistent, but tons of potential.

22. Tommy Mason-Griffin - Oklahoma - G
10.8, 2.8, 4.8
Quality PG needs more diverse offensive game.

23. DJ Cooper - Ohio - G
13.2, 4.6, 5.4, 2.8 spg
Puts up top-notch numbers for subpar Bobcats team.

24. Jake Cohen - Davidson - C
12.3, 4.8, 0.7, 1.3 bpg
Perhaps tiring due to lack of fitness, but one to watch.

25. John Jenkins - Vanderbilt - G
10.7, 2.4, 1.0
Improved play of late is big reason Vandy's won 9 in a row.

Others To Watch
There's not too much separating the guys below from the guys above.

Chris Braswell - Charlotte
Greg Gantt - Florida Atlantic
Jordan Hamilton - Texas
CJ Harris - Wake Forest
Arsalan Kazemi - Rice
Lasan Kromah - George Washington
JP Kuhlman - Davidson
Tony Mitchell - Alabama
Reeves Nelson - UCLA
Alex Oriakhi - UCONN
Durand Scott - Miami
Mfon Udofia - Georgia Tech
Christian Watford - Indiana
Maalik Wayns - Villanova
Jordan Williams - Maryland
Travon Woodall - Pittsburgh

College Hoops Thursday: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 19:48:51 -0800

Thursday's schedule may be lacking in regards to "marquee" games but there are important conference games to check out. Louisiana Tech hosts Fresno State in a matchup of the WAC's only two undefeated and there will be plenty of offensive talent on display. Kyle Gibson currently leads the conference in scoring and teammate Magnum Rolle has played the way people expected the LSU transfer to play when his career began. But on the other end, Louisiana Tech will have to account for Paul George and Sylvester Seay, two wings with the ability to light up the scoreboard.

There are also important games in the West Coast and Big South conferences, with Gonzaga visiting Saint Mary's while defending Big South champ Radford takes on Coastal Carolina. The Bulldogs have already won at Portland so a win in Moraga would clearly hand them the driver's seat in the WCC. But Randy Bennett's squad will be up to the task thanks to the presence of Omar Samhan and others.

As for the Highlanders of Radford they'll lean on big man Artsiom Parakhouski in an important road game against the Chanticleers, who are 6-0 in conference play. Joseph Harris and Chad Gray make up one of the better frontcourt pairings many haven't heard about this season and they'll give Radford headaches if they aren't careful. A Radford win ties them in the loss column for first place while a win for Coastal Carolina provides the Chanticleers with much-desired separation.

TV GAMES

7p ESPN2 Auburn at Tennessee
7p ESPN Seton Hall at Georgetown
7p ESPNU Arkansas at Mississippi State
7p CBS-College Lehigh at Navy
9p ESPN Indiana at Michigan
9p ESPN2 Providence at DePaul
9p ESPNU Tennessee Tech at Tennessee-Martin
9p ESPN+ Fresno State at Louisiana Tech
10:30p FSN Stanford at Washington
11p ESPN2 Gonzaga at St. Mary's (Calif.)
11p ESPNU Santa Clara at Pepperdine

OTHER GAMES

7p Cleveland St at Butler
7p Radford at Coastal Carolina
7:30p Eastern Illinois at Eastern Kentucky
7:30p High Point at Charleston Southern
8p Wright St at Green Bay
8:30p Arizona St at Oregon
10p California at Washington St
10:30p Portland at San Diego

ONE PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech over Fresno State: The pick here is Louisiana Tech in the battle of the Bulldogs because of the rebounding ability of Ola Ashaolu. With all the scoring talent you'll see on the floor it will be the one player known more for his defense and rebounding that makes the difference.

WAC Basketball Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:52:52 -0800

Nevada has perhaps the league's best player in Luke Babbitt, but a lack of depth should help keep the likes of Utah State and NMSU in the midst of the league race. .

Conference Rank: 11th

10 year average: 11th

Conference Page

All-WAC Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Jahmar Young	Nevada	So
G	Mac Hopson	Idaho	Sr
G	Roderick Flemings	Hawaii	Sr
G/F	Jared Quayle	Utah State	Sr
F	Luke Babbitt	Nevada	Fr

Player of the Year - Luke Babbitt Freshman of the Year - Greg Smith (Fresno)
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
CHN All-Americans Luke Babbitt High-Major All-Americans Luke Babbitt (1st Team) Mac Hopson (3rd) Roderick Flemings Armon Johnson Jared Quayle Jahmar Young All-Freshman Greg Smith		Points: Jahmar Young 17.9 Rebounds: Wendell McKines 10.0 Assists: Mac Hopson 5.9 Team Points: New Mexico State 76.3

WAC Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

46	Nevada	WAC	1	NCAA
51	Utah State	WAC	2	NIT
75	New Mexico St	WAC	3	NIT
105	Boise State	WAC	4	CBI/CIT
146	Idaho	WAC	5
169	Fresno State	WAC	6
185	Louisiana Tech	WAC	7
197	San Jose State	WAC	8
255	Hawaii	WAC	9

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the WAC?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the WAC?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:06:41 -0700

Thursday/Friday Football Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:58:04 -0700

The ACC gets the Thursday night stage all to itself again, this time for #14 AP/13 Coaches Georgia Tech (2-0, 1-0 ACC) visiting #20/22 Miami (1-0, 1-0 ACC) in a rematch (7:30 PM on ESPN) of a game that got ugly for the Hurricanes. Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets rushed for 472 yards in the 41-23 win, and the effort was the best rushing effort against Miami since 1944 (Auburn, 536 yards). Led by Jonathan Dwyer's 128 yards four Jackets rushed for at least seventy-eight yards on a night in which the Hurricanes failed to play assignment football, routinely getting caught out of position. Lucas Cox was the runner who finished with seventy-eight yards, but the Yellow Jackets have a bigger threat taking the carries that don't go to Dwyer, QB Josh Nesbitt or RB Roddy Jones.

Louisville transfer Anthony Allen racked up 127 yards on just five carries in Georgia Tech's win over Clemson last Thursday, breaking one for an eight-two yard touchdown. Randy Shannon and company know what they'll be in for; the key is to execute your assignment and not get caught out of position. Team speed on defense can be suicidal if the players aren't getting to where they need to be. Miami's main defensive issue in the opener was their secondary but Florida State's run game is nothing like the Jackets', whether you look at the scheme or how effective it is.

Did Jacory Harris come of age in the Labor Day thriller? That's the question that will be answered in front of a national television audience. The true difference makers get the job done week in and week out; Harris has had more than a week to go over both the tape from the Florida State game and what he'll see from a fast Georgia Tech defense that can take advantage of mistakes in the passing game (two interceptions against Clemson). If backs Graig Cooper and Javarris James can loosen up the Yellow Jacket defense on the ground look for things to open up for Harris.

This can go one of two ways: Georgia Tech gashes the Hurricanes on the ground all night, or Miami takes care of their assignments. If that happens, expect another wild night in the ACC. The pick here is Georgia Tech, but this will be a close game with a thrilling finish.

Friday: #10/10 Boise State @ Fresno State (9 PM on ESPN)

This has been cited as the biggest in-conference roadblock to the Broncos getting back to the BCS (they do visit Tulsa in October), and that could be accurate given how Louisiana Tech and Nevada have played so far. Pat Hill's Bulldogs gave Wisconsin all they wanted in Madison last week, falling in overtime to the Badgers. Last season's meeting got out of hand in Boise, with the Broncos racking up 494 yards and sixty-one points in the 61-10 beating. A big part of the loss for Fresno State: their inability to run the football. Ryan Matthews was out and the Bulldogs ran for just eighty-three yards on 35 carries.

It also didn't help that Boise State averaged more than eight yards per play; if Fresno State is to entertain any thoughts of pulling the upset they've got to win first down defensively. Kellen Moore and company have many options to turn to offensively but they've haven't hit that extra gear in either of their two wins. Eight of the eleven meetings have taken place since the Broncos joined the WAC in 2001, and they've won seven of those eight meetings. The lone defeat: at Fresno State in 2005. Fresno State is also going up against Boise State's history in WAC openers; they're 8-0 all-time.

Boise State will have to work, you wouldn't expect anything less than a streetfight from a Pat Hill-coached team especially when considering what happened last season. But Chris Petersen's team will do enough to pick up the win and continue on their quest towards another WAC title, with fans dreaming of another BCS berth at season's end.

The Ultimate Schedule: WAC

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:19:49 -0700

WAC Scheduling “Rules”:

- Five non-conference games (as a result of playing at Hawaii, you get to make up travel costs with an extra home game)

- Eight conference games

Week 1: Oregon @ Boise State (September 3^rd)

Things got a little heated in last season’s meeting, which was won by the Broncos. Boise State picked up two personal fouls for late hits, one of which resulted in an ejection (Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was knocked out of the game on one of those hits). Of course the rematch coincides with the new mandate that teams must shake hands prior to the game. Let’s just say that Masoli and friends were none too thrilled with that prospect, and RB LaGarrette Blount told Sports Illustrated’s Austin Murphy in the offseason that “we owe them an ass whuppin’.” The national media may place more focus on Alabama/ Virginia Tech, but this may be the game of the weekend.

Other Games Considered: Nevada @ Notre Dame (9/5), Louisiana Tech @ Auburn (9/5), Idaho @ New Mexico State (9/5)

Week 2: Louisiana Tech @ Navy (September 12^th)

Before playing Army last season the Bulldogs had never faced a service academy team in football. It probably wouldn’t be a good idea to mention that Louisiana Tech managed just 152 yards of offense in the 14-7 loss, and Navy’s a much better team than the Black Knights. But Derek Dooley’s team should perform better on offense this season with Ross Jenkins firmly entrenched as the starter.

The Bulldogs ranked second in the WAC and thirteenth nationally in rush defense, allowing opponents to rush for just under 104 yards per game. A performance like that against the team that’s led the nation in rushing each of the last four seasons would be improbable, but the Bulldogs just need to do enough to ensure a win.

Other Games Considered: Fresno State @ Wisconsin (9/12), Utah @ San Jose State (9/12)

Week 3: Boise State @ Fresno State (September 18^th)

The Bulldogs haven’t had much success against Boise State in recent years, dropping three straight and seven of the last eight meetings. If Pat Hill’s team wants to entertain any thoughts of winning the WAC they need to defend their home turf in front of a national television audience. Things got beyond out of hand on the “Smurf Turf” last season, with Boise State romping to a brutally efficient 61-10 win. Fresno State won’t be able to match the Broncos score for score; if the defense can slow down the vaunted BSU attack they just might stick around for a bit.

Other Games Considered: Nevada @ Colorado State (9/19), San Jose State @ Stanford (9/19)

Week 4: Missouri @ Nevada (September 25^th)

For the second consecutive season the Wolf Pack will host a team from the Big 12, and the thought of beating Missouri is a bit more realistic than beating Texas Tech last season. The Tigers will be working with a new quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) among other newcomers at the skill positions, and while the defense returns First Team All-Big 12 selection Sean Witherspoon (155 tackles) Colin Kaepernick could be in position to make some things happen. Things got out of hand in Columbia last season, with the Tigers blowing out Nevada 69-17. But Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman won’t be on the field in Reno, which gives the home team a puncher’s chance.

Other Games Considered: Fresno State @ Cincinnati (9/26), New Mexico State @ New Mexico (9/26)

Week 5: New Mexico State @ San Diego State (October 3^rd)

Not exactly a marquee game, but it is a matchup between two teams working with new coaching staffs. Brady Hoke and DeWayne Walker hope to change the culture at their respective schools, and a game like this could be a springboard into bigger things. You have to learn how to win before aspiring to win championships. The solutions for both teams go beyond one side of the football; they struggled on both sides of the ball in 2008. This will either be a low-scoring game because both teams struggle offensively or a high-scoring game due to the play of both defenses.

Other Games Considered: UNLV @ Nevada (10/3), Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech (9/30)

Week 6: Louisiana Tech @ Nevada (October 9^th)

The winner becomes Boise State’s biggest challenger while the loser has to hope for some serious help if they’re to remain a part of the championship chase. Nevada’s won the last four meetings, including coming back from a 31-14 deficit to steal a 35-31 decision in Ruston last year. The Bulldogs will need a big day from QB Ross Jenkins, but they won’t need to ask him to match Colin Kaepernick play for play. Both teams have the talent necessary to pose a threat to Boise State; whether or not they get to play the Broncos with something on the line will likely be decided by this game.

Other Game Considered: Fresno State @ Hawaii (10/10)

Week 7: Boise State @ Tulsa (October 14^th)

There could be some serious fireworks in Tulsa when the Broncos step onto the field. Two of the nation’s best offenses in 2008 are poised to rack up points in 2009, even though the Golden Hurricane haven’t decided on a starting quarterback just yet. G.J. Kinne, Jacob Bower and Shavodrick Beaver are all possibilities to start, and all three will likely see snaps. The options available to Tulsa head coach Todd Graham could make preparation a bit more difficult for the Broncos. This could be a game in which the team with the ball last wins.

Other Games Considered: San Jose State @ Fresno State (10/17), Nevada @ Utah State (10/17)

Week 8: Louisiana Tech @ Utah State (October 24^th)

There are some, despite the hiring of a new head coach, who believe that the Aggies can make a move up the WAC standings. But the Bulldogs have won the last four meetings and used a pair of pick-sixes to win 45-38 in Ruston last season. In order for Gary Andersen’s team to move up in the standings the defense needs to improve. Utah State ranked eighth in the conference in both scoring and total defense. Hence the decision to hire the former Utah defensive coordinator, who helped lead the Utes to an undefeated season last year. If the Aggies take care of the football they’ll be in the game throughout.

Other Game Considered: Boise State @ Hawaii (10/24)

Week 9: Bye Week (October 31^st)

Utah State at Fresno State may be the game with the biggest impact on the conference race, and neither has been projected to be a title contender. Boise State hosts a San Jose State team that could match them defensively but still has a number of questions to answer on offense. Hawaii’s trip to Nevada has the ability to be a wild affair, but you have to wonder about the ability of the Warrior defense to stop Colin Kaepernick.

Week 10: Boise State @ Louisiana Tech (November 6^th)

Boise State has won the last seven in the series, and they haven’t been very close either. It’s another case of a team getting into a shootout with the Broncos, only to find that they don’t have the bullets necessary to survive. Provided both teams take care of business in the weeks leading up to this matchup it should be a frenzied atmosphere with a national television audience tuning in. A good individual matchup to watch will be Tech WR Phillip Livas against Boise State CB Kyle Wilson.

Other Games Considered: Nevada @ San Jose State (11/8), Utah State @ Hawaii (11/7)

Week 11: San Jose State @ Utah State (November 14^th)

One of these two teams, if not both, may be in the position of needing wins to become bowl eligible in mid-November. The Spartans have had a tough time winning in Logan, including a loss there in 2005. SJSU won in Logan in 2007, but the final margin was just three points. The Spartans won at home 30-7 last season, holding the Aggies to 190 yards of offense and ten first downs. The lone touchdown for Utah State came with less than two minutes remaining in the game when the Spartan starters were on the bench. Expect a closer meeting in the rematch.

Other Games Considered: Fresno State @ Nevada (11/14), Louisiana Tech @ LSU (11/14)

Week 12: Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State (November 21^st)

The battle of the Bulldogs and the winner will do themselves a favor in the caliber of their bowl game. Daniel Porter gashed Fresno State to the tune of 189 yards in the 38-35 Louisiana Tech win, so he’ll be a focal point for Fresno State’s defensive efforts. Fresno State rushed for just sixty-three yards in the loss while allowing Louisiana Tech to rush for 280. Phillip Livas also had an impact, returning a punt eighty-one yards for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech did practically nothing in the air but the dominant performance on the ground was all they needed. Fresno State had better take care of that if they want to entertain any thoughts of winning.

Other Games Considered: Hawaii @ San Jose State (11/21), Boise State @ Utah State (11/20)

Week 13: Nevada @ Boise State (November 27^th)

The WAC title could be on the line the night after Thanksgiving, and in the case of the Broncos they could be chasing a BCS berth as well. New Mexico State the following weekend won’t pose much of a challenge, so it may all come down to beating a Nevada team that gave them all they wanted in Reno last year. Boise State has won the last seven games in the series, with the majority of those wins being blowouts. Boise State survived last season despite turning the ball over four times, stopping the Wolf Pack late in the fourth quarter to hang onto the 41-34 win. Nevada can compete; whether or not they can compete against Boise State on the road has proven to be another matter in the past.

Other Game Considered: Navy @ Hawaii (11/28)

Week 14: San Jose State @ Louisiana Tech (December 5^th)

Louisiana Tech was dominant in last year’s 21-0 win, holding the Spartans to 148 yards of offense and a paltry six first downs. It’s hard to predict the same, but Dick Tomey’s team has never been known to light up a scoreboard. Kyle Reed was decent last year and the hope this season is that Reed can help lead an offensive resurgence. By the time December 5^th rolls around we’ll know what kind of answer the Spartans have for their offensive issues, and someone could be playing for a bowl berth as well.

Other Games Considered: Wisconsin @ Hawaii (12/5), Fresno State @ Illinois (12/5)

WAC Football Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:15:46 -0700

Boise State looks for a return to the BCS

The last decade has been a rather successful one for the Boise State football program, and the last two seasons have been rather special. Under Chris Petersen Boise State has won thirty-five of thirty nine games, and they’ve also finished the regular season undefeated on two separate occasions. Because Utah was ranked higher in the final BCS poll Boise State ended up taking on TCU in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl instead of going back to the BCS, but that shouldn’t take away from an outstanding campaign. And last season’s 12-1 outfit was expected to be even better in 2009, meaning that the Broncos could be poised to once again crash the BCS party.

Quarterback Kellen Moore had an outstanding rookie season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards and twenty-five touchdowns. Only six starters return on each side of the football, but with just three seniors on the preseason two-deep the Broncos could be poised for a sustained run at the top of the WAC. Boise State finished 2008 ranked second in the WAC in total offense and first in total defense, numbers that should replicate themselves in 2009. Boise State’s credentials are known; a season-opening grudge match with Oregon will determine how realistic their BCS aspirations are.

The better question may be who finishes second behind the Broncos: Fresno State, Louisiana Tech or Nevada? Louisiana Tech improved their win total by three games under Derek Dooley, finishing in a three-way tie for second in 2008. Nine starters return on offense with First Team All-WAC performers Daniel Porter and Phillip Livas (as a punt returner) leading the way. Quarterback Ross Jenkins had a solid campaign for the Bulldogs, who were expected to rely on Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett when the season began.

Jenkins didn’t put up the greatest numbers but he kept his turnovers to a minimum while making sure the ball ended up in the hands of the Bulldogs’ best playmakers. Look for more out of him in 2009. Defensively Louisiana Tech returns seven starters, including leading tackler FS Antonio Baker (115 tackles). Baker and defensive tackle D’Anthony Smith were both First Team All-WAC selections last season and will be expected to make the same impact in 2009. But while Louisiana Tech hosts Boise State they have to visit both Fresno State and Nevada.

Speaking of the Wolf Pack, Chris Ault has the pleasure of welcoming back one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks in junior Colin Kaepernick. As well as Kellen Moore played at Boise State last season it was Kaepernick who was named WAC Offensive Player of the Year, accounting for nearly 4,000 yards of total offense and thirty-nine combined touchdowns.

Seven starters return on both sides of the football for Nevada, and the fact that they get both Bulldogs (Fresno State and Louisiana Tech) in Reno. If the Wolf Pack can improve a defense that ranked sixth in the WAC in total defense, they may be able to go into the regular season finale at Boise State with a shot at the conference title.

There was the question of whether or not Pat Hill would stick around after last season, but he’s back and the Bulldogs are hungry to improve upon a disappointing 2008 season. Things started off pretty well for Fresno State, winning at Rutgers in the season opener. But the defense faltered, finishing seventh in the conference in total defense, and the offense turned the ball over twenty-four times (the defense forced just thirteen turnovers). But they were still able to get to a bowl game, losing to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl.

Fresno State returns eighteen starters with nine being on defense. Defensive end Chris Carter and linebacker Ben Jacobs led the Bulldogs in tackles last season; in fact the top four tacklers from 2008 return. Offensively Fresno State will need a big year from their running backs, and with the top five rushers from 2008 back they’ve got a chance to do just that. With a new quarterback taking over for the graduated Tom Brandstater the running game becomes that much more important. Fresno State gets Boise State and Louisiana Tech at home, a scheduling quirk that could give them an advantage over the other contenders.

The next tier could be just as hard-fought, with San Jose State, Hawaii and maybe even Utah State jockeying for position. Hawaii didn’t end 2008 on the best note, getting blown out in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl by Notre Dame. Head coach Greg McMackin didn’t help matters with some comments made in poor taste at WAC Media Day, and it remains to be seen if the controversy has any impact on the Warriors. Seven starters return on offense, led by a quarterback in Greg Alexander who progressed as the season went on. The defense may have some problems with just two starters returning. Defensive end John Fonoti and middle linebacker Brashton Satele will need to be leaders in every sense of the word if the Warriors are to exceed expectations.

San Jose State’s issues aren’t on the defensive side of the football; the Dick Tomey era has been defined by tough defensive play. But can the Spartans put up enough points to win a game or two they won’t be expected to. SJSU ranked second in the conference in scoring defense, allowing just under twenty-two points per game. Not a bad number…unless the offense is scoring just under twenty points per game (last in the WAC). Seven starters return on each side of the football, and they’ll be tested early with games against USC, Utah and Stanford to start the season.

There’s intrigue in Logan due to the arrival of Gary Andersen, who over the previous five seasons was the defensive coordinator at Utah. The Aggies return seventeen starters, including ten on offense, and the hope is that the change in messenger can bring about a change in results. There’s an awful lot of experience back, led by QB Diondre Borel, C Brennan McFadden and OLB Paul Igboeli, but how quickly can you teach a team not used to winning how to win? If the Aggies prove to be quick studies could surprise some people.

Fighting to stay out of the cellar are perennial doormat Idaho and rebuilding New Mexico State. Rob Akey dropped into a tough situation in Moscow taking over an Idaho program that had been dropped by the wayside by Dennis Erickson when the Arizona State job opened a couple of years ago. When combining the lack of trust the players may have in the coaching situation (and it’s understandable) with a lack of success rebuilding can take a bit longer than anticipated.

The Vandals return seven starters on offense and nine on defense, making up arguably the most experienced team of the Akey era. QB Nathan Enderle will need to cut down on his seventeen interceptions while staying right around the twenty touchdowns number he posted last season, and the top three rushers from last season also return. Free safety Virdell Larkins, who led the Vandals with eighty-two tackles in 2008, returns to lead a defense that was last in the conference in total defense by sixty yards.

New head coach DeWayne Walker has quite the task ahead of him in taking over for the departed Hal Mumme. The Aggies had offensive capabilities due to the system combined with QB Chase Holbrook, but when you can’t stop anyone you’re going to have a hard time winning football games. Hence the decision to hire Walker, who consistently had UCLA in the top half of the Pac-10 in most of the major defensive categories during his time in Los Angeles.

The task is to take a team that returns seven starters on each side of the ball and teach them how to win consistently (NMSU hasn’t finished above .500 since 2002). Junior Jeff Fleming will start the opener at quarterback, which also happens to be their conference opener (Idaho). New Mexico State got in trouble last season due to turnover margin and the fact that they could neither run the football nor stop the run. Look for those aspects to improve under Coach Walker.

Storyline: Can Boise State get back to the BCS? For all the talk about the Mountain West clamoring for an automatic spot, can the success of the Broncos over the last decade be ignored? And don’t expect a cakewalk through the conference either; BSU will visit Fresno State, Hawaii and Louisiana Tech this year. Not to mention non-conference games against Oregon and Tulsa.

Players of the Year: QB Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) and CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

How they’ll finish

1. Boise State

2. Nevada

3. Louisiana Tech

4. Fresno State

5. San Jose State

6. Hawaii

7. Utah State

8. Idaho

9. New Mexico State

Next: WAC Ultimate Schedule

WAC Championship: Preview & Odds

Evan Dorey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 07:27:02 -0700

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Western Athletic Conference

The WAC tournament takes place in Reno, NV, home of the Nevada Wolfpack, with the bottom two teams contesting an opening-round game before the quarterfinals.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Utah St.	100.00%	89.40%	71.39%	41.57%
2	Nevada	100.00%	89.99%	74.64%	44.22%
3	Idaho	100.00%	50.12%	10.97%	2.85%
4	Boise St.	100.00%	52.31%	13.57%	4.07%
5	New Mexico St.	100.00%	47.69%	11.64%	3.30%
6	Louisiana Tech	100.00%	49.88%	10.88%	2.82%
7	San Jose St.	100.00%	10.01%	3.52%	0.59%
8	Hawaii	47.47%	4.79%	1.48%	0.25%
9	Fresno St.	52.53%	5.81%	1.92%	0.35%

Nevada’s home court advantage gives them a serious chance of causing an upset in what would otherwise be a romp for the Aggies. The 3-6 teams don’t show a lot of separation, and any could pull an upset of the top two.

#1 – Utah St. Aggies (27-4, 14-2) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.131

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (1^st Round)

The Aggies looked to be one of the nation’s mid-major darlings when they sat at 24-1 overall, and were fairly well placed in the national rankings, but closing the season 3-3 has taken a bit of the shine of their record. Still, this is a very good team, powered by one of the nation’s best offenses. Utah St. plays a slow offensive style, and does a heck of a job with it, shooting excellent percentages inside and out, and controlling turnovers effectively. The Aggies’ Achilles heel has been defense, as they are only ranked 5rh in the WAC, allowing opponents to shoot well from three and rarely taking the ball away from them.

Players to watch:

6-9 SR Gary Wilkinson, 16.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 59.9 eFG% - The best player on the league’s best team, Wilkinson sits in the top 3 of the league in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage, a dangerous combination of traits for the Aggies’ opponents. He’s great at the free throw line and rarely turns the ball over, so whenever the ball gets into Wilkinson’s hands, it’s a positive for Utah St.

6-1 JR Jared Quayle, 12.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 55.5 eFG% - Quayle is the team’s best three-point threat at 38%, and also chips in with good assist and steal rates. He’s not quite as efficient as Wilkinson, but that’s hardly an insult, and his strong shooting and ability to avoid turnovers means he makes few mistakes.

#2 – Nevada Wolfpack (19-11, 11-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.071

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (2^nd Round)

Nevada beat Utah St. on its floor just a week ago, so a repeat performance in the tournament final would not be a huge surprise from the clear #2 team in the WAC. The Wolfpack have had the best offense outside of Logan, thanks to a low turnover rate and great free-throw shooting. They are one of the nation’s weakest teams at making threes, so they will ideally avoid taking too many. Nevada also boasts the WAC’s best defense, and though it has not been good outside on this side of the ball either, it dominates inside, holding opponents to 42% from inside the arc.

Players to watch:

6-9 FR Luke Babbitt, 16.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 49.9 eFG% - Babbitt has been one of the WAC’s best freshman, and leads the team in both points and rebounds. He’s been a consistent player who has stepped into a leading role on the team with little problem.

6-3 SO Armon Johnson, 15.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, 44.0 eFG% - Johnson is an excellent ball control guard, putting up a very good assist rate and a strong turnover rate as well.

#3 – Idaho Vandals (16-14, 9-7) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.011

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1990 (1^st Round)

There’s a big gap back from the two leading teams to a cluster that sit 3^rd – 6^th, and Idaho is the hottest of these, coming in on a 6-1 record in its last seven games. The Vandals have only been 5^th in efficiency margin, and are average on both ends of the floor. They rarely turn the ball over, and are decent shooters, but are terrible on the offensive glass. Defensively, their malaise is more general , as they are below average in most areas, but their biggest struggles have come defending the three-point shot.

Players to watch:

6-2 JR Mac Hopson, 16.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG% - Hopson has been the best guard in the WAC, leading the conference in assists and steals, and putting up a lot of points as well. He shoots about the same percentage from three and two, and at around 46%, that makes him a very dangerous scorer.

6-6 JR Brandon Wiley, 8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 57.2 eFG% - Wiley is only the team’s fifth scorer, but he leads in rebounding and shoots a good percentage on the relatively few chances he gets.

#4 – Boise St. Broncos (19-11, 9-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.009

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Boise is the third ranked team in the WAC by EM, but lost out on a tiebreaker to in-state rivals Idaho to get the 4^th seed, and a potential semifinal against Utah St. The Broncos are the WAC’s fastest paced team, and take the ball inside with good success, over 50% on two-point shots. They don’t make a lot of threes, however, and are poor offensive rebounders who rarely get to the foul line. The Bronco defense has been better, holding opponents to fairly low percentages, though it forces few turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-7 SR Mark Sanchez, 12.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 53.1 eFG% - Sanchez leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is a quality inside shooter who went through a serious lull in mid-January, but has come back in the last couple of weeks.

6-9 JR Kurt Cunningham, 9.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 54.3 eFG% - Cunningham is a player who would benefit a lot from getting more playing time, as he’s been spectacular when he’s had chances, leading the WAC in field goal percentage at 67%, and is a good rebounder. He has had a fair amount of foul trouble, though, and will need to cut down on that to get those extra minutes.

#5 – New Mexico St. Aggies (16-14, 9-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.001

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

New Mexico St. has had an up-and-down season, but earned a spot right in the middle of the WAC with a very good offense and one of the conference’s worst defenses. The Aggies are excellent three point shooters who make relatively few mistakes on the offensive end, but struggle to defend the inside, crushed on the boards and not defending shots particularly well.

Players to watch:

6-4 SO Jahmar Young, 18.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 50.4 eFG% - Young is the conference’s leading scorer, but unlike what you might expect, he doesn’t have a dominant role in the Aggie offense. Instead, he’s a deadly shooter on a fairly high number of attempts, 44% from behind the arc and over 80% from the free throw line, and rarely turns the ball over.

6-6 SO Wendell McKines, 12.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 51.7 eFG% - McKines is the conference’s leading rebounder, and the only WAC player to average a double-double, if only barely. He’s a pretty solid scorer, but his game depends on his strong showings on the glass.

#6 – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (14-17, 6-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.011

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1991 (1^st Round)

If you’re looking for an outside shot to make some noise in Reno, it just might be the Bulldogs, who have been somewhat better than their record, and should have a serious chance against Idaho in the quarters, and against Nevada, a team they beat on the road, in the semis. Louisiana Tech has had one of the WAC’s best defenses, forcing a lot of turnovers and giving opponents a lot of trouble behind the arc. It also shoots well from long-distance, but turns the ball over quite often and has been poor at the free throw line.

Players to watch:

6-11 JR Magnum Rolle, 12.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 53.2 eFG% - The Bahamian big man has dominated on the glass and is a good shot-blocker, and shoots a decent percentage for an inside player.

6-5 FR Kyle Gibson, 14.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 55.1 eFG% - Gibson is the team’s best three-point shooter at 43%, and has been on fire over the last month, averaging nearly 20 points since the start of February.

#7 – San Jose St. Spartans (13-16, 6-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.069

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Now, as we head down to the bottom three teams, there is a clear separation in the efficiency margin between this group and the teams above. The Spartans have had the conference’s worst defense, allowing opponents to shoot a good percentage and giving them a lot of chances by rarely getting them to cough up the ball. They’ve been especially vulnerable from three, giving up more than 40% from the field. The same problem on the outside occurs on the offensive end, as they make a pretty low percentage of long-distance attempts. The good news in that respect is that they attempt very few threes, tending to stick to the inside, where they’ve been better, and that they get a lot of extra chances from the offensive glass.

Players to watch:

6-9 JR Chris Oakes, 8.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 58.2 eFG% - Oakes is a good player who just needs to take a bigger role on the offensive end to really break through. He’s a great rebounder who puts up good shot-blocking numbers and shoots an excellent percentage, but is only 5^th on the team in scoring because he takes few attempts.

6-9 JR C.J. Webster, 11.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 49.6 eFG% - Webster is another solid inside player who shoots effectively and has done well on the glass.

#8 – Hawaii Warriors (13-16, 5-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.062

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2002 (1^st Round)

The Warriors have had the worst offense in the WAC, and while they’ve been good defensively, it just hasn’t been enough to make up for their struggles with the ball. They are one of the country’s worst three-point shooting teams, and while they do minimize this by focusing on getting the ball inside, they haven’t been all that good there either. The Warriors do have offensive strengths, as they are among the national elite in offensive rebounding and in getting to the free throw line. Defensively, Hawaii forces a lot of turnovers, and holds opponents pretty well inside, but allows a high enough percentage on three-pointers to cause itself trouble.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Roderick Flemings, 16.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 49.3 eFG% - Flemings has led the WAC in minutes played, and is a critical player for Hawaii’s offensive chances, both the most important and most efficient man on the team. He’s a good inside scorer who does pretty well at the free throw line and on the offensive glass.

6-9 JR Bill Amis, 10.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 47.7 eFG% - Amis is a very good rebounder and shot-blocker, but his offensive game could use some work, his percentage is lower than you’d like from a 6-9 player.

#9 – Fresno St. Bulldogs (12-20, 3-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.055

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (2^nd Round)

Fresno has been fairly unlucky, as it is last ranked in the standings, but 7^th in efficiency margin. It has been a fairly poor shooting team that is at its best on the defensive perimeter, holding opponents to just 31% from behind the arc. The Bulldogs do give up a lot of points inside, and have struggled on the glass at both ends.

Players to watch:

6-7 FR Paul George, 14.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 56.0 eFG% - George has been an excellent freshman, but after a spectacular start has cooled down a little in the final month of the season. He’s a strong three-point shooter who also leads the team in rebounds and steals.

6-9 JR Sylvester Seay, 15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 51.8 eFG% - Seay is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer, a good inside shooter and shot-blocker who can also step out and hit threes, though not as well as George.

My statistical all-WAC team:

Idaho JR G Mac Hopson, 16.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG%

Utah St. JR G Jared Quayle, 12.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 55.5 eFG%

New Mexico St. SO G Jahmar Young, 18.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 50.4 eFG%

Utah St. SR F Gary Wilkinson, 16.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 59.9 eFG%

Fresno St. FR F Paul George, 14.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 56.0 eFG%

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