UIC

Non-BCS Top 25: UIC Debuts, La Salle Nears

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 18:17:09 -0800

The Non-BCS Top 25 is a CollegeHoops.net original, copied by multiple major outlets. As a weekly companion to our popular CHN Top 50 ranking, it takes an in-depth look into the underrated universe of teams outside of the big six. The original Non-BCS ranking.

Non-BCS Top 25: December 16th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	New Mexico	11-0	1
2	Gonzaga	10-1	2
3	Creighton	10-1	3
4	San Diego St	8-1	4
5	UNLV	8-1	5
6	Butler	8-2	14
7	Wichita St	9-1*	6
8	Murray St	8-1	7
9	Wyoming	10-0	9
10	Bucknell	9-1	10
11	Temple	7-1	11
12	VCU	7-3	13
13	Memphis	6-3*	8
14	Xavier	7-2	15
15	Colorado St	6-2	18
16	St. Mary's	7-2	19
17	Belmont	7-3*	16

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last
18	Boise St	7-2	20
19	Illinois-Chicago	9-1	NA(+5)
20	St. Joseph's	5-3*	12
21	Santa Clara	8-2	21
22	Saint Louis	6-3	22
23	Dayton	8-2	24
24	Charlotte	10-1*	23
25	Ohio	7-3*	17

last = last week's ranking

* = Losses this week

Next 5: Utah St (6-1), Illinois St (7-3), Southern Miss (7-3), BYU (7-3), MTSU (7-3*)

Further 5: Davidson (6-4), George Mason (6-4), CS Northridge (7-3), SMU (8-2*), La Salle (6-2)

Out: Akron (4-4**)

Agree/Disagree? Post your thoughts below or join us @collegehoopsnet

Check out last week's Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking

Horizon League First Round: Predictions & Poll

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 07:37:46 -0800

The higher seed hosts Horizon League first round games. The top 2 seeds (Cleveland St & Valpo) have a bye.

#8 Wright State (13-18, 7-11) at #5 Butler (18-13, 11-7)

7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 6 – Butler 63-62*; Feb. 2 – Butler 64-53. RPI: Butler 117; Wright State 212. Analysis: The Horizon doesn’t want to see Butler start rolling. Line: Butler -11. Pick: Butler 68, Wright State 49.

#10 Loyola (7-22, 1-17) at #3 Detroit (18-13, 11-7)

7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Detroit 65-54*; Jan. 25 – Detroit 67-52. RPI: Detroit 148; Loyola 306. Analysis: The Titans have as much talent as anyone in the Horizon. They’ll play like it, at least for one round. Line: Detroit -14. Pick: Detroit 78, Loyola 53.

#7 Green Bay (15-14, 10-8) at #6 Youngstown State (15-10, 10-8)

7:05 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Youngstown 77-47; Feb. 14 – Green Bay 71-65. RPI: Youngstown 173, Green Bay 143. Analysis: The two teams have identical records, but the Penguins have the better team. Line: Youngstown State -2. Pick: Youngstown State 72, Green Bay 57.

#9 Illinois-Chicago (7-22, 1-17) at #4 Milwaukee (19-12, 11-7)

8 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Milwaukee 73-71 (OT); Feb. 23 – Milwaukee 72-61*. RPI: Milwaukee 119, Illinois-Chicago 296. Analysis: After losing 4 of 5 from Jan. 28-Feb. 12, the Panthers are rolling again with four straight wins. Line: Milwaukee -14. Pick: Milwaukee 75, Illinois-Chicago 54.

*Road win

College Hoops Saturday Recap: Selby to the Rescue

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 19 Dec 2010 00:42:31 -0800

The plan for head coach Bill Self was to bring along freshman guard Josh Selby, who missed nine games due to NCAA suspension, slowly against USC on Saturday. The Baltimore native didn't enter the game until after the first television timeout, but it became apparent quite early what his addition means to their attack. And by the end of the game Selby became the difference between Kansas extending their home win streak to 65 games and having to start a new streak. The phenom led the way with 21 points and knocked down the game-winning three-pointer with 26 seconds remaining to move Kansas to 10-0 on the season by a final score of 70-68 (a Tyrel Reed free throw provided the final score). Overall the Jayhawks outscored the Trojans 42-20 in bench points and that ended up being the difference on Saturday afternoon.

"He [Selby] bailed us out, he saved us - he doesn't know what he is doing out there, but he still comes away with 21 points and was our best offensive player," said Coach Self of his freshman. "I'm happy for him, and we played like we practiced - and we haven't practiced well of late - but we did play with some energy. It's nice to have a guy who wants the ball in that kind of situation, and it is nice to know that (Selby) is that kind of player."

That's the difference many expected Selby to have once eligible, but few could have predicted that his number would be called in his first game. USC, who was working Fordham transfer Jio Fontan into the fold, struggled in the first half as they shot just 29.2% from the field and their reserves were outscored 20-3. Fontan scored 15 points for the game but had five turnovers to go with a pair of assists, and Donte Smith led four Trojans in double figures with 20 off the bench. USC isn't a deep team by any stretch of the imagination and when faced with an opponent the caliber of Kansas, Kevin O'Neill's team will have a tough time winning when Bryce and Maurice Jones (not related) combine to shoot 0-for-9 from the field. USC did a far better job in the second half of getting Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stepheson quality opportunities to score, and as a result USC shot 59.3% from the field and scored 48 points in the final twenty minutes.

"We were a little off kilter the first half. It was hard for Jio (Fontan) coming back," said Coach O'Neill. "We didn't have a lot of rhythm in the first half, but the second half we did a better job getting the ball into Nick (Nikola Vucevic). We also had some good performances from our other guys."

But while USC may have shown some glimpses of a team that could round into a top four team in the Pac-10, Saturday was about the addition of Selby to a team that's already a Final Four contender. The freshman had some hiccups, turning the ball over four times, but as he gets more comfortable with his teammates in game situations his role will expand. Josh is the one player in the Kansas backcourt rotation who can pressure defenses with his ability to make plays, an attribute that will come in handy when things break down late in the shot clock as well at the end of games. But does this push Kansas ahead of Duke in terms of the favorite to win the national title?

Not so fast, even with Kyrie Irving possibly out for the remainder of the season for the Blue Devils. Neither of the Morris twins, both of whom finished with 11 points, shot well from the field and the same goes for Tyshawn Taylor (2-7 FG, 7 points, 6 turnovers). But this team has depth, even with Mario Little indefinitely suspended, meaning that they have a lot of doors to open when looking for solutions and that will serve them well as the season wears on.
*Quotes courtesy of University of Kansas Athletics*

Other Key Happenings

1. What should we make of Illinois right now?
While this question may not be as intensive for Bruce Weber's team as it may be for a Tennessee squad that lost to Oakland and Charlotte this week, it's definitely one to discuss given the Illini's sluggish start against UIC at the United Center. But while a second-half surge put Illinois up eight in the second half all it did was delay the inevitable as Darrin Williams (a somewhat ironic situation given the role Deron Williams played in Illinois basketball history) made big plays down the stretch to give UIC the 57-54 win. Williams scored five points in the final 1:10 of the game while Robo Kreps led the Flames with 15 points, and Illinois shot just 32.7% from the field (4-for-17 from three) in dropping to 10-2 on the season.

The one question some have had about Illinois in regards to whether or not they can win the Big Ten involved mental focus because with players such as Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale and so on, the talent and experience is most certainly there. But to go into the first media timeout down 14-5 to a team you should beat isn't the best way to go about taking care of business. In the second half Illinois attempted 29 field goals to UIC's 17, but they made just nine shots to UIC's eight. That didn't get the job done on Saturday, nor will it once the Illini get into Big Ten play and take on the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin just to name three of the expected contenders. Keep an eye on Illinois' energy early in the "Braggin' Rights" game vs. Missouri next week.

2. Texas picks up the win over North Carolina in Greensboro.
While Texas does have a win over Illinois and a good showing against Pitt on its resume Rick Barnes' team also has a listless effort at USC to claim as well, meaning that Saturday's game against North Carolina was an important one. The same can be said for the Tar Heels, who have a 1-2 showing in Puerto Rico and a beating at Illinois on their resume to date. So when Cory Joseph knocked down a tough turnaround jumper from the top of the key with 1.4 seconds remaining the Longhorns had a solid "neutral" court victory against a team showing signs of getting better. Joseph scored 21 points while Jordan Hamilton led the Longhorns with 24 points in one of his most composed offensive performances. The sophomore from Los Angeles can most certainly knock down shots, but when he's taking quality shots Hamilton (and by extension Texas) become that much more dangerous.

North Carolina got into trouble early in the first half as Texas went on a 15-4 run over a five minute stretch to go up 26-16 with 8:30 to go in the half. But thanks to their bench, especially freshman point guard Kendall Marshall, UNC worked their way back into the lead 33-32 at the half. In comparing Marshall and incumbent Larry Drew II it was the freshman who played better against Texas in ten fewer minutes of action. Four Tar Heels finished in double figures with Dexter Strickland's 18 leading the way but the game came down to who could make the final play and that was Joseph. Texas has the talent to be a contender in the Big 12 as they're deep at just about every position on the floor, but they'll need to continue to make sound decisions with the basketball if they're to fulfill that promise. Saturday's win could be a springboard of sorts for this young group.

3. No Steven Gray no matter for Gonzaga, who grabs a big win over (9) Baylor in Dallas.
If you were told that Steven Gray (back spasms) and Elias Harris (fouled out) would combine to score ten points against a Top 10 team, chances are the conclusion would be that Mark Few's team gets blown out. But a Kelly Olynyk three-pointer with 1:46 remaining put the Zags up for good, and Robert Sacre's 17 points led the way in a 68-64 victory in Dallas. And in a crucial development for Gonzaga the bench came up big, outscoring Baylor's reserves 32-6 with Marquise Carter (12 points), Sam Dower (10 points) and Olynyk (7 points) leading the way. "Credit Gonzaga for really coming up big [and] hitting shots," said Baylor head coach Scott Drew. "I think you look at Carter, the two big 3s and [Olynyk] hitting his big three those were the differences in the game."

Perry Jones III led Baylor with 19 points but when you have an assist-to-turnover ratio of five assists to seventeen turnovers you're going to get into trouble even if Gonzaga can convert those miscues into only six points. Baylor made just two of twelve from beyond the arc and shot 36.7% from the field for the game, two areas that helped nullify 33 free throws (26 made). But this one is all about Gonzaga, a team that entered the game without a marquee victory to their credit and needed something to hang their hat on as 2010 comes to a close. And with their best non-conference games remaining likely being Xavier at the end of this month and Memphis in early February this may have been their lone shot to pick up a win against a team expected to be in the Final Four conversation come March. If the ancillary parts like Carter, Dower and Olynyk can continue to produce look for Gonzaga to approach the level we're accustomed to seeing them perform at.
*quote courtesy of Baylor Athletics*

UCLA beats BYU to bolster their resume
Florida uses defense to beat Kansas State

Top Three Games

1. St. Bonaventure 112, Ohio 107 (4 OT) A wild one took place in Olean on Saturday afternoon as the Bonnies held off the Bobcats. Andrew Nicholson led all scorers with 44 points and 12 rebounds while Ohio's D.J. Cooper countered with 43 points, 13 assists, eight rebounds and eight steals.

2. (22) Texas 78, North Carolina 76

3. (3) Kansas 70, USC 68

Three Notable Performances

1. G D.J. Cooper (Ohio) and C Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) See above.

2. F Jared Sullinger (Ohio State) The freshman could be well on his way to All-America status, going for 30 points and 19 rebounds in the Buckeyes' 79-57 win over South Carolina.

3. F Mike Glover (Iona) 25 points and 16 rebounds in the Gaels' 83-77 loss at (5) Syracuse, Glover's sixth consecutive double-double.

Jon Teitel's Coaches Interview Series: UIC's Jimmy Collins

Jon Teitel — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 22:11:42 -0700

In the most recent installment in his coaches interview series, CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Jimmy Collins, who recently retired after fourteen seasons in charge at Illinois-Chicago. Coach Collins led the Flames to three NCAA Tournament appearances during his time in the Windy City.

Jon Teitel: As a guard at New Mexico State you averaged 20.1 ppg for your career and set a school record for points in a game with 42. What made you such a great scorer, and was the record-setting game it just one of those scenarios where every shot you put up seemed to go in because you were "in the zone"?
Jimmy Collins: The only way you could get three points back then was the old-fashioned way, as the three-point line did not exist yet. All players who have career nights know when they are hot; the basket seems to swell up. My teammates knew to feed me that night, and I had no problem shooting it.

JT: As a senior you were named an All-American. What did it mean to you to win such an outstanding individual honor, and did you feel like you were one of the best players in the country?
JC: Not initially. I am from Syracuse, and played a lot of summer games against the great Dave Bing. I had an awkward shot, as it would come off high above my head. By my senior year I felt that nobody could guard me, although there were a lot of other great players around the country (Pete Maravich, Rick Mount, etc.).

1970 NCAA Tournament
JT: Your team scored a tourney-school record 101 points in a win over Rice. Was that the best offensive performance you have ever been a part of, and did you feel it gave you the momentum to make a deep tourney run?
JC: Rice had two guards who were rated very high, and when we picked up the newspaper they were only talking about those two guys; that fired up our entire team. We tried to run the whole game, which was successful because Rice was a half-court team.

JT: You had a nine-point win over Drake. What was the mood of the team like heading into the game against UCLA?
JC: I remember that we were down in that game, and our coach started isolating me after I made a couple of shots, which was not our original game plan. It was raining really hard after that game, but my teammates and I were just excited that we were moving on to the semis.

JT: You scored a tourney-school record 28 points in a loss to eventual national champion UCLA (whose starting five combined to score 91 of their 93 PTS) and were named to the All-Tournament team. How good was UCLA, and how were you able to play your best against the best?
JC: We really thought we could beat UCLA. We stayed up all night talking about it, but a few plays into the game our big guy Sam Lacey sprained his ankle. UCLA had a bunch of great big men (Steve Patterson/Curtis Rowe/Sidney Wicks), which took away a lot of our momentum. I got on a hot streak again, and once they doubled me we started getting the ball to Charlie Criss, who got on a hot streak of his own. Patterson scored a lot of points, and he could also rebound very well.

JT: You had a six-point win over St. Bonaventure in the consolation game after Bob Lanier had gotten injured earlier in the tourney. Do you think you still would have won if Lanier was healthy?
JC: We wanted to play everyone at full-strength, as we thought we were the best team in the country that year. I think that we could have won even if they had Lanier.

JT: In the summer of 1970 you were drafted 11th overall by Chicago (7 spots ahead of Calvin Murphy), and later played for the ABA's Carolina Cougars. Did you see that as a validation of your college career, or the realization of a lifelong dream of reaching the NBA?
JC: A little of both, but not "lifelong", as my original dream was just to go to college and graduate. I had agents start to call me before my senior year, which is when I 1st realized that I might be able to play in the pros. I knew I was a great college scorer, but my main focus was to win ball games so that we would go as far as we possibly could. At that time I thought that a guard of my size did not have a chance, as guys like Jerry West/Oscar Robertson were 6'3"/6'4" and very strong/fast.

JT: After retiring from pro basketball you took several years off to start a trucking business and become a probation officer. Why did you leave basketball, and which job did you like more?
JC: I started having knee injuries, and back then they cut into you instead of just scoping it! I had a friend approach me about going into the trucking business as owners/operators, and we had the money, so we gave it a shot. I had even less time to spend with my family after starting the business, which was tough. I had a politically-connected friend who got me into the probation department, which was a challenging job. It became a bit negative to see young people going into and out of jail all the time.

JT: You were an assistant under legendary head coach Lou Henson at Illinois. What made him such a great coach, and what was the most important thing you learned from him?
JC: He taught me about dedication and discipline, as he was a stickler for those two things. He prepared a team better than anyone I know, so teams could never throw something at us that we were not ready for. He was a great gentleman, and I have yet to ever hear him curse. He would always tell you when you were contributing to helping the team win, but also tell you when you were totally off-base.

JT: In 1988 Iowa assistant coach Bruce Pearl accused you of bribing top high school basketball prospect Deon Thomas to come to Illinois, but the NCAA found both you and Thomas innocent. How did it feel to be accused, and how did it feel to be vindicated?
JC: It felt great to be vindicated. When I first heard the accusation I thought the truth would come out very quickly, but it took almost 2 years to complete the investigation. It was one of the worst points of my life; it is easy to get in trouble, but very hard to get out of it. There were a lot of lies that were told. Current SEC commissioner Mike Slive was hired as an independent investigator, and there were former FBI people asking a lot of questions. At the end of the investigation they announced that they could not find any evidence of wrongdoing, but also said that it did not mean it did not happen.

1989 NCAA Tournament
JT: You got a six-points win over #16-seed McNeese State. How close did you come to becoming the first #1-seed to ever lose in the first round, and how were you able to hang on for the win?
JC: Every team in the tourney thinks they are the best, so they will not give you anything. Lou did a great job of preparing us for each game.

JT: Sean Higgins got a rebound and made the put-back with two seconds left to clinch a two-point win by eventual national champion Michigan. How devastating was Higgins' shot, and what was the reaction like in your locker room afterwards?
JC: We had beaten Michigan by twenty points in Ann Arbor the last time we played them. I still think they should have called a foul on Higgins for pushing Nick Anderson in order to get the rebound, but stuff happens.

JT: In 1997 in your very first first year at UIC your team started 1-8, then turned it around and made it to the MCC tourney title game before a one-point loss to Butler. Gow were you able to turn it around, and how close did you come to winning the title?
JC: When my staff and I came in, we brought in about five players and had to get them playing together with the guys who were already there. Fortunately, we had a young man named Bryant Lowe, who was one of the toughest players I ever coached. Bryant stood up at a meeting and challenged everyone to play together, and if not, he was going to settle it with fisticuffs! We finally were able to pull out a close game after the 1-8 start, and then we started to become a team. We spent a lot of time off the court together, just bonding through activities like bowling. We had an opportunity to beat Butler, but our final shot hung on the rim forever before falling off. However, that game gave us momentum going into the next year. I told the players to take a few weeks off to concentrate on their studies, but after a few days they got back in the weight room and on the practice court.

JT: What are your memories of the 1998 NCAA tourney, the first tourney game in school history (DeMarco Johnson had 30 points and 15 rebounds in a Charlotte victory)?
JC: I remember Johnson hurting us, but they had a guard named Diego Guevara who could shoot the lights out. Every time that Guevara made a shot, he would blow a kiss to his girlfriend; if one of my guys had done that sort of showboating, I would have sat them right down. I talked to Coach Melvin Watkins after the game, and he said he was impressed by our team. We thought we could beat Charlotte, but they had a big crowd of supporters even though the game took place in Hartford. Ed Hightower was one of the refs, and I felt that we did not get the benefit of some calls because of all the Charlotte supporters.

JT: In 1999 Curtis Granderson enrolled at UIC as a freshman. How close did he come to playing basketball for you, and how good do you think he would have been?
JC: I made overtures to Curtis, and also talked to his baseball coach. Curtis' dad said that he would succeed in whatever he put his mind to, and he was very athletic; he could just walk up to the rim and dunk a basketball. As luck would have it, the baseball team started practice before we did, so he got a baseball scholarship and the rest is history.

JT: What are your memories of the 2002 NCAA tourney (Aaron McGhee had 26 points and 12 rebounds in an 8-PT Oklahoma win)?
JC: McGhee is from Chicago, and that might have been his best game all year. That is another game that if the ball had bounced our way a few more times, I think we could have won it. Their bench and size just overwhelmed us, but we played hard and played together. We played them in Dallas, and they had 15,000 fans there, but unless the fans come out on the court and start making baskets, then you cannot worry about them.

JT: What are your memories of the 2004 NCAA tourney (Wayne Simien had 13 points and nine rebounds in a Kansas victory)?
JC: We played them in Kansas City, so they had a nice crowd on hand. Bill Self talked about how our Chicago kids were going to play very physical, despite that fact that my PF was only 6'4"! The thing I remember the most is that I wore a pair of burgundy shoes, and when I asked the ref about a call, he asked me where I bought my shoes! That always stuck with me, as I thought it was very unprofessional.

JT: You missed the final 19 games of the 2007 season due to an abdominal aortic aneurysm, and your team finished under .500 for the first time since 2001. Do you think that your team lost its focus after you went out, and how were you able to come back healthy the following year?
JC: Players get accustomed to doing certain things a certain way, so it certainly hurt when I had to miss half the season. We had a split team with guys who preached things that I did not want preached. I just wanted guys who played together and stuck together, but they were not doing that even before my injury.

JT: You are co-chairman of the Chicago Special Olympics. Why did you decide to get involved with the Special Olympics, and what have you gotten out of it?
JC: Those kids come out and give it their all, which gives me a great understanding of the word "competition". The agony of defeat affects people the same way regardless of whether they have a disability. I got into it because I am partial to people who have struggled, as I have struggled myself. I went into Soldier Field one day to watch the kids compete, and the love I felt caused me to ask someone how I could get involved. It is very rewarding because they love what they are doing and never quit or back down.

Collins is also on Jon's list of best coaches in Horizon League history

Butler: Tony Hinkle (1926-1970) 558-394, one NCAA Tournament appearance, three conference titles
Cleveland State: Kevin Mackey (1983-1990) 142-69, one NCAA Tournament appearance, two conference titles, two-time conference Coach of the Year
Detroit: Bob Calihan (1948-1969) 306-237, one NCAA Tournament appearance
Green Bay: Dick Bennett (1985-1995) 187-109, three NCAA Tournament appearances, two conference titles, two-time conference Coach of the Year
Illinois-Chicago: Jimmy Collins (1996-2010) 218-208, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one conference title, one-time conference Coach of the Year
Loyola-Chicago: George Ireland (1951-1975) 318-255, four NCAA Tournament appearances, two conference titles, one NCAA title
Milwaukee: Rob Jeter (2005-present) 82-75, one NCAA Tournament appearance, one conference title
Valparaiso: Homer Drew (1988-2002, 2003-present) 333-276, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, eight conference titles, four-time conference Coach of the Year
Wright State: Ralph Underhill (1978-1996) 356-162, one NCAA Tournament appearance, one conference title, one Division II national title, one-time national Coach of the Year
Youngstown State: Mike Rice, Sr. (1982-1987) 75-67

Poll: Who Will be the Next Coach Fired?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 08:39:55 -0800

Horizon League Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:45:03 -0800

Butler, with legitimate Elite Eight aspirations, should be the dominant force in the Horizon. An infusion of Juco talent and returning injured players should help the quality of play throughout the league.

Conference Rank: 12th

10 year average: 15th

Conference Page

All-Horizon Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Shelvin Mack	Butler	So
G	Norris Cole	Cleveland St	Jr
G	Vaughn Duggins	Wright St	Jr
G/F	Gordon Hayward	Butler	So
F	Matt Howard	Butler	Jr

Player of the Year - Gordon Hayward Freshman of the Year - Seth Evans (Green Bay)
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
CHN All-Americans Gordon Hayward Mid-Major All-Americans Gordon Hayward (1st Team) Matt Howard (1st)		Best Scorer: Gordon Hayward Best Rebounder: Matt Howard Best Passer: Spencer Stewart

Horizon League Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

11	Butler	Horizon	1	NCAA
57	Wright State	Horizon	2	NIT
87	UWM	Horizon	3	CBI/CIT
111	Green Bay	Horizon	4	CBI/CIT
152	Cleveland St	Horizon	5
177	Valparaiso	Horizon	6
200	Illinois Chicago	Horizon	7
231	Detroit	Horizon	8
281	Youngstown St	Horizon	9
310	Loyola Ill	Horizon	10

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the HL?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the Horizon League?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:04:57 -0700

Horizon League Tournament: Preview & Predictions

Evan Dorey — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 19:47:26 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, giving a brief statistical review and presenting the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Horizon League Championship

The Horizon league utilizes a two-round bye, in which the bottom 8 teams battle for spots in the semifinals, where the top 2 seeds are waiting for them. First round games are hosted at campus sites, the quarters and semis are in the #1 seeds’ building, and the highest remaining seed hosts the final.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Butler	100.00%	100.00%	86.12%	68.48%
2	Green Bay	100.00%	100.00%	56.98%	16.28%
3	Cleveland St.	97.12%	81.56%	40.18%	11.28%
4	Wright St.	92.77%	61.28%	10.15%	3.04%
5	Milwaukee	90.81%	35.86%	3.66%	0.74%
6	Youngstown St.	60.07%	9.91%	1.43%	0.08%
7	Illinois Chicago	39.93%	7.87%	1.38%	0.09%
8	Loyola Chicago	9.19%	1.13%	0.02%	0.00%
9	Valparaiso	7.23%	1.73%	0.05%	0.00%
10	Detroit	2.88%	0.66%	0.03%	0.00%

Only two teams look to have any legitimate shot of stopping Butler and causing consternation across the bubble, Green Bay and Cleveland St. There’s also a pretty clear drop-off below the #5 seed, with the bottom five having little chance to even make the final.

#1 – Butler Bulldogs (25-4, 15-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.153

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (2^nd Round)

There’s no Horizon team that’s as complete as the Bulldogs, who have the conference’s best defense and one of its best attacks. They make more than 50% of their shots from inside the arc, and get a lot of points from the free throw line, but turn the ball over more than a ‘traditional’ Butler team. Butler’s defense is spectacular at stopping shots, holding opponents to 36% from the field and 30% from three.

Players to watch:

6-8 FR Gordon Hayward, 13.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 61.7 eFG% - Hayward has been one of the nation’s best freshmen, and looks like the kind of player power conference programs will be kicking themselves over the years to come. He doesn’t lead Butler in scoring or rebounding, but is easily the team’s most efficient option, a good inside guy who shoots 46% from behind the arc and over 80% from the free throw line. He’s also a solid defender, averaging better than a block and a steal, and should be a player to watch throughout the month of March.

6-8 SO Matt Howard, 14.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 55.6 eFG% - Another key to Butler’s successful season, Howard is a good inside scorer who does his best work at the free throw line; he’s 7^th in the nation in free throw rate, and hits them at a 77% clip. He’s also the team’s best rebounder, and one of the Horizon’s best shot blockers.

#2 – Green Bay Phoenix (22-9, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.103

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Green Bay is as good a shooting team as you’ll find in the country, the only team in the top 5 nationally in both three-point and free-throw shooting. It’s also pretty solid inside, and manages to hold on to the ball, all of which adds up to the conference’s best offense. When the Phoenix get on a roll, they can put up some frightening offensive numbers, which is good, because their defense hasn’t been particularly strong. They are the worst team in the Horizon on the defensive glass, and are only average at defending shots, so they need all the points they can get.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Ryan Tillema, 17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG,60.3 eFG% - Tillema missed the first month of the season, and despite starting only 5 games, he leads the Horizon in scoring. He’s a 44% three-point shooter, and is an excellent ball control guard, turning the ball over just 30 times all season.

6-4 JR Troy Cotton, 12.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 58.4 eFG% - Cotton is the Phoenix’s most-frequent three-point shooter, and at 42% he’s a very dangerous long-distance option. Like Tillema, he doesn’t turn the ball over much, and is an incredibly efficient offensive player.

#3 – Cleveland St. Vikings (21-10, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.093

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1986 (Sweet Sixteen)

The Vikings’ season may best be remembered for some close finishes, falling on a buzzer-beating three against Butler and winning on a miraculous half-court shot at Syracuse. An eight-game winning streak towards the close of the conference season got them into the battle for a second seed, but they couldn’t clinch it, forcing them to play two extra games. The Vikings are the most inside-oriented team in the tournament, a good thing, given their poor three point shooting. They also struggle to defend the outside shot, but make up for it by leading the league in shot-blocking and forcing turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-5, SR J’Nathan Bullock, 15.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 47.7 eFG% - Bullock is a critical player for the Vikings, leading them in both scoring and rebounding. He’s a solid player who does a lot well, but doesn’t have any particular area where he’s a dominant force. His

6-3, SR Cedric Jackson, 9.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.4 APG, 3.0 SPG, 41.3 eFG% - Almost all of Jackson’s value comes when he’s not shooting the ball, and the Vikings should try to avoid possessions ending in his hands. He makes up for his shooting by leading the conference in assists and steals, while also being a good rebounder.

#4 – Wright St. Raiders (18-12, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.068

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

Wright St. had an 0-6 start to the season, including dropping its first two conference games, but rebounded to reach a 7-3 conference record before picking up a few tough losses down the stretch. The Raiders defend better than any non-Butler team in the HL, holding opponents below 38% from the field, and forcing turnovers at an impressive rate. They play at a pretty slow pace, and are somewhat vulnerable to the three, but their problems tend to come from the offensive end. Wright St. simply doesn’t make many shots, just 41% from the field, and compounds that by getting very few of their misses back. It does manage to get shots up, as it rarely turns it over, but that doesn’t end up producing a lot of points.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Cory Cooperwood, 9.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 49.0 eFG% - Cooperwood’s stats fit Wright St.’s profile really well: he’s only a decent scorer by many team’s standards, but he’s the Raiders’ most efficient offensive player. He’s also an effective defender, recording good block and steal rates, and is easily the Raiders’ best rebounder.

6-5 JR Todd Brown, 11.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 49.5 eFG% - Brown plays more minutes than any other Raider, and is the only serious three-point threat on the team, a 43% shooter from behind the arc. 39% from two, though, means he that he should try and stick to the outside shot.

#5 – Milwaukee Panthers (16-13, 11-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.024

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (2^nd Round)

Milwaukee looked to be serious challengers for the conference title when it sat at 7-1 in mid-January, but it closed the season with a 4-6 record, and was unable to parlay a big win over Butler into a top 4 seed. The Panthers shoot a terrible percentage from the field, but have put together a decent offense anyways. They rebound well and take a lot of threes, which they make at a decent clip. Their performance inside the arc is their Achilles heel, as they hit just 43% of inside shots. Defensively, Milwaukee is again around league average, and unlike the offense, it is stronger inside than outside. It is also one of the nation’s weakest teams at forcing turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR James Eayrs, 11.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 50.6 eFG% - One of my favorite moments of the season was watching ‘Big Lumber’ hit the game-tying three against Green Bay, a game that really started an uptick in his minutes and his level of play. He’s 6-7, 340 pounds, and an solid three-point shooter, not the most common sight. He’s good on the glass and at the free throw line, but his biggest asset is his play behind the arc.

6-3 SR Avery Smith, 11.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 42.9 eFG% - Smith does just about everything but make shots, leading the team in assists and steals and sitting second in scoring and rebounds. His problem is his shooting percentages, which are terrible, 39% overall and just 29% from behind the arc.

#6 – Youngstown St. Penguins (11-18, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.055

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Outside of a four-game stretch that saw it beat both Chicago schools and both Wisconsin schools, Youngstown has struggled to find any consistency, getting some very nice wins, but dropping a lot of games against the bottom teams in the league as well. The Penguins are good three point shooters, but most of their offense comes from inside the arc. They also do quite poorly on turnover margin, forcing few themselves while committing more than most league teams. Their one defensive strength is on the perimeter, where they hold opponents below 33% on three-point attempts. When the ball goes inside, though, they usuallly have trouble getting stops.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Sirlester Martin, 9.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 44.1 eFG% - Martin is second in the Horizon in rebounding, and while he’s only fourth on the team in scoring, he’s part of a fairly even group of scorers around the 10 PPG mark. Martin’s problem is shooting, as he hits just 43% of his two attempts.

6-2 JR DeAndre Mays, 10.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 43.4 eFG% - Mays’ overall percentages aren’t great, but he’s a solid lead guard, with a good assist rate and the ability to hit the long distance shot.

#7 – UIC Flames (15-14, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.036

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

The Flames are the last team that are close to even in in-conference efficiency margin, and the last team with a significant chance of making the semifinals. A good start and strong finish to the season for UIC were ruined by a 4-11 stretch in the first month and a half of the conference season. This is a quality shooting team, making a good percentage of free throws and threes, but with most of its shots coming from insie, where the Flames shoot just 43%, the offense as a whole isn’t too strong. Interestingly, their opponents tend to have success from outside as well, making a lot of threes and rarely turning the ball over. The Flames’ defensive system leads to opponents taking a large number of threes, and since UIC doesn’t stop enough of them from being made, it has the conference’s second worst defense.

Players to watch:

5-11, SR Josh Mayo, 16.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 48.6 eFG% - Mayo is part of one of the conference’s best inside-outside combinations, and is second in the Horizon in scoring. The senior guard shoots an almost identical percentage from two and from three, both around 40%, and is excellent at the free throw line, where he shoots 86%. He’s not the primary ball distribution guard, but does manage to average more than 3 assists.

7-0, SR Scott VanderMeer, 10.7 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 41.2 eFG% - VanderMeer is the conference’s best pure big man, a dominant shot-blocker and rebounder. What’s surprising about him is his shooting percentage, which is certainly not as high as you’d expect from a 7-footer.

#8 – Loyola Chicago Ramblers (14-17, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.118

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1985 (Sweet Sixteen)

The Ramblers came up with the Horizon’s most surprising result of the year when they snapped a six-game losing streak by being the only HL team to win a regular season game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They were incredibly efficient on the offensive end in that game, which is the only way they can realistically win with the conference’s worst defense. Horizon opponents have shredded Loyola, shooting over 50% from two, and 46% overall. Loyola also has a worse offense than any team ahead of them in the standings, explaining why there is such a big gap to the bottom three teams. They are the conference’s worst at making shots, but are very good offensive rebounders, and don’t turn it over much.

Players to watch:

6-1, SR J.R. Blount, 13.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.9 eFG% - Blount leads the Ramblers in scoring and assists, but this isn’t really a good thing, as he is quite a poor percentage player, shooting under 40% from the field and struggling with turnovers.

6-8, SR Darrin Williams, 7.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 51.4 eFG% - Williams is only Loyola’s fifth ranked scorer, but is really the only player who shoots decently, at 51%. He’s also a good rebounder and shot blocker, and the Ramblers need him to play well in the post.

#9 – Valparaiso Crusaders (9-21, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.090

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

The Crusaders are the perfect example of why this time of year is so magical, as more than a decade later the Valpo name is still associated with its huge tourney upset in 1998. This edition will have pulled a big upset if it even manages to make the semifinals, as they’ve had a tough season, though they have won two of their last three. Valpo’s offensive struggles have come despite their solid shooting; the problem has been in getting possessions, as they are near the bottom of the league in turnovers and rebounding. Defensively, the Crusaders are pretty mediocre, with he only bright spot being their ability to force turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-9, SR Urule Igbavboa, 12.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.9 BPG, 50.2 eFG% - Igbavboa has taken a larger role in the Valpo offense in his senior year, and seen his efficiency drop from a successful 07-08 season. Still, he’s a versatile player with a lot of talents, leading the Crusaders in scoring, blocks and rebounding and chipping in with some assists as well. He is at his best when he can get to the free throw-line, where he earns a lot of points despite a mediocre percentage.

6-3, SO Howard Little, 9.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 54.7 eFG% - Little is the rare Crusader who is a serious threat from behind the arc, and while he doesn’t take a lot of shots, he’s efficient enough to sit second on the team in scoring. He’s also a pretty good rebounder, and leads the team in steals.

#10 – Detroit Titans (7-22, 2-16) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.142

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (2^nd Round)

It may be as cheesy as it gets, but ‘Mercy’ is an appropriate name for the Titans, given their woeful performance with the ball, one of the worst in-conference offensive showings in the nation. Consider that if they were as good defending against the Horizon average as Memphis have been against Conference USA (which is pretty damn good, if you didn’t know), they’d probably still be a .500 team. Given this, it’s a miracle that they managed to stay within single digits of Butler in both games against the Bulldogs. Interestingly, they manage to be terrible offensively while still making a decent field goal percentage, which should tell you everything you need to know about how useful that stat is in isolation. The problem is twofold, turnovers and three-point shooting. When you make just 25% of long-range attempts, and give the ball up once every four times down the floor, it’s hard to find possessions in which the ball ends up in the basket. Defensively, Detroit are actually decent, mostly because they force turnovers themselves and do well on the glass.

Players to watch:

5-11 JR Woody Payne, 8.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 SPG, 45.7 eFG% - Payne is a bit of an oddity, a 5-11 player who takes very few threes, and doesn’t do well on those he does attempt. He’s a decent point guard, leading the team in assists, having one of the best steal rates in the country, and only occasionally struggling with turnovers.

6-7 JR Thomas Kennedy, 11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 47.5 eFG% - The Titans’ leading scorer, Kennedy could actually be an efficient player if he cut out the three-pointers, on which he shoots just 24%. He’s an OK rebounder, but nothing special, and doesn’t contribute enough in any other area to make up for his poor shot selection.

My statistical all-Horizon League team:

Butler SO G Matt Howard, 14.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 55.6 eFG%

UIC SR G Josh Mayo, 16.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 48.6 eFG%

Green Bay SR G Ryan Tillema, 16.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG,59.4 eFG%

Butler FR G/F Gordon Hayward, 13.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 61.7 eFG%

Cleveland St. SR F J’Nathan Bullock, 15.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 47.7 eFG%

Horizon League Tournament 2009: Seeding/Schedule

Press Release — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:28:19 -0800

2009 Speedway Horizon League Men's Basketball Championship

Tuesday, March 3 / First Round / at campus sites
Game 1 - #10 Detroit at #3 Cleveland State, 7 p.m. ET (HLN)
Game 2 - #7 UIC at #6 Youngstown State, 7 p.m. ET (HLN)
Game 3 - #9 Valparaiso at #4 Wright State, 7 p.m. ET (HLN)
Game 4 - #8 Loyola at #5 Milwaukee, 8 p.m. ET (HLN)

Friday, March 6 / Second Round / at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Game 5 - Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 6 p.m. ET (HLN)
Game 6 - Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 8 p.m. ET (HLN)

Saturday, March 7 / Semifinals / at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Game 7 - Game 5 winner at #1 Butler, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Game 8 - Game 6 winner vs. #2 Green Bay, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Tuesday, March 10 / Championship / at higher remaining seed
Game 9 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Wright State Tops UIC: Flames Only Score 31

Bill Kintner — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 08:15:36 -0800

DAYTON - When we last left off Wright State had just held Loyola to just four field goals in the second half as they beat them 68-47 on Thursday night. Tonight Wright State held University of Illinois-Chicago to just five buckets in the second half and a school record 31 points in the game as the Raiders win 57-31.

The defensive wonders for Wright State included holding UIC to just 26.2 percent shooting (11-42) for the game and also holding UIC's first team Horizon League Player Josh Mayo to just six points and eight shots. To stop Mayo the Raiders used N'Gai Evans some and Will Graham a lot to guard him.
Wright State coach Brad Brownell said he used Graham because of his experience and all of the little things to he brings to the games.

He said, ‘Will has just been in the battles a longtime in this league. He is never the primary player. He is a glue guy, he holds your players together. He will never wow you with shooting but he wows you with a lot of other plays that a lot of casual fans miss."

Wright State player Pat Tabler added, "We were just trying to limit his touches. They do a lot of dribbling and fill behinds. We just didn't want to slide off of him to help"

When the game started, UIC (10-9, 3-6 HL) used the first six minutes of the game to build a five point lead on three short jumpers by Scott Vandermeer and a 3-pointer by Tori Boyd to go ahead 9-4.
At the 3:38 mark Wright State's Troy Tabler hit a 3-pointer to put Wright State up 15-13 and they held the lead for the rest of the game. By the time the first half ended Wright State (12-8, 6-3 HL) went up by 10 points at 23-13 on two more 3-pointers Todd Brown and a layup by Cooper Land.

In the second half UIC cut the lead to seven points at the 16:42 mark on a jumper by Boyd making it 30-23 but that was as close as the Flames got. Wright State just kept pushing the score up until the Raiders went up 26 points on the last bucket of the game when Land put in a layup with 44 seconds left.

After the game UIC coach Jimmy Collins appeared almost 45 minutes after the game and he hopping mad. The delay in appearing in the media room was because he was meeting with his team in their locker room.

"I have never been so embarrassed in all my years of coaching. I have never been affiliated with a team that wouldn't fight, said Collins. "Wight State has a good team and we quit. Brad does a good job with those kids. They are spirited, they are high fiving each other and picking each other up."
Collins said they have plays designed to get Mayo the ball but some of his players are selfish and just didn't want to set picks for Mayo.

"Our game plan was to get people the ball, to be poised, play smart and to play together, " added Collins. "We didn't do that."

Brown led a scorers with 23 points on a 9-18 shooting performance and Vandermeer led UIC with 10 points.

Brownell was pleased with his team's performance tonight and on Thursday against Loyola.
"Clearly one of our better performances, I am really please of how our kids played defensively," said Brownell. "We showed some maturity. We struggled early just a bit offensively, but we kept our poise and pulled through. Our kids were really ready, we played with a lot of confidence."

Notes:
-The Raiders set a new school record by allowing only 31 points tonight breaking the 35 points record they set earlier this season against Toledo on December 9th when they won 50-35.
-One of Wright State's best players, John David Gardner played just seven minutes tonight and came out with an on-going nagging hip injury.
-UIC leads the all-time series with Wright State 20-19.
-UIC's next game is Wednesday at Green Bay at 8 p.m.
-Wright State's next game is Wednesday at Youngstown State at 7 p.m.