Kansas

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 23:07:58 -0400

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Kentucky Wins Eighth National Title

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 13:19:20 -0400

The looks on their faces seemed to be more of relief than elation. Pegged as one of two overwhelming favorites in October (North Carolina being the other), and the prohibitive favorite entering the NCAA tournament, a season without a national title would have been a disappointment for the Kentucky Wildcats.

Mission accomplished.

Doron Lamb scored a game-high 22 points and Most Outstanding Player Anthony Davis left his fingerprints on the game in spite of a 1-for-10 shooting performance, helping lead Kentucky to a 67-59 win over Kansas in New Orleans. The win gives Kentucky their eighth in school history and first since 1998, and it's also the first for head coach John Calipari.

"Now I can get about my business of coaching basketball and getting these players to be the best that they can be, helping young people," said Calipari when asked what the title meant to him.

"You know, create better lives for themselves and their families, and also helping them prepare for life after basketball. I can get on with that. I don't have to hear the drama. I can just coach now."

The reason why he can "just coach now": a group that displayed a chemistry many thought impossible with so many having the potential to make a quick exit to the next level. Talent's great, and this Kentucky team had plenty of it, but a team doesn't go 38-2 and win a national title on talent alone.

Lamb knocked down a pair of key 3-pointers in the second half to hold off the first Kansas rally, extending the lead to 54-38 with 10:04 remaining. Kansas would get as close as six points but wouldn't close the gap any further, with Kentucky's stellar first half establishing a distance they were unable to overcome.

Thomas Robinson led the Jayhawks in what will most likely be his final collegiate game with 18 points and 17 rebounds, and for the junior to put up that kind of line on a night many felt he struggled says something about the effort he gave.

Kentucky's length inside has been a problem for teams all season long and it was for Robinson as he finished 6 of 17 from the field, but he and Jeff Withey kept plugging. Withey finished with seven rebounds and four blocked shots but went 2 of 8 from the field. As a team Kansas shot 35% from the field and 33% from two, nullifying a 5 of 11 night from beyond the arc.

"A lot of times I tried to go to my left shoulder on Jones, but I could see Anthony skying over top of him," said Robinson. "So it was kind of tough for me to even pass it to Jeff or try to get a shot up. [Davis] definitely impacted the game for a stretch on the defensive end."

Davis may have had a poor night from a shooting standpoint but the freshman from Chicago did everything else in the paint for Kentucky. He finished with 16 rebounds and six blocked shots and five assists on the night, and with Lamb and Marquis Teague (14 points) providing the bulk of the offense all he really had to do was produce in the paint.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist added 11 points, Terrence Jones chipped in with nine and seven rebounds and senior guard Darius Miller gave Kentucky good minutes off the bench, a formula that's worked all season long. Elijah Johnson and Tyshawn Taylor combined to score 32 points on the night for Kansas but they needed 30 shots from the field to do so, making just 13.

The question for both teams now is whether they'll have enough in 2012-13 to make a return to the Final Four happen, and the answer would be 'yes'. Kansas may be losing Taylor and (likely) Robinson, but the other key players from Monday night are expected back and Ben McLemore will be eligible as well. If anything was learned from this season it's that Bill Self's program should never be counted out of the national title discussion.

As for Kentucky, they'll have personnel openings are there's the possibility that all six of their main rotation guys head off to the NBA. But Calipari will reload with another potent recruiting class led (right now) by Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress, and Kyle Wiltjer should be better equipped for major minutes as a sophomore.

The question is whether or not they can come together as this group did, as the national champs shared a chemistry seldom seen amongst such a young group.

What Can We Learn from the November Meeting?

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 02:35:06 -0400

The question of what can be learned from a prior regular season meeting can be a tricky one, especially when there's been so much time in between meetings. No. 1 seed Kentucky (37-2) and No. 2 seed Kansas (32-6) will meet on Monday night for the national title, a rematch of their November 15th meeting at the Champions Classic in New York.

Kentucky won that game 75-65, scoring 47 points in the second half of a game that was tied at 28 at the break. While both teams are far different outfits, with the Wildcat freshmen playing just their second collegiate game and Kansas having some players who are important now adjusting to their new roles on that night, there are some things that can be taken away from the Kentucky win.

Here are some thoughts from that first meeting, and how they apply to what each team will need to do in order to win on Monday night.

Kansas Thoughts

1. Tyshawn Taylor
There's no denying the fact that the senior point guard will need to play very well if Kansas is to win its fourth NCAA title. Turnovers have been a talking point when it comes to Taylor for much of the season, but he did not turn the ball over once in the first meeting with Kentucky. The concern on Monday night when looking at the box score from the November meeting: making shots in the lane.

Nine of Taylor's 13 shots came by way of either a layup or dunk, yet he made just two of them. Overall Taylor shot 3 of 13 from the field, scoring 22 points due to a 15 of 17 night from the foul line. It's tough to see him getting 17 free throw attempts on Monday night, meaning that Taylor will need to do a better job of converting the looks he finds in the lane.

With Anthony Davis, who will likely draw Jeff Withey defensively, lurking inside that's easier said than done. And to be fair the missed layups issue wasn't Taylor's alone back in November. As a team the Jayhawks made 7 of 29 layups (14 of 37 overall when counting dunks) according to the CBSSports.com shot chart from the game, a line that simply won't get it done in the rematch.

2. Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford
These two came up big against Ohio State on Saturday night, and Johnson's the reason why the Jayhawks were able to get past Purdue in the Round of 32. Yet they combined to shoot 5 of 17 from the field against Kentucky, scoring 12 points. Releford had the toughest time of the two when it comes to adjusting to Kentucky's length as he accounted for five of Kansas' 14 turnovers.

But in five tournament games Releford has accounted for just three turnovers. Kentucky's a different class of opponent than the five teams the Jayhawks have faced to this point due in large part to their size and wingspan at all five positions. But Releford taking better care of the basketball is a good trend to ride into the title game. The last time Releford's had a turnover percentage of 50% or worse was Kansas' win over Baylor back on February 8. Since then the number's been no higher than 20%; it was 55.5% against Kentucky back in November.

Johnson made just one of his six jumpshots on the night, and for the season 59.5% of his shot attempts come from beyond the arc. But he's been better down the stretch than he was at Madison Square Garden, which could bode well for the Jayhawks. In that game Johnson posted an effective field goal percentage of 31.8%; in four of the five tournament games he's posted an eFG% of 60% or better. Johnson's shooting better and Releford's taking better care of the basketball, and both of those things will need to happen on Monday night.

3. Thomas Robinson
With this being the first match-up of First Team AP All-Americans in a title game since 1999 (Duke's Elton Brand and Connecticut's Richard Hamilton) it's obvious that Robinson and Davis will receive a lot of hype, and rightfully so. The question for Robinson will be how he deals with Kentucky's interior length, and that also includes sophomore Terrence Jones.

Robinson will likely see both players, with Jones possibly getting more time in an attempt to keep Davis out of foul trouble. But regardless of which one he's being guarded by, the Big 12 Player of the Year has to do a better job of scoring around the rim than he did in the first meeting. Robinson missed six shots around the rim, and for the night he made 5 of 12 from the field. On the season Robinson is making 51% of his 2-point shots, and he's been around that number just once (53.8% vs. Detroit) in the tournament.

That's understandable given the amount of attention Robinson's received from opposing defenses, so if Jeff Withey can make Kentucky pay with a couple baskets early things could open up for Robinson. That being said, the Wildcats may be willing to gamble on Withey being able to beat them as he did Baylor in their meeting in Waco. Either way, Robinson will need to score more than the 11 points he tallied in November if Kansas is to win.

Kentucky Thoughts

1. Marquis Teague
Similar to Taylor, the freshman from Indianapolis will be a key figure in the action at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. As it was for Kentucky as a team back in November, the first meeting was a tale of two halves for Teague. Teague turned the ball over six times in the first half, and it's no coincidence that the Wildcats played better as he took better care of the basketball (zero turnovers in the second half).

On the season Teague has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.8 and for the tournament his ratio is at 2.0, which is a far cry from what he put forth at MSG. Teague was similar to Taylor in regards to shots around the basket, as he also struggled in November. Teague made 2 of 7 layups and dunks, with wild forays to the basket tending to lead to either misses or the turnovers discussed above.

With experience has come maturity for Teague, and if he can continue on that path Monday night both he and his team should be able to reap the rewards. Attack the lane with a purpose, and be sure to not kill his dribble without knowing what his next move will be, and Teague should be productive at the point.

2. Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
There aren't many players in America who are scrutinized as much as Jones, with his demeanor being the focus of many. When he's dialed in Jones is one of the toughest match-ups in the country, as he can finish above the rim and knock down perimeter jumpers. And he played well in the first meeting, accounting for 15 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.

Similar to Jones, Kidd-Gilchrist was all over the box score against Kansas with 12 points, nine rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. His versatility on the defensive end lends itself to John Calipari being able to give him nearly any defensive assignment on the floor. Kidd-Gilchrist saw some time defensively against Peyton Siva on Saturday, with his length giving Siva trouble in the first half, and he could be called on to defend Tyshawn Taylor some on Monday night.

The one issue for Kidd-Gilchirst in the first meeting were the five turnovers, a number he hasn't matched since January 3 against UALR when he had six. MKG finished Saturday's game with four turnovers in what was a somewhat frustrating night following an outstanding weekend in Atlanta the week prior. If Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist are able to leave their prints on the game in a variety of areas, Kentucky is going to be tough to beat. If one (or both) struggle, then the door opens even wider for Kansas.

3. Anthony Davis
Regardless of what the freshman from Chicago may have said at the end of Kentucky's win over Louisville on Saturday night, the fact of the matter is that he took over against Louisville. 18 points, 14 rebounds and five blocked shots for Davis, who has won every major Player of the Year award except for one (Michigan State's Draymond Green won the NABC's award).

14 points, seven blocked shots and six rebounds is what Davis put up in the November meeting, and that doesn't take into effect the number of shots he changed on that night (see Kansas' numbers on layups and dunks above for an idea of that). The task for Davis is a simple one on Monday night: stay out of foul trouble, whether he's on Robinson or Withey to start. The battle between he and Withey features two of the best shot-blockers in the country, with Davis leading in blocks per game and Withey in block percentage.

Of the two Davis is the better offensive weapon, but it isn't as if Kentucky has to run a lot of plays specifically for him. Four of his six made field goals in the first meeting were either layups or dunks, and he's fifth on the team in possession percentage (19.1%) according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers. Davis being a force on both ends of the floor would likely mean an eight national title for Kentucky, something the Jayhawks must make sure doesn't happen.

Resources Used: CBSSports.com, statsheet.com and kenpom.com

Kentucky vs Kansas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 09:53:39 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) Kansas: National Championship

Records

Kentucky 37-2, 16-0 SEC

Kansas 32-6, 16-2 Big 12

Time: 9:23 p.m. Monday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70; def. Louisville, 69-61

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60; def. North Carolina State, 60-57; def. North Carolina, 80-67; def. Ohio State, 64-62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Kansas 5

Regular-season results

Nov. 15 – Kentucky def. Kansas, 75-65

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 139½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 50.1% FG); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.6 ppg, 47.1% 3s); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (10 ppg, 4.8 apg); G/F Darius Miller, 6-8 Sr. (10 ppg, 2.2 apg, 37.8% 3s); F Kyle Wiltjer, 6-9 Fr. (5.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 43% 3s).

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 51.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.5 bpg); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg); G Travis Releford, 6-6 Jr. (8.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50% FG); G Conner Teahan, 6-6 Sr. (5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34% 3s); F Kevin Young, 6-8 Jr. (3.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 49% FG).

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: The Wildcats are extraordinarily balanced with six players averaging double figures. Even when Kidd-Gilchrist and Jones struggled in Saturday’s win over Louisville, others stepped up. Miller scored 13 off the bench, Wiltjer hit two big buckets and Teague had eight points and five assists. Kentucky shot 57 percent in the victory. For the season, UK shoots 47 percent from the floor. Kentucky plays very good defense in the paint, averaging 8.5 blocks per game, which leads the country. Their transition offense is as good as anyone’s in the nation.

Kansas: Robinson is as good and plays as hard as any player in the country. He’s capable of controlling the paint, even against a frontcourt as good as Kentucky’s. Taylor is a good floor leader and is strong scoring threat. Along with Robinson, Withey provides great interior defense and if Johnson is hot, the Jayhawks are really tough to handle. Kansas held Ohio State to 20-of-59 from the field and 8-of-22 from the 3-point line in Saturday’s win and out-rebounded the Buckeyes 41-30, including 12 offensive boards. KU has trailed in every game of the tournament and has shown great resilience. It’s probably time to just crown Bill Self the best coach in college basketball. The job he’s done this season has been remarkable and he’ll have the Jayhawks ready to play on Monday.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: There isn’t much the Wildcats do poorly. They are slightly above average in their half-court offense and their transition defense. They were out-rebounded by Louisville, 37-32, and gave up 16 offensive boards and that has been a sore spot at times. Robinson could give them fits in the offensive glass. Kentucky doesn’t force a lot of turnovers typically and gets a steal on only 9.2 percent of opponents’ possessions. UK would likely have the youngest starting lineup ever to win a national title, but immaturity hasn’t been a problem to this point.

Kansas: This is the least talented Kansas team in a decade, making its run truly remarkable. Robinson and Taylor score about 46.4 percent of the team’s points, so there’s not a lot of balance and almost no depth. Talent- and skill-wise, Kansas will be outmatched by the Wildcats. The Jayhawks are not a great shooting team, making just 34.5 percent of their 3-point attempts and they score just 23.2 percent of their points from behind the arc. They shoot just 69.2 percent from the foul line, although they hit some clutch ones against OSU. At times, KU is turnover prone, but that’s gotten better.

The Bottom Line: It’s been a great college basketball season. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to end with a bang. Kentucky will stretch its lead throughout the game and win by double-figures.

The Pick: Kentucky 71, Kansas 60

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 208-162-6

Cheerleader of the Day: Kansas

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 10:37:49 -0400

CollegeHoops.net's Cheerleader of the Day is back in 2012. Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media. Check out our new college cheerleader archive.

Cheerleaders of the Day
>>		>>		>>			..Archive

Ohio St vs Kansas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:43:24 -0400

(2) Ohio State vs. (2) Kansas

Records

Kansas 31-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Ohio State 31-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season Conference 3-way Champions; At large)

Time: 8:49 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (4) Louisville, Monday in National Championship

Tournament Results

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60; def. N.C. State, 60-57; def. North Carolina, 80-67

Ohio State def. Loyola (Md.), 78-59; def. Gonzaga, 73-66; def. Cincinnati, 81-66; def. Syracuse, 77-70

Regular-season Meeting

Dec. 10 – At Kansas 78, Ohio State 67

Rankings

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Ohio State No. 7 AP; No. 7 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kansas 6

Ohio State 5

Line: Ohio State -2½ (O/U 137)

Players to Watch

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 51.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg). Taylor came up big against North Carolina with a trip to the Final 4 on the line. After struggling through the first three rounds of the tourney, Taylor was 10-for-19 from the field with 22 points, six rebounds, five assists and five steals.

Ohio State: F Jared Sullinger, 6-9 So. (17.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 53.1% FG); F Deshaun Thomas, 6-7 So. (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 53% FG); G William Buford, 6-6 Sr. (14.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 35.1% 3s). Buford hasn’t shot well during the tournament, but Saturday’s win over Syracuse, the senior contributed with 13 points, nine rebounds and a pair of assists.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kansas: Robinson is a National Player of the Year candidate. He has 16 double-doubles for the season and should have a big game against the Buckeyes. Defensively, Robinson and C Jeff Withey defend the paint as well as any pair in the country. Kansas blocks 5.6 shots per game as a team. Opponents have shot just 77-for-224 (34.4 percent) against Kansas in the tournament. Offensively, the Jayhawks are shooting 47.6 percent for the season, 22^nd nationally. Kansas is a solid rebounding team with a plus-5.6 margin for the season.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are as good offensively around the basket as any team in the country. Sullinger and Thomas are strong and creative with the ball. For the season, Ohio State is shooting 48 percent from the floor. The Buckeyes’ 55.7 rebound percentage is sixth nationally and their 75.2 percent defensive rebound percentage is second. They own a plus-7.7 rebounding margin and a plus-3 turnover margin and a 1.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Ohio State has gotten to the foul line 803 times. OSU forced 18 turnovers in December’s loss to Kansas.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kansas: Until scoring 80 points in the win over Carolina, the Jayhawks were averaging just 62.5 points and shot just 40.6 percent from the floor in the three victories. Kansas has almost no frontcourt depth, which could be a concern against the active Buckeyes. For the season, KU turns the ball over 13 times per game.

Ohio State: Although Buford, Thomas and Aaron Craft are capable perimeter shooters, OSU is not a great 3-point shooting team. They are shooting just 33.3 percent from behind the arc and score just 20.1 percent of their points from deep. The Buckeyes also allowed opponents to make over six 3s per game. Despite decent size, Ohio State is not great in the paint defensively.

The Bottom Line: Robinson will be a handful, but the Buckeyes will pull away for a comfortable win.

The Pick: Ohio State 71, Kansas 62

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 207-161-6

Kansas vs North Carolina: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 11:52:29 -0400

(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Kansas: Midwest Region

Records

North Carolina 32-5, 14-2 ACC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Kansas 30-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Time: 5:05 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis

Winner will face: (1) Syracuse or (2) Ohio State, Saturday in New Orleans

Tournament Results

North Carolina def. Vermont, 77-58; def. Creighton, 87-73; def. Ohio, 73-65 (OT)

Kansas def. Detroit 65-50; def. Purdue 63-60; def. N.C. State, 60-57

Rankings

North Carolina No. 4 AP; No. 5 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

North Carolina 4

Kansas 6

Line: Kansas -2 (O/U 143½)

Players to Watch

North Carolina: F Tyler Zeller, 7-0 Sr. (16.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 55.2% FG); F John Henson, 6-11 Jr. (13.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3 bpg); G Stilman White, 6-0 Fr. (4.3 mpg, 0.7 ppg, 0.6 apg). White certainly isn’t Kendall Marshall, but the freshman wasn’t bad in his first start of the season in Friday’s overtime win over Ohio with a season-high six assists against zero turnovers.

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 52.1% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.9 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.2 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.3 bpg). After subpar games in the Jayhawks’ first two tournament wins, Withey was big in Kansas’s victory over N.C. State on Friday with eight points, five rebounds, a steal, an assist and 10 big blocked shots.

Why Each Team Dangerous

North Carolina: The Tar Heels dominated the paint Friday, no different than they have the entire season. UNC out-rebounded Ohio 56-26, including 17 offensive boards, blocked eight shots and held the Bobcats to 23-of-71 shooting. For the season, Carolina out-rebounds opponents by 10.9 boards per game, blocks 5.8 shots per contest and opponents manage only 39.2 percent from the floor against the Tar Heels. UNC is deep up front and on the wings, especially compared to the Jayhawks.

Kansas: The Jayhawk defense was excellent against N.C. State. The Wolfpack managed just 19-for-67 from the floor, 6-of-21 from the 3-point line and Kansas forced 14 turnovers and got nine steals and 11 blocked shots. It was perhaps its best defensive performance of the season. Of course, Kansas is also a capable offensive team. For the year, Kansas ranks 21^st in the nation in field goal percentage (47.6) and averages 74 points per game. The Jayhawks have a plus-5.6 rebounding margin and a 1.16-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

North Carolina: The Tar Heels clearly weren’t the same without Marshall. They turned the ball over 24 times against 18 assists. For the season, Carolina turned the ball over just 12 times per game, had a plus-1.5 turnover margin and a 1.44-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but that was with Marshall. If Marshall can’t go Sunday – and coach Roy Williams said he won’t – the Tar Heels will have to be much more careful with the basketball against Kansas. They’ll also have to hit perimeter shots. They went just 7-for-22 against Ohio and shoot just 34.1 from behind the arc this season.

Kansas: Although the KU offense has been good all year, it struggled Friday, shooting 37.5 percent from the field and hitting one of its 14 3-point shots. Taylor struggled, in particular, going 2-for-14 overall and 0-for-6 from deep. It has struggled from behind the arc all season, shooting just 34.6 percent, while allowing opponents to shoot 34.3 percent from deep. The Jayhawks were also out-rebounded 43-42 by the Wolfpack and have been prone to giving up offensive rebounds all season. Frontcourt depth is also an issue. Against the big UNC front line, foul trouble may be a concern.

The Bottom Line: If Marshall plays and is himself, Carolina wins going away. If he doesn’t, this one goes down to the wire.

The Pick: North Carolina 77, Kansas 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 215-171-6 (Through Regional Semis)

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 15:58:56 -0400

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

Kansas vs NC State: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:22:52 -0400

(2) Kansas vs. (11) North Carolina State: Midwest Region

Records

Kansas 29-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

North Carolina State 24-12, 9-7 ACC (At large)

Time: 10:17 p.m. Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis

Winner will face: (1) North Carolina or (13) Ohio, Sunday

Tournament Results

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60

N.C. State def. San Diego State, 79-65; def. Georgetown, 66-63

Rankings

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

N.C. State No. 36 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kansas 8

N.C. State 35

Line: Kansas -8 (O/U 141½)

Players to Watch

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.9 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 25 double-doubles); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (17.1 ppg, 4.7 apg, 49.5% FG); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (9.8 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.5 spg). Johnson has been the key to the Jayhawks’ berth in the Sweet 16, particularly with Sunday’s 18-point performance over Purdue. In two NCAA games, Johnson has 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists and three steals.

N.C. State: G Lorenzo Brown, 6-5 So. (12.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.4 rpg); F C.J. Leslie, 6-8 So. (14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 53.1% FG); F Richard Howell, 6-8 Jr. (11.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 51% FG). Brown continues to prove he’s one of the most underappreciated point guards in the country after 29 points, 15 assists, 15 rebounds and three steals during upsets over San Diego State and Georgetown.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kansas: The Robinson-Taylor duo is arguably the best inside-outside combination in the country. The two combine for over 34 points per game. With Johnson playing well, it makes Kansas’s offense, which averages 74.4 points and shoots 48 percent from the field, that much more difficult to defend. The Jayhawks also out-rebound opponents by nearly six per game, including 15 offensive boards in the win over Purdue. Defensively, opponents shoot just 38.1 percent from the field against the Jayhawks.

N.C. State: The Wolfpack can score and play defense. They average 73.3 points per game, make 5.3 3s per contest, average 15.8 assists, hold opponents to 41.7 percent from the field, 33.8 from behind the 3-point line and force 12.4 turnovers per game. N.C. State is athletic and long, and on its good nights, and play with anybody in the country. N.C. State is a good rebounding team with a plus-5.3 rebounding margin and had 15 offensive boards in the win over Georgetown. Led by Brown, the Wolfpack are excellent in transition.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kansas: This Kansas team is less athletic and skilled than Jayhawk teams of the past. They have almost no depth with only seven players averaging more than three minutes per game. The Jayhawk perimeter defense allows opponents to shoot 34.5 percent from behind the arc, and Purdue went 8-for-18 on Sunday. Kansas turns the ball over too much at 13.1 times per contest, allowing opponents to swipe 6.6 steals per game. Kansas sometimes relies on 3-point shooting too often and connect on 35.2 percent behind the arc.

N.C. State: The Pack are inconsistent. They have played their best basketball of late, but they’re capable of really bad games. And when they’re playing poorly, they’re usually turning the ball over. N.C. State averages 12.7 errors per game and has a minus-0.2 turnover margin. The Wolfpack aren’t a great shooting team, hitting 46.3 percent from the floor and 35.8 from behind the 3-point line. Despite their size and athleticism, the Pack scores just 20.2 percent of their points from the foul line, which ranks 172^nd in the country.

The Bottom Line: I like N.C. State’s chances of continuing to advance and I really like the Wolfpack getting eight points.

The Pick: North Carolina State 70, Kansas 69

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0400

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.