St Louis

College Basketball Top 50: Virginia and Saint Louis Enter

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 10 Feb 2013 20:28:35 -0800

Collegehoops.net's Top 50 Power Ranking is your weekly dive into the national college basketball scene. The CHN Top 50 is brought to you before all the other polls late Sunday night. Arrows represent notable moves. (Also: Check out the weekly Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking.)

Top 50 Ranking: February 10th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

*Back after the Super Bowl Sunday break. Loss totals and movement are from past 2 weeks combined.

	Team	Record	Last
1	Duke	21-2	3
2	Indiana	21-3*	5
3	Michigan	21-3**	1
4	Florida	19-3*	4
5	Gonzaga	23-2	8
6	Miami	19-3	19
7	Arizona	20-3*	7
8	Syracuse	20-3*	6
9	Michigan State	20-4	12
10	Louisville	19-5*	10
11	Kansas St	19-4	22
12	Kansas	19-4***	2
13	New Mexico	20-4*	13
14	Ohio State	17-6**	9
15	Butler	20-4*	11
16	San Diego St	18-5*	18
17	Notre Dame	19-5*	24
18	VCU	19-5	27
19	Marquette	17-5*	29
20	Oklahoma St	17-5	35
21	Minnesota	17-7**	15
22	Missouri	17-6**	17
23	Pittsburgh	20-5*	34
24	Creighton	20-5**	21
25	Georgetown	17-4	36
26	Wisconsin	17-7*	30
27	Colorado St	19-4	39
28	Wichita St	20-5***	14
29	Oregon	19-5***	16
30	Memphis	20-3	31
31	NC State	17-7***	20
32	UNLV	18-6**	23
33	Cincinnati	18-6**	26
34	Middle Tennessee	22-4	44
35	Belmont	20-5*	32
36	UCONN	16-6*	33
37	Kentucky	17-6	38
38	Ole Miss	18-5***	25
39	UCLA	18-6*	37
40	Illinois	17-8**	40
41	St. Mary's	21-4	41
42	Bucknell	20-4	42
43	North Carolina	16-7*	43
44	Baylor	15-8***	28
45	Temple	16-7*	46
46	Virginia	17-6	NA
47	Saint Louis	18-5	NA (51)
48	Boise St	16-7**	48
49	Maryland	17-7**	49
50	Iowa St	16-7**	50

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Indiana St (16-8), Colorado (16-7*), La Salle (16-6*), Stephen F Austin (20-2), Oklahoma (15-7**)

Top 50 Drop Outs (that haven't returned)

			Week
	BYU		13
	Wyoming		13
	Iowa		11
	Colorado		10
	Murray St		9
	Virginia Tech		7
	Xavier		6
	Alabama		6
	St. Joseph's		5
	Ohio		5
	California		4
	Santa Clara		3
	Tennessee		3
	Northwestern		3
	Florida State		3
	Texas		2
	Northern Iowa		2
	South Alabama		2

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Michigan St vs Saint Louis: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 20:22:20 -0700

(1) Michigan State vs. (8) Saint Louis: West Region

Records

Michigan State 28-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season and Conference Tournament Champions

Saint Louis 26-7, 12-4 A-10 (At large)

Time: 2:45 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio

First round results

Michigan State def. Long Island, 89-67

Saint Louis def. Memphis, 61-54

Winner will face: (4) Louisville or (5) New Mexico, Thursday in Phoenix

Rankings

Michigan State No. 5 AP; No. 4 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Saint Louis No. 36 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Michigan State 3

Saint Louis 29

Line: Michigan State -6 (O/U 123)

Players to Watch

Michigan State: F Draymond Green, 6-7 Sr. (16.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.6 apg); C Derrick Nix, 6-9 Jr. (7.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 55.6% FG); G Keith Appling, 6-1 So. (11.3 ppg, 3.9 apg, 1.2 spg). Nix was huge off of the Spartan bench on Friday, going 8-for-13 in an 18-point, 8-rebound outing in the win. Five of Nix’s eight boards came on the offensive end and most came during MSU’s game-clinching second-half stretch run.

Saint Louis: F Brian Conklin, 6-6 Sr. (13.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 53.3% FG); G Kwamain Mitchell, 5-10 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg); F Dwayne Evans, 6-5 So. (8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 46.4% FG). Mitchell, who was suspended for all of last season, was brilliant in his first NCAA appearance. He hit nine of his 14 field goal attempts, scored 22 points and had four rebounds, two assists and a steal in the win over Memphis.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Michigan State: After a slow first half, the Spartans dominated an athletic Long Island team Friday, outscoring the Blackbird 47-30. In the win, Michigan State dominated the boards, 42-19, including 15 offensive boards. Payne, Green and Nix combined for 27 rebounds, 12 of which were offensive. For the year, the Spartans are out-rebounding opponents by 8.5 per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. MSU held the Blackbirds to 22-of-50 shooting and that’s not a surprise. Opponents shoot just percent overall and 29.7 percent from the 3-point line against the Spartans this season.

Saint Louis: The Saint Louis defense was outstanding Friday against a Memphis team that was on fire. The Billikens controlled the pace, holding the Tigers to 54 points on 38.9 percent shooting, including 2-of-15 from the 3-point line. SLU out-rebounded the bigger Tigers 31-25. For the season, the Billikens hold their opponents to 41.1 percent from the field and 31.3 from the 3-point line. MSU will have a hard time getting anything from the perimeter.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Michigan State: With Branden Dawson out of the season with a knee injury, Michigan State’s bench is thin, aside from Nix. Only three players came off of the Spartan bench Friday (until the final four minutes), and two of them combine for combined for 6.1 points per game this season. Michigan State shoots 48 percent from the field this season but is not a great perimeter shooting team. Only 22.5 percent of the Spartan points come behind the 3-point line, so if they get behind, they are not capable of shooting their way back. And MSU has had some bad shooting game, including a recent 20-for-51 outing in a loss to Indiana.

Saint Louis: Saint Louis has a similar depth issue to Michigan State, and it could be more of an issue for the Billikens, since the Spartans are more rugged than Memphis. Only two Billiken reserves played more than four minutes and the bench combined for just 10 points, nine rebounds and two assists. While the Billikens were great on Friday, they did turn the ball over 16 times and forced just 11. SLU is usually careful with the ball, turning it over just over 11 times per game. The Bills out-rebound their opponents by just 1.7 boards per game, even after the great effort on the boards against Memphis. And Michigan State isn’t Memphis. They’ll have to keep the Spartans off of the boards to have a chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

The Bottom Line: Another potential low scoring game, and since it is, six points is too many.

The Pick: Michigan State 57, Saint Louis 53

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 216-165-6 (Through Friday, March 17)

Round of 32 Against the Spread: 19-12-1

Friday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 07:44:42 -0700

After an "opening" day that went mostly according to form, the hope of many is that Friday's slate provides some upsets. And with some of the matchups providing a nice contrast in styles as well as talented players on mid-major squads who may not be household names just yet, there's a good chance that an upset does happen. Here's the schedule for today along with a game from each site that you should keep track of.

Columbus: (8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis
6:50 PM EST, TBS

Both of these teams have the potential to give Michigan State fits on Sunday, albeit for different reasons. Josh Pastner's Tigers were a team many expected to be in the Top 10 to start the season, but losses against the better teams on their non-conference schedule reuslted in Memphis likely being underseeded. Will Barton has been outstanding all season long, and the emergence of Chris Crawford has been another factor in their current run. The keys for Memphis are simple: make sound decisions without the basketball and make sure Tarik Black doesn't end up in early foul trouble.

Rick Majerus' Billikens get it done in a different way, as they're more comfortable with a game played in the half court. Kwamain Mitchell has played well at the point and despite his height Brian Conklin will battle inside for 40 minutes. SLU is one of the best coached teams in the tournament, so in that regards it may be safe to assume that at some point Saint Louis could have something special lined up Memphis especially if Barton gets rolling early. Both teams have been very good in regards to their efficiency numbers this season on both ends of the floor, which should lead to a tight contest. The team that does the better job of influencing the tempo of the game likely wins.

Other games in Columbus
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State; 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont; 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU Brooklyn; 9:20 PM EST (TBS)

Greensboro: (8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
1:40 PM EST, TBS

Xavier/Notre Dame is another contest to keep tabs on in Greensboro, but the first game of the day will be interesting in regards to how the Crimson Tide go about guarding Doug McDermott. With Tony Mitchell dismissed from the team a few weeks ago the most likely option for Anthony Grant is no longer present. But that doesn't mean that Alabama is without hope, as they allow opponents to shoot just 38.8% from the field. That's five percentage points better than Creighton, who's had issues defensively for much of the season. If McDermott and Antoine Young can get things going offensively the Bluejays should be able to create their kind of game.

But that's easier said than done, and they'll have to get stops at some point. Trevor Releford leads the way on the perimeter, and Alabama's going to need a Trevor Lacey or Levi Randolph to step up scoring-wise alongside him if they're to win. The battle in the paint between JaMychal Green and Gregory Echenique could be determined early if one of them gets into early foul trouble. The winner gets North Carolina and while most of the country likely hopes that it's Creighton who advances, they're going to need to bring a higher level of intensity on the defensive end if they're to move on.

Other games in Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Vermont; 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh; 7:15 PM EST (CBS)
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier; 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Nashville: (4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
7:20 PM EST, TNT

All four games in Nashville have the potential to produce wins by the lower-seeded team, so don't be surprised if the Bobcats give Michigan a run for their money. Point guard D.J. Cooper has played very well for John Groce, leading the team in both points and assists. Cooper was also a member of that team that knocked off Georgetown two years ago so the experience shouldn't be a concern either. Ohio's got some talented players alongside Cooper such as Ivo Baltic, Walter Offutt and perimeter shooter Nick Kellogg. The key for the Bobcats: defending the three.

Michigan may not have the most impressive percentage from beyond the arc (35.2%) but that doesn't deter John Beilein's team from taking the shot, as they score 36.8% of their points via the three. Trey Burke has been outstanding at the point for Michigan, and joining him on the perimeter are Stu Douglass, Tm Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak. If Jordan Morgan can control things in the paint that would bode well for the Wolverines as neither team is particularly good in the rebounding department. Ohio also forces more than 17 turnovers a game, but with Michigan averaging just 10.9 something has to give there. How well Ohio defends the three will likely determine the outcome.

Other games in Nashville
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas; 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure; 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(5) Temple vs. (12) USF; 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Omaha: (7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
7:27 PM EST, truTV

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the day due to the point guard position. Saint Mary's relies heavily on Matthew Dellavedova and rightfully so, as the WCC Player of the Year leads the team in both points and assists. On the other side is senior Lewis Jackson, who is one of the toughest players in college basketball. The Boilermakers need Jackson to keep Dellavedova out of his comfort zone on the floor, forcing him to both take challenged shots and make passes from tougher angles. If Jackson can do that the Boilers are more than capable of winning.

Also of note are seniors Robbie Hummel (Purdue) and Rob Jones (Saint Mary's), with the latter being virtually a guaranteed double-double for much of the season. Hummel's bounced back from two ACL tears to lead the Boilermakers in scoring, and he'll have to continue that today. The Gaels also have Brad Waldow inside, and off the bench Clint Steindl can make teams pay with his ability to knock down the perimeter shot. Having Stephen Holt go down didn't derail Saint Mary's on their way to the WCC regular season and tournament titles, and they're more than capable of getting to the Sweet 16 as well.

Other games in Omaha
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia; 2:10 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Memphis vs Saint Louis: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 21:23:18 -0700

(8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis: West Region

Records

Memphis 26-8, 13-3 C-USA (Regular-season and Conference Tournament Champions)

Saint Louis 25-7, 12-4 A-10 (At large)

Time: 6:50 p.m. Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio

Winner will face: (1) Michigan State or (16) Long Island, Sunday

Rankings

Memphis No. 29 AP; No. 27 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Saint Louis No. 37 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Memphis 17

Saint Louis 31

Line: Memphis -3½ (O/U 129)

Players to Watch

Memphis: G Will Barton, 6-6 So. (18.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 51.1% FG); G Joe Jackson, 6-1 So. (11.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg); F Tarik Black, 6-8 So. (10.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 68.6% FG). After a slow start and erratic playing time, Black has been outstanding in the Tigers’ stretch run. He has made 30 of his last 38 shots and scored 36 points, and had 18 rebounds, four blocks and three steals during the C-USA Tournament.

Saint Louis: F Brian Conklin, 6-6 Sr. (13.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 53.3% FG); G Kwamain Mitchell, 5-10 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg); F Cody Ellis, 6-8 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 39.5% 3s). After being suspended for all of last season, Mitchell returned for his junior year with a vengeance. Mitchell has scored in double-figures in 11 straight games and has had 16 assists during the Billikens’ 2-game A-10 Tourney run.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Memphis: The Tigers are among the handful of most talented teams in the country. They have a ton of offensive weapons and they go seven to eight deep with skilled players. While Memphis was a disappointment early, it has won seven straight, 11-of-12 and 15 of their last 17, winning regular-season and conference tournament titles. The Tigers scored 83 points – and could have scored more – in their last two C-USA tourney games. They shot 59 percent from the floor, 93 percent from the foul line and hit half of their 3s in the championship game win over Marshall. This team is scary explosive and they have held their last five of their last six opponents to 40 percent or under from the floor.

Saint Louis: The Billikens led the A-10 in scoring defense (57.5 ppg) and have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 1.09 points per possession. Much of that is because they can know down 3s, making 226 this year, and they have gotten to the foul line 612 times. Conklin gives Saint Louis toughness and leadership. Mitchell is a dangerous playmaker and scorer and Ellis is a deadly 3-point shooter. The Bills can go 10 deep and nine of the 10 are capable of big games. SLU has a solid 1.23-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and has a plus 2.8 turnover ratio. Oh, and SLU is very well coached.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Memphis: Youth, immaturity and continuity have hindered the Tigers over the past two seasons, but that may be a thing of the past. The Tigers aren’t a great perimeter shooting team. Only two Tigers shoot better than 30 percent from 3. Memphis was out-rebounded by its opponents this season, and they turn the ball over nearly 13 times per game.

Saint Louis: Statistically, the Billikens have no glaring weaknesses. They only out-rebounded opponents by 1.7 per game. They don’t have much of an inside defensive presence and they allow too many offensive rebounds. Their center, Rob Loe, prefers to play on the perimeter. The current Saint Louis players have no NCAA experience.

The Bottom Line: All of the variables indicate that this is a Saint Louis win – or at least a Billiken cover. But these aren’t the same Tigers who accrued negative stats throughout the season. They’re just more athletic and talented than Saint Louis.

The Pick: Memphis 76, Saint Louis 69

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

Eight NCAA Tournament Sleepers

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 09:31:40 -0700

One of the tricky aspects of filling out a bracket is figuring out which team(s) can jump up and spring a surprise or two. Last season two teams from non-Power 6 leagues (Butler and VCU) reached Houston, and throughout the history of the 64/65/68-team era there have been teams who have made runs. Below are eight teams who can make surprising runs in the bracket, some to win a game or two and a couple others capable of getting to New Orleans.

Davidson: Bob McKillop's Wildcats may not have a shooter along the lines of Stephen Curry or a distributor the caliber of Jason Richards, but that doesn't mean that Davidson won't bring some talented pieces to the Dance. Forwards Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks have played very well this season, and guards Nike Cochran and J.P. Kuhlman were two of the best perimeter players in the SoCon. Going eight deep with five players in double figures can be tough for opponents who aren't familiar with Davidson, who is more than capable of pulling off an upset.

Detroit: The Titans finished third in the Horizon League during the regular season, but they played very well in grabbing the conference's automatic bid. And Ray McCallum Sr. doesn't lack for talent, beginning with his point guard (and son) Ray McCallum Jr. McCallum Jr. has improved as the season's worn on, doing a better job of picking his spots when it comes to running the show. Big men Eli Holman and LaMarcus Lowe are athletic interior players you don't always see in a conference like the Horizon. Depending on the two-seed, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Titans were to give their opponent fits.

Harvard: Not sure if the Crimson count as a true sleeper given the amount of attention on Tommy Amaker's program this season, but in favor of the argument they are making Harvard's first NCAA appearance since 1944. Forwards Kyle Casey and Keith Wright are one of the best front court tandems that doesn't get enough press, and Oliver McNally and Laurent Rivard lead the way on the perimeter. Harvard certainly didn't duck anyone in the non-conference portion of their schedule, doing so with this time of the year in mind.

Lehigh: Brett Reed has one of the best players in the country in guard C.J. McCollum, who leads the Mountain Hawks in points and rebounding while ranking second on the team in assists. But it's not just McCollum that teams should be worried about, as forwards Holden Grenier and Gabe Knutson are both averaging double figures. Lehigh's problem is that their strength of schedule could land them a seed lower than anticipated. But unlike last season's Patriot League representative (Bucknell), Lehigh has a guard in McCollum who can make plays on his own. If they can stay above the 16 line, the Mountain Hawks will have a shot at getting a win.

Memphis: The Conference USA champions took some swings at big non-conference wins early in the season and missed, with the conclusion of many being that they're too immature to turn things around. Well, Josh Pastner's team is playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. Knock them due to their conference if you like, but that shouldn't erase the fact that according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers this is a team in the Top 25 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. Will Barton's played like an All-America for much of the season and the emergence of Chris Crawford has relieved some of the pressure on Joe Jackson to run the offense.

Montana: Wayne Tinkle's Grizzlies are experienced (and most everyone will be back next season) and led by a pair of guards who can cause fits in Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Cherry was named Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and it one of the nation's leaders in steals, and the versatile Jamar was named Big Sky tournament MVP. Add in two quality frontcourt players in Derek Selvig and Mathias Ward and you've got a team capable of winning in the Big Dance. Montana's hot as well as they've won 14 straight games, and according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers they had the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the Big Sky (41st nationally).

Saint Louis: Rick Majerus' Billikens have been the second-best team in the Atlantic 10 this season, but to be fair they may have flown under the radar nationally thanks to the presence of Temple and Xavier. But there shouldn't be any doubt as to whether or not SLU can play, with the tough Brian Conklin being the anchor inside and Kwamain Mitchell leading the way on the perimeter. Before their loss to Xavier in the A-10 semis the Billikens won nine of ten games, and in Majerus they've got one of the best game coaches in the country.

South Dakota State: Nate Wolters didn't play his best game of the season in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Illinois to win the Summit League, but he's been enough of a constant to where what he did against WIU shouldn't matter much. Scott Nagy's got an experienced team who helped grow the program this season, their first as a full Division I member. Griffan Callahan and Jordan Dykstra are both averaging double figures, and their presence has helped to improve the performance of both Wolters and the team as the season's worn on.

Conference Semifinals Predictions: ACC, A10, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:48:37 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference semifinals game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (28-4, 14-2) vs. (5) North Carolina State (22-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – UNC 74-55; Feb. 21 – UNC 86-74*. RPI: UNC 3, NC State 44. Analysis: Don’t know what to make of the Henson wrist injury. Stay away from this game. If you must, take the Heels. Line: North Carolina -11. Pick: North Carolina 87, North Carolina State 74.

(2) Duke (27-5, 13-3) vs. (3) Florida State (22-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 21 – Florida State 76-73*; Feb. 23 – Duke 74-66*. RPI: Duke 4, Florida State 22. Analysis: FSU covers and could beat the Devils again. Pick: Florida State 63, Duke 59.

ATLANTIC 10 SEMIFINALS: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(4) St. Bonaventure (18-11, 10-6) vs. (8) Massachusetts (22-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 8 – UMass 76-67. RPI: UMass 71, St. Bonaventure 86. Analysis: No clue what to make of this line, but St. Bona’s Andrew Nicholson and Minutemen PG Chaz Williams are both really good. Williams is clutch. Line: St. Bonaventure -3. Pick: Massachusetts 73, St. Bonaventure 72.

(2) Saint Louis (25-6, 12-4) vs. (3) Xavier (20-11, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – Saint Louis 73-68*; Feb. 28 – Saint Louis 70-59. RPI: Saint Louis 29, Xavier 59. Analysis: The Billikens will be facing a desperate Xavier squad. They’ll pass the test. Pick: Saint Louis 68, Xavier 61.

BIG TEN SEMIFINALS: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (25-7, 13-5) vs. (4) Wisconsin (24-8, 12-6)

Tipoff: 1:40 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Michigan State 63-60*; Feb. 16 – Michigan State 69-55. RPI: Michigan State 5, Wisconsin 20. Analysis: Baffled by this line. Rob Wilson isn’t going to score 30 points again. Line: Michigan State -4. Pick: Michigan State 58, Wisconsin 48.

(2) Ohio State (26-6, 13-5) vs. (3) Michigan (24-8, 13-5)

Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 29 – Ohio State 64-49; Feb. 18 – Michigan 56-51. RPI: Ohio State 7, Michigan 10. Analysis: When the Buckeyes play well, they’re really good – and they’re playing well now. Pick: Ohio State 74, Michigan 61.

SEC SEMIFINALS: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (31-1, 16-0) vs. (4) Florida (23-9, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Kentucky 78-58; March 4 – Kentucky 74-59*. RPI: Kentucky 1, Florida 21. Analysis: After the regular-season finale, it is obvious this is a bad matchup for the Gators. Line: Kentucky -9½. Pick: Kentucky 79, Florida 66.

(3) Vanderbilt (21-10, 10-6) vs. (7) Mississippi (20-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 16 – Vanderbilt 102-76*. RPI: Vanderbilt 28, Ole Miss 48. Analysis: No contest. Pick: Vanderbilt 81, Mississippi 66.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 182-141-5

Bracketology Update: The Dreaded 8 and 9 Seeds

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 11:46:26 -0800

While getting an 8 or 9 seed as compared to a 10 or 11 seems like an accomplishment, its actually a kiss of death. #1 seeds are usually head and shoulders above the rest of the field, and 8-9 winners get stuck playing them in the 2nd round.

In my latest Bracketology projection, the following 8 teams are the unfortunate 8-9 seeds. For each team, I answer the following two questions: How can they earn 6 or 7 seeds? How can they drop to 10 or 11 seeds?

Alabama (20-10, 9-7, #32 RPI)

How can they rise? A win over South Carolina would not help Alabama's stature, so they can only rise if they then go on to beat Florida in the next round.

How can they fall? While the South Carolina game won't help Alabama's cause, it could certainly hurt it. Bama hasn't beaten a Top 50 team since November and their locker room is far from settled. A drop to a 10 seed is not out of the question with a loss.

Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6, #69 RPI)

How can they rise? Cincy just tipped off against Georgetown, which would certainly be a resume boosting win. But considering their low RPI and weak schedule, I don't think this one win would push them into a 7 seed. However, if they won and then beat Syracuse tomorrow, it would change everything.

How can they fall? As I just mentioned, Cincy's overall resume is far from sparkling. A loss could conceivably drop them into a 10 seed, but no lower than that.

Iowa St (22-9, 12-6, #31 RPI)

How can they rise? Now that Iowa St has garnered Top 25 respect and their RPI is creeping up towards the 20's, they have a good shot to move into a 6 or 7 seed with a win over Texas tonight. Even if they lost, there's a chance they could rise into the 7's depending on how other teams fare this week.

How can they fall? Even if Iowa St lost tonight, their solid conference success should ensure that they wouldn't drop below a 9 seed at worst.

Kansas St (21-10, 10-8, #43 RPI)

How can they rise? After losing to Baylor today, Kansas St's season is over, so there's nowhere to go but down.

How can they fall? Although a loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals is not terribly impressive, Kansas St is probably locked into this range. Losing to a Top 15 team in Baylor doesn't really hurt their resume, and the Wildcats RPI shouldn't drop by much.

New Mexico (23-6, 10-4, #34 RPI)

How can they rise? Beating Air Force tonight wouldn't help, so they'd need to go on and beat UNLV or Wyoming in the next round.

How can they fall? Considering New Mexico has been a fringe Top 25 team with a couple of marquee wins and a solid RPI, they won't fall below a 9 seed.

Purdue (20-11, 10-8, #44 RPI)

How can they rise? Purdue, the 6 seed in the Big Ten, faces #11 Nebraska tonight. To move up, Purdue would need to win this game and then also beat Ohio St tomorrow.

How can they fall? Although Purdue has a very solid resume, nothing really wows you. If they lost to Nebraska, a top 10 seed isn't out of the question though nothing much beyond that.

Saint Louis (23-6, 12-4, #30 RPI)

How can they rise? Saint Louis faces a very solid La Salle squad in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. With a win and help, SLU could easily earn a 7 seed.

How can they fall? Unless teams like Mississippi St, Cal, or Northwestern go on epic runs, its hard to see SLU falling below the 8-9 range even if they lost to La Salle.

Virginia (22-8, 9-7, #42 RPI)

How can they rise? Virginia awaits the winner of NC State/Boston College. Considering Virginia's best win in two months is over NC State, I'm not sure how much beating them again would help. Of course, if Virginia somehow made their way to the ACC finals, that would help.

How can they fall? Considering Vrginia hasn't won a Top 100 game since January, it wouldn't take much for them to fall. In fact, if they lost to NC State/BC tomorrow, an 11 seed would not be out of the question.

Montana vs. Weber State: Tuesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 01:02:24 -0800

Horizon League First Round Preview

Conference tournament play in the Big Sky is just days away (Saturday) but there's some very important business to attend to before the six-team field is complete: decide the regular season champion. Montana (22-6, 14-1) and Weber State (23-4, 14-1) have been the class of the league, as expected, from start to finish and that should make for an entertaining affair in Missoula. Damian Lillard (24.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.1 apg) and company held serve on their home floor, and a win Tuesday night would not only give them the regular season title but also guarantee hosting the semifinals and title game of the Big Sky tournament.

Accomplishing that task will be far easier said than done for the preseason favorite to win the Big Sky, as Wayne Tinkle's Grizzlies are 13-2 at home this season. Montana may not have the nation's leading scorer but in senior Will Cherry (15.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg) they have one of the best perimeter defenders in the conference. Lillard and Cherry will receive a great deal of attention given their skill sets and experience, but it would be wise to take a look at their respective partners in crime as well.

Alongside Lillard, who also does a good job of setting up his teammates for quality looks, is Scott Bamforth and he's averaging 15.2 points per game and shooting 44.1% from the field. Bamforth is one of the primary beneficiaries when Lillard is able to penetrate gaps in the defense, knocking down three-pointers at a 41.2% clip. Freshman Gelaun Wheelwright has improved his play as the season's worn on and received more minutes as a result while guard Jordan Richardson and forward Byron Fulton are also capable of knocking down open shots.

For Montana there's sophomore Kareem Jamar, whose versatility allows Cherry to do a variety of things on the offensive end of the floor. In addition to averaging 13.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, Jamar leads the Grizzlies in assists with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.81. Undersized forward Art Steward is shooting 41% from three and averaging 9.5 points per game while guard Shawn Stockton is called upon more for perimeter depth and defense than his scoring prowess.

The winner could ultimately be decided in the front court despite the quality guards, and this was where Weber State was able to distance themselves in the first meeting. Frank Otis, who would be lost for an extended period of time in the Wildcats' next game, scored seven points in his return from a knee injury and Darin Mahoney accounted for eight points and nine rebounds. Adding those numbers to the 12 and six rebounds put up by Kyle Tresnak ended up being too much for the Grizzlies to deal with as no players besides Cherry and Jamar reached double figures.

Mahoney may not be much of a scorer but the senior has no problem mixing it up on the glass, as he leads Weber State with an average of 6.2 rebounds per game. Neither team is a great rebounding team, and it would be fair to say that the Grizzles could be in trouble in this department. Montana grabs 1.1 fewer rebounds per game than their opponents and they allow 10.9 offensive rebounds per game (rate of 31.3%). If Derek Selvig and the other Montana big men don't take care of business on the glass Weber State, who is average as an offensive rebounding team, could end up with a few more possessions than expected.

Cherry and Jamar do a solid job of helping out Selvig and Steward on the boards, as Jamar ranks second on the team in rebounds per game. Weber State's been the better offensive team while Montana's been better on the defensive end in spite of their rebounding woes, which will make for a fun contest to watch. While the other four teams in the Big Sky tournament have the ability to knock either team off there's no reason to believe that the Wildcats and Grizzlies won't meet again with an NCAA berth on the line. The only question is where that game will take place, and we'll get the answer on Tuesday night.

Outside of the big game in the Big Sky and the beginning of the Horizon League tournament it's all about the bubble on Tuesday night, with Xavier's trip to Saint Louis being the contest that stands out. Few (if any) thought that the Musketeers would find themselves in their current spot before the season began but for whatever reason Chris Mack's team is in desperate need of wins. Saint Louis is in better position at this stage but the Billikens can ill-afford to rest on their laurels.

Rick Majerus' team has been solid defensively with Brian Conklin leading the way inside, and Kenny Frease has to hold his own with the senior of Xavier is to win. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons are definitely talented but who steps up to provide the intangibles that have been missing all season long? Whether or not the Musketeers get an answer will ultimately determine whether or not they make the Big Dance.

Connecticut fell just short of a win over Syracuse on Saturday night, and they'd better be prepared both mentally and physically for their trip to Providence. The Friars may lack depth and they've had a tough first season under Ed Cooley, but the Vincent Council-led bunch can be dangerous especially in front of a raucous home crowd. Add in one of the Big East's best freshmen in LaDontae Henton and the Huskies stand the chance of getting picked off if they sleepwalk into The Dunk. Also of importance to the bubble is UCF's trip to Memphis, and with the Tigers looking like a lock to dance this a good opportunity for Donnie Jones' Knights.

Florida can lock up second place in the SEC with a win at Vanderbilt, but given the Gators' showing at Georgia on Saturday who knows which team will show up at Memorial Gymnasium. The Commodores put forth a good fight at Kentucky before falling, and this is a good opportunity for Kevin Stallings' team to pick up a quality win before the conference tournament. And in the Big Ten, Michigan State looks to seal the outright Big Ten title with a win at Indiana. Minnesota may have won at IU but that's the Hoosiers' lone home loss this season so we'll see what happens.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM (3) Duke at Wake Forest (ESPNU)
7:00 PM (5) Michigan State at (20) Indiana (ESPN)
9:00 PM (13) Florida at Vanderbilt (ESPN)
8:00 PM Minnesota at (15) Wisconsin (BTN)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Ole Miss at Arkansas (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Kansas State at Texas A&M (ESPN3)
7:00 PM DePaul at West Virginia (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Wright State at Butler
7:00 PM Loyola (IL) at Detroit
7:00 PM Connecticut at Providence (ESPN3)
7:05 PM Green Bay at Youngstown State
8:00 PM Illinois-Chicago at Milwaukee
9:00 PM Xavier at Saint Louis
9:00 PM Weber State at Montana (Altitude)
9:00 PM UCF at Memphis
9:05 PM Idaho State at Eastern Washington
9:30 PM TCU at Wyoming (The Mtn.)
10:05 PM Northern Colorado at Portland State

Poll: Who Will Be the Best RPI Team Not to Make the Tourney?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 10:26:26 -0800