Missouri

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 13:30:12 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 31 to 45.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31-45

31 UNLV UNLV loses two starters, though returnees Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall are two of the MWC's top talents. The hope is that incoming freshman Katin Reinhardt (7th best shooting guard by Rivals) helps offset the loss of sharp-shooter Chace Stanback.

32 Arizona While Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson are solid returning players, its really all about the newcomers. In Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, and Grant Jerrett, Arizona welcomes 4 Top 50 recruits with pro potential. The team's lack of star point guard could hold them back however.

33 Davidson Already the Southern Conference's elite team, Davidson should be even better next year with everyone of note returning. De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen form a solid inside-outside tandem, and with a little bit of luck in non-conference play, Davidson could be a Top 25 team. This is the year Davidson reaps the rewards of the Steph Curry recruiting bounce.

34 Tennessee Once Jarnell Stokes joined the team, Tennessee played like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch. With the likes of Golden and Maymom returning, the Vols could even surpass this projection.

35 Ohio Everyone returns from a team that was just a few possessions away from the Elite Eight. Despite that, Ohio will not be a lock for the MAC title with solid squads returning across the league. Perhaps the league can potentially return to multiple-bid territory?

36 Washington It all comes down to the Draft for Washington. Freshman Tony Wroten and sophomore Terrence Ross are potential 1st Round Draft picks. I'm assuming for this prediction, that one of the two returns. If both return, UW could certainly make a push for the Pac-12 title.

37 Georgetown While Georgetown had a Top 15 season, they lose their best guard in Jason Clark and best big in Henry Sims. Hollis Thompson should return along with emerging talent Otto Porter to form a solid frontcourt. 5-star recruit D'Vauntes Smith Rivera (ranked 22nd by Rivals) is the key however. He replaces Clark as the team's main cog in the backcourt.

38 Cincinnati Cincinnati heads into next season without seniors Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon. Besides losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, Gates was also their leading rebounder and main interior presence. With little recruiting help on the way, it will be key that Sean Kilpatrick continues to emerge as a bona fine star.

39 Colorado St The Rams were probably never as good as their RPI suggested, but they still had a damn good season. Will Bell is a minor loss, but the key cogs return for another shot at an MWC title. A pair of 3-star recruits join the fray as well, a better recruiting haul than usual.

40 St. Joseph's With the entire roster returning, St. Joseph's should be a contender for the Atlantic 10 crown. Anything less than a tourney bid would be extremely disappointing.

41 Murray St Although Isaiah Canaan is a star, others will need to step up now that Donte Poole, Ivan Aska, and Jewaun Long depart. In those three seniors, Murray loses almost 45% of its scoring. The program does potentially welcome the OVC's best recruiting class however.

42 UMASS Although leading rebounder Sean Carter graduates, UMASS should be in the A10's upper echelon. Do-everything sophomore guard Chaz Williams has been lighting up the NIT, and will be a contender for next season's A10 Player of the Year.

43 South Dakota St With no seniors on the roster, South Dakota St will be hoping to improve on their 1st round NCAA Tournament loss. Although Nate Wolters improved his all-around game this year, he needs to recapture the long-range shot that propelled him to 40% from three his sophomore year.

44 Purdue In Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson, and Ryne Smith, Purdue loses almost 50% of its scoring production, as well as their leaders in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Although there is young talent waiting to breakout and a top-25 recruiting class on the way, Purdue will need another year before they're a major contender.

45 Missouri Frank Haith will somehow try and rebound from this year's shock 1st round exit without Denmon, English, Ratliffe, or Pressey. Although Missouri is loading up on solid (though not amazing) freshmen, it will take another year or two before the new squad finds its identity.

>> Continue to Teams 46 to 60.

Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 30

Missouri vs Norfolk St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 06:13:29 -0700

(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State: West Region

Records

Missouri 30-4, 14-4 Big 12 (Conference Tournament Champions)

Norfolk State 25-9, 13-3 (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 4:40 p.m. Friday

TV: TNT

Location: CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Neb.

Winner will face: (7) Florida or (10) Virginia, Sunday

Rankings

Missouri No. 3 AP; No. 3 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Missouri 11

Norfolk State 132

Line: Missouri -21½ (O/U 145)

Players to Watch

Missouri: G Marcus Denmon, 6-3 Sr. (17.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 40.9% 3s); F Ricardo Ratliffe, 6-8 Sr. (13.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 69.3% FG); G Phil Pressey, 5-10 So. (10 ppg, 6.3 apg, 2.1 spg). Pressey, who was strangely left off of the All-Big 12 team, is the engine that makes the Tigers go. In Saturday’s 90-75 Big 12 Tournament title game win over Baylor, Pressey proved it with 15 points, eight assists, five rebounds and a pair of steals.

Norfolk State: C Kyle O’Quinn, 6-10 Sr. (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 58.3% FG); G Pendarvis Williams, 6-6 So. (11.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.5 apg); F Rob Johnson, 6-7 Sr. (6.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 45.7% FG). O’Quinn earned the MEAC Player of the Year honor by leading the Spartans in minutes played, scoring, rebounding, blocked shots (2.7 per game) and field goal percentage. His 10.4 rebounds per game is 10^th in the country.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Missouri: The Tigers are an incredible shooting team: 50.4 percent from the floor, which is second in the country, 39.5 from deep (14^th nationally) and 76.6 from the foul line (eighth in the country). They made more free throws than their opponents attempted (546-516). They have a 16.2-to-10.3 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 14.4-to-10.3 turnover margin. Missouri shares the ball well and five different Tigers average double-figures scoring.

Norfolk State: The Spartans enter Friday’s game having won seven straight and nine of their last 10. They lost a 2-point game to 3-seed Marquette on a neutral floor and beat TCU by 13 points. This is a Norfolk State team that believes it can be competitive against top teams. O’Quinn and provides scoring and toughness.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Missouri: Although Michael Dixon and Matt Pressey are very good off of the bench, that’s it as far as Missouri’s depth. The Tigers have just two regulars who are 6-8 or taller and no one taller than 6-9. Six-foot-6 Kim English has been forced to play power forward most of the season. While he’s done a fine job in doing so, bigger, stronger teams could take advantage of this.

Norfolk State: The Spartans are not a good offensive team. They score just 69 points per game in one of the worst conferences in the country. They are shooting 44.3 percent from the floor and just 31.1 percent from beyond the 3-point line. Despite O’Quinn’s rebounding ability, Norfolk out-rebounded opponents just 39.8-to-38.3 per game. And the Spartans turn the ball over 3.3 times more per game than they have assists.

The Bottom Line: This is one of the biggest mismatches of the first round. Not even 22 points can keep me from taking Mizzou.

The Pick: Missouri 81, Norfolk State 51

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

NCAA Tournament Preview: Backcourts to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 08:28:55 -0700

It's stated all the time this season. Guard play makes all the difference in the NCAA tournament, and to be honest it's hard to argue with that statement. So who are some of the top guard groups in this year's field? Here are 12 below along with a few superlatives. Not all of the usual suspects make the list, but try not to automatically dismiss the less heralded names either.

South Region

1. Duke
While this group does struggle at times on the defensive end of the floor there's no doubt that the Blue Devils' guards can fill it up. Austin Rivers is their best playmaker, and as long as the ACC Rookie of the Year can properly balance scoring with creating for his teammates he's very tough to stop. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are both dead-eye shooters, and Tyler Thornton is the best defender. But as noted above, if the defense isn't there Duke could find themselves in trouble.

2. Xavier
The Musketeers have to get past a tough Notre Dame team before a possible matchup with Duke (don't sleep on Lehigh's C.J. McCollum), but despite their struggles throughout the season Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons aren't to be ignored. Holloway runs the show and Lyons mans the two, and they can also call on Brad Redford for perimeter shooting.

3. UNLV
Most are likely going to wonder why the Runnin' Rebels are on this list and not, say, UConn but the fact of the matter is that Dave Rice's group has been more consistent throughout the season. Anthony Marshall is one of the best athletes in the country and Oscar Bellfield's impact tends to be overlooked by many. Add in a very good defender in Justin Hawkins and shooter Kendall Wallace and Dave Rice has a corps of guards capable of winning multiple games in the tournament.

Guards you'll love: C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Nate Wolters (South Dakota State)
Both are among the nation's best scorers, and Wolters leads the Jackrabbits in points, rebounds and assists. Each one has a matchup in which they could become household names, with McCollum taking on Duke and Wolters matching up with Baylor.

Best defender: Victor Oladipo (Indiana)
Good luck getting past the athletic Oladipo, whose offensive game has gotten closer to his defensive skills as the season's progressed. At the least the sophomore could be a first team All-Big Ten player next year.

The difference-maker: Marquis Teague (Kentucky)
If Kentucky's to reach their full potential (win a national title) the play of Teague will be key. He had an inconsistent SEC tournament but played his best basketball as the regular season came to a close.

The enigmatic group: Connecticut
Talent-wise there may not be a better group in the region. But despite the talent of Ryan Boatright, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier there are questions, most importantly will they be "there" for the entire 40 minutes. Drifting in and out of a game will get you beat this time of the year.

East Region

1. Syracuse
The Orange at the least can go three deep with starters Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche with one of the nation's best reserves in Dion Waiters coming off the bench. The key to a national title will be Jardine, because while the Orange can easily plug someone into his role skill-wise if the fifth-year senior's struggling they can't replace the experience. And with Fab Melo out the guards become even more important.

2. Ohio State
This region has two elite defenders with the Buckeyes' Aaron Craft being one (more on the other later), and William Buford could become the program's all-time leading scorer with a deep run in the tournament. The Buckeyes aren't particularly deep on the perimeter (Jordan Sibert backs up Craft) but they are talented.

3. Florida State
If Luke Loucks takes care of the basketball this group has the ability to be even better than third best in the region. Michael Snaer has beenvery good all season long and the midseason addition of Ian Miller definitely helped on the offensive end. Deividas Dulkys can get hot from deep, as he did in their regular season win over North Carolina, and all can defend.

Guards you'll love: Will Cherry (Montana) and Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
Cherry's the other defensive star in this region, as he was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Big Sky and is among the best in the country in steals. Pangos is just a freshman, and his first introduction to college basketball came in the form of his impressive shooting performance in Gonzaga's tip-off marathon appearance.

Best defender: Craft

The difference-maker: Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin)
Wisconsin's been a team some have pegged as a possible upset victim, and if the Badgers are to not only avoid that but win multiple games their senior point guard will have to be at his best.

The enigmatic group: Cincinnati
The Bearcats were able to make a shift to a smaller lineup comfortably with the emergence (and return to health) of Jaquon Parker, and they've been a better team as a result. But given the number of threes that Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright get to take, the Bearcats need them to be on if they're to make a run.

Midwest Region

1. Temple
North Carolina has Kendall Marshall and Kansas can point to Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson. But the three-headed attack that Fran Dunphy has could be the best backcourt in the region. Juan Fernandez, Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt can all do a variety of things, making them interchangable in a sense. If they're on the Owls have the ability to not only reach the Sweet 16 but possibly go even further.

2. Kansas
Tyshawn Taylor shouldn't be questioned at this point, as the senior's matured and made better decisions with the basketball at this point in the season. The guy the Jayhawks need to be a factor over the next couple of weeks is Elijah Johnson, as he can relieve some of the pressure on the shoulders of Taylor and Thomas Robinson. Travis Releford has also been a key cog this season, and that will need to continue if Kansas is to reach New Orleans.

3. San Diego State
The Aztecs go four deep on the perimeter and all four can hurt you in different ways. Xavier Thames runs the show at the point and Chase Tapley is a solid scorer at the two, and all Jamaal Franklin did was win Mountain West Player of the Year. Last but not least is James Rahon, a key reserve in their Elite 8 run last season who can not only knock down perimeter shots but also do the little things.

Guys you'll love: D.J. Cooper (Ohio) and Kerron Johnson (Belmont)
Cooper was a key figure in the Bobcats' whipping of Georgetown in the 2010 tournament, and he's improved as a scorer while remaining a very good distributor. Johnson leads the way for Belmont, a team that's been a popular selection when it comes to teams that can pull off an upset (or two).

Best defender: Jorge Gutierrez (California)
Gutierrez won Pac-12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year for his efforts and with good reason. The senior is one guard few will be looking forward to seeing on the other side of the floor, beginning with USF on Wednesday night.

The difference-maker: Kendall Marshall (North Carolina)
The best passer in the region will be the guy who determines the winner of the Midwest. Marshall has also been more willing to punish sagging defenders by way of the jump shot, an aspect of his game that's improved over the course of the season.

Emerging star: Lorenzo Brown (NC State)
For a short time some asked if Brown was in fact the best point guard in the ACC. He's that talented, and with his size the sophomore has the potential to be a matchup problem for teams this week. And he's only going to get better with more experience.

West Region

1. Missouri
The Tigers navigated Laurence Bowers' torn ACL quite well thanks to their guards, going 30-4 and winning the Big 12 tournament title. Phil Pressey runs the show while Marcus Denmon and Kim English are the leading scorers. There's also Phil's older brother Matt and off the bench Michael Dixon Jr. is one of the best sixth men in the country. English's ability to produce at the four is tough to match, and unless a team has Jamar Samuels-like presence (Kansas State beat the Tigers twice for this reason) Mizzou could be headed to New Orleans.

2. Florida
The Gators are also deep on the perimeter but the key for them will be the decision making of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. If those two are unselfish and get the ball to Bradley Beal and Patric Young then Florida has the look of a team that can get to a Final Four. When they don't things tend to go wrong. Virginia's pack line defense will force Florida to make perimeter jumpers, but that's one of the things they do best.

3. Murray State
We all know about Isaiah Canaan by this point and rightfully so as the OVC Player of the Year is also an All-American. But Donte Poole can play as well, averaging 14.2 points per game. Add in senior Jewuan Long and you've got a nice group of guard capable of leading the Racers to the second weekend of the tournament.

Guys you'll love: Jason Brickman (LIU Brooklyn) and Casper Ware (Long Beach State)
Tried to go a bit off the radar with one of these selections, and with the high tempo that the Blackbirds prefer the sophomore from Texas will be fun to watch against Michigan State. Ware's been outstanding for four years and finally gets his shot at the game's biggest stage after two straight losses in the Big West tournament final.

Best defender: Darius Johnson-Odom (Marquette)
If Long Beach State's Larry Anderson were 100% he could qualify as would teammate James Ennis. But DJO, who is also one of the best scorers in the field, is also a good defender who can get out in passing lanes. With the Golden Eagles lacking a defensive presence in the paint the defensive effort of Johnson-Odom on the perimeter becomes even more important.

The difference-maker: Joe Jackson (Memphis)
One of the reasons why Josh Pastner's team has played so well down the stretch is that they've allowed Chris Crawford to take on more of the distribution duties. That in turn has relieved some of the pressure on Jackson, but he's still going to have to play well if the Tigers are to go out and prove that they were underseeded.

Another difference-maker: Peyton Siva (Louisville)
The question of which Siva will we see in Portland is similar to which Louisville team will we see: the one that was inconsistent during Big East play and struggled to score, or the one that won four games in New York City last week. If Siva's on and making good decisions the Cardinals are capable of beating anyone. If not then they're also capable of losing to anyone.

Big 12 Pre-Tournament Teleconference Notes

Jon Teitel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 18:38:41 -0700

With the Big 12 holding it's pre-tournament teleconference on Monday morning, CHN writer Jon Teitel took some notes of what a few coaches had to say about their teams and matchups. Below are Baylor's Scott Drew, Missouri's Frank Haith and Kansas State's Frank Martin.

Baylor's Scott Drew (3-seed, South Region)

On the role league played in their preparation: "The Big 12 tournament helps us prepare for the NCAA tournament. I joke that the new uniforms are helping us win because now we know who we are passing to!"

On the title game loss to Missouri: "Losing to Missouri in the title game hopefully will provide us with a little extra motivation."

Thoughts on South Dakota State: "Anyone in the NCAA tournament like South Dakota State is a great team, and winning 27 games is hard to do. They are an outstanding shooting team and fundamentally sound."

On Pierre Jackson's tournament experience at the JUCO level: "I'm sure Pierre Jackson's title experience will make the transition to the NCAA tournament easier, but I doubt that he had police escorts from the hotel to the arena!"

On the seeds for Missouri and Kansas: "I thought Kansas and Missouri both had cases to be a #1 seed, and I was disappointed that neither of them got it."

Missouri's Frank Haith (2-seed, West Region)

Opening thoughts: "We have just been trying to do a little scouting on Norfolk State. We are focused on where we are now and just trying to win in the tournament."

On his team's health: "We got nicked up a little bit in the Big 12 tournament, but playing on Friday instead of Thursday will help us out a lot. When you play three straight days with a 7-man rotation it takes a toll, but it is also very impressive. When you look at what CT did last year, I hope we are prepared for the task at hand."

On their seed/location: "We are fine with a #2 seed and are excited with where we are at. If we could have played closer to home in St. Louis that would have been great for us. When we had the Final Four run [at] Texas we got to play in San Antonio."

On his senior leaders: "We have great leadership in Kim English and Marcus Denmon. They love to play the game but they want to win. They listen when you tell them to do something."

On the impact of the three: "The three-point shot is a great equalizer if you are lacking in other areas, as it stretches you out a little bit."

Kansas State's Frank Martin (8-seed, East Region)

Opening thoughts: "Coach Huggins' credibility created the foundation, and we have just continued to build on top of it rather than knock anything down. You have to have people on board who are completely unselfish and fully invested in the team."

On his team's (and the league's) seeding: "I do not have any sour grapes about being in the 8/9 game. For the Big 12 to not get a #1 seed is a little frustrating. Our RPI was in the low 40s, but all our other numbers were in the 20s."

On his upperclassmen: "Jamar Samuels has proven over the past 31 games that he is a more consistent player than he was last year. We will definitely depend on our upperclassmen who have been in the tournament before."

Michigan State Earns a One Seed: West Region Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 07:35:43 -0700

,pdf bracket

The West Region is where the S-curve, a tool used to rank the teams from 1 to 68, went to die apparently and that means some tough matchups on the way to New Orleans. Top-seed Michigan State was rewarded for their non-conference slate and winning the Big Ten tournament crown with the fourth number one seed, and while LIU Brooklyn can pose some problems a 16-seed has never beaten a one. Of greater interest is the 8/9 matchup, which consists of a battle between Memphis and Saint Louis.

Rick Majerus is one of the great tacticians in college basketball and it's going to be interesting to see what he put together in the game preparation when it comes to slowing down a Memphis team playing its best basketball of the year. Josh Pastner has an All-America caliber wing in Will Barton, and the move to make Chris Crawford more of a playmaker has both relieved some of the pressure on Joe Jackson and make the Tigers a better team. Either team can win this one, and either team can also reach the Sweet 16.

Memphis has to be considered one of the most underseeded teams in the field, but while they receive a two-seed the Missouri Tigers likely belong in the discussion as well. The selection committee cited their non-conference strength of schedule as the reason why, but if Frank Haith's team is considered to be the weakest two...well, not really sure what to say about that. But the Tigers, who have one of the best backcourts in the country led by Phil Pressey and Marcus Denmon, are more than capable of winning a national title.

Their pod features a seven-seed in Florida that has enough talent to get to New Orleans, provided guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker make sound decisions. One of those would be to make sure that wing Bradley Beal and power forward Patric Young get more touches. Virginia's been hit hard by the injury bug and outside of Mike Scott really aren't playing well, and 15-seed Norfolk State has Kyle O'Quinn but the Tigers should be fine there. And should Missouri reach the Sweet 16, there's a matchup with a similarly-sized power conference team on the horizon.

Three-seed Marquette has seen Chris Otule (torn ACL) go down for the year and Davante Gardner have to deal with a sprained knee, and while that has limited them in the paint Buzz Williams' team did finish second in the Big East. Jae Crowder, Big East Player of the Year, and Darius Johnson-Odom are two big reasons why, but they're going to need improved play from point guard Junior Cadougan in order to go far. They'll get either BYU or Iona on Thursday, and that matchup is the best First Four contest. Can Iona defend well enough to slow down Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock? Can BYU slow down one of the best offenses in the country led by Scott Machado? That's going to be fun to watch.

Also in Louisville is six-seed Murray State, who's led by junior point guard Isaiah Canaan and he's going to be on more than a few All-America teams. They may not be thrilled with their seed but the Racers did draw a similarly-sized team in Colorado State, but don't sleep on Tim Miles' guards either. Jesse Carr, Wes Eikmeier and Dorian Green can all get it done, but the most important question for the Rams is the health of wing Greg Smith. He missed the Mountain West tournament with a sprained ankle but has been given a clean bill of health for this week.

The four-seed in the West is Louisville, who likely jumped a couple lines with their winning the Big East Championship. But which team makes the trip out the Portland: the one that struggled with turnovers throughout the regular season, or the one that tightened things up in New York? Either way the Cardinals had better be wary of Davidson, as the Wildcats have a very good frontcourt tandem (De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen) to go along with a very good guard in J.P. Kuhlman.

The 5/12 battle will also be fun to watch as New Mexico, who is playing arguably their best basketball of the season, takes on Long Beach State. The Lobos feature Drew Gordon inside and guards Tony Snell and Kendall Williams on the perimeter, but the 49ers can counter with Casper Ware and T.J. Robinson. How well they defend Gordon will be a key factor as will the health of Larry Anderson, who missed the Big West tournament with a knee injury. Michigan State may be on top of the bracket, but there are a number of teams with the talent needed to take them down.

Winner: Missouri

Best second round matchup: Louisville vs. Davidson

All-Region Team
G Marcus Denmon (Missouri)
G Casper Ware (Long Beach State)
G Scott Machado (Iona)
F Jae Crowder (Marquette)
F Draymond Green (Michigan State)

Tournament Poll: Who Is Going To Win the Title?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:34:43 -0700

NCAA Tournament 2012: How To Pick the National Champion

Jon Teitel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:19:48 -0800

CollegeHoops.net's Bracket Tactics will help you pick this year's national champion & finish at the top of your NCAA Bracket pool. These 8 tips are based on previous NCAA Tournament results. At the end, we will use the 8 tips to help narrow down your projected champion to a few odds-on favorites:

TIP #1: No team that lost its conference tournament opening game has never gone on to win the NCAA title the same year.

STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful.

MEANING: Avoid Marquette, Kansas St, and Iowa St before penciling them is as your champ.

TIP #2: All but 4 champs since 1985 have averaged 77+ PPG.

STRATEGY: Stellar offense usually leads the way (last year being an exception.)

MEANING: Consider North Carolina, Missouri, Duke, and Creighton. Be wary of Michigan St, Louisville, Michigan, Georgetown, and Wisconsin.

TIP #3: All but 1 champ since 2006 won their conference tournament before winning the national title.

STRATEGY: There is something to be said for late season momentum.

MEANING: Avoid Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Indiana, Wisconsin to win it all.

TIP #4: Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald's All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.

STRATEGY: Talent rises to the top in national tournaments.

MEANING: Avoid Cincinnati, Murray St, San Diego St to win it all.

TIP #5: Since UNLV won the title in 1990, each of the past 21 champs has been from a power-conference: ACC (8), SEC (5), Big East (4), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).

STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking a mid-major team to win it all

MEANING: Avoid Creighton, Memphis, Murray St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Temple, UNLV

TIP #6: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966, and the last 2 teams entering the NCAA tournament with only 1 loss ended up losing in the title game (2005 IL & 2008 Memphis).

STRATEGY: The pressure of winning so many teams in a row can wear on teams.

MEANING: Kentucky might make the title game, but might not win it all.

TIP #7: Only 2 coaches with 0 to 4 prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985. (Izzo & Fisher)

STRATEGY: Focus on teams with veteran coaches to win it all.

MEANING: Avoid Baylor (Scott Drew: 2 prior appearances), Marquette (Buzz Williams: 3rd appearance), Murray St (Steve Prohm: 1st appearance), and Virginia (Tony Bennett: 2 prior appearances)

TIP #8: Each champ since 2002 has had a Top 75 strength of schedule.

STRATEGY: Stay away from teams that played soft schedules. You have to play the best to know how to beat the best.

MEANING: Avoid Missouri (SOS 86), Creighton (SOS 102), Gonzaga (SOS 78), Saint Mary's (SOS 104) and Murray St (SOS 157)

IN SUMMARY

The team with the most strikes against it is Murray St. Other teams to seriously avoid winning it all include Creighton, Marquette, San Diego St, and Wisconsin. Despite high seeds, be wary of picking Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan St, and Baylor to go all the way. Duke and Missouri have pros and cons, while Kentucky has a better shot. North Carolina and Ohio St might be the best choices.

NCAA Tournament: Who Most Deserves the Fourth #1 Seed?

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 14:40:46 -0800

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0800

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.