bubble

Bracketology Update: Duke Loses, Memphis Rolls, OSU Looking at #1

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 15:41:05 -0800

Here's a look at every game played up until 6 pm on Saturday and how it affects NCAA Tournament Bracketology.

Bubble

North Carolina 69 - NC State 67

What does it mean? UNC should have a #1 seed locked up regardless of whether they beat FSU for the ACC title. NC State is firmly on the bubble, but the fact they were so competitive against UNC could actually be a help. NC St still looks like they should make it as a 12 or 13 seed.

Vanderbilt 65 - Ole Miss 63

What does it mean? Vanderbilt is looking at a 6 seed, and this win probably doesn't change anything. Having won 5 straight, Ole Miss may have been one win short of earning an at-large bid. After this loss, they're probably on the outside looking in.

Xavier 71 - Saint Louis 66

What does it mean? Xavier advances to the A10 final where they'll face Saint Bonaventure. Xavier should be locked into the tournament for now, looking at an 11 seed. This loss doesn't change much for Saint Louis. I had them as an 8 seed going into the day, but the committee could be thinking a 9 or 10 seed.

#1 Seed Battles

Florida St 62 - Duke 59

What does it mean? Duke had been vying for a #1 seed, but that is no longer a possibility. Florida St is probably looking at a 5 seed, but if they went on to beat North Carolina tomorrow, I could see them becoming a 4.

Ohio St 77 - Michigan 55

What does it mean? Ohio St rocked Michigan to advance to the Big Ten final. The Buckeyes could potentially earn a #1 seed if they beat Michigan St for the title. Michigan will be probably hang on to a 3 seed, but could be vulnerable to a 14 like Davidson or the MAC champion.

Kentucky 74 - Florida 71

What does it mean? Kentucky has struggled to dominate teams in the SEC Tournament, but keeps on winning. They're probably locked into the #1 overall seed regardless of what happens in the championship game. Florida is a probable 5 seed, but they could drop to a 6 if Vandy beat Kentucky tomorrow or San Diego St won the MWC tonight.

Title Game

Memphis 83 - Marshall 57

What does it mean? Considering Memphis beat Marshall by 20 on the road, its not a big surprise they blew them out at home either. Memphis rolled through the CUSA Tournament and should be looking at a 7 seed, with 6 as a surprise on the high end and 8 as a surprise on the low end. Marshall will be hoping for an NIT invite.

Potential Spoilers

St Bonaventure 84 - UMASS 80

What does it mean? The Bonnies advance to the A10 finals to face Xavier with automatic-bid on the line. The two met in Cincy back in January, where Xavier won by 13. If St. Bonaventure won, they'd probably be slotted in the 12-13 range and take a spot away from a bubble team.

One-Bid Leagues

Vermont 51 - Stony Brook 43

What does it mean? Vermont's won 14 of 15 games and earned the America East title by winning on the road. Vermont will most likely be looking at a First Four game against Norfolk St or tonight's MEAC winner. They could also conceivably jump past Lamar and earn a spot as a 16 seed in the Tournament proper.

Lamar 70 - McNeese St 49

What does it mean? Lamar earns the Southland's automatic bid and is looking at a 16 seed. At worst, they'll be in a First Four game, and at best they'll jump right into the tournament proper. They'll probably be competing with Vermont of the America East for that distinction.

Norfolk St 73 - Bethune-Cookman 70

What does it mean? Norfolk had a solid season as far as MEAC squads go, but should still be looking at a First Four game against Western Kentucky.

Consensus Ranking: Drexel, Murray, San Diego St Overrated

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 12:24:09 -0800

In the latest Consensus Ranking (CR), Colorado St, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and NC State are the hottest teams over the last 10 days. All four of those squads are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and rising at the right time. Cincinnati also rose 9 spots to 41st and has to be considered a Tournament lock at this point. The bubble team that fell the most was Seton Hall.

According to the CR, Drexel, San Diego St, and Murray St are extremely overrated vs the AP ranking. This is something to consider when you fill out your brackets next week. On the underrated side, Saint Louis and Memphis remain the most underrated. If these two teams get 6 or 7 seeds, they could be very dangerous to 2 or 3 seeds.

The computers like Ohio St as much as AP #2 Syracuse, and think Indiana is better than their AP ranking suggests. In general, the computers think the Big Ten is even better than people realize, with the lone exception being Michigan.

What Is It?
With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

83 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

Rank	Team	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Avg	Last	2 Weeks	AP
1	Kentucky	2	1	1	1.3	1	1	1
2	Ohio St	7	2	2	3.7	3	4	7
3t	Syracuse	1	6	5	4.0	4	2t	2
3t	UNC	3	5	4	4.0	6	6	4
5	Kansas	6	4	3	4.3	5	5	3
6	Michigan St	5	3	6	4.7	2	2t	8
7t	Duke	4	16	10	10.0	7	8	6
7t	Indiana	11	10	9	10.0	13t	13	15
9	Missouri	16	9	7	10.7	9	7	5
10	Wichita St	14	8	11	11.0	8	14	16
11	Baylor	9	14	12	11.7	11t	12	12
12t	Wisconsin	24	7	8	13.0	13t	9t	14
12t	Marquette	8	17	14	13.0	10	11	9
14	Georgetown	17	13	13	14.3	11t	9t	13
15	Memphis	18	11	15	14.7	15t	23	31
16	Michigan	12	19	20	17.0	18	18	10
17	Saint Louis	30	12	17	19.7	19	16	37t
18	Florida	29	18	16	21.0	15	15	22
19	UNLV	10	32	22	21.3	17	19t	20
20	Louisville	20	26	19	21.7	21	21	27
21	New Mexico	34	15	18	22.3	20	17	29
22t	Vanderbilt	28	20	29	25.7	22t	24	32t
22t	Florida St	23	28	26	25.7	26	19t	17
24	Temple	13	34	34	27.0	27	25	21
25	Creighton	22	36	27	28.3	30	28	19
26t	Kansas St	44	21	21	28.7	29	31t	36
26t	California	35	23	28	28.7	28	22
28t	Purdue	41	22	24	29.0	32	40
28t	Gonzaga	25	31	31	29.0	25	26	24
30	Virginia	42	25	23	30.0	24	27	30
31	Alabama	32	29	30	30.3	22t	29
32t	Texas	43	27	25	31.7	34	31t
32t	Iowa St	33	30	32	31.7	31	35t	25
34	St. Mary's	26	42	35	34.3	35	39	26
35	Murray St	19	44	41	34.7	40	46	11
36	UCONN	31	37	37	35.0	33	33
37	Notre Dame	37	38	39	38.0	36	38	23
38	Belmont	60	24	33	39.0	38	44
39t	Harvard	36	40	44	40.0	37	30	37t
39t	Long Beach St	39	39	42	40.0	39	41	35
41t	Cincinnati	59	33	36	42.7	50	52	34
41t	San Diego St	27	55	46	42.7	46	48	18
43	Miami	52	35	43	43.3	44	45
44t	West Virginia	51	43	38	44.0	45	34
44t	VCU	38	45	49	44.0	51t	57	32t
46	BYU	45	49	40	44.7	41	35t
47	Southern Miss	15	68	54	45.7	42t	37
48	Iona	40	53	52	48.3	47	49
49	NC State	55	48	45	49.3	59	53t
50	Seton Hall	64	47	47	52.7	42t	42
51t	South Dakota St	48	56	60	54.7	55	x
51t	Colorado St	21	72	71	54.7	66	69
53t	Drexel	70	41	56	55.7	58	64	28
53t	MTSU	58	59	50	55.7	48	43
55	Northwestern	57	57	55	56.3	49	47
56	Xavier	54	60	57	57.0	53	53t
57	Arizona	77	50	48	58.3	51t	50
58	South Florida	46	65	67	59.3	62	62
59	St. Joseph's	61	64	58	61.0	54	51
60t	Minnesota	87	54	51	64.0	64t	55
60t	Tennessee	78	52	62	64.0	75	x
60t	Oregon	63	63	66	64.0	63	61
63	Washington	68	66	61	65.0	56	58
64	Dayton	74	62	63	66.3	57	75
65t	Stanford	97	51	53	67.0	70	71
65t	Davidson	65	67	69	67.0	61	68
67	La Salle	80	58	65	67.7	69	56
68	Marshall	56	75	76	69.0	73	63
69	Akron	62	79	73	71.3	67t	60
70	Ole Miss	53	80	82	71.7	80	79
71	Ohio	69	74	74	72.3	72	78
72t	Illinois	91	70	59	73.3	60	59
72t	UCF	50	81	89	73.3	76	70
74	Mississippi St	71	83	68	74.0	67t	66
75	Oral Roberts	47	100	80	75.7	64t	65
76	UCLA	129	46	64	79.7	x	x
77	Northern Iowa	73	96	78	82.3	71	67
78	Cleveland St	84	84	81	83.0	74	73
79	Denver	92	76	84	84.0	77	74
80	Nevada	49	103	101	84.3	79	76
81	Virginia Tech	114	86	79	93.0	78	77
82	Wagner	88	115	102	101.7	81	72
83	Arkansas	110	132	110	117.3	82	80

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +25

Murray St +24

San Diego St +23

Notre Dame +14

VCU +12

Saint Mary's +8

Cincinnati +7

Iowa St +7

Creighton +6

Michgan +6

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Saint Louis -20

Memphis -16

Kansas St -10

Vanderbilt -10

Indiana -8 / UNM -8

Teams w/ no votes

California

Purdue

Alabama

Texas

UCONN

Biggest Changes In Last Week:

Rising

Colorado St +15

Tennessee +10

NC State +10

Ole Miss +10

Cincinnati +9

Falling

Illinois -12

Oral Roberts -11

Alabama -9

Seton Hall -8

What do you think? Post comments below, send a tweet to @collegehoopsnet, or follow facebook.com/collegehoopsnet.

Bracketology: Remaining Teams That Can Steal Bids

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 19:55:54 -0800

While bubble teams were able to breathe easier when Murray St and Creighton won close conference titles, the coast is not entirely clear.

Here's a brief look at the remaining teams most likely to "steal" bids from the bubble hopefuls**.

ACC

With UNC and Duke lurking, its hard to imagine a spoiler coming from the ACC, but you never know..

Clemson (16-14, 8-8, RPI #138)

The ACC might be down this year, but .500 in that league still counts for something. The Tigers would need to beat VT in the opening round and then steal one from Duke. Clemson only lost to Duke by 7 at Cameron.

Maryland (16-14, 6-10, RPI #110)

The Terps have an easy opening game against Wake Forest, and they'd they have to beat UNC in the quarterfinals.

Atlantic 10
While Temple and St Louis are locks, there is a ton of parity in the A10. All of these teams deserve more respect than they get nationally and are extremely dangerous in the A10 tournament.

Dayton (20-11, 9-7, #73)

Dayton cruised past GW in the opening round and now faces Xavier. While Xavier is more likely to get an at-large bid, both teams have similar resumes. The loser of that game will be eliminated from at-large contention.

La Salle (210-11, 9-7, #79)

La Salle beat a tough Richmond squad in the opening round and now faces Saint Louis. La Salle struggled against the Billikens earlier in the year, but does have a geographical advantage playing in Atlantic City.

St Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6, #95)

A dangerous squad, St Bonaventure faces bubble team Saint Joseph's Wednesday afternoon. The Bonnies have already beaten Saint Joe's and with Andrew Nicholson leading the way, no one wants to face them.

UMASS (21-10, 9-7, #87)

UMASS topped Duquesne Tuesday night, which sets up an afternoon game with #1 seed Temple. UMASS took Temple to OT a few weeks, so they're far from scared.

Big East

UCONN showed that its not impossible to run through the Big East Tournament from a Tuesday start.

Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13, #98)

Perhaps there is a little bit of magic left from this preseason top 25 team that struggled mightily.

Big Ten
These 3 teams have had their moments during the season, and would need to go on epic runs to win the league.

Illinois (17-14, 6-12, #82)

As bad as Illinois has been, how many teams have beaten the likes of Michigan St, Ohio St, and Gonzaga. The Illini would need Brandon Paul to go off for 40 every game in Indy..

Iowa (16-15, 8-10, #131)

Iowa has been surprisingly competitive this year, and has beaten Wisconsin twice along with beating Michigan and Indiana. They face Illinois in round one, the winner could have great momentum going forward.

Minnesota (18-13, 6-12, #81)

Once considered a potential tourney team, Minnesota's season went south in a hurry. They face bubble team Northwestern in round one and could seriously hurt the Wildcats at-large hopes.

Conference USA

While the RPI suggests Memphis and Southern Miss are by far the class of this league, these teams certainly have to be feared. If not for the tournament being in Memphis, the odds of one of these teams stealing a bid would be even bigger.

UCF (21-9, 10-6, #64)

With an opening round by, the Knights would face the winner of UAB or Tulane in round two. UCF is a close loss or two away from being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. With the exception of one bad showing at Memphis, UCF has been competitive in every CUSA game.

Marshall (18-12, 9-7, #66)

Like UCF, Marshall is a dangerous squad that could be looking at the NCAA's with a little more luck. As it is, they have a very favorable spot in the bracket, opening against SMU and then potentially facing Tulsa in the quarterfinals.

Tulsa (17-13, 10-6, #112)

Most wouldn't have guessed that Tulsa would earn the #3 seed in the CUSA Tournament.

UTEP (14-16, 7-9, #158)

A real darkhorse as a #8 seed, UTEP has beaten Memphis and Southern Miss this year, so you never what could happen if they got hot.

MWC
The MWC is a small league, so you only have to win 3 games to earn the title.

Wyoming (20-10, 6-8, #80)

The Cowboys face UNLV in the opening round, and have already beaten the Rebels. While they've struggled away from home, they can't be written off.

TCU (17-13, 7-7, #101)

TCU can ruin Colorado St's bubble hopes in the opening round. The two split their season series, and the game should be close.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a complete mess. Cal and Washington can't be considered locks and a ton of teams could potentially win the league title.

Arizona (21-10, 12-6, #77)

Arizona awaits the winner of UCLA/USC after getting a first round bye.

Colorado (19-11, 11-7, #83)

The #6 seed opens with lowly Utah. The Buffs aren't that much worse than anyone else in the league.

Stanford (20-10, 10-8, #97)

The only team in the league to beat a Top 50 opponent in non-conference play, Stanford has been playing better after slumping a few weeks back.

UCLA (18-13, 11-7, #118)

With the tournament in Los Angeles, and a favorable bracket, you certainly can't write off the Bruins.

SEC

Outside of Kentucky, the SEC is much more even than you might think. Teams like Florida and Vanderbilt are overrated, and 2nd seed Tennessee is not that great away from home. Kentucky might lose focus, and then the league is up for grabs.

Arkansas (18-13, 6-10, #100)

If the Hogs can get by LSU, they'd face Kentucky in the quarterfinals. If they could somehow beat UK..

LSU (17-13, 7-9, #89)

The same exact situation as Arkansas.

**I'll define the bubble as including the following teams:

BYU

California

Colorado St

Drexel

Miami

NC State

Northwestern

Ole Miss

Oregon

Saint Joseph's

Seton Hall

South Florida

Tennessee

Texas

UCONN

Washington

Xavier

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Iona, Middle Tennessee Now Play the Waiting Game: Sunday's Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 08:09:32 -0800

One of the dangers of conference tournaments at the mid-major level is that the top seed, regardless of the margin by which they won the regular season title, are just 40 minutes away from seeing their dream of going to the NCAA tournament vanish. While there's still a chance as the Field of 68 won't be announced for another six days Iona and Middle Tennessee no longer have control of their own fate, and that has to be a concern for both fan bases along with the players and coaches. Both teams fell in conference tournament action on Sunday, and with so much to be decided in regards to other teams on the bubble it's likely a long shot that one (or both) of these teams hears their name called on Selection Sunday.

The Blue Raiders can look no further than the foul line as the place to blame in their 64-61 loss to nine-seed Arkansas State in a Sun Belt quarterfinal in Hot Springs. Middle Tennessee shot just 11-for-22 from the charity stripe, and while poor shooting from the free throw line has been an issue all season long for Kermit Davis Jr's team (last in the Sun Belt in all games at 63%, 10th in conference games) they still shot 13 percentage points lower than their season average. If the Blue Raiders make three more free throws, not only do they match their season average but they likely push the game into overtime.

"For the first time all year I had to urge guys to practice at a higher level," said Davis after the game. "We got beat on some 50/50 balls, got out-rebounded, and the bottom line we weren't tough enough to step up and make free throws. [Arkansas State] did and that was the game."

Middle Tennessee, who won the Sun Belt by two games and led the conference in both scoring and points allowed per game, fell because of the "little things" that many tend to take for granted. Free throw shooting and rebounding (39-28 ASU) can come back to haunt a team if they aren't taken care of, regardless of skill level.

As for Iona, the level of play on the defensive end that's been a problem all season long reared its ugly head in their MAAC semifinal against Fairfield. The difference on Sunday compared to many other days for the Gaels: they weren't able to do enough offensively to make up for it.

Fairfield outscored Iona 45-33 in the second half of their 85-75 win, setting up a title game with two-seed Loyola (MD) on Monday night. Rakim Sanders scored 26 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead the way for Sydney Johnson's Stags, who shot 59.6% for the game and their level of defense in the second half (Iona shot 40.9% compared to 58.6% in the first half) proved to be the difference.

Scott Machado led Iona with 24 points and seven assists, but 16 of the points and five of the assists came in the first half, and the Gaels would lead by just two at the break (42-40). In addition to three starters reaching double figures for the Stags, reserve forward Keith Matthews scored 14 points off the bench.

The question now for the Blue Raiders and Stags is whether or not they have enough on their respective resumes to warrant an at-large bid. According to cbssports.com, Middle Tennessee has an RPI of 59 and an SOS of 184, with both numbers dropping due to their loss to Arkansas State. The Blue Raiders' "best" wins: Belmont and Ole Miss, and that regular season finale loss to Western Kentucky didn't help matters either.

Iona has an RPI of 34 and an SOS of 144, and while those numbers are better than Middle Tennessee's the Gaels are fighting an uphill battle as well. Tim Cluess' team does have wins over Saint Joseph's and Nevada to their credit, but they also have two losses in games they led by 18 points (Manhattan and Siena). The door to the NCAA tournament may remain open for both Middle Tennessee and Iona at this point in time, but as the Power 6 leagues begin their tournaments both could end up in trouble.

Other Notable Happenings

1. #24 Creighton wins an overtime thriller to grab the Valley's automatic bid.
Many bubble teams throughout the country were rooting hard for the Creighton Bluejays, whose trip to the NCAA tournament was essentially guaranteed going into Sunday's MVC tournament final. The same couldn't be said for Illinois State, who was looking to grab their first NCAA berth since 1998 and that would have made the Valley a three-bid league. Despite 20 points and five assists from Nic Moore the Redbirds fell short, dropping an 83-79 overtime thriller as the Bluejays grabbed the automatic bid. Doug McDemott was unstoppable for Creighton, scoring 33 points in a variety of ways, and Grant Gibbs made winning play after winning play to score 20, grab seven boards and dish out five assists.

The question for Creighton is what the title does for them seeding-wise. Clearly they can't play in Omaha since those games are on their home floor, but maybe Greg McDermott's team can fight their way into a "protected" seed, thus limiting the distance they and their fans have to travel. Wichita State won the regular season crown but it was Creighton who ends up with the tournament title, and there won't be a long line of teams waiting to play either team in the Big Dance.

2. William Buford's shot gives Ohio State (and Michigan) a share of the Big Ten title.
A Brandon Wood three with 12:03 remaining in the first half gave Michigan State a 22-9 lead, and frankly there weren't too many people who didn't think that Ohio State was in trouble at that point. But the Buckeyes were able to stop the bleeding, eventually pulling to within nine (38-29) at the half. The Buckeyes limited Michigan State, who also lost wing Branden Dawson for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee, to 38.5% shooting in the second half and William Buford completed the comeback with a tough, contested jumper with a second remaining to give the Buckeyes the 72-70 win.

Buford finished with 25 points and Jared Sullinger added 14 and ten boards, but there was an unsung hero as well. Evan Ravenel came off the bench to give Thad Matta seven points in eight minutes of action, and while he didn't play much the Boston College transfer did play an important role in the comeback with Sullinger on the bench. The win also gave Michigan a share of the Big Ten crown, something that hasn't happened in Ann Arbor since 1986. The Spartans remain the top seed in the Big Ten tournament due to tiebreakers, but it will be interesting to see how Draymond Green and company account for the loss of Dawson.

3. VCU jumps George Mason early, holding on to advance to the CAA title game.
By the time Jonathan Arledge scored George Mason's first field goal of the game at the 11:48 mark, the Patriots trailed rival VCU 27-4. it was that kind of start for Paul Hewitt's team, which could not overcome VCU's 22-0 run to start the game, falling 74-64 in the second CAA semifinal of the day. Bradford Burgess led the Rams with 20 points and Troy Daniels added 17 and six rebounds, and VCU's defense combined with foul trouble limited CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson to six points and five rebounds in 23 minutes of action.

Pearson wouldn't be the only George Mason player to struggle however, as guards Bryon Allen and Vertail Vaughns combined to shoot just 2-for-13 from the field. VCU also knocked down 11 of 25 shots from beyond the arc, making seven of them before the game hit the under-8 media timeout. The game was also critical in regards to possible at-large hopes should neither win the CAA's automatic bid, and to fall in this fashion doesn't bode well for George Mason. VCU at the very least picked up their 27th win and lives to fight another day, and that's the least a team can ask for in March.

Quick Hitters

1. The top two teams will meet in the America East title game as well, as a Dallis Joyner tip-in as time expired pushed Stony Brook past Albany 57-55. The Seawolves will host two-seed Vermont on Saturday morning, as the Catamounts beat host Hartford 77-73 in double overtime.

2. Monday's SoCon final will match the league's best team with its hottest team, as top-seed (South) Davidson and three seed (North) Western Carolina will meet in Asheville. The Catamounts won their seventh straight game on Sunday night as they beat North Division champ UNCG 82-77. Forwards Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks combined for 44 points and 11 rebounds to lead Davidson to an 83-67 win over Elon in the nightcap.

3. The NEC title game will be a rematch of last year's final (and in the same gym as well) as three-seed Robert Morris won 71-64 at two-seed Wagner. Velton Jones led all scorers with 25 points and the Colonials went 30-for-40 from the foul line to make up for their 32.1% shooting from the field. Top-seed LIU Brooklyn advanced with a tough 78-75 win over Quinnipiac as Julian Boyd scored 21 points and grabbed nine rebounds, and point guard Jason Brickman added 18 points and five assists.

4. Apparently Sunday was "Damaging Loss Day" in the Pac-12 as both Arizona and California dropped their regular season finales. The Golden Bears, who resume-wise are in better shape at this point, dropped a 75-70 decision at Stanford and that gives Washington the outright regular season crown. Arizona fell 87-80 at Arizona State, and that loss could mean that Sean Miller's team needs at least two wins in L.A. to merit an at-large bid. The good news for both is that the automatic bid is still on the table, and it would be in their best interest to leave no doubt and win that.

5. Middle Tennessee wasn't the only upset victim in Hot Springs as two-seed UALR fell to seven-seed Western Kentucky 68-63. Ray Harper's young Hilltoppers have played some solid basketball since his interim tag was removed, winning four straight and five of their last six going into Monday's semifinal against Denver. Freshman guard Derrick Gordon was outstanding for WKU, finishing with 25 points and 15 rebounds.

6. #1 Kentucky capped an undefeated run through the SEC with a 74-59 win at #13 Florida, dropping the Gators all the way down to the four-seed in this week's SEC tournament. Simply put John Calipari's got the best team in the country, and while it looks effortless there haven't been moments when the young Wildcats have decided to mail it in effort-wise. Good luck trying to beat them.

7. One would think that the victor would receive the spoils in the form of a conference player of the year award and while most likely that would be North Carolina's Tyler Zeller, Virginia's Mike Scott has a very good case. Scott scored a career-high 35 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to push Virginia past Maryland 75-72 to lock up a first-round bye in next week's ACC tournament.

8. A senior class that was a part of a 25-loss season as freshmen experienced their 24th win of the season as #20 Indiana beat rival Purdue 85-74 in Bloomington. Christian Watford led four Hoosiers in double figures with 19 points, clinching the five-seed in this week's Big Ten tournament. Robbie Hummel led the Boilermakers with 16 and eight rebounds, and Purdue will be the six-seed.

Three Notable Performances

1. F Mike Scott (Virginia)
35 points and 11 rebounds in the Cavaliers' 75-72 overtime win at Maryland.

2. G Grant Gibbs and F Doug McDermott (Creighton)
McDermott scored 33 points and grabbed six boards while Gibbs added 20, seven and five assists in the Bluejays' 83-79 overtime win over Illinois State.

3. G Derrick Gordon (Western Kentucky)
25 points and 15 rebounds in the Hilltoppers' 68-63 win over UALR.

Bracketology: Saturday Afternoon Bubble Update

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 13:51:35 -0800

At this point in the season, a few hours can make or destroy a team's season. Besides conference titles on the line, at-large bids, NIT invites, and seeding remain up in the air. Since yesterday's Bracketology projection, here are the results that matter and how the impact postseason hopes:

Saturday Afternoon

Cincinnati 72 - Villanova 68
Having beaten Marquette last time out, Cincinnati seemed safely in the tournament for the first time in weeks. However, a loss to Villanova followed by a loss in the Big East Tournament could have pushed them right back to the edge. Instead, Cincy picked up a road win and a probable NCAA bid.

Cincinnati's projected seed: 10-11

Marquette 83 - Georgetown 69
Both of these teams were 3 seeds in my latest projection. Georgetown could certainly drop into the 4 seed range depending on how the likes of Wisconsin and Indiana fare over the weekend.

Marquette's projected seed: 2-3
Georgetown's projected seed: 3-4

Memphis 78 - Tulsa 66
With a win, the Tigers locked up the CUSA regular season title. With the tournament being held in Memphis, they have a great shot to win the postseason tournament as well. With a Top 25 RPI and a string of wins, Memphis is approaching a 6 seed.

Memphis' projected seed: 6-7

Murray St 54 - Tennessee St
It wasn't easy, but Murray St escaped with a 2-point win in the OVC Finals to lock up a bid. As a neutral bracketologist, a win by Tennessee St would have been much more interesting. Murray has a wider range of seeds compared to most teams considering their unique situation.

Murray St's projected seed: 4-6

Northwestern 70 - Iowa 66

Nothing comes easy for Northwestern. Wildcats trailed by a bunch, then led by a bunch, then escaped with a nail-biting win. As it is, Northwestern is still in the field, but a lot can change over the next week. A first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament could be enough to knock them right back out. (Iowa could have finished an impressive 9-9 with a win, but their best case postseason scenario is hosting an NIT first round game.)

Northwestern's projected seed: 11-13

Marshall 79 - Southern Miss 75
Southern Miss showed a lot of toughness fighting back from multiple deficits, but the Eagles could never pull away. A win would have no doubt locked up a bid for Southern Miss, but instead they drop closer to the bubble. I think they're still in, but there are a lot of analysts who question how good this team really is. (Marshall is fighting for an NIT bid, and this win certainly helped.)

Southern Miss projected seed: 11-12

UCONN 74 - Pittsburgh 65
The Huskies looked dominant in the first half, almost blew the lead, and then ended up pulling out a 9 point win. A loss would have 100% eliminated UCONN from NCAA Tournament contention. As it is, they exemplify what it means to be a bubble team. South Florida's loss to West Virginia definitely helped UCONN's cause.

UCONN's projected seed: 13 or NIT.

UNC-Asheville 80 - VMI 64
After a tight first half, VMI ran out of gas and UNC-Asheville cruised to the Big South title. Despite a solid 24-9 season and dominant Big South record, UNCA will most likely be looking at a 16 seed.

UNCA's projected seed: 16 (potentially in First Four game.)

UCLA 75 - Washington 69
While I question why the Pac-12 deserves more than one bid, you can rest assured the league will at least get 2 bids. This loss not only prevented the Huskies from locking up the regular season title, it also pushes them down out of a single-digit seed.

Washington's projected seed: 10-11

West Virginia 50 - South Florida 44
In an offensively inept game between bubble squads, West Virginia pulled out a huge road win. The Mountaineers once looked like a tourney lock, but needed two wins to close the season to remain in the field. As it is, they're in for now but can't be considered a 100% lock. After South Florida finally worked their way into my projected field of 68, they're back on the outside now. They certainly still have a chance to work their way back in, but if USF loses their first game at the Big East Tournament, they'd officially be toast.

West Virginia's projected seed: 11-12
South Florida's projected seed: NIT

Illinois St 65 - Wichita St 64

The Shockers have certainly locked up a bid, but this loss may have knocked them back from the lofty 4 seed I had them pegged at. More importantly, it opens the possibility that Illinois St could win the MVC title tomorrow over Creighton/Evansville and steal a bubble bid. Should be fun to watch tomorrow.

Wichita St's projected seed: 4-5

Xavier 72 - Charlotte 63
With 8 minutes to go, Charlotte led by 4 and Xavier's NCAA hopes were on the verge of collapsing. Tu Holloway scored 10 points in the final 8 minutes to spearhead a Xavier run that might have saved their season.

Xavier's projected seed: 12-13

Friday Night

BYU 73 - San Diego 68
The Cougars were pushed from the opening tip by San Diego, but escaped with a much-needed win. BYU's spot in the tournament is far from certain. Only if they go on to beat Gonzaga tonight would I say they're safe.

BYU's projected seed: 10-11

Creighton 68 - Drake 61
Doug McDermott's 26 points helped Creighton escape with a win over a pesky Drake squad. While Creighton is a tourney lock, a loss last night could have potentially dropped them as far as an 8 or 9 seed.

Creighton's projected seed: 6-7

Harvard 77 - Columbia 70 (OT)
While most have assumed for months that Harvard would win the Ivy League, they're only a half-game up on Penn. Not only would a lost last night have put Harvard's Ivy hopes in danger, it would have been crippling for their at-large hopes as well. There's no way the committee puts a 3-loss Ivy team into the tournament.

Harvard's projected seed: 11

Poll: Should UCONN Make the NCAA Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 09:24:11 -0800

Bracketology: Bubble Update (UCONN Last In)

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:35:25 -0800

Instead of the Bubble shrinking over the last couple of weeks, it has actually grown. Former locks like West Virginia, UCONN, and Mississippi St have struggled, while hot teams like Drexel and VCU have joined the fray. Thus, despite being less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday, the NCAA Tournament Bubble is as uncertain as ever.

Tuesday night, there were a couple of important bubble results: UCONN lost to Providence and Xavier fell at Saint Louis. (UCF also got crushed by Memphis, but I didn't have the Knights within ten spots of a bid coming into the night, although others did.) The Xavier loss is not crushing. Teams rarely win road games against Top 50 opponents, so the committee can't hold it against them. However, they did get knocked down to a 12 seed and in a First Four game. (Note that other Bracketologists such as Joe Lunardi had Xavier as a 12 seed coming into the night, so they'd presumably be out in those projections.)

The UCONN loss is more damaging. There's really no excuse losing to a 4-13 Big East team when they're playing for nothing but pride. UCONN is now the last team in the field, whereas coming into the today, they were somewhat sturdy 11 seed. A win by UCONN over Pitt to close the regular season doesn't really change their fate much. They need a good showing in NYC and other teams to falter.

Since the last Bubble Watch update, Arizona moved into the field, replacing NC state. NC State has been replace by Miami as the ACC's fifth and likely final bid. While the RPI is not in love with Arizona, other computer rankings don't love the alternatives like Dayton or St. Joseph's.

Long Beach St moved into a 12 seed, the highest they've been seeded in a couple of months. This means that they can still get a potential at-large bid even if losing in the Big West tournament. On the flip-side, Middle Tennessee has been taken out of at-large contention due to another loss.

Illinois is not completely dead yet. The Illini can make up a lot of ground in their final regular season games, not to mention the Big Ten tournament. Also in the Big Ten, Northwestern faces the reverse scenario.. they're in for now but have many chances to play their way out of the Dance. They host Ohio St tomorrow in a game that could end their lengthy Tournament drought.

The Bubble:

Seeds take into account my latest Bracketology Projection, as well as Tuesday night's action. **=Potential Conference Champions. Teams below the cut line would not make the field as an at-large team.

10 Seeds
Southern Miss

------- Above is Safe -------

BYU
Miami
**Washington

11 Seeds
Northwestern

Seton Hall

Cincinnati

**Harvard

12 Seeds

Mississippi St

**Long Beach St

West Virginia
Texas / Xavier

13 Seeds
Arizona/ UCONN
------- Cut Line -------

**Drexel

**Iona

**Oral Roberts

Just Out (in order of likelihood)

South Florida

St. Joseph's

Drexel

VCU

Dayton

Tennessee

Iona

Oregon

Colorado St

NC State

Illinois

Oral Roberts

Other teams with a chance of playing their way into the tournament with a strong finish, in no particular order: Ole Miss, Colorado, LSU, Stanford

Check out NITology for the other teams bringing up the rear. For questions, post a comment below or join the discussion @collegehoopsnet.

Bracketology: Arizona In, Texas on Edge, St. Joseph's Close

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 22:50:51 -0800

In this week's Bracketology projection: Arizona replaces NC State as the last team in the field, Kansas takes a #1 seed, Southern Miss drops two slots, and St. Joseph's moves strongly into the picture.

Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for rankings and standings of teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs

ONE

Kentucky**

Syracuse**

Duke**

Kansas**

TWO

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

UNLV**

SIX

Temple**

SEVEN

San Diego St

EIGHT

Memphis**

NINE

TEN

ELEVEN

Harvard**

TWELVE + 1

Mississippi St / Cincinnati

THIRTEEN + 1

Arizona / Texas

Iona**

Drexel**

Oral Roberts**

FOURTEEN

Middle Tennessee**

Belmont**

Nevada**

Davidson**

FIFTEEN

Akron**

Weber St**

Valparaiso**

Bucknell**

SIXTEEN + 2

Long Island**

Texas-Arlington**

UNC-Asheville** / Mississippi Valley St**

Stony Brook** / Savannah St**

Last In: Arizona, Texas, Mississippi St, Cincinnati

First Out: South Florida, St. Joseph's, VCU, Dayton

Further Four: Tennessee, Oregon, Colorado St, NC State

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): NC State

New (at-large): Arizona

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

ACC - 5

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 5

A-10 - 3

MWC - 3

Pac-12 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

America East - Stony Brook
A-10 - Temple
ACC - Duke
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Kansas
Big East - Syracuse
Big Sky - Weber St
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - Drexel
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Valparaiso
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Iona
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Savannah St
MVC - Wichita St
MWC - UNLV
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Washington
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas-Arlington
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee
WAC - Nevada
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out the companion Bubble Watch for a more in-depth look at teams on the NCAA Bubble.

Consensus Ranking: Alabama, Memphis Underrated

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 16:04:00 -0800

Despite falling to 10th in the AP poll, Ohio St remains strong in the Consensus Ranking (CR). The computers were nonplussed by the Buckeyes loss to Wisconsin. Similarly, Missouri only fell two spots despite a pair of losses. The biggest losers this week were actually La Salle, West Virginia, and Marshall.

On the positive side, Dayton, Memphis, and Purdue made the strongest moves. Interesting that although the computers respected those teams, it was the likes of Iowa St, Drexel, and VCU that the AP voters hyped up.

Making their debut in the CR is South Dakota St and Tennessee. South Dakota St moved into the RPI top 60 and comes in at a very respectable 57th, ahead of many teams getting bubble love. SD St is also 9 spots ahead of Oral Roberts, despite trailing in the Summit standings. Tennessee comes in at a less respectable 75th, the lowest rank of any team getting bubble love.

Also of note, Wichita St moves into the top 10 for the first time. The Shockers are consistently respected across the board, though the AP voters have been slower to jump on the bandwagon. Lastly, Saint Louis is the highest CR team without a single AP vote. The Billikens lost at Rhode Island, which the computers were not as concerned about.

What Is It?

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

82 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

Rank	Team	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Avg	Last	2 Weeks	AP
1	Kentucky	3	1	1	1.7	1	2t	1
2	Michigan St	4	3	3	3.3	2t	4	5
3	Ohio St	7	2	2	3.7	4	1	10
4	Syracuse	1	6	5	4.0	2t	2t	2
5	Kansas	6	4	4	4.7	5	5	3
6	UNC	5	7	6	6.0	6	6t	6
7	Duke	2	10	9	7.0	8	9	4
8	Wichita St	10	8	10	9.3	14	18	15
9	Missouri	16	9	7	10.7	7	8	7
10	Marquette	8	16	13	12.3	11	15	8
11t	Georgetown	12	13	14	13.0	9t	11	11
11t	Baylor	9	18	12	13.0	12	6t	9
13t	Wisconsin	27	5	8	13.3	9t	13t	14
13t	Indiana	18	11	11	13.3	13	10	18
15	Florida	19	17	15	17.0	15	12	16
15t	Memphis	21	14	16	17.0	23	23	36
17	UNLV	11	30	20	20.3	19t	13t	17
18	Michigan	13	25	24	20.7	18	22	13
19	Saint Louis	34	12	18	21.3	16	19
20	New Mexico	33	15	17	21.7	17	21	29
21	Louisville	20	27	19	22.0	21	24	19
22t	Vanderbilt	22	20	26	22.7	24	31	31
22t	Alabama	24	21	23	22.7	29	26	40
24	Virginia	38	19	22	26.3	27	25	24
25	Gonzaga	17	33	31	27.0	26	27t	26
26	Florida St	25	29	28	27.3	19t	16	22
27	Temple	15	34	34	27.7	25	34	23
28	California	36	24	25	28.3	22	32t	37t
29	Kansas St	45	23	21	29.7	31t	32t	39t
30	Creighton	23	39	30	30.7	28	17	25
31	Iowa St	31	31	33	31.7	35t	35t	27
32	Purdue	40	28	29	32.3	40	44t	37t
33	UCONN	30	36	38	34.7	33	29
34	Texas	55	26	27	36.0	31t	37t
35	St. Mary's	32	41	36	36.3	39	20	28
36	Notre Dame	42	32	37	37.0	38	50	20
37	Harvard	37	35	40	37.3	30	37t	35
38	Belmont	59	22	32	37.7	44	x
39	Long Beach St	35	42	41	39.3	41	39	33
40	Murray St	29	48	43	40.0	46	47	12
41	BYU	49	38	35	40.7	35t	35t	34
42t	Seton Hall	44	43	44	43.7	42	49
42t	Southern Miss	14	66	51	43.7	37	30	39t
44	Miami	48	40	45	44.3	45	46
45	West Virginia	50	45	39	44.7	34	27t
46	San Diego St	28	60	49	45.7	48	41	21
47	Iona	41	49	48	46.0	49	51
48	MTSU	47	50	47	48.0	43	40
49	Northwestern	43	56	53	50.7	47	54
50	Cincinnati	77	37	42	52.0	52	59
51t	Arizona	67	44	46	52.3	50	44t
51t	VCU	60	47	50	52.3	57	x	32
53	Xavier	54	53	56	54.3	53t	53
54	St. Joseph's	51	64	58	57.7	51	55
55	South Dakota St	56	57	62	58.3	x	x
56	Washington	52	68	59	59.7	58	60
57	Dayton	61	59	60	60.0	75	69
58	Drexel	74	46	61	60.3	64	x	30
59	NC State	71	58	54	61.0	53t	x
60	Illinois	72	63	52	62.3	59	42
61	Davidson	65	62	64	63.7	68	62t
62	South Florida	46	69	77	64.0	62	x
63	Oregon	53	72	68	64.3	61	x
64t	Minnesota	82	61	55	66.0	55	43
64t	Oral Roberts	39	89	70	66.0	65	57
66	Colorado St	26	88	91	68.3	69	65
67t	Akron	58	78	72	69.3	60	56
67t	Mississippi St	64	81	63	69.3	66	48
69	La Salle	89	55	65	69.7	56	x
70	Stanford	106	54	57	72.3	71	62t
71	Northern Iowa	63	82	75	73.3	67	58
72	Ohio	78	74	73	75.0	78	68
73	Marshall	62	84	81	75.7	63	64
74	Cleveland St	75	76	78	76.3	73	52
75	Tennessee	92	65	76	77.7	x	x
76	UCF	66	80	89	78.3	70	71
77	Denver	91	73	80	81.3	74	72
78	Virginia Tech	104	77	66	82.3	77	66
79	Nevada	57	105	101	87.7	76	x
80	Ole Miss	69	103	98	90.0	79	70
81	Wagner	80	104	93	92.3	72	67
82	Arkansas	84	111	97	97.3	80	61

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +28

Murray St +28

San Diego St +25

VCU +19

Notre Dame +16

BYU +7

Saint Mary's +7

LBSU +6

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Memphis -21

Alabama -18

Kansas St -10

California -9

New Mexico -9
Vanderbilt -9

Teams w/ no votes

Saint Louis

UCONN

Texas

Belmont

Seton Hall

Biggest Changes In Last Week:

Rising

Dayton +18

Memphis +8

Purdue +8

Alabama +7

Davidson +7

Falling

La Salle -13

West Virginia -11

Marshall -10

Minnesota -9

Akron/Harvard -7

Biggest Changes In Last Two Weeks:

Rising

Notre Dame +14

Purdue +12

Dayton +12

Vanderbilt +9

Wichita St +9

Falling

Arkansas -21

Minnesota -21

Mississippi St -19

Illinois -18

West Virginia -18

What do you think? Post comments below, send a tweet to @collegehoopsnet, or follow facebook.com/collegehoopsnet.

Bracketology: Top 10 Games to Watch This Week

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 11:23:32 -0800

We're getting down to the nitty gritty. Some leagues have already wrapped up their schedules, while others have a couple of games left. Here's a breakdown of this week's Top 10 games as it relates to NCAA Tournament Bracketology and the Bubble:

1) Wednesday: Northwestern (17-11, 7-9) vs Ohio St (23-5, 11-4)

Even average sports fans know that Northwestern has never made the NCAA Tournament. If the Wildcats could somehow knock off the top 10 Buckeyes, their tourney dreams could finally come true. But that's a big if. When Northwestern went to Columbus back in December, the Buckeyes won by 33 points. But Northwestern has been solid at home, and its fun to keep dreams alive.

2) Wednesday: NC State (18-11, 7-7) vs Miami (16-10, 7-6)

NC state has lost 4 straight at the worst possible time. But if they were to beat Miami and then finish 9-7 in the ACC, they'd certainly have a shot at the bubble. Miami is in a very similar situation, stringing along near .500 in conference, trying to take advantage of the ACC's weakness. Miami has the better RPI and the better marquee win (at Duke), but no non-conference wins of note. The loser should be relegated to the NIT.

3) Tuesday: UCONN (17-11, 7-9) at Providence (14-15, 3-13)

UCONN came oh so close to topping Syracuse on Saturday, and perhaps booking their ticket to the Dance. Instead, they have a road game at Providence and a home tilt with Pittsburgh to prove they deserve a bid. Despite PC's weak overall record, they've been competitive at home and should give UCONN a stiff test. If UCONN can't win this game they don't deserve to go anywhere near the NCAA Tournament.

4) Saturday: South Florida (17-11, 10-5) vs West Virginia (17-12, 7-9)

A month ago, West Virginia seemed like a tourney lock, and South Florida didn't even seem like an NIT team. But in college basketball, a few weeks can change everything. WVU has lost 7 of 9 games, including 4 in a row at home. After hosting DePaul on Tuesday (they can't conceivably lose that game, can they?), West Virginia heads to Tampa to face a Bulls team with an outside shot at a bid as well. This could very well be an elimination game, the loser's dreams busted.

5) Tuesday: Saint Louis (22-6, 10-4) vs Xavier (18-10, 9-5)

Xavier is a perfect example of a bubble team. A team that top teams would be afraid to face, yet a team that can't seem to put it all together. They've been playing .500 ball for a month, and haven't beaten a top 100 team on the road since late November (Vanderbilt.) SLU blew a golden chance to lock up a tourney bid by losing to URI on Saturday. It was their first bad loss of the season, and came at the worst possible time. If they were to bounce back and beat Xavier, they'd 100% be assured of a spot in the field of 68. If SLU were to lose.. well, Bills fans don't want to even consider that possibility.

6) Wednesday: Tennessee (16-13, 8-6) at LSU (17-11, 7-7)

LSU simply didn't show up at Ole Miss on Saturday, losing by 24. That game probably ruined their at-large hopes, but they can still play spoiler against a Tennessee team riding the bubble. Tennessee has two wins over Florida and a win over UCONN, not to mention an over .500 SEC record. Their biggest problem has been winning on the road. If they were to top LSU, adding both a road win and another Top 100 RPI win to their resume, the Vols might be Dancing. Who would have guessed that after a 2-6 start?

7) Tuesday: UCF (20-8, 9-5) at Memphis (21-8, 11-3)

After a shock loss to UTEP last week, Memphis bounced back with 2 straight wins, including a 20 point blowout over Marshall. This probably assures them of a tourney bid. UCF still has slim bubble chances, but a win over Memphis is a must. The Knights already topped Memphis at home, and also have a win against UCONN under their belt. A second win over Memphis and a strong 11-5 CUSA record would certainly look good to the committee. But their dreams are 100% dashed if they don't win.

8) Saturday: Southern Miss (23-16, 10-4) at Marshall (17-11, 8-6)

Despite a top 20 RPI, Southern Miss has not locked up a bid. Two straight road losses to Houston and UTEP last week came at the worst possible time. Marshall is a solid team, but their blowout loss to Memphis on Saturday shows how vulnerable they are. Southern Miss not only need a win, but they need an equally emphatic win to show they're for real. If Southern Miss beats SMU on Wednesday and then rolls against Marshall, I don't see how the committee couldn't give them a bid.

9) Wednesday: Saint Joseph's (19-11, 9-6) vs Saint Bonaventure (16-10, 9-5)

The Hawks don't get much attention nationally, but I think they have the committee's attention. After all, they're ranked 51st in the RPI, and hold wins over Creighton and Temple, not to mention 6 other top 100 w's. If not for a 3-point hiccup loss to Richmond last week, they might very well be featured in every Bracketology projection. As it is, they're on the outside looking in, needing a strong finish to their season. This is by no means an easy game, but the Hawks can't afford to lose.

10) Saturday: Washington (20-8, 13-3) at UCLA (16-13, 9-7)

The way things have played out, it does look like the Pac-12 will get a 2nd bid. Whether the league actually deserves a 2nd bid is an open question. Washington finishes their schedule with road games in Los Angeles, at USC and then at UCLA. Assuming they beat lowly USC, this sets up an intriguing nationally televised CBS game in which UCLA can play the roll of spoiler. I wouldn't say UW 100% needs this win, but a loss would not help the cause..