Louisville

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 23:07:58 -0400

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

2012-13 Top 50 Ranking: November 19

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 00:09:05 -0500

Collegehoops.net's Top 50 Power Ranking is your weekly dive into the national college basketball scene. The CHN Top 50 is brought to you before all the other polls late Sunday night. Arrows represent notable moves. (Also: Check out the weekly Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking.)

Top 50 Ranking: November 19th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Indiana	3-0	x
2	Michigan	3-0	x
3	Louisville	3-0	x
4	Duke	3-0	x
5	Syracuse	2-0	x
6	Ohio State	3-0	x
7	Florida	3-0	x
8	Kentucky	2-1*	x
9	North Carolina	3-0	x
10	UCLA	3-0	x
11	Creighton	3-0	x
12	Gonzaga	3-0	x
13	Arizona	2-0	x
14	Memphis	2-0	x
15	UNLV	2-0	x
16	Missouri	3-0	x
17	Michigan State	2-1	x
18	Kansas	2-1*	x
19	Colorado	4-0	x
20	Oklahoma St	4-0	x
21	UCONN	3-0	x
22	Cincinnati	3-0	x
23	Baylor	4-1*	x
24	San Diego St	2-1	x
25	NC State	3-1*	x
26	Wisconsin	2-1*	x
27	Minnesota	4-0	x
28	Notre Dame	3-1*	x
29	Kansas St	4-0	x
30	St. Mary's	3-0	x
31	Pittsburgh	4-0	x
32	Texas	2-0	x
33	New Mexico	3-0	x
34	Ohio	3-0	x
35	Alabama	4-0	x
36	Murray St	3-1*	x
37	Marquette	2-0	x
38	St. Joseph's	2-1*	x
39	Florida State	3-1	x
40	Northern Iowa	3-0	x
41	South Alabama	2-0	x
42	Tennessee	3-1*	x
43	Colorado St	2-0	x
44	Wichita St	4-0	x
45	Santa Clara	2-0	x
46	Saint Louis	1-1*	x
47	Iowa St	3-0	x
48	Temple	2-0	x
49	Belmont	3-0	x
50	VCU	2-1*	x

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Bucknell (5-0), Butler (1-1*), Oregon (3-0), Xavier (3-0), Illinois (3-0)

Top 50 Drop Outs

			Week
	Week One!

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

Kentucky vs Louisville: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:47:34 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

Records

Kentucky 36-2, 16-0 SEC

Louisville 30-9, 10-8 Big East

Time: 6:09 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (2) Kansas, Monday in National Championship

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico 59-56; def. Michigan State, 57-44; def. Florida, 72-68

Regular-season Meeting

Dec. 31 – At Kentucky 69, Louisville 62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Louisville 9

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 137)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg). Kidd-Gilchrist saved his best for the most important time of the year. In two regional games in Atlanta, MKG had 43 points and 15 rebounds in a pair of wins over Indiana and Baylor.

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.7 apg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 51.3% FG). Behanan has been a beast on the boards in the tournament. In four games, he has 31 rebounds to go along with 56 points, four steals, three assists and three blocks.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: In their regular-season win over Louisville, the Wildcats out-rebounded the Cardinals 49-28, including 14 offensive rebounds. Kentucky will have a significant advantage inside with Davis, Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist, who had 24 points and 19 rebounds last time out against the Cardinals. For the season, UK out-rebounds opponents by 7.1 per game. The Cats also lead the country with 8.6 blocks per game. Few teams – if any – are as good in transition and Kentucky’s half-court offense has improved as the season has progressed. Defensively, UK allows opponents to shoot just 37.5 percent from the floor and 31.5 percent from the 3-point line.

Louisville: The Cardinals win with defense. Opponents have shot just 80-of-214 (37.4 percent) overall and 22-of-83 (26.5 percent) from behind the 3-point arc against Louisville in the tournament and it has forced 52 turnovers, including 21 steals. The Cards held Kentucky to 17-of-57 the first time around and forced 20 turnovers and got 12 steals. U of L’s offense is balanced with six players averaging at least 9.1 points. It shot 45 percent from the floor and 37.5 percent from 3 in Saturday’s win over Florida.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: In the win over Louisville, the Cats shot just 29.8 percent from the floor and made just 3-of-16 3s. They’ll have to be better than that this time. Kentucky got to the foul line 43 times in that game. However, opponents shot more free throws than the Wildcats did this season. At times, Kentucky has been prone to turnovers and Louisville forces a ton. Depth could be an issue, particularly if they get into foul trouble.

Louisville: The Cardinals sometimes struggle to score. Even in tournament wins over New Mexico and Michigan State, Louisville managed just 116 combined points and shot 43-of-103 combined. The Cardinals are just plus-1.6 in the rebounding category for the season. That could be deadly against Kentucky. Louisville also turns the ball over 14.1 times per game.

The Bottom Line: Pitino has seen Kentucky once and he has had a week to prepare for the Wildcats. He’ll find a way to slow them down. Enough for his Cardinals to pull off the upset? Probably not. But his gameplan should be enough to keep them close.

The Pick: Kentucky 73, Louisville 66

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 207-161-6

Louisville vs Florida: Elite Eight

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:09:21 -0400

(4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida: West Region

Records

Louisville 29-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

Florida 26-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Time: 4:30 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky, (3) Baylor, (4) Indiana or (10) Xavier, March 31 in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico, 59-56; def. Michigan State 57-44

Florida def. Virginia, 71-45; def. Norfolk State, 84-50; def. Marquette 68-58

Rankings

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Louisville 9

Florida 15

Line: Florida -1½ (O/U 131)

Players to Watch

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 50.6% FG). Like Siva, Dieng is effective even when he’s not scoring. Despite just five points, the sophomore had a huge impact on Thursday’s win over top-seeded Michigan State with nine boards, seven blocks and three steals.

Florida: G Bradley Beal, 6-3 Fr. (14.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 spg); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16 ppg, 2.6 apg, 41.1% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 61.6% FG). Beal has played his best basketball in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and almost two steals in the Gators’ three games.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Louisville: The Cardinals’ defense has been unmatched in the tournament. Teams are scoring just 54 points per game, and are shooting just 34.7 percent from the floor and are 14-of-52 from the 3-point line (26.9 percent) in three tournament games. Top-seed Michigan State managed to shoot 28.6 percent overall and 23.8 from deep. U of L’s defense also has 16 steals in the tourney. The Louisville offense is balanced with five different players averaging at least 9.1 points per game. Against the Spartans, seven players scored at least four points and the Cardinals’ bench outscored MSU’s 17-4. The Cards out-rebounded a very good rebounding Michigan State team 34-32.

Florida: The Gators have to be a confident bunch after out-scoring their three NCAA Tournament opponents 223-153. The first two games could be chalked up to good matchups, but the win 10-point win over 3-seed Marquette was impressive. The Gators won unconventionally. They hit just seven of their 27 3s, but they held the Eagles to 20-of-65 from the field and 6-of-21 from the 3-point line. They out-rebounded Marquette 39-34 and blocked nine shots. For the season, Florida is shooting 38 percent from deep, they’ve made more 3-pointers (349) than any team in the country and almost every Gator is capable of hitting shots from the outside. Their 1.35-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 11^th in the country and they have five regulars who shoot 76 percent or better from the charity stripe.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Louisville: While the Louisville defense has been great, its offense still struggles to put up points. It has managed to just better than 40.4 percent just once in the tournament and has been over 50 percent just once in the last 17 games. They made just 21-of-55 overall against Michigan State. Louisville turns the ball over 14.3 times per game and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. For the season, the Cardinals shoot just 42.4 percent from the field and 31.6 from behind the 3-point arc.

Florida: Despite Thursday’s effort, Florida is not a great defensive team. They are allowing 64.8 points per game, 42.3 percent shooting and 34.1 from the 3-point line. They have just a 2.8 rebounding margin for the season. Florida is a decent perimeter defensive team, but besides Young, has little paint presence. With the injury to Will Yeguete, the Gator bench is very thin, especially in the frontcourt.

The Bottom Line: Louisville’s perimeter defense will shut down the Gators and send the Cardinals to the Final 4.

The Pick: Louisville 63, Florida 56

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-168-6

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 13:25:02 -0400

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

Mchigan St vs Louisville: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:46:27 -0400

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville: West Region

Records

Michigan State 29-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular season and Conference Tournament Champions)

Louisville 28-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:47 p.m. Thursday

TV: TBS

Location: U.S. Airways Arena in Phoenix

Winner will face: (3) Marquette or (7) Florida, Sunday

Tournament Results

Michigan State def. Long Island, 89-67; def. Saint Louis, 65-61

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico, 59-56

Rankings

Michigan State No. 5 AP; No. 4 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Michigan State 2

Louisville 10

Line: Michigan State -5 (O/U 125)

Players to Watch

Michigan State: F Draymond Green, 6-7 Sr. (16.3 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.8 apg); C Derrick Nix, 6-9 Jr. (8.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 55.9% FG); G Keith Appling, 6-1 So. (11.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.2 spg). Green – the Big Ten Player of the Year – was at his best in the Spartans’ first two rounds of the tournament, including a triple-double in an 89-67 win over Long Island. He has 42 points, 25 rebounds, 16 assists, three steals and he has made 16 of his 28 field goal attempts and four of his eight 3s.

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.1 bpg); G Russ Smith, 6-0 So. (11.4 ppg, 2.3 spg, 1.9 apg). Smith can be spectacular and … let’s just say inconsistent. On Saturday he was definitely the former, scoring 17 points, hitting all three of his 3-point shots, getting three steals and playing great overall defense in the win over New Mexico.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Michigan State: Draymond Green. If they have nothing else, the Spartans have Green, one of the toughest, smartest and best leaders in college basketball. Having a star is always a key to winning a national championship, and Green seems to be on the level of Magic Johnson and Mateen Cleaves. Michigan State shoots 48.2 percent from the field, thanks to a bulky, savvy frontline. The Spartans are a very good rebounding team and out-rebound opponents by 8.3 points per game. They rarely allow an offensive rebound and they rebound 37 percent of their own misses.

Louisville: The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the country, holding opponents to 61.1 points, 37.9 percent from the floor and 30.2 from the 3-point line. They force 15.6 turnovers and get nine steals per game. During their 6-game winning streak, U of L has held five of the opponents to under 40 percent from the field, including a 23-for-58 outing for a hot New Mexico squad. Siva is an outstanding playmaker and floor leader and the Cardinals have very good depth.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Michigan State: Because of their style, pace and lack of perimeter offense, the Spartans have a hard time pulling away from anyone. That could put them in jeopardy late in the tournament. Against Saint Louis, MSU shot 54 percent and the Billikens managed just 35, yet because of the Spartans’ lack of explosiveness, the final margin was just four points. The Michigan State defense applies almost no perimeter pressure, forcing only 12.7 turnovers per game and they have a minus-0.2 turnover margin. Although the frontline is the Spartans’ strength, without injured Branden Dawson, they have almost no frontline depth, so foul trouble has the potential to be damaging.

Louisville: The Cardinals have really struggled to put the ball in the basket. They shoot just 42.5 percent from the floor, 31.3 from behind the arc and 68.7 from the stripe. Louisville turns the ball over 14.4 times per game and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. For the season, the Cardinals out-rebound opponents 37.9-36.3 per game, but they were dominated by the Lobos, 34-23 on the boards, allowing 15 offensive rebounds.

The Bottom Line: Louisville has played above its head. Green will bring the Cardinals back down to Earth.

The Pick: Michigan State 61, Louisville 51

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Jon Teitel's Coaching Greats: Louisville's Denny Crum

Jon Teitel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 03:18:18 -0400

Recently as part of his "Coaching Greats" interview series CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with former Louisville head coach Denny Crum. During his time in the "Derby City", Crum led the Cardinals to 23 NCAA appearances and two national titles.

Jon Teitel: Your nickname is "Cool Hand Luke". Who gave it to you, and how do you like it?

Denny Crum: Al McGuire gave me that handle because I never seemed flustered during tournament games. He said it on the air once and it kind of stuck. I always felt that I was under control and could tell what was going on.

JT: You began your playing career at Los Angeles Pierce College, but in 1956 you transferred to UCLA to play for Coach John Wooden. Why did you decide to transfer, and what was it like to play for Coach Wooden?

DC: I had always wanted to go to UCLA but they did not think I was good enough to recruit coming out of high school. I led the state in scoring during my freshman year at Pierce with over 27 points per game, and after that Coach Wooden came to watch me play, which he did not do often.

JT: After graduating you returned to UCLA to be an assistant coach and chief recruiter for Coach Wooden. How did you like working under Coach Wooden, and was it easy to recruit because of your school's winning tradition?

DC: Recruiting is never easy, but I got Coach Wooden to come down to San Diego to watch Bill Walton play because I told him that Walton was the best high school player I had ever seen. Coach thought I was nuts but that was my opinion, and we ended up getting Walton along with five other good freshmen.

JT: You are widely credited with pioneering the now-common strategy of scheduling tough non-conference match-ups early in the season in order to prepare your team for the NCAA tournament. How did you come up with that plan, and did it ever backfire on you?

DC: We had some years that were better than others based more on the talent level than the coaching. I felt that if we could find out in November and December what our weaknesses were then it would help us down the road. Good teams can exploit your weaknesses. If you are hung up on your won-loss record, then you might not schedule difficult opponents. It is nice to be undefeated going into conference play, but you are cheating your team and fans if you just play a bunch of bad teams.

JT: Your team was famous for running a man-to-man defense that switched on all picks. Why did you go with that defense, and what would your team do if your guard had to switch to defending a big man?

DC: Our philosophy was to front the guy in the post and play someone behind him. If you switch then no matter the size of the guy who switches you have two players guarding him. We had a bunch of big guards but only a couple of 7-footers in my career.

JT: In 1971 you decided to become head coach at Louisville. Why did you take the job, and what was the biggest difference between that program and UCLA?

DC: At Louisville we did not have any superstars like Walton or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but we made a living by recruiting good athletes out of the south and then teaching them the things they did not know.

JT: In 1972 you made it to your first Final Four as head coach. How were you able to come in and be so successful so quickly?

DC: At first I was stupid enough to think that was just the way it was supposed to be due to our success at UCLA! We just had a bunch of good players who worked hard and played together. I told them early on that I thought we could be a really good team and they bought into it.

1977 World University Games

JT: Your roster included Larry Bird, Darrell Griffith, and Sidney Moncrief. Was that the most talented team you have ever been around?

DC: Probably. They asked me to coach and I said that I wanted to pick my own players instead of having a committee pick them. We had great talent that was very coachable, and we did not get any weaker when we put in our bench guys.

JT: A bench-clearing brawl broke out in your game vs. Cuba. What started the fight, and how were you able to get your team's focus back on track?

DC: I was talking to one of my players on the court and some 30-something-year-old Cuban player came over and just pushed me into the stands, so my players ran out and started mixing it up. I think we won the fight, and we also won the game (which made it even better). Our guys were not intimidated by Cuba's aggressive style and we stepped it up a notch after the fight.

JT: You beat the USSR to win the gold medal. What did it mean to you to win a gold medal, and how did it compare to later winning an NCAA title?

DC: At the time I really enjoyed it. It was great to win it...but I would have a hard time saying it was better than winning an NCAA title with your own team and your own players.

1980 NCAA tournament

JT: Rolando Blackman made a 10-foot jumper to tie the game at the end of regulation, but Tony Branch made a 15-foot jumper with one second left to clinch a two-point overtime win over Kansas State. Could you tell at the time that Blackman was going to become a star, and where does Branch's shot rank among the most clutch shots you have ever seen?

DC: Branch had gone in for Griffith after he fouled out. He worked hard every day and was tougher than nails mentally, so it did not surprise me that he made the shot. To win without Darrell was a big victory. Blackman was already a star and there was no doubt he was going to be great in the NBA.

JT: You had an overtime win over Texas A&M despite shooting less than 40% from the field. How were you able to get the win despite shooting so poorly?

DC: That is a tough one to answer. You have to give Texas A&M credit for that: they were a good team. We just fought and scrapped even though we did not shoot it well.

JT: You beat LSU in large part due to a three-quarter court trap that you had introduced earlier that week. Why did you decide to use that strategy, and why was it so successful?

DC: LSU was not prepared for it: they had not played anyone who switched on man-to-man defense against their two big men. We did not let them catch it where they wanted to shoot it.

JT: Darrell Griffith scored 34 points (14-21 FG) in an eight-point win over Iowa after you did a pre-game locker room dance to loosen everyone up. Was Iowa star Ronnie Lester's first half knee injury the turning point of the game?

DC: Lester hurt his knee and missed most of that season. He was a really good player.

JT: Tournament MOP Griffith scored 23 points in a five-point win over your alma mater to clinch the title. What did it mean to you to win the title, and how did it feel to have to go through UCLA to do so?

DC: We had lost to them three times in the previous eight tournaments. At halftime I told my team that it was a shame that we had gotten all the way here and then played so poorly. Griff made a three-point play down the stretch and we were off and running: we deserved that win.

JT: That year's team (specifically Derek Smith) was credited with popularizing the "high five". Who actually started it, and what did you think the first time you saw it?

DC: It was Derek and Wiley Brown who did that. When they came to school they both spoke Pig Latin to each other so that nobody could understand what they were saying. They just had a flair for doing those kinds of things.

1986 NCAA tournament

JT: You beat Drexel after Milt Wagner wondered if Drexel was "one of them academic schools". Were you worried that Wagner was going to provide bulletin board material for your opponent?

DC: Milt had missed the previous season due to a foot injury and lost some of his quickness. We knew at the end of the game that we could just put the ball in his hands and he could make some free throws if he got fouled.

JT: Wagner and Pervis Ellison each scored 16 points in a win over Bradley (Hersey Hawkins scored 22 to lead the Braves). Could you tell at the time that Hawkins was going to become a star?

DC: Yes. He was an outstanding athlete who had great size for a guard. I would have liked to have him on my team.

JT: Billy Thompson had 25 points and nine rebounds in a win over North Carolina. What was it like to coach against Dean Smith, and how proud were you of your team making 15-16 FT in the final three minutes?

DC: Free throw shooting is one advantage that I always felt we had, and we also made good decisions down the stretch. I think North Carolina and Duke were the only two teams ranked #1 all season long and we had to beat them both to win the title.

JT: Herbert Crook had 20 points and 11 rebounds in an eight-point win over Auburn. Why did you decide to switch to a zone defense in the second half, and why did it work so well?

DC: We actually waited until about eight minutes were left in the game. We had worked on it in practice and I just thought it would be effective.

JT: Wagner had 22 points and 11 rebounds in a win over LSU. What was the mood of your team like going into the title game, and did you think you could win it all?

DC: We had a good team the previous year even though our record did not reflect it, so we were feeling good going into the title game.

JT: Tournament MOP Ellison had 25 points and 11 rebounds in a three-point win over Duke to clinch the title. How did that title compare with your first one, and how were you able to hang on and win the game?

DC: Johnny Dawkins had a big game early so we tried to focus on him down the stretch. Both titles were great but winning your first one is always special. Having a guy like Milt come back from injury and win it all was nice as well. We were trailing most of the game but were able to come back at the end.

JT: You were named National Coach of the Year three times in a 7-year span. What did it mean to you to win such outstanding individual honors, and do you consider yourself to be one of the best coaches in the history of the sport?

DC: I will let other people judge that but we went out of our way to play the toughest schedule we could. We had four Final Four teams and won two titles in the 1980s, which was significant because not too many other teams accomplished that.

JT: In 1987 you coached Team USA (featuring Danny Manning and David Robinson) in the Pan American Games in Indianapolis and won a silver medal after a five-point loss to Brazil in the championship game (Oscar Schmidt scored 35 points in the second half to finish with 46). Could you tell at the time that Robinson was going to become a star, and where does Oscar's performance rank among the best you have ever seen?

DC: Oscar was out of his tree! We switched on defense and did whatever we could but it was just one of those nights that great players can have. We were good enough against most other teams, but Oscar just threw them in from everywhere. We felt that Robinson was going to be a special player, even though he was a late developer.

JT: In 1994 you were inducted into the Hall of Fame. What did it mean to you to be inducted, and where did that rank among your all-time accomplishments?

DC: That represents an entire career, which is very special. You have to get an active Hall of Fame member to present you, and to have Coach Wooden do that for me meant a lot. You never think about making the Hall as your career goes along but I was as proud as could be when I got in.

JT: In 2007 Louisville named its home floor at Freedom Hall "Denny Crum Court". What was your reaction when you learned of the decision to name the court after you?

DC: I was tickled to death. I coached there for 30 years and there were no statues or anything, so I felt really honored.

JT: You play professional poker and breed horses. How did you get into those hobbies, and which one do you enjoy more?

DC: I got out of the horse business a few years ago but loved every minute of it. It was fun to take an active part in it and watch the horses run and congratulate the jockeys after a race. My college roommate had a poker room so we would golf in the morning, watch horse races in the afternoon, and play poker at night. I really enjoyed playing in the poker tournaments and now have my own tournament at a casino (the Denny Crum Poker Open), which is a lot of fun. I enjoy the competition and I can remain fairly good at it even after getting old.

Crum is also on Jon's list of best coaches in Big East history.

Cincinnati: Bob Huggins (1989-2005) 399-127, 14 NCAA tourneys, 10 conference titles, 1-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Connecticut: Jim Calhoun (1986-present) 627-244, 17 NCAA tourneys, 10 conference titles, 3 NCAA titles, 1 NIT title, 1-time national COY, 4-time conference COY
DePaul: Ray Meyer (1942-1984) 724-354, 13 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 4-time national COY
Georgetown: John Thompson (1972-1999) 596-239, 20 NCAA tourneys, 7 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 4-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Louisville: Denny Crum (1971-2001) 675-295, 23 NCAA tourneys, 15 conference titles, 2 NCAA titles, 2-time national COY, 2-time conference COY
Marquette: Al McGuire (1964-1977) 296-79, 9 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title, 1 NCAA title, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY
Notre Dame: George Keogan (1923-1943) 327-97, 2 Helms titles
Pittsburgh: Henry Clifford "Doc" Carlson (1922-1953) 367-247, 1 NCAA tourney, 5 conference titles, 2 Helms titles
Providence: Joe Mullaney (1957-1969, 1981-1985) 290-147, 3 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles, 2 NIT titles
Rutgers: Tom Young (1973-1985) 239-116, 4 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1-time national COY
Seton Hall: John "Honey" Russell (1936-1943, 1950-1960) 295-129, 1 conference title, 1 NIT title
USF: Bobby Paschal (1986-1996) 127-159, 2 NCAA tourneys
St. John's: Lou Carnesecca (1965-1970, 1973-1992) 526-200, 18 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Syracuse: Jim Boeheim (1976-present) 889-303, 28 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 1-time national COY, 4-time conference COY
Villanova: Rollie Massimino (1973-1992) 355-241, 11 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 3-time conference COY
West Virginia: Gale Catlett (1978-2002) 439-276, 8 NCAA tourneys, 4 conference titles, 1-time conference COY

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0400

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.

Poll: Which Remaining #4 Seed Has Best Chance to Advance?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:03:40 -0400

Louisville vs New Mexico: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:12:01 -0400

(4) Louisville vs. (5) New Mexico: West Region

Records

Louisville 27-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

New Mexico 28-6, 10-4 MWC (Regular-season and conference tournament champions)

Time: 9:40 p.m. Saturday

TV: TBS

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

First round results

Louisville def. Davidson 69-62

New Mexico def. Long Beach State 75-68

Winner will face: (1) Michigan State, (8) Memphis, (9) Saint Louis or (16) Long Island, Thursday in Phoenix

Rankings

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

New Mexico No. 21 AP; No. 22 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Louisville 10

New Mexico 29

Line: Louisville -2 (O/U 128)

Players to Watch

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 49.4% FG). Siva’s one of the best points guards in the country when he’s not scoring. When he puts up 17 points, like he did in the win over Davidson, U of L is one of the best teams in the country. He made seven of his 12 shots and had six assists and a pair of steals Thursday’s triumph.

New Mexico: F Drew Gordon, 6-9 Sr. (13.4, 10.9 rpg, 53.7% FG); G Kendall Williams, 6-3 So. (12 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 spg); G/F Tony Snell, 6-7 So. (11 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg).

Why Each Team Dangerous

Louisville: It seems like teams just miss shots against the Cardinals, but at some point, you have to figure Rick Pitino’s and the Cardinals’ gameplan is taking opponents out of their games. Louisville held hot-shooting Davidson to 21-of-60 overall and 4-of-19 from the 3-point line Thursday. It’s the third straight games and the fourth time in their last five that the Cardinals have held their opponents under 40 percent. For the season, opponents manage to shoot 37.9 percent from the floor and 30.5 from deep. They also average nine steals per game, which is seventh-best in the country.

New Mexico: The Lobos are on fire. They have won six straight and 13 of their last five. During the current winning streak, UNM has won by an average of 13.5 points per game. It has shot 46 percent or better from the field in five of its last six games and held opponents to 43 percent or less in five of its last six outings. New Mexico can beat you with its offense or its defense. It shoots 46.3 percent from the field, averages 73.2 points per game and forces 14.3 turnovers per game. The Lobos also out-rebound their opponents by 6.7 per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Louisville: As good as Louisville’s defense is, its offense is nearly as bad. Even in a 7-point win over the Wildcats, it shot just 21-of-52 from the floor and 1-of-5 from the 3-point line. Louisville has shot better than 40 percent from the floor just once in the last the last nine games and 44 percent or worse in 12 of its last 13 outings. The Cardinals are an average rebounding team with a plus-2 margin for the season, and their 14.5 turnovers per game will be a big concern against the Lobos.

New Mexico: The bottom line is New Mexico had to battle to beat a 12 seed without one of its best players, and the Mountain West Conference, in which the Lobos have compiled those impressive numbers, has not looked good in the tournament. UNM was out-rebounded and gave up 14 offensive boards to Long Beach and the Lobos turned the ball over 14 times. Those numbers have to be concerning heading into a game against Louisville.

The Bottom Line: New Mexico’s big wins over UNLV and San Diego State don’t look so impressive now. I like the way the Lobos are playing, but I’m starting to really believe in Pitino even though his team is nearly unwatchable.

The Pick: Louisville 66, New Mexico 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)