Lou-Lafayette

Sun Belt Basketball Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:40:43 -0500

Western Kentucky is once again the favorite after last year's impressive 25-win season. Up and coming teams like Troy, Denver, and North Texas hope to make some noise as well.

Conference Rank: 14th

10 year average: 16th

Conference Page

All-Sun Belt Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Brandon Hazzard	Troy	Sr
G	AJ Slaughter	Western Kentucky	Sr
G/F	Nate Rohnert	Denver	Sr
F	Desmond Yates	MTSU	Jr
F	Eric Tramiel	North Texas	Sr

Player of the Year - AJ Slaughter
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans AJ Slaughter (3rd Team) Brandon Hazzard Desmond Yates		Best Scorer: Desmond Yates Best Rebounder: Eric Tramiel Best Playmaker: AJ Slaughter

Sun Belt Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

53	West Kentucky	Sun Belt	1	NCAA
99	North Texas	Sun Belt	2	CBI/CIT
116	Troy	Sun Belt	3	CBI/CIT
140	Middle Tenn St	Sun Belt	4
174	Denver	Sun Belt	5
183	South Albama	Sun Belt	6
217	Florida Intl	Sun Belt	8
218	Ark Little Rock	Sun Belt	7
253	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	9
277	LA Monroe	Sun Belt	10
296	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	11
303	Florida Atlantic	Sun Belt	12
335	New Orleans	Sun Belt	13

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Sun Belt?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the Sun Belt Conference?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:57:29 -0400

The Ultimate Schedule: Sun Belt

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:07:00 -0400

Sun Belt Scheduling “Rules”:

- Four non-conference games

- Eight conference games

Week 1: Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska (September 5^th)

This could be a dangerous game for the Cornhuskers despite the fact that they have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. Nebraska is breaking in a new quarterback in Zac Lee, and the Owls have one of the nation’s more underrated quarterbacks in Rusty Smith. FAU didn’t perform well in games against BCS conference opponents last season, scoring just thirteen points in losses to Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota. No one will expect the Owls to compete much less win in Lincoln, but a solid performance may be a harbinger of things to come for FAU.

Other Games Considered: Troy @ Bowling Green (9/3), Middle Tennessee @ Clemson (9/5)

Week 2: Troy @ Florida (September 12^th)

The favorites to win the Sun Belt and SEC meet in Gainesville, and there will be a significant difference in talent level. For the Trojans this matchup is as much about simply competing with the Gators, if not more, than it is winning the game. No Sun Belt team has ever had a realistic shot at an at-large BCS bid because of the number of games played against SEC opponents, especially those of national championship pedigree. Just like FAU in Week 1, there are lessons to be learned that can be applied towards a run at the Sun Belt championship.

Other Games Considered: Kansas State @ Louisiana-Lafayette (9/12), Ohio @ North Texas (9/12), FIU @ Alabama (9/12)

Week 3: Middle Tennessee @ Maryland (September 19^th)

This is a non-conference game in which the Sun Belt representative has a realistic shot at winning. In fact the Blue Raiders beat Maryland in Murfreesboro 24-14 last season, and the Terrapins aren’t thought to be world beaters this season either. Chris Turner threw three picks in the loss, negating a solid performance from RB Da’Rel Scott. The Blue Raiders will need to use the same formula if they want to beat the Terps again, and find a way to slow down Scott as well.

Other Games Considered: UAB @ Troy (9/19), Florida Atlantic @ South Carolina (9/19)

Week 4: Troy @ Arkansas State (September 26^th)

Troy’s first game in defending their Sun Belt crown is on the road, and the Red Wolves are more than capable of knocking them off. The Trojans have won nine of their last ten conference road games and two straight over Arkansas State. But all-time they’re 3-6 against the Red Wolves, who would like to show better in Jonesboro than they did in the meeting two seasons ago (27-0 Troy). The Trojans were a +3 in turnover margin in last year’s game, blowing open a game despite the fact that the Red Wolves had the ball for twelve more minutes. Turnovers can either be the great equalizer, or they can blow a game wide-open. Arkansas State needs to at least break even in that department if they’re to knock off Troy.

Other Games Considered: ULM @ Florida Atlantic (9/26), Toledo @ FIU (9/26)

Week 5: FIU @ ULM (October 3^rd)

Two teams expected by many to fight it out in the middle of the Sun Belt standings meet in Monroe with the Golden Panthers looking to avenge a loss that helped deny them bowl eligibility last season. The second quarter in last year’s 31-27 ULM victory made all the difference with the Warhawks outscoring FIU 21-0 in that stanza. Florida International won the yardage battle but lost time of possession and ultimately the game as a result. FIU should be an improved team this season, which should give them a shot at winning on the road.

Other Game Considered: Wyoming @ Florida Atlantic (10/3)

Week 6: Middle Tennessee @ Troy (October 6^th)

If the Blue Raiders want to entertain any thought of winning the conference they need to get over the hump that is Troy. The Trojans have won the last three in the series, including a 31-17 win at Middle Tennessee in last year’s season opener. Troy won despite four turnovers thanks to a run defense that limited the Blue Raiders to just eighty-four yards on the ground, and Middle Tennessee also left point on the board in not taking advantage of those four turnovers. The “World’s Largest Toga Party” shouldn’t disappoint this year with both teams entertaining thoughts of a trip to the New Orleans Bowl.

Other Game Considered: North Texas @ Louisiana-Lafayette (10/10)

Week 7: Bye Week (October 17^th)

Troy’s trip to FIU could be a tricky affair despite the fact that the Trojans have won all five of their all-time meetings. Arkansas State/ULM gets a national television audience for a game between two of the contenders for the Sun Belt title, but it’s also a good time to take a week off.

Week 8: FIU @ Arkansas State (October 24^th)

While both are expected to be around the middle of the conference standings at season’s end, a game like this can ultimately be the difference between going to a bowl game and staying home in a league like the Sun Belt. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by three points or less with the Golden Panthers winning last year’s meeting 22-21. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton threw one pass in that game, and it was the touchdown pass that won the game for FIU. The Red Wolves dominated time of possession and held FIU to forty-eight yards rushing but lost in a heartbreaker. Don’t expect happy faces when FIU arrives in Jonesboro as a result.

Other Games Considered: Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana-Lafayette (10/24), WKU @ Middle Tennessee (10/24)

Week 9: Arkansas State @ Louisville (October 31^st)

The Red Wolves head to Louisville to take on a Louisville team they can be, provided they slow down Cardinals RB Victor Anderson. They’ve never met, and the Cards will have a new quarterback in Justin Burke. There’s been some heat applied to Steve Kragthorpe’s seat even though Louisville AD Tom Jurich hasn’t bitten the bait. A loss here, even with ASU beating Texas A&M last season, wouldn’t be the best thing for the head coach’s job security.

Other Games Considered: Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic (10/31), ULM @ Troy (10/31), Louisiana-Lafayette @ FIU (10/31)

Week 10: FIU @ Middle Tennessee (November 7^th)

FIU won last season’s meeting by ten, holding the Blue Raiders to seventy-two yards passing. Each team finished the game with three turnovers, but it was FIU who showed a little more offensive balance. They’ve only met four times and the home team has won all four, which could be a good sign for the Blue Raiders. The winner continues to entertain thoughts of winning the Sun Belt while the loser is dealt a near-fatal blow.

Other Games Considered: Florida Atlantic @ UAB (11/7), Louisiana-Lafayette @ Arkansas State (11/7)

Week 11: Arkansas State @ Florida Atlantic (November 14^th)

Depending on what happens up to this point the Red Wolves and Owls could end up playing for second place, or possibly something bigger. Florida International ran for just sixty-three yards in the 28-14 loss, not a surprise since the Owls were winless when they failed to run for at least one hundred yards. Arkansas State put up just under five hundred yards of offense in the win, even converting more than half of their third downs and winning time of possession by thirteen minutes. The Owls also won’t be thrilled to see ASU RB Reggie Arnold, who ran for 150 yards in the win.

Other Games Considered: Troy @ Arkansas (11/14), Louisiana-Lafayette @ Middle Tennessee (11/14)

Week 12: Florida Atlantic @ Troy (November 21^st)

The preseason “Game of the Year” in the Sun Belt matches the last two winners of the conference title. The Trojans win by thirteen in Boca Raton last season, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Owls to just seventy-five yards on the ground. Even in the era of spread offenses you need to be able to do something on the ground in order to win championships. It also doesn’t help when you’re just 3-of-13 on third downs. The last three meetings in the series have been won by the visiting team, so even with the Trojans holding a 5-1 advantage all-time the Owls definitely have a chance.

Other Games Considered: Arkansas State @ Middle Tennessee (11/21), ULM @ Louisiana-Lafayette (11/21)

Week 13: Bye Week (November 28^th)

The best games on the penultimate Saturday of the season are Middle Tennessee visiting ULM and Troy making the trek to Louisiana-Lafayette. How much of an impact either (or both) game has on the Sun Belt title race remains to be seen, but those aren’t rivalry games. Sit this week out in order to watch an in-state rivalry game that featured a wild finish in 2008.

Week 14: Florida Atlantic @ FIU (December 5^th)

The Golden Panthers needed one more win to break even on the season, and their close rivals made sure they fell short in a wild 57-50 Owls victory. The game featured fifty-three first downs, seventeen penalties and more than 1,000 yards of offense. How often do you see a fourth quarter in which each team scores twenty-eight points? Quarterbacks Paul McCall (FIU) and Rusty Smith (FAU) combined for nine touchdown passes and two interceptions in the thriller, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2009 meant more of the same. One of these teams could go into the season finale in need of a win to get bowl eligible; it’s especially sweet to deny your bitter rival a trip to a bowl game.

Other Game Considered: Arkansas State @ Western Kentucky (12/3)

Sun Belt Football Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:04:13 -0400

Trojans look to defend conference title

Favored to win the Sun Belt in 2008, the Troy Trojans had some recovering to do following back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Oklahoma State. Losing starting quarterback Jamie Hampton to a torn ACL didn’t help matters either, but the Trojans rose to the challenge in conference play. QB Levi Brown stepped into Hampton’s role and excelled, throwing for 2,030 yards and fifteen touchdowns in eight starts. For his efforts the Richmond transfer was named Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year, and his return is one of the reasons why Troy is favored to repeat as league champion.

Brown (or the recovered Hampton) will have with him one of the best receivers in the Sun Belt in senior Jerrell Jernigan, who amassed 868 yards on seventy-seven receptions. Jernigan is versatile as well, finishing second on the team in rushing in 2008 as well. Running back DuJuan Harris returns as well, looking to post a second consecutive season of at least 1,000 yards rushing. Just like Jernigan, Harris is a versatile offensive threat, finishing third on the team in receptions in 2008.

Defensively the Trojans return just five starters, but this is a very talented unit that should give league foes fits. Senior defensive end Cameron Sheffield was a First Team All-Sun Belt selection last season, as was middle linebacker Boris Lee. Jorrick Calvin is the lone returning starter in the secondary, but plenty of the options at Coach Blakeney’s disposal have game experience. The conference slate also works in their favor, with each of the other predicted contenders having to visit Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium. Another trip to the New Orleans Bowl is within the Trojans’ grasp.

Florida Atlantic made even more of a comeback than the Trojans last season, bouncing back from a 1-5 start to eventually become the first school in conference history to win consecutive bowl games. QB Rusty Smith seems to have been at FAU for the better part of a decade, and his experience will enhance an offense that returns eight starters. Defensively head coach Howard Schnellenberger has to replace eight starters, including all three linebackers and their top six tacklers from 2008.

Frantz Joseph racked up an amazing 154 tackles at the middle linebacker spot, and he leaves a very large hole for someone to fill. The lack of starting experience on defense puts a little more pressure on the offense to score points, but outside of trips to Nebraska and South Carolina their schedule sets up for another run at a conference title.

Steve Roberts and company could be in position to make a run at the Sun Belt title with fourteen starters back in Jonesboro. QB Corey Leonard is well on his way to becoming the school’s all-time leader in a number of passing categories, and it’ll help matters that the Red Wolves are experienced at running back and wide receiver. Defensively ASU welcomes back defensive end Alex Carrington, who racked up 10.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss on his way to becoming Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. Seven of the Red Wolves’ top nine tacklers from 2008 will be back this season.

Rick Stockstill’s Middle Tennessee team could be on the verge of a special season with seventeen starters back, including ten on offense. They’ll have to make up for the production lost due to the graduation of QB Joe Craddock. RB Phillip Tanner led the team in rushing and new quarterback Dwight Dasher, has some game experience, will have at his fingertips a very talented and experienced group of receivers. Defensively the Blue Raiders return seven starters led by leading tackler MLB Danny Carmichael. Middle Tennessee ranked third in the Sun Belt in total defense last season while its offense was only sixth. Those rankings could be reversed in 2009.

Louisiana-Lafayette has to replace some of the most prolific players in school history, most notably RB Tyrell Fenroy, the 2008 Sun Belt Player of the Year. Also gone is quarterback Michael Desormeaux, meaning that head coach Ricky Bustle will need to find suitable replacements to make up the 2,500-plus rushing yards those two combined for last season. All five starters on the offensive line return led by left guard Brad Bustle and center Chris Fisher.

Defensively the Ragin’ Cajuns welcome back nine starters. But when you ranked eighth in rush defense and seventh in pass efficiency defense cynics there is room for improvement. Defensive end Hall Davis and linebacker Daylon McCoy will lead the way for a unit that will have to pick up the slack for an offense that’s replacing its two best weapons.

The FIU Golden Panthers weren’t in the news much during the summer, due in large part to the hiring of Isiah Thomas as men’s basketball coach. But it wouldn’t be wise to sleep on Mario Cristobal’s team, which made significant strides in 2008 (improving their win total by four games from 2007). The next step is bowl eligibility, something that could have been achieved if not for close losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Florida Atlantic in November. The Golden Panthers return ten starters on offense, led by quarterback Pail McCall. However FIU will need to replace their top two rushers from 2008, but a running game that finished dead last in the Sun Belt would have needed revamping anyway.

Louisiana-Monroe returns sixteen starters, eight on each side of the football. Head coach Charlie Weatherbie will likely look to junior Trey Revell to start at quarterback. Kinsmon Lancaster was a capable dual-threat quarterback in 2008, passing for just over 2,000 yards while rushing for another 800 yards. Defensively the Warhawks have plenty of experience with their top five tacklers from last season all back, led by middle linebacker Cardia Jackson (127 tackles). Look for the ULM lines to be solid with four starters back on the offensive line and all three back on the defensive line. But will a team that finished seventh in the conference in total offense last season produce enough points to improve upon their win total (four)? That remains to be seen.

North Texas and Western Kentucky will bring up the rear, with the Hilltoppers playing their first season as a football member of the Sun Belt. WKU went through a trial run last season, playing five Sun Belt teams in a 2-10 campaign (both wins came against FCS competition). Six starters return to a defense that gave up 200 yards or more on the ground in five games and at least 150 in two more contests. Senior inside linebacker Blake Boyd will have to lead that unit, and an offense that struggled mightily last season has to replace quarterback David Wolke. The good news is that contributors return at both running back and wide receiver, and the offensive line returns four starters. But the Hilltoppers will go through some serious growing pains.

North Texas’ lone win came against WKU, and unfortunately for head coach Todd Dodge the success he enjoyed at Southlake (Texas) Carroll hasn’t followed him to the collegiate ranks. The quarterback position had a lot to do with last season’s 1-11 mark, but the presence of redshirt freshman Riley Dodge could make a difference. Let’s just say that the coach’s son should have a solid grasp of the offensive system. Running back Cam Montgomery (928 rushing yards, 9 TDs) returns, as does the entire starting offensive line.

On defense the Mean Green welcomes back six starters to a unit had a really hard time last season. North Texas finished 2008 last in the Sun Belt in total defense and turnover margin…yet the Mean Green ranked fourth in time of possession. Defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach will need his defense to improve its efficiency, which will be helped by their improved performance along with the offense not turning the ball over as often.

Storyline: Can Troy repeat? They’ll face stiff tests from Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State but it’s a definite possibility.

Players of the Year: QB Rusty Smith (Florida Atlantic) and LB Boris Lee (Troy)

How they’ll finish

1. Troy

2. Florida Atlantic

3. Arkansas State

4. Middle Tennessee

5. FIU

6. ULM

7. Louisiana-Lafayette

8. North Texas

9. Western Kentucky

Next: Sun Belt Ultimate Schedule

Sun Belt Conference Tournament: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:13:37 -0500

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Sun Belt Conference Tournament

The Sun Belt is a bit odd with it’s 13 team setup, with the first three seeds getting a bye from the first round, which is played at campus sites, then the remainder of the games played in Hot Springs, AR, which, as far as I know, is a relatively neutral site.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Western Kentucky	100.00%	90.49%	75.07%	55.40%
2	Arkansas Little Rock	100.00%	65.40%	41.27%	17.21%
3	Troy	100.00%	61.10%	27.52%	9.23%
4	North Texas	93.35%	58.60%	14.54%	6.11%
5	Middle Tennessee	71.43%	29.94%	5.46%	1.74%
6	South Alabama	90.37%	37.68%	13.99%	3.83%
7	Denver	91.25%	33.76%	16.96%	5.25%
8	Louisiana Lafayette	73.45%	7.57%	2.78%	0.70%
9	Florida International	26.55%	1.94%	0.56%	0.11%
10	Louisiana Monroe	8.75%	0.85%	0.13%	0.01%
11	New Orleans	9.63%	1.22%	0.13%	0.01%
12	Arkansas St.	28.57%	10.22%	1.52%	0.40%
13	Florida Atlantic	6.65%	1.24%	0.07%	0.01%

The Hilltoppers are pretty clear favorites, but beyond that there’s a lot of parity, with several teams having a solid chance of advancing. Arkansas St. look like the main lower ranked team that could cause some trouble.

#1 – Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (21-8, 15-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.169

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (Sweet Sixteen)

After making a great run in the NCAA tournament last season, the Hilltoppers seemed poised to give it a another shot, after an excellent season that including beating a highly-ranked Louisville team. WKU features the Sun Belt’s best offense; a group that makes a pretty good percentage of its shots, but really shines on the offensive glass, where it pulls down a lot of misses and generates a lot of extra opportunities. It also has a pretty solid defense, again predicated on rebounds and defending the inside.

Players to watch:

6-1 SR Orlando Mendez-Valdez, 14.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 58.6 eFG% - Mendez-Valdez became the first Hilltopper to record a triple double earlier this season, and while that was clearly a career game, he’s definitely capable of filling up those columns in the boxscore. His real strength, though, is his three-point shot, the best on the team, and when he gets it going he can put up a lot of points quickly.

6-3 JR A.J. Slaughter, 15.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 51.2 eFG% - Slaughter leads the Hilltoppers in scoring, and while his percentages aren’t as good as Mendez-Valdez’s, he’s a good player who shoots effectively and doesn’t make many mistakes.

#2 – Arkansas Little Rock Trojans (22-7, 15-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.094

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1990 (1^st Round)

The Trojans had a very solid non-conference season, including beating Creighton and Oral Roberts, and keeping it reasonably close with Memphis. Little Rock has the strongest defense in the conference, holding opponents to under 40% from the field. It’s equally good inside and outside, and does enough in the other areas to keep its opponents’ offense under wraps. With the ball, the Trojans are only average, a good inside scoring team that gets to the free throw line a lot, but really struggles with turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR John Fowler, 10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG,50.0 eFG% - Fowler is notable because he is one of the nation’s best players at getting to the free-throw line, putting up a FTA/FGA ratio of nearly 80%. He leads the team in rebounding, but isn’t really a force on the inside.

6-7 SR Shane Edwards, 11.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 51.2 eFG% - Edwards is second in scoring and rebounding for the Trojans, and is an effective forward, shooting over 50% from two, but really doing poorly with his three-point shots.

#3 – Troy Trojans (19-11, 14-4) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.066

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2003 (1^st Round)

Troy had a bad start to the season, but turned it around in 2009, going 14-3 since January 1^st. It’s managed this with a smart perimeter game, shooting over 40% from behind the arc, and rarely turning the ball over. The Trojans have cost themselves a lot of this success with some weak defensive play, forcing a lot of turnovers, but allowing opponents to make shots pretty easily, especially from three, and doing a poor job on the defensive glass.

Players to watch:

6-1 JR Michael Vogler, 10.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, 51.7 eFG% - Vogler leads the Sun Belt in steals and assists, and when you consider that he holds onto the ball well, and is a pretty good shooter, he’s the kind of guy who can generate a lot of useful possessions.

6-4 JR Richard Delk, 13.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.6 APG, 54.6 eFG% - Most of Delk’s value comes from his scoring; he’s not a major contributor in other parts of the boxscore, but he can have some big scoring games and is one of the team’s more effective two-point shooters.

#4 – North Texas Mean Green (18-11, 11-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.043

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

The Mean Green run one of the faster paces in the Sun Belt, but manage to maintain a pretty efficient offense, despite not making a lot of shots. The reason they can do this is free throws: North Texas gets to the line as often as any team in the nation, and a pretty good 73% mark from the stripe earns them a lot of points. A problem is that they send opponents to the line pretty often themselves, being the worst team in the league at fouling. Opponents take very few threes against the Mean Green, but with given that they make 50% of twos, there’s not much reason to be tempted into the outside shot.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Eric Tramiel, 12.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 59.9 eFG% - Tramiel’s raw numbers don’t really strike you that strongly, but he’s a very interesting player, leading the team in rebounding and shooting 59% from the floor. He also doesn’t turn the ball over much, and gets to the free throw line quite often. If he could get his free throw percentage up from 62%, he’d be that much more of an offensive threat.

5-10 JR Dominique Johnson, 10.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 50.0 eFG% - Johnson is a really effective guard, not a primary scoring option, but a good ball distributor who leads the team in steals, and shoots 39% from behind the arc and 86% from the free throw line.

#5 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (17-13, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.003

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1989 (2^nd Round)

After a 5-0 start to the Sun Belt season, Middle Tennessee fell off somewhat, ending up in 5^th place, and getting the toughest draw of the opening round in Arkansas St. I’ll credit the Raiders with managing to de-emphasize their weaknesses: they are the conference’s worst three-point shooters, but tend to focus on getting the ball inside a lot. When you combine good inside shooting with great ball control, they are actually a decently efficient team, but not posing a serious danger from long distance somewhat limits them. Defensively, they depend on holding opponents to just one shot a possession, a plan that doesn’t really work out when you let them make as high a percentage as MTSU does.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Desmond Yates, 17.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 61.9 eFG% - Desmond Yates is a really solid inside scorer, and the primary offensive focal point for Middle Tennessee. He’s shot nearly 60% from the field on more than 350 attempts, and his three-point shooting, while modest for most teams, is among the best on the Raiders.

6-4 SR Kevin Kanaskie, 12.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 48.7 eFG% - Kanaskie enters the tournament on a major roll, averaging more than 16 points in his last five games, and he’ll need to keep that up for MTSU to make a run. Interestingly, his assists have gradually decreased since the start of the season, and he hasn’t reached his average of four in more than a month.

#6 – South Alabama Jaguars (17-12, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.034

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

After winning the tournament last season as the #1 seed, the Jaguars will be hard-pressed to repeat, though their average level offense and defense mean they don’t have a glaring weakness to cover. They tend to pound the ball inside, good offensive rebounders who get to the free throw line often, but a 65% rate once they get there results in a lot of wasted shots. South Alabama plays at a slow pace, which lets it defend well, especially from inside the arc, but results in one of the nation’s worst turnover rates. It also is vulnerable to teams that take a lot of long-distance shots, and can potentially find itself shot out of the game.

Players to watch:

6-6 SR Brandon Davis, 13.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 60.8 eFG% - Davis doesn’t lead the team in points or rebounds, but that’s more about the size of his role than the quality of his play. He’s a 61% shooter from the floor who can crash the boards effectively on both ends, and is a big double-double threat. His main problem is staying out of foul trouble; when he does, he’s easily the most efficient offensive player on the floor.

6-7 SR DeAndre Colman, 11.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 55.6 eFG% - Colman is second in the conference in rebounding, and has one of the best defensive rebounding rates in the country. He’s somewhat inconsistent as a scorer, but his play on the glass should not be underestimated in its importance to the Jaguars.

#7 – Denver Pioneers (14-15, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.052

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Denver is a team I’ve followed in boxscores on and off all season, thanks to its incredibly striking statistical profile. The Pioneers play the slowest brand of basketball in the nation, and it pays off, as they are the country’s most efficient shooting team. They take most of their shots from three, where they hit a solid 38%, but their 58% on shots from two is what’s really eye-catching. There’s a price to their speed, however, as they are a relatively poor team with turnovers and are country’s worst rebounders. Defensively, the Denver system isn’t as effective; it struggles to defend the interior, and commits a lot of fouls. Still, this is a team that’s somewhat better than its record might suggest, and can cause some difficult matchups. With the Pioneers having one of the nation’s least experienced rosters, this year should be a good learning experience for a team that should improve in seasons to come.

Players to watch:

6-5 JR Nate Rohnert, 15.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 55.1 eFG% - Rohnert leads the Pioneers in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and plays more minutes than anyone in the Sun Belt. As one of the more interior oriented Pioneers, his 58% shooting percentage from inside is one of the main reasons Denver leads the nation from two-point range.

6-7, SO Rob Lewis, 12.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 56.7 eFG% - Lewis is the second half of Denver’s interior duo, and has the team’s best rebounding rate. He takes too many threes, where his percentage is not very good, but like Rohnert is a high percentage player inside the arc.

#8 – Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (10-19, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.026

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2005 (1^st Round)

There’s an interesting shift now that we’ve reached the #8 seed: all of the top 7 teams average more than a point per possession offensively, and all the teams from 8 and below, including Louisiana-Lafayette, average less. The bright spot for the Cajuns is a league average defense that protects the inside really well, but gets torched from behind the arc. An interesting tidbit about the Cajun offense is that it has one of the lowest blocked shot rates in the country, but doesn’t shoot particularly well inside.

Players to watch:

6-7 SO Travis Bureau, 12.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 53.4 eFG% - Bureau is an outside-oriented 6-7 player, taking the majority of his shots from behind the arc. His scoring has tailed off precipitously in recent weeks, and he will need to reverse that trend for the Cajuns to succeed.

6-8 JR Tyren Johnson, 6.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 43.8 eFG% - Johnson is the team’s best rebounder and shot-blocker, but should be discouraged from shooting, especially from behind the arc.

#9 – Florida International Golden Panthers (12-19, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.060

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1995 (1^st Round)

The Panthers will likely rue the fact that they missed out on hosting a first round game, as they have won just two road games all season, both against teams ranked below them in conference. FIU’s offense is decent, with good long-distance shooting covering for some big problems with turnovers and free throws. The defense is a major problem, though, not getting many stops or getting opponents to give up the ball.

Players to watch:

6-3, SR Alex Galindo, 15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 53.2 eFG% - Galindo missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, but showed few signs of rust on his return, leading the team in scoring. He’s a prolific three-point shooter who really added another dimension to the team when he was re-inserted in the line-up.

6-10, FR Freddy Asprilla, 14.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 53.7 eFG% - Asprilla is the kind of freshman that you should keep your eye on, as he’s become a critical player for the Panthers early in his college career. He’s the Sun Belt’s leading rebounder, despite missing a month in the middle of the conference season, and starting just 12 games on the year. He’s raw, there can’t be any doubt of that, just a 45% free-throw shooter who doesn’t assert himself defensively with shot-blocks, but there are few players in the country as dominant on the glass as Asprilla has been.

#10 – Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (10-19, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.099

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

The Warhawks had tough season, going through a few bad losing spells and having a lot of trouble on both ends of the floor. They are pretty good three-point shooters, but their abysmal 41% shooting from two basically sinks their offensive hopes. Defensively, there’s not much they do particularly well, with opponents scoring seemingly at will inside, and Monroe not being able to get back the ball often enough when its opponents do miss.

Players to watch:

6-8 SO Rudy Turner, 10.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 51.4 eFG% - Rudy Turner does a lot of good work inside, an effective shot blocker and an excellent offensive rebounder. His 51% from the field is easily the team’s highest, but his foul trouble limits his minutes.

6-6 JR Malcolm Thomas, 12.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 46.9 eFG% - Thomas has had a sort-of ebb-and-flow approach to his season, putting up some big performances at the start of the conference schedule, then going through a lean stretch before building back up in his last few games. He shoots about the same percentage from two and from three, but takes most of his shots inside, which results in a lot of misses.

#11 – New Orleans Privateers (11-18, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.100

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

It’s pretty tough to find a team that’s as bad a group of shooters as the Privateers: they’ve shot just 27% from behind the arc and 64% from the free throw line. They do better inside the arc, and most of their shots come from there, but they also place near the bottom of the league in turnovers and offensive rebounding. New Orleans’ defense is better than a lot of teams in the league, but it can’t make up for the offensive problems, despite leading the conference in forcing turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-3 SR Kyndall Dykes, 17.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 49.4 eFG% - The 3^rd leading scorer in the conference, Dykes has been on fire of late, averaging well over 20 points in his last four games, and shooting 55% from the field, though with just a handful of three attempts.

6-4 SR T.J. Worley, 16.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 50.1 eFG% - Worley is the only player on the Privateers to shoot higher than 50% eFG, which is mostly powered by solid two-point shooting, as his long distance shot is somewhat spotty. Most of his contribution comes in points, and he’s a good outside option when compared with the more inside-oriented Dykes.

#12 – Arkansas St. Red Wolves (13-16, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.020

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (1^st Round)

Arkansas St. is one of the most interesting teams I’ve profiled, entering the tournament on a nine-game losing streak, but actually ranked seventh by efficiency margin, and one of the least lucky teams in the nation, according to Ken Pomeroy. The Red Wolves boast one of the conference’s better defenses, with good offensive rebounding and strong interior defense being the keys. Their offense is the conference’s second worst, and is particularly bad inside, where most of its shots come from, but they’ve more often then not been able to keep opponents close. From a pure points margin stand, Arkansas St. is eight games below .500, while scoring just two less points per game than they allow, a surprising statistic. The numbers say that this team is the best chance for a surprise semi-finalist, but it’s hard to see them snapping their losing streak with a long tournament run.

Players to watch:

6-8 JR Eric McKinney, 8.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 54.9 eFG% - McKinney is a solid player, and while he doesn’t often explode for a big point total, when he does get offensive chances he takes them pretty effectively. He’s the team’s best rebounder and a very good shot-blocker, and an efficient offensive option inside.

6-5 JR Donald Boone, 13.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 49.5 eFG% - The Wolves’ leading scorer, Boone is also second in the Sun Belt in steals, and is one of the best three-point shooters on the team. He’s a decent inside shooter as well, and while his percentages aren’t spectacular, they’re just good enough for him to be efficient.

#13 – Florida Atlantic Owls (6-25, 2-16) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.137

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2002 (1^st Round)

Florida Atlantic is by a wide margin the worst defensive team in the conference, allowing opponents to score pretty easily. The Owls do defend the outside shot well, but the fact that they still put up such a poor defensive record is a testament to their inability to force turnovers and their trouble stopping opponents inside. Their offense doesn’t really cover for the defense much, as you’d expect from a cellar-dwelling team.

Players to watch:

6-5 SR Paul Graham, 18.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 45.4 eFG% - It takes the conference’s worst team to produce the conference’s top scorer, but unlike what you sometimes see with bad teams, Graham is both the centerpiece of the offense and an effective player. His shooting from the field isn’t particularly good, but he’s an excellent free throw shooter, and rarely turns the ball over, considering how often he touches it.

6-8 SO Brett Royster, 7.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 56.5 eFG% - The Sun Belt’s top shot-blocker also plys his trade for the conference’s punching bag, and is a pretty effective player, shooting well over 50%, getting to the line a lot, and being a solid rebounder. He’s not utilized much in the offense, but he’s been a better option than a lot of players who have taken more shots.

My statistical all-Sun Belt team:

Denver JR G/F Nate Rohnert, 15.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 55.1 eFG%

Western Kentucky SR G Orlando Mendez-Valdez, 14.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 58.6 eFG%

Western Kentucky JR G A.J. Slaughter, 15.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 51.2 eFG%

South Alabama SR F Brandon Davis, 13.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 60.8 eFG%

Middle Tennessee JR F Desmond Yates, 17.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 61.9 eFG%

Sun Belt Tournament: Pairings & Schedule

Press Release — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 18:26:31 -0500

Sun Belt Conference Announces Men's Basketball Championship Seeds and Pairings

NEW ORLEANS - WKU, UALR and Troy have earned the top three seeds in the upcoming 2009 Sun Belt Conference Men's Basketball Championship, set to begin this week. The trio will receive first-round byes and will await their opponents in the quarterfinals in Hot Springs, Ark.

This year's tournament begins with five first-round games at campus sites on Wednesday, March 4 and then moves to Hot Springs for quarterfinal, semifinal and championship competition at Summit Arena, March 8-11. All Sun Belt Conference tournament games in Hot Springs will be broadcast on SBC Extra via SunBeltSports.org. The men's semifinals will be broadcast on ESPN Plus and the finals will be aired live on ESPN2. Additionally, all of the action in Hot Springs can be heard on Sirius Satellite Radio.

Tie-breaking procedures were utilized to seed this year's tournament field, as both Middle Tennessee and South Alabama were tied for the fifth-seed. In a two-way tie, first the head-to-head records were taken in account; however, the two teams split their regular season series this season, therefore, remaining equal. Then, their records against the top seeds were used, beginning with the WKU. Both teams have the same winning percentage against WKU and UALR, yet the Blue Raiders did defeat No. 3 Troy once this season, while South Alabama dropped both contests. Middle Tennessee then becomes the fifth-seed and South Alabama is the sixth-seed.

Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida International also tied with identical 7-11 records. However, the Ragin' Cajuns defeated the Golden Panthers in the only meeting between the two teams. The Cajuns therefore take the eighth-seed and FIU is the ninth-seed.

New Orleans and Louisiana-Monroe also tied with 6-12 records; however the Warhawks defeated the Privateers in both meetings between the two teams. ULM therefore earns the tenth-seed and UNO earns the eleventh-seed.

For only the third time in the Sun Belt Conference's 33-year storied history, the league will play its Men's and Women's Basketball Championships at a neutral site. A total of 16 teams -- eight men and eight women -- will qualify to travel to Hot Springs, Arkansas. Teams will gather at Summit Arena to vie for not only the conference tournament crown, but for the league's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament as well. Not since the 1992 and 1993 seasons has the Sun Belt Conference aligned itself with a neutral venue. During those two years, the league championships were played at the Mississippi Coast Coliseum in Biloxi.

STANDINGS

1. WKU (15-3, .833)

2. UALR (15-3, .833)

3. Troy (14-4, .778)

4. North Texas (11-7, .611)

5. Middle Tennessee (10-8, .556)

6. South Alabama (10-8, .556)

7. Denver (9-9, .500)

8. Louisiana-Lafayette (7-11, .389)

9. Florida International (7-11, .389)

10. Louisiana-Monroe (6-12, .333)

11. New Orleans (6-12, .333)

12. Arkansas State (5-13, .278)

13. Florida Atlantic (2-16, .111)

MEN'S BASKETBALL SCHEDULE OF EVENTS

First Round - Wednesday, March 4, 2009 - Campus Sites

No. 9 Florida International at No. 8 Louisiana-Lafayette (Lafayette, La.)

No. 13 Florida Atlantic at No. 4 North Texas (Denton, Texas)

No. 12 Arkansas State at No. 5 Middle Tennessee (Murfreesboro, Tenn.)

No. 11 New Orleans at No. 6 South Alabama (Mobile, Ala.)

No. 10 Louisiana-Monroe at No. 7 Denver (Denver, Colo.)

Quarterfinals - Sunday, March 8, 2009 - Summit Arena

12:30 p.m. - Game 1 - No. 1 WKU vs. No. 8/9

3:00 p.m. - Game 2 - No. 4/13 vs. No. 5/12

6:30 p.m. - Game 3 - No. 2 UALR vs. No. 7/10

9:00 p.m. - Game 4 - No. 3 Troy vs. No. 6/11

Semifinals - Monday, March 9, 2009 - Summit Arena

6:30 p.m. - Game 5 - Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner (ESPN+)

9:00 p.m. - Game 6 - Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner (ESPN+)

Finals - Tuesday, March 10, 2009 - Summit Arena

9:00 p.m. - Championship Game (ESPN2)

Daily Conference Poll: Who Will Win the Sun Belt?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 01:01:52 -0500

Sun Belt Basketball Preview: 08-09

CHN — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:51:26 -0500

Conference Rank: 18th

Conference Page

All-Sun Belt Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Josh White	North Texas	So
G	Dominic Tilford	So. Alabama	Sr
F	Desmond Yates	MTSU	Jr
F	Alex Galindo	Florida Int'l	Sr
F	Carlos Monroe	Florida Atlantic	Sr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Carlos Monroe Desmond Yates		Points: Desmond Yates 16.0 Rebounds: Carlos Monroe 9.5 Assists: Kevin Kanaskie 3.3

Sun Belt Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

79	South Alabama	Sun Belt	1	NCAA
95	Middle Tenn St	Sun Belt	2
123	West Kentucky	Sun Belt	3
175	Ark Little Rock	Sun Belt	4
191	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	5
201	North Texas	Sun Belt	6
213	Florida Intl	Sun Belt	7
231	Florida Atlantic	Sun Belt	8
241	Denver	Sun Belt	9
247	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	10
264	New Orleans	Sun Belt	11
280	LA Monroe	Sun Belt	12
307	Troy	Sun Belt	13

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Sun Belt?

Other WCC Content

Conference Media Poll

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Rise & Fall: The Sun Belt

State of '08: Louisiana

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:17:12 -0400

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Duke or Carolina? BC or UMASS? Gonzaga or Washington.. or Washington State? What is the best program in each state? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a ranking of every program in every state.. based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

Up today: Louisiana. For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

LOUISIANA

LSU - There's not much to say here, because LSU is by far and away the top program in the state. The Tigers made the Final Four in 2006, though have quickly descended since then.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE - The Ragin' Cajuns were one of the best mid-majors from 2000 to 2005, which included 3 NCAA Tournament trips and 2 NITs. In 2007, the program was cited for rule violations, and the past three seasons haven't been up to the former standards. Last year's crew did show some promise though with an 11-7 Sun Belt record.

NORTHWESTERN STATE - Mike McConathy has done a great job in a decade at Northwestern State. In 2001 & 2006, the Demons made the Big Dance, and you might remember their epic 2006 win over Iowa in the First Round. Even last year when the team seemed to struggle, NSU still managed to upset SFA to make the Southland Championship game.

TULANE - The Wave haven't made a dent on the national scene since 2000, when they won 20 games and knocked off 6 Top 100 teams. To put that in perspective, in the last five seasons, Tulane has only beaten 6 Top 100 teams. Last year the Wave did knock off big-name programs like Georgia, Auburn, and LSU, something that most schools in the state couldn't accomplish.

LOUISIANA TECH - Last year's Bulldogs were extremely inexperienced and struggled to a brutal 6-24 record. This year's group should show substantial improvement, and will push for .500 in league play. Last year aside, La Tech has had decent success over the last decade, with scattered Top 150 and Top 100 finishes. The program's 7th NCAA Tourney trip will have to wait a couple more years.

6. NEW ORLEANS - Joe Pasternack did a nice job in his first season, leading UNO to upset road wins over BCS teams like NC State and Colorado, and finishing 8-10 in league play. This was the program's best season since making a surprise run to the Sun Belt finals in 2004.

7. SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA - SELU made its lone NCAA Tournament in 2005. In the past three seasons though, the Lions have merely hovered around .500 in SLC play. They did knock off in-state SLC rivals McNeese & Nicholls State all four times last year.

8. SOUTHERN - Since 2003, Southern has finished .500 or better every season in the SWAC. In 2006, Rob Spivery led the Jags to the NCAA Tournament in his first season at the helm.

9. MCNEESE STATE - In 2001 & 2002, McNeese enjoyed back to back postseason trips, reaching the NIT and then the NCAAs. Once 2004 got underway, there's been little success and not even one season above 200th in the RPI. This year should be similar to last with a middle of the road Southland record expected. The Cowboys did have a nice road upset of Lousiana-Lafayette last season.

10. LOUISIANA-MONROE - The Warhawks (nee Indians) haven't had much success on the basketball court in about 25 years. Outside of a surprising 2002 campaign (98 RPI), ULM hasn't sniffed the postseason in the past decade. Moving to the Sun Belt Conference a couple years ago has yet to reap any major rewards.

11. NICHOLLS STATE - From 2002 to 2005, Nicholls somehow managed to only average 2 D1 wins a year. The past couple years have been better, but nothing to write home about.

12. CENTENARY - In 2005 & 2006, Centenary was easily one of the worst programs in the country. They won a combined 5 D1 combines in that span. Last year was somewhat of an improvement with an RPI of 283, and this year's team might creep up into the 250 range.

13. GRAMBLING STATE - After an embarrassing 2000 campaign in which the Tigers went winless, Grambling has hovered around .500 in SWAC play for most of the decade. Then again, the SWAC is the country's worst conference, so .500 in league play isn't a big accomplishment. Grambling hasn't won a non-conference game against a D1 team since 2005.

Last: Kentucky - Next: Maryland

State of '08: The Introduction (& State list/links)