Memphis

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

2012-13 Non-BCS Top 25: November 19th

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 21:11:57 -0800

The Non-BCS Top 25 is a CollegeHoops.net original, copied by multiple major outlets. As a weekly companion to our popular CHN Top 50 ranking, it takes an in-depth look into the underrated universe of teams outside of the big six. The original Non-BCS ranking.

Non-BCS Top 25: November 19th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Creighton	3-0	x
2	Gonzaga	3-0	x
3	Memphis	2-0	x
4	UNLV	2-0	x
5	San Diego St	2-1	x
6	St. Mary's	3-0	x
7	New Mexico	3-0	x
8	Ohio	3-0	x
9	Murray St	3-1*	x
10	St. Joseph's	2-1*	x
11	Northern Iowa	3-0	x
12	South Alabama	2-0	x
13	Colorado St	3-0	x
14	Wichita St	4-0	x
15	Santa Clara	2-0	x
16	Saint Louis	1-1*	x
17	Temple	2-0	x
18	Belmont	3-0	x
19	VCU	2-1*	x

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last
20	Bucknell	5-0	x
21	Butler	1-1*	x
22	Xavier	3-0	x
23	CS-Northridge	6-0	x
24	Akron	3-2**	x
25	Illinois St	3-0	x

last = last week's ranking

* = Losses this week

Next 5: UCF (3-0), Dayton (3-1*), Davidson (1-2**), Detroit (2-1*), Utah St (2-1*)

Further 5: SMU (3-0), Drexel (1-2**), Southern Miss (2-0), BYU (2-2**), Cleveland St (2-1*)

Agree/Disagree? Post your thoughts below or join us @collegehoopsnet

Check out last week's Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Kentucky's John Calipari

Jon Teitel — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 09:48:48 -0700

Just before the NCAA tournament began CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Kentucky head coach John Calipari, whose Wildcats take on Louisville on Saturday in a national semifinal. Calipari has won more than 500 games at three stops: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky.

Jon Teitel: In 2009 you were hired at Kentucky, where you became the second coach to ever lead three different schools to a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. How have you been able to have so much success despite coaching at several different schools?

John Calipari: By making each program about the players first. Everywhere we have been we have focused on helping our players reach their dreams. If we are helping them become better players and people, what do you think that is going to do for us? In turn, they drag us along the way and help us win.

JT: You set a record by having five players selected in the first round of the 2010 NBA Draft. How crucial is recruiting to a coach's success?

JC: A lot of people did not like it when I said it then but I will say it again: having five players selected in the first round of the draft was one of the most important days in this program's history. This is about them reaching their dreams. Obviously that has an effect on who wants to come here, as kids know that we are developing them for the rest of their lives. One of the reasons that I was brought here is because I can recruit the best of the best. A couple of years ago I said that there were three keys to winning: really good players, really good players, and really good players!

2011 NCAA Tournament

JT: Brandon Knight went scoreless for the first 39 minutes before making a layup with two seconds left in a two-point win over Princeton. Where does that rank among the most clutch shots you have ever seen?

JC: I do not get into ranking shots and saying this one was better than that one, but I will say that is what winners do in those situations. At the time I did not know he was 0-for-the-game (I thought he had hit one shot), but I had all the faith and confidence in the world for him. He is not afraid to make a play. Guys like him are not afraid to miss.

JT: Knight continued his heroics by making a 15-foot jumper with five seconds left in a two-point win over Ohio State. Did you start to feel that you had a team of destiny?

JC: Our guys had a refuse-to-lose attitude. We had been in those situations before. I cannot remember how many games we lost on the last shot in January and February, but it felt like every game. Everybody was going crazy and saying that we were going to get bounced in the first round of the tourney. We put ourselves in a position to make that shot because we bought in defensively, Josh Harrellson transformed his body and became a new player, Knight grew into his position at point guard, and DeAndre Liggins dove on the floor for loose balls. We played for each other and grew together at the right time.

JT: Tournament MOP Kemba Walker scored 18 points in a one-point win by eventual champion Connecticut. You obviously know how to win games in March, but what will it take to get over the hump and finally win a national title?

JC: I do not take this as life or death, and the reason is because you die a lot. I have the peace of mind that I am doing the best I can and am doing it for the kids. If I do those things, I can live with myself and know that we are doing right.

JT: You are famous for popularizing the dribble-drive motion offense, which was invented by former Pepperdine coach Vance Walberg. What is the key to making it work, and why has it been so successful for you?

JC: It unleashes players and gives them the freedom to take their man to the hoop on any given play. Face it: every kid wants to put up scoring numbers and this offense allows for it, but this offense is not made for everyone. I cannot hide you in this offense. It reinvigorated me because it got me to re-think the game and study it again. The offense challenges the players and prepares them for almost anything on the court.

JT: You have written several books about basketball ("Refuse to Lose", "Basketball's Half-Court Offense", and "Bounce Back: Overcoming Setbacks to Succeed in Business and in Life"). What is the most important lesson you hope to teach people?

JC: To dream and write your own story. My grandfather was a coal miner and my grandparents did not even speak English when they came to America. Now I am the basketball coach at Kentucky. It is like "what?" Do not be afraid to dream big things.

Calipari is on Jon's list of best coaches in both Atlantic 10 and Conference USA history.

Atlantic 10
Charlotte: Bobby Lutz (1998-2009) 199-146, 5 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title
Dayton: Don Donoher (1964-1989) 437-275, 8 NCAA tourneys, 1 NIT title
Duquesne: Chick Davies (1924-1943, 1946-1948) 314-106, 1 NCAA tourney, 3 NIT appearances, 1 conference title
Fordham: John Bach (1949-1968) 263-193, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title
George Washington: William Reinhart (1935-1966) 319-237, 2 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles, 1-time conference COY
La Salle: Ken Loeffler (1949-1955) 144-28, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 NCAA title, 1 NIT title
Massachusetts: John Calipari (1988-1996) 189-70, 5 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Rhode Island: Frank Keaney (1920-1948) 401-124, 8 conference titles
Richmond: Dick Tarrant (1981-1993) 239-126, 5 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 4-time conference COY
Saint Louis: Eddie Hickey (1947-1958) 211-89, 2 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time conference COY
St. Bonaventure: Larry Weise (1961-1973) 202-90, 2 NCAA tourneys
St. Joseph's: Jack Ramsay (1955-1966) 234-72, 7 NCAA tourneys, 7 conference titles
Temple: John Chaney (1982-2006) 516-253, 17 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles, 2-time national COY, 5-time conference COY
Xavier: Pete Gillen (1985-1994) 202-75, 7 NCAA tourneys, 6 conference titles, 5-time conference COY

Conference USA
East Carolina: Tom Quinn (1966-1974) 102-106, 1 NCAA tourney, 1-time conference COY
Houston: Guy Lewis (1956-1986) 592-279, 14 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 3-time national COY
Marshall: Cam Henderson (1935-1955) 362-160, 3 conference titles, 1 NAIB title
Memphis: John Calipari (2000-2009) 214-68, 6 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Rice: Buster Brannon (1938-1942, 1945-1946) 85-37, 2 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles
SMU: EO "Doc" Hayes (1947-1967) 299-192, 6 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles
Southern Miss: MK Turk (1976-1996) 300-267, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title, 1 NIT title
Tulane: Perry Clark (1989-2000) 185-145, 3 NCAA tourneys, 4 conference titles, 1-time national COY
Tulsa: Nolan Richardson (1980-1985) 119-37, 2 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time conference COY
UAB: Gene Bartow (1979-1996) 350-193, 9 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 3-time conference COY
UCF: Kirk Speraw (1993-2010) 279-233, 4 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference titles, 1-time conference COY
UTEP: Don Haskins (1961-1999) 719-353, 14 NCAA tourneys, 9 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 2-time conference COY

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Friday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 07:44:42 -0700

After an "opening" day that went mostly according to form, the hope of many is that Friday's slate provides some upsets. And with some of the matchups providing a nice contrast in styles as well as talented players on mid-major squads who may not be household names just yet, there's a good chance that an upset does happen. Here's the schedule for today along with a game from each site that you should keep track of.

Columbus: (8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis
6:50 PM EST, TBS

Both of these teams have the potential to give Michigan State fits on Sunday, albeit for different reasons. Josh Pastner's Tigers were a team many expected to be in the Top 10 to start the season, but losses against the better teams on their non-conference schedule reuslted in Memphis likely being underseeded. Will Barton has been outstanding all season long, and the emergence of Chris Crawford has been another factor in their current run. The keys for Memphis are simple: make sound decisions without the basketball and make sure Tarik Black doesn't end up in early foul trouble.

Rick Majerus' Billikens get it done in a different way, as they're more comfortable with a game played in the half court. Kwamain Mitchell has played well at the point and despite his height Brian Conklin will battle inside for 40 minutes. SLU is one of the best coached teams in the tournament, so in that regards it may be safe to assume that at some point Saint Louis could have something special lined up Memphis especially if Barton gets rolling early. Both teams have been very good in regards to their efficiency numbers this season on both ends of the floor, which should lead to a tight contest. The team that does the better job of influencing the tempo of the game likely wins.

Other games in Columbus
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State; 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont; 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU Brooklyn; 9:20 PM EST (TBS)

Greensboro: (8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
1:40 PM EST, TBS

Xavier/Notre Dame is another contest to keep tabs on in Greensboro, but the first game of the day will be interesting in regards to how the Crimson Tide go about guarding Doug McDermott. With Tony Mitchell dismissed from the team a few weeks ago the most likely option for Anthony Grant is no longer present. But that doesn't mean that Alabama is without hope, as they allow opponents to shoot just 38.8% from the field. That's five percentage points better than Creighton, who's had issues defensively for much of the season. If McDermott and Antoine Young can get things going offensively the Bluejays should be able to create their kind of game.

But that's easier said than done, and they'll have to get stops at some point. Trevor Releford leads the way on the perimeter, and Alabama's going to need a Trevor Lacey or Levi Randolph to step up scoring-wise alongside him if they're to win. The battle in the paint between JaMychal Green and Gregory Echenique could be determined early if one of them gets into early foul trouble. The winner gets North Carolina and while most of the country likely hopes that it's Creighton who advances, they're going to need to bring a higher level of intensity on the defensive end if they're to move on.

Other games in Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Vermont; 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh; 7:15 PM EST (CBS)
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier; 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Nashville: (4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
7:20 PM EST, TNT

All four games in Nashville have the potential to produce wins by the lower-seeded team, so don't be surprised if the Bobcats give Michigan a run for their money. Point guard D.J. Cooper has played very well for John Groce, leading the team in both points and assists. Cooper was also a member of that team that knocked off Georgetown two years ago so the experience shouldn't be a concern either. Ohio's got some talented players alongside Cooper such as Ivo Baltic, Walter Offutt and perimeter shooter Nick Kellogg. The key for the Bobcats: defending the three.

Michigan may not have the most impressive percentage from beyond the arc (35.2%) but that doesn't deter John Beilein's team from taking the shot, as they score 36.8% of their points via the three. Trey Burke has been outstanding at the point for Michigan, and joining him on the perimeter are Stu Douglass, Tm Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak. If Jordan Morgan can control things in the paint that would bode well for the Wolverines as neither team is particularly good in the rebounding department. Ohio also forces more than 17 turnovers a game, but with Michigan averaging just 10.9 something has to give there. How well Ohio defends the three will likely determine the outcome.

Other games in Nashville
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas; 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure; 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(5) Temple vs. (12) USF; 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Omaha: (7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
7:27 PM EST, truTV

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the day due to the point guard position. Saint Mary's relies heavily on Matthew Dellavedova and rightfully so, as the WCC Player of the Year leads the team in both points and assists. On the other side is senior Lewis Jackson, who is one of the toughest players in college basketball. The Boilermakers need Jackson to keep Dellavedova out of his comfort zone on the floor, forcing him to both take challenged shots and make passes from tougher angles. If Jackson can do that the Boilers are more than capable of winning.

Also of note are seniors Robbie Hummel (Purdue) and Rob Jones (Saint Mary's), with the latter being virtually a guaranteed double-double for much of the season. Hummel's bounced back from two ACL tears to lead the Boilermakers in scoring, and he'll have to continue that today. The Gaels also have Brad Waldow inside, and off the bench Clint Steindl can make teams pay with his ability to knock down the perimeter shot. Having Stephen Holt go down didn't derail Saint Mary's on their way to the WCC regular season and tournament titles, and they're more than capable of getting to the Sweet 16 as well.

Other games in Omaha
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia; 2:10 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Memphis vs Saint Louis: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 21:23:18 -0700

(8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis: West Region

Records

Memphis 26-8, 13-3 C-USA (Regular-season and Conference Tournament Champions)

Saint Louis 25-7, 12-4 A-10 (At large)

Time: 6:50 p.m. Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio

Winner will face: (1) Michigan State or (16) Long Island, Sunday

Rankings

Memphis No. 29 AP; No. 27 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Saint Louis No. 37 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Memphis 17

Saint Louis 31

Line: Memphis -3½ (O/U 129)

Players to Watch

Memphis: G Will Barton, 6-6 So. (18.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 51.1% FG); G Joe Jackson, 6-1 So. (11.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg); F Tarik Black, 6-8 So. (10.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 68.6% FG). After a slow start and erratic playing time, Black has been outstanding in the Tigers’ stretch run. He has made 30 of his last 38 shots and scored 36 points, and had 18 rebounds, four blocks and three steals during the C-USA Tournament.

Saint Louis: F Brian Conklin, 6-6 Sr. (13.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 53.3% FG); G Kwamain Mitchell, 5-10 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg); F Cody Ellis, 6-8 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 39.5% 3s). After being suspended for all of last season, Mitchell returned for his junior year with a vengeance. Mitchell has scored in double-figures in 11 straight games and has had 16 assists during the Billikens’ 2-game A-10 Tourney run.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Memphis: The Tigers are among the handful of most talented teams in the country. They have a ton of offensive weapons and they go seven to eight deep with skilled players. While Memphis was a disappointment early, it has won seven straight, 11-of-12 and 15 of their last 17, winning regular-season and conference tournament titles. The Tigers scored 83 points – and could have scored more – in their last two C-USA tourney games. They shot 59 percent from the floor, 93 percent from the foul line and hit half of their 3s in the championship game win over Marshall. This team is scary explosive and they have held their last five of their last six opponents to 40 percent or under from the floor.

Saint Louis: The Billikens led the A-10 in scoring defense (57.5 ppg) and have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 1.09 points per possession. Much of that is because they can know down 3s, making 226 this year, and they have gotten to the foul line 612 times. Conklin gives Saint Louis toughness and leadership. Mitchell is a dangerous playmaker and scorer and Ellis is a deadly 3-point shooter. The Bills can go 10 deep and nine of the 10 are capable of big games. SLU has a solid 1.23-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and has a plus 2.8 turnover ratio. Oh, and SLU is very well coached.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Memphis: Youth, immaturity and continuity have hindered the Tigers over the past two seasons, but that may be a thing of the past. The Tigers aren’t a great perimeter shooting team. Only two Tigers shoot better than 30 percent from 3. Memphis was out-rebounded by its opponents this season, and they turn the ball over nearly 13 times per game.

Saint Louis: Statistically, the Billikens have no glaring weaknesses. They only out-rebounded opponents by 1.7 per game. They don’t have much of an inside defensive presence and they allow too many offensive rebounds. Their center, Rob Loe, prefers to play on the perimeter. The current Saint Louis players have no NCAA experience.

The Bottom Line: All of the variables indicate that this is a Saint Louis win – or at least a Billiken cover. But these aren’t the same Tigers who accrued negative stats throughout the season. They’re just more athletic and talented than Saint Louis.

The Pick: Memphis 76, Saint Louis 69

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

Bracketology Poll: Which Team Was Most Underseeded?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 22:16:43 -0700

Eight NCAA Tournament Sleepers

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 09:31:40 -0700

One of the tricky aspects of filling out a bracket is figuring out which team(s) can jump up and spring a surprise or two. Last season two teams from non-Power 6 leagues (Butler and VCU) reached Houston, and throughout the history of the 64/65/68-team era there have been teams who have made runs. Below are eight teams who can make surprising runs in the bracket, some to win a game or two and a couple others capable of getting to New Orleans.

Davidson: Bob McKillop's Wildcats may not have a shooter along the lines of Stephen Curry or a distributor the caliber of Jason Richards, but that doesn't mean that Davidson won't bring some talented pieces to the Dance. Forwards Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks have played very well this season, and guards Nike Cochran and J.P. Kuhlman were two of the best perimeter players in the SoCon. Going eight deep with five players in double figures can be tough for opponents who aren't familiar with Davidson, who is more than capable of pulling off an upset.

Detroit: The Titans finished third in the Horizon League during the regular season, but they played very well in grabbing the conference's automatic bid. And Ray McCallum Sr. doesn't lack for talent, beginning with his point guard (and son) Ray McCallum Jr. McCallum Jr. has improved as the season's worn on, doing a better job of picking his spots when it comes to running the show. Big men Eli Holman and LaMarcus Lowe are athletic interior players you don't always see in a conference like the Horizon. Depending on the two-seed, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Titans were to give their opponent fits.

Harvard: Not sure if the Crimson count as a true sleeper given the amount of attention on Tommy Amaker's program this season, but in favor of the argument they are making Harvard's first NCAA appearance since 1944. Forwards Kyle Casey and Keith Wright are one of the best front court tandems that doesn't get enough press, and Oliver McNally and Laurent Rivard lead the way on the perimeter. Harvard certainly didn't duck anyone in the non-conference portion of their schedule, doing so with this time of the year in mind.

Lehigh: Brett Reed has one of the best players in the country in guard C.J. McCollum, who leads the Mountain Hawks in points and rebounding while ranking second on the team in assists. But it's not just McCollum that teams should be worried about, as forwards Holden Grenier and Gabe Knutson are both averaging double figures. Lehigh's problem is that their strength of schedule could land them a seed lower than anticipated. But unlike last season's Patriot League representative (Bucknell), Lehigh has a guard in McCollum who can make plays on his own. If they can stay above the 16 line, the Mountain Hawks will have a shot at getting a win.

Memphis: The Conference USA champions took some swings at big non-conference wins early in the season and missed, with the conclusion of many being that they're too immature to turn things around. Well, Josh Pastner's team is playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. Knock them due to their conference if you like, but that shouldn't erase the fact that according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers this is a team in the Top 25 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. Will Barton's played like an All-America for much of the season and the emergence of Chris Crawford has relieved some of the pressure on Joe Jackson to run the offense.

Montana: Wayne Tinkle's Grizzlies are experienced (and most everyone will be back next season) and led by a pair of guards who can cause fits in Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Cherry was named Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and it one of the nation's leaders in steals, and the versatile Jamar was named Big Sky tournament MVP. Add in two quality frontcourt players in Derek Selvig and Mathias Ward and you've got a team capable of winning in the Big Dance. Montana's hot as well as they've won 14 straight games, and according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers they had the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the Big Sky (41st nationally).

Saint Louis: Rick Majerus' Billikens have been the second-best team in the Atlantic 10 this season, but to be fair they may have flown under the radar nationally thanks to the presence of Temple and Xavier. But there shouldn't be any doubt as to whether or not SLU can play, with the tough Brian Conklin being the anchor inside and Kwamain Mitchell leading the way on the perimeter. Before their loss to Xavier in the A-10 semis the Billikens won nine of ten games, and in Majerus they've got one of the best game coaches in the country.

South Dakota State: Nate Wolters didn't play his best game of the season in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Illinois to win the Summit League, but he's been enough of a constant to where what he did against WIU shouldn't matter much. Scott Nagy's got an experienced team who helped grow the program this season, their first as a full Division I member. Griffan Callahan and Jordan Dykstra are both averaging double figures, and their presence has helped to improve the performance of both Wolters and the team as the season's worn on.

Bracketology Update: Duke Loses, Memphis Rolls, OSU Looking at #1

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 15:41:05 -0800

Here's a look at every game played up until 6 pm on Saturday and how it affects NCAA Tournament Bracketology.

Bubble

North Carolina 69 - NC State 67

What does it mean? UNC should have a #1 seed locked up regardless of whether they beat FSU for the ACC title. NC State is firmly on the bubble, but the fact they were so competitive against UNC could actually be a help. NC St still looks like they should make it as a 12 or 13 seed.

Vanderbilt 65 - Ole Miss 63

What does it mean? Vanderbilt is looking at a 6 seed, and this win probably doesn't change anything. Having won 5 straight, Ole Miss may have been one win short of earning an at-large bid. After this loss, they're probably on the outside looking in.

Xavier 71 - Saint Louis 66

What does it mean? Xavier advances to the A10 final where they'll face Saint Bonaventure. Xavier should be locked into the tournament for now, looking at an 11 seed. This loss doesn't change much for Saint Louis. I had them as an 8 seed going into the day, but the committee could be thinking a 9 or 10 seed.

#1 Seed Battles

Florida St 62 - Duke 59

What does it mean? Duke had been vying for a #1 seed, but that is no longer a possibility. Florida St is probably looking at a 5 seed, but if they went on to beat North Carolina tomorrow, I could see them becoming a 4.

Ohio St 77 - Michigan 55

What does it mean? Ohio St rocked Michigan to advance to the Big Ten final. The Buckeyes could potentially earn a #1 seed if they beat Michigan St for the title. Michigan will be probably hang on to a 3 seed, but could be vulnerable to a 14 like Davidson or the MAC champion.

Kentucky 74 - Florida 71

What does it mean? Kentucky has struggled to dominate teams in the SEC Tournament, but keeps on winning. They're probably locked into the #1 overall seed regardless of what happens in the championship game. Florida is a probable 5 seed, but they could drop to a 6 if Vandy beat Kentucky tomorrow or San Diego St won the MWC tonight.

Title Game

Memphis 83 - Marshall 57

What does it mean? Considering Memphis beat Marshall by 20 on the road, its not a big surprise they blew them out at home either. Memphis rolled through the CUSA Tournament and should be looking at a 7 seed, with 6 as a surprise on the high end and 8 as a surprise on the low end. Marshall will be hoping for an NIT invite.

Potential Spoilers

St Bonaventure 84 - UMASS 80

What does it mean? The Bonnies advance to the A10 finals to face Xavier with automatic-bid on the line. The two met in Cincy back in January, where Xavier won by 13. If St. Bonaventure won, they'd probably be slotted in the 12-13 range and take a spot away from a bubble team.

One-Bid Leagues

Vermont 51 - Stony Brook 43

What does it mean? Vermont's won 14 of 15 games and earned the America East title by winning on the road. Vermont will most likely be looking at a First Four game against Norfolk St or tonight's MEAC winner. They could also conceivably jump past Lamar and earn a spot as a 16 seed in the Tournament proper.

Lamar 70 - McNeese St 49

What does it mean? Lamar earns the Southland's automatic bid and is looking at a 16 seed. At worst, they'll be in a First Four game, and at best they'll jump right into the tournament proper. They'll probably be competing with Vermont of the America East for that distinction.

Norfolk St 73 - Bethune-Cookman 70

What does it mean? Norfolk had a solid season as far as MEAC squads go, but should still be looking at a First Four game against Western Kentucky.

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0800

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.