Minnesota

Thursday First Round Predictions: ACC, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:02:51 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking (just about) every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's three key championship games. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC FIRST ROUND: AT ATLANTA

(8) Maryland (16-14, 6-10) vs. (9) Wake Forest (13-17, 4-12)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Maryland 70-64. RPI: Maryland 111, Wake Forest 169. Analysis: The ACC Tourney starts with an upset. Line: Maryland -3½. Pick: Wake Forest 60, Maryland 55.

(5) North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7) vs. (12) Boston College (9-21, 4-12)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – N.C. State 76-62; Feb. 1 – N.C. State 56-51. RPI: N.C. State 52, BC 236. Analysis: The Wolfpack will pull away early for an easy win. Line: N.C. State -12. Pick: North Carolina State 73, Boston College 52.

(7) Clemson (16-14, 8-8) vs. (10) Virginia Tech (15-16, 4-12)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Virginia Tech 67-65; March 1 – Clemson 58-56. RPI: Clemson 138, Virginia Tech 119. Analysis: Remember when being .500 in the ACC meant a lock for the NCAA Tourney? Line: Clemson -2½. Pick: Clemson 64, Virginia Tech 62.

(6) Miami (18-11, 9-7) vs. (11) Georgia Tech (11-19, 4-12)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Miami 64-49*. RPI: Miami 50, Georgia Tech 183. Analysis: Strange line. Makes me think Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t. Oh, well. The Hurricanes are significantly better. Line: Miami -4. Pick: Miami 67, Georgia Tech 57.

BIG TEN FIRST ROUND: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(8) Iowa (16-15, 8-10) vs. (9) Illinois (17-14, 6-12)

Tipoff: 11:30 a.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 26 – Illinois 65-54. RPI: Iowa 131, Illinois 77. Analysis: Not sure the Illinois players are interested in playing another game. Line: Illinois -2½. Pick: Iowa 60, Illinois 55.

(5) Indiana (24-7, 11-7) vs. (12) Penn State (12-19, 4-14)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Indiana 88-82*; Jan. 22 – Indiana 73-54. RPI: Indiana 11, Penn State 156. Analysis: The Hoosiers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten – if not the nation. Line: Indiana -11½. Pick: Indiana 81, Penn State 67.

(7) Northwestern (18-12, 8-10) vs. (10) Minnesota (18-13, 6-12)

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Minnesota 75-52; Feb. 18 – Northwestern 64-53. RPI: Northwestern 41, Minnesota 89. Analysis: John Shurna and Drew Crawford will not let the Wildcats lose this game. Line: Northwestern -2½. Pick: Northwestern 68, Minnesota 62.

(6) Purdue (20-11, 10-8) vs. (11) Nebraska (12-17, 4-14)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 22 – Purdue 83-65. RPI: Purdue 41, Nebraska 140. Analysis: Purdue has won 3-of-4 and even in the loss at Indiana, the Boilermakers played pretty well for most of the game. Line: Purdue -8. Pick: Purdue 79, Nebraska 64.

SEC FIRST ROUND: AT NEW ORLEANS

(8) LSU (17-13, 7-9) vs. (9) Arkansas (18-13, 6-10)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Arkansas 69-60; Feb. 4 – LSU 71-65. RPI: LSU 84, Arkansas 92. Analysis: A strange season comes to an Arkansas. Things should start to improve next season under Mike Anderson. Line: LSU -1. Pick: LSU 73, Arkansas 68.

(5) Alabama (20-10, 9-7) vs. (12) South Carolina (10-20, 2-14)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – South Carolina 56-54. RPI: Alabama 32, USC 185. Analysis: This game could just go a lot of different ways, depending on how interested the Tide are, but eight points is too big of a line for what should be a low-scoring game. Line: Alabama -8. Pick: Alabama 58, South Carolina 52.

(7) Mississippi (18-12, 8-8) vs. (10) Auburn (15-15, 5-11)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Auburn 69-68 (2OT); Feb. 11 – Ole Miss 61-54. RPI: Ole Miss 51, Auburn 136. Analysis: The Rebels are back on the bubble after three straight wins, but Auburn will end the dream. Line: Ole Miss -2½. Pick: Auburn 66, Mississippi 63.

(6) Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8) vs. (11) Georgia (14-16, 5-11)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Georgia 70-68 (OT)*. RPI: MSU 64, Georgia 107. Analysis: Both teams are so unpredictable that it’s hard to tell how this one’s going to go. The Bulldogs are physically superior, though. Line: MSU -5. Pick: Mississippi State 71, Georgia 65.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 143-108-3

Bracketology: Remaining Teams That Can Steal Bids

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 19:55:54 -0800

While bubble teams were able to breathe easier when Murray St and Creighton won close conference titles, the coast is not entirely clear.

Here's a brief look at the remaining teams most likely to "steal" bids from the bubble hopefuls**.

ACC

With UNC and Duke lurking, its hard to imagine a spoiler coming from the ACC, but you never know..

Clemson (16-14, 8-8, RPI #138)

The ACC might be down this year, but .500 in that league still counts for something. The Tigers would need to beat VT in the opening round and then steal one from Duke. Clemson only lost to Duke by 7 at Cameron.

Maryland (16-14, 6-10, RPI #110)

The Terps have an easy opening game against Wake Forest, and they'd they have to beat UNC in the quarterfinals.

Atlantic 10
While Temple and St Louis are locks, there is a ton of parity in the A10. All of these teams deserve more respect than they get nationally and are extremely dangerous in the A10 tournament.

Dayton (20-11, 9-7, #73)

Dayton cruised past GW in the opening round and now faces Xavier. While Xavier is more likely to get an at-large bid, both teams have similar resumes. The loser of that game will be eliminated from at-large contention.

La Salle (210-11, 9-7, #79)

La Salle beat a tough Richmond squad in the opening round and now faces Saint Louis. La Salle struggled against the Billikens earlier in the year, but does have a geographical advantage playing in Atlantic City.

St Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6, #95)

A dangerous squad, St Bonaventure faces bubble team Saint Joseph's Wednesday afternoon. The Bonnies have already beaten Saint Joe's and with Andrew Nicholson leading the way, no one wants to face them.

UMASS (21-10, 9-7, #87)

UMASS topped Duquesne Tuesday night, which sets up an afternoon game with #1 seed Temple. UMASS took Temple to OT a few weeks, so they're far from scared.

Big East

UCONN showed that its not impossible to run through the Big East Tournament from a Tuesday start.

Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13, #98)

Perhaps there is a little bit of magic left from this preseason top 25 team that struggled mightily.

Big Ten
These 3 teams have had their moments during the season, and would need to go on epic runs to win the league.

Illinois (17-14, 6-12, #82)

As bad as Illinois has been, how many teams have beaten the likes of Michigan St, Ohio St, and Gonzaga. The Illini would need Brandon Paul to go off for 40 every game in Indy..

Iowa (16-15, 8-10, #131)

Iowa has been surprisingly competitive this year, and has beaten Wisconsin twice along with beating Michigan and Indiana. They face Illinois in round one, the winner could have great momentum going forward.

Minnesota (18-13, 6-12, #81)

Once considered a potential tourney team, Minnesota's season went south in a hurry. They face bubble team Northwestern in round one and could seriously hurt the Wildcats at-large hopes.

Conference USA

While the RPI suggests Memphis and Southern Miss are by far the class of this league, these teams certainly have to be feared. If not for the tournament being in Memphis, the odds of one of these teams stealing a bid would be even bigger.

UCF (21-9, 10-6, #64)

With an opening round by, the Knights would face the winner of UAB or Tulane in round two. UCF is a close loss or two away from being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. With the exception of one bad showing at Memphis, UCF has been competitive in every CUSA game.

Marshall (18-12, 9-7, #66)

Like UCF, Marshall is a dangerous squad that could be looking at the NCAA's with a little more luck. As it is, they have a very favorable spot in the bracket, opening against SMU and then potentially facing Tulsa in the quarterfinals.

Tulsa (17-13, 10-6, #112)

Most wouldn't have guessed that Tulsa would earn the #3 seed in the CUSA Tournament.

UTEP (14-16, 7-9, #158)

A real darkhorse as a #8 seed, UTEP has beaten Memphis and Southern Miss this year, so you never what could happen if they got hot.

MWC
The MWC is a small league, so you only have to win 3 games to earn the title.

Wyoming (20-10, 6-8, #80)

The Cowboys face UNLV in the opening round, and have already beaten the Rebels. While they've struggled away from home, they can't be written off.

TCU (17-13, 7-7, #101)

TCU can ruin Colorado St's bubble hopes in the opening round. The two split their season series, and the game should be close.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a complete mess. Cal and Washington can't be considered locks and a ton of teams could potentially win the league title.

Arizona (21-10, 12-6, #77)

Arizona awaits the winner of UCLA/USC after getting a first round bye.

Colorado (19-11, 11-7, #83)

The #6 seed opens with lowly Utah. The Buffs aren't that much worse than anyone else in the league.

Stanford (20-10, 10-8, #97)

The only team in the league to beat a Top 50 opponent in non-conference play, Stanford has been playing better after slumping a few weeks back.

UCLA (18-13, 11-7, #118)

With the tournament in Los Angeles, and a favorable bracket, you certainly can't write off the Bruins.

SEC

Outside of Kentucky, the SEC is much more even than you might think. Teams like Florida and Vanderbilt are overrated, and 2nd seed Tennessee is not that great away from home. Kentucky might lose focus, and then the league is up for grabs.

Arkansas (18-13, 6-10, #100)

If the Hogs can get by LSU, they'd face Kentucky in the quarterfinals. If they could somehow beat UK..

LSU (17-13, 7-9, #89)

The same exact situation as Arkansas.

**I'll define the bubble as including the following teams:

BYU

California

Colorado St

Drexel

Miami

NC State

Northwestern

Ole Miss

Oregon

Saint Joseph's

Seton Hall

South Florida

Tennessee

Texas

UCONN

Washington

Xavier

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Minnesota vs Indiana: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 23:17:55 -0800

NO. 24 INDIANA (21-7, 8-7 Big Ten) AT MINNESOTA (17-11, 5-10 Big Ten)

Time: 1 p.m.

TV: ESPN (Dave O’Brien and Dan Dackich)

Location: Williams Arena in Minneapolis

RPI Ratings

Indiana 18 (No. 4 Big Ten)

Minnesota 78 (No. 9 Big Ten)

Line: Minnesota -1.5 (139.5)

Indiana Players to Watch: F Cody Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 64.4% FG); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 So. (11 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.5 spg); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (11.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 42% 3s). Zeller has been named Big Ten Freshman of the Week six times and is one of five finalists nationally for the Wayman Tisdale Award as the nation’s top freshman. Zeller is sixth in the Big Ten in scoring and rebounding and leads the league in field goal percentage.

Minnesota Players to Watch: F Rodney Williams, 6-7 Jr. (11 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 56.5% FG); G Julian Welch, 6-3 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 3 apg, 44.3% 3s); C Ralph Sampson III, 6-11 Sr. (7.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.1 bpg). Williams, who had 10 points and five boards in Wednesday’s 66-61 loss to No. 6 Michigan State, leads the Gophers in scoring, rebounding, steals and field goal percentage.

Storylines: Despite a loss to Iowa in its last Big Ten outing, Indiana appears secure for an NCAA bid with an 8-7 league record and its final two games at home, where the Hoosiers are 16-1 this season. Indiana completed a perfect 13-0 non-conference mark for the first time in 22 years with a 75-56 win over North Carolina Central on Wednesday. The Gophers are fighting for their post-season lives after four straight losses, with three of those coming at Williams Arena.

Keys: Minnesota handed the then-No. 8 Hoosiers their only home loss of the season on Jan. 12 to end a 4-game losing streak. Austin Hollins scored 18 points in the victory as the Gophers held Indiana to 4-for-18 from the 3-point line and 43.6 percent from the field. The Hoosiers are third in the nation in field goal percentage (49.2), eighth in 3-point percentage (42.4) and 22^nd in free throw percentage (75.2). The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten in scoring at 77.9 points per game, but they are 11^th in scoring defense, allowing 67.4 per contest. The Gophers are fourth in the Big Ten in field goal percentage (47.0) and fourth in field goal defense (41.4). Minnesota blocks 5.1 shots per game, which is tops in the conference. Minnesota turns the ball over 15.6 times per contest, which is the second-most in the Big Ten, but the Gophers also force the most errors at 14.2 per. Both teams are good rebounding squads. Indiana out-rebounds its opponents by four per contest, while the Gophers have a plus-3.3 rebounding margin. Minnesota is 12-5 at home this season, but is just 2-5 at Williams Arena in Big Ten games. Indiana has won just twice away from home in conference play (88-82 over Penn State on Jan. 8 and 78-61 at rival Purdue on Feb. 4).

The Bottom Line: Gut says Indiana wins, but the key variables – including homecourt advantage – favor Minnesota slightly. This is a tough pick and it should be an entertaining, see-saw battle.

The Pick: Indiana 70, Minnesota 69

Conference USA Having Bubble Issues: Wednesday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 22:39:10 -0800

In the big game of the night #18 Notre Dame continued their run with a 71-44 beating of West Virginia in South Bend.

1. While Memphis took care of business Southern Miss and UCF didn't, which is bad news for Conference USA.
For some time it's been assumed by many that Conference USA would send two teams to the NCAA tournament, with those teams likely being Memphis and Southern Miss. UCF has tried to fight their way into consideration of late but the Knights may have done irreparable harm to their at-large hopes on Wednesday night. Up 49-37 at the half at Rice, Donnie Jones' team was outscored 45-26 in the second half of what would become an 83-74 loss. How did this happen? UCF turned the ball over 18 times to just nine for the Owls, who converted those UCF mistakes into 21 points, and wound up being outscored in the paint 38-20. When that happens on a night that saw Rice's Arsalan Kazemi make two field goals it's easy to see that there were problems.

Southern Miss would most likely still make the tournament at this point barring an absolute disaster, but their margin for error is smaller thanks to their 76-68 double overtime loss at UTEP. C.J. Cooper led five Miners in double figures with 16 points and as a team UTEP shot 50% from the field while Southern Miss made just 37.5% of their shots. Shots inside of the arc proved to be the difference as UTEP shot 58.5% to just 34.8% for the Golden Eagles, who were led by Darnell Dodson (16 points). Could C-USA ultimately end up being a one-bid league? While this is an unlikely scenario for the league they've lost some of their margin for error with Wednesday's results.

2. USF and Wyoming allow great opportunities on the road to slip away.
Stan Heath's Bulls got off to an excellent start at the Carrier Dome as they took on #2 Syracuse. The team many refused to respect due to the lack of marquee wins on their schedule held a 20-7 lead nearly ten minutes into the first half. This would be where the tide turned however as the Orange went on a drawn out 26-0 run to gain control of the game, and even though USF hung tough throughout they didn't have enough offensively to win. Scoop Jardine led Syracuse to the 56-48 win with 15 points and four assists, and Anthony Collins led the Bulls with 12 points and ten assists. USF's pace worked out well as their deliberate style limted the Orange's fast-break opportunities. But when teams turned the ball over twice as many times as their opponent, especially on the road, it becomes near impossible to win.

Wyoming on the other hand took control of their game at #24 San Diego State in the second half, as they led by as many as nine points and had the hobbled Aztecs on the ropes. Larry Shyatt's team couldn't land the knockout blow however, eventually leading to the game going into overtime and the Aztecs winning 67-58. Wyoming scored just three points in the extra session, and to not have Leonard Washington (nine points, five rebounds) on the floor didn't help matters either. SDSU shot and made twice as many two-point shots as Wyoming, and the 14 points scored by Garrett Green proved to be huge with Washington struggling. USF and Wyoming will still have chances to reach the field, but things got a lot tougher for two teams whose resumes aren't the greatest when looking at their strength of schedule numbers.

3. Northeastern upsets George Mason, dropping the Patriots out of first in the CAA.
Turnovers have been an issue for Paul Hewitt's team for much of the season, but the Patriots may have hit fock bottom in that area. Mason turned the ball over 21 times (Northestern 22) in a game they would go on to drop 85-82 in overtime in Boston. This result leaves Drexel in sole possession of first place going into this weekend's matchups pitting the top four teams in the league against each other. Jonathan Lee scored 27 points and Kashief Edwards 22 to lead the Huskies past George Mason, and the job NU did on Ryan Pearson defensively was nothing short of impressive.

Pearson, widely regarded by many as the clear choice to be named CAA Player of the Year, shot just 3-for-12 from the field and scored 11 points. To win a share of the regular season title George Mason needs to beat VCU while also receiving help in the form of s Drexel loss to Old Dominion. Next weekend's conference tournament in Richmond is too tough to call at this point, and given the play of the upper half of the league against the lower half the most important thing for the contenders to do at this point is set themselves for th highest seed possible.

Quick Hitters

1. Minnesota's hopes of an at-large berth likely ended with their 66-61 loss to #6 Michigan State at The Barn, and Tubby Smith's team has no one to blame but themselves. The Golden Gophers went more than three minutes without scoring a point until Andre Hollins made a three with less than two seconds remaining. At 5-10 in Big Ten play Minnesota would likely not only have to win their last three league games but also do some damage at the Big Ten tournament to make a solid case for a bid.

2. Joe Ragland scored 14 points and Garrett Stutz added 12 and 14 rebounds as #19 Wichita State beat Illinois State 68-55 to wrap up the Missouri Valley Conference regular season crown. Gregg Marshall's team has multiple offensive weapons, and the fact that the Shockers are willing to defend (the Redbirds shot 37.7%) makes them a serious threat to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

3. Also clinching their regular season league title was UT-Arlington, who won at McNeese State 93-89 behind 28 points from LaMarcus Reed. Four starters reached double figures for the Mavericks, who got back on the right track after a two-point loss at Weber State ended their 16-game win streak. UT-Arlington shot 10-for-18 from three and 27-for-20 from the foul line, making up for the fact that McNeese State grabbed 14 offensive boards.

4. #22 Temple found a way to hang onto sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10 as they won 80-79 at La Salle in overtime. Micheal Eric played very well as he finished with 18 points, 12 rebounds and six blocked shots and Khalif Wyatt scored 25 to lead the Owls offensively. Earl Pettis scored 33 to lead the Explorers but it wasn't enough as the Owls also clinched a share of the Big 5 crown.

5. Keep an eye on the play of #5 Kansas guard Elijah Johnson as it will likely play an important role in the Jayhawks' play in the next month. Johnson scored 21 points as Kansas survived a tough night for Thomas Robinson, winning 66-58 at Texas A&M. Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor are the offensive leaders for Bill Self's team, but the more he can get from Johnson and Jeff Withey down the stretch the better.

6. Kevin Jones has some company in the race for Big East Player of the Year, and at this rate #10 Marquette forward Jae Crowder may even pass the Mountaineer senior. Crowder was all over the box score in the Golden Eagles' 82-65 win over Rutgers, accounting for 27 points, seven rebounds, four assists, four steals and three blocked shots. He and Darius Johnson-Odom are two big reasons why Buzz Williams' team has been one of the best in the Big East.

7. Zeke Marshall led five Akron players in double figures with 16 points as the Zips locked up a share of the MAC regular season title with a 79-68 win over Bowling Green. Marshall also grabbed seven rebounds for the Zips, who have now won 20 or more games in seven straight seasons under head coach Keith Dambrot.

Bracketology Implications: 18 Bubble Games Wednesday

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 22:35:21 -0800

Tuesday's bubble teams went 3-6, including big wins by Seton Hall, Kansas St, and Colorado St. With 58 games on tap, here's what to watch for Wednesday as it relates to NCAA Tournament & NIT Bracketology:

Major Bubble Games

Minnesota (17-10, 5-9) vs #6 Michigan St (22-5, 11-3)

Coming off 3 straight losses, Minnesota needs a big win in the worst way. While their overall RPI is not good, they've beaten 6 RPI Top 100 teams, including a shock win at Indiana. Adding Michigan St to their resume suddenly puts them back in the Big Dance picture.. and would give them much needed momentum heading into a rematch with Indiana. This game could change Minnesota's season.

#2 Syracuse (27-1, 14-1) vs South Florida (17-10, 10-4)

Normally, 10-4 Big East teams are NCAA locks. But with the unbalanced schedule, South Florida's record isn't as good as it seems. USF has just one RPI Top 50 win (over Seton Hall) and some questionable losses to the likes of Penn State and Old Dominion. Obviously, it would be a game changer if South Florida managed to beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. Don't bank it.

#25 San Diego St (20-6, 6-4) vs Wyoming (18-8, 4-6)

Despite wins over UNLV and Colorado St, Wyoming's tournament hopes are fading fast. A win at SDSU would give them 3 Top 30 RPI wins, something very few teams can claim. San Diego St dropped 12 spots in the AP Poll Monday, and a loss to Wyoming would strip them of any votes. Also, its non inconceivable to suggest that a loss would put them back on the bubble considering they're mediocre RPI. SDSU needs to take care of business before their season spirals out of control.

Tennessee (14-13, 6-6) vs Ole Miss (15-11, 5-7)

Like LSU, Tennessee is also .500 in SEC play. The Vols have had an up and down season that includes wins over UCONN and Florida (twice.) Perhaps that shows those teams weakness more than anything else, but you can't argue that Tennessee is playing better of late. Tennessee has been great at home and can't afford a slip-up here. Ole Miss actually has a much better RPI than Tennessee at 62nd, but no wow wins. A 4-0 finish would certainly give them a chance though, so this game is big for both sides. Both teams need to treat this like an elimination game.

Secondary Bubble Games

St. Joseph's (18-10, 8-5) vs Richmond (14-14, 5-8)

This is a must-win for St. Joseph's. The Hawks beat Richmond on a road, so it seems like a lock, but you never know. If St. Joseph's won, it would set up a huge game against Temple later in the week. A Hawks team that was 20-10, and 10-5 in A10 play would suddenly look like a major NCAA threat.

Long Beach St (19-7, 12-0) vs UCSB (15-8, 9-3)

As much as media, fans, and various computer ranking respect Long Beach St, its hard to see them getting a bit at this point. Pitt's struggles have rendered that win meaningless, which leaves Xavier as the sole big win. Still, if LBSU rolled through their remaining 4 league games and went to the Big West finals, you never know.

Rice (15-12, 6-6) vs UCF (19-7, 8-4)

UCF has some big wins (UCONN & Memphis) and a head-scratching loss (ULL). A trip to Rice is far from easy, but extremely important. A win tonight followed by a win against UTEP sets up a huge game against Memphis next week. But the Memphis game becomes meaningless if they don't get the job done here.

LSU (16-10, 6-6) vs Georgia (12-14, 3-9)

LSU has a decent RPI (65th), and a decent .500 SEC record. They're a very good team at home, but decent overall. This is a must-win game against a sub-par opponent.

Fringe Bubble Games: Bubble Team in Bold

Drexel (23-5, 14-2) vs James Madison (11-18, 4-12)

Drexel's been getting hype with votes in both the AP & Coaches polls. Odd, considering they've lost to Delaware, Norfolk St, and Georgia St. Another win keeps hope (and the hype-machine) alive.

UNCW (9-18, 5-11) vs VCU (23-6, 13-3)

VCU fairs better in other statistical ratings than they do in the RPI. The Rams' best win all season was by a point at Akron. VCU needs to win out, head to the CAA finals, and then hope last year's run gives them extra cachet.

Northeastern (12-15, 8-8) vs George Mason (23-6, 14-2)

George Mason has overcome early struggles to have a fine season. But they only have 2 Top 100 RPI wins, and both came at home. Like VCU, they're only hope is to win out through the conference final and hope for the best.

Duquesne (15-11, 6-6) vs Dayton (16-10, 6-6)

A home loss to Duquesne was one of two straight home losses (the other being to URI) that really ruined the Flyers season. A revenge win would not only feel good, but keep their slim hopes alive.

Marshall (16-10, 7-5) vs Houston (12-13, 4-8)

Marshall's season had a lot of promise, but they've struggled on the road in conference play. Their schedule is very favorable from here and out, including home games against Memphis and Southern Miss. If they went 4-0 the rest of the way, they'd have the makings of a tournament-worthy resume.

Sort of Bubble Games: Bubble Team in Bold

La Salle (18-9, 7-5) vs #22 Temple (21-5, 10-2)

La Salle is quietly going about their business and having a very solid season. A win would push them into the 60's of the RPI and at 8-5 in a good A10, they'd have to be taken seriously.

Iowa St (19-8, 9-5) vs Texas Tech (8-18, 1-13)

While I have Iowa St as a #9 seed right now, others feel they are closer to the bubble. A shock loss to Texas Tech would put them right back on the bubble.

UTEP (13-13, 6-6) vs Southern Miss (22-5, 9-3)

With the 11th best RPI, you'd figure Southern Miss was as safe as can be. But this would ignore the committee's history of non-BCS bias. The loss to Houston raised a lot of eyebrows, and so would a loss to UTEP. This is far from a lock win (UTEP just won at Memphis), and Southern Miss is probably not as big of a lock as you might think.

Memphis (19-8, 9-3) vs East Carolina (12-13, 3-9)

Basically, the same sentiment as the Southern Miss game applies here. Despite the solid Top 30 RPI, the Tigers don't have a load of eye-catching wins, and the home loss to UTEP gave the doubters fodder. This is an easy game, so a loss against ECU would be devastating.

Akron (19-8, 11-1) vs Bowling Green (14-12, 7-5)

Akron's a solid team with a solid #63 RPI. In a different conference, they'd be a bubble team, but in the MAC, they have virtually no chance.. which is why this is the "sort of" category.

Bracketology Trip: NCAA Mock Selection Committee: Part Four

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 11:01:05 -0800

Now that I'm back from the NCAA's Mock Selection Committee, I finally have time to sit down and answer some of the many questions asked by readers and followers on twitter. Sitting in with the likes of Committee chairman Jeff Hathaway and NCAA Senior VP Greg Shaheen (the person who understands the selection process best), I certainly know more about the process than ever before.

While the NCAA does have guidelines on how the process works, ridiculously titled "NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket," it does not really give you a clear picture. That document, as I noted in my last piece on the event, cannot explain how much time is really spent deliberating about the merits of each team. Tons of arguments are made, and statistics are mulled over to come to decisions. Perhaps even more information is thrown into the discussions than is really needed. The fact that committee member X watched team Y and thought they looked swell and had great guard-play is nice.. but not necessarily relevant to ranking teams. Regardless, thousands of man-hours are spent in the process.

So while my 15 hours spent in the Mock Committee might not stack up to those thousands, the types of discussions had and the process used was roughly the same.

Taken from twitter, here are some interesting questions and their answers. The language of some questions was changed for grammar (and or expletive) reasons. For reference, check out the final NCAA Mock Selection Bracket.

@stevenwolfjr What are the bracketing guidelines that cause changes in the s-curve?

If the Tournament was held at one venue, then you'd expect teams to play each other in a pure s-curve. However, due to many scheduling issues, the bracket is not set up as a pure s-curved. In fact, teams not only get moved around within a seed, but can change entire seeds. (Seton Hall for example was the 43rd team, in the 11-seed range, but ended up in a 12-seed game). The NCAA does a good job spelling out the scheduling concerns in the Principles and Procedures document noted above. Some of the big ones: Keeping teams close to home, not putting too many teams from the same conference in the same region, not playing on one's home-court, etc.

@DadofTwins2 Ohio U is playing in Nashville & Belmont sent to Louisville. Could they have reversed? OVC is the Nashville host, not Belmont.

This question speaks to the scheduling issues discussed above. Belmont ended up as a 14-seed. Located in Nashville, it seems logical that Belmont would have been sent to play their home games there considering they were not the official host, and thus could play in that venue. They also did not play 3 times in that venue, and so were not precluded by that rule. But, the committee aims to protect teams in the first 5 seeds from playing "road" games. Thus, the committee felt it was unfair to Marquette to have to force them to play Belmont in Nashville.

@charlespeterjr The eye-ball test is garbage. Why is it included?

The "eye-test" is certainly controversial. Besides the pure results, the committee is "encouraged" (Jeff Hathaway's word) to bring their knowledge of teams learned by watching/attending games to the table. This helps ensure teams pass the "eye-test." In other words, the "eye-test" enables the committee members to bring completely subjective feelings to the table. I was blown away when Greg Shaheen mentioned that 50-60% of the discussion that takes place is this sort of discussion.

This brings up one of the major lessons learned from my days in Indianapolis: while the committee is supposed to be selecting the "best" teams (whatever "best" means), there are no real set criteria for how they go about this. Individual members can focus on the RPI (or not), the Sagarin (or not), the Coaches Poll (or not), favor quantity of wins or quality of wins, etc, etc.

@columbusbuck Where did Northwestern and Minnesota finish? First four out?

Neither of these teams made the field, and there was no specific ordering of teams not in the field. Based on discussions and voting, I'd guess they were within the next 8 teams out. Note however that the Mock Selection was based on Mock Conference Tourney results, which included a lot of upsets. I think there were 2 or 3, maybe -4 less at-large teams than would be expected in the real bracket. Thus being 6th out in the Mock might put them 2 out in reality, and thus firmly in the mix.

@jamesgurland What did the committee think of Seton Hall?

Seton Hall ended up being one of the last four at-large teams in the field. Though Seton Hall has a high RPI, their quality wins are looking less impressive as the season wears on. The win over UCONN is no longer considered elite due to UCONN's struggles, and West Virginia has faded as well. Wins over St. Joe's and Dayton, while rsolid, would have been more respected if one of those teams made the at-large field.

@ervinsm What was said about Xavier and Cincy? Which one did the committee like more?

Xavier ended up as an 11th seeded automatic qualifier after winning the nock A-10 tournament. Cincy was left out in the cold. While Cincy does have big wins (at G'Town and at UCONN), the committee was turned off by a couple things: a) The home loss to Presbyterian (fluke or not) is still shocking when compared to other tournament-level teams, b) losses to sub-100 RPI teams St John's and Rutgers don't look great, c) Cincy got blown-out by fellow bubble squad Xavier, d) Cincy's pathetic non-conference schedule including 9 sub-200 teams was almost offensive to the committee. In the end, while Xavier did not make it as an at-large team, they were respected slightly more.

@setty1333 Do they ever consider margin of victory?

One of the reasons the NCAA uses the RPI is that because the RPI does not take into account margin of victory. Committee members can look at other rankings that do use this data, and there was a lot of discussion about how close or not teams played in individual games. Xavier really blew out Cincy, Florida barely topped Arizona, etc, etc. So while committee members seem to care about margin of victory, the RPI does not.

@bearcatsblog What's going to happen to Murray St when they lose in their mock conference tournament?

This was perceptive. The Mock results did in fact have Murray losing to SEMO in the OVC finals. Murray ended up 27th in the seeding order, but before that SEMO loss, they were only a few spots higher so I can't say the committee killed them for that mock result.

@waldenORU What does committee value most when comparing mediocre BCS teams to quality mid-majors. Quantity or quality of wins?

The answer is simply that each committee member can bring their unique perspective to the table. Some people favored teams with 5 quality wins, even if they had 10 tries. I favored teams that might have only won 2 quality games, but only had 3 tries.

Shawn Siegel took part in the NCAA's "Mock Selection Committee" in Indianapolis. Check out the Bracketology Blog for commentary on the event and the selection process. He'll be back with one more article on the event before moving on.

George Mason vs. VCU: Tuesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 21:50:08 -0800

With regards to some of the top non-BCS conferences in the country, this is seen as a big week to the uninitiated because of the Sears BracketBusters match ups over the weekend. Those games will be entertaining and all but there's no substitute for going out and winning your league, a mission both VCU (22-5, 13-2) and George Mason (21-6, 13-2) are looking to accomplish in the CAA. VCU's win over Old Dominion on Saturday night established a two-game gap between the top three (Drexel is also 13-2) and the rest of the CAA, which could be a step towards the league earning a second NCAA tournament berth.

If there's one stat to keep track of in Fairfax it's the turnover count, as Shaka Smart's team is one of the nation's best at turning their opponents over. VCU has caused 17.6 turnovers per game, a mark that leads the CAA and works out to their opponents having a possession end in a turnover 27.1% of the time. Briante Weber is the "man of steal" for this group as he tallies an average of 2.3 pilfers per game, and five other Rams average at least one steal per game (VCU boasts a steal percentage of 15.7%). This should concern George Mason as they're averaging 14.7 turnovers per game, a number that while not good gets magnified by the fact that they average 12.8 assists per game.

Mason's leader in turnovers per game is forward Ryan Pearson (17.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg), but while that's a negative there's no doubt that he's one of the CAA's best players. Pearson may not have the height of the standard big man but he's got the muscle required to be a tough matchup for VCU inside while also stepping out on the perimeter (36.9% 3PT). Joining Pearson inside is Mike Morrison (9.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg), who remains closer to the hoop offensively and acts as the last line of defense on the other end (1.9 bpg).

VCU has an improving post presence in sophomore Juvonte Reddic (10.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) who's gotten better as the season's worn on both offensively and defensively. Reddic grabs 3.1 offensive rebounds per game, the high for a team that manages to corral 36% of their missed shots. Next to him is sophomore seven-footer D.J. Haley, a player who will likely best be judged by his play next season as opposed to this. On the wing is VCU's most experienced player and leading scorer in Bradford Burgess.

Burgess (13.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) struggled to start the season but that was to be expected as one of the guys from a season ago was adjusting to being "the guy". Burgess scored 22 points in the Rams' win over Towson and followed that up with 24 against ODU, a welcome performance after failing to reach double figures in six of VCU's last seven games. Outside of Burgess, the Rams rely on a good mix of youth and experience in their perimeter rotation.

Darius Theus is the most experienced returnee while classmate Troy Daniels didn't see much playing time his first two seasons in Richmond. The remainder of the rotation is made up of underclassmen, with Treveon Graham and Rob Brandenburg scoring a combined 15.2 points per game. VCU isn't a great three-point shooting team (33.3%) but they do rely heavily on the shot, scoring 32.5% of their points from three. George Mason has been better at finding shots inside of the arc, and their perimeter rotation has done a good job of finding open areas on the floor.

Bryon Allen (7.7 ppg, 4.0 apg) leads the Patriots in assists but he's also second on the team in turnovers, and how well he performs against the VCU defense will play a major role in the outcome. Senior Andre Cornelius is the elder statesman of the group and freshman Corey Edwards isn't called on to score much but he does a good job as both a facilitator and defender. Sherrod Wright (9.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Vertail Vaughns (8.8 ppg) are arguably George Mason's best perimeter shooters, and overall four GMU guards average at least 6.8 points per game. If George Mason takes care of the basketball they stand a good shot at ending the Rams' win streak, but that's easier said than done.

#6 Ohio State visits Minnesota with the Golden Gophers in search of a victory that would stand out on their resume while the Buckeyes hope to bounce back from their loss to Michigan State. A key for Ohio State will be what they get from William Buford, and that's in regard to shot selection and not just the number of points that he scores. The Buckeyes admittedly got frustrated on Saturday evening, and they'll need to avoid falling into that trap at The Barn if they're to avoid a second consecutive loss. Rodney Williams and Ralph Sampson III need to come up big in their matchup with Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas if Minnesota is to win.

Oklahoma hosts Texas in a Big 12 matchup both teams need at this point, with the Longhorns clinging to hopes of an NCAA tournament appearance and the Sooners having lost four in a row. Oklahoma was Steven Pledger shot away from forcing overtime against Missouri last week, and they didn't exactly bounce back in a 65-47 loss to Texas Tech. Rick Barnes' team has won three in a row by beating teams they're expected to beat, and on paper Tuesday's battle in Norman would qualify as such a game. J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo will be key for Texas on the perimeter, and it's also good to have Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene coming off of solid performances in the win over Kansas State.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM (6) Ohio State at Minnesota (ESPN)
7:30 PM (11) UNLV at TCU (The Mtn.)
7:00 PM (12) Florida at Alabama (ESPN)
7:00 PM (22) Virginia at Clemson (ESPNU)
9:00 PM (23) Mississippi State at LSU

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Towson at Northeastern
7:00 PM Georgia State at James Madison (ESPN3)
7:00 PM UNC Wilmington at Old Dominion
7:00 PM UNC Asheville at Coastal Carolina
7:00 PM Tennessee-Martin at Kennesaw State
7:00 PM Loyola (IL) at Butler (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
7:00 PM William & Mary at Drexel
7:00 PM Radford at High Point
7:00 PM Delaware at Hofstra
7:00 PM Buffalo at Kent State (ESPN3)
7:00 PM VMI at Liberty (ESPN3)
7:00 PM St. John's at Seton Hall (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Manhattan at Siena
7:00 PM Texas A&M at Texas Tech (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Presbyterian at Winthrop
7:05 PM Illinois State at Indiana State (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern
8:00 PM Texas at Oklahoma (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Cleveland State at Milwaukee
8:00 PM Jacksonville State at Tennessee State
8:00 PM Youngstown State at Green Bay
8:05 PM Creighton at Southern Illinois (ESPN3)
8:05 PM UIC at Valparaiso
9:00 PM Northern New Mexico at New Mexico State (ESPN3)
9:00 PM VCU at George Mason (ESPNU)
9:05 PM Montana Tech at Utah State
10:00 PM Pacific at UC Davis
10:00 PM Cal State Bakersfield at Nevada
10:10 PM Northwest College at Seattle
1:00 AM New Orleans at Hawaii

Murray State Suffers First Loss: Thursday's Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:05:44 -0800

As the streak grew longer, it seemed as if it became a foregone conclusion in the eyes of many that Murray State would simply run through the Ohio Valley Conference on their way to a Sears BracketBusters contest against Saint Mary's. Steve Prohm's head coaching career got off to a dream start, as the Racers won 23 straight games with Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole leading the way. That run came to an end on Thursday night as the Racers fell 72-68 to a Tennessee State team that relied on balance to grab their eighth win in the last nine games.

Robert Covington led four Tigers in double figures with 17 points (and eight rebounds), scoring on a key tip-in with 1:25 remaining to give TSU a 69-65 lead. Just as important were the contributions of Kenny Moore (16 points) and Jordan Cyphers (ten points, three assists), who led a Tennessee State bench that outscored Murray State's reserves 30-10. Canaan scored 31 points to lead all scorers and Poole added ten but they were the only Murray State players to reach double figures, and their reliance on Canaan got the Racers in trouble down the stretch.

Jewuan Long's attempt to get Canaan (who was being double-teamed) was stolen by Patrick Miller and ultimately ended up in the hands of Covington, who missed both free throws to keep the score at 69-68. Canaan would drive the length of the floor before getting into trouble as he approached the foul line, ultimately turning the ball over and getting called for a foul with 3.5 seconds remaining. But if there's a question about how Murray handled their final possession (following a pair of Moore free throws), it would have to be why they attempted a length of the court baseball pass.

Why? The Racers had two timeouts remaining, and with that amount of time on the clock a play in which Murray State could complete the inbounds pass at around half court and use one of those timeouts may have been best. But hindsight is 20/20, and for a team that hasn't been in many situations like this down the stretch Murray State will get better from this.

The key: achieve better offensive balance, because while there certainly isn't a problem with Canaan and Poole being the primary options those two are going to need more consistent help. Outside of those two, Murray State shot 10-for-27 from the field, and the 18 turnovers the Racers racked up (Canaan: six) didn't help matters either. Does this outcome make the Saint Mary's game more important? From a seedind standpoint yes, due to the fact that Murray State is 3-0 against the RPI Top 100 and 12 of their 23 wins (three don't "count" in the NCAA evaluation process since they came against non-Division I opponents) are against teams with an RPI of 201 or worse.

But can someone honestly say with a straight face that Murray State, provided the wheels don't fall off, wouldn't be one of the 37 best teams should they not grab the OVC's automatic bid? Remember that bubble so many criticize (annually) for being weak? Let's step away from the ledge when discussing the at-large possibilities for Murray State, because there's a long way to go. The Racers now have the task of learning from their late-game miscues, and while this current team hasn't had to do that there's enough experience on the roster to make sure they do so.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Gonzaga not ready to hand over the WCC crown just yet.
There were many (myself included) who wondered if there was about to be a changing of the guard in the WCC on Thursday as Saint Mary's visited Gonzaga, as a win would give the Gaels a three-game lead with four to go. But the Bulldogs, who have won the last eleven regular season titles, weren't ready or willing to hand over the crown as they won 73-59. Kevin Pangos scored a game-high 27 points and three other starters reached double figures for the Bulldogs, who are now just a game behind Saint Mary's in the loss column. Matthew Dellavedova scored 20 points in a losing effort, but he shot 1-for-5 from the field in the second half and as a team the Gaels shot just 36% in the final 20 minutes.

By comparison the Bulldogs found just about any shot they wanted and knocked them down too, shooting 60% from the field (second half efficiency: 133.0) with Pangos scoring 15 of their 39 points. Robert Sacre, who wasn't a factor in the first meeting, scored 12 points and grabbed nine rebounds for the Bulldogs, who still have a home game against BYU on the schedule. Mark Few's team may not be in the driver's seat at this point, but if Saint Mary's is going to win the WCC the Bulldogs made sure it wasn't going to happen in their house.

2. As soon as we think we know who the Pac-12 frontrunner is, of course Washington gets blown out.
At this point it may be best to institute a rule stating that no one will attempt to anoint anone as the pacemaker in the Pac-12 race, because as soon as it seems like something is "known", that fact gets ripped to shreds. Lorenzo Romar's Huskies went to Eugene and got manhandled by Oregon, who raced out of the gates on an 8-0 run (all eight scored by Garrett Sim) and didn't look back until the 82-57 romp ended. Carlos Emory scored 16 points off the bench and Sim was one of three starters to score 13 points, and Dana Altman's team just looked far more prepared for what what going to happen on the floor than the Huskies.

That result dropped the Huskies into a tie for first with California, who took advantage of Maurice Jones picking up his third foul to whip USC 75-49. And just a game behind those two are Oregon, Arizona and Colorado, with the Wildcats beating the Buffaloes 71-57 thanks in part to double-doubles posted by Solomon Hill and Jesse Perry. Winners of three straight Arizona is the hottest team in this quintet, and with Utah visiting on Saturday afternoon it would be expected that the Wildcats earn the sweep. The Pac-12 needed some separation to ensure multiple NCAA bids (Cal and Arizona look to have the best resumes to date), but that doesn't seem likely to happen at this point.

3. Indiana proves to be too much for Illinois in the second half.
Illinois is a likely NCAA tournament team at this point, but they've done themselves no favors of late to say the least. The issue on Thursday night: Indiana's parade to the foul line, where they made 35 of 42 in their 84-71 win over the Fighting Illini. Illinois attempted just 15 free throws (making 12), and when a team can shoot 60% from the field and attempt 26 free throws (making 19) as Indiana did in the second half it's highly unlikely that they lose anywhere much less at sold-out Assembly Hall. Cody Zeller scored 22 points and grabbed five rebounds to lead the Hoosiers while Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo scored 18 apiece for a team that's won consecutive games for the first time since early January.

D.J. Richardson led the illini with 19 points and Meyers Leonard added 17, but the problem offensively for Illinois was that they essentially had three scorers to Indiana's four. Joe Bertrand and Tracy Abrams were both quiet in their starting roles, and Illinois made as many three-pointers as Indiana (seven) while attempting nine more (21-12). Indiana worked the ball inside of the arc for quality shots and it paid off, as they were frequent visitors to the foul line down the stretch. Bruce Weber's team has dropped five of their last six games, and with a trip to Michigan next on the schedule the Illini had better be careful. This isn't rock bottom, but things could spiral out of control if Illinois doesn't take care of their issues soon.

Quick Hitters

1. Minnesota was unable to take advantage of the opportunity to add a quality win to their resume as they fell at home to Wisconsin 68-61 in overtime. Wisconsin didn't make a field goal over the last ten-plus minutes of regulation but they were still able to get to the extra session, where Jordan Taylor and company took care of the Golden Gophers. At 17-8 overall and 5-7 in league play, Tubby Smith's squad still has home games against Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana and they need to take advantage of those opportunities.

2. While transfers have played a major role in the success being enjoyed at Iowa State and Cal State Fullerton, it can be argued that the transfer with the biggest impact is Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the Bulldogs' 70-60 win over Ole Miss, and Dee Bost added 15 points and 13 assists. Moultrie's play has been a big reason why Mississippi State has been one of the best teams in the SEC.

3. The Horizon League featured a matchup of the top two teams in the standings, and unfortunately for Cleveland State they couldn't get much of anything going offensively. Valparaiso jumped out to a 22-4 lead and really weren't challenged in a 59-41 win to take over sole possession of first place. Unfortunately for the Crusaders however, they lost Kevin Van Wijk to a knee injury in the first half and did not return. More should be learned about his status on Friday, and Van Wijk being out for an extended period of time would be a tough blow to take.

4. The race of interest in the South Division of the SoCon has been the one for second place (and the other first round SoCon tournament bye) thanks to the play of first-place Davidson, and Georgia Southern took a big step towards grabbing that spot with a 63-49 win over Wofford. The Eagles, who were led by Eric Ferguson's 15 points and 11 rebounds, moved to 10-4 in conference play while dropping the Terriers to 8-6.

5. Guess who could be making a charge into the top three of the MAAC: Fairfield. The Stags moved to 9-4 in conference play with a 60-54 win over Manhattan, who sits alone in third with a 10-4 mark. Sydney Johnson's team was expected to be Iona's toughest challenger but things haven't worked out that way to this point. With a deep rotation led by the likes of Derek Needham and Rakim Sanders however, Fairfield is more than capable of winning the automatic bid.

6. The Summit League race took a turn in the wrong direction for South Dakota State on Thursday night as they lost 72-68 at South Dakota, dropping two games behind Oral Roberts in the loss column. The Golden Eagles beat IUPUI 76-74 in overtime with Roderick Pearson's driving shot as time expired being the difference.

7. With UCSB off Bob Burton's Cal State Fullerton Titans could have taken over sole possession of second place in the Big West and that they did, scoring 60 points in the second half of their 100-94 win over UC Irvine. D.J. Seeley and Kwame Vaughn combined to score 51 points as the Titans won despite not having the injured Omondi Amoke at their disposal. Long Beach State is the class of the Big West, but Fullerton is just as capable as UCSB of knocking the 49ers off in the conference tournament.

Three Notable Performances

1. C Ben Aird (Utah Valley)
24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots in the Wolverines' 99-97 win at NJIT.

2. C Al'Lonzo Coleman (Presbyterian)
26 points (10-14 FG), 12 rebounds and two assists in the Blue Hose's 94-74 win over VMI. Coleman's shot 20-for-28 from the floor over the last two games.

3. G Alex Young (IUPUI)
34 points, seven rebounds and two steals in the Panthers' 76-74 overtime loss at Oral Roberts.

Gonzaga vs. #16 Saint Mary's: Thursday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:42:29 -0800

Could there be a changing of the guard in the West Coast Conference? While that may be a tough question to ask given the sustained run of success that Gonzaga (18-4, 8-2) has enjoyed over the years, winning the last eleven WCC regular season titles, Saint Mary's (22-2, 11-0) would establish a three-game lead with four conference games remaining with a win in Spokane. Led by seniors Matthew Dellavedova (15.5 ppg, 6.4 apg) and Rob Jones (14.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg), the Gaels have already swept BYU and handed Gonzaga an 83-62 loss back on January 12th. While Jones accounted for 11 rebounds and eight assists in that game he only scored two points, and the Gaels benefitted from other players stepping up their play.

One of those was redshirt freshman Brad Waldow (8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg), who scored 17 points and grabbed ten rebounds in the first meeting. Waldow's reached double figures in points in each of the last four games, with a 14-point, 16-rebound performance at Santa Clara to begin the streak. Mitchell Young was also instrumental in the win over Gonzaga as he scored 12 points off the bench, and that production proved to be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome due in part to the quiet night that Robert Sacre (1-for-7, four points) had. Both Sacre (11.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Elias Harris (13.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg) need to be productive if Gonzaga is to control the flow of the contest tonight.

Another issue for Gonzaga in the first meeting was the overall play of the backcourt, as Kevin Pangos was their most productive guard with 12 points and four assists. But the other members of the rotation, from David Stockton to Marquise Carter to Gary Bell Jr., were all relatively quiet as Dellavedova took over the game with 26 points and six assists. Stephen Holt was also a factor for the Gaels as he scored 17 points, and while Jorden Page and Clint Steindl were quiet on that night they both have the ability to step up as well. Steindl scored 16 points in 21 minutes off the bench in Saint Mary's win at BYU, knocking down four of six from beyond the arc.

While equal in three-point percentage (36.6%), Saint Mary's has been the better offensive team this season as they boast a higher efficiency (117.4 to 109.4) and a better assist-to-turnover ratio (1.4 to 1.04 for Gonzaga) on the season. Gonzaga is essentially breaking even on assists and turnovers to date, and they can't afford to do so if they're to beat Saint Mary's. If a guard other than Pangos can play well that will be just as much of a boost for the Zags as the raucous crowd. To become the champion sometimes it takes going into the house of the reigning champ and winning to take full possession of the throne, and that's the mission in front of Randy Bennett's team.

Illinois visits Indiana on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Norhtwestern, and it's a key game for both teams with regards to possible NCAA seeding down the line. The Hoosiers are coming off of a much-needed win at Purdue, and with the likes of Victor Oladipo and Jordan Hulls there isn't much reason to question the effort of Tom Crean's team. But for whatever reason that hasn't always been the case with the Fighting Illini, who really need to figure out their "identity" and how to get the most out of their talent. Meyers Leonard and Brandon Paul lead the way for Bruce Weber, but consistent play from the likes of Joseph Bertrand and D.J. Richardson is a must down the stretch.

There are a pair of important contests in the Pac-12 as Arizona hosts Colorado and Washington visits Oregon, with the Huskies currently alone in first place. The Wildcats, fresh off of their sweep of the Bay Area road trip, likely have the second-best at-large profile in the conference (Cal having the best) but falling too far out of first place could get them in trouble. Tad Boyle's Buffaloes have been a pleasant surprise within the league, and in Andre Roberson they've got the league's best rebounder. His battle with Solomon Hill will be worth the price of admission by itself, and the young talent on the floor for both teams should be a good sign for the future.

In Eugene Tony Wroten and Terrence Ross lead the way for a Washington team that allowed some important non-conference opportunities to slip away, making it even more important that they find a way to win the regular season crown. Oregon's perimeter trio of Devoe Joseph, Garrett Sim and E.J. Singler are skilled enough to be a handful themselves, and this game is usually one that gets the fans into Matthew Knight Arena.

Ole Miss could really use a win at Mississippi State to help their fleeting at-large hopes and the same goes for Minnesota, who hosts Wisconsin. NC State (at Georgia Tech) and Miami (hosting Virginia Tech) are both playing games they can't afford to lose for the sake of their respective resumes, and undefeated Murray State is also in action. Lastly the Horizon League features an important contest as Valparaiso visits Cleveland State with the Vikings (10-2) up a game in the loss column.

Top 25 Games
8:00 PM Tennessee State at (7) Murray State (ESPN3)
11:00 PM (13) Saint Mary's at Gonzaga (ESPN2)
7:00 PM Ole Miss at (18) Mississippi State (ESPN2)
7:00 PM (22) Wisconsin at Minnesota (ESPN)
8:00 PM Illinois at (23) Indiana (BTN)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Lehigh at American (CBS SN)
7:00 PM NC State at Georgia Tech (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Maine at Boston University
7:00 PM Albany at New Hampshire (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Appalachian State at Furman
7:00 PM Elon at Chattanooga (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Wofford at Georgia Southern
7:00 PM Siena at Niagara
7:00 PM High Point at Coastal Carolina
7:00 PM Valparaiso at Cleveland State
7:00 PM Winthrop at Campbell
7:00 PM Rider at Canisius
7:00 PM Denver at Florida Atlantic
7:00 PM North Texas at Florida International (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Radford at Gardner-Webb
7:00 PM VMI at Presbyterian
7:00 PM UMBC at Stony Brook
7:00 PM Davidson at Citadel
7:00 PM Butler at Youngstown State (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Utah Valley at N.J.I.T.
7:30 PM Liberty at Charleston Southern
7:30 PM Manhattan at Fairfield
8:00 PM Arkansas State at South Alabama
8:00 PM North Dakota State at UMKC
8:00 PM Western Carolina at Charleston (ESPN3)
8:00 PM South Dakota State at South Dakota
8:00 PM Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (FCS)
8:00 PM UNC Greensboro at Samford
8:00 PM Tennessee-Martin at Southeast Missouri State
8:00 PM Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech
8:05 PM IUPUI at Oral Roberts (FCS)
8:05 PM Arkansas-Little Rock at Louisiana-Lafayette
8:05 PM North Dakota at Chicago State
8:30 PM Utah at Arizona State
8:30 PM Marist at St. Peter's (ESPN3)
8:35 PM Weber State at Northern Arizona (FCS)
9:00 PM Colorado at Arizona (ESPN)
9:00 PM Iowa at Northwestern (ESPNU)
9:00 PM Western Illinois at Southern Utah
9:00 PM Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (ESPN2)
9:05 PM Louisiana Tech at Utah State (ESPN3)
9:05 PM Montana at Northern Colorado
10:00 PM UC Riverside at Cal Poly
10:00 PM Fresno State at San Jose State (ESPN3)
10:00 PM Washington State at Oregon State
10:00 PM San Diego at Pepperdine
10:05 PM Montana State at Sacramento State
10:05 PM Portland State at Idaho State
10:05 PM UC Irvine at Cal State Fullerton
10:30 PM California at USC
10:30 PM Long Beach State at Pacific
11:00 PM Stanford at UCLA
11:00 PM New Mexico State at Idaho
11:00 PM Cal State Northridge at UC Davis
11:00 PM Washington at Oregon (FSN)
11:00 PM Loyola Marymount at Portland
11:00 PM Santa Clara at San Francisco (ESPNU)
12:00 AM Nevada at Hawaii

Wisconsin vs Minnesota: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:32:45 -0800

No. 22 Wisconsin (18-6, 7-4 Big Ten) AT Minnesota (17-7, 5-6 Big Ten)

Time: 7 p.m. (6 p.m. CT)

TV: ESPN

Location: Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minn.

RPI Ratings

Wisconsin 31 (No. 5 Big Ten)

Minnesota 49 (No. 8 Big Ten)

Line: Wisconsin -1½ (O/U 112)

Wisconsin Players to Watch: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.1 rpg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 35.4% 3s); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (10 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg). Taylor went 159 minutes without a turnover until he committed one with 12:43 left against Ohio State. He finished the loss with 12 points, six assists, three rebounds, two steals and three turnovers.

Minnesota Players to Watch: F Rodney Williams, 6-7 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 57.2% FG); G Julian Welch, 6-3 Jr. (10.2 ppg, 2.7 apg, 45.3% 3s); G Chip Armelin, 6-3 So. (6.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg). Armelin is coming off the best performance of his career, putting up 15 points (on 7-of-11 shooting), five rebounds and three assists in 24 minutes of the Gophers’ 69-61 win at Nebraska on Sunday.

Storylines: Ohio State ended Wisconsin’s 6-game winning streak – and likely its bid to win the regular-season Big Ten championship on Sunday. Still, the Badgers are 7-4 in the conference after starting 1-3. The Gophers are 5-6 in the Big Ten after Sunday’s win over Nebraska and are hanging around on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Keys: Wisconsin is 5-2 in true road games this season, including a 4-1 mark in the Big Ten, and the Gophers are 12-2 at Williams Arena this season, including big victories over Northwestern and Illinois in their last two home games. The Badgers are surrendering just 54 points and 36.9 percent from the field in conference road games. However, they have shot just 31.7 percent and have scored 52 points or fewer in their last two trips to Minneapolis (both losses). Wisconsin shots just 40 percent and was 5-for-27 from 3-point range in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State. The Gophers shot 54 percent from the floor and 41.2 from the 3-point line in Saturday’s triumph at Nebraska. However, they went 8-for-16 from the line and are just 17 of their last 30 at the charity stripe. Both teams have very balanced offenses. Only Taylor averages more than 10.5 points for either team. Minnesota has superior depth, going 10 deep comfortably. Five players off the Gopher bench average at least 10 minutes per game. Led by Armelin, the Minnesota bench outscored Nebraska’s 40-7 on Saturday. Minnesota is 14-3 this season and 79-38 all-time when it outscores the opposing bench under coach Tubby Smith. Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 49.8 points per game and it is second to Kentucky in field goal defense at 36.5 percent. Minnesota is third in the Big Ten in field goal percentage, connecting on 47.5 percent of its shots and 36 percent of its 3-pointers. Led by Ralph Sampson’s 1.3 blocked shots per game, the Gophers lead the Big Ten at 5.4 swats per contest. That’s 22^nd best in America. The Gophers are second in the conference with 16 assists per game (behind Michigan State’s 16.2), good for 20^th in the country. However, the Gophers turn the ball over a league-high 14 times per game (tied with Nebraska). The Badgers are the Big Ten’s best, committing just 8.8 errors per contest. Minnesota leads the “Border War” series, 94-85 over Wisconsin, including a 61-31 record at home against he Badgers all-time.

The Bottom Line: Minnesota’s height, depth and athleticism – particularly that of Williams and Welch – could be tough for the Badgers to handle. Throw the homecourt advantage and their desperation to stay in NCAA Tournament and the Gophers have an excellent shot at pulling off a minor upset.

The Pick: Minnesota 64, Wisconsin 59

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 58-34