Mississippi St

GameNight: Mississippi St vs Washington St (Legends)

Evan Dorey — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 10:09:10 -0500

Start: Nov 28 2008 - 5:30pm

Preview & Prediction: By Evan Dorey

-- Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit his website or blog where he discusses the rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and interesting teams.

Given the season, I’m quite thankful for early-season tournaments, which give us schedules like today, featuring several high-quality match-ups including #16 Mississippi St. (5-0) versus #26 Washington St. (4-0) from the Legends Classic in Newark, NJ.

On paper, this game doesn’t feature the most compelling teams in terms of consensus national rankings, but to me it seems like one of the best early-season ‘bubble’ games there’s been. Looking at both our previews here at CHN and in other sources, the general feeling on both teams is that they were good last year, but have lost so much entering this season that they will end up at or around .500 in conference play, and right on the bubble line. So, whichever team wins here will not only have a leg up over the other in a direct comparison, but also a potential matchup with Pitt that will provide another chance to build a national profile. Given the Pac-10’s poor start to the season, and the SEC West’s lack of a top-tier team, a .500 conference record will put an NCAA bid in real jeopardy, so both teams could really use the win, even in November.

Both teams have mostly stuck to home games against weaker teams, but we can still see some patterns in these results. This looks like it will be a very defensive game, but the defenses will take two very different approaches, as Washington St. plays at a very slow pace, while the Bulldogs tend to run the game much quicker. This is especially true inside, where both teams are in the top 5 nationally in two-point field goal defense. Washington St. has had a slight advantage in this area, since they have taken very few fouls in accruing this record. The Cougars have also been very strong on the defensive glass, an area where Mississippi St.’s record so far is surprisingly poor.

Offensively, both teams are somewhat similar in results, if not in style, fairly three-heavy with good ball movement and solid shooting. They also both struggle with turnovers, and don’t do particularly well at the line. Generally, Mississippi St. is a weak free throw shooting team, while Washington St. tends to get fewer opportunities. If it does come down to threes, Mississippi St. tends to shoot better but somewhat less often, and it will be interesting to see if either team tries to shift a little more of their offensive focus to the perimeter to avoid the strong interior defenses

As mentioned, both teams are also integrating a lot of young players, as Mississippi St. has lost Jamont Gordon, Ben Hansbrough and Charles Rhodes, while Washington St. lost Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver. However, there are definitely some interesting returning players in this game that will be key for their respective team’s seasons.

For the Bulldogs, Jarvis Varnado is an excellent shot blocker and athlete, and enters the game as last week’s SEC Player of the Week. The defending national defensive player of the year faces a new challenge this season, as he faces an expanded role in the offense, and will need to work to prevent his game from regressing under the added pressure. The good news is that this seems like it is going well in the early season, as Varnado has picked up his effort on the boards, recording his longest streak of double-digit rebound games in a row, and in scoring, as he set a new career high in points on Tuesday against St. Bonaventure. His free throw shooting also improved, over a fairly small sample, to adequate, and if he can maintain anything like his early season form into conference play, the Bulldogs will be better than expected.

Washington St.’s perimeter heavy game will depend on good play from senior guard Taylor Rochestie. Rochestie is an excellent shooter, hitting 40% of his threes last season, but is also an excellent point guard, who takes good care of the ball and gets a lot of assists in Tony Bennett’s offense. While Rochestie can’t replace the losses in the backcourt, he can be effective at running the offense, and if Washington St. has it’s typical solid defense, that may be enough for a solid season.

Some other players to watch are center Aron Baynes for Washington St., who will go head to head with Varnado when the Cougars are on the attack, and Barry Stewart, who will take a lot of shots for Mississippi St., though generally with mixed success.

I think that Washington St. will be sound enough defensively to cause Mississippi St. a lot of problems, and given the defensive tilt the game will likely take, that will be enough to give them a narrow win.

Winner: Washington St. Margin: 1-5

SEC Coach Ranking: A New #1?

Jason Brubaker — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:30:33 -0500

With a plethora of talented players no longer in the league (Marreese Speights, Joe Crawford, Chris Lofton, Shan Foster, Richard Hendrix, Anthony Randolph), some new talented players to get excited about (Scotty Hopson, JaMychal Green, Darius Miller), some familiar faces returning to action (Ronald Steele, Tasmin Mitchell) and two fresh faces on the sidelines (Trent Johnson and Darrin Horn), the SEC is going to be mighty interesting this season.

With that in mind, it’s time for our annual ranking of the SEC coaches. There’s a new face at the top, and some other shake-ups along the way. Let the debates begin.

1) Bruce Pearl – Tennessee

4^th year 77-2

Pearl overtakes Billy Donovan for the top spot after locking up a terrific recruiting class, proving that Tennessee basketball is here for the long haul. The Vols have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch in recent years, with their up-tempo offense and scrambling style of play. The Vols were a Sweet 16 team last year, and despite the loss of a great senior class, they could be even better this year. The afore-mentioned Hopson is a top-10 recruit, and potential one-and-done candidate…something the Vols likely wouldn’t have landed a few years ago. In addition to locking up great recruits, Pearl has also integrated transfers Tyler Smith (Iowa) and JP Prince (Arizona) seamlessly into the system, and has created an air of excitement around the program. Simply put - as long as Pearl is on the sidelines, the Vols are going to be a force to reckoned with.

2) Billy Donovan – Florida

13^th year 285-115

Donovan falls from the top spot this year after his Gators crumbled down the stretch last year and failed to make the NCAA Tournament. On the bright side however, Donovan showed that he’s certainly up to the challenge, banishing his team from their practice facility for what he considered to be a lacksadaisical work ethic and poor practice habits. He continues to bring elite talent to Gainesville, and the Gators should return to the NCAA Tournament again this year. Look for some spirited matchups this year between the Gators and Vols as the two best coaches in the league slug it out.

3) Billy Gillispie – Kentucky

2^nd year 18-13

Things got off to a rough start in Gillispie’s first year in Lexington, but by the end of the season, the Cats were embracing his hard-nosed, defensive, grind-it-out personality. Gillispie has upgraded the roster significantly in his second year, and it looks as though the depth problem that plagued the team at times last year is solved. He's brought an undeniable energy back into the program, and, as evidenced by their strong finish to the season despite adversity, it looks as though as UK is preparing to take their place back among college basketball's elite. Furthermore, he has proven to be a relentless recruiter, having locked up a number of top prospects for the next few years. Once he gets his system and his players fully in place, look for him to shoot up this list.

4) Mark Gottfried – Alabama

12^th year 198-123

No excuses this time around for Gottfried, who has the talent on his roster to be in the postseason. Under Gottfried, the Tide have always been talented, but haven't always played well in big games, and missed the tourney last year. Gottfried has shown that he can attract big-time recruits to Tuscaloosa, like Rod Grizzard, Richard Hendrix and JaMychal Green, but the Tide haven't been deep in the tourney since an unexpected Elite Eight run in 2004. The return of senior point guard Ronald Steele should help this year, but Tide fans are notoriously fickle, and another underachieving season with a talented roster isn't going to sit well.

5) Rick Stansbury – Mississippi State

11^th year 207-113

Like Gottfried, Stansbury is a hard coach to peg sometimes. The Bulldogs always seem to have talent, but haven't really turned the corner as a power team in many peoples' eyes. Despite advancing to the second round of the tournament last year, the Bulldogs were somewhat under the national radar. There's no question Stansbury can lure talent to Starkville. The Bulldogs have won consecutive Western Division crowns, and always seemingly have at least one or two players with NBA potential. His team always play tough defense, and will battle hard on every possession. But they need to win some big games in order to garner the national attention they likely deserve. They'll be young this year, but Stansbury has always proven capable of plugging holes in his roster. If the Bulldogs make a move this year, he may finally start getting some more attention.

6) Kevin Stallings – Vanderbilt

10^th year 170-116

As good as anyone at getting the most out of his talent, Stallings continues to march quietly under the radar at Vandy, despite four 20-win seasons. Vandy typically doesn't bring in elite recruits, but they get solid, four-year guys who work well together and play smart, disciplined basketball. Stallings' teams are typically known for their perimeter shooting, solid defense, and mental toughness, rarely losing their poise in tough environments. The only knock on Stallings has been the post-season, where Vandy has struggled in recent years, including a blow-out loss to Siena in the opening round last year. However, it's tough to knock what he's done at a school not exactly rich in basketball tradition.

7) Andy Kennedy – Ole Miss

3^rd year 45-24

Kennedy might be one of the more overlooked coaches in the conference. Very little has been expected of Ole Miss in the last two years, but he's managed to turn them into a solid team that is capable of beating anyone on any given night. Despite a talent shortage, the Rebels under Kennedy have been dangerous, due in part to their quiet confidence and willingness to work - a direct reflection on his personality. He's also done well on the recruiting trail, finding hidden gems like Chris Warren. They struggled down the stretch last year, but there's no doubt Kennedy has this program on the right path. He's a coach who doesn't mind rolling up his sleeves and getting to work, and the team follows that lead. The Rebels are looking to plug a lot of holes up front this year, but as Kennedy has shown, it's never safe to bet against him.

8) Trent Johnson – LSU

1^st year

Johnson enters his first year in Baton Rouge with enough talent to make some noise, and he should provide the discipline the Tigers were lacking last year. Johnson's Stanford teams were always fundamentally sound, and with the talent base he'll have at LSU, it shouldn't be long before he finds some success. Johnson will preach defense to the Tigers, and if he can convince talents like Chris Johnson, Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell to play under control, the Tigers could make a big jump this season. Look for LSU basketball to begin a gradual climb back to the top of the SEC West under Johnson.

9) John Pelphrey – Arkansas

2^nd year 23-12

Pelphrey entered a good situation last year in Fayetteville, inheriting enough talent to win 23 games and advance to the tournament's second round. But to the extent it was good last year, it could very well be bad this year, as the Razorbacks lost six key seniors and standout guard Patrick Beverly from last year. Pelphrey is a solid offensive coach, preferring to push the tempo...a solid selling point to many of the new faces on his roster this year. However, with so much roster turnover, it will be hard to gauge his coaching compared to last year. Pelphrey obviously knows the league well from his time at UK and Florida, but his best coaching probably won't be seen this year with so many young kids. However, if he's able to develop some cohesion with the freshmen, and build some team chemistry, this could be a dangerous team in a couple years. He looks to be a rising star in the profession.

10) Darrin Horn – South Carolina

1^st year

Horn became the darling of the NCAA Tournament last year after leading Western Kentucky to the Sweet 16, Young, energetic and personable, Horn should be a good fit at South Carolina, where the Gamecocks have struggled to find any consistency recently. He brings some fresh air into a program that badly needs it, and his personality should be an immense benefit on the recruiting trails. His last WKU team was an extension of his personality...tough, fiesty and exciting, and all three characteristics will be welcome in Columbia this year. He inherits a roster with some talent, but likely not enough to make postseason plans. However, if he's able to reel in some of the recruits in the South that Dave Odom never could, look for the Gamecocks to be a much better team in the next few seasons.

11) Jeff Lebo – Auburn

5^th year 57-64

Lebo has certainly faced an uphill battle in his time at Auburn between suspensions and injuries, but the Tigers could make a jump this year. While Lebo has yet to put together a winning conference record, the Tigers have always played hard under him. Quite simply, they just haven’t had the talent to knock of the rest of the SEC teams consistently. The Tigers have lacked the star power needed to generate excitement, and with the football team in turmoil this year, Tiger fans will be looking for some sign of improvement. Getting forward Korvotney Barber back this year should be a tremendous help, and if the newcomers can provide some backcourt fireworks, the Tigers could climb out of the basement in the SEC West. If Lebo’s team falls short in the conference again, he could find his seat getting very hot.

12) Dennis Felton – Georgia

5^th year 58-63

A run through the SEC Tournament last year likely saved his job, but Felton shouldn’t count on that again. Felton's teams at UGA have always been tough, and rarely get blown out, but they just simply haven't been as talented as their competition. The Bulldogs always seem to be one or two players away from being a serious threat in the East, and this year appears to be no different. His team will compete, and they'll battle teams defensively for the full 40 minutes, but they're likely to be offensively-challenged once again, and another season near the bottom of the SEC is a possibility. Felton needs to be able to tap into the rich recruiting pipelines around the state to make the Bulldogs a player in the SEC…something he has yet to do.

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