New Mexico

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Non-BCS Top 25: New Mexico New #1, Charlotte Enters

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 18:35:32 -0800

The Non-BCS Top 25 is a CollegeHoops.net original, copied by multiple major outlets. As a weekly companion to our popular CHN Top 50 ranking, it takes an in-depth look into the underrated universe of teams outside of the big six. The original Non-BCS ranking.

Non-BCS Top 25: December 9th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	New Mexico	10-0	3
2	Gonzaga	9-1*	1
3	Creighton	9-1	2
4	San Diego St	7-1	4
5	UNLV	7-1	5
6	Wichita St	9-0	6
7	Murray St	7-1	7
8	Memphis	6-2	9
9	Wyoming	10-0	12
10	Bucknell	8-1	14
11	Temple	6-1*	10
12	St. Joseph's	5-2	15
13	VCU	6-3	16
14	Butler	7-2	19
15	Xavier	7-2*	13
16	Belmont	6-2	18
17	Ohio	7-2*	11
18	Colorado St	6-2**	8

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last
19	St. Mary's	6-2	20
20	Boise St	6-2*	17
21	Santa Clara	6-2	21
22	Saint Louis	5-3	22
23	Charlotte	9-0	NA(+5)
24	Dayton	7-2	25
25	Akron	4-2	24

last = last week's ranking

* = Losses this week

Next 5: UIC (8-1), SMU (8-1), Utah St (5-1), Illinois St (6-3*), MTSU (7-2)

Further 5: Southern Miss (6-3**), Louisiana Tech (8-2*), Davidson (5-4*), George Mason (6-4*), CS Northridge (7-3*)

Out of Top 25: Southern Miss (6-3**)

Non-BCS Top 25: New Mexico Jumps to 3rd

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 25 Nov 2012 20:16:33 -0800

Non-BCS Top 25: November 25th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Creighton	6-0	1
2	Gonzaga	6-0	2
3	New Mexico	6-0	7
4	San Diego St	4-1	5
5	UNLV	3-1*	4
6	Ohio	5-0	8
7	Murray St	4-1	9
8	Wichita St	6-0	14
9	Memphis	3-2**	3
10	Santa Clara	5-0	15
11	Colorado St	4-0	13
12	St. Joseph's	3-1	10
13	Temple	3-0	17
14	Xavier	5-1*	22
15	Saint Louis	3-2*	16
16	Belmont	5-1*	18

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last
17	Butler	3-2*	21
18	VCU	3-3**	19
19	Bucknell	5-1*	20
20	St. Mary's	4-2**	6
21	Southern Miss	5-0	NA(+10)
22	Dayton	4-1	NA(+5)
23	CS-Northridge	6-1*	23
24	Akron	3-2	24
25	Illinois St	5-1*	25

last = last week's ranking

* = Losses this week

Next 5: BYU (4-2), Davidson (3-3*), Utah St (3-1), Valparaiso (5-1), Wyoming (6-0)

Further 5: Loyola (5-1), SMU (6-1*), George Mason (4-2), Charlotte (6-0), UIC (4-1)

Out: Northern Iowa (3-3***), South Alabama (2-3***)

Agree/Disagree? Post your thoughts below or join us @collegehoopsnet

Check out last week's Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Louisville vs New Mexico: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 14:12:25 -0700

(4) Louisville vs. (5) New Mexico: West Region

Records

Louisville 27-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

New Mexico 28-6, 10-4 MWC (Regular-season and conference tournament champions)

Time: 9:40 p.m. Saturday

TV: TBS

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.

First round results

Louisville def. Davidson 69-62

New Mexico def. Long Beach State 75-68

Winner will face: (1) Michigan State, (8) Memphis, (9) Saint Louis or (16) Long Island, Thursday in Phoenix

Rankings

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

New Mexico No. 21 AP; No. 22 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Louisville 10

New Mexico 29

Line: Louisville -2 (O/U 128)

Players to Watch

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 49.4% FG). Siva’s one of the best points guards in the country when he’s not scoring. When he puts up 17 points, like he did in the win over Davidson, U of L is one of the best teams in the country. He made seven of his 12 shots and had six assists and a pair of steals Thursday’s triumph.

New Mexico: F Drew Gordon, 6-9 Sr. (13.4, 10.9 rpg, 53.7% FG); G Kendall Williams, 6-3 So. (12 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 spg); G/F Tony Snell, 6-7 So. (11 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg).

Why Each Team Dangerous

Louisville: It seems like teams just miss shots against the Cardinals, but at some point, you have to figure Rick Pitino’s and the Cardinals’ gameplan is taking opponents out of their games. Louisville held hot-shooting Davidson to 21-of-60 overall and 4-of-19 from the 3-point line Thursday. It’s the third straight games and the fourth time in their last five that the Cardinals have held their opponents under 40 percent. For the season, opponents manage to shoot 37.9 percent from the floor and 30.5 from deep. They also average nine steals per game, which is seventh-best in the country.

New Mexico: The Lobos are on fire. They have won six straight and 13 of their last five. During the current winning streak, UNM has won by an average of 13.5 points per game. It has shot 46 percent or better from the field in five of its last six games and held opponents to 43 percent or less in five of its last six outings. New Mexico can beat you with its offense or its defense. It shoots 46.3 percent from the field, averages 73.2 points per game and forces 14.3 turnovers per game. The Lobos also out-rebound their opponents by 6.7 per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Louisville: As good as Louisville’s defense is, its offense is nearly as bad. Even in a 7-point win over the Wildcats, it shot just 21-of-52 from the floor and 1-of-5 from the 3-point line. Louisville has shot better than 40 percent from the floor just once in the last the last nine games and 44 percent or worse in 12 of its last 13 outings. The Cardinals are an average rebounding team with a plus-2 margin for the season, and their 14.5 turnovers per game will be a big concern against the Lobos.

New Mexico: The bottom line is New Mexico had to battle to beat a 12 seed without one of its best players, and the Mountain West Conference, in which the Lobos have compiled those impressive numbers, has not looked good in the tournament. UNM was out-rebounded and gave up 14 offensive boards to Long Beach and the Lobos turned the ball over 14 times. Those numbers have to be concerning heading into a game against Louisville.

The Bottom Line: New Mexico’s big wins over UNLV and San Diego State don’t look so impressive now. I like the way the Lobos are playing, but I’m starting to really believe in Pitino even though his team is nearly unwatchable.

The Pick: Louisville 66, New Mexico 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

New Mexico vs Long Beach St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 21:08:14 -0700

(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach St: West Region

Records

New Mexico 27-6, 10-4 MWC (Regular-season and Conference Tourney Champions)

Long Beach State 25-8, 15-1 Big West (Regular-season and Conference Tourney Champions)

Time: 4:10 p.m. Thursday

TV: TBS

Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Winner will face: (4) Louisville or (13) Davidson, Saturday

Rankings

New Mexico No. 21 AP; No. 22 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Long Beach State No. 35 AP; No. 34 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

New Mexico 29

Long Beach State 35

Line: New Mexico -4 (O/U 134)

Player to Watch

New Mexico: F Drew Gordon, 6-9 Sr. (13.4 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 53.7% FG); G Tony Snell, 6-7 So. (12 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.3 rpg); G Kendall Williams, 6-3 So. (12 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 spg). Snell played below expectations this season, but he had an outstanding MWC Tournament. He had 15 points, six rebounds and six assists in a semifinal win over UNLV, then went 5-for-7 with 14 points in the championship game win over San Diego State.

Long Beach State: G Casper Ware, 5-10 Sr. (17.4 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.4 spg); G Larry Anderson, 6-5 Sr. (14 ppg, 5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.9 spg); F T.J. Robinson, 6-8 Sr. (12 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 53% FG). Ware – the 2-time Big West Player of the Year – scored 33 points, had six assists and three rebounds during Long Beach’s 77-64 Big Sky championship game win over UC-Santa Barbara Saturday. Ware scored 77 points during the three games of the league tourney.

Why Each Team is Dangerous

New Mexico: No team is as hot as any team in the country. The Lobos have won five straight and went 12-2 since Jan. 25, including a pair of wins over San Diego State and UNLV each. UNM can score in the open court or in the half-court and displayed the most efficient offense in the MWC and one of the best in the country. Gordon, Williams and Snell are all effective scorers and all can facilitate. Solid depth will also help the Lobos if they get into a long tourney run.

Long Beach State: Ware, Anderson and Robinson are almost as good as any trio in the nation and they’re making their first NCAA Appearance. The 49ers have seven players who are capable of putting the ball in the basket and LBSU shot 46.9 percent from the field this season. The Niners get to the foul line often and they play strong, opportune defense. The 49ers played the nation’s best non-conference schedule, so they won’t be afraid of anyone.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

New Mexico: There’s not a lot New Mexico doesn’t do well – or at least nominally well. The one problem has been consistency. A home loss to New Mexico State, a neutral-court loss to 8-22 Santa Clara and big road losses at Colorado State and TCU are concerns. In those losses, the Lobo defense was poor and foul trouble caused them problems.

Long Beach State: The 49ers really rely on their senior trio of Ware, Anderson and Robinson. Anderson missed the Big West Tournament with a sprained knee. If the conference Defensive Player of the Year is unable to go Thursday, LBSU has almost no chance to win this game. Shot selection can be a concern with Long Beach, particularly with Ware. Long Beach is average on the boards and allowed opponents to hit one-third of their 3-point shots.

The Bottom Line: It’s a shame these teams have to play each other in the first round. Both teams are capable of deep tournament runs. But you have to love the way New Mexico is playing. They’ve shown toughness that it lacked early in the season.

The Pick: New Mexico 79, Long Beach State 72

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

Tournament Poll: Most Likely 12 vs 5 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:20:04 -0700

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0800

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.

Bracketology Update: The Dreaded 8 and 9 Seeds

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 11:46:26 -0800

While getting an 8 or 9 seed as compared to a 10 or 11 seems like an accomplishment, its actually a kiss of death. #1 seeds are usually head and shoulders above the rest of the field, and 8-9 winners get stuck playing them in the 2nd round.

In my latest Bracketology projection, the following 8 teams are the unfortunate 8-9 seeds. For each team, I answer the following two questions: How can they earn 6 or 7 seeds? How can they drop to 10 or 11 seeds?

Alabama (20-10, 9-7, #32 RPI)

How can they rise? A win over South Carolina would not help Alabama's stature, so they can only rise if they then go on to beat Florida in the next round.

How can they fall? While the South Carolina game won't help Alabama's cause, it could certainly hurt it. Bama hasn't beaten a Top 50 team since November and their locker room is far from settled. A drop to a 10 seed is not out of the question with a loss.

Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6, #69 RPI)

How can they rise? Cincy just tipped off against Georgetown, which would certainly be a resume boosting win. But considering their low RPI and weak schedule, I don't think this one win would push them into a 7 seed. However, if they won and then beat Syracuse tomorrow, it would change everything.

How can they fall? As I just mentioned, Cincy's overall resume is far from sparkling. A loss could conceivably drop them into a 10 seed, but no lower than that.

Iowa St (22-9, 12-6, #31 RPI)

How can they rise? Now that Iowa St has garnered Top 25 respect and their RPI is creeping up towards the 20's, they have a good shot to move into a 6 or 7 seed with a win over Texas tonight. Even if they lost, there's a chance they could rise into the 7's depending on how other teams fare this week.

How can they fall? Even if Iowa St lost tonight, their solid conference success should ensure that they wouldn't drop below a 9 seed at worst.

Kansas St (21-10, 10-8, #43 RPI)

How can they rise? After losing to Baylor today, Kansas St's season is over, so there's nowhere to go but down.

How can they fall? Although a loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals is not terribly impressive, Kansas St is probably locked into this range. Losing to a Top 15 team in Baylor doesn't really hurt their resume, and the Wildcats RPI shouldn't drop by much.

New Mexico (23-6, 10-4, #34 RPI)

How can they rise? Beating Air Force tonight wouldn't help, so they'd need to go on and beat UNLV or Wyoming in the next round.

How can they fall? Considering New Mexico has been a fringe Top 25 team with a couple of marquee wins and a solid RPI, they won't fall below a 9 seed.

Purdue (20-11, 10-8, #44 RPI)

How can they rise? Purdue, the 6 seed in the Big Ten, faces #11 Nebraska tonight. To move up, Purdue would need to win this game and then also beat Ohio St tomorrow.

How can they fall? Although Purdue has a very solid resume, nothing really wows you. If they lost to Nebraska, a top 10 seed isn't out of the question though nothing much beyond that.

Saint Louis (23-6, 12-4, #30 RPI)

How can they rise? Saint Louis faces a very solid La Salle squad in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. With a win and help, SLU could easily earn a 7 seed.

How can they fall? Unless teams like Mississippi St, Cal, or Northwestern go on epic runs, its hard to see SLU falling below the 8-9 range even if they lost to La Salle.

Virginia (22-8, 9-7, #42 RPI)

How can they rise? Virginia awaits the winner of NC State/Boston College. Considering Virginia's best win in two months is over NC State, I'm not sure how much beating them again would help. Of course, if Virginia somehow made their way to the ACC finals, that would help.

How can they fall? Considering Vrginia hasn't won a Top 100 game since January, it wouldn't take much for them to fall. In fact, if they lost to NC State/BC tomorrow, an 11 seed would not be out of the question.