Game Predictions

Kentucky vs Kansas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 09:53:39 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) Kansas: National Championship

Records

Kentucky 37-2, 16-0 SEC

Kansas 32-6, 16-2 Big 12

Time: 9:23 p.m. Monday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70; def. Louisville, 69-61

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60; def. North Carolina State, 60-57; def. North Carolina, 80-67; def. Ohio State, 64-62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Kansas 5

Regular-season results

Nov. 15 – Kentucky def. Kansas, 75-65

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 139½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 50.1% FG); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.6 ppg, 47.1% 3s); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (10 ppg, 4.8 apg); G/F Darius Miller, 6-8 Sr. (10 ppg, 2.2 apg, 37.8% 3s); F Kyle Wiltjer, 6-9 Fr. (5.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 43% 3s).

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 51.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.5 bpg); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg); G Travis Releford, 6-6 Jr. (8.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50% FG); G Conner Teahan, 6-6 Sr. (5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34% 3s); F Kevin Young, 6-8 Jr. (3.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 49% FG).

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: The Wildcats are extraordinarily balanced with six players averaging double figures. Even when Kidd-Gilchrist and Jones struggled in Saturday’s win over Louisville, others stepped up. Miller scored 13 off the bench, Wiltjer hit two big buckets and Teague had eight points and five assists. Kentucky shot 57 percent in the victory. For the season, UK shoots 47 percent from the floor. Kentucky plays very good defense in the paint, averaging 8.5 blocks per game, which leads the country. Their transition offense is as good as anyone’s in the nation.

Kansas: Robinson is as good and plays as hard as any player in the country. He’s capable of controlling the paint, even against a frontcourt as good as Kentucky’s. Taylor is a good floor leader and is strong scoring threat. Along with Robinson, Withey provides great interior defense and if Johnson is hot, the Jayhawks are really tough to handle. Kansas held Ohio State to 20-of-59 from the field and 8-of-22 from the 3-point line in Saturday’s win and out-rebounded the Buckeyes 41-30, including 12 offensive boards. KU has trailed in every game of the tournament and has shown great resilience. It’s probably time to just crown Bill Self the best coach in college basketball. The job he’s done this season has been remarkable and he’ll have the Jayhawks ready to play on Monday.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: There isn’t much the Wildcats do poorly. They are slightly above average in their half-court offense and their transition defense. They were out-rebounded by Louisville, 37-32, and gave up 16 offensive boards and that has been a sore spot at times. Robinson could give them fits in the offensive glass. Kentucky doesn’t force a lot of turnovers typically and gets a steal on only 9.2 percent of opponents’ possessions. UK would likely have the youngest starting lineup ever to win a national title, but immaturity hasn’t been a problem to this point.

Kansas: This is the least talented Kansas team in a decade, making its run truly remarkable. Robinson and Taylor score about 46.4 percent of the team’s points, so there’s not a lot of balance and almost no depth. Talent- and skill-wise, Kansas will be outmatched by the Wildcats. The Jayhawks are not a great shooting team, making just 34.5 percent of their 3-point attempts and they score just 23.2 percent of their points from behind the arc. They shoot just 69.2 percent from the foul line, although they hit some clutch ones against OSU. At times, KU is turnover prone, but that’s gotten better.

The Bottom Line: It’s been a great college basketball season. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to end with a bang. Kentucky will stretch its lead throughout the game and win by double-figures.

The Pick: Kentucky 71, Kansas 60

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 208-162-6

Kentucky vs Louisville: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:47:34 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

Records

Kentucky 36-2, 16-0 SEC

Louisville 30-9, 10-8 Big East

Time: 6:09 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (2) Kansas, Monday in National Championship

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico 59-56; def. Michigan State, 57-44; def. Florida, 72-68

Regular-season Meeting

Dec. 31 – At Kentucky 69, Louisville 62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Louisville 9

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 137)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg). Kidd-Gilchrist saved his best for the most important time of the year. In two regional games in Atlanta, MKG had 43 points and 15 rebounds in a pair of wins over Indiana and Baylor.

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.7 apg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 51.3% FG). Behanan has been a beast on the boards in the tournament. In four games, he has 31 rebounds to go along with 56 points, four steals, three assists and three blocks.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: In their regular-season win over Louisville, the Wildcats out-rebounded the Cardinals 49-28, including 14 offensive rebounds. Kentucky will have a significant advantage inside with Davis, Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist, who had 24 points and 19 rebounds last time out against the Cardinals. For the season, UK out-rebounds opponents by 7.1 per game. The Cats also lead the country with 8.6 blocks per game. Few teams – if any – are as good in transition and Kentucky’s half-court offense has improved as the season has progressed. Defensively, UK allows opponents to shoot just 37.5 percent from the floor and 31.5 percent from the 3-point line.

Louisville: The Cardinals win with defense. Opponents have shot just 80-of-214 (37.4 percent) overall and 22-of-83 (26.5 percent) from behind the 3-point arc against Louisville in the tournament and it has forced 52 turnovers, including 21 steals. The Cards held Kentucky to 17-of-57 the first time around and forced 20 turnovers and got 12 steals. U of L’s offense is balanced with six players averaging at least 9.1 points. It shot 45 percent from the floor and 37.5 percent from 3 in Saturday’s win over Florida.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: In the win over Louisville, the Cats shot just 29.8 percent from the floor and made just 3-of-16 3s. They’ll have to be better than that this time. Kentucky got to the foul line 43 times in that game. However, opponents shot more free throws than the Wildcats did this season. At times, Kentucky has been prone to turnovers and Louisville forces a ton. Depth could be an issue, particularly if they get into foul trouble.

Louisville: The Cardinals sometimes struggle to score. Even in tournament wins over New Mexico and Michigan State, Louisville managed just 116 combined points and shot 43-of-103 combined. The Cardinals are just plus-1.6 in the rebounding category for the season. That could be deadly against Kentucky. Louisville also turns the ball over 14.1 times per game.

The Bottom Line: Pitino has seen Kentucky once and he has had a week to prepare for the Wildcats. He’ll find a way to slow them down. Enough for his Cardinals to pull off the upset? Probably not. But his gameplan should be enough to keep them close.

The Pick: Kentucky 73, Louisville 66

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 207-161-6

Ohio St vs Kansas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:43:24 -0400

(2) Ohio State vs. (2) Kansas

Records

Kansas 31-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Ohio State 31-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season Conference 3-way Champions; At large)

Time: 8:49 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (4) Louisville, Monday in National Championship

Tournament Results

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60; def. N.C. State, 60-57; def. North Carolina, 80-67

Ohio State def. Loyola (Md.), 78-59; def. Gonzaga, 73-66; def. Cincinnati, 81-66; def. Syracuse, 77-70

Regular-season Meeting

Dec. 10 – At Kansas 78, Ohio State 67

Rankings

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Ohio State No. 7 AP; No. 7 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kansas 6

Ohio State 5

Line: Ohio State -2½ (O/U 137)

Players to Watch

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 51.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg). Taylor came up big against North Carolina with a trip to the Final 4 on the line. After struggling through the first three rounds of the tourney, Taylor was 10-for-19 from the field with 22 points, six rebounds, five assists and five steals.

Ohio State: F Jared Sullinger, 6-9 So. (17.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 53.1% FG); F Deshaun Thomas, 6-7 So. (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 53% FG); G William Buford, 6-6 Sr. (14.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 35.1% 3s). Buford hasn’t shot well during the tournament, but Saturday’s win over Syracuse, the senior contributed with 13 points, nine rebounds and a pair of assists.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kansas: Robinson is a National Player of the Year candidate. He has 16 double-doubles for the season and should have a big game against the Buckeyes. Defensively, Robinson and C Jeff Withey defend the paint as well as any pair in the country. Kansas blocks 5.6 shots per game as a team. Opponents have shot just 77-for-224 (34.4 percent) against Kansas in the tournament. Offensively, the Jayhawks are shooting 47.6 percent for the season, 22^nd nationally. Kansas is a solid rebounding team with a plus-5.6 margin for the season.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are as good offensively around the basket as any team in the country. Sullinger and Thomas are strong and creative with the ball. For the season, Ohio State is shooting 48 percent from the floor. The Buckeyes’ 55.7 rebound percentage is sixth nationally and their 75.2 percent defensive rebound percentage is second. They own a plus-7.7 rebounding margin and a plus-3 turnover margin and a 1.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Ohio State has gotten to the foul line 803 times. OSU forced 18 turnovers in December’s loss to Kansas.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kansas: Until scoring 80 points in the win over Carolina, the Jayhawks were averaging just 62.5 points and shot just 40.6 percent from the floor in the three victories. Kansas has almost no frontcourt depth, which could be a concern against the active Buckeyes. For the season, KU turns the ball over 13 times per game.

Ohio State: Although Buford, Thomas and Aaron Craft are capable perimeter shooters, OSU is not a great 3-point shooting team. They are shooting just 33.3 percent from behind the arc and score just 20.1 percent of their points from deep. The Buckeyes also allowed opponents to make over six 3s per game. Despite decent size, Ohio State is not great in the paint defensively.

The Bottom Line: Robinson will be a handful, but the Buckeyes will pull away for a comfortable win.

The Pick: Ohio State 71, Kansas 62

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 207-161-6

Kansas vs North Carolina: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 11:52:29 -0400

(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Kansas: Midwest Region

Records

North Carolina 32-5, 14-2 ACC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Kansas 30-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Time: 5:05 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis

Winner will face: (1) Syracuse or (2) Ohio State, Saturday in New Orleans

Tournament Results

North Carolina def. Vermont, 77-58; def. Creighton, 87-73; def. Ohio, 73-65 (OT)

Kansas def. Detroit 65-50; def. Purdue 63-60; def. N.C. State, 60-57

Rankings

North Carolina No. 4 AP; No. 5 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

North Carolina 4

Kansas 6

Line: Kansas -2 (O/U 143½)

Players to Watch

North Carolina: F Tyler Zeller, 7-0 Sr. (16.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 55.2% FG); F John Henson, 6-11 Jr. (13.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3 bpg); G Stilman White, 6-0 Fr. (4.3 mpg, 0.7 ppg, 0.6 apg). White certainly isn’t Kendall Marshall, but the freshman wasn’t bad in his first start of the season in Friday’s overtime win over Ohio with a season-high six assists against zero turnovers.

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 52.1% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.9 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.2 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.3 bpg). After subpar games in the Jayhawks’ first two tournament wins, Withey was big in Kansas’s victory over N.C. State on Friday with eight points, five rebounds, a steal, an assist and 10 big blocked shots.

Why Each Team Dangerous

North Carolina: The Tar Heels dominated the paint Friday, no different than they have the entire season. UNC out-rebounded Ohio 56-26, including 17 offensive boards, blocked eight shots and held the Bobcats to 23-of-71 shooting. For the season, Carolina out-rebounds opponents by 10.9 boards per game, blocks 5.8 shots per contest and opponents manage only 39.2 percent from the floor against the Tar Heels. UNC is deep up front and on the wings, especially compared to the Jayhawks.

Kansas: The Jayhawk defense was excellent against N.C. State. The Wolfpack managed just 19-for-67 from the floor, 6-of-21 from the 3-point line and Kansas forced 14 turnovers and got nine steals and 11 blocked shots. It was perhaps its best defensive performance of the season. Of course, Kansas is also a capable offensive team. For the year, Kansas ranks 21^st in the nation in field goal percentage (47.6) and averages 74 points per game. The Jayhawks have a plus-5.6 rebounding margin and a 1.16-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

North Carolina: The Tar Heels clearly weren’t the same without Marshall. They turned the ball over 24 times against 18 assists. For the season, Carolina turned the ball over just 12 times per game, had a plus-1.5 turnover margin and a 1.44-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but that was with Marshall. If Marshall can’t go Sunday – and coach Roy Williams said he won’t – the Tar Heels will have to be much more careful with the basketball against Kansas. They’ll also have to hit perimeter shots. They went just 7-for-22 against Ohio and shoot just 34.1 from behind the arc this season.

Kansas: Although the KU offense has been good all year, it struggled Friday, shooting 37.5 percent from the field and hitting one of its 14 3-point shots. Taylor struggled, in particular, going 2-for-14 overall and 0-for-6 from deep. It has struggled from behind the arc all season, shooting just 34.6 percent, while allowing opponents to shoot 34.3 percent from deep. The Jayhawks were also out-rebounded 43-42 by the Wolfpack and have been prone to giving up offensive rebounds all season. Frontcourt depth is also an issue. Against the big UNC front line, foul trouble may be a concern.

The Bottom Line: If Marshall plays and is himself, Carolina wins going away. If he doesn’t, this one goes down to the wire.

The Pick: North Carolina 77, Kansas 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 215-171-6 (Through Regional Semis)

Kentucky vs Baylor: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 11:50:29 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor: South Region

Records

Kentucky 35-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Baylor 30-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Time: 2:20 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (4) Louisville or (7) Florida, Saturday in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90

Baylor def. South Dakota State, 68-60; def. Colorado, 80-63; def. Xavier 75-70

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 2

Baylor 9

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 147)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (11.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.1 spg); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.4 ppg, 1.5 apg, 47% 3s). Lamb’s perimeter game has been a key to the Wildcats’ tremendous season. On Friday, Lamb went 6-for-10 from the field, hit his only 3-point shot and all eight of his free throws for 21 big points to help UK advance past rival Indiana.

Baylor: F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.8 spg); F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.4% FG). Acy was a monster in Friday’s win over Xavier. After scoring 11 points in the Bears’ first two NCAA games, the senior went for 20 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal in the triumph.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: On top of having the nation’s best interior defense and transition offense, Kentucky showed it can shoot the basketball in Friday’s win. A relative weakness early in the season, the Wildcats ran their half-court offense efficiently, hitting half of their 3-point shots (5-of-10) and 94.6 percent of their free throws (35-of-37). There’s not much this team doesn’t do well.

Baylor: The Bears are one of two teams in the tournament – along with North Carolina – that can stack up with Kentucky’s size and skill. When at its best, Baylor is as deep in talent as any team in the country. The Bears also shoot well. On Friday, they shot 50.9 percent from the field and made 12-of-14 free throws. For the season, they are shooting 47 percent from the floor, 38.5 percent from behind the 3-point line and 75.1 percent at the free throw line. All three rank in the top 32 in the country. Baylor out-rebounds its opponents by 5.4 boards per game. Defensively, the Bears force 14.2 errors and get 7.6 steals per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: The Wildcats make only 6 3-pointers per game, so if they fall behind, they could struggle to shoot themselves back into a game. Kentucky forces just 11.6 turnovers per game and, at times, it has had trouble with turnovers in the past, although it had just six against Indiana. The Wildcats aren’t very deep. Only one Wildcat played more than six minutes off the Kentucky bench on Friday. Against a big, physical Baylor squad, foul trouble could be an issue for the Cats.

Baylor: The Bears are prone lapses, sometimes in short spurts and sometimes game-long. They are also prone to turnovers, coughing up the ball 13.8 times per game. Baylor has allowed opponents to get to the foul line 638 times and on Friday Xavier shot 24 against them while Kentucky got to the stripe 37 times against Indiana. Baylor’s interior defense sometimes lacks aggression. On Friday, Musketeer center Kenny Frease was 7-for-10 from the field for 18 points. Frease is no Anthony Davis.

The Bottom Line: After Kentucky’s performance on Friday, I don’t have the guts to pick an upset. But the Wildcats are going to get Baylor’s best shot. The Bears will go on some runs and will push the Wildcats. This should be one of the best games of the tournament so far.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Baylor 77

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 215-171-6 (Through Regional Semis)

Syracuse vs Ohio St: Elite Eight

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:14:40 -0400

(1) Syracuse vs. (2) Ohio State: East Region

Records

Syracuse 34-2, 17-1 Big East (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Ohio State 30-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Time: 7:05 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: TD Garden in Boston

Winner will face: (1) North Carolina, (2) Kansas, (11) N.C. State or (13) Ohio, Sunday

Tournament Results

Syracuse def. UNC-Asheville, 72-65; def. Kansas State, 75-59; def. Wisconsin, 64-63

Ohio State def. Loyola (Md.), 78-69; def. Gonzaga, 73-66; def. Cincinnati, 81-66

Rankings

Syracuse No. 2 AP; No. 2 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Ohio State No. 7 AP; No. 7 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Syracuse 1

Ohio State 5

Line: Ohio State -3 (O/U 141½)

Players to Watch

Syracuse: F Kris Joseph, 6-7 Sr. (13.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 spg); G Scoop Jardine, 6-2 Sr. (8.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.4 spg); F C.J. Fair, 6-8 So. (8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 spg). Fair had arguably his best game of the season when the Orange needed him the most. He put up 15 points – on 7-of-9 shooting – seven rebounds and had four steals in Thursday’s 1-point win over Wisconsin.

Ohio State: F Jared Sullinger, 6-9 So. (17.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 53% FG); F Deshaun Thomas, 6-7 So. (16.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 53.4% FG); G Aaron Craft, 6-2 So. (8.9 ppg, 4.7 apg, 3.3 rpg). Craft made only two of his seven shots Thursday, but he finished with 11 points, six steals, five assists, four rebounds and hit a big shot to help Ohio State regain momentum midway through the second half against rival Cincinnati.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Syracuse: No team has deeper talent than the Orange, as Fair, Dion Waiters and James Southerland have proven throughout the tournament. Syracuse shot 55 percent from the floor against Wisconsin, which has one of the best defenses in the country. It also hit five of its nine 3s. The Orange have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, shooting 47 percent from the field and 35 percent from behind the 3-point line. Defensively, they hold opponents to 38.5 percent from the floor and 31.5 from deep. They also force 16.1 turnovers and get 9.2 steals per contest.

Ohio State: Sullinger and Thomas were incredible in Thursday’s win over Cincinnati, combined for 49 points and 18 rebounds, including a combined 30 first-half points. They’ll be a handful for Syracuse. The Buckeyes forced 18 turnovers and out-rebounded the Bearcats 33-26. For the year, OSU is shooting 48.2 percent from the floor and out-rebounded opponents by 7.6 per game. The Buckeyes’ have a 3.1 turnover ratio and their 1.26-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 19^th nationally.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Syracuse: With Fab Melo’s absence, Syracuse has almost no inside presence. His replacements, Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita, combined for four points and six rebounds against Wisconsin. For the season, the Orange were out-rebounded by 1.4 per game. Those could be big factors against Sullinger and Thomas. The Badgers hit 14-of-27 from the 3-point line Thursday and Cuse had just five assists on 27 field goals in the win.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are not a good perimeter shooting team. They hit just 33 percent of their 3-pointers, although they were 8-for-17 on Thursday. Ohio State has almost no depth. Only one Buckeye played more than two minutes off the bench Thursday. Against Syracuse’s solid depth, that could be a big concern. Although Sullinger is a great offensive player, OSU doesn’t have much of a defensive presence in the paint.

The Bottom Line: Despite conventional wisdom, this game is a toss-up. It really could go either way. So I’ll take the points and the under.

The Pick: Ohio State 68, Syracuse 66

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-168-6

Louisville vs Florida: Elite Eight

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 18:09:21 -0400

(4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida: West Region

Records

Louisville 29-9, 10-8 Big East (Conference Tournament Champions)

Florida 26-10, 10-6 SEC (At large)

Time: 4:30 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky, (3) Baylor, (4) Indiana or (10) Xavier, March 31 in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico, 59-56; def. Michigan State 57-44

Florida def. Virginia, 71-45; def. Norfolk State, 84-50; def. Marquette 68-58

Rankings

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Florida No. 25 AP; No. 21 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Louisville 9

Florida 15

Line: Florida -1½ (O/U 131)

Players to Watch

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.8 spg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 50.6% FG). Like Siva, Dieng is effective even when he’s not scoring. Despite just five points, the sophomore had a huge impact on Thursday’s win over top-seeded Michigan State with nine boards, seven blocks and three steals.

Florida: G Bradley Beal, 6-3 Fr. (14.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 spg); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (16 ppg, 2.6 apg, 41.1% 3s); C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 61.6% FG). Beal has played his best basketball in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and almost two steals in the Gators’ three games.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Louisville: The Cardinals’ defense has been unmatched in the tournament. Teams are scoring just 54 points per game, and are shooting just 34.7 percent from the floor and are 14-of-52 from the 3-point line (26.9 percent) in three tournament games. Top-seed Michigan State managed to shoot 28.6 percent overall and 23.8 from deep. U of L’s defense also has 16 steals in the tourney. The Louisville offense is balanced with five different players averaging at least 9.1 points per game. Against the Spartans, seven players scored at least four points and the Cardinals’ bench outscored MSU’s 17-4. The Cards out-rebounded a very good rebounding Michigan State team 34-32.

Florida: The Gators have to be a confident bunch after out-scoring their three NCAA Tournament opponents 223-153. The first two games could be chalked up to good matchups, but the win 10-point win over 3-seed Marquette was impressive. The Gators won unconventionally. They hit just seven of their 27 3s, but they held the Eagles to 20-of-65 from the field and 6-of-21 from the 3-point line. They out-rebounded Marquette 39-34 and blocked nine shots. For the season, Florida is shooting 38 percent from deep, they’ve made more 3-pointers (349) than any team in the country and almost every Gator is capable of hitting shots from the outside. Their 1.35-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 11^th in the country and they have five regulars who shoot 76 percent or better from the charity stripe.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Louisville: While the Louisville defense has been great, its offense still struggles to put up points. It has managed to just better than 40.4 percent just once in the tournament and has been over 50 percent just once in the last 17 games. They made just 21-of-55 overall against Michigan State. Louisville turns the ball over 14.3 times per game and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. For the season, the Cardinals shoot just 42.4 percent from the field and 31.6 from behind the 3-point arc.

Florida: Despite Thursday’s effort, Florida is not a great defensive team. They are allowing 64.8 points per game, 42.3 percent shooting and 34.1 from the 3-point line. They have just a 2.8 rebounding margin for the season. Florida is a decent perimeter defensive team, but besides Young, has little paint presence. With the injury to Will Yeguete, the Gator bench is very thin, especially in the frontcourt.

The Bottom Line: Louisville’s perimeter defense will shut down the Gators and send the Cardinals to the Final 4.

The Pick: Louisville 63, Florida 56

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-168-6

Kentucky vs Indiana: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:35:22 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana: South Region

Records

Kentucky 34-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Indiana 27-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (3) Baylor or (10) Xavier, Sunday

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State 87-71

Indiana def. New Mexico State 79-66; def. VCU 63-61

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 3

Indiana 11

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 146½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 ppg, 4.6 bpg); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.8 bpg); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (9.9 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2 spg). Teague’s continued improvement has made the Wildcats the unquestioned NCAA Tournament favorites. In Saturday’s win over Iowa State, the freshman PG had perhaps his best performance at UK with 24 points (on 10-of-14 shooting), seven assists, four rebounds and a steal.

Indiana: C Tyler Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (16.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2 spg, 60.2% FG); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (12.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 44.5% 3s); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 Sr. (10.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2 apg). While Zeller and Will Sheehey were the heroes in Saturday’s win over VCU, Oladipo’s all-around play was crucial. He put up nine points (on 4-of-5 from the field), six assists, five rebounds, a steal and a block.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: UK does a lot well. You know about the Wildcats’ size, their athleticism, their defense and their transition game. The big thing about this game, however, is how badly they’re going to want it. Do you think the Wildcats salivated as soon as they saw Indiana in their region when the brackets were announced? Do you think they remember the IU fans storming the court after Watford’s last-second shot on Dec. 10? Terrence Jones, in particular, will be out to have a big day after a 4-point, 1-rebound performance against the Hoosiers the first time around.

Indiana: The Hoosiers know they can beat Kentucky. One of the best shooting teams in the country, Indiana hit 9-of-15 from behind the arc in December’s win over Kentucky. They also out-rebounded the bigger Cats 28-26 and got 12 offensive boards. This is a young but confident team. For the year, Indiana is shooting 49.1 percent from the field, which is fifth in the nation, 43.7 from the 3-point line, second in the country, and 76.3 from the foul line, 11^th. The Hoosiers also average 13.5 assists and have a plus-4.4 rebounding margin.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: Um, well, the Wildcats are not great in the half-court. They’re not always a tremendous shooting team. Teague used to be turnover prone. They have little tournament experience and not a lot of depth. The bottom line, it’s hard to find a lot of weaknesses with Kentucky.

Indiana: The Hoosiers turned the ball over 22 times in the win over VCU – and Kentucky will bring similar pressure. Starting PG Jordy Hulls had five turnovers in 30 minutes. And that wasn’t an anomaly. Indiana averages 13.6 errors per game and allows 6.8 steals. That will be the biggest part of Tom Crean’s gameplan – and John Calipari’s. If Indiana handles UK’s pressure, it has a chance to beat the Wildcats again. If not, it could be a blowout.

The Bottom Line: Kentucky will get its revenge, but as well as Indiana shoots, it’s hard to image it won’t stay within nine points.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Indiana 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Kansas vs NC State: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:22:52 -0400

(2) Kansas vs. (11) North Carolina State: Midwest Region

Records

Kansas 29-6, 16-2 Big 12 (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

North Carolina State 24-12, 9-7 ACC (At large)

Time: 10:17 p.m. Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis

Winner will face: (1) North Carolina or (13) Ohio, Sunday

Tournament Results

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60

N.C. State def. San Diego State, 79-65; def. Georgetown, 66-63

Rankings

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

N.C. State No. 36 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kansas 8

N.C. State 35

Line: Kansas -8 (O/U 141½)

Players to Watch

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.9 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 25 double-doubles); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (17.1 ppg, 4.7 apg, 49.5% FG); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (9.8 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.5 spg). Johnson has been the key to the Jayhawks’ berth in the Sweet 16, particularly with Sunday’s 18-point performance over Purdue. In two NCAA games, Johnson has 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists and three steals.

N.C. State: G Lorenzo Brown, 6-5 So. (12.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.4 rpg); F C.J. Leslie, 6-8 So. (14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 53.1% FG); F Richard Howell, 6-8 Jr. (11.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 51% FG). Brown continues to prove he’s one of the most underappreciated point guards in the country after 29 points, 15 assists, 15 rebounds and three steals during upsets over San Diego State and Georgetown.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kansas: The Robinson-Taylor duo is arguably the best inside-outside combination in the country. The two combine for over 34 points per game. With Johnson playing well, it makes Kansas’s offense, which averages 74.4 points and shoots 48 percent from the field, that much more difficult to defend. The Jayhawks also out-rebound opponents by nearly six per game, including 15 offensive boards in the win over Purdue. Defensively, opponents shoot just 38.1 percent from the field against the Jayhawks.

N.C. State: The Wolfpack can score and play defense. They average 73.3 points per game, make 5.3 3s per contest, average 15.8 assists, hold opponents to 41.7 percent from the field, 33.8 from behind the 3-point line and force 12.4 turnovers per game. N.C. State is athletic and long, and on its good nights, and play with anybody in the country. N.C. State is a good rebounding team with a plus-5.3 rebounding margin and had 15 offensive boards in the win over Georgetown. Led by Brown, the Wolfpack are excellent in transition.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kansas: This Kansas team is less athletic and skilled than Jayhawk teams of the past. They have almost no depth with only seven players averaging more than three minutes per game. The Jayhawk perimeter defense allows opponents to shoot 34.5 percent from behind the arc, and Purdue went 8-for-18 on Sunday. Kansas turns the ball over too much at 13.1 times per contest, allowing opponents to swipe 6.6 steals per game. Kansas sometimes relies on 3-point shooting too often and connect on 35.2 percent behind the arc.

N.C. State: The Pack are inconsistent. They have played their best basketball of late, but they’re capable of really bad games. And when they’re playing poorly, they’re usually turning the ball over. N.C. State averages 12.7 errors per game and has a minus-0.2 turnover margin. The Wolfpack aren’t a great shooting team, hitting 46.3 percent from the floor and 35.8 from behind the 3-point line. Despite their size and athleticism, the Pack scores just 20.2 percent of their points from the foul line, which ranks 172^nd in the country.

The Bottom Line: I like N.C. State’s chances of continuing to advance and I really like the Wolfpack getting eight points.

The Pick: North Carolina State 70, Kansas 69

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Syracuse vs Wisconsin: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:17:07 -0400

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin: East Region

Records

Syracuse 33-2, 17-1, Big East (Regular-season conference champions; At large)

Wisconsin 26-9, 12-6 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: TD Garden in Boston

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (6) Cincinnati, Sunday

Tournament Results

Syracuse def. UNC-Asheville, 72-65; def. Kansas State, 75-59

Wisconsin def. Montana, 73-49; def. Vanderbilt, 60-57

Rankings

Syracuse No. 2 AP; No. 2 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Wisconsin No. 14 AP; No. 13 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Syracuse 1

Wisconsin 15

Line: Syracuse -3½ (O/U 121)

Players to Watch

Syracuse: F Kris Joseph, 6-7 Sr. (13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.3 spg); G Dion Waiters, 6-4 So. (12.7 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.9 spg); G Scoop Jardine, 6-2 Sr. (8.6 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.4 spg). Jardine was spectacular in Saturday’s win, knocking down all three of his 3-point shots, handing out eight assists and grabbing five boards. He was 5-for-9 from the field overall and has 27 points, 15 assists, seven rebounds and three steals through the first two rounds of the tournament.

Wisconsin: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14.7 ppg, 4 apg, 3.8 rpg); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (11.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 apg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.3 ppg, 5 rpg, 35.6% 3s). Evans had a solid all-around game with 11 points, five rebounds and four assists in the win over Vandy. He also had a key rebound and hit a key free throw with 2.1 seconds left to help the Badgers secure their spot in the Sweet 16.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Syracuse: The Orange seemed to find their way without suspended C Fab Melo in the second half of their win against Kansas State. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim seemed to come to the understanding that he’s not going to replace Melo in the middle, so they used smaller lineups to pressure the Wildcat guards and use more of a perimeter offense with sophomore James Southerland more in the mix. Cuse forced 13 turnovers, shot 6-of-9 from behind the 3-point line and Southerland went for 15 points, six rebounds and three blocked shots. The Orange do a lot of things well, including 9.4 steals per game and a 1.49-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio – and no team has better depth than the Orange.

Wisconsin: The Badger defense was incredible all season, and never more so than in Saturday’s win over Vandy. Wisconsin held the Commodores’ talented duo of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor to 22 points combined, nearly 15 points below their combined average. Few teams play better team defense than do the Badgers. They hold opponents to a nation-best 52.9 points per game. Teams have managed to shoot just 38.5 percent from the floor and 28.8 percent from the field, including allowing Vandy – one of the nation’s best 3-point shooting teams – to 5-for-19 from behind the arc. Taylor is one of the nation’s best floor leaders and is a solid go-to option with the game on the line.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Syracuse: Cuse did a nice job rebounding without Melo against a bigger K-State team, but it was still out-boarded 37-31 and allowed the Wildcats 22 offensive rebounds. That could be a big issue against a tough Badger squad. Without Melo, the Orange paint defense is limited, although they held K-State to 21-of-67 shooting on Saturday. They have allowed opponents to get to the foul line 585 times this season, another potential bad sign against Wisconsin, which has shot 563 itself.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have always won with defense, but this year’s Wisconsin team is particularly limited offensively. Even in a Round of 32 win over Vanderbilt, it managed to hit just 23-of-55 shots and 10-of-33 3-pointers. For the season, Wisconsin scores just 64 points per game and has scored 62 points or fewer in 18 of its last 35 games. For the season, the Badgers make just 42.5 percent of their shots from the field. They are also limited athletically. Against one of the nation’s most athletic and quickest teams, that will be a concern.

The Bottom Line: Jardine and Southerland star again as Syracuse pulls away late.

The Pick: Syracuse 69, Wisconsin 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1